Transnational Threats Update

Volume 2 • Number 13 • December 2004

“Defending our Nation against its enemies is the first and fundamental commitment of the Federal Government. Today, that task has changed dramatically. Enemies in the past needed great armies and great industrial capabilities to endanger America. Now, shadowy networks of individuals can bring great chaos and suffering to our shores for less than it costs to purchase a single tank. Terrorists are organized to penetrate open societies and to turn the power of modern technologies against us.”

President George W. Bush, 2002 National Security Strategy

CONTENTS including those of the Takfiri movement, among the European Muslim youth; and the difficulty of Terrorism...... ….1 monitoring and penetrating the movement. Drug Trafficking……...………………...2 Terror Financing...... 3 The core principle of the movement, “taquyya,” War on Terror...... 4 advocates deception by blending into non-Muslim Transnational Threat Trends………...5 cultures by adopting Western lifestyle and habits. This does not prevent the Takfir followers from recruiting among immigrant Muslim communities. Terrorism The combination of these factors makes it especially hard to tackle the threat posed to European countries Rising Threat of the Takfiri Movement to that already lack a clear strategy to fight terrorism. Europe and Beyond The Takfiri influence impacts many countries. It is The killing of the Dutch filmmaker Theo van Gogh estimated that up to 50,000 of the 1 million Muslims last November brought the problem of Islamist in the Netherlands sympathize with extremist extremism to the fore of Europe’s attention. The Islamist ideas. Last year, French authorities arrested attacker was an alleged member of the Dutch more than a dozen suspected Takfiri affiliates. Islamic cell known as the Hofstad Network, which Moroccan and Jordanian officials have also been is believed to be affiliated with Al Qaeda and is part after Takfiri followers. Some of the September 11 of the radical Islamist movement al-Takfir wa al- instigators and attackers, for instance, Mohammed Hijra. The Takfir movement, born in the 1960s, Atta, Ramzi Yosef, and Khalid Shaikh Muhammed, appeals to militant Islamist groups like Al Qaeda by were believed to be Takfiri supporters. Ayman Al- inspiring them with its extremist ideology directed Zawahiri is also a Takfiri member. against societies seen as corrupt and meriting reprisal. Although there is no clear indication of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi’s membership in the Takfiri sect, his Although one has to be careful with linking the beliefs are generally in line with the Takfiri tenets. Takfiri canons directly with terrorist networks, it is The Takfiri threat to Europe appears to be possible to see the influence of the movement on particularly acute because of the alienation and present-day Islamist terrorism to some degree. The increasing frustration of its swelling Muslim threat of the movement to Western European community and the lackluster attempt of the countries is alarming for three reasons: the growth European authorities to address Islamist extremism of the Muslim immigrant population in Europe and in their respective countries. The killing of van Gogh their alienation from mainstream European prompted the Dutch authorities to adopt a law societies; the popularity of extremist ideas, banning foreign terrorist groups, but it also triggered Transnational Threats Initiative • Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street, NW • Washington, DC 20006 • Tel: (202) 775-3282 • Fax: (202) 785-1688 • http://www.csis.org/tnt

