European and Mediterranean Workshop ””ClimateClimate changechange impactimpact onon waterwater --relatedrelated andand marinemarine risksrisks ”” Murcia, October, 26th-27th, 2009 ClimateClimate changeschanges impactsimpacts onon droughtdrought managementmanagement inin MediterraneanMediterranean area:area: howhow toto improveimprove thethe approaches?approaches?
M. Vurro(*), E. Bruno, R. Giordano, I. Portoghese, E. Preziosi, E. Romano
Water Research Institute, National Research Council, IRSA-CNR, Italy, Roma-Bari Via F. De Blasio, 5 – 70123 Bari
([email protected]) Water Research Institute National Research Council TheThe aimaim ofof thethe presentation:presentation:
1. To identify requirements for natural risk management in the context of increased threats related to climate change consequences . 2. To promote a network of actors to transform such requirements into a better protection of the population against such emerging natural hazards.
Water Research Institute, National Research Council Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 www.irsa.cnr.it CIRCE started from… What would we expect from climate change in water-stressed regions?
• CIRCE wants to understand and to explain how climate will change in the Mediterranean area. The project will investigate how global and Mediterranean climates interact, how properties of the atmosphere, the radiactive fluxes vary, the interaction between cloudiness and aerosol, the modifications in the water cycle and implications on social and economic sectors.
IPCC 4AR • Many semi-arid and arid areas (e.g., the Mediterranean basin , western USA, southern Africa and north-eastern Brazil) are particularly exposed to the impacts of climate change and are projected (with high confidence) to suffer a decrease of water resources due to climate change. • There is an urgent need to understand and quantify the impact of projected climate change on hydrological processes including vegetation and crops (feedbacks). • Linkages between models for climate change and hydrological processes is crude, with models’ scales not relevant for decision making .
Water Research Institute, National Research Council Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 www.irsa.cnr.it RL 0 - Coordination and Communication
RL 2 - The Mediterranean RL 6 – Extreme Events Region and the Global Climate System RL 7 - Impacts of Global Change on Ecosystems and the RL 3 – Radiation, clouds, services they provide aerosol and climate change RL 11 RL 8 - Air Quality and Climate Identification and RL 4 – ScaleRL 5 Interactions attribution of RL 9 - Human Health and Feedback processes present climate trends Water RL 10 - Economic Impacts of RL 5 - Water Cycle Climate Change Cycle
RL 11 Integrating Case Studies RL 12 Relevant Societal Dynamics RL13 Induced Responses and Policies
Objective: “Quantify the past variations and future projections in the water cycle in the Mediterranean Environment under global climate changes system.”
Water Research Institute, National Research Council Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 www.irsa.cnr.it RL 5 Water Cycle
WP2 ) Variations in the precipitation component of the WP1) Analysis of water cycle changes in Atmospheric water budget
WP3) Variations in the terrestrial WP4 ) Changes in component of water Mediterranean Sea cycle water cycle and implications for water mass characteristics RACCM (Regional Assessment of Climate Change in Mediterranean Area )
• PART 1 : AIR, SEA AND PRECIPITATION: Past, Current and Future on Ocean, on Atmosphere, on Extremes and on Uncertainty; Mechanisms of climate variability in the Mediterranean Region • PART 2 : WATER: The hydrologic cycle: different components and interactions; Impacts of climate change on surface water, on ground water and coastal aquifer and on water quality. • PART 3 : AGRICULTURE, FORESTS AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES: Climate change impacts on typical Mediterranean crops, forests and forest products, livestock population and productivity and evaluation of adaptation strategies to cope with. Vulnerability assessment of ecosystem services in the Mediterranean region, • PART 4 : PEOPLE: Water for people, Health, The general equilibrium approach, Policy innovation, Future visions of society in the Mediterranean • PART 5 : CASE STUDIES – Coastal Case Studies : Gulf of Valencia (Spain), Gulf of Oran (Algeria), Gulf of Gabes (Tunisia), Western Nile Delta (Egypt) – Rural Case Studies : Tuscany Region (Italy), Puglia Region (Italy), Judean Foothills (Israel), Tel Hadya (Syria). – Urban Case Studies : Alexandria (Egypt), Athens (Greece), Beirut (Lebanon),
Water Research Institute, National Research Council Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 www.irsa.cnr.it Springs
Area of interest : it is located in Campania, a region of Southern Italy, in which there are not many studies about the relationship between climate change and water supply Springs of interest : our studies are based on two main springs of the area,which are capped by Apulian aqueduct Caposele Sanità
Cassano Irpino
Water Research Institute, National Research Council Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 www.irsa.cnr.it Geological Characterization
Substantial preponderance of Calcareous soil (Cretaceus)
with smaller areas especially of
Arenaceus soil (Oligocene – Miocene ) Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 Hydrological Characterization Hydrological basins of Cassano Irpino and Caposele Springs.
