MARKETS AND PROFITABILITY

Market Analytics: Linear Alpha Olefins - 2020 Butene-1, Hexene-1

December 2020

Market Analytics: Linear Alpha Olefins - 2020

Contents

1 Executive Summary ...... 1 1.1 Overview ...... 1 1.2 Global Alpha Olefin Markets ...... 2 1.3 Butene-1 ...... 5 1.4 Hexene-1 ...... 6 1.5 Market Coverage ...... 7 2 The Linear Alpha Olefins Industry ...... 8 2.1 Introduction ...... 8 2.2 End-Use Overview ...... 9 2.2.1 Polyolefins ...... 9 2.2.2 Polyalpha Olefins ...... 10 2.2.3 Detergent Intermediates ...... 10 2.2.3.1 Detergent Range Alcohols ...... 10 2.2.3.2 Linear Alkylbenzene ...... 11 2.2.3.3 Alpha Olefin Sulfonates ...... 11 2.2.3.4 Alkyl Amines ...... 11 2.2.4 Linear Plasticiser Alcohols ...... 11 2.2.5 Other Applications ...... 12 2.2.5.1 Paper Sizing Agents ...... 12 2.2.5.2 Oil Field Chemicals ...... 12 2.2.5.3 Polybutene-1 ...... 12 2.2.5.4 Miscellaneous ...... 12 2.3 Production Technology ...... 14 2.3.1 Commercial Full-Range Alpha Olefins Technology ...... 14 2.3.1.1 Chevron Phillips Chemical ...... 14 2.3.1.2 INEOS ...... 15 2.3.1.3 Shell ...... 15 2.3.1.4 Idemitsu ...... 15 2.3.1.5 SABIC ...... 15 2.3.2 Commercial On-Purpose Processes ...... 15 2.3.3 Non-Commercial Processes ...... 16 2.3.3.1 Full Range Processes ...... 16 2.3.3.2 On-Purpose Processes ...... 16 2.3.3.3 Octene-1 ...... 17 2.4 Global Alpha Olefins Overview ...... 18 2.4.1 Global ...... 18 2.4.1.1 Consumption ...... 18 2.4.1.2 Supply ...... 20 2.4.1.3 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 21 2.4.2 North America ...... 22 2.4.2.1 Consumption ...... 22

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2.4.2.2 Supply ...... 24 2.4.3 South America ...... 27 2.4.3.1 Consumption ...... 27 2.4.3.2 Supply ...... 27 2.4.4 Western Europe ...... 29 2.4.4.1 Consumption ...... 29 2.4.4.2 Supply ...... 30 2.4.5 Central Europe ...... 32 2.4.5.1 Consumption ...... 32 2.4.5.2 Supply ...... 32 2.4.6 Eastern Europe ...... 33 2.4.6.1 Consumption ...... 33 2.4.6.2 Supply ...... 34 2.4.7 Middle East ...... 37 2.4.7.1 Consumption ...... 37 2.4.7.2 Supply ...... 38 2.4.8 Africa ...... 40 2.4.8.1 Supply ...... 41 2.4.9 Asia Pacific ...... 43 2.4.9.1 Supply ...... 44 3 Butene-1 ...... 49 3.1 Global ...... 49 3.1.1 Consumption ...... 49 3.1.2 Supply ...... 51 3.1.3 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 52 3.2 North America ...... 54 3.2.1 Consumption ...... 54 3.2.2 Supply ...... 56 3.2.3 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 57 3.3 South America ...... 59 3.3.1 Consumption ...... 59 3.3.2 Supply ...... 61 3.3.3 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 62 3.4 Western Europe ...... 63 3.4.1 Consumption ...... 63 3.4.2 Supply ...... 64 3.4.3 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 66 3.5 Central Europe ...... 67 3.5.1 Consumption ...... 67 3.5.2 Supply ...... 68 3.5.3 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 68 3.6 Eastern Europe ...... 69 3.6.1 Consumption ...... 69 3.6.1.1 Russia ...... 69

