October 16, 2020 Volume 4, No

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2020 Elections: Democrats Poised for a Sweep By Nathan L. Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin

OCTOBER 16, 2020 VOLUME 4, NO. 20 The unthinkable has happened. A resilient presidential race has shifted, but not in a way that was expected. In the aftermath of President Donald Trump’s first debate performance and subsequent hospitalization for coronavirus, Joe Biden’s 2020 Senate Ratings national standing2020 has improvedSenate by a couple Ratings of points. Toss-Up It hasn’t quite filtered downToss-Up to the state and House level yet, but there are mostly encouraging signs for Democrats up and down the ballot. For Daines (R-Mont.) Ernst (R-Iowa) Collins (R-Maine) Ernst (R-Iowa) most of the cycle, conventional wisdom said the race would tighten in Tilt Democratic Tilt Republican theDaines president’s (R-Mont.) favor in the final weeks.Tillis (R-N.C.) Collins (R-Maine) Graham (R-S.C.) TiltIn theDemocratic presidential race, Biden continuesTilt Republican to have the advantage in the Electoral College. Iowa and Ohio are now rated as a Toss-up. One of the McSally (R-Ariz.) Perdue (R-Ga.) Gardner (R-Colo.) Perdue (R-Ga.) biggest questions is whether Texas will join them in the final weeks. McSally (R-Ariz.) Tillis (R-N.C.) KS Open (Roberts, R)# That’s not the only good news for Biden as he strengthens his grip Lean Democratic Lean Republican onLean other Democraticbattlegrounds. Wisconsin andLean Nebraska’s Republican 2nd District move to Lean Democratic and New Hampshire moves to Likely Democratic. Gardner (R-Colo.)# Cornyn (R-Texas) Peters (D-Mich.) KS Open (Roberts, R) Meanwhile, Trump continues to loseCornyn support (R-Texas) in typically Republican Peters (D-Mich.) Loeffl er (R-Ga.) states. He is holding mid-single digit leadsLoeffl in er Kansas (R-Ga.) and Missouri, where Jones (D-Ala.) he won by 21 and 19 points. Those move to Lean Republican, joining Alaska, Jones (D-Ala.) Likely Democratic Likely Republican which is a single-digit race despite Trump’s 14-point victory in 2016. LikelyWith all Democratic of the rating changes, BidenLikely has a Republican 319 to 163 edge with 56 Sullivan (R-Alaska) electoral votes in states rated as a toss-up.Graham For (R-S.C.) some context, Illinois Sen. Solid Democratic Solid Republican Barack Obama defeated Arizona Sen.Sullivan John McCain (R-Alaska) 365-173 in 2008. NM Open (Udall, D) TN Open (Alexander, R) In the Senate, Democrats are likely to win control. We’re adjusting our mostSolid likely Democratic range to a Democratic netSolid gain of Republican 4 to 6 seats, but Democrats Booker (D-N.J.) WY Open (Enzi, R) areNM more Open likely (Udall, to exceed D) the top endTN of theOpen range (Alexander, than Republicans R) are Coons (D-Del.) Cassidy (R-La.) toBooker maintain (D-N.J.) control. Based on the narrowWY Open advantage (Enzi, Republicans R) enjoy in Durbin (D-Ill.) Capito (R-W.Va.) a Coonshandful (D-Del.) of races, another drop in GOPCassidy support (R-La.) could push Democratic Markey (D-Mass.) Cotton (R-Ark.) gainsDurbin closer (D-Ill.) to 10 or 11 seats. Capito (R-W.Va.) In the House, Democrats will retain and expand their majority. The Merkley (D-Ore.) Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.) Markey (D-Mass.) Cotton (R-Ark.) battlefield continues to shift into GOP territory as initially vulnerable Reed (D-R.I.) Inhofe (R-Okla.) Merkley (D-Ore.) Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.) Democrats drop off the list of competitive races and once-solid Shaheen (D-N.H.) McConnell (R-Ky.) Republican-heldReed (D-R.I.) seats are increasinglyInhofe vulnerable. (R-Okla.) We’re changing our Smith (D-Minn.) Risch (R-Idaho) projectionShaheen to(D-N.H.) a Democratic net gain ofMcConnell between 10 (R-Ky.) and 20 seats. Of course Warner (D-Va.) Rounds (R-S.D.) outcomesSmith (D-Minn.) below or above that are possible.Risch (R-Idaho) WarnerThe 2016 (D-Va.) presidential result casts aRounds shadow (R-S.D.) over any political GOP DEM Sasse (R-Neb.) projection. But what’sGOP often missedDEM is Sassethat data-driven (R-Neb.) projections in 116th Congress 53 47 the116th House Congress and Senate were53 not47 far off in 2016. And in 2018, political GOP DEM Not up this cycle 30 35 handicappers accurately identified the split result in the House (where 115th Congress 51 49 Not up this cycle 30 35 Currently Solid 11 10 Democrats gained seats) and the Senate (where Republicans gained seats). Not up this cycle 42 23 Currently Solid 11 10 Competitive 12 2 It’s possible that there is an abject failure of public opinion polling Currently Solid 4 18 thatCompetitive underestimates GOP12 voters2 across the board or a disproportionately Takeovers in Italics, # moved benefi ting Democrats, * moved benefi ting Republicans Competitive 5 8 large number of undecided voters break for Trump and Republican candidates. That’s just not the most likely outcome.

