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Shock RBI Governor Resignation Creates More Uncertainties Global Economics & Markets Research Email: [email protected] URL: www.uob.com.sg/research Macro + FX Strategy India: Shock RBI Governor Resignation Creates More Uncertainties Tuesday, 11 December 2018 Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Urjit Patel quit with immediate effect on Monday (10 Dec) citing “personal reasons”, cutting short his three-year term which was to end in September 2019. His resignation came amidst several high-profile clashes between the government and RBI over a number of issues including the extent to which the banks are to recognize non-performing assets, Ho Woei Chen the injection of liquidity into the stressed non-banking finance sector, and higher dividend payment Economist [email protected] to the government to help narrow the fiscal deficit. The unexpected move also came ahead of RBI’s last board meeting scheduled this Friday (14-Dec) where governance changes are expected to be Peter Chia discussed. Senior FX Strategist [email protected] With intensifying concerns over the RBI’s independence, Moody’s has said that any attempt by the government to curtail the central bank’s independence would be credit negative. Fitch has also weighed in to say that Patel’s resignation has raised the macroeconomic risks. The RBI is expected to name an interim governor for the central bank soon with speculation pointing to N. S. Vishwanathan, currently the most senior of the four deputies at the central bank. Potential candidates for the next governor are said to include Vishwanathan, former RBI deputy governor Subir Gokarn as well as several names of current and former Finance Ministry officials. We expect monetary policy continuity though bias could turn more dovish, continuing on Patel’s comment at the December monetary policy meeting that there is the possibility of “commensurate policy actions” if inflation continues to undershoot which seemed to suggest room to cut interest rates. The RBI has kept its benchmark repo rate unchanged at 6.50% in the last two meetings (October and December) but shifted to “calibrated tightening” stance from “neutral” since October despite the sharp revision in its near-term inflation forecast. Taking into account of the sudden departure of Governor Patel and the softer inflation and growth outlook, RBI is expected to tilt towards a rate hold at the February 2019 meeting while a rate cut cannot be ruled out if the growth outlook weakens further. Oil price trajectory and the progression in Fed’s monetary tightening which will affect the country’s inflation, trade balance and currency are key indicators to watch. Uncertainties Over RBI May Have Solidified USD/INR’s Recent Bottom At 70 The Indian rupee, INR has reacted negatively to Patel’s sudden resignation. It fell 0.65% to 71.83 per USD on Tuesday after dropping 0.74% on Monday. Concerns over RBI’s independence and a potential dovish change in the monetary policy stance are likely to keep the INR on the defensive, threatening to undo part of INR’s 5.9% gains against the USD in November. In our latest quarterly report published last Friday (7-Dec, see report here), we had highlighted a likelihood of USD/INR bottoming at around 70 in the near term before heading higher in 2019, underpinned by a challenging macro outlook for India. Also, the USD is also supported by further rate hikes by the Fed (we expect 1 hike in December and 3 more hikes in 2019). As such, we reiterate of USD/INR point forecasts at 71 in 1Q19, 72 in 2Q19 and 73 in 3Q and 4Q19. India: Shock RBI Governor Resignation Creates More Uncertainties Tuesday, 11 December 2018 1 I Page Inflation Was Mostly Contained Under Governor Urjit Patel Source: Macrobond, UOB Global Economics & Markets Research India: Shock RBI Governor Resignation Creates More Uncertainties Tuesday, 11 December 2018 2 I Page Recent Publications China: Export And Import Growth Slowed Sharply In November, 10 December 2018 Malaysia: Foreign Selling Resumes In November, 07 December 2018 Quarterly Global Outlook 1Q 2019, 07 December 2018 India: RBI Stays Unchanged For Second Straight Meeting As Growth And Inflation Moderate, 05 December 2018 Malaysia: October Exports Keep Pace With Region, 05 December 2018 Philippines: Inflation Eases To 6.0% In November, 05 December 2018 AUD Falls As Australia’s Economy Slows Sharply, 05 December 2018 RBA Makes Final Rate Call For 2018, 04 December 2018 Indonesia: Inflation Continued Edging Higher In November, 03 December 2018 US-China: Achieving Temporary Ceasefire On Trade Tariffs At G20, 03 December 2018 Scan the QR Code for a list of all our reports Disclaimer This publication is strictly for informational purposes only and shall not be transmitted, disclosed, copied or relied upon by any person for whatever purpose, and is also not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country where such distribution or use would be contrary to its laws or regulations. This publication is not an offer, recommendation, solicitation or advice to buy or sell any investment product/securities/instruments. Nothing in this publication constitutes accounting, legal, regulatory, tax, financial or other advice. Please consult your own professional advisors about the suitability of any investment product/securities/ instruments for your investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. The information contained in this publication is based on certain assumptions and analysis of publicly available information and reflects prevailing conditions as of the date of the publication. Any opinions, projections and other forward-looking statements regarding future events or performance of, including but not limited to, countries, markets or companies are not necessarily indicative of, and may differ from actual events or results. The views expressed within this publication are solely those of the author’s and are independent of the actual trading positions of United Overseas Bank Limited, its subsidiaries, affiliates, directors, officers and employees (“UOB Group”). Views expressed reflect the author’s judgment as at the date of this publication and are subject to change. UOB Group may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in the securities/instruments mentioned in the publication. UOB Group may have also issued other reports, publications or documents expressing views which are different from those stated in this publication. Although every reasonable care has been taken to ensure the accuracy, completeness and objectivity of the information contained in this publication, UOB Group makes no representation or warranty, whether express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness and objectivity and accept no responsibility or liability relating to any losses or damages howsoever suffered by any person arising from any reliance on the views expressed or information in this publication. India: Shock RBI Governor Resignation Creates More Uncertainties Tuesday, 11 December 2018 3 I P a g e.
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