"Might Makes Right" Fallacy: on a Tacit Justification For
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Conjunction Fallacy' Revisited: How Intelligent Inferences Look Like Reasoning Errors
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making J. Behav. Dec. Making, 12: 275±305 (1999) The `Conjunction Fallacy' Revisited: How Intelligent Inferences Look Like Reasoning Errors RALPH HERTWIG* and GERD GIGERENZER Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, Germany ABSTRACT Findings in recent research on the `conjunction fallacy' have been taken as evid- ence that our minds are not designed to work by the rules of probability. This conclusion springs from the idea that norms should be content-blind Ð in the present case, the assumption that sound reasoning requires following the con- junction rule of probability theory. But content-blind norms overlook some of the intelligent ways in which humans deal with uncertainty, for instance, when drawing semantic and pragmatic inferences. In a series of studies, we ®rst show that people infer nonmathematical meanings of the polysemous term `probability' in the classic Linda conjunction problem. We then demonstrate that one can design contexts in which people infer mathematical meanings of the term and are therefore more likely to conform to the conjunction rule. Finally, we report evidence that the term `frequency' narrows the spectrum of possible interpreta- tions of `probability' down to its mathematical meanings, and that this fact Ð rather than the presence or absence of `extensional cues' Ð accounts for the low proportion of violations of the conjunction rule when people are asked for frequency judgments. We conclude that a failure to recognize the human capacity for semantic and pragmatic inference can lead rational responses to be misclassi®ed as fallacies. Copyright # 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. KEY WORDS conjunction fallacy; probabalistic thinking; frequentistic thinking; probability People's apparent failures to reason probabilistically in experimental contexts have raised serious concerns about our ability to reason rationally in real-world environments. -
A Task-Based Taxonomy of Cognitive Biases for Information Visualization
A Task-based Taxonomy of Cognitive Biases for Information Visualization Evanthia Dimara, Steven Franconeri, Catherine Plaisant, Anastasia Bezerianos, and Pierre Dragicevic Three kinds of limitations The Computer The Display 2 Three kinds of limitations The Computer The Display The Human 3 Three kinds of limitations: humans • Human vision ️ has limitations • Human reasoning 易 has limitations The Human 4 ️Perceptual bias Magnitude estimation 5 ️Perceptual bias Magnitude estimation Color perception 6 易 Cognitive bias Behaviors when humans consistently behave irrationally Pohl’s criteria distilled: • Are predictable and consistent • People are unaware they’re doing them • Are not misunderstandings 7 Ambiguity effect, Anchoring or focalism, Anthropocentric thinking, Anthropomorphism or personification, Attentional bias, Attribute substitution, Automation bias, Availability heuristic, Availability cascade, Backfire effect, Bandwagon effect, Base rate fallacy or Base rate neglect, Belief bias, Ben Franklin effect, Berkson's paradox, Bias blind spot, Choice-supportive bias, Clustering illusion, Compassion fade, Confirmation bias, Congruence bias, Conjunction fallacy, Conservatism (belief revision), Continued influence effect, Contrast effect, Courtesy bias, Curse of knowledge, Declinism, Decoy effect, Default effect, Denomination effect, Disposition effect, Distinction bias, Dread aversion, Dunning–Kruger effect, Duration neglect, Empathy gap, End-of-history illusion, Endowment effect, Exaggerated expectation, Experimenter's or expectation bias, -
The Nature of Student Thinking and Its Implications for the Use of Learning Progressions to Inform Classroom Instruction
The Nature of Student Thinking and Its Implications for the Use of Learning Progressions to Inform Classroom Instruction Alicia Alonzo, Michigan State University, [email protected] Andrew Elby, University of Maryland, [email protected] Abstract: Underlying much of the work on learning progressions (LPs) is a strong though often tacit assumption that student thinking is theory-like and context-independent. In this work-in-progress, we use both theoretical perspectives on the nature of novices’ knowledge and empirical evidence of the context-dependent variability of students’ reasoning in physics to question this assumption and to argue that characterizing students in terms of LP “levels” inadequately captures their understanding of force and motion. We then analyze one teacher’s use of LP-based data to reason about student thinking and instructional responses. While the teacher reasoned fluidly using LP levels, he more frequently used finer-grained knowledge elements and contextual factors to interpret student thinking; and these finer-grained interpretations led to more actionable instructional implications. Thus, while recognizing LPs as models (imperfect representations) of student thinking, we argue that their assumption of “levels” of student understanding may limit their utility for classroom decision-making. Introduction Learning progressions (LPs)—“descriptions of the successively more sophisticated ways of thinking about a topic” (National Research Council [NRC], 2007, p. 219)—have been touted as having the potential to influence educational policies and practices including standards, curriculum, instruction, and assessment (e.g., Black, Wilson, & Yao, 2011; National Assessment Governing Board, 2008; NRC, 2007, 2012). Although the NRC (2007, 2012) has tended to emphasize large-scale applications and LPs that span many years of instruction, LPs have also been promoted as tools to support teachers’ instructional decision-making (Alonzo, 2011; Black et al., 2011; Furtak, 2012). -