2 societal intolerance toward Muslims, which may Islamic Fundamentalist Cells Preaching Wahhabi worsen the delicate situation. It appears that Islam in Macedonian Capital European countries have yet to draw up a common strategy to address the issue of Islamist extremism. Though there has been no official police reaction, (Combined Dispatches) Claude Monique, international terrorism adviser and European institutions’ consultant, has confirmed to Animal Rights Extremists Seen as Serious the Macedonian newspaper Vest the existence of Al Threat to UK Economy Qaeda-inspired/related cells in Macedonia. The Macedonian capital, Skopje, is said to have a number A report by the London-based Aegis Defense of fundamentalist cells that preach the extreme and Services reported twin threats to the economy. It often violent form of Saudi-inspired Wahhabi Islam. stated that animal rights “terrorists” in the United Kingdom could do as much damage to the economy Sources have corroborated that the intention of these as a single large-scale terrorist attack. cells is to “infiltrate impoverished and poorly educated environments, which are told that the The report also stated that animal rights extremism state’s intention is to undermine their religion and was expected to become a growing economic threat prevent them from having children. Cells that are over the course of 2005. “Single-issue terrorism and located in the city glorify the mujahideen fight animal rights extremist terrorist activity in Europe before the believers, disseminating written materials will grow with more ambitious strategy…and there to those who are literate, asking them to worship are fascinating parallels between the economic Islam through blood…,” according to the Vest agenda of al-Qaeda and animal rights extremist article. networks,” the report said. The presence of these fundamentalist cells has Currently at stake is an annual investment of up to provoked a strong sense of fear among the local ₤16 billion in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology population. The population has witnessed these research and development industries, according to organizations’ violence directed against members of Domonic Armstrong, director of research and the local Muslim community when entering intelligence at Aegis. In addition, three large mosques, trying to impose their foreign and extreme companies with a history of heavy investment in doctrine on their long-practiced traditional form of Britain have revealed fears regarding intimidation. Islam. “As the UK government and industry fail to act effectively against ARE (animal rights extremists), Brussels has warned of the dangers of these cells, so the activists will maintain their momentum in citing Claude Monique’s assertion that Skopje Mufti establishing effective offshoots in a number of Zenun Berisha maintains close ties with Al Qaeda European countries, especially Italy, the and shares the common strategic goal of establishing Netherlands, Sweden, and Russia,” the Aegis report terror camps and cells. (Combined Dispatches) states. As the ARE groups become more successful, “their morale will rise and they will be tempted to Drug Trafficking target major multinational corporations. Share prices will be significantly eroded in targeted Influx of Foreign Drugs Threatens Russian companies, and in the secondary and tertiary firms National Security associated with them.”

Examples of actions undertaken by animal rights The Russian Federal Service for Drug Control extremists in 2004 include hundreds of Animal announced that Moscow authorities had broken up Liberation Front activists trained in the Kent 38 organized criminal gangs involved in drug countryside area to kill and break the law. ARE trafficking in the last six months. Regional experts groups made more than 100 attacks on the homes of have estimated that roughly 10 tons of heroin alone Huntingdon Life Sciences laboratory workers. are sold in the Moscow area every year, though some (Combined Dispatches) estimates are significantly higher. Despite specific Transnational Threats Initiative • Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street, NW • Washington, DC 20006 • Tel: (202) 775-3282 • Fax: (202) 785-1688 • http://www.csis.org/tnt 3 yet meager attempts by Russian authorities to crack laundering adds to frequent bank failures in Latin down on drug trafficking, systematic corruption and America, which had been largely due to external loose border controls have done little to disrupt the shocks. flow of drugs into the region. Among the ten countries with the highest rates of The head of the Russian Service for Drug Control, money laundering, five were in Latin America and Viktor Cherkesov, said that Russia is particularly one in the Caribbean (Argentina, Colombia, Haiti, concerned about Central Asia. “We tightened Paraguay, Nicaragua, and Bolivia). Ecuador is not on control over the Armenian-Georgian, Armenian- the list, but its financial institutions also suffer Iranian and Belarusian sectors of the border. The greatly from money laundering. The negative effects latter is a major conduit for synthetic drugs from of laundering range from a weakened private sector Europe,” he said. and a loss of tax income to the corrosion of the “integrity of financial markets as well as countries’ Cherkesov expressed dismay regarding how the reputations.” (Combined Dispatches) counter-drug trafficking operations have not been successful in stemming the flow of heroin and Terror Groups Clone Cash Machine Cards opium from Afghanistan. However, law enforcement forces from member states of the France’s top antiterrorism judge, Jean-Louis Collective Security Treaty—Russia, Belarus, Bruguiere, said radical Islamic cells in Europe were Armenia, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan— using intricate technology to “clone” card details of recently conducted a joint counternarcotics ATM machine users. Al Qaeda, he said, was creating operation dubbed “Channel-2004.” The operation fake cards and using them to withdraw hundreds of was meant to highlight the fact that individual states thousands of pounds and euros per month from are powerless in the fight against narcotics stolen account numbers. He said that authorities first trafficking and that states in the region must work in uncovered this cash machine scheme two years ago tandem. when investigators discovered an Islamic terror cell operating in France. In September, Russian federal forces broke up two large criminal gangs involved in the trafficking of “The Islamic European networks finance themselves narcotics. Officers discovered several kilograms of primarily through microfinancing systems—criminal heroin and an entire arsenal of hi-tech weapons. activity that is very profitable,” Judge Bruguiere “The result of the operation serves as further proof said. Ten suspected Islamic militants were arrested that drug money is used to finance terrorists,” when they were found to be withdrawing more than Cherkesov said. (Combined Dispatches) ₤50,000 per month from cash machines in France and other European countries. Terror Financing The Association for Payment Clearing Services Money Laundering in Latin America (APACS) has reported that cases of cash machine fraud have spiked by 85 percent to ₤61 million in the Latin America is emerging as one of the most active United Kingdom over the past year alone. In regions for money laundering, which is carried out Scotland, fraud has risen by 134 percent to roughly through bank and nonbank channels, although the ₤1.9 million. Though the APACS has identified rate of laundering has not yet reached the levels of several techniques used for stealing card Asia or Africa. According to the Inter-American information, the main reason for the dramatic Development Bank (IDB), money laundering is increase of instances is the proliferation of thriving—it already makes up “between 2.5 percent “skimming” devices, which are attached to the card and 6.3 percent of annual regional GDP”—and it is entry slot of the machine and record the magnetic eroding the economies of Latin America and the strip details without the card owner’s knowledge. Caribbean, a problem further compounded by (Combined Dispatches) structural weaknesses in the region. Money

