European and Mediterranean Workshop ””ClimateClimate changechange impactimpact onon waterwater --relatedrelated andand marinemarine risksrisks ”” Murcia, October, 26th-27th, 2009 ClimateClimate changeschanges impactsimpacts onon droughtdrought managementmanagement inin MediterraneanMediterranean area:area: howhow toto improveimprove thethe approaches?approaches? M. Vurro(*), E. Bruno, R. Giordano, I. Portoghese, E. Preziosi, E. Romano Water Research Institute, National Research Council, IRSA-CNR, Italy, Roma-Bari Via F. De Blasio, 5 – 70123 Bari ([email protected]) Water Research Institute National Research Council TheThe aimaim ofof thethe presentation:presentation: 1. To identify requirements for natural risk management in the context of increased threats related to climate change consequences . 2. To promote a network of actors to transform such requirements into a better protection of the population against such emerging natural hazards. Water Research Institute, National Research Council Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 www.irsa.cnr.it CIRCE started from… What would we expect from climate change in water-stressed regions? • CIRCE wants to understand and to explain how climate will change in the Mediterranean area. The project will investigate how global and Mediterranean climates interact, how properties of the atmosphere, the radiactive fluxes vary, the interaction between cloudiness and aerosol, the modifications in the water cycle and implications on social and economic sectors. IPCC 4AR • Many semi-arid and arid areas (e.g., the Mediterranean basin , western USA, southern Africa and north-eastern Brazil) are particularly exposed to the impacts of climate change and are projected (with high confidence) to suffer a decrease of water resources due to climate change. • There is an urgent need to understand and quantify the impact of projected climate change on hydrological processes including vegetation and crops (feedbacks). • Linkages between models for climate change and hydrological processes is crude, with models’ scales not relevant for decision making . Water Research Institute, National Research Council Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 www.irsa.cnr.it RL 0 - Coordination and Communication RL 2 - The Mediterranean RL 6 – Extreme Events Region and the Global Climate System RL 7 - Impacts of Global Change on Ecosystems and the RL 3 – Radiation, clouds, services they provide aerosol and climate change RL 11 RL 8 - Air Quality and Climate Identification and RL 4 – ScaleRL 5 Interactions attribution of RL 9 - Human Health and Feedback processes present climate trends Water RL 10 - Economic Impacts of RL 5 - Water Cycle Climate Change Cycle RL 11 Integrating Case Studies RL 12 Relevant Societal Dynamics RL13 Induced Responses and Policies Objective: “Quantify the past variations and future projections in the water cycle in the Mediterranean Environment under global climate changes system.” Water Research Institute, National Research Council Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 www.irsa.cnr.it RL 5 Water Cycle WP2 ) Variations in the precipitation component of the WP1) Analysis of water cycle changes in Atmospheric water budget WP3) Variations in the terrestrial WP4 ) Changes in component of water Mediterranean Sea cycle water cycle and implications for water mass characteristics RACCM (Regional Assessment of Climate Change in Mediterranean Area ) • PART 1 : AIR, SEA AND PRECIPITATION: Past, Current and Future on Ocean, on Atmosphere, on Extremes and on Uncertainty; Mechanisms of climate variability in the Mediterranean Region • PART 2 : WATER: The hydrologic cycle: different components and interactions; Impacts of climate change on surface water, on ground water and coastal aquifer and on water quality. • PART 3 : AGRICULTURE, FORESTS AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES: Climate change impacts on typical Mediterranean crops, forests and forest products, livestock population and productivity and evaluation of adaptation strategies to cope with. Vulnerability assessment of ecosystem services in the Mediterranean region, • PART 4 : PEOPLE: Water for people, Health, The general equilibrium approach, Policy innovation, Future visions of society in the Mediterranean • PART 5 : CASE STUDIES – Coastal Case Studies : Gulf of Valencia (Spain), Gulf of Oran (Algeria), Gulf of Gabes (Tunisia), Western Nile Delta (Egypt) – Rural Case Studies : Tuscany Region (Italy), Puglia Region (Italy), Judean Foothills (Israel), Tel Hadya (Syria). – Urban Case Studies : Alexandria (Egypt), Athens (Greece), Beirut (Lebanon), Water Research Institute, National Research Council Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 www.irsa.cnr.it Springs Area of interest : it is located in Campania, a region of Southern Italy, in which there are not many studies about the relationship between climate change and water supply Springs of interest : our studies are based on two main springs of the area,which are capped by Apulian aqueduct Caposele Sanità Cassano Irpino Water Research Institute, National Research Council Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 