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Costs, Revenues, and Effectiveness of the Copenhagen Accord Emission Pledges for 2020

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Costs, Revenues, and Effectiveness of the Copenhagen Accord Emission Pledges for 2020 OECD Environment Working Papers No. 22 Costs, Revenues, Rob Dellink, and Effectiveness Gregory Briner, of the Copenhagen Accord Christa Clapp Emission Pledges for 2020 https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5km975plmzg6-en Unclassified ENV/WKP(2010)8 Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Économiques Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 04-Aug-2010 ___________________________________________________________________________________________ English - Or. English ENVIRONMENT DIRECTORATE Unclassified ENV/WKP(2010)8 ENVIRONMENT WORKING PAPER NO. 22 COSTS, REVENUES, AND EFFECTIVENESS OF THE COPENHAGEN ACCORD EMISSION PLEDGES FOR 2020 By Rob Dellink, Gregory Briner and Christa Clapp, OECD Environment Directorate JEL classifications: F53, H23, H87, Q54, Q58 Keywords: Climate change, Computable general equilibrium model, Copenhagen accord, Greenhouse gas mitigation All OECD Environment Working Papers are available at www.oecd.org/env/workingpapers English - Or. English JT03287220 Document complet disponible sur OLIS dans son format d'origine Complete document available on OLIS in its original format ENV/WKP(2010)8 OECD ENVIRONMENT WORKING PAPERS This series is designed to make available to a wider readership selected studies on environmental issues prepared for use within the OECD. Authorship is usually collective, but principal writers are named. The papers are generally available only in their original language English or French with a summary in the other if available. The opinions expressed in these papers are the sole responsibility of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the OECD or of the governments of its member countries. Comment on the series is welcome, and should be sent to either [email protected] or the Environment Directorate, 2, rue André Pascal, 75775 PARIS CEDEX 16, France. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- OECD Environment Working Papers are published on www.oecd.org/env/workingpapers --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Applications for permission to reproduce or translate all or part of this material should be made to: OECD Publishing, [email protected] or by fax 33 1 45 24 99 30. Copyright OECD 2010 2 ENV/WKP(2010)8 ABSTRACT Tackling the problem of global climate change requires a high level of international cooperation. Many countries have pledged targets or actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the Appendices to the Copenhagen Accord. This analysis examines the costs and effectiveness of these pledges, using the OECD’s ENV-Linkages computable general equilibrium model. Several scenarios are analysed to evaluate the impacts of the range of pledges, the use of offsets, and linking emission trading systems. The results show that while the emission targets currently pledged by a wide range of countries under the Accord are an important and welcome start to a global solution, the pledges are not ambitious enough to put us on a pathway to limit average global temperature increase to below 2°C. This paper also analyses the economic impacts of the pledges, and estimates the costs of action at around 0.3% of GDP for both Annex I and non- Annex I countries and 0.5-0.6% of global real income (not taking into consideration the economic benefits from avoided damages from climate change). Furthermore, the analysis reveals that the potential for increased fiscal revenue or proceeds are substantial and for the Annex I group of countries can exceed 1% of GDP (or 400 billion USD) if mitigation actions are achieved through market instruments such as carbon taxes or cap-and-trade emission schemes with auctioned emission allowances. JEL classifications: F53, H23, H87, Q54, Q58 Keywords: Climate change, Computable general equilibrium model, Copenhagen accord, Greenhouse gas mitigation 3 ENV/WKP(2010)8 RÉSUME Pour parer au changement climatique planétaire, une coopération internationale poussée s’impose. Beaucoup de pays se sont engagés à réaliser des objectifs ou à mettre en œuvre des actions de réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre dans les appendices à l’Accord de Copenhague. La présente analyse vise à examiner les coûts et l’efficacité de ces engagements au moyen du modèle d’équilibre général calculable ENV-Linkages de l’OCDE. Elle porte sur plusieurs scénarios, de manière à évaluer les incidences qu’entraînent les divers engagements pris, l’utilisation de formules de compensation, ainsi que les liens entre les systèmes d’échange de droits d’émission. Les résultats montrent que si les objectifs d’émission actuellement annoncés par un large éventail de pays dans le cadre de l’Accord sont un premier pas important et fort apprécié dans le sens d’une solution mondiale, les engagements ne sont pas suffisamment ambitieux pour nous placer sur une trajectoire permettant de maintenir l’élévation moyenne de la température du globe au-dessous de 2°C. Ce document concerne aussi les répercussions économiques des engagements, les coûts de l’action étant estimés à 0.3 % environ du PIB, que les pays soient visés ou non à l’Annexe I, et à 0.5-0.6 % du revenu réel mondial (compte non tenu des avantages économiques liés aux atteintes évitées du changement climatique). Par ailleurs, l’analyse fait ressortir des perspectives non négligeables d’augmentation des recettes budgétaires qui, pour les pays de l’Annexe I, pourraient représenter plus de 1 % du PIB (400 milliards USD) si les mesures d’atténuation passent par des instruments de type marché tels que les taxes carbone ou les systèmes de plafonnement et d’échange dans lesquels des quotas d’émission sont attribués par voie d’enchères. Classification JEL : F53, H23, H87, Q54, Q58 Mots clés : changement climatique, modèle d’équilibre général calculable, Accord de Copenhague, atténuation des émissions de gaz à effet de serre 4 ENV/WKP(2010)8 FOREWORD This report presents the OECD analysis on the costs and effectiveness of the global greenhouse gas emission reduction targets and actions for 2020. It builds directly upon the preliminary work on this topic, presented in the OECD book “The economics of climate change mitigation: policies and options for global action beyond 2012”. The present report uses an updated version of the modelling tool ENV-Linkages to assess the collective targets and actions as pledged in the Appendices of the Copenhagen Accord. This report has been authored by Rob Dellink, Gregory Briner and Christa Clapp of the OECD Environment Directorate. It was reviewed by Delegates of the Working Party on Global and Structural Policies and the Working Party on National Environmental Policies at their meeting in May 2010. The authors are also grateful to Jean-Marc Burniaux, Jan Corfee-Morlot, Helen Mountford and Cuauhtemoc Rebolledo-Gómez of the OECD for valuable input and feedback. This document does not necessarily represent the view of either the OECD or its member countries. It is published under the responsibility of the Secretary General. Further enquiries on this topic should be directed to Rob Dellink at the OECD Environment Directorate, tel. +33 1 4524 1953, e-mail [email protected]. Visit the OECD’s website on the economics of climate change mitigation at www.oecd.org/env/cc/econ for further information. 5 ENV/WKP(2010)8 6 ENV/WKP(2010)8 TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................................... 3 RÉSUME ........................................................................................................................................................ 4 FOREWORD .................................................................................................................................................. 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................ 9 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 11 2. Brief description of the simulation scenarios ................................................................................. 11 2.1 Overview of the targets and actions that have been submitted to the Copenhagen Accord...... 11 2.2 Formulating scenarios to simulate the targets and actions ........................................................ 12 3. Results of the simulations ............................................................................................................... 13 3.1 Environmental effectiveness of the collective targets and actions for 2020 ............................. 13 3.2 Economic impacts of the collective targets and actions for 2020 ............................................. 15 4. Sensitivity analysis ......................................................................................................................... 19 4.1 The role of direct linking of Annex I carbon markets ............................................................... 19 4.2 The role of the assumptions on offsets...................................................................................... 21 4.3 Decomposing the effect of the domestic pledges ...................................................................... 23 5. Discussion ...................................................................................................................................... 24 5.1 Comparison to other assessments ............................................................................................
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