Into these limits there are 5 meteo climatic stations:
• M1 = Caposele • M2 = Acerno • M3 = P.no Laceno • M4 = Serrapullo • M5 = Cassano Irpino and 6 hydrometric station:
• I1 = Acqua delle Brecce • I2 = Fiume Sele • I3 = V.ne dell’acero • I4 = V.ne Iannarulo • I5 = Sorgente Bagno • I6 = Vallone Pinzarino
Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 Datasets and references
Previous studies of scientific literature, Influence of C.C. and water supply in the area of our interest.
In addition, we will develop successive statistical analysis using the following datasets: • historical daily series of rainfall from 1920 to 1999 (SIMN Naples); • historical (ten day) series of flow rate from 1965 to 2006 for Cassano Irpino Springs and from 1920 to 2006 for Caposele Springs.
Annual Mean Rainfall, and Annual mean flow rate, for Cassano Irpino Springs
Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 Case study application : Methods and dataset
• Basin-scale testing of daily precipitation vs. 12 continuous precipitation records for 1961-1990 • Spatial averaging of point values over RCM grid-cells
Water Research Institute, National Research Council Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 www.irsa.cnr.it Impacts on Ground Water Balance Regimes
Development of a downscaling approach based on a Poissonian scheme of the rainfall process
SPACE-TIME DOWNSCALING METHODS
Physical D. ( dynamic D.) Empirical D. • RCM run with boundary c. • Transfer functions from GCM. • Weather -typing • Stochastic Weather Generators Models calibrated on observed properties from real observations Model parameters can de derived from GCM ’s output Suitable for cascade application of impact models for hydrology, ecology, agricultural projections Often used in combination with transfer functions for the spatial downscaling
Water Research Institute, National Research Council Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 www.irsa.cnr.it Case study application : Quantile mapping and CDF anamorphosis for quantitative bias correction
Q-Q plot -Winter 45 40 R*(d) = f (R (d) |O) S*(d) = f (S (d) |O) 35
30
25 f(x(d) |O ) correction function to be adopted in the
RCM 20 SD of the scenario variable (Déqué, 2007) 15
10
5
0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Rainfall distribution curves Observed data Rainfall distribution curves -Winter
Observed data observed data 2 2 RCM 21c (A1B) 10 Corrected RCM 20c 10 Corrected RCM 21c (A1B)
1 1 Q-Q fit 10 f (x) 10
0 0 10 10 precipitation [mm/day] precipitation Precipitation [mm/day]
-1 -1 10 10
-2 -2 10 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 [%] [%]
Water Research Institute, National Research Council Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 www.irsa.cnr.it •Rainfall reductions will be during fall and winter months. •During spring and summer period, rainfall reductions produce a prolonged water deficit period for soil, and consequently reduction of tha amount of groundwater recharge.
•The variability (standard deviation computed using observations and scenario data) of monthly rainfall shows high increase during late fall months.
Water Research Institute, National Research Council Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 www.irsa.cnr.it EvaluationEvaluation ofof thethe impactimpact onon thethe springspring regime.regime. Impact =Out (S) – Out (R) P eff mensili oss/Q med mensili oss 6000 500
450 5000 400
350 4000 300
3000 250 y = -0,1293x + 6782,3 200 2000 150
100 1000 y = 0,0015x + 14,118 50 P eff mensili oss (mm) ossmensili eff P Q med mensili oss (l/s) ossmensilimed Q 0 0 … … … … 95 85 90 93 94 98 99 83 84 88 89 96 97 81 82 86 87 91 92 92 93 93 95 96 96 97 98 98 81 81 82 83 83 85 86 86 87 88 88 90 91 91 ------mag mag mag mag ott ott ott ott set set set set dic dic dic dic apr apr apr apr feb lug giu feb lug giu feb lug giu feb lug giu ago gen gen ago gen ago gen nov nov nov nov mar mar mar Peff (mm) Qm (l/s)
The flowrate trends beetween Observations 900 3000 XX e XXI cen. are similar. XXI century 450 2500 P_Q Simulate 2081 - 2100 5000 600 4500 500 4000 3500 400 3000
2500 y = -0,1179x + 10374 300 2000 200 1500 1000 100 y = 0,0002x + 35,685 P eff mensili simulate (mm) simulatemensilieff P
Q med mensili simulate (l/s) simulatemensilimed Q 500 0 0 81 81 82 82 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 ------lug lug lug lug lug lug lug lug lug lug lug lug lug lug lug lug lug lug lug lug gen gen gen gen gen gen gen gen gen gen gen gen gen gen gen gen gen gen gen gen Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 This feature is highlighted comparing annual trends of mean observed and simulated effective precipitations and flow rates.
