'Axis of Evil'? an Analysis of the Iranian Nuclear Program and American Responses
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Report for Congress Received Through the CRS Web
Order Code RL31339 Report for Congress Received through the CRS Web Iraq: U.S. Efforts to Change the Regime Updated August 16, 2002 Kenneth Katzman Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division Congressional Research Service ˜ The Library of Congress Iraq: U.S. Efforts to Change the Regime Summary In his January 29, 2002 State of the Union message, President Bush characterized Iraq as part of an “axis of evil,” along with Iran and North Korea. The President identified the key threat from Iraq as its development of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), and the potential for Iraq to transfer WMD to the terrorist groups it sponsors. In recent statements, the President and other senior officials have said the United States needs to ensure that Saddam Husayn cannot be positioned to pose a major and imminent threat to U.S. national security. The President’s subsequent statements have left observers with the clear implication that the Administration is leaning toward military action to achieve the ouster of Iraq’s President Saddam Husayn and his Ba’th Party regime, although the President says no decision has been made on the means of achieving regime change. Regime change has been official U.S. policy since October 1998. Even before that, U.S. efforts to oust Saddam have been pursued, with varying degrees of intensity, since the end of the Gulf war in 1991. These efforts primarily involved U.S. backing for opposition groups inside and outside Iraq. According to several experts, past efforts to change the regime floundered because of limited U.S. -
Iran's Foreign Policy Decision Making
Iran’s Foreign Policy Decision Making Visions and Divisions: Prospects for a Reorientation in Iran’s Foreign Policy • Normalizers: Integration of Iran into the International Community • Principalists: No Change in Iran’s International Posture Why we cannot make a conclusive statement on the interplay of these groups? Iran is not like any other states in terms of political system. Higher Level Greater Measure of Power & Control Normal political Struggle with systems have a finding a proper hierarchical Islamofascism definition for Democratic the Iranian Theocracy structures, similar political system to this pyramid Small Amount of Power & Control Negotiated Political Order • President •State • Government & Bureaucracy • Revolutionary Guards •Parastatals • Basij • Foundations (Bonyads) •Supreme • Rahbar’s Office Leader • Quds Force Negotiated Political Order Parastatals State • Suprem e Leader • Iran’s Foreign Policy The Position of the Various Groups Ideological Normalizers Pragmatic Principalists Normalizers Tentative normalizers What Drives Iran’s Regional Policies Five Core Factors Imperial Shiite Legacy Islam Anti Imperialis m Paranoia & Domestic Regime Politics Security Policy of Exporting Revolution What did Khomeini mean by revolutionary export? Khomeini was • Protecting Shiites Iranian equivalent of • Gaining Hegemony in Trotsky the Middle East Anti-Trotsky Camp Formed Idealist in the regime committed to exporting the Pragmatists who said revolution it’s really too much & too soon How did they want to export the revolution and to dominate over the middle east? We don’t fight ourselves The Center for Borderless plan was Security Doctrinal simple Analysis We use proxies The ideal end run and their image of the ideal expansion of the revolution and hegemony Engaging the Masses in the ME Shiite Crescent Building Ideological belt of sympathetic Expanding Shiite governments Regional & political factions in Iraq, Syria, Role&Power Lebanon, and Gulf States It happened because of a number of fortuitous breaks Israel Invasion of Lebanon 1982 Arab U.S. -
Iran: a True Security Dilemma?
1 Iran: A True Security Dilemma? The thesis of this paper is that there is a substantial basis to believe the acquisition of nuclear weapons by the Islamic Republic of Iran need not derail U.S. efforts to obtain its basic security objectives in the Middle East (e.g. the prevention of terrorism, secure corridors for the transportation of oil to global markets and progress on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict). There is no known evidence of a state giving a nuclear capability to a nonstate actor to support its national security. The paper notes that U.S. intervention in Iraq and Afghanistan precipitated Iranian reactions, including development of a nuclear weapons program, which pose challenges for international security. These developments enhance the strength of the Iranian regime against certain threats like the use of conventional military power. Using theories developed by proponents of the school of realism in international relations policy, the paper proceeds to show that the U.S. can still pursue its basic security goals in the region successfully. While nuclear weapons threatening U.S. interests are daunting, counter measures against them and steps to prevent proliferation are not certain to succeed. Parties involved in a conflict normally do not abandon working to secure their interests in tactical or low level actions simply because they face opposition (i.e.Taliban has continued its insurgency in Afghanistan despite U.S. state building efforts.). Accordingly, the U.S. needs to pursue balanced policy objectives in a disciplined manner while trying to mitigate the perceived risks from nuclear proliferation. This more balanced approach should be taken with Islamic Republic of Iran. -
IRAN COUNTRY of ORIGIN INFORMATION (COI) REPORT COI Service
IRAN COUNTRY OF ORIGIN INFORMATION (COI) REPORT COI Service Date 28 June 2011 IRAN JUNE 2011 Contents Preface Latest News EVENTS IN IRAN FROM 14 MAY TO 21 JUNE Useful news sources for further information REPORTS ON IRAN PUBLISHED OR ACCESSED BETWEEN 14 MAY AND 21 JUNE Paragraphs Background Information 1. GEOGRAPHY ............................................................................................................ 1.01 Maps ...................................................................................................................... 1.04 Iran ..................................................................................................................... 1.04 Tehran ................................................................................................................ 1.05 Calendar ................................................................................................................ 1.06 Public holidays ................................................................................................... 1.07 2. ECONOMY ................................................................................................................ 2.01 3. HISTORY .................................................................................................................. 3.01 Pre 1979: Rule of the Shah .................................................................................. 3.01 From 1979 to 1999: Islamic Revolution to first local government elections ... 3.04 From 2000 to 2008: Parliamentary elections -