Transnational Threats Initiative • Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street, NW • Washington, DC 20006 • Tel: (202) 775-3282 • Fax: (202) 785-1688 • http://www.csis.org/tnt 4

Middle Eastern Nations Take Important Step in remote regions of the country. After suffering Combating Financial Crime casualties in the tribal regions, Pakistan declared victory in the war on terror and announced that bin The Middle East and North Africa Financial Action Laden was not in Pakistan. However, many in the Task Force (MENAFATF) was established on U.S. intelligence community believe the opposite. December 1, 2004, in Bahrain with a membership of 14 countries to fight money laundering and Though the CIA has established several bases in the terrorist funding in the Middle East. MENAFATF’s mountainous northwest Pakistani-Afghan border creation entails the adoption of 40 recommendations region, agents are strictly supervised by Pakistani of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and officials who monitor their activities and limit their Development’s Financial Action Task Force on movements and ability to operate. Money Laundering (FATF) to guarantee the The area suspected of being bin Laden’s refuge, in or application of international standards to the around the Hindu Kush mountain range, is extremely financial systems of the member countries, isolated and rugged. It is inhabited primarily by implementation of FATF’s special ethnic Pashtuns who see themselves as independent recommendations on terrorist funding, carrying out from Pakistani sovereignty and are mostly illiterate of applicable UN treaties and agreements, and farmers and smugglers. They are sympathetic to the improved cooperation among member states. Taliban, they view U.S. soldiers with distrust and as

aggressors and occupiers of Iraq and Afghanistan, Although money laundering is reported to be not as and they perceive bin Laden as a hero. extensive in the Middle East and North Africa region as it is in other parts of the world, it remains To further complicate the U.S. position, Pakistan a problem. There are lingering issues of terrorist prohibits Western reporters from entering the area financing through charity organizations. Even without a Pakistani military escort, and Western though the precise number of money laundering soldiers are strictly prohibited from the area cases was not revealed, it is said that not more than regardless of circumstance. This policy enables $150 million was involved in such cases. militants to attack U.S. and coalition outposts in Afghanistan and then quickly escape across the The new anti-money laundering body will be based border into Pakistani territory. U.S. soldiers have in Bahrain, a country that was among the first in the reported instances of being fired upon from within region to introduce strict regulations on upholding Pakistan by militants while Pakistani border guards high standards in the financial and banking sector. allegedly watched. (Combined Dispatches) Bahrain’s minister of finance, Abdullah Hassan