Confronto P/Q ann simulate-P/Q ann osservate 5000 1400
4500 Qm_a_sim 2081-2100 1200 4000
3500 1000 Qm_a_oss 1969-1999 3000 800 2500 600 2000 (mm) Peff Peff_ann_sim 2081-2100 Q med med annQ (l/s) 1500 400 1000 200 500 Peff_a_oss 1969-1999
0 0
The gap between observations and projections is about 30% for flow rate and 50% for effective precipitation.
Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 Impacts What are our expectations from CIRCE on Water
This is a crucial field for the improvement of CC impact assessment in Mediterranean water cycle. WP5.1 Atmospheric Water Budget WP5.2 Precipitation Component of Water Cycle WP5.3 Terrestrial Component of Water Cycle WP5 .4 WP5.4 Mediterranean Sea Water Cycle Expectations WP5 .3 1) Integrate overlapping research questions having WP5 .3 WP5 .1 bordering scales of investigation and modeling. 2) Bridge scale gaps by completing the CC WP5 .2 scenarios with information on fundamental climatological variables (local downscaling). 3) Sketch possible futures of fresh water resources in the Mediterranean by way of credible representation of processes at a problem -solving scale. …Water managers ’ perception is that “the future is no longer as it used to be ”. .. and the drought management under climate change… a risk management plan is devoted to support the implementation of mitigation measures
Water Research Institute, National Research Council Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 www.irsa.cnr.it Risk management approach…
It is the opposite of crises management: a proactive approach is taken in advance to drought.
It implies to focus more on the causes of drought impacts than on the effects themselves.
It cannot avoid the negative impacts of drought, but it reduces and mitigates .
A risk management approach to drought management requires to introduce measures to reduce the system vulnerability, in order to reduce the drought impacts.
Water Research Institute, National Research Council Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 www.irsa.cnr.it Risk management approach…
Drought Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability
The assessment of the hazard index requires the analysis (probability) of the physical characteristics of the phenomenon The vulnerability assessment requires to examine the underlying environmental, economic and social factors influencing the severity of drought impacts.
Water Research Institute, National Research Council Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 www.irsa.cnr.it Risk Management approach: Benefits of stakeholders involvement Due to the complexity of drought impacts, the identification and assessment of such Impacts impacts is not an easy task. Local assessement stakeholders are often better placed to detect and evaluate the drought impacts on the socio – environmental system.
If mitigation actions are selected without considering the stakeholders' perceptions Stakeholders of the drought then the actions Mitigation themselves could be considered as involvement policies unsatisfactory by stakeholders or, even worst, not acceptable at all .
The involvement of stakeholders in drought management could increase their Public knowledge about the phenomenon and awareness could have positive effects on their awareness about their role in mitigation policies implementation.
Water Research Institute, National Research Council Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 www.irsa.cnr.it Drought impacts and drought perception: The lake Trasimeno
Drought impacts on the “perceived” environment and on the related water use activities strongly influence stakeholders' perceptions of drought.
The involvement of stakeholders in impacts assessment requires the elicitation and analysis of the different drought perceptions.
Facing a drought phenomenon, stakeholders adopt their own mental models to assess its severity, taking into account additional elements other than just water availability and climatic conditions.
The elicitation of these mental models allow to structure the stakeholders' understanding (perception) of drought impacts.
