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SURVEY of CURRENT BUSINESS October 1937

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SURVEY of CURRENT BUSINESS October 1937 OCTOBER 1937 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE BUREAU OF FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC COMMERCE WASHINGTON VOLUME 17 NUMBER 10 REGIONAL SSLES OF AUTOMOBILES Automobile sales in recent years have shown a fairly close correlation with national and regional income. Most divergencies can be traced to the shift- ing of consumer purchases during the various stages of the business cycle. During the depression, there were marked varia- tions in sales as between different geographical areas, but by 1936 the predepression relationships had generally been reestablished. In the article on page 12 some of these relation- ships are discussed and possibilities for further inves- tigation in the field are suggested. Several charts are also presented showing comparisons of sales with various indicators of purchasing power, as well as a table showing the distribution of passenger-car sales by States and geographical areas. UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE DANIEL C. ROPER, Secretary BUREAU OF FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC COMMERCE ALEXANDER V. DYE, Director SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS Prepared in the DIVISION OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH LOWELL J. GHAWNER, In Charge M. JOSEPH MEEHAN, Editor WALTER F. GROWDER, Acting Editor Volume 17 OCTOBER 1937 Number 10 CONTENTS SUMMARIES AND CHARTS STATISTICAL DAT A—Continued Page Monthly business statistics: Page Business indicators 2 Business indexes 22 Business situation summarized 3 Commodity prices 23 Graphic comparison of principal data 4 Construction and real estate 24 Commodity prices 5 Domestic trade 25 Domestic trade 6 Employment 7 Employment conditions and wages 27 Finance 8 Finance 31 Foreign trade 9 Foreign trade 37 Real estate and construction 10 Transportation and communications 37 Transportation 11 Statistics on individual industries: Chemicals and allied products 39 Electric power and gas 41 SPECIAL ARTICLE Foodstuffs and tobacco 41 Fuels and byproducts 45 Regional sales of automobiles 12 Leather and products 46 Lumber and manufactures 47 STATISTICAL DATA Metals and manufactures: New or revised series: Iron and steel 48 Table 39. Raw sugar, meltings and stocks, 1920-37 17 Machinery and apparatus 49 Nonferrous metals and products 50 Table 40. Magazine advertising cost, 1932-36 18 Paper and printing 51 Table 41. Refinery production of gasoline, by types, 1923-37 19 Rubber and products 52 Table 42. Slaughtering and meat packing, 1919-37 2° Stone, clay, and glass products 53 Table 43. Rayon deliveries, 1923-37; rayon stocks, 1930-37 20 Textile products 53 Transportation equipment, 55 Table 44. Retail prices of anthracite and bituminous coal, 1929-37. 20 Canadian statistics 56 Weekly business statistics through September 25 21 General index Inside back cover Subscription price of the monthly and weekly issues of the SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS is 31.50 a year. Single-copy price: Monthly, 10 cents; weekly, 5 cents* Foreign subscriptions, $3. Price of the 1936 Supplement is 35 cents. Make remittances only to Superintendent of Documents, Washington, D. C. 17174—37 1 1 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS October 1937 Business Indicators 1923-25=100, except as noted INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION RURAL SALES OF GENERAL MERCHANDISE 150 150 125 125 100 100 V Ac/justec/ 75 75 Adjusted 50 50 25 25 0 i ii ii i I I I I I I I II I I 1 I I I I T 1 I I I I I I I II I I 1 I I I I 0 I I I 1 1 1 1 1111 11111 I 1111 11 111 11 11 11111 1111 I I FREIGHT CAR LOADINGS DEPARTMENT STORE SALES 125 125 100 75 Adjusted 50 25 0 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 MM, 1... II I 1 .1 ,1 .1 Ml II III I I FACTORY EMPLOYMENT & PAYROLLS * CASH INCOME FROM FARM MARKETINGS 25 25 0 II I 1 11 1 i i 11 i 1111 i i \ i i i i i 1 i i i i 11 11 i i i 11 i 11 i 0 iiiiiii i 11 i i 1 i 11 i i 11 i i I i 1 11 i i i 1 11 i i i 1 i i i i I CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS AWARDED WHOLESALE PRICES 125 100 TOTAL (Adjusted) AIL COMMOD/r/ES? 75 f/t/?M P/?o/?t/crs 50 25 ^ • £RfS/D£NmL (Adjusted) * 0 1 I I 11 11 1111 i I i 11 i i 111 i 11 1 11 i i i 111 i i i 111 i i i FEDERAL RESERVE MEMBER BANK LOANS BANK DEBITS OUTSIDE NEW YORK CITY 150 150 125 125 100 75 50 OT M I 1 I I 1 , , . • . I, ,, . , I, ,, , , I. , , , . I, . , , • 1 • • • i . 