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SURVEY of CURRENT BUSINESS September 1937

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SURVEY of CURRENT BUSINESS September 1937 SEPTEMBER 1937 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE BUREAU OF FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC COMMERCE WASHINGTON VOLUME 17 NUMBER 9 A Review of Economic Changes during the elapsed period of 1937 is presented in the article on page 12. The improvement this year has been substantial, but the rate of increase has tended to slacken in recent months. NATIONAL INCOME has been much larger than in 1936 and this further gain in the dollar figures has meant an increase in ''rear' income. This expansion has reflected the sharp rise in labor income, the gain in income from agriculture and other business enterprises, and the rapid rise in dividend payments. CASH FARM INCOME from marketings and Government payments for the full year 1937 is estimated by the Department of Agriculture at $9,000,000,000, an increase of 14 percent over the total for 1936, and the largest income since 1929. Industrial output for the first 8 months was about 15 percent larger than in the corresponding period of 1936. The increase in freight-car loadings was almost as large, while that for retail trade was somewhat less. OTHER FEATURES of the general business situation are sum- marized, and a table provides data on the extent of the gains over 1932 and 1936. A special chart on page 4 affords a quick comparison of six principal economic series for the 1929-37 period. UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE DANIEL C. ROPER, Secretary BUREAU OF FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC COMMERCE ALEXANDER V. DYE, Director SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS Prepared in the DIVISION OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH ROY G. BLAKEY, Chief M. JOSEPH MEEHAN, Editor Volume 17 SEPTEMBER 1937 Number 9 CONTENTS SUMMARIES AND CHARTS STATISTICAL DATA—Continued Page Business indicators .. 2 Monthly business statistics: Page Business situation summarized 3 Business indexes 22 Selected indicators of economic change, first 7 months of years Commodity prices 23 1929-37 4 Construction and real estate 24 Commodity prices 5 Domestic trade 25 Domestic trade 6 Employment conditions and wages 27 Employment 7 Finance 31 Finance 8 Foreign trade 37 Foreign trade 9 Transportation and communications 37 Real estate and construction 10 Statistics on individual industries: Transportation 11 Chemicals and allied products 39 Electric power and gas 41 Foodstuffs and tobacco 41 Fuels and byproducts 45 SPECIAL ARTICLE Leather and products 46 Trend of business 12 Lumber and manufactures 47 Metals and manufactures: Iron and steel 48 STATISTICAL DATA Machinery and apparatus 49 New or revised series: Nonferrous metals and products 50 Paper and printing 51 Table 36. Sales of new paid-for ordinary life insurance in the United States, by geographic divisions, 1930-37 18, 19 Rubber and products 52 Stone, clay, and glass products 53 Table 37. Sales of new paid-for ordinary life insurance in Canada, 1930-37 19 Textile products 53 Transportation equipment 55 Table 38. Radio advertising, cost of facilities, 1932-36 20 Canadian statistics 56 Weekly business statistics through August 28 21 General index Inside back cover Subscription price of the monthly and weekly issues of the SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS is 31.50 a year. Single-copy price: Monthly, 10 cents; weekly, 5 cents. Foreign subscriptions, 33. Price of the 1936 Supplement is 35 cents. Make remittances only to Superintendent of Documents, Washington, D. C. 10570—37 1 1 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS September 1937 Business Indicators 1923-25=100, except as noted INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION RURAL SALES OF GENERAL MERCHANDISE 150 150 125 125 \ 100 100 *sf*\ 75 Ac/justed 75 Adjusted 50 50 25 25 0 i i i ii ii I II I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I 1 I I 1 ! I I I I 0 1 1 I 1 I 1 1 i 1MM I In, i, I 1 ,,, FREIGHT CAR LOADINGS DEPARTMENT STORE SALES 125 125 100 100 LCL (Adjusted) 75 75 Adjusted 50 50 TOTAL (Ac/justed) * 25 25 0 i i i i i i i II I I I I I I I I I I I I I I ! I 0 i i i i i I FACTORY EMPLOYMENT & PAYROLLS # CASH INCOME FROM FARM MARKETINGS 125 125 100 FMPLOYMENT (Adjusted) Adjusted * ^ _ A/ 7 5 V -PAmOLLS (Unadjusted) 50 V 25 25 0 i i i i 1 1 1 i i II i 11 i i i i 11 iii i I i i i ii I 11 i i i 111 i i 0 i i I i i i i I I I i I I I I I II I || 1 1 | i I | I I M I 1 M I I CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS AWARDED WHOLESALE PRICES 125 100 ALL COMMODITIES? TOTAL (Adjusted) 75 TA/9M PRODUCTS 50 25 * L/?fS/t?f/VTtAL (Adjusted) * i 11 i 11 i i i i 11 i i i i 1 i i i i i 1 11 i i i 1 i i i i i 0 1 I 1 I 1 1 1 MM 1 I ! 