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MIDDLE EAST STRATEGY TASK FORCE Final Report of the Co-Chairs CO-CHAIRS Madeleine K

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MIDDLE EAST STRATEGY TASK FORCE Final Report of the Co-Chairs CO-CHAIRS Madeleine K CO-CHAIRS Madeleine K. Albright Stephen J. Hadley EXECUTIVE TEAM Stephen Grand Jessica P. Ashooh MIDDLE EAST STRATEGY TASK FORCE Final Report of the Co-Chairs CO-CHAIRS Madeleine K. Albright Stephen J. Hadley EXECUTIVE TEAM Stephen Grand Jessica P. Ashooh MIDDLE EAST STRATEGY TASK FORCE Final Report of the Co-Chairs Task Force Executive Team Madeleine K. Albright and Stephen J. Hadley, Co-Chairs Stephen Grand, Executive Director Jessica P. Ashooh, Deputy Director Aysha A. Chowdhry, Counselor to Mr. Hadley Jacob Freedman, Counselor to Secretary Albright Stefanie Hausheer Ali, Associate Director for Programs Andrea Taylor, Associate Director Adam Simpson, Project Assistant Atlantic Council Institutional Leadership Frederick Kempe, President and CEO Barry Pavel, Senior Vice President, Arnold Kanter Chair, and Director, Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security Frederic C. Hof, Director, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East Mirette F. Mabrouk, Deputy Director and Director of Research and Programs, The Atlantic Council is a nonpartisan organization that promotes constructive US leadership Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East and engagement in international affairs based on the central role of the Atlantic community in meeting today’s global challenges. © 2016 The Atlantic Council of the United States. All rights reserved. No part of this publication Working Group Conveners may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the Atlantic Council, except in the case of brief quotations in news articles, critical articles, Geneive Abdo, Atlantic Council or reviews. Please direct inquiries to: Tamara Cofman Wittes, The Brookings Institution Atlantic Council, 1030 15th Street, NW, 12th Floor, Washington, DC 20005 Manal Omar, United States Institute of Peace (202) 463-7226, www.AtlanticCouncil.org Kenneth Pollack, The Brookings Institution ISBN: 978-1-61977-519-0 Christopher Schroeder, Author and Entrepreneur This report is written and published in accordance with the Atlantic Council Policy on Intellectual Sherif Kamel, American University in Cairo Independence. The authors are solely responsible for its analysis and recommendations. The Atlantic Council and its donors do not determine, nor do they necessarily endorse or advocate for, any of this report’s conclusions. November 2016 Senior Advisers List SENIOR ADVISERS LIST This report represents the conclusions of the Co-Chairs only. While the Senior Advisers were closely consulted throughout the duration of the Task Force, their participation and their acknowledgment here do not represent an endorsement of this text in whole or part. Additionally, Senior Advisers have participated in their individual, not institutional, capacities. Dr. Abdlatif Al-Hamad Director General, Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development, State of Kuwait H.R.H. Prince Turki Al-Faisal Al Saud Chairman, King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz Former Prime Minister, Islamic Republic of Pakistan Mr. Ayman Asfari Group Chief Executive of Petrofac Limited and Chairman, Asfari Foundation Dr. José Manuel Barroso Former President, European Commission Mr. Stephen Biegun Former Executive Secretary, National Security Council Prime Minister Carl Bildt Former Prime Minister, Kingdom of Sweden Mr. Rafic A. Bizri President and CEO, Hariri Interests Minister Emma Bonino Former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Italian Republic Amb. Nicholas Burns Professor, Harvard University, and Former Under Secretary of State Amb. Mark Green President, International Republican Institute Amb. Wolfgang Ischinger Former Ambassador to the United States, Federal Republic of Germany i Middle East Strategy Task Force Senior Advisers List Final Report of the Co-Chairs Minister Igor S. Ivanov Ms. Frances Townsend Former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Russian Federation Former Assistant to the President for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism, The White House Minister Moushira Khattab Former Minister of Family and Population, Arab Republic of Egypt Ms. Toni Verstandig Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of Near Eastern Amb. Jean-David Levitte Affairs; Executive Vice President, S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Former Senior Diplomatic Adviser to the Presidency and Ambassador to the Peace United States, French Republic Mr. Kenneth Wollack Ms. Nancy Lindborg President, National Democratic Institute President, United States Institute of Peace Minister Yaşar Yakış Mr. David Miliband Former Foreign Minister, Republic of Turkey Former UK Foreign Secretary; President and CEO, International