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A Statistical Study of Trends of Rice-Wheat Production on Districts of Western U.P., India

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A Statistical Study of Trends of Rice-Wheat Production on Districts of Western U.P., India Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci (2019) 8(6): 2430-2443 International Journal of Current Microbiology and Applied Sciences ISSN: 2319-7706 Volume 8 Number 06 (2019) Journal homepage: http://www.ijcmas.com Original Research Article https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2019.806.290 A Statistical Study of Trends of Rice-Wheat Production on Districts of Western U.P., India Gopal Krishna Tiwari*, Sri Sunil Kumar, Anvesha Singh and Babulal Department of Agricultural Statistics, Narendra Deva University of Agriculture and Technology, Kumarganj – Ayodhya (UP), 224-229, India *Corresponding author: ABSTRACT K e yw or ds Rice (Oryza sativa L.) and Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) are important constituents of Indian agriculture and nutritional security due to their high yield, economic viability, Rice, Wheat, ability to generate on-farm and off-farm employment so this makes it one of the most Growth, Trend, important cereal crops in India main source of vitamins and minerals such as thiamine, Tabular niacin, iron, riboflavin, vitamin D, calcium, and fiber. Wheat covers approximately 25% of Representation, the total global area devoted to by cereal crops India is the world’s 2nd largest producer Simple Growth Rate (SGR), with approximately 43 mha planted area, accounting for 22% of the world’s rice Compound Growth production. Since the consumption of rice is directly proportional to the population Rate (CGR) growth. Feeding burgeoning population through the next 20-30 years remains a challenging task. Increasing domestic demand owing to population growth should meet the Article Info future challenges of food and nutritional security. On this prospective for the planning purposes decision to invest accordingly for the short and long-term plans, the present study Accepted: 18 May 2019 has been undertaken to evaluate the growth in production, area and productivity of Rice Available Online: and Wheat crops in Top 5 Rice-Wheat Producing districts of Western Uttar Pradesh, India 10 June 2019 by using tabular analysis and different growth models. Introduction Uttar Pradesh is fourth largest state in the country. State covers an area of about 243290 Agriculture in India has a significant history. square km and possesses varied topographic Today India ranks second worldwide in farm features ranging from plain to vindhyan hills. output. India is the second largest producer of Uttar Pradesh is divided in two physiographic wheat and rice, the world’s major staple food. regions viz. Gangatic plain and Southern The government revised upwards total food Plateau. Agriculture is the most important grain production estimates by over one occupation in the state as about 80% of its million tonne to a record 264.38MT for the population resides in rural areas and 75% of agricultural year 2013-14 crop years on the total workers are involved directly or account of record wheat and rice production. indirectly in Farming which accounts for 27% Uttar Pradesh state is situated in North India. of state’s GDP. The state is divided into 4 2430 Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci (2019) 8(6): 2430-2443 regions, namely Western (26 districts), ecosystems, irrigated (21 million ha), rainfed Eastern (28 districts) Central (13 districts) and low land (14 million ha), rainfed upland (6 Bundelkhand (08 districts). At present state million ha) and flood prone (3 million ha). have 75 districts, 327 tehsils, 822 blocks and More than half of rice area (55per cent) is rain 107452 revenue villages. The important crops fed and distribution wise 80 per cent of the include Rice, wheat, maize, sugarcane, potato, rain fed rice area is in eastern India making its etc. Majority of the agricultural land is used to vulnerable to vagaries of monsoon. grow major cereal crops: rice & wheat. Uttar Pradesh is one of the major states of rice Rice growing in the country. It accounts about 13.53 and 13.54 per cent towards the total Rice production in India is an important part acreage and production of the rice in the of the national economy. India is an important country (2011-12). part of the national economy. India is the world’s 2nd largest producer with Rice production in India - 112.91 MT approximately 43 mha planted area, Rice production in UP - 140.22 lakh tons accounting for 22% of the world’s rice production. Wheat Rice (Oryza sativa), one of the three most Wheat is the world’s most widely cultivated Important food grain crops in world, forms food crop. In India it is the second important the staple diet of 2.7 billion people. Its staple food crop. It is over an area of about cultivation is of immense importance to food 215 million hectares with a production of 