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Casting a Wider Net Over China's Total Debt INTdirector Issue 79 | AUTUMN 2016 companydirectors.com.au INSIDE 2 International Manager's corner 3 Casting a wider net over China’s total debt (continued from page 1) 4 Diversity – broader than you think 5 International director profile: Trent Hagland 6 International long standing member profile: Diana Fox 7 Taking Margaret River wines to the world 8 Event summaries 10 Welcome new members 11 Longstanding members Casting a wider net 11 Congratulating international graduates over China’s total debt 12 2016 Diary Dates assets, but excludes newer developments such as P2P lending (due to a lack of suitable Gerard Burg data). Broad measures increase the likelihood Senior Economist of double counting – some observers argue National Australia Bank that WMPs are a funding source for shadow One of the key concerns for China’s economy banking, rather than a component of the in 2016 is its debt. Debt levels have risen sector, therefore we’ve excluded it from our sharply since the Global Financial Crisis, broader debt calculation. Our estimate of particularly outside the traditional banking shadow banking (excluding WMPs) stood at system – where the scale of borrowings is around 95% of GDP in December 2015. International Division, frequently under-estimated. We’ve dug deeper Compared with high levels in other PO Box Z5333, St Georges Terrace, Perth WA 6831 into the China’s debt, to provide a little more countries, China’s government debt is t: +61 8 9320 1700 f: +61 8 9320 1722 transparency around a very opaque picture. relatively modest at 39% of GDP in December e: [email protected] 2015. However, this may not paint a complete Editor: Pauline Nguyen Newsletter written by: International It’s impossible to put a firm figure on China’s Division. For more information or to submit content, contact us. total debt levels – at best we can produce picture of government debt, with local Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in INT Director do not necessarily represent the views of the Australian Institute of an estimate with a series of caveats – which government bonds comprising just over 7% Company Directors nor the publication. While every effort has reflect the importance (and opacity) of non- of GDP in this measure. The National Audit been made to ensure accuracy, no responsibility can be accepted by the publisher for omissions, typographical or traditional financing in China’s economy over Office reported that local government debt in printer’s errors, inaccuracies or changes that may have taken the past few years. Estimates of the scale China was around 31% of GDP in mid-2013 place after the publication. All rights reserved. of shadow banking vary widely, with a lack (the most recent available data), comprising a of consensus among observers as to what mix of bank loans, bonds, shadow finance and WE ARE PLEASED TO ACKNOWLEDGE NATIONAL should be included in this measure. We favour other sources. Some of these elements may be AUSTRALIA BANK AS OUR MAJOR EVENT SPONSOR a broad measure, based on research by the captured within traditional banking measures, Institute for International Monetary Affairs, but it is impossible to be sure, highlighting the that includes wealth management products uncertainty around overall debt estimates. (WMPs) and trust investment in financial continued on page 3 International Division, PO Box Z5333, St Georges Terrace, Perth WA 6831 t:+61 8 9320 1700 f:+61 8 9320 1722 e:[email protected] 1 INTdirector | AUTUMN 2016 INTERNATIONAL MANAGER’S Responsibilities. CORNER Liabilities. Risk. You can't afford to lose them in translation Further your director career, better address risk, enhance Suzanne Ardagh MAICD International Division Manager board strategy, and improve your organisations performance. International Company Welcome to our Autumn Newsletter. Directors Course As you cast your eyes over page 10 in this quarterly newsletter 6 to 10 June 2016, you’ll be interested to see the very long list of new members this Sydney month which reflects our very diverse membership base. 5 to 9 September 2016, As the fastest growing division, I’m pleased to say that our Hong Kong Membership Relations Team, headed up by Stuart Munro has done a fantastic job over the past year – reaching his full year budget in 14 to 18 November 2016, March 2016. We are pleased to welcome new members from many Singapore countries including Nigeria, Qatar, the Dominion Republic, Russia and Sweden. Another one of our members has recently moved to Enrol now the Federated States of Micronesia. This tiny collection of islands w: companydirectors.com.au/ICDC is located near Guam, so you can see that the Australian Institute of Company Directors (AICD) is spread far and wide. Singapore Committee We are constantly talking to members and giving them information