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Religion, Food Choices, and Demand Seasonality: Evidence from the Ethiopian Milk Market

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Religion, Food Choices, and Demand Seasonality: Evidence from the Ethiopian Milk Market Religion, food choices, and demand seasonality: Evidence from the Ethiopian milk market E. D'Haene¹; S. Desiere²; M. D'Haese¹; W. Verbeke³; K. Schoors³ 1: Ghent University, Agricultural Economics, Belgium, 2: Leuven University, , Belgium, 3: Ghent University, , Belgium Corresponding author email: [email protected] Abstract: This paper addresses the role of religious practices on market outcomes. We study the Ethiopian milk market what amounts to a natural experiment influenced by different Christian, Islamic and traditional faiths. Focal point of this article are the fasting rituals characterized by the abstinence of animal products, a fundamental pillar of Orthodox Christianity, the dominant religious group within Ethiopia. Employing country-wide data collected by the Living Standards Measurement Studies, we find, much to our surprise, that the fasting rituals of the Orthodox Christian society adversely affects both milk demand in Orthodox and local Muslim communities alike. The direct effect on Orthodox groups and the spillovers to Muslim networks create important market inefficiencies. The religion-related demand cycles are particularly challenging to government policies that aim to develop the livestock sector. Keywords: Consumer behavior, Collective fasting rituals, Intentional demand seasonality, Livestock sector development and policies, Religion, Market inefficiencies Acknowledegment: JEL Codes: Q11, D12 #2086 Religion, food choices, and demand seasonality: Evidence from the Ethiopian milk market Abstract This paper addresses the role of religious practices on market outcomes. We study the Ethiopian milk market what amounts to a natural experiment influenced by different Christian, Islamic and traditional faiths. Focal point of this article are the fasting rituals characterized by the abstinence of animal products, a fundamental pillar of Orthodox Christianity, the dominant religious group within Ethiopia. Employing country- wide data collected by the Living Standards Measurement Studies, we find, much to our surprise, that the fasting rituals of the Orthodox Christian society adversely affects both milk demand in Orthodox and local Muslim communities alike. The direct effect on Orthodox groups and the spillovers to Muslim networks create important market inefficiencies. The religion-related demand cycles are particularly challenging to government policies that aim to develop the livestock sector. Keywords: Consumer behavior, Collective fasting rituals, Intentional demand seasonality, Livestock sector development and policies, Religion, Market inefficiencies 1 Introduction 1 The term ‘Livestock Revolution’ was introduced by Delgado et al. (1999) to point to the unprecedentedly 2 rapid increase in demand for livestock produce noted in the developing world since the 1970s. Population 3 growth, progressive urbanization and growing per capita income levels are thought to be the revolution’s 4 driving forces (Delgado et al. 1999). While individual intake of livestock produce indeed exploded in some 5 transforming and urbanized economies of Asia and Latin-America (particularly in China, India, and Brazil), 6 the ‘revolution’ surpassed the majority of developing countries including sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Annual 7 growth rate of per capita milk, meat and egg consumption in SSA was -0.2, 0.2, and 0.3% respectively for 8 the period 1987-2007 (Gerosa & Skoet 2013). Problems of structural supply, poorly developed local 9 markets, low income, and consumer preferences have been discussed to explain this stagnating progress 10 (e.g. Staal et al. (2008), Rae and Nayga (2010), and USAID (2013)). Yet, within this literature on 11 consumption of animal-source foods (ASF), the impact of cultural values in general, and religion in particular, 12 has been largely neglected; a research gap we address in this paper. 13 The significance of including an appropriate level of ASF in diets to improve dietary quality and diversity has 14 been underpinned by an abundant number of studies (Murphy and Allen 2003; Jin and Iannotti 2014). ASF 15 are valuable and dense sources of several micro- and macronutrients which are hard to retrieve in adequate 16 amount from plant source foods only (Murphy and Allen 2003). Livestock-based interventions are deemed 17 to be a decisive strategy to reduce malnutrition, especially in SSA where half of the world’s malnourished 18 population is residing, and where diets predominantly consists of cereal- or root staple crops (Hetherington 19 et al. 2017). 