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3.6.1.2 Other Eastern Europe ...... 70 3.6.2 Supply ...... 72 3.6.2.1 Russia ...... 72 3.6.2.2 Other Eastern Europe ...... 73 3.6.3 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 74 3.6.3.1 Russia ...... 74 3.6.3.2 Other Eastern Europe ...... 75 3.7 Middle East ...... 77 3.7.1 Consumption ...... 77 3.7.2 Supply ...... 78 3.7.3 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 80 3.8 Africa ...... 81 3.8.1 Consumption ...... 81 3.8.2 Supply ...... 82 3.8.3 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 83 3.9 Asia Pacific ...... 84 3.9.1 Consumption ...... 84 3.9.2 Supply ...... 86 3.9.3 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 88 4 Hexene-1 ...... 90 4.1 Global ...... 90 4.1.1 Consumption ...... 90 4.1.2 Supply ...... 92 4.1.3 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 93 4.2 North America ...... 95 4.2.1 Consumption ...... 95 4.2.2 Supply ...... 96 4.2.3 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 97 4.3 South America ...... 98 4.3.1 Consumption ...... 98 4.3.2 Supply ...... 98 4.3.3 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 99 4.4 Western Europe ...... 100 4.4.1 Consumption ...... 100 4.4.2 Supply ...... 101 4.4.3 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 102 4.5 Central Europe ...... 103 4.5.1 Consumption ...... 103 4.5.2 Supply ...... 103 4.5.3 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 104 4.6 Eastern Europe ...... 105 4.6.1 Consumption ...... 105 4.6.1.1 Russia ...... 105 4.6.1.2 Other Eastern Europe ...... 106

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4.6.2 Supply ...... 107 4.6.2.1 Russia ...... 107 4.6.2.2 Other Eastern Europe ...... 107 4.6.3 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 108 4.6.3.1 Russia ...... 108 4.6.3.2 Other Eastern Europe ...... 109 4.7 Middle East ...... 111 4.7.1 Consumption ...... 111 4.7.2 Supply ...... 112 4.7.3 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 113 4.8 Africa ...... 114 4.8.1 Consumption ...... 114 4.8.2 Supply ...... 115 4.8.3 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 116 4.9 Asia Pacific ...... 117 4.9.1 Consumption ...... 117 4.9.2 Supply ...... 118 4.9.3 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 120

Appendices A Methodology ...... 123 A.1 Market Dynamics Forecasting Methodology ...... 123 A.1.1 Capacity Availability and Forecasting ...... 123 A.1.1 End-Use Consumption Forecasting ...... 123 A.1.1.1 End-Use Sector Growth ...... 124 A.1.1.2 Penetration (New Application Growth) ...... 124 A.1.1.3 Short-term Influences ...... 125 A.1.2 Monomer Consumption Forecasting ...... 125 A.1.3 Production and Trade Forecasting ...... 126

Figures Figure 1 Alpha Olefin Market Segments ...... 1 Figure 2 Linear Alpha Olefins Demand by Fraction, 2020-e ...... 2 Figure 3 Linear Alpha Olefin Demand by Region, 2020-e ...... 3 Figure 4 Global Alpha Olefin Demand by Region ...... 3 Figure 5 Global Alpha Olefin Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 4 Figure 6 Global Butene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 5 Figure 7 Global Hexene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 6 Figure 8 Alpha Olefin Market Segments ...... 8 Figure 9 Model Alpha Olefin Distributions ...... 14 Figure 10 Sasol Alpha Olefin Distribution ...... 16 Figure 11 Linear Alpha Olefin Demand by Fraction, 2020-e ...... 18 Figure 12 Linear Alpha Olefins Demand by End-Use, 2020-e ...... 18 Figure 13 Linear Alpha Olefin Demand by Region, 2020-e ...... 19

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Market Analytics: Linear Alpha Olefins - 2020