InsideElections.com Senate Report Shorts

Alabama. Doug Jones (D), elected 2017 special (50%). A recent New York Times story shed some light on GOP nominee Tommy Tuberville’s finances. It portrays the former Auburn head football coach as a victim 2020 Presidential Ratings 2020 Presidential Ratings who lost millions of dollars in multiple ponzi schemes and questions (Electoral Votes) (Electoral Votes) his “judgement and financial acumen” rather than a perpetrator. While Toss-Up (56) Toss-Up (66) Democrats are on the march into traditionally GOP territory nationwide, this race has been stubbornly static. Democrats admit Jones is still an Georgia (16) Maine 2nd (1) Ohio (18)# Arizona (11)# Florida (29) Nebraska 2nd (1) North Carolina (15) underdog and Republicans are not worried about not taking over this Iowa (6)# North Carolina (15) Wisconsin (10) seat. Lean Republican. Tilt Democratic (40) Tilt Republican (38) Tilt Democratic (36) Tilt Republican (1) Morning Consult, Sept. 11-20 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Tuberville Arizona (11) Florida (29) Texas (38) Michigan (16) Pennsylvania (20) Maine 2nd (1) Texas (38)# over Jones 52%-38%. Lean Democratic (47) Lean Republican (22) Lean Democratic (14) Lean Republican (22) Alaska. Dan Sullivan (R), elected 2014 (48%). Al Gross went from Michigan (16) Pennsylvania (20) Alaska (3) Missouri (10)# Minnesota (10)* New Hampshire (4) Georgia (16)# Iowa (6) being a little-known independent orthopedic surgeon to being a record- Nebraska 2nd (1)# Wisconsin (10)# Kansas (6)# Montana (3) Likely Democratic (8) Likely Republican (56) breaking fundraiser Likely Democratic (20) Likely Republican (15) Maine At-Large (2) Nevada (6)# Ohio (18) nipping at the heels Minnesota (10) Nevada (6) South Carolina (9) of the freshman Solid Democratic (210) Solid Republican (125) New Hampshire (4)# Utah (6) Sullivan in just a California (55) Rhode Island (4) Alabama (9) North Dakota (3) year. It’s still not Solid Democratic (212) Solid Republican (88) Colorado (9) Vermont (3) Alaska (3) Oklahoma (7) clear if he has what California (55) New Mexico (5) Alabama (9) South Dakota (3) Connecticut (7) Virginia (13) Arkansas (6) South Carolina (9) it takes to complete Colorado (9) New York (29) Arkansas (6) Tennessee (11) Delaware (3) Washington (12) Idaho (4) South Dakota (3) the upset, but he will Connecticut (7) Oregon (7) Idaho (4) West Virginia (5) D.C. (3) Indiana (11) Tennessee (11) get as good a look Delaware (3) Rhode Island (4) Indiana (11) Wyoming (3) Hawaii (4) Kansas (6) Utah (6) as any Democrat or Democratic-aligned Al Gross for Senate Courtesy D.C. (3) Vermont (3) Kentucky (8) Illinois (20) Kentucky (8) West Virginia (5) Al Gross candidate could Hawaii (4) Virginia (13) Louisiana (8) Maine 1st (1) Louisiana (8) Wyoming (3) hope for. In addition to raking in $9 million from the beginning of July Illinois (20) Washington (12) Mississippi (6) Maryland (10) Mississippi (6) to the end of September (in 2014, Sullivan raised $8 million total), Gross, Maine At-Large (2) Nebraska At-Large (2) Massachusetts (11) Missouri (10) who is running with the endorsement of the Democratic Party, benefits Maine 1st (1) Nebraska 1st (1) New Jersey (14) Montana (3) from a tight presidential race. Trump is barely clinging to a low-single Maryland (10) Nebraska 3rd (1) New Mexico (5) Nebraska At-Large (2) digit lead in the Last Frontier. The state is notoriously difficult to poll, and finicky in its political preferences, but Republicans are taking Gross Massachusetts (11) North Dakota (3) New York (29) Nebraska 1st (1) seriously, with the McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund putting New Jersey (14) Oklahoma (7) Oregon (7) Nebraska 3rd (1) $3.7 million into the race this month. Gross, in addition to his strong 270 needed to win GOP DEM 270 needed to win GOP DEM fundraising, will have help from outside Democratic groups as well, 2016 Results 304 227 2016 Results 304 227 which have committed more than $4 million to help Gross in October. 2020 Ratings 163 319 # moved benefi ting Democrats, 204 268 Republicans still feel confident about this one, but the fact that Alaska is a 2020 Ratings bare knuckle fight is a good indicator of how Democrats have succeeded Toss-up 56 * moved benefi ting Republicans Toss-up 66 in stretching the field this cycle. Likely Republican. # moved benefi ting Democrats, *moved benefi ting Republicans Harstad Strategic Research (D), Oct. 10-13 (LVs)— General Election ballot: Continued on page 3

Stuart Rothenberg @InsideElections Senior Editor [email protected] facebook.com/InsideElections Ryan Matsumoto Bradley Wascher Contributing Analyst Contributing Analyst [email protected] [email protected] Nathan L. Gonzales Jacob Rubashkin Robert Yoon Will Taylor Editor & Publisher Reporter & Analyst Contributing Reporter & Analyst Production Artist [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] @nathanlgonzales @jacobrubashkin

2 October 16, 2020 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH Continued from page 2 Georgia. David Perdue (R), elected 2014 (53%). Jan. 5 runoff (if Gross over Sullivan 47%-46%. necessary). It’s looking increasingly likely that neither Perdue nor Jon Alaska Survey Research (D), Sept. 25 - Oct. 4 (LVs)— General Election Ossoff, his Democratic opponent, will clear the 50 percent threshold ballot: Sullivan over Gross 48%-44%. necessary to win this race outright in November. Libertarian Shane Hazel continues to draw low-single digit support in the polls, and the Arizona. Martha McSally (R), appointed Jan. 2019. Republicans remain presidential race in the state is dead even, providing little by way of more optimistic about McSally’s chances than does the public data or media coattails for either candidate. Republicans continue to see Ossoff as coverage. They believe grossly