20 Within SSA, Ethiopia has the largest estimated livestock herd (Tilahun and Schmidt 2012), still Ethiopian 21 diets contain little ASF; animal produce account for only 1.7 and 3% of the total energy intake of rural and 22 urban households respectively (Hirvonen 2015). In August 2015, the Ethiopian government launched the 23 national Livestock Master Plan to boost livestock production and productivity. Roadmaps were developed 24 for different key livestock value chains. Albeit the plan stipulates the importance of promoting livestock 25 produce consumption, the proposed policy interventions mainly focus on improving livestock production and 2 26 productivity through enhanced herd management, genetic resources, feed, and health care (Shapiro et al. 27 2015). 28 This study emphasizes the demand side of the livestock market. Where numerous studies generally assume 29 a rise in per capita consumption of ASF in the African continent, we challenge this conception. Cultural and 30 religious values and practices are known to slow down the substitution of starchy staples in African food 31 baskets by high-value foods such as ASF (Robinson and Pozzi 2011). Religious traditions are deeply 32 embedded in SSA’s societies. These traditions are very diverse and are fundamentally influencing everyday 33 life. Christianity and Islam are particularly important and represent 62.9 and 30.2% of people’s affiliations in 34 the continent (Pew Research Center 2014). Both traditions have been co-existing for centuries and are 35 amongst the fastest growing religious faiths in SSA (Schulz and Janson 2016). Ethiopia, the second most 36 populous of the continent, is home to Orthodox (44% of the population), Muslim (34%), Protestant 37 (19%),Catholic (1%) and traditional faiths (3%) (CSA 2010).The country resides the second largest 38 community of Orthodox Christians (which numbers to 39 million), out of the 138 countries where this sub- 39 group is represented (Brill n.d.). This paper focuses on the fasting rituals traditionally embedded in the 40 dominant Ethiopian Orthodox Church (EOC). During fasting events, which are scattered throughout a 41 religious year, Orthodox followers are presumed to pursue a vegan diet, hence abstaining from consuming 42 any animal product. With around half of the Ethiopian population being member of the EOC and a total sum 43 of about 200 Orthodox fasting days a year, religion clearly influences demand for animal produce in the 44 country (Hirvonen et al. 2015). Although several studies mention that fasting undeniably impacts livestock 45 consumption patterns as it is causing a seasonal demand cycle (Hirvonen et al. 2015; Bachewe et al. 2017; 46 USDA-FAS 2017)), none but one (Negassa (2009)) has attempted to quantify this effect on raw milk and 47 butter purchase within two Ethiopian towns. 48 Our aim is to evaluate the economic and societal impact of religion on food systems by specifically focusing 49 on the milk value chain. Milk is the largest source of animal-based protein in developing countries, 50 accounting for 60% of total per capita consumption of primary livestock products (i.e. meat, milk and eggs) 51 (Gerosa and Skoet 2013). It is a promising ASF in developing countries as it has been associated with one 52 of the lowest production costs when compared to other plant and animal protein sources (Drewnowski 53 2010). Based on our findings, we argue that religious values and practices (amongst other factors) lay at 3 54 the root of low and stationary consumer demand for animal produce and contribute to the so-called 55 intentional demand seasonality. Moreover, the impact of religious rituals is not limited to demand, as they 56 cause important shifts in production decisions at household-level. The impact of collective fasting rituals is 57 also not restrained to the practicing group. Important spillover effects are detected for other groups within 58 society, especially the Muslim community. 59 Our research adds to literature on economics of religion in different ways: (1) because of religious group it 60 focuses on and (2) the location. The scholarship of this subdomain of economics is predominately one of 61 economics on Islam and still has a biased research focus on Western countries (neglecting both Asia, but 62 particularly Africa) (Iyer 2016). Additionally, the impact of religion in shaping food choices has been 63 understated within the scholarship on consumer behavior (Heiman et al. 2017). Hence, we contribute to this 64 literature on consumer behavior and religiously-inspired consumption rituals. 2 Background 2.1 Linking religion and consumer behavior 65 Religion influences consumers both directly via explicit instructions laid out in holy texts and/or by religious 66 leaders and indirectly through beliefs and attitudes established within the larger religious group (Harrell 67 1986). Despite this apparent relation between religion and consumer behavior, this area is vastly 68 understudied. Quantitative analyses on the impact of specific
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