Figure 14 Linear Alpha Olefin Demand by Region ...... 19 Figure 15 Alpha Olefin Growth Rates, 2020-2025 ...... 20 Figure 16 Global LAO Capacity Additions for On-Purpose and Full-Range ...... 20 Figure 17 Global Linear Alpha Olefin Supply/Demand Balance ...... 21 Figure 18 Global LAO Net Trade Pattern ...... 21 Figure 19 North America Alpha Olefin Demand by End-Use, 2020-e ...... 23 Figure 20 Location of North America Alpha Olefin Producers ...... 25 Figure 21 Location of Alpha Olefin Plants in the USGC ...... 26 Figure 22 South America Alpha Olefin Consumption by Carbon Number, 2020-e ...... 27 Figure 23 Location of Alpha Olefin Plants in South America ...... 28 Figure 24 Western Europe Alpha Olefin Demand by Carbon Number, 2020-e ...... 29 Figure 25 Location of Alpha Olefin Plants in Western Europe ...... 31 Figure 26 Russia Alpha Olefin Consumption by Carbon Number, 2020-e ...... 33 Figure 27 Other Eastern Europe Alpha Olefin Consumption by Carbon Number, 2020-e...... 34 Figure 28 Location of Alpha Olefin Plants in Russia ...... 35 Figure 29 Location of Alpha Olefin Plants in Other Eastern Europe ...... 36 Figure 30 Middle East Alpha Olefin Consumption by Carbon Number, 2020-e ...... 38 Figure 31 Location of Alpha Olefin Plants in Middle East ...... 39 Figure 32 Africa Olefin Consumption by Carbon Number, 2020-e ...... 40 Figure 33 Location of Alpha Olefin Plants in Africa ...... 42 Figure 34 Asia Pacific Alpha Olefin Demand by Comonomer, 2020-e ...... 44 Figure 35 Location of major Alpha Olefin Plants in China ...... 46 Figure 36 Location of Alpha Olefin Plants in Japan and Korea ...... 47 Figure 37 Location of Alpha Olefin Plants in South-East Asia ...... 47 Figure 38 Location of Alpha Olefin Plants in India ...... 48 Figure 39 Global Butene-1 Consumption by End-Use ...... 49 Figure 40 Global Butene-1 Demand by Region, 2020-e ...... 50 Figure 41 Global Butene-1 Consumption by Region ...... 50 Figure 42 Global Butene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 52 Figure 43 Global Butene-1 Inter-Regional Trade ...... 53 Figure 44 North America Butene-1 Demand by End-Use ...... 55 Figure 45 North America Butene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 58 Figure 46 South America Butene-1 Consumption by End-Use ...... 60 Figure 47 South America Butene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 62 Figure 48 Western Europe Butene-1 Consumption by End-Use ...... 64 Figure 49 Western Europe Butene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 66 Figure 50 Central Europe Butene-1 Consumption by End-Use ...... 67 Figure 51 Central Europe Butene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 68 Figure 52 Russia Butene-1 Consumption by End-Use ...... 69 Figure 53 Other Eastern Europe Butene-1 Consumption by End-Use...... 71 Figure 54 Russia Butene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 74 Figure 55 Other Eastern Europe Butene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade...... 75 Figure 56 Eastern Europe Butene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 76 Figure 57 Middle East Butene-1 Consumption by End-Use ...... 78

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Market Analytics: Linear Alpha Olefins - 2020

Figure 58 Middle East Butene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 80 Figure 59 Africa Butene-1 Consumption by End-Use ...... 81 Figure 60 Africa Butene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 83 Figure 61 Asia Pacific Butene-1 Consumption by End-Use ...... 85 Figure 62 Asia Pacific Butene-1 Consumption by Country ...... 85 Figure 63 Asia Pacific Butene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 88 Figure 64 China Butene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 89 Figure 65 Global Hexene-1 Consumption by End-Use ...... 91 Figure 66 Global Hexene-1 Demand by Region, 2020-e ...... 91 Figure 67 Global Hexene-1 Consumption by Region ...... 92 Figure 68 Global Hexene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 93 Figure 69 Global Hexene-1 Inter-Regional Trade ...... 94 Figure 70 North America Hexene-1 Consumption by End-Use ...... 95 Figure 71 North America Hexene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 97 Figure 72 South America Hexene-1 Consumption by End-Use ...... 98 Figure 73 South America Hexene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 99 Figure 74 Western Europe Hexene-1 Consumption by End-Use ...... 100 Figure 75 Hexene-1 Capacity in Western Europe ...... 101 Figure 76 Western Europe Hexene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 102 Figure 77 Central Europe Hexene-1 Consumption by End-Use ...... 103 Figure 78 Central Europe Hexene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 104 Figure 79 Russia Hexene-1 Consumption by End-Use ...... 105 Figure 80 Other Eastern Europe Hexene-1 Consumption by End-Use...... 106 Figure 81 Eastern Europe Hexene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 110 Figure 82 Middle East Hexene-1 Consumption by End-Use ...... 111 Figure 83 Middle East Hexene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 113 Figure 84 Africa Hexene-1 Consumption by End-Use...... 114 Figure 85 Africa Hexene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 116 Figure 86 Asia Pacific Hexene-1 Consumption by End-Use ...... 118 Figure 87 Asia Pacific Hexene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 120 Figure 88 China Hexene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 121 Figure 89 End-Use Consumptio Drivers ...... 124 Figure 90 Monomer Consumptrion Drivers ...... 125 Figure 91 Trade Considerations ...... 126

