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New Frontier Data THE GLO BAL CANNABIS RE P ORT 2019 INDUSTRY OUTLOOK © NEW FRONTIER DATA. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. TABLE OF CONTENTS ABOUT NEW FRONTIER DATA 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 METHODOLOGY 7 GLOBAL OVERVIEW 10 GLOBAL INDUSTRY OPPORTUNITY IN CONTEXT 20 KEY TRENDS SHAPING THE GLOBAL CANNABIS ECONOMY 21 REGIONAL ANALYSIS 39 North America 39 Caribbean 43 Latin America 45 Europe 47 Oceania 52 Asia 53 Africa 56 KEY TAKEAWAYS 59 © NEW FRONTIER DATA, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED | NEWFRONTIERDATA.COM | 1 ABOUT NEW FRONTIER DATA New Frontier Data provides objective, Mission rigorous, and comprehensive analysis and report- ing about the nascent and underserved cannabis New Frontier Data’s mission is to elevate the industry worldwide. New Frontier Data’s ana- discussion around the legal cannabis industry lytics and reports have been cited in over 82 globally by providing unbiased, vetted infor- countries around the world to inform industry mation for educating stakeholders to make leaders, investors, policymakers, and others. As informed decisions. the premier and only Big Data shop in the sector, New Frontier Data looks beyond plant cultiva- Core Values tion and distribution to raise the industry bar and improve visibility into what will inevitably soon be a • Honesty mature and more complex global market. Founded • Respect in 2014, New Frontier Data is headquartered in Understanding Washington, D.C., and has additional offices in • Denver, Colorado. Vision New Frontier Data does not take a position on the merits of cannabis legalization. Rather, Be the Global Big Data & Intelligence Authority its mission and mandate are to inform canna- for the Cannabis Industry. bis-related policy and business decisions through rigorous, issue-neutral and comprehensive Commitment to Our Clients analysis of the legal cannabis industry. For more information about New Frontier Data, please visit: The trusted one-stop shop for actionable NewFrontierData.com. cannabis intelligence, New Frontier Data pro- vides individuals and organizations operating, researching, or investing in the cannabis industry with unparalleled access to actionable industry intelligence and insight, helping them leverage the power of big data to succeed in a fast-paced and dynamic market. © NEW FRONTIER DATA, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED | NEWFRONTIERDATA.COM | 2 ABOUT NEW FRONTIER DATA Report Contributors PUBLISHER Giadha Aguirre de Carcer, Founder & Chief Executive Officer, New Frontier Data EDITOR HEADQUARTERS John Kagia, Chief Knowledge Officer, 1400 I Street NW / Suite 350 / Washington, DC 20005 New Frontier Data SALES & MARKETING 535 16th Street / Suite 620 / Denver, CO 80202 LEAD AUTHOR [email protected] 844-420-D8TA Kacey Morrissey, Director of Industry Analytics, New Frontier Data CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Molly McCann, Senior Industry Analyst, New Frontier Data Yona Torres, Associate Director of International Markets, New Frontier Data NNEWFRONTIERDATA.COME WFR O NTI E R DATA .C O M Beau R. Whitney, Vice President and Senior Economist, New Frontier Data IINTERCANNALLIANCE.COMNTE R C A N NALLI A N C E .C O M QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS Kacey Morrissey, Director of Industry Analytics, New Frontier Data NCIA’S INDUSTRY AWARDS NCIA’SEXCELLENCE INDUSTRY IN AWARDS TECHNOLOGYEXCELLENCE AWARD IN FOR BUSINESS TECHNOLOGY AWARD TOP TECH STRATEGY & INNOVATION FOR BUSINESS TOPCOMPANY TECH STRATEGY & INNOVATION COMPANY2 YEARS IN A ROW 2 YEARS IN A ROW COPY EDITOR J.J. McCoy, Senior Managing Editor, New Frontier Data © NEW FRONTIER DATA, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED | NEWFRONTIERDATA.COM | 3 EXECUTIVE Based on New Frontier Data’s latest analysis, SUMMARY more than 260 million adults worldwide consume cannabis at least once per year, collectively spend- ing $344 billion USD annually. As much of the world has not yet legalized any form, much of the demand is in illicit or unregulated markets. More than 50 countries worldwide have legalized some form of cannabis for medical The large number of cannabis consumers globally, use, and six — Canada, Uruguay, South Africa, coupled with the growing evidence of the plant’s Guam, Georgia, and the Northern Mariana therapeutic value and industrial potential, is trans- Islands — have legalized cannabis for personal or forming attitudes toward cannabis and rapidly recreational use. Yet, the legal, regulated markets driving reform. Many of the countries to legalize command just a fraction of the global demand cannabis in some form have done so in the past for cannabis. 