1 1 1 1 II 1 1 1 ! II1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ! ! ! 11 1 1 FEDERAL RESERVE MEMBER BANK LOANS BANK DEBITS OUTSIDE NEW YORK CITY 50 nT i i i i i i i ,., i, I I,,,,, 1 1 11,, i ,T 0 L I I I I I I I I I | I I 1 || l I I I I II M I I I II I I II I I I i i i II I I 1930 1935 1935 1936 1937 1930 1935 1935 1936 1937 ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION REVISED ^ REPORTING MEMBER BANKS 1929-31 = 100 1924-29=100, NOTE: Indexes are based on dollar figures, except industrial production freignt - car loadings, and factory employment D0 90}9^ September 1937 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS Business Situation Summarized NDUSTRIAL output during August has held to a amount, while production in the leather and shoe-man- I rather even pace, hut the weekly data indicate that ufacturing industry increased as usual for this period. the seasonally adjusted index for the month may be The index of mineral production, seasonally adjusted, below the July figure. Scheduled steel-mill activity dropped from 114 in June to 111 in July. has decreased slightly from the high summer level at- The slight declines in the number employed and in tained late in July, following the reopening of the plants pay rolls from June to July were the result of seasonal closed by strikes, but for the month of August produc- influences. Factory employment advanced contra- tion was higher than in July. Automobile assemblies seasonally, the adjusted index advancing about 2 points declined as producers completed their runs of the 1937 to 103.3 (1923-25 = 100). Factory pay rolls declined, models. Mill consumption of cotton continued to largely as a result of customary midsummer shut- decrease as backlogs of orders were reduced and new downs, but were one-fourth larger than in July 1936. buying was curtailed by the drop in raw-cotton prices. Cash income from the marketings of agricultural Bituminous-coal output did not show the expected products increased in July much more than usual, the seasonal increase. Electric-power production and seasonally adjusted index advancing 10 points to 94.5 crude-oil output established new high weekly records (1924-29 = 100). Prices of some leading farm products during August. have receded in recent weeks, but on the basis of current Aggregate industrial production in July declined price and }deld prospects, the Department of Agricul- seasonally, the adjusted index of the Board of Governors ture estimates that cash farm income (including Govern- of the Federal Reserve System remaining unchanged at ment payments) for the full year 1937 will be about one- 114 (1923-25 = 100). Output of manufactures re- seventh larger than the income of 1936. ceded less than usual, owing to the increase in steel- Retail trade during July was maintained at approxi- ingot production, which accompanied the reopening of mately the level of June, after adjustment for the nor- mills closed by industrial disputes. There was a large mal seasonal decline, but the margin of gain over a drop in wool consumption, a somewhat less severe re- year ago was smaller than in June. Freight traffic was duction in mill takings of cotton, and a marked curtail- higher in July than in June, after seasonal adjustment, ment of activity at meat-packing plants. Automobile but this gain was not maintained during the first 3 production was down by about the usual seasonal weeks of August. MONTHLY BUSINESS INDEXES Factory em- Freight-car Retail sales, Foreign Cash farm Industrial production ployment value, trade, value, 3 and pay rolls loadings adjusted 2 adjusted a income Mer- Unadjusted 1 Adjusted 2 chan- Total dise, 1. c. I. Year and month H n of If as i* M Monthly Monthly Monthly average, 1923-25=100 1929- Monthly average, 1923-25=100 average, average, 31=100 1924-29=100 1926=100 1929: July 120 120 118 124 125 116 106.9 107.1 108 106 109 126.0 121 119 144.0 124 100.0 111.5 96.5 1932: July 56 55 63 58 57 65 61.1 40.2 49 68 65 60.7 32 27 63.4 27 35.5 40.5 64.5 1933: July 96 97 90 100 102 91 76.1 51.7 66 70 71.3 43 48 70.4 21 58.5 78.5 68.9 1934: July 73 71 84 76 74 84 83.4 61.4 62 65 75.5 48 43 70.5 27 58.5 72.5 74.8 1935: July 83 83 85 86 87 85 85.0 66.5 59 63 97.0 52 59 83.9 35 56.0 63.5 79.4 1936: July 105 105 102 108 109 101 92.8 80.2 76 66 91 114.7 54 65 94.4 59 84.0 88.0 80.5 August 106 106 104 108 110 99 93.4 83.5 76 67 111.9 51 62 86.7 62 75.0 74.5 81.6 September 107 107 110 109 102 93.8 83.6 75 67 123.6 55 70 89.1 59 89.0 77.6 81.6 October.
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