The Golden Cord
THE GOLDEN CORD A SHORT BOOK ON THE SECULAR AND THE SACRED ' " ' ..I ~·/ I _,., ' '4 ~ 'V . \ . " ': ,., .:._ C HARLE S TALIAFERR O THE GOLDEN CORD THE GOLDEN CORD A SHORT BOOK ON THE SECULAR AND THE SACRED CHARLES TALIAFERRO University of Notre Dame Press Notre Dame, Indiana Copyright © 2012 by the University of Notre Dame Press Notre Dame, Indiana 46556 www.undpress.nd.edu All Rights Reserved Manufactured in the United States of America Library of Congress Cataloging- in- Publication Data Taliaferro, Charles. The golden cord : a short book on the secular and the sacred / Charles Taliaferro. pages cm Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN-13: 978-0-268-04238-7 (pbk. : alk. paper) ISBN-10: 0-268-04238-1 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. God (Christianity) 2. Life—Religious aspects—Christianity. 3. Self—Religious aspects—Christianity. 4. Redemption—Christianity. 5. Cambridge Platonism. I. Title. BT103.T35 2012 230—dc23 2012037000 ∞ The paper in this book meets the guidelines for permanence and durability of the Committee on Production Guidelines for Book Longevity of the Council on Library Resources. CONTENTS Acknowledgments vii Introduction 1 CHAPTER 1 Love in the Physical World 15 CHAPTER 2 Selves and Bodies 41 CHAPTER 3 Some Big Pictures 61 CHAPTER 4 Some Real Appearances 81 CHAPTER 5 Is God Mad, Bad, and Dangerous to Know? 107 CHAPTER 6 Redemption and Time 131 CHAPTER 7 Eternity in Time 145 CHAPTER 8 Glory and the Hallowing of Domestic Virtue 163 Notes 179 Index 197 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I am deeply grateful for the patience, graciousness, support, and encour- agement of the University of Notre Dame Press’s senior editor, Charles Van Hof. -
Hindu Fundamentalism and Christian Response in India
HINDU FUNDAMENTALISM AND CHRISTIAN RESPONSE IN INDIA Rev. Shadakshari T.K. (Bangalore, India and Pastoring Divyajyothi Church of the Nazarene) Introduction One of the purposes of religion, humanly speaking, is to enable people to live a responsible life. One desire is that religious people may not disturb the harmonious life; rather, they may contribute towards it. Today, religions have become a source of conflict and violence in many Asian societies. This is very evident in India where the inter-relationship among religions is breaking up. The contemporary problem in India is the question of nationalism and the issue of marginalized identities. Christians are caught between two: participation in the nationalism in the one hand and commitment to the cause of the marginalized on the other. There is an awakening of nationalism, which bears strong religious stamp, which is strongly promoted by the Hindutva ideology. At the same time there is a strong awakening of the Tribals and Dalits. In this context, the question comes to our mind: how do Christians in India serve both nationalism and marginal groups when both of them are opposing each other? I am not promising the absolute answer for the question raised. However, this article provides some clues by analyzing the historical development of religious fundamentalism and suggesting an appropriate response for Christians. Though there are several religious fundamental groups in the history of India (including Hinduism, Islam, Sikhism, and others), this article limits its study to the religious fundamentalism of Hinduism. The importance of Hindu fundamentalism lies in its very contemporary and nationalistic scope, compared to other, more regional expressions. -
“Dysrationalia” Among University Students: the Role of Cognitive
“Dysrationalia” among university students: The role of cognitive abilities, different aspects of rational thought and self-control in explaining epistemically suspect beliefs Erceg, Nikola; Galić, Zvonimir; Bubić, Andreja Source / Izvornik: Europe’s Journal of Psychology, 2019, 15, 159 - 175 Journal article, Published version Rad u časopisu, Objavljena verzija rada (izdavačev PDF) https://doi.org/10.5964/ejop.v15i1.1696 Permanent link / Trajna poveznica: https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:131:942674 Rights / Prava: Attribution 4.0 International Download date / Datum preuzimanja: 2021-09-29 Repository / Repozitorij: ODRAZ - open repository of the University of Zagreb Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences Europe's Journal of Psychology ejop.psychopen.eu | 1841-0413 Research Reports “Dysrationalia” Among University Students: The Role of Cognitive Abilities, Different Aspects of Rational Thought and Self-Control in Explaining Epistemically Suspect Beliefs Nikola Erceg* a, Zvonimir Galić a, Andreja Bubić b [a] Department of Psychology, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia. [b] Department of Psychology, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Split, Split, Croatia. Abstract The aim of the study was to investigate the role that cognitive abilities, rational thinking abilities, cognitive styles and self-control play in explaining the endorsement of epistemically suspect beliefs among university students. A total of 159 students participated in the study. We found that different aspects of rational thought (i.e. rational thinking abilities and cognitive styles) and self-control, but not intelligence, significantly predicted the endorsement of epistemically suspect beliefs. Based on these findings, it may be suggested that intelligence and rational thinking, although related, represent two fundamentally different constructs. -
