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Vocus Communications Ltd. (VOC.AX) March 10, 2016 INITIATION Vocus Communications Ltd. (VOC.AX) Neutral Equity Research Well positioned for growth, stock fairly valued; initiate at Neutral Investment view Investment Profile We initiate on Vocus Communications (VOC) at Neutral with a 12-month Low High price target of A$8.50. The transformative merger with M2 Group (MTU) Growth Growth brings together infrastructure assets with a large customer base and Returns * Returns * Multiple Multiple distribution network, to create Australia’s 4th largest fixed line telco (3rd in Volatility Volatility NZ). We believe its improved competitive positioning and lower product Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th pricing vs. TLS/Optus (and lower risk of legacy revenue cannibalization), Vocus Communications Ltd. (VOC.AX) will enable it to increase its c.7% share in the A$18bn AU fixed line Australia CME Peer Group Average market. However, with VOC trading at 20X FY17E P/E (vs. domestic peers * Returns = Return on Capital For a complete description of the investment profile measures please refer to the 11-21X), we believe the stock offers limited upside on a 12-month view. disclosure section of this document. Core drivers of growth Key data Current Price (A$) 7.98 We forecast FY16E-FY19E revenue CAGR +36%, EBITDA +35%, EPS +21%. 12 month price target (A$) 8.50 Key drivers include: (1) incorporation of MTU earnings including cost Market cap (A$ mn) 4,244.5 synergies; (2) organic growth in both Corporate and Consumer segments 6/15 6/16E 6/17E 6/18E NPAT preNRIs (A$ mn) 18.1 105.1 216.3 258.3 with VOC exposed to positive industry themes – secular demand for data EPS adj (A¢) 17.2 31.4 40.7 48.6 is driving take-up of high bandwidth corporate products and the NBN is EPS growth (%) 7.0 82.4 29.6 19.4 PER (X) 33.3 25.4 19.6 16.4 driving a transition to a reseller market and new market opportunities in DPS (A¢) 8.3 15.6 17.0 24.0 Dividend yield (%) 1.4 2.0 2.1 3.0 Consumer: (3) revenue synergies including lower consumer churn and Frank/Imput (%) 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 greater product sales over VOC infrastructure; and (4) attractive P/FCFPS (X) 76.4 79.1 27.6 21.8 EV/EBITDA (X) 13.8 14.8 11.2 9.7 economics in VOC’s core corporate business with 3yr payback on capex P/BV (X) 3.1 1.5 1.4 1.4 Avg shares (fd) (mn) 105.5 335.2 531.9 531.9 and strong incremental margins. In the medium term, we believe VOC Debt/equity (%) 53.3 21.5 18.9 16.2 will explore M&A opportunities to increase scale and capabilities. Price performance chart Risks to the investment case 9.0 6,200 (+) Higher than expected market share wins & synergies, M&A. 8.5 6,000 (-) Competition, integration risk, lower than expected synergies. 8.0 5,800 7.5 5,600 Valuation 7.0 5,400 Our 12m target price of A$8.50 is based on an average of our DCF and 6.5 5,200 6.0 5,000 EV/EBIT methodologies. 5.5 4,800 5.0 4,600 Industry context Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 We estimate VOC’s addressable markets as: (1) A$18bn AU fixed line Vocus Communications Ltd. (L) S&P/ASX 200 (R) (A$7bn Consumer, A$11bn Corporate); and (2) NZ$3bn NZ fixed line. INVESTMENT LIST MEMBERSHIP Share price performance (%) 3 month 6 month 12 month Neutral Absolute 6.5 32.1 45.1 Rel. to S&P/ASX 200 4.2 30.7 64.1 Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 3/10/2016 close. Coverage View: Neutral Raymond Tong +61(3)9679-1359 [email protected] Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies Kane Hannan covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be +61(3)9679-1862 [email protected] Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could Anita Dinshaw affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider +61(3)9679-1217 [email protected] Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non- US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Global Investment Research March 10, 2016 Vocus Communications Ltd. (VOC.AX) Vocus Communications Ltd.: Summary Financials Profit model (A$ mn) 6/15 6/16E 6/17E 6/18E Balance sheet (A$ mn) 6/15 6/16E 6/17E 6/18E Total revenue 149.0 879.2 1,933.8 2,062.5 Cash & equivalents 15.2 99.9 99.9 99.9 Cost of goods sold (64.5) (471.0) (1,134.7) (1,192.7) Accounts receivable 22.7 133.8 294.4 314.0 SG&A (33.4) (187.0) (369.9) (381.6) Inventory 1.0 6.1 13.3 14.2 R&D 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other current assets 3.1 15.7 15.7 15.7 Other operating profit/(expense) 0.