12 months. With highly divergent approaches to regulating cannabis sales and use, these countries TOTAL ESTIMATED VALUE OF CANNABIS DEMAND BY REGION (ESTIMATE IN $USD BILLIONS) $250 Global Demand Value $200 $344.4 Billion $150 Error bars shown depict range of uncertainty $132.9 due to pricing variation within region. $100 $85.6 $USD BILLIONS $68.5 $50 $37.3 $9.8 $8.7 $1.7 $0 Asia North America Europe Africa Latin America Oceania Carribean Source: New Frontier Data © NEW FRONTIER DATA, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED | NEWFRONTIERDATA.COM | 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY are creating widely variable markets with differing geographical size of the region – Asia is home levels of opportunity, impact, and operational and to nearly 60% the world’s population - and the investment risk. higher average prices paid in the region relative to other markets. Analyses of legal cannabis markets globally have revealed that slight cultural, social, and regulatory Average cannabis prices vary widely across variations can drastically impact the size of the regions, influenced by factors including GPD per cannabis consumer market. Influential factors in capita and the severity with which prohibition laws determining the total addressable market include are enforced. In regions with the harshest punish- the prevalence of cannabis use, average prices ments for cannabis use (such as in Asia), the price paid, and population size and growth. for cannabis carries a heavy risk premium, and consequently some of the highest illicit market Asia (with 39% of global sales) is the world’s largest cannabis prices in the world. In Latin America and market, followed by North America (25%) and Africa, conversely, average prices are half of those Europe (20%). Despite relatively low rates of can- in Asia, reflecting the higher usage rates and lower nabis use, Asia’s dominance is due to both the economic development in those regions. CANNABIS & HEMP: GLOBAL PHENOMENA Legal Medical and/or Adult Use Cannabis Source: New Frontier Data © NEW FRONTIER DATA, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED | NEWFRONTIERDATA.COM | 5 AVERAGE PRICE PER GRAM BY REGION ($USD) $20 $20 $18 15% Global Average Price per Gram $15 $15 $9.20 $14 $14 $13 $13 $12 $12 15% $10 $10 $9 $9 15% $9 $8 $8 $5 $5 $5 2% $3 $3 $2 $2 $0 Asia Oceania Europe Caribbean North America Latin America Africa Min Mid Max Min, Mid, and Max values are the average minimum, midrange, and maximum values across the respective regions. Source: Regional rates modeled by New Frontier Data using country-level pricing data described in the Methodology section of this report. As government, business, health, and legal experts • Investment capital’s role in accelerating collectively lay the foundations for newly legal industry growth and scale; cannabis markets across the globe, it is important • Potential for technology and innovation to understand the size of the market opportunities in increasing cannabis business operational and the influencers of their growth. This report efficiency, and transforming the provides a foundation of the size and potential consumer experience; opportunity worldwide that legal cannabis could Digital media’s capacity for shaping • present, based on analysis of demand across 217 cannabis awareness and building connectivity between consumers; countries and 7 distinct geographical regions. Additionally, this report explores some of the key Future cannibalization of alcohol demand • global cannabis trends, such as: by cannabis; and • Hemp’s potential to foment economic • Durability of legalization support as a growth and sustainable development in long-term cultural trend; developing markets. • Effectiveness of medical cannabis driving acceptance and adoption; © NEW FRONTIER DATA, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED | NEWFRONTIERDATA.COM | 6 METHODOLOGY There were 217 countries The majority of this report quantifies figures by considered in this first-of-its region. The table on the left displays which indi- kind analysis of total global vidual countries were included as part of each cannabis demand. regional rollup in this analysis. Demand Estimates and Market Sizing REGIONAL TERRITORY BREAKDOWN Proprietary consumption and usage rate mod- Total Countries eling, along with demographic census data and Region Included in Population Regional Analysis price sampling, were used by New Frontier Data to develop the demand and consumption esti- Asia 44 4,341,950,820 mates for cannabis in the 217 countries across the seven selected regions of the world. The demand figures herein represent an estimate of Africa 54 1,254,823,150 total current demand for cannabis flower without making distinctions on the legality of the markets Europe 54 862,686,804 in which consumption occurs. Latin America 20 601,424,293 As most legal markets are new and expected to experience regulatory volatility in the initial North America 3 362,483,432 years of program deployment, the market anal- ysis herein does not make any assumptions for Caribbean 23 42,778,814 timelines for the implementation of new medical and adult-use markets. Instead, the analysis uti- Oceania 19 40,901,664 lizes a
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