Chapter 14 Thunderstorm Fundamentals
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A Local Large Hail Probability Equation for Columbia, Sc
EASTERN REGION TECHNICAL ATTACHMENT NO. 98-6 AUGUST, 1998 A LOCAL LARGE HAIL PROBABILITY EQUATION FOR COLUMBIA, SC Mark DeLisi NOAA/National Weather Service Forecast Office West Columbia, SC Editor’s Note: The author’s current affiliation is NWSFO Mt. Holly, NJ. 1. INTRODUCTION Skew-T/Hodograph Analysis and Research Program, or SHARP (Hart and Korotky Billet et al. (1997) derived a successful 1991). The dependent variable, hail diameter probability of large hail (diameter greater than or the absence of hail, was derived from or equal to 0.75 inch) equation as an aid in spotter reports for the CAE warning area from National Weather Service (NWS) severe May, 1995 through September, 1996. There thunderstorm warning operations. Hail of that were 136 cases used to develop the regression diameter or larger requires a severe equation. thunderstorm warning be issued by NWS offices. Shortly thereafter, a Weather The LPLH was verified using 69 spotter Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR- reports from the period September, 1996 88D) radar probability of severe hail (POSH) through September, 1997. The POSH was became available for warning operations (Witt verified as well. Verification statistics et al. 1998). This study recreates the steps included the Brier score and the chi-square taken in Billet et al. (1997) to derive a local (32) statistic. probability of large hail equation (LPLH) for the Columbia, SC National Weather Service The goal of this study was to develop an Forecast Office (CAE) warning area, and it objective method to estimate the probability assesses the utility of the LPLH relative to the of large hail for use in forecast operations. -
A Comparison of Precipitation from Maritime and Continental Air
254 BULLETIN AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY A Comparison of Precipitation from Maritime and Continental Air GEORGE S. BENTON 1 and ROBERT T. BLACKBURN 2 OR many decades, knowledge of atmospheric These 123 periods of precipitation for 1946 were F movements of water vapor has lagged behind grouped as indicated below. Classifications for other phases of meteorological information. In which precipitation was necessarily from maritime recent years, however, the accumulation of upper- air are marked with an asterisk; classifications for air data has stimulated hydrometeorological re- which precipitation was necessarily from contin- search. One interesting problem considered has ental air are marked with a double asterisk. For been the source of precipitation classified accord- all other classifications, precipitation may have ing to air mass. occurred either from maritime or continental air, In 1937 Holzman [2] advanced the hypothesis depending upon the individual circumstances. that the great majority of precipitation comes from maritime air masses. Although meteorologists I. Cold front have generally been willing to accept this hypothe- A. Pre-frontal precipitation sis on the basis of their qualitative familiarity with *1. MT present throughout tropo- atmospheric phenomena, little has been done to sphere determine quantitatively the percentage of pre- **2. cP present throughout tropo- cipitation which can actually be traced to maritime sphere air. Certainly the precipitation from continental 3. MT overriding cP in warm sec- air masses must be measurable and must vary in tor importance from region to region. B. Post-frontal precipitation In the course of an analysis of the role of the 1. MT overriding cP atmosphere in the hydrologic cycle [1], the au- *a. -
Air Masses and Fronts
CHAPTER 4 AIR MASSES AND FRONTS Temperature, in the form of heating and cooling, contrasts and produces a homogeneous mass of air. The plays a key roll in our atmosphere’s circulation. energy supplied to Earth’s surface from the Sun is Heating and cooling is also the key in the formation of distributed to the air mass by convection, radiation, and various air masses. These air masses, because of conduction. temperature contrast, ultimately result in the formation Another condition necessary for air mass formation of frontal systems. The air masses and frontal systems, is equilibrium between ground and air. This is however, could not move significantly without the established by a combination of the following interplay of low-pressure systems (cyclones). processes: (1) turbulent-convective transport of heat Some regions of Earth have weak pressure upward into the higher levels of the air; (2) cooling of gradients at times that allow for little air movement. air by radiation loss of heat; and (3) transport of heat by Therefore, the air lying over these regions eventually evaporation and condensation processes. takes on the certain characteristics of temperature and The fastest and most effective process involved in moisture normal to that region. Ultimately, air masses establishing equilibrium is the turbulent-convective with these specific characteristics (warm, cold, moist, transport of heat upwards. The slowest and least or dry) develop. Because of the existence of cyclones effective process is radiation. and other factors aloft, these air masses are eventually subject to some movement that forces them together. During radiation and turbulent-convective When these air masses are forced together, fronts processes, evaporation and condensation contribute in develop between them. -