2003 Iraq War: Intelligence Or Political Failure?
2003 IRAQ WAR: INTELLIGENCE OR POLITICAL FAILURE? A Thesis submitted to the Faculty of The School of Continuing Studies and of The Graduate School of Arts and Sciences in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Liberal Studies By Dione Brunson, B.A. Georgetown University Washington, D.C. April, 2011 DISCLAIMER THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS ACADEMIC RESEARCH PAPER ARE THOSE OF THE AUTHOR AND DO NOT REFLECT THE OFFICIAL POLICIES OR POSITIONS OF THE U.S. GOVERNMENT, DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE, OR THE U.S. INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY. ALL INFORMATION AND SOURCES FOR THIS PAPER WERE DRAWN FROM OPEN SOURCE MATERIALS. ii 2003 IRAQ WAR: INTELLIGENCE OR POLITICAL FAILURE? Dione Brunson, B.A. MALS Mentor: Ralph Nurnberger, Ph.D. ABSTRACT The bold U.S. decision to invade Iraq in 2003 was anchored in intelligence justifications that would later challenge U.S. credibility. Policymakers exhibited unusual bureaucratic and public dependencies on intelligence analysis, so much so that efforts were made to create supporting information. To better understand the amplification of intelligence, the use of data to justify invading Iraq will be explored alongside events leading up to the U.S.-led invasion in 2003. This paper will examine the use of intelligence to invade Iraq as well as broader implications for politicization. It will not examine the justness or ethics of going to war with Iraq but, conclude with the implications of abusing intelligence. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Thank you God for continued wisdom. Thank you Dr. Nurnberger for your patience. iv DEDICATION This work is dedicated to Mom and Dad for their continued support. -
Iraq: Differing Views in the Domestic Policy Debate
Order Code RL31607 Report for Congress Received through the CRS Web Iraq: Differing Views in the Domestic Policy Debate October 16, 2002 name redacted, Meaghan Marshall, name redacted Research Associates Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division name redacted Specialist in National Defense Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division Congressional Research Service ˜ The Library of Congress Iraq: Differing Views in the Domestic Policy Debate Summary The debate over whether, when, and how to prosecute a major U.S. military intervention in Iraq and depose Saddam Hussein is complex, despite a general consensus in Washington that the world would be much better off if Hussein were not in power. Although most U.S. observers, for a variety of reasons, would prefer some degree of allied or U.N. support for military intervention in Iraq, some observers believe that the United States should act unilaterally even without such multilateral support. Some commentators argue for a stronger, more committed version of the current policy approach toward Iraq and leave war as a decision to reach later, only after exhausting additional means of dealing with Hussein’s regime. A number of key questions are raised in this debate, such as: 1) is war on Iraq linked to the war on terrorism and to the Arab-Israeli dispute; 2) what effect will a war against Iraq have on the war against terrorism; 3) are there unintended consequences of warfare, especially in this region of the world; 4) what is the long- term political and financial commitment likely to accompany regime change and possible democratization in this highly divided, ethnically diverse country; 5) what are the international consequences (e.g., to European allies, Russia, and the world community) of any U.S. -
Iraq and Yemen: the New Iranian Proxies? Visit WEB Receive Newsletter
Opinion Document 58/2018 May 17, 2018 Ana Belén Soage* Iraq and Yemen: The new Iranian proxies? Visit WEB Receive Newsletter Iraq and Yemen: The new Iranian proxies? Abstract: Iran projects its influence in the Middle East through what has come to be known as the Axis of Resistance, which includes the Syrian regime, Hizbullah in Lebanon, and Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the Palestinian Territories. Over the last decade, two new forces have often been added to the Iranian-led alliance: the Shiite militias in Iraq and the Yemeni Houthis. The two cases are rather different, however. While there is significant evidence that Iran has invested much in Iraq, its efforts in Yemen appear much more modest. Keywords: Iran; Iraq; Yemen; Hizbullah; Houthis; Hamas; Axis of Resistance; Gulf Cooperation Council; Saudi Arabia. * NOTE: The ideas contained in the Opinion Documents are the responsibility of their authors, without necessarily reflecting the thinking of the IEEE or the Ministry of Defense. Documento de Opinión 58/2018 1 Iraq and Yemen: The new Iranian proxies? Ana Belén Soage Introduction The Islamic Republic of Iran is a revisionist power, dissatisfied with the current regional order in the Middle East and seeking opportunities to alter it. It took advantage of the flawed US response to 9/11 to consolidate its narrative around the theme of the Axis of Resistance, and it continued to intervene in weak states through disgruntled actors with similar anti-Western and anti-Israel rhetoric, whatever their political and religious orientation. The outbreak of the Arab Spring gave a temporary boost to the Iranian narrative but prompted a reaction from the Saudi-led GCC which put the Axis of Resistance on the defensive, notably in Syria. -