underqualified for the job — that hasn’t stopped the 33-year-old Trump is closer to filmmaker and investigative journalist from raking in $21.3 million this even in the state than quarter, more than enough to compete down the stretch in this expensive down a few points to state. If the race does go to a runoff, the still-GOP friendly fundamentals Joe Biden, and that of the state favor Perdue. Tilt Republican. the hits against Kelly’s Quinnipiac Univ., Oct. 8-12 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Ossoff over business dealings in Perdue, 51%-46%. China are taking a SurveyUSA for WXIA-TV, Oct. 8-12 (LVs) — General Election ballot: toll on the astronaut’s Perdue over Ossoff, 46%-43%. once-sky high image Data for Progress (D), Oct. 8-11 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Perdue Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call ratings. Even if that’s Martha McSally over Ossoff, 44%-43%, Hazel (L) 3%. the case, McSally has Morning Consult, Oct. 2-11 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Perdue over to run strong over the next two weeks, and it doesn’t help that the last two Ossoff 46%-42%. weeks have not been kind to her. Cindy McCain, widow of the late Arizona Sen. John McCain, endorsed Biden, likely giving him a slight boost at the Georgia. Kelly Loeffler (R) appointed Jan. 6, 2020. Special election top of the ticket. And McSally’s colleague/2018 opponent Sen. Kyrsten Nov. 3 (all candidates), Jan. 5 runoff (if necessary).Over the past month, Sinema cut a biting ad endorsing Kelly in this year’s race. At a debate with Raphael Warnock, the Kelly, McSally repeatedly refused to answer a question about whether she Democrat running was proud of her support for Trump, and tried several times to link Kelly with the backing of negatively to Rep. Ilhan Omar, the Muslim congresswoman from Minnesota the DSCC and most of who has become a staple in GOP attack ads nationwide. Even if this race the Georgia political isn’t a blowout like some polls say, you’d still rather be Kelly. Tilt Democratic. establishment, has Monmouth Univ., Oct. 9-13 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Kelly over largely consolidated McSally, 52%-42%. Democratic support Morning Consult, Oct. 2-11 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Kelly over and positioned McSally 49%-41%. himself as the clear Trafalgar Group (R), Oct. 6-9 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Kelly over for Senate Courtesy Warnock favorite for one of Ralphael Warnock McSally 47%-45%. two January 5 runoff OH Predictive Insights, Oct. 4-8 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Kelly over spots. The real competition in November will be between appointed-Sen. McSally, 50%-45%. Loeffler and GOP Rep. Doug Collins for second place. After stumbling out of the gate in the spring due to allegations of insider trading, Loeffler Colorado. Cory Gardner (R), elected 2014 (48%). Republicans believe solidified herself as the frontrunner in the summer, but has largely fallen Gardner is running as good a campaign as he can, and that former Gov. back into a dead heat with Collins, one of President Trump’s most vocal John Hickenlooper is running as poor a campaign as they can imagine, but defenders in the House. Loeffler has relied on her own vast resources it’s becoming clear that just doesn’t matter. Gardner has trailed in every and penchant for stirring up controversy to keep herself a nose ahead single public poll this cycle, and often by close to double digits, while of Collins, but both may come back to haunt her if she progresses to the the president is stuck 10 points behind Joe Biden. The ongoing fight over runoff against Warnock. With so many key unknowns about the runoff, Amy Coney Barrett’s nomination to the Supreme Court, which Gardner including which candidates make it and whether the seat matters for supports, will only serve to remind voters how close Gardner is to the control of the Senate, our Lean Republican is more of a placeholder deeply unpopular Trump. Whatever ethics clouds or debate missteps that rather than specific analysis. may hang over Hickenlooper’s head are minimal factors compared to Quinnipiac Univ., Oct. 8-12 (LVs) — All-party Special Election ballot: the anti-Trump wave about to hit Colorado. For his part, any lackluster Warnock (D) 41%, Collins (R) 22%, Loeffler (R) 20%, Lieberman (D) 5%, campaigning by Hickenlooper hasn’t stopped him from raising top- Tarver (D) 2%. tier money; the former brewery owner pulled in $22.6 million from the SurveyUSA for WXIA-TV, Oct. 8-12 (LVs) — All-party Special Election beginning of July and the end of September. Move from Tilt Democratic to ballot: Warnock (D) 30%, Loeffler (R) 26%, Collins (R) 20%, Lieberman (D) Lean Democratic. 8%, Tarver (D) 3%. Morning Consult, Oct. 2-11 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Hickenlooper Public Policy Polling (D), Oct. 8-9 (RVs) — All-party Special Election over Gardner 50%-40%. ballot: Warnock (D) 41%, Loeffler, (R) 24%, Collins (R) 22%, Lieberman (D) SurveyUSA for 9News/Colorado Politics, Oct. 1-6 (LVs) — General Election 3%, Tarver (D) 0%. ballot: Hickenlooper over Gardner 48%-39%. Continued on page 4

