Politecnico di Torino Porto Institutional Repository [Editorship] Planning to cope with tropical and subtropical climate change Original Citation: Tiepolo, Maurizio; Ponte, Enrico; Cristofori, Elena Isotta (2016). Planning to cope with tropical and subtropical climate change. [Editorship] Availability: This version is available at : http://porto.polito.it/2624919/ since: December 2015 Publisher: De Gruyter Open Ltd Terms of use: This article is made available under terms and conditions applicable to Open Access Policy Article ("Creative Commons: Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0") , as described at http: //porto.polito.it/terms_and_conditions.html Porto, the institutional repository of the Politecnico di Torino, is provided by the University Library and the IT-Services. The aim is to enable open access to all the world. Please share with us how this access benefits you. Your story matters. (Article begins on next page) OPEN PLANNING TO COPE WITH TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL CLIMATE CHANGE CHANGE CLIMATE WITHTROPICALANDSUBTROPICAL COPE PLANNING TO EnricoPonte,ElenaCristofori Maurizio Tiepolo, Maurizio Tiepolo, Enrico Ponte, Elena Cristofori (Eds.) During the last decade, many local governments have launched initiatives to reduce CO2 emissions and the potential impact of hydro-climatic disasters. Nonetheless, PLANNING TO COPE today barely 11% of subtropical and tropical cities with over 100,000 inhabitants have a climate plan. Often this tool neither issues from an analysis of climate change or hydro climatic risks, nor does it provide an adequate depth of detail WITH TROPICAL for the identified measures (cost, funding mode, implementation), nor a sound monitoring-evaluation device. This book aims to improve the quality of climate planning by providing 19 examples AND SUBTROPICAL of analysis and assessments in eleven countries. It is intended for local operators in the fields of climate, hydro-climatic risks, physical planning, besides researchers and students of these subjects. CLIMATE CHANGE The first chapter describes the status of climate planning in large subtropical and tropical cities. The following six chapters discuss the hazards (atmospheric drought, intense precipitations, sea level rise, sea water intrusion) and early warning systems in various contexts. Nine chapters explore flood risk analysis and preliminary mapping, climate change vulnerability, comparing contingency plans in various scales and presenting experiences centred on adaptation planning. The last three chapters introduce some best practices of weather and climate change monitoring, of flood risk mapping and assessment. Maurizio Tiepolo is an associate Enrico Ponte is an urban planner and holds a PhD professor of urban and regional in “Environment and territory” at the Politecnico di ( planning at the Politecnico di Torino, Italy. He has participated in hydro climatic Eds. Torino, Italy. He has coordinated risk analysis projects in Ecuador, Haiti, Mozambique several international research and Paraguay. He is currently cooperating on a risk ) programmes on environmental management programme coordinated by the Boston issues in Sub-Saharan Africa. University. He launched and directed the international conferences “Urban Impact of Climate Change in Africa” (2011, 2013), and Elena Cristofori is an early warning system has provided expertise on urban environment, espe- expert. She has developed research on extreme cially on hydro climatic risk analysis and evaluation precipitation risk and collaborated with the in Congo, Ecuador, Macedonia, Mozambique, Niger, World Bank and the World Food Programme. Paraguay and Senegal. At present, she is completing her PhD in “Environment and territory” at the Politecnico di Torino, Italy. www.degruyter.com ISBN 978-3-11-048078-8 Maurizio Tiepolo, Enrico Ponte, Elena Cristofori (Eds.) Planning to Cope with Tropical and Subtropical Climate Change Maurizio Tiepolo, Enrico Ponte, Elena Cristofori (Eds.) Planning to Cope with Tropical and Subtropical Climate Change Managing Editor: Jan Barabach Language Editor: Cindy Bongard Published by De Gruyter Open Ltd, Warsaw/Berlin Part of Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 license, which means that the text may be used for non-commercial purposes, provided credit is given to the author. For details go to http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/. Complimentary Copy Not for Sale © 2016 Maurizio Tiepolo ISBN: 978-3-11-048078-8 e-ISBN: 978-3-11-048079-5 Managing Editor: Jan Barabach Language Editor: Cindy Bongard www.degruyteropen.com Cover illustration: Nsanje district, Malawi, 17 january 2015. During the flood ( Source of the picture: Department of Disaster Management Affairs, Malawi) Contents