Casusluk Faaliyetlerinde Motiflerin İncelenmesi: İran İslam Cumhuriyeti Örneği (1979-2019)
Casusluk Faaliyetlerinde Motiflerin İncelenmesi: İran İslam Cumhuriyeti Örneği (1979-2019) Muhammet Murat TEKEK1 Geliş Tarihi: 03/04/2020 Kabul Tarihi: 09/05/2020 Atıf: TEKEK.,M.Murat, “Casusluk Faaliyetlerinde Motiflerin İncelenmesi: İran İslam Cumhuriyeti Örneği (1979-2019)”, Ortadoğu Etütleri, 12-1 (2020):238-273 Öz: Bu çalışma, İran İslam Cumhuriyeti (İİC) aleyhine, 1979 yılından günümüze, İİC vatandaşlığına sahip olan ve casuslukla suçlanan kişilerin casusluk faaliyetini gerçekleştirmekteki motifleri (Motivasyon, Güdü, Saik, İtki) ile bu motiflerin şekillendiği arka planın, açık kaynaklar üzerinden, incelenmesine odaklanmıştır. Toplanan nitel verilerin incelenmesinden elde edilen bulgulardan motifler belirlenmiş ve bunlar çalışmanın sonunda bir sınıflandırmaya tabi tutularak genellemeler yapılmıştır. Sözkonusu sınıflandırma, ABD (Amerika Birleşik Devletleri) ölçeğinde yapılan mevcut bir çalışma ile karşılaştırmalı analize tabi tutulmuştur. Ayrıca casusluk faaliyetlerinin İİC tarafından nasıl tanımlandığı, yorumlandığı, ilgili mevzuatlarla hangi müeyyidelerin getirildiği, casuslukla nasıl mücadele edildiğini belirlemeyi ve tüm bunlara karşın casusluk faaliyetlerinde bulunan veya casuslukla suçlanan kişilerin motivasyonlarının neler olduğunu tespit etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Anahtar Kelimeler: İran, Casusluk, Motif, Çifte Vatandaşlık, Yumuşak Yıkım 1 YL Öğrencisi, Polis Akademisi-TR, [email protected], ORCID:0000-0002-8985-4760 238 Analysis of Motives in Spy Activities: The Example of Islamic Republic of Iran (1979-2019) Muhammet Murat -
The Bush Revolution: the Remaking of America's Foreign Policy
The Bush Revolution: The Remaking of America’s Foreign Policy Ivo H. Daalder and James M. Lindsay The Brookings Institution April 2003 George W. Bush campaigned for the presidency on the promise of a “humble” foreign policy that would avoid his predecessor’s mistake in “overcommitting our military around the world.”1 During his first seven months as president he focused his attention primarily on domestic affairs. That all changed over the succeeding twenty months. The United States waged wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. U.S. troops went to Georgia, the Philippines, and Yemen to help those governments defeat terrorist groups operating on their soil. Rather than cheering American humility, people and governments around the world denounced American arrogance. Critics complained that the motto of the United States had become oderint dum metuant—Let them hate as long as they fear. September 11 explains why foreign policy became the consuming passion of Bush’s presidency. Once commercial jetliners plowed into the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, it is unimaginable that foreign policy wouldn’t have become the overriding priority of any American president. Still, the terrorist attacks by themselves don’t explain why Bush chose to respond as he did. Few Americans and even fewer foreigners thought in the fall of 2001 that attacks organized by Islamic extremists seeking to restore the caliphate would culminate in a war to overthrow the secular tyrant Saddam Hussein in Iraq. Yet the path from the smoking ruins in New York City and Northern Virginia to the battle of Baghdad was not the case of a White House cynically manipulating a historic catastrophe to carry out a pre-planned agenda. -
Terrorism and Global Mobility