INSIDEELECTIONS.COM October 16, 2020 3 Continued from page 3 Kentucky. Mitch McConnell (R), elected 1984 (50%), 1990 (52%), 1996 (55%), 2002 (65%), 2008 (53%) and 2014 (56%). Despite raising Iowa. Joni Ernst (R), elected 2014 (51%). This race has largely remained $37 million over the past three months, a record sum that not long ago stable since the summer. That’s not good news for Ernst, who is consistently would have rivaled some presidential campaigns, Marine pilot/2018 6th down low single digits District nominee Amy McGrath is no closer to toppling McConnell in the to businesswoman Bluegrass State. McGrath got in some hot water with the chairman of the Theresa Greenfield Ohio Democratic Party after she started running ads in the Cincinnati in both public and media market featuring a voter explaining why he supported Trump private polling. With and McGrath. If McGrath wants any shot at winning, she’ll need to the presidential race a clean up in the Northern Kentucky Cincinnati suburbs, but it was an dead heat, Ernst has unforced error on her part. She did land a few hits on McConnell during her work cut out for a televised Oct. 12 debate, and the Senate majority leader gifted McGrath her over the next two with perhaps the most compelling summation of her campaign, saying weeks. She’s enjoyed “she’s a Marine, she’s a mom and I’ve been there too long.” While some time in the Caroline Brehman/CQ Roll Call Democrats are bullish in other Republican states, this race doesn’t look Theresa Greenfield spotlight as a member like it’s happening for them. Solid Republican. of the Senate Judiciary Committee because of the Amy Coney Barrett Data for Progress (D), Sept. 14-19 — General Election ballot: McConnell confirmation hearings. But in Iowa, Ernst and her allies are being outspent over McGrath 46%-39%, Barron (L) 3%. massively by Democrats, who have a 2:1 advantage on the airwaves in the final weeks of the race. This one could begin to slip away from Republicans Maine. Susan Collins (R), elected 1996 (49%), 2002 (58%), 2008 if Ernst isn’t able to change the trajectory. And her debate answers on the (61%) and 2014 (69%). The death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg price of soy beans didn’t help. Toss-up. and subsequent Data for Progress (D), Oct. 8-11 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Greenfield confirmation battle over Ernst, 47%-43%, Stewart (L) 2%, Herzog (I) 1%. over Amy Coney YouGov/CBS, Oct. 6-9 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Greenfield over Barrett is doing Ernst 47%-43%. Collins no favors. Civiqs (D) for Daily Kos, Oct. 3-6 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Even if she votes Greenfield over Ernst 49%-46%, Stewart (L) 2%, Herzog (I) 1%. against Barrett, the Quinnipiac Univ., Oct 3-5 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Greenfield over whole episode only Ernst 50%-45%. serves to remind voters of her deeply Pat Roberts (R), not seeking re-election. Kansas is the Roll Call Williams/CQ Tom unpopular vote for Kansas. Susan Collins headache that won’t go away for Republicans, and could veer into full- Brett Kavanaugh two on nightmare territory if things don’t change soon. Democrats haven’t years ago. Collins is mired in the low 40s in polls, a tough place for any won a Senate seat in the Jayhawk state since 1932, but Barbara Bollier incumbent but particularly bad given Maine’s new ranked-choice voting continues to make this race highly competitive. Her strong fundraising system, which both parties expect to aid Democratic state House Speaker (she raised a record-breaking $13.5 million over the past three months) Sara Gideon. Time is running out for Collins to change the trajectory of — and GOP nominee Roger Marshall’s anemic numbers — has forced this race. Tilt Democratic. the McConnell-aligned Super PAC Senate Leadership Fund to spend Pan Atlantic Research, Oct. 2-6 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Gideon $17 million since August. The NRSC is also going up on air, which is the over Collins 47%-40%, Savage (G) 5%, Linn (I) 2%. exact outcome Marshall’s primary victory over the controversial Kris Critical Insights for Bangor Daily News, Sept. 25 - Oct. 4 (LVs) — General Kobach was supposed to avoid. Election ballot: Gideon over Collins 44%-43%, Savage (G) 2%, Linn (I) 1%. With less than three weeks to go until Election Day, it’s becoming Data for Progress (D), Sept. 23-28 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Gideon clear why Republicans were so intense in their efforts to recruit Secretary over Collins 46%-41%, Savage (G) 3%, Linn (I) 1%. of State Mike Pompeo to run for this seat, and why the national party Colby College, Sept. 17-23 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Gideon over took so long to consolidate around Marshall. They’re not getting much Collins 45%-41%, Linn (I) 5%, Savage (G) 3%. help from the top of the ticket, either, with Trump nowhere near to recreating his 20-point victory. He might only win Kansas by a handful of Michigan. Gary Peters (D), elected 2014 (55%). A poll from the points. Move from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican. New York Times showing this a one-point race felt like vindication for VCreek/AMG (R), Sept. 29-30 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Bollier over Republicans who have been singing James’ praises for over a year, Marshall 45%-42%, Buckley (L) 2%. and set off alarm bells within Democratic circles. But it’s not clear that Civiqs (D) for Daily Kos, Sept. 26-29 (LVs) — General Election ballot: this race is as competitive as one poll’s topline result might suggest. Marshall over Bollier 50%-43%. Joe Biden has maintained a healthy lead in the state, and James is GBAO (D) for Bollier Campaign, Sept. 24-47 (LVs) — General Election barely over-performing President Donald Trump. That’s in line with ballot: Bollier over Marshall 45%-43%, Buckley (L) 7%. 2018, when James received 45.8 percent against Democratic Sen. co/efficient (R) for Keep Kansas Great PAC Sept. 15-16 (LVs) — General Debbie Stabenow, when an average statewide candidate in Michigan Election ballot: Marshall over Bollier 43%-39%. Continued on page 5

