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THE GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK RBC Investment Strategy Committee THE GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK RBC Investment Strategy Committee SPRING 2015 THE RBC INVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE The RBC Investment Strategy Committee consists of senior investment professionals drawn from across RBC Global Asset Management. The Committee regularly receives economic and capital markets related input from internal and external sources. Important guidance is provided by the Committee’s regional advisors (North America, Europe, Far East), from the Global Fixed Income & Currencies Subcommittee and from the global equity sector heads (financials and healthcare, consumer discretionary and consumer staples, industrials and utilities, energy and materials, telecommunications and technology). From this it builds a detailed global investment forecast looking one year forward. The Committee’s view includes an assessment of global fiscal and monetary conditions, projected economic growth and inflation, as well as the expected course of interest rates, major currencies, corporate profits and stock prices. From this global forecast, the RBC Investment Strategy Committee develops specific guidelines that can be used to manage portfolios. These include: the recommended mix of cash, fixed income instruments, and equities the recommended global exposure of fixed income and equity portfolios the optimal term structure for fixed income investments the suggested sector and geographic make-up within equity portfolios the preferred exposure to major currencies Results of the Committee’s deliberations are published quarterly in The Global Investment Outlook. CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 The Global Investment Outlook Sarah Riopelle, CFA – V.P. & Senior Portfolio Manager, RBC Global Asset Management Inc. Daniel E. Chornous, CFA – Chief Investment Officer, RBC Global Asset Management Inc. ECONOMIC & CAPITAL MARKETS FORECASTS 4 RBC Investment Strategy Committee RECOMMENDED ASSET MIX 5 RBC Investment Strategy Committee CAPITAL MARKETS PERFORMANCE 8 Milos Vukovic, MBA, CFA – Vice President & Head of Investment Policy, RBC Global Asset Management Inc. GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 11 Slumping oil, printing anew, bailout sorrow, Russia blue Eric Lascelles – Chief Economist, RBC Global Asset Management Inc. John Richards, CFA – Analyst, Global Equities, RBC Global Asset Management Inc. Daniel E. Chornous, CFA – Chief Investment Officer, RBC Global Asset Management Inc. GLOBAL FIXED INCOME MARKETS 42 Soo Boo Cheah, CFA – Senior Portfolio Manager, RBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited Suzanne Gaynor – V.P. & Senior Portfolio Manager, RBC Global Asset Management Inc. CURRENCY MARKETS 47 Dagmara Fijalkowski, MBA, CFA – Head, Global Fixed Income and Currencies (Toronto and London), RBC Global Asset Management Inc. REGIONAL EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK United States 56 Raymond Mawhinney – Senior V.P. & Senior Portfolio Manager, RBC Global Asset Management Inc. Brad Willock, CFA – V.P. & Senior Portfolio Manager, RBC Global Asset Management Inc. Canada 58 Stuart Kedwell, CFA – Senior V.P. & Senior Portfolio Manager, RBC Global Asset Management Inc. Europe 60 David Lambert – Portfolio Manager, RBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited Asia 62 Mayur Nallamala – Head & Senior Portfolio Manager, RBC Investment Management (Asia) Limited Emerging Markets 64 Christoffer Enemaerke – Analyst, RBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited RBC INVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE 66 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Sarah Riopelle, CFA Daniel E. Chornous, CFA Vice President & Senior Portfolio Manager Chief Investment Officer RBC Global Asset Management Inc. RBC Global Asset Management Inc. For capital markets, 2015 has so far featured considerable uncertainty. Energy prices have convulsed, the Fed is planning its first rate hike in many years as other central banks are again easing policy, the European Commission is facing more challenges from Greece, Russian aggression and ISIS atrocities are dominating the news and, as before, global growth and inflation remain sluggish. We have lowered our economic forecasts slightly for 2015. Nevertheless, it is important not to overstate the extent of these challenges on our forecast revisions as the global economy still looks set to produce better economic growth than last year. Lowering growth forecasts, but the next several quarters. A price of inflation rates will slip by more still cautiously optimistic around $80 per barrel should balance than the market is assuming in the medium-term supply and demand. near term, as the indirect effects of Despite our forecast revisions, we While oil-producing corporations and lower oil prices trickle through the continue to believe that both global oil-exporting countries have