Polynya Formation in Hudson Bay During the Winter Period By
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Polynya Formation in Hudson Bay During the Winter Period by Geoffrey Gunn A Thesis submitted to the Faculty of Graduate Studies of The University of Manitoba in partial fulfilment of the requirements of the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE Department of Environment and Geography University of Manitoba Winnipeg Copyright ©2014 by Geoffrey Gunn ABSTRACT Previous understanding of the winter ice regime in Hudson Bay was limited. This investigation demonstrates the existence of a large coastal polynya in northwestern Hudson Bay. Measuring approximately 600 km long by 60 km wide, this polynya is typically opened and maintained by surface winds for periods of one to five days. Closing mechanisms result from decline in wind maintenance and apparent thermodynamic ice formation. Open water is present on the northwest coast at some size for up to 70% of the winter between ice formation and breakup. Observation of this open water during the period of the winter ice pack indicates that the ‘ice factory’, modelled previously, in northwest Hudson Bay exists. This furthers understanding of the freshwater budgets, stratification, and atmosphere-ocean interactions while presenting new questions about climate change and the future of the Hudson Bay physical system. i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Thanks to the support, knowledge, and enthusiasm of my supervisor Dr. David Barber and committee members Dr. Jens Ehn, Mr. Pierre Larouche, and Dr. Greg McCullough. The thesis herein would not have been possible without the expertise and passion of the members of the Centre for Earth Observation Science at the University of Manitoba: the passion for Arctic science and discovery is infectious. Financial support for this was provided by ArcticNET – a Network of Centres of Excellence; the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council (NSERC); the Northern Scientific Training Program; and Manitoba Hydro. Special thanks to my family from whom I gained respect for science and nature. Especially thank you to my new wife Mallory, who has supported me the whole time (and told me to relax!). ii DEDICATION This thesis is built upon a foundation laid by the late Dr. Klaus Hochheim. the insight and mentorship he provided is hopefully apparent in this document. Sumus nanos gigantum humeris insidentes iii CONTENTS Abstract ................................................................................................................... i Acknowledgements ................................................................................................ii Dedication .............................................................................................................. iii List of Tables ............................................................................................................... v List of Figures ............................................................................................................. vi 1 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Research Objectives ...................................................................................... 2 1.2 Thesis Structure ............................................................................................ 2 2 Literature Review ............................................................................................. 3 2.1 Sea Ice and Oceans ....................................................................................... 3 2.1.1 Formation ............................................................................................. 3 2.1.2 Motion .................................................................................................. 6 2.1.3 Decay .................................................................................................... 8 2.1.4 Fast Ice.................................................................................................. 9 2.1.5 Polynyas and Leads .............................................................................. 9 2.2 Remote Sensing of Sea Ice .......................................................................... 13 2.2.1 Passive Microwave Radiometry and Sea Ice ...................................... 14 2.2.2 Spatial Measurement of Sea Ice ........................................................ 16 2.2.3 Polynya Detection .............................................................................. 19 2.3 Hudson Bay Marine Complex ..................................................................... 22 2.3.1 Physical Oceanography ...................................................................... 22 2.3.2 Sea Ice Regime ................................................................................... 24 2.3.3 Atmospheric Influences ..................................................................... 27 2.3.4 Northwestern Hudson Bay Polynya ................................................... 28 3 Methods .......................................................................................................... 31 3.1 Study Area ................................................................................................... 31 3.2 Data Sources ............................................................................................... 33 3.2.1 Passive Microwave Orbital Data ........................................................ 33 3.2.2 Operational Ice Charts ....................................................................... 33 3.2.3 Optical Orbital Data ............................................................................ 34 3.2.4 Oceanographic Data ........................................................................... 35 3.2.5 Atmospheric Data .............................................................................. 36 3.3 Analysis ....................................................................................................... 36 3.3.1 Determination of Consolidated Period .............................................. 36 3.3.2 Spatial and Temporal Analyses of Sea Ice and Atmosphere .............. 37 4 Results and Discussion .................................................................................... 39 4.1 Results ......................................................................................................... 39 iv 4.1.1 Seasonal Study Periods ...................................................................... 39 4.1.2 Northwest Hudson Bay Polynya Morphology .................................... 40 4.1.3 Spatial and Temporal Variability of the Polynya ................................ 45 4.1.4 Atmospheric Forcing Mechanisms ..................................................... 50 4.1.5 March, 2010 Event Case Study........................................................... 50 4.1.6 Significant East Coast Opening Event................................................. 58 4.1.7 Roes Welcome Sound Polynya ........................................................... 59 4.2 Discussion.................................................................................................... 60 4.2.1 Hudson Bay Coastal Polynya System ................................................. 60 4.2.2 Atmospheric Forcing Mechanisms ..................................................... 64 4.2.3 Freshwater Marine Coupling and Stratification ................................. 67 4.2.4 Biological Impacts .............................................................................. 70 4.3 Suggested Further Research ....................................................................... 71 5 Conclusion ...................................................................................................... 74 6 Appendix ......................................................................................................... 76 6.1 Works Cited ................................................................................................. 76 6.2 Citations for Data Sources .......................................................................... 92 6.3 Projection Details ........................................................................................ 93 6.4 Adjusted Date of Year Key .......................................................................... 94 6.5 Eigenvalues for Principal Components Analysis ......................................... 94 LIST OF TABLES Table 2-1 - Use of Sea Ice Thresholds in Literature ................................................. 18 Table 3-1 - Geometry of Subregions. ...................................................................... 32 Table 4-1 - Northwest Polygon Consolidated Period .............................................. 40 Table 4-2 - Descriptive Statistics of Polynya Events ................................................ 45 Table 4-3 - Spearman's Rank Correlation between OWE and U-Wind ................... 49 v LIST OF FIGURES Figure 3-1 –(a) Northwest Hudson Bay Area of Interest; (b) Subregions (refer to Table 2-1) ................................................................................................................. 31 Figure 4-1 - Examples of Polynya Maxima ............................................................... 41 Figure 4-2 – Same date comparison of SIC (a) to SIE (b) – March 4, 2008 .............. 42 Figure 4-3 - Sea Ice Extent in Northwestern Hudson Bay (Region 5). ..................... 44 Figure 4-4 – Seasonal cumulative open water extent in Northwest study area ..... 46 Figure 4-5 - Mean Polynya SIE (a) and Count of separate