4 October 16, 2020 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH Continued from page 4 pictured inside the White House maskless and not social distancing). would receive 46.45 percent, according to Inside Elections’ Baseline. That same day — also the day the president was hospitalized with So as long as Peters can bring undecided Biden voters on board, he coronavirus — Cunningham admitted to sending intimate text messages should be okay. It helps that Michigan has straight-ticket voting, with a woman who was not his wife. Later in the week, the AP reported which should take care of some Biden supporters who don’t have an that Cunningham had carried on an affair with a California political opinion on Peters yet. Peters, one of the more low-key members of the consultant through as late as July of this year, and in a sometimes- Democratic caucus, also made news for sharing with Elle magazine painful press conference, Cunningham repeatedly dodged questions the personal story of his wife’s abortion in the 1980s. Of the three key about whether he had been involved with other women as well. Tillis Rust Belt states, Michigan is the only one that will start processing has begun his star turn as a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, absentee ballots before Election Day, per new legislation signed by Gov. attending the Barrett confirmation hearings in person despite receiving Gretchen Whitmer, so we should have a decent picture of where things his Covid-19 diagnosis less than two weeks prior (he says he’s been stand the night polls close. Lean Democratic. cleared to do so by his doctor). EPIC-MRA for the Detroit Free Press, Oct. 8-12 (LVs) — General Election Despite all that, it’s not clear if the race has fundamentally shifted. ballot: Peters over James, 45%-39%. Cunningham still maintains a persistent edge over Tillis according to Reuters/Ipsos, Oct. 7-13 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Peters over James multiple recent public polls, while Joe Biden maintains a similar, though 52%-44%. smaller, advantage. Republicans had previously begun to write this New York Times/Siena College, Oct. 6-11 (LVs) — General Election ballot: race off but have since re-engaged, planning millions of dollars in attack Peters over James 43%-42%. ads focusing on Cunningham’s infidelity. Cunningham will be able Morning Consult, Oct. 2-11 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Peters over to respond in kind — he reported raising $28.3 million in the second James 49%-40%. quarter, and Democrats are set to outspend Republicans more than 2:1 in the final four weeks of this race. Tilt Democratic. Minnesota. Tina Smith (DFL), appointed Jan. 2018, elected 2018 New York Times/Siena College, Oct. 9-13 (LVs) — General Election ballot: special (53%). After flirting with the edges of competitiveness in the Cunningham over Tillis 41%-37%, Bray (L) 4%, Hayes (C) 3%. wake of the mass protests and unrest originating in Minneapolis, this Susquehanna Research & Polling Inc. (R) for American Greatness PAC, Oct. race remains outside the Senate battlefield. Smith maintains a steady, 7-11 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Cunningham over Tillis 46%-44%. high-single digit lead over former GOP Rep. Jason Lewis, who doesn’t Reuters/Ipsos, Oct. 7-13 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Cunningham over have significant financial resources of his own and is not getting any Tillis 46%-42%. help from either the Trump campaign, which is being forced to cut Monmouth Univ., Oct. 8-11 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Cunningham back its ad spending, or outside GOP groups which are almost entirely over Tillis 49%-44%. focused on defense. On his own, it’s hard to see how Lewis pulls off an upset. Solid Democratic. South Carolina. Lindsey Graham (R), elected 2002 (54%), 2008 SurveyUSA for KAAL-TV, Oct. 1-6 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Smith (58%) and 2014 (55%). Jaime Harrison, the 44-year-old DNC associate over Lewis 44%-37%. chairman and former Suffolk Univ., Sept. 20-24 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Smith over head of the South Lewis 45%-35%. Carolina Democratic Party, made national Montana. Steve Daines (R), elected 2014 (58%). In this consistently news when he broke close race there’s one guarantee: Steve is going to win. Even though the single-quarter Gov. Steve Bullock is one of Democrats’ top recruits this cycle, this fundraising Senate probably wouldn’t be a neck-and-neck race if not for Trump’s struggles fundraising record. at the top of the ticket. If the president could simply win the state by Harrison pulled in half of his 20-point margin in 2016, Daines would be in fine shape. But $57 million from the Trump’s currently leading Joe Biden in the low to mid-single digits. Nathan Quellette/CQ Roll Call beginning of July to Jaime Harrison With that narrow margin and Republicans being unable to bury Bullock, the end of September, Democrats have a shot to win here. Toss-up. outpacing the previous record-holder, 2018 Texas Senate candidate Beto Public Policy Polling (D), Oct. 9-10 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Daines O’Rourke, by $19 million. and Bullock tied at 48%. Republicans scored a coup of their own when they convinced Emerson College, Oct. 5-7 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Daines over Constitution Party candidate Bill Bledsoe to drop out of the race and Bullock 52%-43%. endorse Graham. Harrison had been hoping Bledsoe would siphon Montana State University Bozeman, Sept. 14-Oct. 2 (LVs) — General off some of the Republican vote, making it easier for him to score a Election ballot: Daines over Bullock 49%-47%. plurality victory. But Bledsoe, who had no money and was not a real factor on the campaign trail, will still appear on the ballot, potentially North Carolina. Thom Tillis (R), elected 2014 (49%). The past taking away voters Graham would need, particularly since Democrats two weeks have featured a whirlwind of developments in this key are spending money to boost his profile. Republicans also won a Senate race. First, Tillis announced he tested positive for coronavirus victory at the U.S. Supreme Court, which reinstated the state’s witness after attending the White House festivities surrounding the Amy Coney requirement for absentee ballots, which had previously been struck Barrett nomination (Tillis wore a mask for the outside ceremony but was Continued on page 6

