People and the Planet (Full Report)
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People and the planet April 2012 People and the planet The Royal Society Science Policy Centre report 01/12 Issued: April 2012 DES2470 ISBN: 978-0-85403-955-5 © The Royal Society, 2012 Requests to reproduce all or part of this document should be submitted to: The Royal Society Science Policy 6 – 9 Carlton House Terrace London SW1Y 5AG T +44 20 7451 2500 E [email protected] W royalsociety.org Cover image: Earth’s city lights shows how human-made lights highlight particularly developed or populated areas of the Earth’s surface. The brightest areas of the Earth are the most urbanized, but not necessarily the most populated. (Compare western Europe with China and India.) Cities tend to grow along coastlines and transportation networks. Even without an underlying map, the outlines of many continents are still visible. The United States interstate highway system appears as a lattice connecting the brighter dots of city centers. In Russia, the Trans-Siberian railroad is a thin line stretching from Moscow through the center of Asia to Vladivostok. The Nile River, from the Aswan Dam to the Mediterranean Sea, is another bright thread through an otherwise dark region.Data courtesy Marc Imhoff of NASA GSFC and Christopher Elvidge of NOAA NGDC. Image by Craig Mayhew and Robert Simmon, NASA GSFC. Original version available at visibleearth.nasa.gov Contents President’s foreword ......................................4 Chapter 5 – Wellbeing of people and the planet ...............................83 Membership of Working Group ......................5 5.1 Pathways towards sustainable development ..............................83 Summary and recommendations........... .........7 5.2 Human wellbeing ..........................................84 5.3 Changing consumption patterns ..................86 Chapter 1 – Introduction............................... 11 5.4 Demography for wellbeing ...........................91 1.1 The evidence ................................................. 11 5.5 Planning for change ......................................95 1.2 The challenges .............................................. 11 5.6 Conclusions ...................................................99 1.3 The search for solutions ................................12 1.4 The future ......................................................13 Chapter 6 – Conclusions and 1.5 About this report ...........................................14 recommendations ................... 101 6.1 Human impact on the earth ........................ 101 Chapter 2 – A diverse world .........................15 6.2 Consumption, population and equality ....... 101 2.1 Introduction ...................................................15 6.3 Migration, urbanisation and ageing ............103 2.2 Demography – a basic introduction ..............15 6.4 Education ....................................................103 2.3 Recent population trends ..............................20 6.5 The role of science and technology ............103 2.4 Population challenges and opportunities......35 6.6 Economic governance ................................104 2.5 Conclusions ...................................................45 6.7 Road map ....................................................105 Chapter 3 – Consumption .............................47 References ..................................................107 3.1 Introduction ...................................................47 3.2 What is consumption and Acknowledgements .....................................125 why does it matter .........................................47 3.3 Material consumption patterns .....................49 Glossary ...................................................... 126 3.4 Drivers of consumption .................................57 3.5 Conclusions ...................................................62 Appendix 1 Details of evidence received ...............................128 Chapter 4 – A finite planet ...........................63 4.1 Introduction ...................................................63 Appendix 2 4.2 Natural capital and ecosystems ....................63 Country groupings ..............................................132 4.3 Trends in environmental change due to population and consumption ........................65 4.4 Modelling human environmental impact ......68 4.5 A finite planet? ..............................................69 4.6 Will markets and technology neutralise environmental constraints? ...........................72 4.7 Conclusions ...................................................82 People and the planet 3 President’s foreword Sir Paul Nurse FRS Rapid and widespread changes We hope this report, the Royal Society’s first in the world’s human population, substantive offering on this topic, will be a coupled with unprecedented springboard for further discussion and action by levels of consumption present national and international Governments, scientific profound challenges to human bodies, non-governmental organisations, the media health and wellbeing, and the and many others. natural environment. I would like to thank Sir John Sulston FRS, the The combination of these Working Group and the Society’s staff for making factors is likely to have far reaching and long-lasting sense of such a complex set of topics. I would also consequences for our finite planet and will impact on like to thank the many people who contributed future generations as well as our own. These impacts throughout the project, including Council’s Review raise serious concerns and challenge us to consider Panel, who have all helped to bring clarity to these the relationship between people and the planet. It is enduringly important issues. not surprising then, that debates about population have tended to inspire controversy. This report is offered, not as a definitive statement on these complex topics, but as an overview of the impacts of human population and consumption on Paul Nurse the planet. It raises questions about how best to seize President of the Royal Society the opportunities that changes in population could bring – and how to avoid the most harmful impacts. 4 People and the planet Membership of Working Group The members of the Working Group involved in producing this report were as listed below. The Working Group Members acted in an individual and not an organisational capacity and declared any potential conflicts of interest. The Working Group Members contributed to the project on the basis of his or her own expertise and good judgment. Chair Sir John Sulston FRS Chair of the Institute for Science, Ethics and Innovation, University of Manchester Members Sir Patrick Bateson FRS Emeritus Professor of Ethology, University of Cambridge Professor Nigel Biggar Professor of Moral and Pastoral Theology, University of Oxford Professor Cai Fang Director of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Professor Suzana Cavenaghi Council member and ex-President of the Latin America Population Association, Brazil Professor John Cleland CBE FBA Professor of Medical Demography, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Dr Joel Cohen Abby Rockefeller Mauzé Professor, Laboratory of Populations, Rockefeller University and Columbia University, USA Sir Partha Dasgupta FBA FRS Professor of Economics, University of Cambridge Professor Parfait M Eloundou-Enyegue Associate Professor Department of Development Sociology at Cornell University, and Associate Director of Cornell Population Program Professor Alastair Fitter FRS Pro-Vice-Chancellor for Research, University of York Professor Demissie Habte President of the Ethiopian Academy of Sciences Professor Sarah Harper Director of Oxford Institute of Population Ageing, University of Oxford Professor Tim Jackson Director of the Research Group on Lifestyles, Values and Environment, University of Surrey Professor Georgina Mace CBE FRS Professor of Conservation Science, Imperial College London Professor Susan Owens OBE FBA Professor of Environment and Policy, University of Cambridge Jonathon Porritt CBE Co-founder, Forum for the Future Professor Malcolm Potts Bixby Professor, University of California, Berkeley, USA Professor Jules Pretty OBE Pro-Vice-Chancellor and Professor of Environment and Society, University of Essex Professor Faujdar Ram Director International Institute for Population Sciences Professor Roger Short FRS Honorary Professorial Fellow in Reproductive Biology, University of Melbourne, Australia Sarah Spencer CBE Deputy Director, Centre on Migration, Policy and Society (COMPAS), University of Oxford Professor Zheng Xiaoying Director of Population Institute, Peking University and Vice Chairman of Chinese Population Dr Eliya Zulu Executive Director, African Institute for Development Policy and Past President, Union for African Population Studies People and the planet 5 Review Panel This report has been reviewed by an independent panel of experts before being approved by the Council of the Royal Society. The Review Panel members were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of the report but to act as independent referees of its technical content and presentation. Panel members acted in a personal and not an organisational capacity and were asked to declare any potential conflicts of interest. The Royal Society gratefully acknowledges the contribution of the reviewers. Dame Jean Thomas DBE FRS Biological Secretary (Review Panel Chair) Professor David Fowler FRS Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Edinburgh Professor Charles