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The 10 Most Important News of the International Money Transfer

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The 10 Most Important News of the International Money Transfer The 10 Most Important News of the TOP International Money Transfer Industry for 2014 Hugo Cuevas-Mohr Mohr World Consulting As I did for 2013, I have put together the 10 most important news stories for the Money Transfer Industry in 2014, as a way to reflect back and at the same time analyze the trends for the coming year. They are not necessarily in order of importance. They are based on my personal opinions and ideas from friends and colleagues in the industry. If I miss something of importance or if you have any type of comment, please do it in LinkedIn. Click Hyperlinks to see more info. Volume of Money Transfers continue on the rise. The estimated global remittance 1 volume will be close to US$580 B in 2014 and rise above US$600 B in 2015. Volume to developing countries are rising globally by 4.4% to reach US$454 B in 2015. Bank Discontinuance and De-Risking took new heights with more bank account 2 closures in the US, Australia and other countries prompting responses and statements from the World Bank, US regulators and other agencies. The cost of remittances continues as a major objective of multilateral agencies such 3 as the World Bank and its influence in the G20 agenda while more governments discuss the idea of taxing remittances. It’s all politics? Telcos on the move. With still major regulatory and technological hurdles to 4 overcome and many partnerships and cost structures to be agreed upon, mobile wallets to be tested, Telcos are moving ahead with money transfers. Online Remittances are disrupting the traditional agent-based ecosystem as more 5 clients look for these alternatives and every major MTO in the world increases its online channel developments. Are we finally seeing the shift? Mobile Remittances on the rise with every online money transfer provider hastily 6 rolling out their mobile solutions with a good response from new and existing clients while mobile-only service providers get funding and forge ahead. US Regulator moves forward and fines the first Compliance Officer of a major 7 Money Transfer Operator (MTO) sending chills throughout the industry. Some say US Regulators needed a “sacrificial lamb” and quite a few have deemed it unfair. The performance of Public Traded Money Transfer Companies has been a concern 8 of many analysts that watch the payment industry closely. It hasn’t been a good year for the two major MTOs due to competition for market share & lower pricing. Is Remittances the best driver for financial inclusion? As the concept of inclusion 9 changes, as some banks develop agent-based networks and as mobile access to financial services widens, will remittances take a driver seat? Is Bitcoin as a remittance tool ready to pick up steam? We have seen a year full of 10 regulatory discussions on cryptocurrencies, growth of the blockchain ecosystem and the emerging of firms devoted to Bitcoin & Remittances. © 2014 - Mohr World Consulting – www.mohrworld.info You can use this top 10 list, post it, blog it, as long as you cite the author and the source 1 In October 2014, the World Bank published its Migration and Development Brief 23 in 1 which it estimated that the officially recorded global remittance flows are expected to rise from US$582 billion in 2014 to US$608 billion in 2015. The remittance flows to developing countries are projected to reach US$435 billion in 2014, 5% percent higher than 2013 but the growth will moderate to 4.4% in 2015, raising flows to US$454 billion. This outlook is based largely on lower projected GDP growth rates in key remittance-sending countries and you can read the Brief - http://bit.ly/ZrysYa - to understand the point of view of the Migration and Remittances Team at the World Bank. As far as inflow volumes to the major remittance receiving countries, India may reach US$71 billion in 2014. India has the largest emigrant population with over 14 million people born in India living abroad in 2013. China follows with US$64 billion, then the Philippines with US$28 billion, Mexico US$24 billion, Nigeria US$21 billion and then Egypt, Pakistan and Bangladesh (US$15 to 18 billion). It is important to remember that remittances are a relatively small share of GDP for these countries: 3.7% of GDP for India in 2013 while it is 42% for Tajikistan, 32% for the Kyrgyz Republic, and 29% for Nepal. Oil prices are an important factor in remittance flows from the Gulf Region and Russia, so we don’t know yet how remittance volumes will decrease from these countries (plus the effect of the slowing Russian economy due to international sanctions that will further decrease Russian outflows while increasing the inflows). The Syrian crisis is reshaping the remittance industry