Water Research Institute, National Research Council Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 www.irsa.cnr.it Drought impacts and drought perception: The lake Trasimeno C1 Level of the lake 1,50 C2 Quality of the lake ecosystem C3 Sectorial approaches to environmental management 1,00 C4 Ecological equilibrium C5 Birds migration flows C6 Livestocks 0,50 C7 Water temperature C8 Amount of algae in the lake 0,00 C9 Bathing in the lake 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 C10 Number of turists C11 Climatic Conditions -0,50 C12 Water salinity C13 Withdraw of water from the lake -1,00 C14 New fish species C15 Health of fish species C16 Drought -1,50 C17 Water quality C18 Agricultural activities -2,00 C19 Water availability
State of the system before the drought onset according to the stakeholder's understanding
C1 Level of the lake 2,00 C2 Quality of the lake ecosystem
C3 Sectorial approaches to environmental management C4 Ecological equilibrium 1,00 Stakeholders Cognitive Map representing his/her C5 Birds migration flows C6 Livestocks understanding of drought impacts. 0,00 C7 Water temperature 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 C8 Amount of algae in the lake C9 Bathing in the lake
-1,00 C10 Number of turists C11 Climatic Conditions C12 Water salinity
-2,00 C13 Withdraw of water from the lake C14 New fish species
C15 Health of fish species
-3,00 C16 Drought C17 Water quality
State of the system during the drought phenomena C18 Agricultural activities
-4,00 C19 Water availability
Water Research Institute, National Research Council Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 www.irsa.cnr.it Drought impacts and drought perception: The lake Trasimeno
• The analysis of stakeholders' drought perception ( nine categories ) allows to define the main drought impacts according to their understanding. • The integration of the different drought perceptions support the integrated assessment of drought impacts.
Stakeholder Ruolo Ente Parco del Trasimeno – Ente di pianificazione territoriale al fine di Comunità Montana supportare lo sviluppo locale Gruppo d'Azione Locale (GAL) Ente di programmazione per lo sviluppo locale ARPA Umbria Agenzia di controllo del territorio e dell'ambiente Coldiretti Associazione di categoria Servizio Turistico del Trasimeno Associazione di categoria Enti locali di pianificazione e controllo del Enti comunali territorio WWF Associazioni ambientaliste Regione Umbria Ente locale di gestione delle risorse ambientali Provincia di Perugia Ente locale di gestione delle risorse ambientali EIUT Ente di gestione della rete di irrigazione
Water Research Institute, National Research Council Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 www.irsa.cnr.it Stakeholders involvement in drought impacts monitoring
Taking into account the spatial and temporal scale issues, the assessment of drought impacts results in a demand to monitor a broad set of variables, with prohibitive costs if the monitoring is only based on traditional scientific methods of measurement.
To address this issue in countries where, due to lack of financial and economical resources, it is infeasible to improve current monitoring system using only traditional scientific methods.
Local communities can be seen as information providers in a monitoring system for drought impacts monitoring.
Water Research Institute, National Research Council Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 www.irsa.cnr.it Stakeholders involvement in drought impacts monitoring The soil salinity monitoring in Amudarya River Basin (Uzbekistan).
Source: WWF
Water Research Institute, National Research Council Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 www.irsa.cnr.it Stakeholders involvement in drought impacts monitoring
Morphology (depression, hill) Number of leaching Amount of water (performed) used for irrigation Evenness Water Quality of the field
Surface Soil colour Leaching Irrigation Distance to the Characteristics after leaching (farmer) (farmer) nearest channel (farmer) (farmer) (WUA chairman, GIS)
Drainage Number of channels Soil Salinity system surrounding the field (WUA chairman, GIS)
Maintenance of drainage channels Groundwater Groundwater (WUA chairman, GIS) Plant growth Soil texture (HE) level salinity (HE, GIS) (HE, GIS) (HE, GIS)
Water Research Institute, National Research Council Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 www.irsa.cnr.it Stakeholders involvement in drought impacts monitoring
Water Research Institute, National Research Council Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 www.irsa.cnr.it Conclusions
Requirements for natural risk management • The prediction and quantification of the physical impacts of climate change in the Mediterranean area (1) • The downscaling from GCM to RCM to HM (1) • The adaptation strategies in water management under climate change (1)
Network of actors to better protect population • The mitigation measures: technological and infrastructural and non-technical measures (2) • The stakeholders involvement: mitigation policies and public awareness (2)
Water Research Institute, National Research Council Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 www.irsa.cnr.it First Geophysical Observatory in the Puglia Region (XIII Century)
Thank you for … From here we’ll try to help your attention… water managers in solving their problems on drought ….
Climate Change Impact Research: Water-related issues
after Milly et al., 2005. Nature, 438(7066), 347–350 [in IPCC 4AR]
Water Research Institute, National Research Council Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 www.irsa.cnr.it PDSI centennial global trend after Dai et al., 2004. [in IPCC 4AR]
Water Research Institute, National Research Council Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 www.irsa.cnr.it