Acknowledgments xiii Maurizio Tiepolo and Elena Cristofori 1 Planning the Adaptation to Climate Change in Cities: an Introduction 1 1.1 Climate Change in Subtropical and Tropical Cities 1 1.2 Planning the Adaptation of Cities to Climate Change 2 1.3 Structure of the Book 3 References 4 Maurizio Tiepolo and Elena Cristofori 2 Climate Change Characterisation and Planning in Large Tropical and Subtropical Cities 6 2.1 Introduction 7 2.2 Materials and Methods 8 2.3 Results and Discussion 10 2.3.1 Emergence and Dissemination of Climate Planning 10 2.3.2 Tool Types and Their Characteristics 14 2.3.3 Measures 22 2.3.4 Quality of Climate Planning 26 2.4 Conclusions 32 2.5 Recommendations 33 References 35 Appendix A 36 Mitigation, Adaptation, Resilience, Strategy, Policies and Plans 36 Other Plans 38 Emergency Plans 38 Appendix B – Subtropics and Tropics, 2015. 82 Large Cities Provided by Climate Planning 40 Rafael de Oliveira Sakai, Diego Lourenço Cartacho, Emilia Arasaki, Paolo Alfredini, Maurizio Rosso, Alessandro Pezzoli, Wilson Cabral De Souza Junior 3 Extreme Events Assessment Methodology as a Tool for Engineering Adaptation Measures – Case Study of North Coast of São Paulo State (SP), Brazil 42 3.1 Introduction 43 3.2 Methods 46 3.2.1 Getting the Database 47 3.2.2 Analysis of Rainfall and Tidal Data 48 3.2.3 Debris Flow and Flooding Analysis 52 3.3 Results and Discussion 56 3.4 Conclusions 61 3.5 Acknowledgements 61 References 61 Alessandro Pezzoli, Enrico Ponte 4 Vulnerability and Resilience to Drought in the Chaco, Paraguay 63 4.1 Introduction 63 4.2 Methodology 66 4.2.1 The Analysis of Vulnerability 66 4.2.2 The Analysis of Resilience 67 4.3 Characterisation of Atmospheric Drought 69 4.3.1 Neutral Situation 71 4.3.2 The La Niña Situation 72 4.3.3 The El Niño Situation 73 4.3.4 Final Considerations 73 4.4 Vulnerability to Drought 75 4.4.1 Analysis of Exposure 77 4.4.2 Analysis of Sensitivity 78 4.4.3 Analysis of the Adaptation 80 4.4.4 Results 81 4.5 Resilience 83 4.5.1 The Indicators 83 4.5.2 Vulnerability and Resilience Compared 84 4.6 Conclusions 85 References 86 Maurizio Bacci 5 Characterization of Flood Hazard at a Municipal Level. A Case Study in Tillabéri Region, Niger 89 5.1 Introduction 89 5.2 Materials and Methods 95 5.3 Results 101 5.4 Conclusion 104 5.5 Acknowledgements 105 References 105 Giuseppe Sappa, Giulia Luciani 6 Sensitivity of Dar Es Salaam Coastal Aquifer to Climate Change with Regard to Seawater Intrusion and Groundwater Availability 107 6.1 Introduction 107 6.2 The Study Area 108 6.3 Geological and Hydrogeological Framework 109 6.4 Methodology 111 6.5 Data Collection and Analysis 111 6.6 CC Effects on Active Groundwater Recharge 112 6.7 Seawater Intrusion Assessment 117 6.8 Conclusions 127 References 128 Jacques Piazzola, Gilles Tedeschi and Tathy Missamou 7 Impact of the Construction of an Offshore Highway on the Sea-Spray Dynamics in La Reunion Island 130 7.1 Introduction 130 7.2 Field Site and Experiments 131 7.3 The Aerosol Transport Model, MACMod 134 7.4 Transport Calculations of Local Sea-sprays 134 7.4.1 The Local Sea-spray Flux 135 7.4.2 Results 136 7.5 Conclusion 138 7.6 Acknowledgements 138 References 139 Elena Cristofori, Adriana Albanese, Piero Boccardo 8 Early Warning Systems & Geomatics: Value-added Information in the Absence of High Resolution Data 141 8.1 Introduction 141 8.2 Methods 143 8.3 Results 146 8.4 Conclusion 151 References 153 Enrico Ponte 9 Planning the Adaptation of Coastal Cities to Climate Change: a Review of 14 Pilot Projects 154 9.1 Introduction 154 9.2 Action of the Multilateral Bodies to Favour the Prevention of Natural Disasters 155 9.2.1 Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) 156 9.2.2 City and Climate Change Initiative (UN-HABITAT) 157 9.2.3 Cancun Adaptation Framework 158 9.3 Comparison of Local Adaptation Pilot Projects 158 9.3.1 Type of Pilot Projects 160 9.4 General View and Objectives 161 9.4.1 Identification of the Local Impacts Resulting from Climate Change 162 9.4.2 Time Schedule and Budget 162 9.4.3 Direct and indirect Involvement of Stakeholders 164 9.4.4 Identification of Structural and Other Measures 164 9.5 Conclusions 167 References 168 Enrico Ponte 10 National and Local Contingency Planning: a Comparative Analysis of Plans in Africa and Latin America 171 10.1 Introduction 171 10.2 Contingency Plans 172 10.2.1 The Implementation Scale of Plans 173 10.2.2 Phases of Contingency Planning 173 10.2.3 Defining the Scenarios 174 10.3 Examples of Contingency Plans 176 10.3.1 National Contingency Plans 176 10.3.2 Local Contingency Plans 177 10.4 Conclusions 179 References 180 Rita Biconne 11 Measures of Adaptation and Community-based Water Management in Mékhé, Senegal 182 11.1 Introduction 182 11.2 Adapting to Water Scarcity