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Future of Renewable Energy Penetration in Kuwait As an Oil Producer Country

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Future of Renewable Energy Penetration in Kuwait As an Oil Producer Country Future of Renewable Energy Penetration in Kuwait As Oil Producer Country Authored By: Mahammad M A M J Alsafar Supervised By: Dr Daniel Costola A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements of MSc in Sustainable Engineering: Renewable Energy Systems and the Environment 2019/2020 Declaration of Authentication This thesis is the result of the author’s original research. It has been composed by the author and has not been previously submitted for examination which has led to the award of a degree. The copyright of this thesis belongs to the author under the terms of the United Kingdom Copyright Acts as qualified by University of Strathclyde Regulation 3.50. Due acknowledgement must always be made of the use of any material contained in, or derived from, this thesis. Signed by: MAHAMMAD M A M J ALSAFAR Submitted on: 26/08/2020 201951085 II Abstract Kuwait have a moral obligation to follow the global trend of utilizing renewables to limit and reduce the climate change. the government have set their expectations on 15% of the total national power production to be sourced from renewables by the year 2030. Kuwait, who is oil producer country, is inexperienced in renewables and to be considered immature in the field. This paper studies weather Kuwait is able to develop a considerable segment of renewables in its electricity network or would the government compromise, the analyses were conducted based on supplier’s perspective. After the paper had investigated the potentiality of solar and wind resources in Kuwait using the literature and HOMER Pro as its tools, it was found that they have enough potential to be harnessed and utilised. Therefore, three different cases were created that serves different objectives. In Case 0, HOMER simulation of base case produced similar statistics as the real energy model in Kuwait, with power production of 74.1 TWh/year and carbon emission of 105 MMt. Hence, the load profile created for HOMER was concluded to be feasible. Best system configuration was then found in Case 1 namely; solar PV-wind turbine grid connected system. The best system configuration is selected based on the area required (101 km2) and NPC ($121B). Meanwhile, annual reduction in CO2 emissions depend on the amount of electricity kWh/year sourced from renewables which is similar in all configurations since both wind turbine and solar PV have 20% capacity. Although solar PV grid connected system had lower NPC, and Lower land requirement, it had limited power generation in terms of its reliance on sun time. In that sense, adding wind turbine to solar PV results in a reduced NPC and area while at the same time it has distributed energy production and reduced surplus energy potential. Finally, Case 2 projected the growth of electricity demand (4%) and population (8.4%) for the year 2030 in the simulation. Therefore, the national annual power production increased to 77.1 TWh, with 15% renewable power production of 11.5 TWh/year using the selected system configuration. The system has $125B NPC and require 108 km2, which is more than the current permitted area for renewable project in Kuwait. Since Kuwait is financially capable that much of a cost is not a major problem (note: NPC behavior might be flawed and reasons are stated in 5.2.2). However, “New Kuwait” vision for sustainability is not feasible in that specific configuration if Kuwait is not welling to permit dedicate more are for renewable projects. 201951085 III Acknowledgement I would like to thank Dr Daniel Costola for his guidance and supervision throughout the project period. I would also extend my gratitude to Dr Paul Tuohy for his support and advises at the beginning of the of this project and throughout the year. I thank my family especially my father and mother for their encouragement, love and support which helped me to overcome my obstacles. I would also extend my thanks to my classmates Euan cutting, Ross Hamilton and Michael Andrew for their support academically and mentally. My gratitude is also for my friends Hussain Alsaffar, Abdullah AlBoloushi and Hussain Alzalzalah for their encouragement throughout the year. I would like to thank Kuwait embassy for their care of Kuwaiti students and helping by all means to overcome different problems during the pandemic of coronavirus (COVID-19). I would like to thank University of Strathclyde for working very hard under the pressure of limited time during current events of COVID-19 to provide the means for us, the students, to complete our degrees. Last but not least, my greatest thanks for my brother Al-Mahdi Alsaffar, who lent me his laptop that without it I would not have been able to finish my project 201951085 IV TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARATION OF AUTHENTICATION ..................................................................................... II ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................ III ACKNOWLEDGEMENT .......................................................................................................... IV TABLE OF CONTENTS ...................................................................................................... V LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................... VIII LIST OF TABLES .............................................................................................................. XI 1 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................ 1 1.1 BRIEF PROFILE OF KUWAIT ......................................................................................... 3 1.2 AIMS AND OBJECTIVES ............................................................................................... 4 1.3 OVERVIEW OF THE METHODOLOGY ............................................................................ 5 1.4 DISSERTATION STRUCTURE......................................................................................... 6 2 LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................................... 7 2.1 KUWAIT SITUATION .................................................................................................... 7 2.1.1 Location, Size and Population ........................................................................... 7 2.1.2 Economy ............................................................................................................. 8 2.1.3 Energy production and demand ......................................................................... 9 2.1.4 Environment, Climate and Emissions .............................................................. 14 2.2 REAL ENERGY MODEL .............................................................................................. 15 2.3 RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS ............................................................................... 16 201951085 V 3 RENEWABLE RESOURCE POTENTIAL ................................................................ 18 3.1 SOLAR POTENTIAL .................................................................................................... 19 3.2 WIND POTENTIAL ..................................................................................................... 23 3.3 TEMPERATURE .......................................................................................................... 31 4 METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................................ 32 4.1 PRELIMINARIES: DEMAND PROFILE .......................................................................... 32 4.2 PRELIMINARIES: HOMER LOAD............................................................................... 35 4.3 RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION MODELLING .................................................... 38 4.4 CASE 0: GRID & VALIDITY SIMULATION .................................................................. 38 4.5 CASE 1: CURRENT RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION, 2020 .................................. 40 4.5.1 Components Characteristics ............................................................................ 41 4.5.2 Scenario 1: Solar PV System ........................................................................... 43 4.5.1 Scenario 2: Wind Turbine System .................................................................... 45 4.5.1 Scenario 3: solar & wind systems .................................................................... 45 4.6 CASE 2: PROJECTED RENEWABLE PENETRATION, 2030 ............................................ 46 4.6.1 Scenario 4: Solar-wind systems in the future .................................................. 47 5 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION .................................................................................... 49 5.1 CASE 0: BASE CASE (GRID ONLY) ............................................................................ 49 5.2 CASE 1: SCENARIO 1 ................................................................................................. 52 5.2.1 10MW PV system ............................................................................................. 52 201951085 VI 5.2.2 Increasing PV capacity .................................................................................... 54 5.3 CASE 1: SCENARIO 2 ................................................................................................. 62 5.3.1 Increasing capacity .........................................................................................
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