INSIDEELECTIONS.COM October 16, 2020 5 Continued from page 5 down by a lower court. Governor Report Shorts The McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund is spending $13 million on the airwaves to bolster Graham through October, in addition Missouri. Mike Parson (R) ascended to governorship June 2018. to $5 million from the pro-Graham Security is Strength super PAC. This race remains Democrats’ one legitimate pickup opportunity of the Harrison’s allies at the Senate Majority PAC are chipping in nearly $6 cycle. State Auditor Nicole Galloway has continued her streak of strong million to help him, but the candidate is more than holding his own with fundraising, matching or outraising Parson for the last several filing more than $27 million in ad reservations for the month of October, the periods, though the outside PAC supporting Parson, backed by the RGA, most of any Senate candidate in the country. At this point, Republicans has consistently pulled in more than Galloway’s equivalent, backed by are just relying on Trump to win the state by enough to pull Graham the DGA and EMILY’s List. As of now, Galloway and her allies are set to across the line. Tilt Republican. outspend Parson and his in the final weeks of the race. New York Times/Siena College, Oct. 9-15 (LVs) — General Election ballot: President Donald Trump is struggling mightily in the Kansas City Graham over Harrison 46%-40%. and St. Louis suburbs, making Missouri more competitive on the Data for Progress (D), Oct. 8-11 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Harrison presidential level and providing an opening for Galloway. Democrats over Graham 47%-46%. believe that Parson’s response to covid, including his comments on Morning Consult, Oct. 2-11 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Graham over sending kids back to school and his laissez-faire attitude toward Harrison 48%-42%. masks, will come back to haunt him, especially after the governor ALG Research (D) for Lindsey Must Go PAC, Sept. 29 - Oct. 5 (LVs) — himself fell sick with the virus in late September. Democrats released General Election ballot: Graham and Harrison tied at 46%, Bledsoe (C) 3%. a late September poll showing Galloway and Joe Biden down just 2 points each. That’s generous to Galloway, but other public and Texas. John Cornyn (R), elected 2002 (55%), 2008 (65%) and 2014 private polling has this as a single-digit race, with Parson still (62%). Texas continues to sit on the periphery of the battleground even struggling to exceed to 50 percent. As one of just two competitive as Democrats see their gubernatorial races, a lot of attention and resources are going to be stock rise in other lavished on Missouri in the final weeks, making this one to watch, states. Democrats especially if the president can’t reverse course soon. Move from Likely launched ultimately Republican to Lean Republican. unsuccessful lawsuits YouGov for St. Louis University, Sept. 24 - Oct. 7 (LVs)— General Election to reinstate straight- ballot: Parson over Galloway, 50%-44%. ticket voting and Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D) for Galloway Campaign, Sept. 28 - require more than Oct. 2 (LVs)— General Election ballot: Parson over Galloway, 50%-48%. one absentee ballot Remington Research Group (R), Sept. 30 - Oct. 1 (LVs)— General Election drop-off location per ballot: Parson over Galloway, 51%-44%. Courtesy MJ Hegar for Senate county — both saw MJ Hegar initial victories at the district court level before being overturned by the 5th Circuit. And MJ Hegar continues to struggle to introduce herself to the state’s voters. She 2020 Gubernatorial Ratings suffered an embarrassing setback when her primary opponent, State Toss-Up Sen. Royce West, said he would not vote for her, a comment quickly MT Open (Bullock, D) incorporated into a Cornyn ad. Tilt Democratic Tilt Republican But it is not all bad news for the former helicopter pilot, who likely trails Cornyn by mid-single digits. Texas has seen astounding growth Lean Democratic Lean Republican in voter registration, adding nearly 300,000 new voters in the past three Cooper (D-N.C.) Parson (R-Mo.)# weeks alone, and 1.8 million new voters since the 2016 election, which Donald Trump won by 800,000 votes. Democrats believe that this new Likely Democratic Likely Republican cohort is younger, more diverse, and less Republican than the rest of Sununu (R-N.H.) the electorate. Heavy early voting, extended in Texas because of the Solid Democratic Solid Republican pandemic, is also a bright spot for Democrats in the state. And Biden Carney (D-Del.) UT Open (Herbert, R) going up with ads in the El Paso and San Antonio media markets could Inslee (D-Wash.) Burgum (R-N.D.) boost the whole ticket. Lean Republican. GOP DEM Holcomb (R-Ind.) Morning Consult, Oct. 2-11 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Cornyn over Current Governors 26 24 Justice (R-W.V.) Hegar 47%-38%. Not Up This Cycle 19 20 Scott (R-Vt.)* Pulse Opinion Research (R) for Crosswind PR, Oct. 5-6 (LVs) — General Currently Solid 5 2 Election ballot: Cornyn over Hegar 48%-39%. Competitive 2 2 Civiqs (D) for Daily Kos, Oct. 3-6 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Cornyn over Hegar 47%-46%, McKennon (L) 2%. Takeovers in Italics, # moved beneﬁ ting Democrats, * moved beneﬁ ting Republicans Data for Progress (D), Sept. 30 - Oct. 5 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Cornyn over Hegar 45%-42%, McKennon (L) 1%.