1 0111111 L 1 i 111 Jii 1 ni 11 i i 11 i i 11 1 11 11 i 11 i i 11 11 i i 1930 1935 1930 1935 1935 1936 1937 ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION # REVISED * REPORTING MEMBER BANKS ^1929-31 = 100 "*"l924 - 29 = 100 NOTE; Indexes are based jjn dollar figures, exceot industrial production, fcehght - car loadings and factory employment October 1937 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS Business Situation Summarized HE VOLUME of industrial production during ing activity during August, lifting that section of the- TSeptember was somewhat reduced from the August index from 114 to 118. The advance may be attributed level, according to the available weekly data. Output largely to the sharp rise in the adjusted index of auto- during the third quarter, however, was maintained at moblie production, as shutdowns for the change-over approximately the pace which prevailed during the first period have been delayed. A more-than-seasonal in- half of the year and was about 6 percent above pro- crease in textile production and some increase in meat- duction in the corresponding period last year. During packing activity also contributed to the advance. the first half of 1937 output was 18 percent above that Factory employment and pay rolls showed moderate of the first half of 1936. The strong cyclical upswing gains during August, but the gain in employment was last year and the relatively even movement this year less than seasonal, resulting in a drop in the adjusted were responsible for the narrowed margin of gain in the index of nearly 1 point to 102.3 (1923-25 = 100). Fac- third quarter. tory pay rolls increased about 3 percent during August Following the reopening of the plants closed by and were almost one-fourth larger than in August 1936. strikes in June, steel-mill operations experienced a Retail sales of general merchandise during August sharp rebound in the first part of the quarter, but by were slightly lower than in July after adjustment for late September the scheduled rate of activity had seasonal change, but the margin of gain over a year ago dropped to around 75 percent of ingot capacity. Output was wider than in the preceding month. Freight-car for the quarter averaged lower than in the preceding loadings by railroads declined moderately during Au- quarter. Textile activity was considerably lower in gust, although a small increase is customary. Loadings the third quarter than in the second. Automobile pro- during the first 3 weeks in September increased less than duction was maintained at a relatively high level seasonally. throughout most of the period. Stock prices moved sharply lower from mid-August Aggregate industrial production in August increased through September, establishing new lows for the more than seasonally, the adjusted index of the Board year. In the recession from the March highs, the in- of Governors of the Federal Reserve System advancing dustrial "averages" have canceled about 40 percent of from 114 to 117 (1923-25 = 100). This increase re- the advances from early 1935 and are currently only sulted from a more-than-seasonal gain in manufactur- slightly above their 1936 lows. MONTHLY BUSINESS INDEXES Factory em- Retail sales, Foreign Industrial production ployment Freight-car value, trade, value, Cash farm and pay rolls loadings adjusted 2 adjusted a income 3 Mer- g-s Unadjusted 1 Adjusted 2 chant Total disc, 1 11 I. c. U IS I! 11 Year and month IiS S3 II P it ji ! I Monthly 1929- Monthly Monthly average, 1923-25 = 100 31 = 100 Monthly average, 1923-25=100 average, average, 1924-29=100 1926=-100 1929: August 122 122 121 121 122 115 107.0 112.0 110 105 1 111 129.0 109 119 143.5 122 113.5 108. 5 96.3 1932: August 59 58 66 91 91 65 61.6 41.0 51 68 64 58.5 31 29 59.6 30 38.5 38.5 65.2 1933: August 90 89 95 73 72 91 79.4 57.7 64 69 74 75.2 50 62.7 24 49.5 51.0 69.5 1934: August 73 71 83 88 89 80 83.0 63.2 61 64 76 79.2 39 68.0 27 62.5 65.0 76.4 1935: August 87 87 86 108 110 83 86.1 71.0 63 64 77 92.8 54 78.8 38 67.0 64.5 80.5 1936: August 106 106 104 108 110 99 93.4 83.5 76 67 86 111.9 62 86.7 62 75.0 74.5 81.6 September 107 107 no 109 110 102 93.8 83.6 75 67 88 123.6 70 89.1 59 890 77.5 81.6 October 111 110 115 no 111 105 94.4 89.0 77 66 90 127 1 64 102. 1 57 104.0 76.0 81.5 November_ 115 115 115 114 115 112 96.2 90.7 82 67 94 122. 6 61 93.7 58 88.5 77.5 82.4 December 114 114 111 121 121 117 98.6 95.2 83 69 92 131.0 76 117.8 86.0 78.5 84.2 1937: January 112 113 105 114 115 109 98.8 90.7 80 67 93 106.7 74 103.3 75.5 75.0 85.9 February.
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