Regression Analysis
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Startips …A Resource for Survey Researchers
Subscribe Archives StarTips …a resource for survey researchers Share this article: How to Interpret Standard Deviation and Standard Error in Survey Research Standard Deviation and Standard Error are perhaps the two least understood statistics commonly shown in data tables. The following article is intended to explain their meaning and provide additional insight on how they are used in data analysis. Both statistics are typically shown with the mean of a variable, and in a sense, they both speak about the mean. They are often referred to as the "standard deviation of the mean" and the "standard error of the mean." However, they are not interchangeable and represent very different concepts. Standard Deviation Standard Deviation (often abbreviated as "Std Dev" or "SD") provides an indication of how far the individual responses to a question vary or "deviate" from the mean. SD tells the researcher how spread out the responses are -- are they concentrated around the mean, or scattered far & wide? Did all of your respondents rate your product in the middle of your scale, or did some love it and some hate it? Let's say you've asked respondents to rate your product on a series of attributes on a 5-point scale. The mean for a group of ten respondents (labeled 'A' through 'J' below) for "good value for the money" was 3.2 with a SD of 0.4 and the mean for "product reliability" was 3.4 with a SD of 2.1. At first glance (looking at the means only) it would seem that reliability was rated higher than value. -
Appendix F.1 SAWG SPC Appendices
Appendix F.1 - SAWG SPC Appendices 8-8-06 Page 1 of 36 Appendix 1: Control Charts for Variables Data – classical Shewhart control chart: When plate counts provide estimates of large levels of organisms, the estimated levels (cfu/ml or cfu/g) can be considered as variables data and the classical control chart procedures can be used. Here it is assumed that the probability of a non-detect is virtually zero. For these types of microbiological data, a log base 10 transformation is used to remove the correlation between means and variances that have been observed often for these types of data and to make the distribution of the output variable used for tracking the process more symmetric than the measured count data1. There are several control charts that may be used to control variables type data. Some of these charts are: the Xi and MR, (Individual and moving range) X and R, (Average and Range), CUSUM, (Cumulative Sum) and X and s, (Average and Standard Deviation). This example includes the Xi and MR charts. The Xi chart just involves plotting the individual results over time. The MR chart involves a slightly more complicated calculation involving taking the difference between the present sample result, Xi and the previous sample result. Xi-1. Thus, the points that are plotted are: MRi = Xi – Xi-1, for values of i = 2, …, n. These charts were chosen to be shown here because they are easy to construct and are common charts used to monitor processes for which control with respect to levels of microbiological organisms is desired. -
Ordinary Least Squares 1 Ordinary Least Squares
Ordinary least squares 1 Ordinary least squares In statistics, ordinary least squares (OLS) or linear least squares is a method for estimating the unknown parameters in a linear regression model. This method minimizes the sum of squared vertical distances between the observed responses in the dataset and the responses predicted by the linear approximation. The resulting estimator can be expressed by a simple formula, especially in the case of a single regressor on the right-hand side. The OLS estimator is consistent when the regressors are exogenous and there is no Okun's law in macroeconomics states that in an economy the GDP growth should multicollinearity, and optimal in the class of depend linearly on the changes in the unemployment rate. Here the ordinary least squares method is used to construct the regression line describing this law. linear unbiased estimators when the errors are homoscedastic and serially uncorrelated. Under these conditions, the method of OLS provides minimum-variance mean-unbiased estimation when the errors have finite variances. Under the additional assumption that the errors be normally distributed, OLS is the maximum likelihood estimator. OLS is used in economics (econometrics) and electrical engineering (control theory and signal processing), among many areas of application. Linear model Suppose the data consists of n observations { y , x } . Each observation includes a scalar response y and a i i i vector of predictors (or regressors) x . In a linear regression model the response variable is a linear function of the i regressors: where β is a p×1 vector of unknown parameters; ε 's are unobserved scalar random variables (errors) which account i for the discrepancy between the actually observed responses y and the "predicted outcomes" x′ β; and ′ denotes i i matrix transpose, so that x′ β is the dot product between the vectors x and β. -
