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F5ff930-6 Zacks Small-Cap Research Tim Moore, CFA 312-265-9237 Sponsored – Impartial - Comprehensive Tmoore@Zacks.Com August 11, 2021 F5fF930-6 Zacks Small-Cap Research Tim Moore, CFA 312-265-9237 Sponsored – Impartial - Comprehensive [email protected] Sponsored – Impartial - Comprehensive scr.zacks.com 10 S. Riverside Plaza, Chicago, IL 60606 Yatra Online, Inc. (YTRA-NASDAQ) YTRA: Initiating Coverage – Market Share & OUTLOOK Platform Advantages to Accelerate Topline Growth as Pre-Pandemic Behavior Returns We are initiating coverage of Yatra Online (YTRA) with a $4.25 price target valuation. 2 Yatra Online, Inc. is the parent company of India’s leading independent Corporate Travel provider. It is Based on 10% discount to the industry average of also a top Leisure travelers OTA (Online Travel 3.2x EV/Sales 2022 on our Sales estimate, we Agency) in India. Their mobile applications, website believe the stock could be worth $4.25 per share. and corporate SaaS platform provide unique advantages for airfare ticketing and hotel bookings. Encouraging initial signs of recovery for travel are emerging for late 2021. We estimate positive Current Price (8/10/21) $1.92 adjusted EBITDA profitability could be reached in Valuation $4.25 calendar 2022. If so, a re-rating should occur. SUMMARY DATA 52-Week High $2.92 Risk Level Above Average 52-Week Low $0.55 Type of Stock Small-Growth One-Year Return (%) 172 Industry Internet-Services Beta 1.66 Average Daily Volume (sh) 300,399 ZACKS ESTIMATES Shares Outstanding (mil) 62 Market Capitalization ($mil) $119 Revenue (Adjusted in millions $ USD, fiscal year-end March) Short Interest Ratio (days) 1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year Institutional Ownership (%) 57 Insider Ownership (%) 5 (Jun) (Sep) (Dec) (Mar) (Mar) 2021 3.1 A 5.1 A 8.3 A 13.3 A 29.9 A Annual Cash Dividend $0.00 2022 8.0 E 9.4 E 12.8 E 17.2 E 47.4 E Dividend Yield (%) 0.00 2023 16.1 E 18.3 E 21.7 E 26.8 E 82.9 E 2024 121.4 E 5-Yr. Historical Growth Rates EPS (Non-GAAP) Sales (%) -30.6 (Adjusted in $ USD, fiscal year-end March) Earnings Per Share (%) N/A Dividend (%) N/A Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year (Jun) (Sep) (Dec) (Mar) (Mar) P/E using TTM EPS N/A 2021 -$0.13 A -$0.06 A -$0.04 A -$0.06 A -$0.29 A P/E using 2021 Estimate N/A 2022 -$0.08 E -$0.08 E -$0.06 E -$0.05 E -$0.27 E 2023 P/E using 2022 Estimate -28x -$0.01 E -$0.01 E $0.00 E $0.01 E -$0.01 E 2024 $0.11 E P/E using 2023 Estimate 21x Zacks Projected EPS Growth Rate - Next 5 Years % N/A © Copyright 2021, Zacks Investment Research. All Rights Reserved. INITIATION OF COVERAGE & KEY POINTS We initiate coverage of Yatra Online, Inc. (YTRA) with a valuation price target of $4.25 per share. Yatra Online, Inc. is the parent company of India’s leading independent corporate travel provider. It is also the #2 or #3 Leisure OTA (Online Travel Agency) for consumer travelers in India. Yatra focuses on travel, leisure and tourism bookings through a combination of B2C, B2B and B2B2C. The company’s mobile applications, website, corporate SaaS platform and call centers provide unique advantages for airfare ticketing, hotel bookings and activities. Its platform is easy to integrate with end-users. “Yatra” means a journey, trip, tour or pilgrimage in the national language of India. Headquartered in India. March-end fiscal year. IFRS accounting. Yatra has distinct ecosystem advantages including its technology platform, leading independent #1 market share for business travel in India, access to the largest hotel network within India for bookings and as the #2 or # 3 leisure OTA India. Yatra has over 700 corporate clients (employing more than 5 million people). The company provides access to bookings through its platform to 94,000 hotels and homestays in 1,400 cities. Yatra Online offers 350 holiday vacation packages & 450 activities including sightseeing, tours and shows. One-stop shop for travel needs. Brand is well-known and evident by direct and organic traffic comprising 92% of its customer traffic. Yatra has served 12 million customers during the past 15 years. 