Homage to Political Philosophy
Homage to Political Philosophy Also by James R. Flynn Philosophy Humanism and Ideology: An Aristotelian View (1973) How to Defend Humane Ideals: Substitutes for Objectivity (2000) Fate and Philosophy: A Journey through Life’s Great Questions (2012) The modern world The Torchlight List: Around the World in 200 Books (2010) How to Improve Your Mind: Twenty Keys to Unlock the Modern World (2012) The New Torchlight List: In Search of the Best Modern Authors (2016) No Place to Hide: Climate change-- A Short Introduction for New Zealanders (2nd Printing 2017) Intelligence What Is Intelligence? Beyond the Flynn Effect (2007) Are We Getting Smarter? Rising IQ in the Twenty-first Century (2012) Intelligence and Human Progress: The Story of What Was Hidden in Our Genes (2013) Does Your Family Make You Smarter? Nature, Nurture, and Human Autonomy (2016) Group differences Race, IQ, and Jensen (1980) Asian Americans: Achievement beyond IQ (1991) American politics and foreign policy American Politics: A Radical View (1967) Where Have All the Liberals Gone? Race, Class, and Ideals in America (2008) Beyond Patriotism: From Truman to Obama (2012) Belles lettres O God Who Has a Russian Soul: Poems about New Zealand and Its people (2010) Homage to Political Philosophy: The Good Society from Plato to the Present By James R. Flynn Homage to Political Philosophy: The Good Society from Plato to the Present By James R. Flynn This book first published 2018 Cambridge Scholars Publishing Lady Stephenson Library, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE6 2PA, UK British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Copyright © 2018 by James R. -
Some Worries About the Coherence of Left-Libertarianism Mathias Risse
John F. Kennedy School of Government Harvard University Faculty Research Working Papers Series Can There be “Libertarianism without Inequality”? Some Worries About the Coherence of Left-Libertarianism Mathias Risse Nov 2003 RWP03-044 The views expressed in the KSG Faculty Research Working Paper Series are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the John F. Kennedy School of Government or Harvard University. All works posted here are owned and copyrighted by the author(s). Papers may be downloaded for personal use only. Can There be “Libertarianism without Inequality”? Some Worries About the Coherence of Left-Libertarianism1 Mathias Risse John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University October 25, 2003 1. Left-libertarianism is not a new star on the sky of political philosophy, but it was through the recent publication of Peter Vallentyne and Hillel Steiner’s anthologies that it became clearly visible as a contemporary movement with distinct historical roots. “Left- libertarian theories of justice,” says Vallentyne, “hold that agents are full self-owners and that natural resources are owned in some egalitarian manner. Unlike most versions of egalitarianism, left-libertarianism endorses full self-ownership, and thus places specific limits on what others may do to one’s person without one’s permission. Unlike right- libertarianism, it holds that natural resources may be privately appropriated only with the permission of, or with a significant payment to, the members of society. Like right- libertarianism, left-libertarianism holds that the basic rights of individuals are ownership rights. Left-libertarianism is promising because it coherently underwrites both some demands of material equality and some limits on the permissible means of promoting this equality” (Vallentyne and Steiner (2000a), p 1; emphasis added). -
Working Memory, Cognitive Miserliness and Logic As Predictors of Performance on the Cognitive Reflection Test
Working Memory, Cognitive Miserliness and Logic as Predictors of Performance on the Cognitive Reflection Test Edward J. N. Stupple ([email protected]) Centre for Psychological Research, University of Derby Kedleston Road, Derby. DE22 1GB Maggie Gale ([email protected]) Centre for Psychological Research, University of Derby Kedleston Road, Derby. DE22 1GB Christopher R. Richmond ([email protected]) Centre for Psychological Research, University of Derby Kedleston Road, Derby. DE22 1GB Abstract Most participants respond that the answer is 10 cents; however, a slower and more analytic approach to the The Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) was devised to measure problem reveals the correct answer to be 5 cents. the inhibition of heuristic responses to favour analytic ones. The CRT has been a spectacular success, attracting more Toplak, West and Stanovich (2011) demonstrated that the than 100 citations in 2012 alone (Scopus). This may be in CRT was a powerful predictor of heuristics and biases task part due to the ease of administration; with only three items performance - proposing it as a metric of the cognitive miserliness central to dual process theories of thinking. This and no requirement for expensive equipment, the practical thesis was examined using reasoning response-times, advantages are considerable. There have, moreover, been normative responses from two reasoning tasks and working numerous correlates of the CRT demonstrated, from a wide memory capacity (WMC) to predict individual differences in range of tasks in the heuristics and biases literature (Toplak performance on the CRT. These data offered limited support et al., 2011) to risk aversion and SAT scores (Frederick, for the view of miserliness as the primary factor in the CRT. -
