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Identifying the Effects of Lean Construction Principles on Variability of Project Duration a Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Sc

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Identifying the Effects of Lean Construction Principles on Variability of Project Duration a Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Sc IDENTIFYING THE EFFECTS OF LEAN CONSTRUCTION PRINCIPLES ON VARIABILITY OF PROJECT DURATION A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF NATURAL AND APPLIED SCIENCES OF THE MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY BY HACI HÜSEYİN EROL IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN CIVIL ENGINEERING JUNE 2014 Approval of the thesis: IDENTIFYING THE EFFECTS OF LEAN CONSTRUCTION PRINCIPLES ON VARIABILITY OF PROJECT DURATION submitted by HACI HÜSEYİN EROL in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Civil Engineering Department, Middle East Technical University by, Prof. Dr. Canan Özgen Dean, Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences Prof. Dr. Ahmet Cevdet Yalçıner Head of Department, Civil Engineering Prof. Dr. İrem Dikmen Toker Supervisor, Civil Engineering Dept., METU Prof. Dr. M. Talat Birgönül Co-Supervisor, Civil Engineering Dept., METU Examining Committee Members: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Rıfat Sönmez Civil Engineering Dept., METU Prof. Dr. İrem Dikmen Toker Civil Engineering Dept., METU Prof. Dr. M. Talat Birgönül Civil Engineering Dept., METU Asst. Prof. Dr. Aslı Akçamete Civil Engineering Dept., METU Gülşah Dağkıran, M. Sc. GAMA Holding Date: 20.06.2014 I hereby declare that all information in this document has been obtained and presented in accordance with academic rules and ethical conduct. I also declare that, as required by these rules and conduct, I have fully cited and referenced all material and results that are not original to this work. Name, Last name : Hacı Hüseyin Erol Signature : iv ABSTRACT IDENTIFYING THE EFFECTS OF LEAN CONSTRUCTION PRINCIPLES ON VARIABILITY OF PROJECT DURATION Erol, Hacı Hüseyin M.Sc., Department of Civil Engineering Supervisor: Prof. Dr. İrem Dikmen Toker Co-Supervisor: Prof. Dr. M. Talat Birgönül June 2014, 173 pages Performance of the construction projects have been criticized for many years due to their low productivity rates and cost overruns as well as significant delays. Increasing number of dissatisfied customers compel practitioners to reform conventional practices of construction management. Lean construction emerges as a result of change efforts in the industry. Lean construction promises a much better project performance by eliminating the waste and improving value to customer. Although many practical application techniques of lean construction are developed, researches showing tangible benefits of them are scarce. For this purpose, this study aims to quantitatively evaluate the effects of lean construction principles on project duration and its variation. In this respect, starting from lean production subject, lean construction concept is reviewed in detail and a research methodology is developed. The methodology is based on comparing the lean and non-lean scenarios of a case study by means of Monte Carlo simulation model. Data used in the model is generated with a questionnaire responded by three experts. Research findings demonstrate that lean construction principles improve the performance both by reducing total duration of the project and its variation. The findings of this thesis cannot be generalized and this improvement may v not be true for all types of construction projects. However, case study findings reveal that applying lean principles may have a potential to overcome delays and decrease unpredictability of construction project durations. Keywords: Lean construction, lean construction principles, Monte Carlo simulation, construction industry, lean production vi ÖZ YALIN İNŞAAT PRENSİPLERİNİN PROJE SÜRESİNİN DEĞİŞKENLİĞİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİNİN SAPTANMASI Erol, Hacı Hüseyin Yüksek Lisans, İnşaat Mühendisliği Bölümü Tez Yöneticisi: Prof. Dr. İrem Dikmen Toker Ortak Tez Yöneticisi: Prof. Dr. M. Talat Birgönül Haziran 2014, 173 sayfa İnşaat projelerinin performansı, düşük verimlilik oranları ve bütçe aşımlarının yanı sıra ciddi gecikmeler nedeniyle de uzun yıllardan beri eleştirilmektedir. Sayıları artmakta olan memnuniyetsiz müşteriler, proje uygulayıcılarını geleneksel yapım yönetimi yöntemlerini yeniden düzenlemeye zorlamaktadırlar. Yalın inşaat, inşaat endüstrisindeki değişim çabalarının bir sonucu olarak ortaya çıkmıştır. Yalın inşaat, fireyi yok ederek ve müşteriye yönelik değeri arttırarak daha iyi bir proje performansı vaat etmektedir. Her ne kadar, yalın inşaatın birçok pratik uygulama yöntemi geliştirilmiş olsa da, bu yöntemlerin somut faydalarını gösteren araştırmalar kısıtlıdır. Bu amaçla bu çalışma; yalın inşaat prensiplerinin proje süresine ve sürenin değişkenliğine olan etkilerini