THE SKEPTICAL INTELLIGENCER The Quarterly Magazine of ASKE THE ASSOCIATION FOR SKEPTICAL ENQUIRY Vol 16, 2013, Number 4 (Winter) Incorporating the Skeptical Adversaria: the ASKE Newsletter ________________________________________________________________________ Edited by Michael Heap To access a pdf copy of this issue, please contact the Editor at [email protected] . If you are an ASKE member and would like a paper copy sending, again email the Editor. CONTENTS Guidelines for Authors Regular features: From the ASKE Chairman 1 Of Interest 16 Logic and Intuition 2 Upcoming Events 19 Medicine on the Fringe 3 Logic and Intuition Answers 20 Language on the Fringe 4 About ASKE 21 The European Scene 16 Stop press 21 Articles: Bigfoot Talk: Claims regarding the ‘language’ of cryptids. Part 2: The data by Mark Newbrook 7 Book reviews and commentaries Strange Linguistics: A skeptical linguistic looks at non-mainstream ideas about language by Ray Ward 13 Skeptical Intelligencer , Winter 2013 GUIDELINES FOR AUTHORS The Skeptical Intelligencer welcomes formal and List multiple references in date order: e.g. informal contributions on any subject within the ‘...a number of studies have thrown doubt on ambit of the Association for Skeptical Enquiry this claim (Zack, 1986; Al-Issa, 1989; (ASKE). Erikson, 1997)...’ Formal articles should be aimed at the • In the case of electronic material, give the intelligent layperson, and authors should take author and the date the material was accessed particular care to define or explain unusual terms on line or concepts. Equations, statistics or other • Place Internet addresses URLs in angle numerical and symbolic tools may be employed brackets: e.g. <http://www.nothing.org> whenever required. Articles should be as A complete list of references in alphabetical succinct as possible, but may be of any length. order of authors’ surnames should be given at the Authors of contributions to the Skeptical end of the article. The list should be compiled Intelligencer should be take care to ensure that using the following conventions: texts are temperate in tone and free of Articles : Smith, L.J. (1990) An examination of vituperation. They should also ensure that astrology. Astrological Journal , 13 , 132-196. arguments are either supported by express • Books : Naranjo, X. (1902) The End of the evidence/arguments or identified as speculative. Road . London: University of London. ‘Do not pretend conclusions are certain that are • Chapters : Griff, P. (1978) Creationism. In D. not demonstrated or demonstrable.’ (T.H. Greengage (ed.) Pseudoscience . Boston: Huxley). Chapman Publishers. Before being accepted for publication, • Electronic material : Driscoe, E. Another submitted texts will be reviewed by the Editor look at Uri Geller. <http://www.etc.org>. and any appropriate advisors. Where Accessed 21 April 1997. improvements or changes are desirable, the Unless otherwise agreed or indicated, all editorial team will work with authors and make original material published in the Skeptical constructive suggestions as to amendments. Intelligencer is copyright by the Association for Authors should submit an electronic, double- Skeptical Enquiry. spaced copy of their article or letter. For further information contact the editor, Dr. When referring to another work, authors should: Michael Heap at [email protected] . • Cite only the surname, year, and (where appropriate) page number within the main text: e.g. ‘...according to Hyman (1985: p. 123), the results of this test were not convincing...’ or ‘...according to Bruton (1886; cited in Ross, 1996)...’ Skeptical Intelligencer , Winter 2013 FROM THE ASKE CHAIRMAN Michael Heap Why are rates of recorded crime read a journal paper on the theory, a next to nothing about epigenetic falling? pile of which he had left by the inheritance but it struck me that this is In October this year I attended a entrance. The theory is: testosterone is the kind of process that someone could symposium on falling crime rates and reduced in obese men; low testosterone easily run away with into all sorts of their probable causes (note 1) . For level in men is associated with reduced places where it has little business. about the last 10 years or more crime tendency to criminal activity; the Epigenetic inheritance and criminal generally (and most kinds of crimes) incidence of obesity is rising; hence behaviour? Sure enough, a Google has been falling in the UK whereas it crime will fall. search reveals what seems to be a had been constantly rising prior to that, The symposium did not address respectable field of scientific study. particularly from the 1960s onwards. several other explanations that have How influential will this become in our One possible cause suggested most been put forward in recent years: criminal justice system? Let’s see. recently (but not discussed at the abortion having a disproportionate Reduced street lighting and symposium) is the manipulation of the culling effect on prospective criminals crime figures by the police, either by