Saif, said: “Being a Muslim society we cannot Use of Biometrics Expanded at U.S. Entry Points ignore the benevolence and charity aspects of our belief but strict laws are there to check any illegal As part of the post-September 11 strategy to screen activities.… We are serious about fighting the twin the entrance and departure of foreigners more evils of money laundering and terrorist financing.” effectively, the Department of Homeland Security (Combined Dispatches) (DHS) is increasingly using biometric technology, spending some $340 million this year. Asa War on Terror Hutchinson, Homeland Security undersecretary, said that the new system, called US-VISIT, is Pakistan: Ally or Fair-weather Friend? accelerating the travel processing at ports of entry. In a matter of a few minutes, the new technology The hunt for Osama bin Laden has been stalled allows the digitally scanned photos of foreign indefinitely by remote topography; an Al Qaeda visitors to be matched with the criminal databases of network that remains well funded and disciplined, federal agencies. The use of this system since early despite the international crackdown on terror last year resulted in the detention of more than 372 financing; and the reluctance of some Pakistani people on immigration or criminal violations. officials to genuinely combat Islamists living in the Fingerprinting, air-based surveillance of deserted areas, and motion-detecting sensors are also part of Transnational Threats Initiative • Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street, NW • Washington, DC 20006 • Tel: (202) 775-3282 • Fax: (202) 785-1688 • http://www.csis.org/tnt 5 the expanding biometrics system. The new TNT Digest of Major Trends in technology has been launched in 50 of the busiest land ports in 10 states and is planned to cover every Transnational Organized Crime land border crossing in the United States over the and Terrorism in 2003–2004 next few months.

Mr. Hutchinson said that much remains to be done, This digest highlights some of the major trends for example, allowing a thorough check of covered in the Transnational Threats Update that information with federal databases and frequent show a recurring pattern over the past two years. sharing of a biometric database of terrorists between Trafficking in drugs, people, and arms; attempts to the FBI and DHS. Citizens of Canada and Mexico smuggle weapons of mass destruction; medicine are exempt as of September 2004 with the use of counterfeiting; and terrorist financing through border-crossing cards. DHS is trying different pirated goods and cash-based couriers increasingly technologies at five entry ports to keep track of threaten international security. In addition, Al foreigners exiting the country and such tests will Qaeda’s ideas, connections, cells, and sympathizers expand to other ports this year. (Combined around the world and the increased vulnerability of Dispatches) maritime and cyber security to both organized criminal and terrorist groups remain dominant Bush Administration Tightens Regulations on international problems. Money Transfers It appears that Al Qaeda’s reach to various parts of the globe through its ideas and connections remains The Bush administration has issued instructions an overarching threat to international security. It is giving U.S. money transfer businesses six months to clear from the Transnational Threats Update over come into compliance with more stringent the past two years that Al Qaeda has been an regulations. These businesses must take the enormous influence and inspiration for many entities necessary steps to make sure their agents operating and individuals who may not necessarily be its overseas are not vulnerable to terrorist financiers members, but who adhere to its ideas in one form or and money launderers. another. Al Qaeda members and indirect affiliates made themselves known in Southeast Asia, Africa, “To the extent a money services business uses the Middle East, and the former Soviet Union relationships with foreign agents and counterparts to (namely, Chechnya). Suspected cells and facilitate the movement of funds into or out of the sympathizers are believed to in European countries United States, the money services business’ anti- with large Muslim populations, as well as in Central money laundering program must reasonably assess Asia, Latin America, and North America. the risks of money laundering and the financing of Although Al Qaeda ably recruits or is capable of terrorism,” according to the Treasury Department’s recruiting in just about any Middle Eastern and Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, known as North African country, it was reported to have most FinCen. The agency made clear that money transfer actively recruited in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and businesses, such as Western Union, are required by Algeria. Al Qaeda also takes advantage of law to initiate procedures to detect abuses by underdeveloped and unstable states and regions with foreign agents. In countries with weak anti-financial weak border controls and lax law enforcement such crime regulations, the U.S. money transfer as Nigeria, Sudan, Kenya, the Horn of Africa, the businesses’ foreign counterparts are extremely Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and vulnerable. (Combined Dispatches) Pakistan, to name a few. Al Qaeda is suspected of