in the neighboring countries. TOP ↑ Bank Discontinuance and De-Risking was all over the news this year with bank account 2 closures in the United States hurting the Money Transfer Industry deeply. Some might say that this was part of the “unintended consequences” of Operation “Choke Point” which was aimed basically at the US payday lending industry (http://bit.ly/1wB2pCT). The close of Bank Accounts in the US of foreign MSBs and other financial institutions (including small Banks) by large commercial banks in the US – and the pressure of those US Banks for banks in other countries to close MSB accounts, has made the situation extremely difficult for the survival of a number of MSBs and MTOs. All of these situations prompted a number of articles and speeches from regulators. The remarks of Jennifer Shasky Calvery, Director of FINCEN in August 2014, tried to persuade Banks to go case by case: “Just because a particular customer may be considered high risk does not mean that it is “unbankable” and it certainly does not make an entire category of customer unbankable.” (http://bit.ly/1DZhyTt). The remarks of Under Secretary Cohen of the US Treasury on November 2014 , (http://1.usa.gov/1v3IaP3 ) caused some discomfort when he stated that there was “no consensus that a serious “de-risking” trend is underway”. The US Treasury will hold a Roundtable Discussion on Financial Access for MSBs on January 13th that we hope the Money Transfer industry will attend (http://1.usa.gov/1vsUtyj ). The situation is more critical now in Australia. Small and medium sized companies in the country are being forced to shut down because all of the major banks have been closing their accounts and letters of discontinuance were sent to the 5,000+ MTOs in the country. It seems that the discontinuance was based largely on the terrorist links of Bisotel Rieh, a money transfer company linked to Syria & Lebanon. MTOs in Australia have formed ARPAC (Australian Remittance and Currency Providers Association) to fight for the industry survival and a class action against Westpac Bank is in motion. TOP ↑ © 2014 - Mohr World Consulting – www.mohrworld.info You can use this top 10 list, post it, blog it, as long as you cite the author and the source 3 The cost of remittances continues as a major objective of multilateral agencies such as the World Bank and its influence over the G20 agenda. The Remittance Prices Worldwide (RPW) database of the World Bank Payment Systems Development Group continuously monitors remittance costs in several corridors. It reported that the cost of sending money has continued to fall in 2014 with the global average total falling from 8.9% in 3Q 2013 to 7.9% in 3Q 2014. When the weighted average was considered (weighted by the size of bilateral remittance flows) the cost fell from 6.6% in 3Q 2013 to 5.7% in 3Q 2014. The World Bank also stated in the October 2014 Brief - http://bit.ly/ZrysYa - that smaller remittance markets are also becoming increasingly contested, as mobile operators enter the market and new online services are being offered. We all know that compliance and regulatory costs are preventing the decrease of the cost of remittances as companies increase their spending in these areas. Bank Discontinuance are hurting competition, easing the pressure to the major MTOs to lower prices. At the same time that the G20 made announcements that the group would continue insisitng on the lowering of remittance costs. Interestingly enough some of its more vocal members are imposing taxes on remittances, such as India. Other countries are taxing remittances too while the US Congress is planning to discuss a new law to require a fee on remittances for customers that cannot prove that they are in the US legally using the funds collected to enhance US border security, all a by-product of US politics over migration. UK politicians are now denouncing “rip-off remittance fees” with the signing of petitions to “allow proper competition” and “boost tech entrepreneurship” to lower costs (http://ow.ly/Gg4Ga). It is important that I mention that competition in pricing has indeed hurt the performance of the two major MTOs (see #8) TOP ↑ Telcos on the move. The mobile penetrations rates in the developing world, and the 4 success of MNOs providing money transfer services in a number of markets, are challenging banks and MTOs. In October, this issue prompted me to publish a document entitled Are Telcos, Money Transfer Companies (MTOs) and Banks on a collision course over remittances? which was discussed at IMTC WORLD 2014 in Miami Beach and you can download it here: http://bit.ly/1r1psE8 if you haven’t already done so. There are still major regulatory and technological hurdles to be overcome and many partnerships and cost structures to be agreed upon, as well as mobile wallets to be tested and fully utilized by customers.
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