not prior to birth; the phasing out of leaded Sometimes an action will not have the recording crimes at all or by petrol; longer prison sentences obvious effect that one would predict – downgrading the seriousness of (inmates tend to be repeat offenders hence the need for good evidence. In recorded offences (note2) . Skeptics but they can’t offend while they’re in September the Shropshire Star (note 4) will not be incredulous in the face of jail); and robust (zero-tolerance) reported that 854 people, mainly from this allegation; where it is policing methods. Some explanations the north of Shrewsbury had signed a advantageous to them, say to of rising or geographical differences in petition asking Shropshire Council to demonstrate improved performance or crime rate don’t fare too well - e.g. reverse a policy which had so far seen to meet targets, people will adjust the unemployment and inequality. around 5,000 street lights switched off data accordingly, even unconsciously. __________________________ between midnight and 5.30am. The Despite this, criminologists in the main petition was prompted by a burglary in agree that the fall in crime is genuine: Each speaker had his own the locality. Residents wanted the it has been reported in very many favoured explanation and lights back on to deter crime and help countries and is apparent in victim presented data that seemed to people feel safer in their homes. surveys as well as crimes recorded by convincingly support it. However, a report advised councillors the police. __________________________ to keep the policy, which will The symposium revealed a Maybe there is not just one eventually be extended to 12,600 street phenomenon that is of interest to explanation and maybe some of the lights throughout Shropshire. The skeptics: each speaker had his own contributing factors are very subtle and report said that in northern favoured explanation and presented Shrewsbury, the number of crimes data that seemed to convincingly difficult to measure. Predicting the behaviour of a single human being is reported between April and June 2012 support it. For one speaker it was hard enough, so predicting the – when lights were on all night – was increased security: as the number of behaviour of thousands of interacting 11. In the same period in 2013 when offences of a particular category rises, humans is pretty impossible (cue for the lights were off, there were 10 so do security and preventative efforts reported crimes. so that the rising trend is eventually economists to comment). reversed (‘crime is self-limiting’). This Keep an eye on epigenetics Notes theory seems to work best for vehicle At the beginning of December the 1. http://www.shef.ac.uk/polopoly_fs/1. theft and burglary. Another explanation media were excited by a study in the 270173!/file/MLRProgramme.pdf was low inflation – that is, crime rises journal Nature Neuroscience (note 3) 2. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukn with inflation because of the greater which reported that the fear response ews/crime/10511503/Fall-in-crime- demand for stolen goods, and hence conditioned to an olfactory stimulus in overstated-says-expert.html more acquisitive crime and more mice before conception may be 3. http://www.nature.com/neuro/journal violence associated with it. A transferred to the next generation and /vaop/ncurrent/full/nn.3594.html questioner from the audience, even the one afterwards, seemingly by 4. http://www.shropshirestar.com/news/ interestingly an economist, promoted the process of epigenetic inheritance environment/2013/09/28/street-lights- an endocrinological explanation and (changes in gene expression without switch-on-appeal-faces-refusal/ invited the audience and speakers to changes in the DNA sequence). I know 1 Skeptical Intelligencer , Winter 2013 LOGIC AND INTUITION Designing Psychological Experiments Designing an experiment to test a explanations for any positive results picture, studies that for two minutes, prediction based on some hypothesis observed. In the field of experimental and so on until she has looked at all concerning human psychology is parapsychology, the reports of five pictures separately. deceptively difficult (this may well be extraordinary positive findings have In another room, the other true of other disciplines). Partly owing often been discredited because the participant is informed about what her to this, the psychological research experimenters have overlooked some twin sister is doing and she is also literature is notoriously adversarial; simple way in which, for example, shown the five pictures. For each of the proponents of one particular theory information supposedly conveyed two-minute intervals that her twin will publish the results of an telepathically could have been sister is studying one of the pictures, experiment they have conducted that communicated by more obvious ways, she has to think about her and guess purports to support their theory and even those that involve cheating. which of the pictures she is looking at.