having close links with supporters in areas such as

Bosnia, Macedonia, Chechnya, El Salvador, and the Pacific Islands. With Al Qaeda’s inspiration and support, regional terrorist groups—such as Jemaah Islamiya, Abu Sayyaf, and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front in Southeast Asia; Harakat ul- Transnational Threats Initiative • Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street, NW • Washington, DC 20006 • Tel: (202) 775-3282 • Fax: (202) 785-1688 • http://www.csis.org/tnt 6

Mujahideen in Pakistan; Ansar al-Islam in Iraq; Al- traffic weapons and provide funding for their Gama'a al-Islamiyya (Islamic Group) in Egypt; and operations, as well as target ships, including cruise the Armed Islamic Group (GIA) in Algeria—have liners and cargoes. Hence, maritime piracy and became more menacing. terrorism appear to be increasingly converging. Although the International Maritime Organization Al Qaeda and other terrorist entities have found details some improvements in controlling various ways to fund themselves, including cash- international shipping from the threat of terrorism, based couriers, pirated goods (e.g., counterfeit there has been less cooperation in regions such as discs), credit card and ATM scams, charities, the Africa, the former Soviet Union, and Eastern narcotics trade, and even shipping weapons and Europe. Indeed, a private British defense company, explosives by flying the flag of a sovereign country, Aegis Defense System, suspects that Al Qaeda’s such as Tonga in the Pacific Islands. next major attack may be seaborne within the next The fact that Al Qaeda’s supporters and members 12 months. Al Qaeda promoted a maritime attack emerge from prisons in countries such as Spain and specialist, Saud bin Hamud at-Otaibi, who is France is an alarming sign of the successful believed to be responsible for the 2000 attack on the penetration of radical Islamist ideas in Europe. USS Cole in the Gulf of Aden, to lead its activities in Saudi Arabia. (Saltanat Berdikeeva) With the U.S.-led heavy crackdown on terrorist training camps in Afghanistan and the increased collaboration with many countries to fight terrorism, Al Qaeda’s recruitment and communication has switched to less visible forms This update is produced by the Transnational such as the Internet. This is evidenced by the Threats Initiative at the Center for Strategic and emergence of thousands of radical Islamist Web International Studies (CSIS) and provides sites and the use of popular media, such as a rap monthly news on terrorism, drug trafficking, video filled with an extremist propaganda message organized crime, money laundering, and other that quickly spread throughout the Internet. transnational threats. The TNT Update draws on several U.S. and international media sources, Cyberspace appears to have become a new including Associated Press, Agence France battlefield between criminals and law enforcement Presse, Reuters, Xinhua News Agency, World agencies. The number of wire and credit card thefts Tribune, Afghan News, and others. through “phishing” scams grew 800-fold in just six CSIS does not take specific public policy months, between December 2003 and April 2004. positions; accordingly, all views, positions, and Not only teenagers are involved in such scams but conclusions in this publication should be also organized crime groups and terrorist understood to be solely those of the author(s). supporters. Other cyber-related crimes such as © 2004 by the Center for Strategic and identity theft, virus sending, hacking, Internet child International Studies. pornography, and selling of counterfeit software are a testament to the “fastest-growing category of crimes in many countries,” according to the Council of Europe’s Convention on Cyber crime. Maritime security has also become increasingly vulnerable to organized crime and terrorism. Armed assaults on ships in Southeast Asia, through which 30 percent of world trade passes, grew two-fold in the past year compared to other commercial waterways. Poverty and lawlessness along important chokepoints such as the Straits of Malacca attract international terrorists, who look at maritime trading systems as a good opportunity to

Transnational Threats Initiative • Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street, NW • Washington, DC 20006 • Tel: (202) 775-3282 • Fax: (202) 785-1688 • http://www.csis.org/tnt