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 Total current assets 41.9 255.5 423.3 443.8 EBITDA 51.6 222.9 430.9 489.9 Net PP&E 204.6 526.7 583.8 646.0 Depreciation & amortization (18.1) (48.5) (82.2) (85.1) Net intangibles 125.4 3,308.9 3,251.2 3,206.9 EBIT 33.5 174.4 348.8 404.8 Total investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Interest income 0.8 1.4 2.5 2.5 Other long-term assets 11.4 95.0 100.0 100.0 Interest expense (6.1) (25.7) (42.3) (38.3) Total assets 383.3 4,186.1 4,358.4 4,396.7 Income/(loss) from uncons. subs. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Accounts payable 24.2 142.7 313.8 334.7 Pretax profits 28.2 150.2 309.0 369.0 Short-term debt 1.8 18.3 18.3 18.3 Income tax (10.1) (45.1) (92.7) (110.7) Other current liabilities 14.9 36.8 36.8 36.8 Minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total current liabilities 40.9 197.7 368.9 389.7 Long-term debt 118.0 706.1 642.6 575.3 Net income pre-preferred dividends 18.1 105.1 216.3 258.3 Other long-term liabilities 28.3 381.8 381.8 381.8 Preferred dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total long-term liabilities 146.2 1,087.9 1,024.4 957.1 Net income (pre-exceptionals) 18.1 105.1 216.3 258.3 Total liabilities 187.1 1,285.6 1,393.3 1,346.8 Post-tax exceptionals 1.7 (36.2) (64.7) (45.9) Net income 19.9 69.0 151.6 212.4 Preferred shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total common equity 196.2 2,908.6 2,973.3 3,058.0 EPS (basic, pre-except) (A¢) 17.2 31.4 40.7 48.6 Minority interest 0.0 (8.2) (8.2) (8.2) EPS (basic, post-except) (A¢) 18.8 20.6 28.5 39.9 EPS (diluted, post-except) (A¢) 18.8 20.6 28.5 39.9 Total liabilities & equity 383.3 4,186.1 4,358.4 4,396.7 DPS (A¢) 8.3 15.6 17.0 24.0 Dividend payout ratio (%) 44.1 75.8 59.7 60.1 BVPS (A¢) 186.0 546.8 559.0 574.9 Free cash flow yield (%) 1.3 1.3 3.6 4.6 Growth & margins (%) 6/15 6/16E 6/17E 6/18E Ratios 6/15 6/16E 6/17E 6/18E Sales growth 62.4 490.1 119.9 6.7 CROCI (%) 19.0 7.6 7.7 8.4 EBITDA growth 56.4 332.3 93.3 13.7 ROE (%) 11.9 4.4 5.2 7.0 EBIT growth 55.2 421.0 100.0 16.1 ROA (%) 6.7 3.0 3.5 4.9 Net income growth 53.6 247.5 119.8 40.1 ROACE (%) 9.7 6.4 6.9 8.0 EPS growth 18.6 9.4 38.5 40.1 Inventory days 2.9 2.7 3.1 4.2 Gross margin 56.7 46.4 41.3 42.2 Receivables days 39.7 32.5 40.4 53.8 EBITDA margin 34.6 25.4 22.3 23.8 Payable days 108.9 64.7 73.4 99.2 EBIT margin 22.5 19.8 18.0 19.6 Net debt/equity (%) 53.3 21.5 18.9 16.2 Interest cover - EBIT (X) 6.3 7.2 8.8 11.3 Cash flow statement (A$ mn) 6/15 6/16E 6/17E 6/18E Valuation 6/15 6/16E 6/17E 6/18E Net income pre-preferred dividends 18.1 105.1 216.3 258.3 D&A add-back 18.1 48.5 82.2 85.1 P/E (analyst) (X) 33.3 25.4 19.6 16.4 Minorities interests add-back 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 P/B (X) 3.1 1.5 1.4 1.4 Net (inc)/dec working capital 1.0 2.3 3.3 0.4 EV/EBITDA (X) 13.8 14.8 11.2 9.7 Other operating cash flow 5.4 (20.0) (5.0) 0.0 EV/GCI (X) 2.0 0.8 1.1 1.1 Cash flow from operations 42.6 135.9 296.8 343.8 Dividend yield (%) 1.4 2.0 2.1 3.0 Capital expenditures (34.7) (102.1) (142.9) (148.8) Acquisitions (53.9) (2,700.9) 0.0 0.0 Divestitures 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Others 3.0 84.7 0.0 0.0 Cash flow from investments (85.6) (2,718.3) (142.9) (148.8) Dividends paid (common & pref) (2.2) (83.0) (90.4) (127.7) Inc/(dec) in debt 10.4 49.2 (63.5) (67.3) Common stock issuance (repurchase) 0.9 2,700.9 0.0 0.0 Other financing cash flows 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cash flow from financing 13.6 2,667.1 (153.9) (195.0) Total cash flow (29.4) 84.7 0.0 0.0 Note: Last actual year may include reported and estimated data.
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