Rescue Committee Mr. Michael Morell Former Acting Director, US Central Intelligence Agency Dr. Vali R. Nasr Dean, Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University Amb. Francis J. Ricciardone President, American University in Cairo Dr. Mowaffak al Rubaie Former Member of Parliament and National Security Advisor, Republic of Iraq Dr. Abdel Monem Said Aly Chairman of the Board and CEO, Al-Masry Al-Youm Mr. Naguib Sawiris Executive Chairman and CEO, Orascom Telecom Media and Technology Holding Amb. Sir Nigel Sheinwald Former Ambassador to the United States, United Kingdom Minister Javier Solana Former Secretary General, NATO Admiral James Stavridis Former Supreme Allied Commander, NATO ii iii CONTENTS Executive Summary ................................................................................... 1 A Message from the Co-Chairs .................................................................9 Chapter 1: The Stakes .............................................................................. 13 Chapter 2: How We Got Here ................................................................ 20 Chapter 3: Guiding Principles for a Strategy ........................................45 Chapter 4: Elements of a Strategy .........................................................49 Chapter 5: Winding Down the Violence ................................................56 Chapter 6: Unlocking the Region’s Human Potential ....................... 80 Chapter 7: Conclusion ...........................................................................102 Acknowledgments ..................................................................................104 Appendix ..................................................................................................106 Executive Summary EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Middle East1 is not condemned to a debilitating cycle of conflict. There is nothing inevitable or unfixable about what ails the states of the region today. Still, the current reality is alarmingly clear: a global crisis emanating from the Middle East convulsing much of the region in instability and violence, while projecting the threat and reality of terrorism and disruption far beyond. That threat and that reality are palpable, but so is the prospect for a better future. There are opportunities in the Middle East, not just challenges. To be able to harness these opportunities, it is necessary to change the political trajectory of the region from state failure and civil war toward a stable and peaceful order of sovereign states. It goes without saying that the states and peoples of the Middle East have the greatest stake in what happens there. Yet the United States also has vital interests that impact both the lives and livelihoods of Americans and their families: keeping citizens safe from terrorism; protecting the US economy; empowering friends and allies; enabling American global military operations; preventing the spread of weapons of mass destruction; and averting destabilizing humanitarian disasters. Advancing American interests will require far more than a unilateral “American strategy.” Outsiders cannot fix what ails the Middle East. Neither can they avoid its global consequences through some combination of defense, disengagement, and containment. The current crisis in the Middle East is not containable. Isolationism is a dangerous illusion. A New Strategic Approach Led by the Region What we propose here is a New Strategic Approach emphasizing partnership. Under this New Approach, the leaders and peoples of the region must take full responsibility for charting a new, positive vision for their societies. At the same time, outsiders such as the United States would work to help resolve the violent conflicts that currently stand in the way of achieving any region-led vision. This New Strategic Approach is a bet on the people of the region. The partnership that it envisions reaches out to the full range of regional actors, not just governments. Youth, women, private business, local civic groups, 1 For the purposes of this report, we define the Middle East as encompassing the Arab countries, Israel, Turkey, and Iran. 1 Middle East Strategy Task Force Executive Summary Final Report of the Co-Chairs entrepreneurs, philanthropists, educators, and engaged citizens all have a role enable provinces and local governments to assume greater responsibility to play. What is required is a Whole-of-Region approach. for their citizens and to give their citizens a greater voice in their nation’s future. This is a New Model of National Governance with relevance not The New Strategic Approach envisions a two-pronged action agenda, just to states emerging from civil war, but also to states of the region implemented simultaneously. External powers will take the lead along with seeking enhanced legitimacy and greater support from their people. regional actors
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