10 Fallacies and Examples Pdf
10 fallacies and examples pdf Continue A: It is imperative that we promote adequate means to prevent degradation that would jeopardize the project. Man B: Do you think that just because you use big words makes you sound smart? Shut up, loser; You don't know what you're talking about. #2: Ad Populum: Ad Populum tries to prove the argument as correct simply because many people believe it is. Example: 80% of people are in favor of the death penalty, so the death penalty is moral. #3. Appeal to the body: In this erroneous argument, the author argues that his argument is correct because someone known or powerful supports it. Example: We need to change the age of drinking because Einstein believed that 18 was the right age of drinking. #4. Begging question: This happens when the author's premise and conclusion say the same thing. Example: Fashion magazines do not harm women's self-esteem because women's trust is not damaged after reading the magazine. #5. False dichotomy: This misconception is based on the assumption that there are only two possible solutions, so refuting one decision means that another solution should be used. It ignores other alternative solutions. Example: If you want better public schools, you should raise taxes. If you don't want to raise taxes, you can't have the best schools #6. Hasty Generalization: Hasty Generalization occurs when the initiator uses too small a sample size to support a broad generalization. Example: Sally couldn't find any cute clothes in the boutique and couldn't Maura, so there are no cute clothes in the boutique. -
The Satanic Bible Anton Szandor Lavey
Called “The Black Pope” by many of his followers, Anton LaVey began the road to High Priesthood of the Church of Satan when he was only 16 years old and an organ player in a carnival: “On Saturday night I would see men lusting after half‐naked girls dancing at the carnival, and on Sunday morning when I was playing the organ for tent‐show evangelists at the other end of the carnival lot, I would see these same men sitting in the pews with their wives and children, asking God to forgive them and purge them of carnal desires. And the next Saturday night they’d be back at the carnival or some other place of indulgence. “I knew then that the Christian Church thrives on hypocrisy, and that man’s carnal nature will out!” From that time early in his life his path was clear. Finally, on the last night of April, 1966– Walpurgisnacht, the most important festival of the believers in witchcraft–LaVey shaved his head in the tradition of ancient executioners and announced the formation of The Church Of Satan. He had seen the need for a church that would recapture man’s body and his carnal desires as objects of celebration. “Since worship of fleshly things produces pleasure,” he said, “there would then be a temple of glorious indulgence. .” The Satanic Bible Anton Szandor LaVey For Diane Dedications To: Bernadino Logara, who knew the value of money Karl Haushofer, a teacher without a classroom Rasputin, who knew the magic of a child Sir Basil Zaharoff, a gentleman Cagliostro, a rogue Barnabas Saul, the link with Mount Lalesh Ragnar Redbeard, whose might is right William Mortensen, who looked . -
Fallaciesposter16x24.Pdf
Misrepresenting someone’s argument to make it easier Presuming that a real or perceived relationship between Manipulating an emotional response in place of a valid or Presuming a claim to be necessarily wrong because a to attack. things means that one is the cause of the other. compelling argument. fallacy has been committed. By exaggerating, misrepresenting, or just completely fabricating someone's Many people confuse correlation (things happening together or in sequence) Appeals to emotion include appeals to fear, envy, hatred, pity, guilt, and more. It is entirely possibly to make a claim that is false yet argue with logical argument, it's much easier to present your own position as being reasonable, for causation (that one thing actually causes the other to happen). Sometimes Though a valid, and reasoned, argument may sometimes have an emotional coherency for that claim, just as is possible to make a claim that is true and but this kind of dishonesty serves to undermine rational debate. correlation is coincidental, or it may be attributable to a common cause. aspect, one must be careful that emotion doesn’t obscure or replace reason. justify it with various fallacies and poor arguments. After Will said that we should put more money into health and education, Pointing to a fancy chart, Roger shows how temperatures have been rising over Luke didn’t want to eat his sheep’s brains with chopped liver and brussels Recognising that Amanda had committed a fallacy in arguing that we should Warren responded by saying that he was surprised that Will hates our country the past few centuries, whilst at the same time the numbers of pirates have sprouts, but his father told him to think about the poor, starving children in a eat healthy food because a nutritionist said it was popular, Alyse said we so much that he wants to leave it defenceless by cutting military spending.