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Project Document Project Document GEF Medium-Size Project (MSP) Government of Armenia United Nations Development Programme PIMS 3814 PIMS 3814: Adaptation to Climate Change in Mountain Forest Ecosystems of Armenia Brief description: Armenia’s forest ecosystems have been identified as a global conservation priority inasmuch as they fall under the Caucasus-Anatolian-Hyrcanian Temperate Forests Ecoregion that has been listed by WWF as a Global 200 Ecoregion, and by Conservation International as a biodiversity hotspot. The high level of biodiversity is one of the most important features of the Syunik region in south-eastern Armenia. The region’s ecosystems form part of the eco-corridor of the Eastern Lesser Caucasus that has been identified as a conservation priority by the Ecoregional Conservation Plan for the Caucasus. Recognizing the need to protect the unique biodiversity of this region, the government has established five specially protected areas, and is in the process of establishing three others. This region, however, has also been identified as a critically vulnerable region of the country, especially in terms of the risk posed by climate change to its unique mountain forest ecosystems. This conclusion comes from the first comprehensive vulnerability and adaptation assessment undertaken for Armenia under the aegis of its First and Second National Communications to the UNFCCC. Under the business-as-usual scenario, climate risks will not be taken into account in the forest and biodiversity sector, primarily due to the prevalence of certain key barriers including: planning process that governs management of forest ecosystems does not include the climate change threat as a criterion in decision making; institutions and individuals do not have the technical capacity to observe and forecast adaptive capacity of forests, understand changes in forest species spurred by climate change including impacts on communities reliant on forest resources, identify options for autonomous and planned adaptation, and then to use this information to raise awareness and mobilize programmatic choices regarding protection of forest ecosystems in the face of climate change; there are no concrete experiences with implementing adaptation response measures, which can be leveraged to motivate wide scale acceptance and adoption of such measures. The Government of the Republic of Armenia (GoRA) is, therefore, requesting technical assistance from UNDP with funding from the GEF/ SPA to address these barriers. In addition to the GEF resource, the Government will bring to bear its own resources to achieve a normative situation whereby the forestry and biodiversity sectors in the Syunik region are managed in a way that forest ecosystems are better able to adjust to climate change. The three main outcomes of the project are: (1) The enabling environment for integrating climate change risks into management of forest ecosystems is in place; (2) Forest and protected area management in the Syunik region integrates pilot adaptation measures to enhance adaptive capacity of mountain forest ecosystems; (3) Capacities for adaptive management, monitoring and evaluation, learning, and replication of project lessons are developed. Lessons from the project are expected to be replicated in other mountain forest ecosystems of central and northern Armenia. 1 of 79 Table of Contents SECTION I: Elaboration of the Narrative ..................................................................................................................... 4 PART I – SITUATION Analysis .............................................................................................................................. 4 A – Summary ....................................................................................................................................................... 4 B - Country ownership ......................................................................................................................................... 5 B1. Country Eligibility ............................................................................................................................ 5 B2. Country Drivenness ........................................................................................................................... 5 C – PROGRAM AND POLICY CONFORMITY ............................................................................................... 6 C1. Program Designation and Conformity .............................................................................................. 6 C2. Project Design ................................................................................................................................... 6 Geographical and political context ............................................................................................................. 6 Socio-economic context ............................................................................................................................. 7 Biodiversity context .................................................................................................................................... 8 Water resources context .............................................................................................................................. 9 Climate change context ............................................................................................................................ 11 Current climate variability in the Syunik region .................................................................................. 11 Impact of climate variability on forests and biodiversity in the Syunik region ................................... 15 Projected climate change in the Syunik region .................................................................................... 17 Impact of expected climate change on mountain forest ecosystems in the Syunik region .................. 20 Legislation and policy context .................................................................................................................. 21 Project Baseline ........................................................................................................................................ 23 Anthropogenic threats to biodiversity .................................................................................................. 23 Climate related threats to biodiversity ................................................................................................. 24 Baseline programming ......................................................................................................................... 24 Baseline gaps and barrier analysis ....................................................................................................... 28 PART II – STRATEGY .......................................................................................................................................... 29 A. Alternative GEF Scenario ............................................................................................................................. 29 B. Global environmental benefits of project ...................................................................................................... 34 C. Incremental Costs .......................................................................................................................................... 34 D. Sustainability ................................................................................................................................................. 35 E. Replicability................................................................................................................................................... 35 F. Cost Effectiveness .......................................................................................................................................... 35 G. Stakeholder Analysis and Involvement Plan ................................................................................................. 36 PART III – MANAGEMENT ARRANGMENTS ................................................................................................. 44 A. Project implementation/ execution arrangements .......................................................................................... 44 B. GEF Agency core commitments and linkages ............................................................................................... 44 C. Consultation, Coordination and Collaboration between and among Implementing Agencies, Executing Agencies, and the GEF Secretariat ..................................................................................................................... 45 PART IV – MONITORING AND EVALUATION PLAN .................................................................................... 45 PART V - LEGAL CONTEXT .............................................................................................................................. 46 SECTION II: STRATEGIC RESULTS FRAMEWORK (LOGFRAME) .................................................................. 47 SECTION III: TOTAL BUDGET AND WORK PLAN ............................................................................................. 50 Annexes Annex 1: Biodiversity of the Syunik region ................................................................................................................ 55 Annex 2: Assessment of priority area under the Vulnerability and Adaptation
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