584 security of Asia, where more than 90% of the million tons of grain (1999). It is called as global rice is produced and consumed. The “King of cereals”. productivity and area of rice has declined during 2000-01 to 2010-11 in all regions of Per cent of gross cropped area in 2013-2014 state. is 40.55. Rice belongs to the genus Oryza, sub tribe Wheat crop needs clay loam or loam texture oryzineae of the family Gramineae. There are and moderate water holding capacity soil and 21 recognized species in genus Oryza. these features are found in Eastern Uttar Pradesh so this region is suitable for wheat Rice is grown in Uttar Pradesh during Kharif production. season from June to October/November. Rice is grown in all types of soils and are most When cultivation of high yielding dwarf suited for its cultivation. The traditional rice varieties of wheat is done with improved farming systems in India broadly include scientific methods, they produce about 45-55 wetland {lowland and upland} system. quintals of grain per hectare under irrigated conditions and 20-25 quintals per hectare The life cycle can be divided into 3 important under rainfed conditions. Wheat contains phases, i.e. vegetative, reproductive and gluten which is essential for baking. For safe ripening. Rice produces 32-59 per cent of the storage moisture content of grain should be dietary energy and 25-40 per cent of dietary 10-12 percent. protein in 39 countries. Annually rice is grown in44.6 million hectares under 4 major Wheat production in India- 99.70 million tons 2431 Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci (2019) 8(6): 2430-2443 Materials and Methods Trend and growth rate The present study was primarily based on the The trend and growth rate in area, production time series secondary data Production, Area and productivity of different food grain crops and Productivity of Rice –Wheat crops in have been worked out by fitting the following districts of western Uttar Pradesh in hectare, five different functions: tonne, kg/ha from 1996-97 to 2014- 15 are extracted from the published sources like Simple linear function Sankhikiya Patrika, Agricultural Statistics at a Glance, etc. Yt = a + bt + µt Effect of change in area and productivity Compound function on differential production of crops t Yt = at (1+r) µt An attempt has been made to study the effect of change in area and productivity of crops on Where, differential production between two points of time. Yt: Time series data on area/production/productivity of different food Let P, A and Y be the production, area and grain crops at time t, a & b are parameters of productivity of a particular crop at a given the function to be estimated. point of time. The P can be expressed as t: Time index (t = 1, 2, …..n) P = Y.A r: Average compound growth rate per annum. Let ∆P, ∆A and ∆Y be the change in production, area and productivity of the crop t: error term at t and is assumed to follow after specific period of time. So we have independently distributed P+∆P = (A+∆A) (Y+∆Y) However, before the fitting above functions, P+∆P = AY+∆AY+A∆Y+∆A∆Y the time series data on area and production were smoothed by three years moving- Therefore we have average method. ∆P = ∆AY+A∆Y+∆A∆Y Computation of growth rate Thus the total differential production consists For linear function of three components: After fitting the linear trend function by least- ∆AY = Effect of change in area of crop square method, we get the estimate of b bˆ A∆Y = Effect of change in productivity of denoted by (say). Then, annual linear crop simple growth rate (S.G.R.) is computed as follows ∆A∆Y = Interaction effect due to change in bˆ area and productivity of crop. x 100 SGR (%) = Y 2432 Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci (2019) 8(6): 2430-2443 Perusal of above Table 1(a) shows that: Where, Y is arithmetic mean of Yt. Highest percent change shown by Agra Compound growth rate district in Rice followed by Bulandshr and Aligarh district. To obtain annual compound growth rate, the Highest percent change shown by Mainpuri third function was first linearised by taking district in wheat followed by Pilibhit and natural log on both side, i.e. Bijnor district. Y * a * bt Production of Rice declined being maximum log Y = log a + t log (1+r) or t t in Muzzafarnagar followed by Amroha and * Ghaziabad. Y t Where, =log Yt, a* = log a and b= log (1+r) Production of wheat declined being maximum in Ghaziabad followed by Moradabad and The above linearized function was fitted by Muzaffarnagar. ˆ least square method and estimate of b as b The decline is caused by division of districts was obtained. into new districts: The annual compound growth rate is then Hapur from Ghaziabad; Shamli from computed as Muzaffarnagar and Sambhal from Moradabad Perusal of above Table 1(b) shows that: CGR (%) = (antilog of -1) x 100 Highest percent change shown by Agra All growth rates are expressed in percentage district in Rice followed by Bulandshr and (%).
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