been system, and we have aggressively and developed-world economic punished in the markets, beneficiaries cut our inflation forecasts to reflect growth will improve in 2015, and of low oil prices form a far larger list this. However, with oil prices likely again in 2016. Our forecasts are than that of countries that suffer. rising substantially by the end of all on or above consensus with the Among those that come out ahead the year and given our longstanding exception of Canada (due to oil), are such goliaths as the Eurozone, opinion that there may be less China (due to credit) and Russia (due Japan, China and India and the U.S. economic slack in developed-world to oil and sanctions). Much of our (which produces a large amount of oil economies than commonly imagined, cautious optimism stems from the but consumes even more). In fact, G7 inflation should rebound by 2016. anticipated potency of sharply lower economies have historically managed oil prices, a new round of monetary substantially faster growth after Continued U.S. dollar strength stimulus that has pushed bond yields periods of declining oil prices. The dollar bull market is in full even lower, and more competitive swing, with various factors playing exchange rates. We also believe that Inflation remains low a role in its strength at different the global business cycle should Global inflation continues to fall. times. Most recently, expectations be capable of extending its gains Both the Eurozone and U.S. now of rate normalization by the Fed and given the historical precedent that have consumer prices that are lower consequences of the spectacular deep recessions and financial crises than a year ago. While deflation fall in oil prices have dominated are usually followed by a longer- can have negative consequences, a investors’ attention. The fact that than-normal period of expansion. fair chunk of the current downward other key central banks are pushing Oil prices continue to languish trend in consumer prices falls into on the monetary accelerator adds to the category of “good” deflation as the potential for this U.S. dollar bull The sharp decline in energy prices it originates from supply-side and/ market to unfold like others have, with remains a key global theme. In our or external shocks, as opposed currencies of the major U.S. trading view, oil prices have overshot fair value to anemic demand. We suspect partners falling into oversold territory. and so should rise significantly over 2 I THE GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK RBC INVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE Spring 2015 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • Sarah Riopelle, CFA • Daniel E. Chornous, CFA Central banks tilt toward returns for bond holders across most bull phase may be a poor model going dovish stance investment horizons. forward. A variety of indicators – including the depth of the last market Although the next policy move for the Equity returns will depend and valuations at its conclusion – Fed is very clearly to raise interest more on earnings suggest that the way ahead may rates, other central banks have moved feature firm and durable bull phases Following a volatile start to the year, in the opposite direction. The European interrupted by brief and comparatively global equities have risen to new Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan mild corrections. (BOJ) in particular are delivering more highs, pushing most major indexes than enough stimulus to offset the Fed closer to fair value. While higher Relative return potential valuations do not necessarily place and, as a result, there is no shortage favours stocks of money in the world today, with the the bull market at risk, we expect consequences continuing to be felt via more modest total returns and higher Our analysis of prospective total ultra-low yields around the world. volatility going forward. As valuations returns continues to favour equities become less supportive, the market over bonds across most time frames. Bond yields likely to rise, but will depend on profit growth for In fact, while we have lowered our will remain low returns. We have experienced fairly total-return expectations for stocks substantial downgrades to earnings to reflect higher valuations and Global bond yields remain at very expectations in recent months due to tamer earnings forecasts, sovereign low levels. We continue to believe the significant decline in oil and the bonds are expected to produce low that bond yields will begin to rise this stronger U.S. dollar. Although lower or negative total returns through the year, with the most obvious catalyst earnings growth is seldom positive for relevant investment periods. being the beginning of a tightening stocks, these downgrades have been cycle in the U.S. In addition, the narrowly focused on these two themes, Reflecting all of this, we have ECB, BOJ and other central banks and are not indicative of a broad-based maintained our overweight position
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