Lecture 7. More on BL Wind Profiles and Turbulent Eddy Structures in This
Atm S 547 Boundary Layer Meteorology Bretherton Lecture 7. More on BL wind profiles and turbulent eddy structures In this lecture… • Stability and baroclinicity effects on PBL wind and temperature profiles • Large-eddy structures and entrainment in shear-driven and convective BLs. Stability effects on overall boundary layer structure Above the surface layer, the wind profile is also affected by stability. As we mentioned previously, unstable BLs tend to have much more well-mixed wind profiles than stable BLs. Fig. 1 shows observations from the Wangara experiment on how the velocity defects and temperature profile are altered by BL stability (as measured by H/L). Within stability classes, the velocity profiles collapse when scaled with a velocity scale u* and the observed BL depth H, but there is a large difference between the stability classes. Baroclinicity We would expect baroclinicity (vertical shear of geostrophic wind) to also affect the observed wind profile. This is most easily seen for a laminar steady-state Ekman layer in a geostrophic wind with constant vertical shear ug(z) = (G + Mz, Nz), where M = -(g/fT0)∂T/∂y, N = (g/fT0)∂T/∂x. The momentum equations and BCs are: -f(v - Nz) = ν d2u/dz2 f(u - G - Mz) = ν d2v/dz2 u(0) = 0, u(z) ~ G + Mz as z → ∞. v(0) = 0, v(z) ~ Nz as z → ∞. The resultant BL velocity profile is the classical Ekman layer with the thermal wind added onto it. u(z) = G(1 - e-ζ cos ζ) + Mz, (7.1) 1/2 v(z) = G e- ζ sin ζ + Nz. -
A Study of Synoptic-Scale Tornado Regimes
Garner, J. M., 2013: A study of synoptic-scale tornado regimes. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., 8 (3), 1–25. A Study of Synoptic-Scale Tornado Regimes JONATHAN M. GARNER NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK (Submitted 21 November 2012; in final form 06 August 2013) ABSTRACT The significant tornado parameter (STP) has been used by severe-thunderstorm forecasters since 2003 to identify environments favoring development of strong to violent tornadoes. The STP and its individual components of mixed-layer (ML) CAPE, 0–6-km bulk wind difference (BWD), 0–1-km storm-relative helicity (SRH), and ML lifted condensation level (LCL) have been calculated here using archived surface objective analysis data, and then examined during the period 2003−2010 over the central and eastern United States. These components then were compared and contrasted in order to distinguish between environmental characteristics analyzed for three different synoptic-cyclone regimes that produced significantly tornadic supercells: cold fronts, warm fronts, and drylines. Results show that MLCAPE contributes strongly to the dryline significant-tornado environment, while it was less pronounced in cold- frontal significant-tornado regimes. The 0–6-km BWD was found to contribute equally to all three significant tornado regimes, while 0–1-km SRH more strongly contributed to the cold-frontal significant- tornado environment than for the warm-frontal and dryline regimes. –––––––––––––––––––––––– 1. Background and motivation As detailed in Hobbs et al. (1996), synoptic- scale cyclones that foster tornado development Parameter-based and pattern-recognition evolve with time as they emerge over the central forecast techniques have been essential and eastern contiguous United States (hereafter, components of anticipating tornadoes in the CONUS). -
Soaring Weather
Chapter 16 SOARING WEATHER While horse racing may be the "Sport of Kings," of the craft depends on the weather and the skill soaring may be considered the "King of Sports." of the pilot. Forward thrust comes from gliding Soaring bears the relationship to flying that sailing downward relative to the air the same as thrust bears to power boating. Soaring has made notable is developed in a power-off glide by a conven contributions to meteorology. For example, soar tional aircraft. Therefore, to gain or maintain ing pilots have probed thunderstorms and moun altitude, the soaring pilot must rely on upward tain waves with findings that have made flying motion of the air. safer for all pilots. However, soaring is primarily To a sailplane pilot, "lift" means the rate of recreational. climb he can achieve in an up-current, while "sink" A sailplane must have auxiliary power to be denotes his rate of descent in a downdraft or in come airborne such as a winch, a ground tow, or neutral air. "Zero sink" means that upward cur a tow by a powered aircraft. Once the sailcraft is rents are just strong enough to enable him to hold airborne and the tow cable released, performance altitude but not to climb. Sailplanes are highly 171 r efficient machines; a sink rate of a mere 2 feet per second. There is no point in trying to soar until second provides an airspeed of about 40 knots, and weather conditions favor vertical speeds greater a sink rate of 6 feet per second gives an airspeed than the minimum sink rate of the aircraft. -
American Meteorological Society Revised Manuscript Click Here to Download Manuscript (Non-Latex): JAMC-D-14-0252 Revision3.Docx
AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a preliminary PDF of the author-produced manuscript that has been peer-reviewed and accepted for publication. Since it is being posted so soon after acceptance, it has not yet been copyedited, formatted, or processed by AMS Publications. This preliminary version of the manuscript may be downloaded, distributed, and cited, but please be aware that there will be visual differences and possibly some content differences between this version and the final published version. The DOI for this manuscript is doi: 10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0252.1 The final published version of this manuscript will replace the preliminary version at the above DOI once it is available. If you would like to cite this EOR in a separate work, please use the following full citation: Wang, Y., and B. Geerts, 2015: Vertical-plane dual-Doppler radar observations of cumulus toroidal circulations. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol. doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-14- 0252.1, in press. © 2015 American Meteorological Society Revised manuscript Click here to download Manuscript (non-LaTeX): JAMC-D-14-0252_revision3.docx Vertical-plane dual-Doppler radar observations of cumulus toroidal circulations Yonggang Wang1, and Bart Geerts University of Wyoming Submitted to J. Appl. Meteor. Climat. October 2014 Revised version submitted in May 2015 1 Corresponding author address: Yonggang Wang, Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Wyoming, Laramie WY 82071, USA; email: [email protected] 1 Profiling dual-Doppler radar observations of cumulus toroidal circulations 2 3 Abstract 4 5 6 High-resolution vertical-plane dual-Doppler velocity data, collected by an airborne profiling 7 cloud radar in transects across non-precipitating orographic cumulus clouds, are used to examine 8 vortical circulations near cloud top. -
More Observations of Small Funnel Clouds and Other Tubular Clouds
3714 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 133 PICTURE OF THE MONTH More Observations of Small Funnel Clouds and Other Tubular Clouds HOWARD B. BLUESTEIN School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma (Manuscript received 14 March 2005, in final form 20 May 2005) ABSTRACT In this brief contribution, photographic documentation is provided of a variety of small, tubular-shaped clouds and of a small funnel cloud pendant from a convective cloud that appears to have been modified by flow over high-altitude mountains in northeast Colorado. These funnel clouds are contrasted with others that have been documented, including those pendant from high-based cumulus clouds in the plains of the United States. It is suggested that the mountain funnel cloud is unique in that flow over high terrain is probably responsible for its existence; other types of small funnel clouds are seen both over elevated, mountainous terrain and over flat terrain at lower elevations. 1. Introduction which the benign funnel clouds occur so that if they are observed, severe weather warnings are not issued. Fur- Bluestein (1994) and others (e.g., Doswell 1985, p. thermore, the small funnel clouds are of interest in their 107; McCaul and Blanchard 1990) have documented, in own right because their dynamics are not well under- the plains of the United States, small funnel clouds pen- stood, and they have not been discussed in the litera- dant from convective clouds whose updrafts appear to ture to the much greater extent that the dynamics of be rooted above the boundary layer. Above many of tornadoes have (e.g., Davies-Jones 1986). -
The Lagrange Torando During Vortex2. Part Ii: Photogrammetry Analysis of the Tornado Combined with Dual-Doppler Radar Data
6.3 THE LAGRANGE TORANDO DURING VORTEX2. PART II: PHOTOGRAMMETRY ANALYSIS OF THE TORNADO COMBINED WITH DUAL-DOPPLER RADAR DATA Nolan T. Atkins*, Roger M. Wakimoto#, Anthony McGee*, Rachel Ducharme*, and Joshua Wurman+ *Lyndon State College #National Center for Atmospheric Research +Center for Severe Weather Research Lyndonville, VT 05851 Boulder, CO 80305 Boulder, CO 80305 1. INTRODUCTION studies, however, that have related the velocity and reflectivity features observed in the radar data to Over the years, mobile ground-based and air- the visual characteristics of the condensation fun- borne Doppler radars have collected high-resolu- nel, debris cloud, and attendant surface damage tion data within the hook region of supercell (e.g., Bluestein et al. 1993, 1197, 204, 2007a&b; thunderstorms (e.g., Bluestein et al. 1993, 1997, Wakimoto et al. 2003; Rasmussen and Straka 2004, 2007a&b; Wurman and Gill 2000; Alexander 2007). and Wurman 2005; Wurman et al. 2007b&c). This paper is the second in a series that pre- These studies have revealed details of the low- sents analyses of a tornado that formed near level winds in and around tornadoes along with LaGrange, WY on 5 June 2009 during the Verifica- radar reflectivity features such as weak echo holes tion on the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Exper- and multiple high-reflectivity rings. There are few iment (VORTEX 2). VORTEX 2 (Wurman et al. 5 June, 2009 KCYS 88D 2002 UTC 2102 UTC 2202 UTC dBZ - 0.5° 100 Chugwater 100 50 75 Chugwater 75 330° 25 Goshen Co. 25 km 300° 50 Goshen Co. 25 60° KCYS 30° 30° 50 80 270° 10 25 40 55 dBZ 70 -45 -30 -15 0 15 30 45 ms-1 Fig. -