Tables Table 1 North America Alpha Olefin Capacity, 2020 ...... 25 Table 2 South America Alpha Olefin Capacity, 2020 ...... 27 Table 3 Western Europe Alpha Olefin Capacity, 2020 ...... 30 Table 4 Russian Alpha Olefin Capacity, 2020 ...... 34 Table 5 Other Eastern Europe Alpha Olefin Capacity, 2020 ...... 36 Table 6 Middle East Alpha Olefin Capacity, 2020 ...... 39 Table 7 Africa Alpha Olefin Capacity, 2020 ...... 41 Table 8 Asia Pacific Alpha Olefin Capacity, 2020 ...... 45

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Table 9 Global Butene-1 Demand by End-Use ...... 49 Table 10 Global Butene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 52 Table 11 North America Butene-1 Demand by End-Use ...... 55 Table 12 Butene-1 Capacity in North America ...... 56 Table 13 North America Butene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 58 Table 14 South America Butene-1 Demand by End-Use ...... 60 Table 15 Butene-1 Capacity in South America ...... 61 Table 16 South America Butene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 62 Table 17 Western Europe Butene-1 Demand by End-Use ...... 64 Table 18 Butene-1 Capacity in Western Europe ...... 65 Table 19 Western Europe Butene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 66 Table 20 Central Europe Butene-1 Demand by End-Use ...... 67 Table 21 Central Europe Butene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 68 Table 22 Russia Butene-1 Demand by End-Use ...... 70 Table 23 Other Eastern Europe Butene-1 Demand by End-Use ...... 71 Table 24 Butene-1 Capacity in Russia ...... 72 Table 25 Butene-1 Capacity in Other Eastern Europe ...... 73 Table 26 Russia Butene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 74 Table 27 Other Eastern Europe Butene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade...... 75 Table 28 Eastern Europe Butene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 76 Table 29 Middle East Butene-1 Demand by End-Use ...... 78 Table 30 Butene-1 Capacity in Middle East ...... 79 Table 31 Middle East Butene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 80 Table 32 Africa Butene-1 Demand by End-Use ...... 81 Table 33 Butene-1 Capacity in Africa ...... 82 Table 34 Africa Butene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 83 Table 35 Asia Pacific Butene-1 Demand by End-Use ...... 85 Table 36 Butene-1 Capacity in Asia Pacific ...... 86 Table 37 Asia Pacific Butene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 88 Table 38 China Butene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 89 Table 39 Global Hexene-1 Demand by End-Use ...... 91 Table 40 Global Hexene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 93 Table 41 North America Hexene-1 Demand by End-Use ...... 95 Table 42 Hexene-1 Capacity in North America ...... 96 Table 43 North America Hexene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 97 Table 44 South America Hexene-1 Demand by End-Use ...... 98 Table 45 South America Hexene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 99 Table 46 Western Europe Hexene-1 Demand by End-Use ...... 100 Table 47 Western Europe Hexene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 102 Table 48 Central Europe Hexene-1 Demand by End-Use ...... 103 Table 49 Central Europe Hexene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 104 Table 50 Russia Hexene-1 Demand by End-Use ...... 105 Table 51 Other Eastern Europe Hexene-1 Demand by End-Use ...... 106 Table 52 Hexene-1 Capacity in Russia ...... 107

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Table 53 Russia Hexene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 108 Table 54 Other Eastern Europe Hexene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade...... 109 Table 55 Eastern Europe Hexene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 110 Table 56 Middle East Hexene-1 Demand by End-Use ...... 111 Table 57 Hexene-1 Capacity in Middle East ...... 112 Table 58 Middle East Hexene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 113 Table 59 Africa Hexene-1 Demand by End-Use ...... 114 Table 60 Hexene-1 Capacity in Africa ...... 115 Table 61 Africa Hexene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 116 Table 62 Asia Pacific Hexene-1 Demand by End-Use ...... 118 Table 63 Hexene-1 Capacity in Asia Pacific ...... 119 Table 64 Asia Pacific Hexene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 120 Table 65 China Hexene-1 Supply, Demand and Trade ...... 121

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