Ordinary Least Squares: the Univariate Case
Introduction The OLS method The linear causal model A simulation & applications Conclusion and exercises Ordinary Least Squares: the univariate case Clément de Chaisemartin Majeure Economie September 2011 Clément de Chaisemartin Ordinary Least Squares Introduction The OLS method The linear causal model A simulation & applications Conclusion and exercises 1 Introduction 2 The OLS method Objective and principles of OLS Deriving the OLS estimates Do OLS keep their promises ? 3 The linear causal model Assumptions Identification and estimation Limits 4 A simulation & applications OLS do not always yield good estimates... But things can be improved... Empirical applications 5 Conclusion and exercises Clément de Chaisemartin Ordinary Least Squares Introduction The OLS method The linear causal model A simulation & applications Conclusion and exercises Objectives Objective 1 : to make the best possible guess on a variable Y based on X . Find a function of X which yields good predictions for Y . Given cigarette prices, what will be cigarettes sales in September 2010 in France ? Objective 2 : to determine the causal mechanism by which X influences Y . Cetebus paribus type of analysis. Everything else being equal, how a change in X affects Y ? By how much one more year of education increases an individual’s wage ? By how much the hiring of 1 000 more policemen would decrease the crime rate in Paris ? The tool we use = a data set, in which we have the wages and number of years of education of N individuals. Clément de Chaisemartin Ordinary Least Squares Introduction The OLS method The linear causal model A simulation & applications Conclusion and exercises Objective and principles of OLS What we have and what we want For each individual in our data set we observe his wage and his number of years of education. -
Problems with OLS Autocorrelation
Problems with OLS Considering : Yi = α + βXi + ui we assume Eui = 0 2 = σ2 = σ2 E ui or var ui Euiuj = 0orcovui,uj = 0 We have seen that we have to make very specific assumptions about ui in order to get OLS estimates with the desirable properties. If these assumptions don’t hold than the OLS estimators are not necessarily BLU. We can respond to such problems by changing specification and/or changing the method of estimation. First we consider the problems that might occur and what they imply. In all of these we are basically looking at the residuals to see if they are random. ● 1. The errors are serially dependent ⇒ autocorrelation/serial correlation. 2. The error variances are not constant ⇒ heteroscedasticity 3. In multivariate analysis two or more of the independent variables are closely correlated ⇒ multicollinearity 4. The function is non-linear 5. There are problems of outliers or extreme values -but what are outliers? 6. There are problems of missing variables ⇒can lead to missing variable bias Of course these problems do not have to come separately, nor are they likely to ● Note that in terms of significance things may look OK and even the R2the regression may not look that bad. ● Really want to be able to identify a misleading regression that you may take seriously when you should not. ● The tests in Microfit cover many of the above concerns, but you should always plot the residuals and look at them. Autocorrelation This implies that taking the time series regression Yt = α + βXt + ut but in this case there is some relation between the error terms across observations. -
Chapter 2: Ordinary Least Squares Regression
Chapter 2: Ordinary Least Squares In this chapter: 1. Running a simple regression for weight/height example (UE 2.1.4) 2. Contents of the EViews equation window 3. Creating a workfile for the demand for beef example (UE, Table 2.2, p. 45) 4. Importing data from a spreadsheet file named Beef 2.xls 5. Using EViews to estimate a multiple regression model of beef demand (UE 2.2.3) 6. Exercises Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression is the core of econometric analysis. While it is important to calculate estimated regression coefficients without the aid of a regression program one time in order to better understand how OLS works (see UE, Table 2.1, p.41), easy access to regression programs makes it unnecessary for everyday analysis.1 In this chapter, we will estimate simple and multivariate regression models in order to pinpoint where the regression statistics discussed throughout the text are found in the EViews program output. Begin by opening the EViews program and opening the workfile named htwt1.wf1 (this is the file of student height and weight that was created and saved in Chapter 1). Running a simple regression for weight/height example (UE 2.1.4): Regression estimation in EViews is performed using the equation object. To create an equation object in EViews, follow these steps: Step 1. Open the EViews workfile named htwt1.wf1 by selecting File/Open/Workfile on the main menu bar and click on the file name. Step 2. Select Objects/New Object/Equation from the workfile menu.2 Step 3. -
The Bootstrap and Jackknife