Laboratory Studies of Turbulent Mixing J.A
Laboratory Studies of Turbulent Mixing J.A. Whitehead Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA Laboratory measurements are required to determine the rates of turbulent mixing and dissipation within flows of stratified fluid. Rates based on other methods (theory, numerical approaches, and direct ocean measurements) require models based on assumptions that are suggested, but not thoroughly verified in the laboratory. An exception to all this is recently provided by direct numerical simulations (DNS) mentioned near the end of this article. Experiments have been conducted with many different devices. Results span a wide range of gradient or bulk Richardson number and more limited ranges of Reynolds number and Schmidt number, which are the three most relevant dimensionless numbers. Both layered and continuously stratified flows have been investigated, and velocity profiles include smooth ones, jets, and clusters of eddies from stirrers or grids. The dependence of dissipation through almost all ranges of Richardson number is extensively documented. The buoyancy flux ratio is the turbulent kinetic energy loss from raising the potential energy of the strata to loss of kinetic energy by viscous dissipation. It rises from zero at small Richardson number to values of about 0.1 at Richardson number equal to 1, and then falls off for greater values. At Richardson number greater than 1, a wide range of power laws spanning the range from −0.5 to −1.5 are found to fit data for different experiments. Considerable layering is found at larger values, which causes flux clustering and may explain both the relatively large scatter in the data as well as the wide range of proposed power laws. -
Use Style: Paper Title
Environmental Conditions Producing Thunderstorms with Anomalous Vertical Polarity of Charge Structure Donald R. MacGorman Alexander J. Eddy NOAA/Nat’l Severe Storms Laboratory & Cooperative Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies Studies Affiliation/ Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/OAR Norman, Oklahoma, USA Norman, Oklahoma, USA [email protected] Earle Williams Cameron R. Homeyer Massachusetts Insitute of Technology School of Meteorology, Univ. of Oklhaoma Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA Norman, Oklahoma, USA Abstract—+CG flashes typically comprise an unusually large Tessendorf et al. 2007, Weiss et al. 2008, Fleenor et al. 2009, fraction of CG activity in thunderstorms with anomalous vertical Emersic et al. 2011; DiGangi et al. 2016). Furthermore, charge structure. We analyzed more than a decade of NLDN previous studies have suggested that CG activity tends to be data on a 15 km x 15 km x 15 min grid spanning the contiguous delayed tens of minutes longer in these anomalous storms than United States, to identify storm cells in which +CG flashes in most storms elsewhere (MacGorman et al. 2011). constituted a large fraction of CG activity, as a proxy for thunderstorms with anomalous vertical charge structure, and For this study, we analyzed more than a decade of CG data storm cells with very low percentages of +CG lightning, as a from the National Lightning Detection Network throughout the proxy for thunderstorms with normal-polarity distributions. In contiguous United States to identify storm cells in which +CG each of seven regions, we used North American Regional flashes constituted a large fraction of CG activity, as a proxy Reanalysis data to compare the environments of anomalous for storms with anomalous vertical charge structure. -
Squall Lines: Meteorology, Skywarn Spotting, & a Brief Look at the 18
Squall Lines: Meteorology, Skywarn Spotting, & A Brief Look At The 18 June 2010 Derecho Gino Izzi National Weather Service, Chicago IL Outline • Meteorology 301: Squall lines – Brief review of thunderstorm basics – Squall lines – Squall line tornadoes – Mesovorticies • Storm spotting for squall lines • Brief Case Study of 18 June 2010 Event Thunderstorm Ingredients • Moisture – Gulf of Mexico most common source locally Thunderstorm Ingredients • Lifting Mechanism(s) – Fronts – Jet Streams – “other” boundaries – topography Thunderstorm Ingredients • Instability – Measure of potential for air to accelerate upward – CAPE: common variable used to quantify magnitude of instability < 1000: weak 1000-2000: moderate 2000-4000: strong 4000+: extreme Thunderstorms Thunderstorms • Moisture + Instability + Lift = Thunderstorms • What kind of thunderstorms? – Single Cell – Multicell/Squall Line – Supercells Thunderstorm Types • What determines T-storm Type? – Short/simplistic answer: CAPE vs Shear Thunderstorm Types • What determines T-storm Type? (Longer/more complex answer) – Lot we don’t know, other factors (besides CAPE/shear) include • Strength of forcing • Strength of CAP • Shear WRT to boundary • Other stuff Thunderstorm Types • Multi-cell squall lines most common type of severe thunderstorm type locally • Most common type of severe weather is damaging winds • Hail and brief tornadoes can occur with most the intense squall lines Squall Lines & Spotting Squall Line Terminology • Squall Line : a relatively narrow line of thunderstorms, often