www.irsa.cnr.it Geological Characterization Substantial preponderance of Calcareous soil (Cretaceus) with smaller areas especially of Arenaceus soil (Oligocene – Miocene ) Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 Hydrological Characterization Hydrological basins of Cassano Irpino and Caposele Springs. Into these limits there are 5 meteo climatic stations: • M1 = Caposele • M2 = Acerno • M3 = P.no Laceno • M4 = Serrapullo • M5 = Cassano Irpino and 6 hydrometric station: • I1 = Acqua delle Brecce • I2 = Fiume Sele • I3 = V.ne dell’acero • I4 = V.ne Iannarulo • I5 = Sorgente Bagno • I6 = Vallone Pinzarino Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 Datasets and references Previous studies of scientific literature, Influence of C.C. and water supply in the area of our interest. In addition, we will develop successive statistical analysis using the following datasets: • historical daily series of rainfall from 1920 to 1999 (SIMN Naples); • historical (ten day) series of flow rate from 1965 to 2006 for Cassano Irpino Springs and from 1920 to 2006 for Caposele Springs. Annual Mean Rainfall, and Annual mean flow rate, for Cassano Irpino Springs Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 Case study application : Methods and dataset • Basin-scale testing of daily precipitation vs. 12 continuous precipitation records for 1961-1990 • Spatial averaging of point values over RCM grid-cells Water Research Institute, National Research Council Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 www.irsa.cnr.it Impacts on Ground Water Balance Regimes Development of a downscaling approach based on a Poissonian scheme of the rainfall process SPACE-TIME DOWNSCALING METHODS Physical D. ( dynamic D.) Empirical D. • RCM run with boundary c. • Transfer functions from GCM. • Weather -typing • Stochastic Weather Generators Models calibrated on observed properties from real observations Model parameters can de derived from GCM ’s output Suitable for cascade application of impact models for hydrology, ecology, agricultural projections Often used in combination with transfer functions for the spatial downscaling Water Research Institute, National Research Council Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 www.irsa.cnr.it Case study application : Quantile mapping and CDF anamorphosis for quantitative bias correction Q-Q plot -Winter 45 40 R*(d) = f (R (d) |O) S*(d) = f (S (d) |O) 35 30 25 f(x(d) |O ) correction function to be adopted in the RCM 20 SD of the scenario variable (Déqué, 2007) 15 10 5 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Rainfall distribution curves Observed data Rainfall distribution curves -Winter Observed data observed data 2 2 RCM 21c (A1B) 10 Corrected RCM 20c 10 Corrected RCM 21c (A1B) 1 1 Q-Q fit 10 f (x) 10 0 0 10 10 precipitation [mm/day] precipitation Precipitation [mm/day] -1 -1 10 10 -2 -2 10 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 [%] [%] Water Research Institute, National Research Council Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 www.irsa.cnr.it •Rainfall reductions will be during fall and winter months. •During spring and summer period, rainfall reductions produce a prolonged water deficit period for soil, and consequently reduction of tha amount of groundwater recharge. •The variability (standard deviation computed using observations and scenario data) of monthly rainfall shows high increase during late fall months. Water Research Institute, National Research Council Murcia, October, 26 th -27 th , 2009 www.irsa.cnr.it XX e XXI cen. are are similar. ecen. XX XXI The flowrate trends beetween Q med mensili oss (l/s) 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Murcia, October, 26 Murcia, October, Q med mensili simulate (l/s) 0 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 500 Evaluation Evaluation 0 gen -81 gen -81 giu -81 lug -81 nov -81 apr -82 gen -82 set -82 lug -82 feb -83 gen -83 lug -83 lug -83 dic -83 th gen -84 mag … -27 lug -84 ott -84 mar -85 th gen -85 , 2009 of the impact on the onthe impact ofthe ago -85 onthe impact ofthe lug -85 gen -86 gen -86 giu -86 Impact =Out (S) –(S) =Out Impact (R) Out lug -86 nov -86 gen -87 apr -87 lug -87 set -87 oss mensilimed oss/Qmensili eff P gen -88 feb -88 lug -88 -2081Simulate P_Q 2100 lug -88 dic -88 gen -89 mag … y = 0,0002x + 35,685 0,0002x= +y lug -89 10374 -0,1179x+ = y ott -89 gen -90 mar -90 lug -90 ago -90 y = -0,1293x + 6782,3 -0,1293x= + y gen -91 gen -91 0,0015x14,118 = + y lug -91 giu -91 nov -91 gen -92 century XXI Observations 450 900 2500 3000 apr -92 lug -92 set -92 gen -93 feb -93 lug -93 lug -93 gen -94 spring dic -93 spring lug -94 mag … gen -95 ott -94 lug -95 mar -95 Peff (mm) Peff ago(l/s) Qm -95 gen -96 gen -96 lug -96 giu -96 regime. gen -97 nov -96 regime. lug -97 apr -97 gen -98 set -97 lug -98 feb -98 gen -99 lug -98 dic -98 lug -99 mag … gen -00 ott -99 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 50 lug -00 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 0 P eff mensili oss (mm) P eff mensili simulate (mm) This feature is highlighted comparing annual trends of mean observed and simulated effective precipitations and flow rates.