U.S. Versus Them The effects of the September 11 attacks on migration policy in the United States and how this has influenced visa issuances to migrants from Muslim-majority countries in particular Anke van Gils Bachelor Thesis Geography, Planning and Environment (GPE) Nijmegen School of I Management Radboud University Nijmegen July 2020 U.S. Versus Them The effects of the September 11 attacks on migration policy in the United States and how this has influenced visa issuances to migrants from Muslim-majority countries in particular Author Anke van Gils Student Number S1003915 Supervisor Prof. Dr. Henk van Houtum Bachelor Thesis Geography, Planning and Environment (GPE) Nijmegen School of Management Radboud University Nijmegen July 2020 II Summary This Bachelor’s thesis focusses on the impacts of the September 11 attacks on visa issuances to migrants from Muslim-majority countries, in comparison to those to migrants from other countries. Since post-9/11 political and media discourse have influenced the general view of Muslims toward a more negative image, one might expect that this has also had a restrictive influence on visa issuances to migrants from Muslim-majority countries. The purpose of this thesis is therefore to find out whether migration policies have indeed become more restrictive for Muslim migrants in particular, and whether we see this impact in a larger decrease in issuances to migrants from this category, as compared to other migrants. To answer this, various methods have been used. First, a general literature framework was established through examining existing literature on how foreign policies are being developed, how these have affected global mobility over the years, and on how framing and securitization processes can affect these policy developments. -
USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal #870
USAF COUNTERPROLIFERATION CENTER CPC OUTREACH JOURNAL Maxwell AFB, Alabama Issue No. 870, 7 January 2011 Articles & Other Documents: White House Contradicts Russian Duma Official on China Will Not Strike First with Nuclear Weapons: FM Linkage Between Missile Defense and START China Hiding Military Build-Up: Cable Arms Treaty Would Not Affect Nuke Plans, Russia Says India to Test High-Altitude Missiles Soon Russian Parliament Drafts Five Amendments to New Arms Pact India Wants to Extend Range of Nuke-Capable Missile Senior Russian MP Says New Start Better for Russia Russian Missile Defense than U.S. Flirting with Disaster Iranian Nuclear Scientist 'Tortured on Suspicion of Revealing State Secrets' Nuclear Detection Office Delivers Strategic Plan to Capitol Hill U.S. Memo: Iranian Hard-Liners Blocked Nuke Deal Why China‘s Missiles Matter to Us Iran Vows to Boost Missile Arsenal Washington Watch: Does Ahmadinejad Have a Saddam Mossad Chief: Iran Won't Go Nuclear Before 2015 Complex? EU to Turn Down Iran's Invitation to Nuclear Sites Raging Conflicts China Military Eyes Preemptive Nuclear Attack in Event US Has Always Treated Pakistan Unfairly of Crisis Welcome to the CPC Outreach Journal. As part of USAF Counterproliferation Center’s mission to counter weapons of mass destruction through education and research, we’re providing our government and civilian community a source for timely counterproliferation information. This information includes articles, papers and other documents addressing issues pertinent to US military response options for dealing with chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) threats and countermeasures. It’s our hope this information resource will help enhance your counterproliferation issue awareness. -
Iran's Foreign and Defense Policies
Iran’s Foreign and Defense Policies Updated May 8, 2019 Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov R44017 SUMMARY R44017 Iran’s Foreign and Defense Policies May 8, 2019 Iran’s national security policy is the product of many overlapping and sometimes competing factors such as the ideology of Iran’s Islamic revolution, perception of threats Kenneth Katzman to the regime and to the country, long-standing national interests, and the interaction of Specialist in Middle the Iranian regime’s factions and constituencies. Iran’s leadership: Eastern Affairs x Seeks to deter or thwart U.S. or other efforts to invade or intimidate Iran or to bring about a change of regime. x Has sought to take advantage of opportunities of regional conflicts to overturn a power structure in the Middle East that it asserts favors the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other Sunni Muslim Arab regimes. x Seeks to enhance its international prestige and restore a sense of “greatness” reminiscent of ancient Persian empires. x Advances its foreign policy goals, in part by providing material support to regional allied governments and armed factions. Iranian officials characterize the support as helping the region’s “oppressed” and assert that Saudi Arabia, in particular, is instigating sectarian tensions and trying to exclude Iran from regional affairs. x Sometimes disagrees on tactics and strategies. Supreme Leader Ali Khamene’i and key hardline institutions, such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), oppose any compromises of Iran’s national security core goals. Iran’s elected president, Hassan Rouhani, and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif support Iran’s integration into regional and international diplomacy.