The Bootstrap and Jackknife Summer 2017 Summer Institutes 249 Bootstrap & Jackknife Motivation In scientific research • Interest often focuses upon the estimation of some unknown parameter, θ. The parameter θ can represent for example, mean weight of a certain strain of mice, heritability index, a genetic component of variation, a mutation rate, etc. • Two key questions need to be addressed: 1. How do we estimate θ ? 2. Given an estimator for θ , how do we estimate its precision/accuracy? • We assume Question 1 can be reasonably well specified by the researcher • Question 2, for our purposes, will be addressed via the estimation of the estimator’s standard error Summer 2017 Summer Institutes 250 What is a standard error? Suppose we want to estimate a parameter theta (eg. the mean/median/squared-log-mode) of a distribution • Our sample is random, so… • Any function of our sample is random, so... • Our estimate, theta-hat, is random! So... • If we collected a new sample, we’d get a new estimate. Same for another sample, and another... So • Our estimate has a distribution! It’s called a sampling distribution! The standard deviation of that distribution is the standard error Summer 2017 Summer Institutes 251 Bootstrap Motivation Challenges • Answering Question 2, even for relatively simple estimators (e.g., ratios and other non-linear functions of estimators) can be quite challenging • Solutions to most estimators are mathematically intractable or too complicated to develop (with or without advanced training in statistical inference) • However • Great strides in computing, particularly in the last 25 years, have made computational intensive calculations feasible. -
Lecture 5 Significance Tests Criticisms of the NHST Publication Bias Research Planning
Lecture 5 Significance tests Criticisms of the NHST Publication bias Research planning Theophanis Tsandilas !1 Calculating p The p value is the probability of obtaining a statistic as extreme or more extreme than the one observed if the null hypothesis was true. When data are sampled from a known distribution, an exact p can be calculated. If the distribution is unknown, it may be possible to estimate p. 2 Normal distributions If the sampling distribution of the statistic is normal, we will use the standard normal distribution z to derive the p value 3 Example An experiment studies the IQ scores of people lacking enough sleep. H0: μ = 100 and H1: μ < 100 (one-sided) or H0: μ = 100 and H1: μ = 100 (two-sided) 6 4 Example Results from a sample of 15 participants are as follows: 90, 91, 93, 100, 101, 88, 98, 100, 87, 83, 97, 105, 99, 91, 81 The mean IQ score of the above sample is M = 93.6. Is this value statistically significantly different than 100? 5 Creating the test statistic We assume that the population standard deviation is known and equal to SD = 15. Then, the standard error of the mean is: σ 15 σµˆ = = =3.88 pn p15 6 Creating the test statistic We assume that the population standard deviation is known and equal to SD = 15. Then, the standard error of the mean is: σ 15 σµˆ = = =3.88 pn p15 The test statistic tests the standardized difference between the observed mean µ ˆ = 93 . 6 and µ 0 = 100 µˆ µ 93.6 100 z = − 0 = − = 1.65 σµˆ 3.88 − The p value is the probability of getting a z statistic as or more extreme than this value (given that H0 is true) 7 Calculating the p value µˆ µ 93.6 100 z = − 0 = − = 1.65 σµˆ 3.88 − The p value is the probability of getting a z statistic as or more extreme than this value (given that H0 is true) 8 Calculating the p value To calculate the area in the distribution, we will work with the cumulative density probability function (cdf). -
Probability Distributions and Error Bars
Statistics and Data Analysis in MATLAB Kendrick Kay, [email protected] Lecture 1: Probability distributions and error bars 1. Exploring a simple dataset: one variable, one condition - Let's start with the simplest possible dataset. Suppose we measure a single quantity for a single condition. For example, suppose we measure the heights of male adults. What can we do with the data? - The histogram provides a useful summary of a set of data—it shows the distribution of the data. A histogram is constructed by binning values and counting the number of observations in each bin. - The mean and standard deviation are simple summaries of a set of data. They are parametric statistics, as they make implicit assumptions about the form of the data. The mean is designed to quantify the central tendency of a set of data, while the standard deviation is designed to quantify the spread of a set of data. n ∑ xi mean(x) = x = i=1 n n 2 ∑(xi − x) std(x) = i=1 n − 1 In these equations, xi is the ith data point and n is the total number of data points. - The median and interquartile range (IQR) also summarize data. They are nonparametric statistics, as they make minimal assumptions about the form of the data. The Xth percentile is the value below which X% of the data points lie. The median is the 50th percentile. The IQR is the difference between the 75th and 25th percentiles. - Mean and standard deviation are appropriate when the data are roughly Gaussian. When the data are not Gaussian (e.g. -
Examples of Standard Error Adjustment In