about how they can collect their DPD points – so Neil Parekh MAICD Tay Woon Teck MAICD we have included a section just to remind and help our members National Australia Bank RSM Ethos Pte Ltd make sure they are up to date on their points. Penny Burtt MAICD Nicki Kenyon MAICD Visa Worldwide Pte Limited Visa Inc. Our International team, based in Perth, is always looking for Christopher Chong FAICD Carolyn Chin-Parry MAICD interesting stories and content to share, so if you have a desire to ACH Investments SMS Management & Technology contribute to our newsletter and have something interesting to share with your fellow international members, please think about writing an article. Up to 800 words is welcome and you can earn Hong Kong Committee five DPD points as well – so that’s worth the effort! Garry Willinge FAICD Angelina Kwan MAICD Cbridge Limited (Hong Kong) Hong Kong Exchanges Some other news to share from the International Division, which and Clearing Limited is “hot off the press”. We were delighted to sign an MOU with the Pru Bennett MAICD BlackRock Kym Fortescue GAICD Malaysian Academy of Directors in Kuala Lumpur on 17 May 2016. AIA GROUP Kathryn Dioth GAICD Known as MINDA, the organisation has relaunched and now The Hinrich Foundation Fiona Nott GAICD Aesop Ltd (Hong Kong) is a full service organisation for Directors. We’ve formalised a Simone Wheeler GAICD very collaborative relationship with this organisation which, was CLSA John Spence FAICD Asian Capital Advisors established in 2006, initially to provide training and professional Simon Clarke MAICD development to GLCs (government companies in Malaysia), but Allen & Overy Andrew Tsui MAICD Korn Ferry who now have opened their door to private sector. As part of the Andrew MacIntosh GAICD MOU, AICD will host a delegation of Malaysian directors who Hanhong Private Equity (Hong Kong) will come to Perth in August this year to complete one of our international programs. We are very pleased with this first MOU International contacts and hope that there will be more to come! Some photos from the event will be included in the next International newsletter. Suzanne Ardagh maicd Rachel Hogan International Division Manager International Bye for now. t: +61 8 9320 1700 Program Executive e: [email protected] t: +61 8 9320 1718 Suzanne e: [email protected] Stuart Munro International Member Relations Pauline Nguyen Executive International Team Coordinator t: +61 8 9320 1709 t: +61 8 9320 1716 e: [email protected] e: [email protected] 2 INTdirector | AUTUMN 2016 Casting a wider net over China’s total debt continued from page 1 Combining bank loans, shadow a lack of credit worthiness, wider estimate of total credit – In this regard, the announced banking, government bonds and rather than financial prudence. with debt growing over three employment cuts across a range corporate bonds provides us with An assessment of the quality of times the rate of nominal GDP of heavy industries may show a a wider estimate of China’s total debt depends on the use of the in December 2015 (approaching greater appetite for SOE reform debt – which stood at 308% of funding and the ability of the the emergency levels seen than previously. GDP in December 2015. Given borrower to service the debt. At during the GFC). Chinese policy makers are the exclusion of WMPs and an aggregate level, this can be There is little doubt that credit facing a significant dilemma newer products such as P2P approximated by comparing the has been used less efficiently regarding the country’s debt. loans, this estimate may err on ratio of nominal credit growth since the GFC. The infrastructure They can no longer afford to the conservative side. to nominal GDP growth. While investment boom used to ward allow debt to grow unchecked For some time it has been there are typically significant off the crisis led to wasteful – as this would increase the argued that the scale of China’s lags between investment and projects – with examples of likelihood of a major financial debt was less concerning that returns, similar rates of growth under-utilised high-speed rail and crisis and the potential for a hard the rate of its growth, but this for credit and GDP (or a credit airports – however more recently landing. On the other side, real position now appears more intensity close to one) tends to concerns likely lie in the business economic growth is unlikely to difficult to argue – with our indicate effective use of debt sector. Some lending to large be sustainable at the new five estimate of China’s debt above – as was the case between mid- SOEs is used to roll over existing year plan target (6.5%) without the average level of advanced 2004 and late 2008. debts, or continue funding growth in debt – bringing down economies (according to the Bank From late 2011, this ratio has uneconomic operation.
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