nicel olarak değerlendirmeyi hedeflemektedir. Bu bağlamda; yalın üretim konusundan başlanarak, yalın inşaat kavramı detaylı bir şekilde gözden geçirilmiş ve bir araştırma yöntemi geliştirilmiştir. Bu yöntem; örnek bir vakanın, yalın ve yalın olmayan senaryolarını Monte Carlo benzetimi yapan bir modelle karşılaştırmaya dayalıdır. Modelde kullanılan veri üç adet uzman tarafından cevaplanan bir anket aracılığıyla oluşturulmuştur. Araştırma bulguları yalın inşaat yöntemlerinin proje performansını; hem toplam süreyi, hem de toplam sürenin vii değişkenliğini azaltması yönünden geliştirdiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Bu tezin bulguları genelleştirilemeyebilir ve bahsi geçen geliştirmeler her tür inşaat projesi için geçerli olmayabilir. Ancak vaka çalışması bulguları; yalın prensipleri uygulamanın, süre aşımlarının önüne geçmek ve inşaat projelerinin tahmin edilemezliğini azaltmak için bir potansiyele sahip olabileceğini göstermektedir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Yalın inşaat, yalın inşaat yöntemleri, Monte Carlo benzetimi, inşaat endüstrisi, yalın üretim viii Dedicated to my lovely family and dear Bilgenur... ix ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to express my deep gratitude to my supervisors Prof. Dr. İrem Dikmen Toker and Prof. Dr. M. Talat Birgönül for their invaluable contributions to this study. They always supported, encouraged, and guided me patiently throughout my research. I would like to gratefully thank to Kerem Tanboğa for his vital support and suggestions. I am also grateful to Assoc. Prof. Dr. Rıfat Sönmez and Emre Caner Akçay for their contributions. I am sincerely thankful to my mother Güler Erol and my father Ruhi Enver Erol. They dedicated their lives to me. They are the reasons of all things that I succeeded in my life. I am very proud of being their son. I am also very thankful to my dear sister Anıl Erol Tunçay for her priceless love. She and her husband Ferhat Tunçay continuously motivated me throughout this study. I also thank to all my relatives for their love. I would like to give my special thanks to dear Bilgenur Keskin. She tolerated all of my negative aspects during this research, and always made me smile. She makes me complete and gives the encouragement that I need to overcome the difficulties. I am very thankful to her as I feel like the luckiest person in the planet. Besides, I appreciate to her mother Asuman Keskin for her motivation and delicious foods; and to her brother Alper Keskin for his moral support. I want to thank to my colleagues Gözde Bilgin, Bartuğ Kemal Akgül, Şemsettin Balta, Görkem Eken, and Onur Çoban; and to my friends Murat Yeğin, İldem Kayışoğlu, Sıla Gülgeç, Erman Güngör, Onur Kurtar, Burak Dündar, Alper Çam, Mert Aker, and Ahmet Öztürk for their invaluable helps, great friendships, and continuous supports. Finally, I would like to express my eternal gratitude to the founder of the Republic of Turkey: Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. He not only provided me an independent research environment but also gave me courage, discipline, and faith. No one deserves more appreciation than he does. x TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................ v ÖZ ............................................................................................................................. vii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ........................................................................................ x TABLE OF CONTENTS ........................................................................................... xi LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................... xv LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................... xviii LIST OF ABBREVATIONS ................................................................................... xxi CHAPTERS 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................... 1 2 LEAN PRODUCTION ........................................................................................ 5 2.1 The Evolution of Toyota .............................................................................. 6 2.2 Toyota Production System ........................................................................... 7 2.2.1 Focus areas of Toyota Production System ........................................... 9 2.2.1.1 Elimination of waste .................................................................... 9 2.2.1.2 Cost reduction ............................................................................ 11 2.2.1.3 Increasing productivity............................................................... 11 2.2.1.4 Improving quality ....................................................................... 11 2.2.1.5 Ensuring safety ........................................................................... 12 2.2.1.6 Promoting morale values ..........................................................
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