Statistical Analysis of NCES Datasets Employing a Complex Sample Design > Examples > Slide 11 of 13 Examples of Standard Error Adjustment Obtaining a Statistic Using Both SRS and Complex Survey Methods in SAS This resource document will provide you with an example of the analysis of a variable in a complex sample survey dataset using SAS. A subset of the public-use version of the Early Child Longitudinal Studies ECLS-K rounds one and two data from 1998 accompanies this example, as well as an SAS syntax file. The stratified probability design of the ECLS-K requires that researchers use statistical software programs that can incorporate multiple weights provided with the data in order to obtain accurate descriptive or inferential statistics. Research question This dataset training exercise will answer the research question “Is there a difference in mathematics achievement gain from fall to spring of kindergarten between boys and girls?” Step 1- Get the data ready for use in SAS There are two ways for you to obtain the data for this exercise. You may access a training subset of the ECLS-K Public Use File prepared specifically for this exercise by clicking here, or you may use the ECLS-K Public Use File (PUF) data that is available at http://nces.ed.gov/ecls/dataproducts.asp. If you use the training dataset, all of the variables needed for the analysis presented herein will be included in the file. If you choose to access the PUF, extract the following variables from the online data file (also referred to by NCES as an ECB or “electronic code book”): CHILDID CHILD IDENTIFICATION NUMBER C1R4MSCL C1 RC4 MATH IRT SCALE SCORE (fall) C2R4MSCL C2 RC4 MATH IRT SCALE SCORE (spring) GENDER GENDER BYCW0 BASE YEAR CHILD WEIGHT FULL SAMPLE BYCW1 through C1CW90 BASE YEAR CHILD WEIGHT REPLICATES 1 through 90 BYCWSTR BASE YEAR CHILD STRATA VARIABLE BYCWPSU BASE YEAR CHILD PRIMARY SAMPLING UNIT Export the data from this ECB to SAS format. -
Time-Series Regression and Generalized Least Squares in R*
Time-Series Regression and Generalized Least Squares in R* An Appendix to An R Companion to Applied Regression, third edition John Fox & Sanford Weisberg last revision: 2018-09-26 Abstract Generalized least-squares (GLS) regression extends ordinary least-squares (OLS) estimation of the normal linear model by providing for possibly unequal error variances and for correlations between different errors. A common application of GLS estimation is to time-series regression, in which it is generally implausible to assume that errors are independent. This appendix to Fox and Weisberg (2019) briefly reviews GLS estimation and demonstrates its application to time-series data using the gls() function in the nlme package, which is part of the standard R distribution. 1 Generalized Least Squares In the standard linear model (for example, in Chapter 4 of the R Companion), E(yjX) = Xβ or, equivalently y = Xβ + " where y is the n×1 response vector; X is an n×k +1 model matrix, typically with an initial column of 1s for the regression constant; β is a k + 1 ×1 vector of regression coefficients to estimate; and " is 2 an n×1 vector of errors. Assuming that " ∼ Nn(0; σ In), or at least that the errors are uncorrelated and equally variable, leads to the familiar ordinary-least-squares (OLS) estimator of β, 0 −1 0 bOLS = (X X) X y with covariance matrix 2 0 −1 Var(bOLS) = σ (X X) More generally, we can assume that " ∼ Nn(0; Σ), where the error covariance matrix Σ is sym- metric and positive-definite. Different diagonal entries in Σ error variances that are not necessarily all equal, while nonzero off-diagonal entries correspond to correlated errors. -
Simple Linear Regression
The simple linear model Represents the dependent variable, yi, as a linear function of one Regression Analysis: Basic Concepts independent variable, xi, subject to a random “disturbance” or “error”, ui. yi β0 β1xi ui = + + Allin Cottrell The error term ui is assumed to have a mean value of zero, a constant variance, and to be uncorrelated with its own past values (i.e., it is “white noise”). The task of estimation is to determine regression coefficients βˆ0 and βˆ1, estimates of the unknown parameters β0 and β1 respectively. The estimated equation will have the form yˆi βˆ0 βˆ1x = + 1 OLS Picturing the residuals The basic technique for determining the coefficients βˆ0 and βˆ1 is Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). Values for the coefficients are chosen to minimize the sum of the ˆ ˆ squared estimated errors or residual sum of squares (SSR). The β0 β1x + estimated error associated with each pair of data-values (xi, yi) is yi uˆ defined as i uˆi yi yˆi yi βˆ0 βˆ1xi yˆi = − = − − We use a different symbol for this estimated error (uˆi) as opposed to the “true” disturbance or error term, (ui). These two coincide only if βˆ0 and βˆ1 happen to be exact estimates of the regression parameters α and β. The estimated errors are also known as residuals . The SSR may be written as xi 2 2 2 SSR uˆ (yi yˆi) (yi βˆ0 βˆ1xi) = i = − = − − Σ Σ Σ The residual, uˆi, is the vertical distance between the actual value of the dependent variable, yi, and the fitted value, yˆi βˆ0 βˆ1xi.