6 October 16, 2020 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH GOP DEM IN 2 (Walorski, Beutler, R) R) 115th Congress 240 195 MI 6 (Upton, R) WA 5 (McMorris Currently Solid 161 187 MI 7 Rodgers, R) (Walberg,R) Competitive 79 8 MT A-L (Gianforte, R) Needed for majority 218 OH 14 (Joyce, R) House Report Shorts

Arizona. mixed and Davis’s chances of winning are less clear. Move from Tilt 6th District (Scottsdale and North Phoenix) Dave Schweikert, R, Republican to Toss-up. re-elected 55%. Trump 52%. Strong performances at the top of the ticket from Joe Biden and Mark Kelly, the ongoing leftward shifts of educated, Iowa. wealthy suburbs like the ones that make up this district, and Schweikert’s 3rd District (Des Moines and southwestern Iowa) Cindy Axne, myriad of ethics issues make this a prime pick-up opportunity for elected 49%. Trump 49%. Former GOP Rep. David Young lost re-election Democrats. Their candidate, Hiral Tipirneni, has a solid profile for the in this seat by 2 points in 2018 and he’s struggling in his comeback national moment as an immigrant and emergency room doctor and cancer bid. The race is competitive, but the congresswoman has had a distinct research advocate, and has more than lapped the floundering Schweikert advantage for at least the last few weeks. Trump’s inability to win the in fundraising. Move from Tilt Republican to Toss-up. district as he did four years ago is contributing to Republicans’ difficulty in defeating Axne. Move from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic. Arkansas. 2nd District (Greater Little Rock) French Hill, R, elected 52%. Kansas. Trump 52%. Public and private polling confirm that Democrat Joyce 3rd District (Suburban Kansas City area) Sharice Davids, D, elected Elliott is running even with the congressman. We think of Arkansas as 54%. Clinton 47%. Davids’ victory over then-Rep. Kevin Yoder in 2018 a red state, but this is a competitive district in this environment. Move wasn’t close, and the former MMA fighter turned White House fellow from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican. hasn’t looked back since. With Trump struggling to carry Kansas by more than 5 or 6 points, Barbara Bollier running the strongest Democratic Florida. campaign for Senate in decades, and GOP challenger Amanda Adkins 18th District (Treasure Coast and Palm Beach area) Brian Mast, long ago triaged by national Republicans, this cake is all but baked. R, re-elected 54%. Trump 53%. Former Navy JAG Pam Keith, the Move from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic. Democratic nominee, isn’t the perfect challenger, and she has plenty of work to do before knocking off the congressman. But Trump is at risk Maine. of losing this district after a 9-point victory in 2016. And that can’t make 2nd District (Northern Maine) Jared Golden, D, elected 51%. Mast feel comfortable. Move from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. Trump 51%. What started the cycle as a prime takeover opportunity 26th District (Southwestern Miami area and the Florida Keys) for Republicans has fallen off the board of competitive races — a Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, D, elected 51%. Clinton 57%. This was consequence of two factors. First, Republicans were unable to field a top- turning into one of the best GOP takeover opportunities in the country tier challenger to take on the freshman Golden, settling for former state with Republican Carlos Giménez cutting across partisan lines for Rep. Dale Crafts, who has been a weak fundraiser. Second, Joe Biden support and President Trump doing better than expected in the South has made up ground among rural white voters, especially in the North, Florida district. But it looks like Biden is slowly getting closer to Clinton’s making this district, which Trump won by 10 points, a presidential toss- 16-point victory in 2016 and the House race is moving back to what we up. With just three weeks to go, this race is looking less competitive than thought it would do all along. Move from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic. ever. Move from Lean Democratic to Solid Democratic. 27th District (Southern Miami area and Coral Gables) Donna Shalala, D, elected 52%. Clinton 59%. In early September, Republicans released a Minnesota. poll, which showed former TV news anchor Maria Elvira Salazar leading 1st District (Southern Minnesota) Jim Hagedorn, R, elected 50%. the congresswoman by 3 points. But that poll was either an outlier or the Trump 53%. Hagedorn’s ethics troubles have continued, this time with race has shifted dramatically back to something close to the district Hillary a report in Politico indicating that the freshman congressman may have Clinton carried by nearly 20 points in 2016. Republicans are going to have used a donor’s office space rent-free for his campaign headquarters, a hard time taking this district away from Shalala. Solid Democratic. which would be a violation of campaign finance law. The news comes as Hagedorn is already facing criticism for spending taxpayer-funded Georgia. Congressional office funds on contracts with members of his own 6th District (Northern Atlanta suburbs) Lucy McBath, D, elected 51%. staff and their families. Democrat Dan Feehan, who narrowly lost to Trump 48%. Even though Trump won the district four years ago, he’s on Hagedorn two years ago, has zeroed in on an anti-corruption message pace to lose it by double digits this fall. That makes it virtually impossible in the closing days of the campaign. Democrats are increasingly bullish for former GOP Rep. Karen Handel to defeat the congresswoman. The on his chances, and private polling agrees. Move from Tilt Republican to president’s demise in the district is a good example of why Georgia is so Toss-up. competitive statewide. Move from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic. 2nd District (Southern Twin Cities suburbs) Angie Craig, DFL, elected 53%. Trump 47%. This race was thrown into chaos following the Illinois. death of Legal Marijuana Now candidate Adam Weeks, which triggered 13th District (Central Illinois) Rodney Davis, R, re-elected a new Minnesota law that requires elections to be voided and re-run if 50%. Trump 49.7%. Even after a narrow victory in 2018, it looked a candidate from a “major party” dies close to Election Day. Due to its like the congressman had developed a narrow but clear advantage performance in the 2018 state attorney general race, the Legal Marijuana over Democrat Betsy Dirksen Londrigan. But now the data is more Continued on page 8

