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California Facing Multi-Billion-Dollar Losses from Wildfires

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California Facing Multi-Billion-Dollar Losses from Wildfires California facing multi-billion-dollar losses from wildfires A series of major wildfires burned across Northern and Southern California, as powerful offshore winds – known as Santa Ana winds in the south and Diablo winds in the north – helped spawn the blazes. Downsloping winds off the Coast Range and Sierra Nevada mountains were critical in the fire ignition process. The most catastrophic fire was the Camp Fire in Butte County, where the city of Paradise was largely destroyed. CalFire cited that 6,453 homes and 260 businesses were destroyed, making the Camp Fire the most destructive on record in California. The fire also left 29 people dead and many others unaccounted for; equaling as the deadliest fire on record in the state. Additionally, the Woolsey Fire destroyed at least 177 homes and left two people dead in Ventura and Los Angeles counties. The aggregate cost of the fires is expected to result in a multi-billion-dollar payout for the insurance industry. Meteorological Recap The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and National Weather Service (NWS) offices in initially California declared “Extremely Critical” and “Critical” fire conditions across parts of Northern and Southern California on November 8 and November 9. The local agencies noted the arrival of a strong and broad offshore wind flow that would dramatically increase the probability of strong winds across the higher terrain and foothill areas of Los Angeles, Ventura, and Orange and Riverside counties in Southern California and into the Sierra and southern Sacramento Valley regions of Northern California. The Santa Ana and Diablo wind events were triggered by a strong ridge of high pressure that established across parts of Idaho on November 7 and eventually shifted eastward into much of the Great Basin on November 8. As this occurred, it enhanced the risk of fire ignition given extremely dry conditions in place across the state and abundant available fuel to burn. See the graphic above. In parts of Northern California, soil moisture levels were extremely low due to minimal rainfall since the summer. These conditions led to many parts of the state with an Energy Release Component (ERC) value minimally in the 90th percentile or above. ERC is an index that evaluates composite fuel moisture values in relation to all live and dead fuels (vegetation) and their potential fire intensity if burned. As moisture levels in both live and dead vegetation goes down, more fuel becomes available to a fire in that area. More fuel burning results in more heat being released. This drying pattern and extreme fire potential was seen across Northern California. During the early morning hours on November 8, winds blowing out of the northeast gusted as high as 55 mph (90 kph) that severely enhanced the fire risk across much of California. These gusty winds – in combination with very low humidity levels and dry soils Index evaluating fire & heat intensity potential – allowed for multiple fires to be ignited. (Source: Northwest Climate Toolbox) The most significant fire to ignite was in Butte County, California near the city of Paradise in Northern California. According to Cal Fire, the Camp Fire officially started at 6:29 AM local time on November 8 at Camp Creek Road near Pulga and quickly shifted westward towards Paradise. Data from the National Weather Service (NWS) indicated that while temperatures were in the upper 40s (F), relative humidity levels hovered near 20 percent and winds had gusted above 50 mph (80 kph) in a direction from the northeast and north-northeast – signifying a strong Diablo wind event. After igniting, the fire rapidly spread across 20,000 acres (8,093 hectares) in a matter of hours through Paradise and surrounding areas. In just 24 hours’ time, CalFire officials noted that the Camp Fire had charred 70,000 acres (28,327 hectares). Later on November 8, multiple fires were additionally ignited in Southern California. At 2:30 PM local time in Ventura County, the Woolsey Fire erupted with the SPC noting extremely critical fire conditions in place. As moderate Santa Ana wind conditions persisted, along with abundant vegetative fuel available to burn, this led to explosive spread in burn coverage. The blaze also burned 70,000 acres (28,327 hectares) in roughly 24-36 hours’ time. During the explosive growth of the fire coverage, it rapidly approached areas near the city of Malibu. Another fire – the Hill Fire – was also ignited on November 8. That fire began at 2:00 PM local time in Ventura County before quickly burning 4,531 acres (1,833 hectares) of land. Daily “Fire Weather Outlooks” from November 7-12 (Source: NOAA) Cat Alert: California Wildfires (Information as of 11:00 PM Central Time, November 11, 2018 (05:00 UTC November 12)) 2 By November 10 and November 11, the SPC noted that conditions