94% of its transactions came from repeat customers last year. 83% of its traffic came through mobile devices. Beneficiary of the ongoing shift from offline travel agents (55% of bookings market share) to online players (45%) like Yatra. During the COVID-19 downturn, Yatra has gained market share in leisure air ticketing as some distressed offline players (traditional travel agents) burned cash and struggled. Cost reductions taken create a lower breakeven hurdle for profitability when adequate revenues resume. Despite some costs to come back after travel grows enough, we estimate that YTRA can retain $10 million of annual cost savings. $10m savings equates to 1,175 bps of EBITDA margin for our calendar 2022 forecast. Furthermore, the promotional environment has been benign lately. Lastly, YTRA’s customer acquisition cost (CAC) could be 15% below some peers. Medium-term underlying growth market fundamentals are intact. India was a high-growth travel and tourism services market until mid-2018 when a major domestic airline went into financial difficulty. This drag was followed by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic triggering lockdowns and limited travel since March 2020. Prior to those rare one-off drags, the India OTA (online travel agency) leisure market was growing at a teens rate and corporate travel was growing 10%+. Cancellation rates of bookings and trips appears to have peaked in April & May during the Delta wave of COVID-19. Stabilization likely occurred in May and should be improving this summer. Employees are beginning to head back to offices in July in India. Infosys (INFY), a large outsourcing and tech services company, informed certain employees in mid-July that they could resume working from offices. IBM (IBM) has been working on vaccinating its 100,000 staff in India. 75% of Indian employees want to return to the office according to a recent study by Barco Clickshare. November could begin a significant step-up in hotel occupancy and flights for travelers originating from cities and suburbs in India. Second wave of COVID-19 was an unexpected setback, driven by the Delta variant. Supply of vaccines was off to a sluggishly slow start until June. However, the vaccination rollout has improved during the past two months. That, coupled with antibodies from prior infections, could trigger enough herd immunity in metro areas in November. Just in time for an uptick in travel for the Diwali festival holiday, Christmas and more comfortable weather for travel. Z acks Investment Research Page 2 scr.zacks.com Yatra Online has gained market share for leisure air ticketing during the past year as distressed offline players (non-OTA, traditional travel agents) burned cash and struggled during the downturn. We expect OTAs to steal market share from offline travel agents as OTA could growth 3x as fast. Leading position in corporate travel OTA in India for business travelers, coupled with its platform for B2B and enterprises, make this company more unique to leverage and grow its reach and offerings. Air and ocean freight services were recently added to its corporate digital platform offerings in August 2020. Furthermore, its expense management systems offering has been enhanced. The Ministry of Tourism in India recently selected Yatra as a partner for four heritage sites to promote tourism and work with those towns for accommodations growth and awareness. We believe these three services have potential for strong sales contribution next year and 2023. Activist shareholder involvement began last week and could be a catalyst for fine-tuning things. We estimate that Adjusted Revenues could grow by 58% this fiscal year ending March 2022 and by 75% for the March 2023 fiscal year. We expect near-normalized travel activity for calendar 2023 following enough vaccinations and a surge in travel willingness behavior. Forged relationships with its corporate clients, B2B travel agents, B2B SMEs and its brand awareness on the leisure side will help it capture the upcoming volume-driven rebound. $4.25 per share is our stock price worth target based on our 2022 Sales forecast and a 10% discount to its peer group average & median of 3.2x EV/Sales 2022. We believe the stock trades at too severe of a discount to 2022 valuation estimates versus other OTA competitors. 1.3x EV/Sales calendar 2022 is a 59% discount versus its peer group. 12x EV/Adjusted EBITDA calendar 2022 is 35% discount versus peers. We expect a re-rating to narrow the gap travel picks up in India. Z acks Investment Research Page 3 scr.zacks.com INVESTMENT THESIS Investment Thesis We believe that Yatra Online (YTRA) is well-positioned for travel recovery because of its #1 leading independent market share in corporate bookings in India and as #2 or #3 position in leisure OTA (online travel agency) in India. Travel appears to have recently bottomed in India and gradually improving. YTRA should be capable of gaining market share because of its technology platform advantages, corporate SaaS platform, shift to online bookings away from traditional agents and new offerings. India had been one of the top three major countries for growth of domestic travel and should benefit from the shift from offline travel agents to online (OTAs). Corporate travel recovery will be a big booster for YTRA as India’s leader and 40% of its volumes pre-pandemic. Yatra, MakeMyTrip, EaseMyTrip and Cleartrip have strong brand recognition within leisure OTA India for a tailwind from consumer spending as COVID-19 subsides.
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