were again becoming highly conducive for even more powerful offshore wind flow across both Northern and Southern California. An amplifying upper-level frontal boundary along the coastline began interacting with a surface ridge of high pressure located to the northeast. This interaction led to a strong pressure gradient to develop across California; the tighter the pressure gradient, the more intense winds. The SPC cited “critically low relative humidity and dry fuels” would allow for conditions favorable for rapid fire spread/growth in multiple locations in the state. Such conditions were ideal for a Santa Ana wind event in Southern California and a dry, downsloping flow along the Coast Range and the Sierra Nevada mountains to develop. These conditions allowed for the Camp, Woolsey, and Hill fires to further spread during the period from November 10-11. The SPC forecasts continued extremely critical fire conditions to persist through November 13. Background: Fire Ignition Timeframe Below is a table indicating fire ignition dates, times and damage of the most significant fires from this event. Data comes via Cal Fire: Fire Name Fire Start Date Fire Start Time Fire Start County Structures (Destroyed) Structures (Damaged) Camp Fire 6:29 AM November 8 Butte 6,713 0 Woolsey Fire 2:30 PM November 8 Ventura 177 2 Hill Fire 2:00 PM November 8 Ventura 2 2 Background Weather Data A significant dearth of rainfall has affected much of California since the start of the current water year (beginning on October 1, 2018), and even prior to that time. Most areas have recorded less than five percent of the normal rainfall during this period. The extreme lack of precipitation aided in causing the tremendous amounts of dead vegetation to provide ample fuel for new wildfires to consume.. As the Santa Ana, Diablo and offshore/downsloped winds established on November 8, the lack of recent rainfall and extensive dry vegetation and brush combined to create extremely conducive conditions for a major outbreak of wildfires. The graphics below show current precipitation values in context with a normal timeframe. LEFT (2018/19 Water Year % Normal Precipitation) / RIGHT (Rainfall % Normal Since May 11, 2018) Cat Alert: California Wildfires (Information as of 11:00 PM Central Time, November 11, 2018 (05:00 UTC November 12)) 3 Beyond a lack of precipitation across much of California, the last 60 days since the approximate start of Fall has seen anomalously warm temperatures. As noted on the graphic to the left, areas with some of the warmest average daily temperatures are currently coping with wildfires. This includes the Camp, Woolsey, and Hill fires. The combination of warmer temperatures and less precipitation at the start of the typical “wet” season for California has resulted more time for vegetation to dry out and be vulnerable. Dry Fall months are particularly risky since summer-like vegetation dryness persists longer into "offshore wind" season. Santa Ana Winds vs. Diablo Winds Both “Santa Ana” winds and “Diablo” winds are caused by nearly identical meteorological conditions. The only difference is that the wind pattern is known as “Santa Ana” in Southern California and “Diablo” in Northern California. Northern California high wind and fire events are also highly susceptible to strong downsloping winds from the Coast Range and Sierra Nevada mountains. Santa Ana wind events are typically most comment between the months of September and April, and the average duration is roughly two days. The continuation of Santa Ana conditions in Southern California lasting for nearly a week is anomalous. Separately, Diablo wind events are most common during the Spring and Fall months, though these events are most dangerous during the Fall months due to much drier vegetation. Source: WeatherFlow.com Cat Alert: California Wildfires (Information as of 11:00 PM Central Time, November 11, 2018 (05:00 UTC November 12)) 4 Damage Details Camp Fire The Camp Fire was officially deemed the most destructive and deadliest wildfire on record in California. Ignited during the morning hours on November 8, the fire achieved its name after having begun near Camp Creek Road in Butte County. Most of the event’s damage was incurred during the first 48 hours (November 8-9) as the blaze quickly exploded in size and scope, which included catastrophic damage in the town of Paradise. As the fire rapidly spread, state and county officials ordered the evacuation of Paradise, Magalia, Concow, Butte Creek Canyon, and Butte Valley given the intensity of the fire and its consumption of lots of available vegetative fuel. In total, an estimated 52,000 people evacuated. As of 7:00 PM local time on November 11, the Camp Fire had charred 111,000 acres (44,900 hectares) of land across Butte County. Containment was listed at 25 percent. The fire had officially left 29 people dead and injured three firefighters. Fire officials noted that as many as 228 people remained unaccounted for as search and rescue operations continued.
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