INSIDEELECTIONS.COM October 16, 2020 7 Continued from page 7 spite of the president’s problems nationwide, Trump is poised to win the Now Party enjoys major party status, so in the wake of Weeks’ death, rural district by a healthy margin. That should boost Republican Yvette the Minnesota Secretary of State announced that this election would be Herrell’s chances, even though she lost to Small two years ago. The voided and run again in February 2021. congresswoman could still eke out a victory, but this looks like it will be Craig, the favorite against Marine veteran Tyler Kistner, would have another close race. Move from Tilt Democratic to Toss-up. been disadvantaged by having to run in a low-turnout February special election. She successfully sued the state, and a federal judge sided with New York. her, ordering that the election for this seat be held on Nov. 3 as previously 1st District (Eastern Suffolk County) Lee Zeldin, R, re-elected planned. Kistner has appealed the ruling, but it is unclear if he will be 52%. Trump 55%. Republicans have long been confident about successful. For now, we will assume this race is taking place on Nov. 3, so Zeldin’s chances in this Long Island district that includes the ultra- it will remain Solid Democratic. wealthy Hamptons as well as North Fork farmland and working class 7th District (Western Minnesota) Collin Peterson, DFL, re-elected neighborhoods, arguing that Democrat Nancy Goroff, the former 52%. Trump 62%. Democrats are poised to expand their majority but it chairwoman of the Stony Brook chemistry department, was a poor fit for looks like it could be without the chairman of the Agriculture Committee. the district. But that may not be enough to save Zeldin if the suburban The congressman has survived any political circumstances, including 2016 backlash to the president crests just a few miles away from midtown’s when Trump won his rural district by 30 points. But this could be where Trump Tower. Biden is threatening to carry this district, and Goroff and it ends. Republicans are confident former Lt. Gov. Michelle Fischbach is her allies are set to outspend Zeldin and his allies more than 2:1 on the leading Peterson, even if Trump wins the district by a more narrow margin. airwaves in the final three weeks of this race. The incumbent is not as Democrats are pretty tight-lipped about the race, which might be all we need safe as he once was. Move from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. to know about his chances. Move from Tilt Democratic to Toss-up. 11th District (Staten Island and part of southern Brooklyn) Max Rose, D, elected 53%. Trump 54%. Over the summer, even some Missouri. Republicans began to think this district was moving out of reach for 2nd District (Suburban St. Louis) Ann Wagner, R, re-elected 51%. them, with Rose’s highly publicized deployment in the National Guard Trump 53%. With statewide polls showing President Trump coming boosting the freshman representative’s image. But a renewed focus on nowhere near his 20-point victory from 2016, it makes sense that law and order issues has given GOP nominee Nicole Malliotakis an Democrats are making real gains in this suburban district. Democratic opening in this working class district where much of New York City’s state Sen. Jill Schupp is a credible candidate who can take advantage first responders live. In recent weeks, Rose has used his considerable if there is indeed a suburban wave against the president and the entire financial advantage to run a mix of humorous ads about his short stature Republican Party. Move from Tilt Republican to Toss-up. and baldness, and direct-to-camera spots where he attacks New York City’s (Democratic, unpopular) Mayor Bill de Blasio; in one ad he even New Jersey. talks about defending Trump, a sign that he knows he’ll likely need 2nd District (Southern New Jersey coast) Jeff Van Drew, R, crossover support in November. For now, Democrats are outspending elected (as a Democrat) 53%. Trump 51%. Van Drew remains one Republicans 3:1 in this expensive district. Toss-up. of the most endangered incumbents on the map. Rather than face a 24th District (Syracuse area) John Katko, R, re-elected 53%. Clinton tough Democratic primary because of his anti-impeachment position, 49%. Democrat Dana Balter suffered a setback when a New York appellate he became a Republican and decided to bank on a strong Trump court ruled that Working Families Party nominee Steve Williams had to performance in this district, plus a sub-par Democratic opponent in remain on the ballot in this hotly contested upstate race. The WFP had Montclair State Prof. Brigid Callahan Harrison, to carry him to victory. nominated Williams as a placeholder, intending to swap him out for Instead, Trump is struggling to break even in this district after winning the winner of the Democratic Primary, which took place after the WFP it by 5 points in 2016, and Van Drew is facing Amy Kennedy, the well- nominating convention. But due to a bureaucratic oversight they were funded schoolteacher who married into America’s most famous political not able to successfully swap in Balter, leaving the party in the awkward dynasty but also has deep roots in South Jersey. Van Drew has made a position of telling voters not to vote for their line — Williams too has career of winning tough races, but this is his toughest one yet. Toss-up. repeatedly stated he supports Balter. In a close race, every vote matters, 3rd District (Philadelphia suburbs and central Jersey Shore) Andy and when Williams is included in polls, he consistently draws support Kim, D, elected 50%. Trump 51%. Republicans persuaded businessman in the low single digits. Even though Joe Biden is on track to romp in this David Richter to run in this district instead of New Jersey’s 2nd after district, the number of votes for the WFP ticket could potentially be the 2nd District Rep. Jeff Van Drew switched parties. The arrangement was difference between victory and defeat for Balter. Tilt Republican. supposed to benefit the GOP in both districts, but that’s not how things have turned out. In addition to Van Drew’s struggles in the 2nd, Richter North Carolina. has failed to catch on against Kim. Neither party talks about this race 11th District (Appalachian North Carolina) Vacant; Mark Meadows, as competitive, and polling consistently shows Kim with a double-digit R, resigned to become White House chief of staff. Trump 57%. For lead. Move from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic. a supposedly safe district, Republicans are spending a lot of money. The GOP-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund and the National New Mexico. Republican Congressional Committee have spent or reserved $750,000 2nd District (Southern New Mexico) Xochitl Torres Small, elected in TV ads for the race to help boost 24-year-old motivational speaker 51%. Trump 50%. Small is regarded as one of Democrats’ most talented Madison Cawthorn. Considering Trump won the district by 17 points new members, but she’s also running in one of the toughest districts. In Continued on page 9

8 October 16, 2020 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH Continued from page 8 top of the ballot could be enough for Ortiz Jones to win, but this race is in 2016, Democratic nominee Moe Davis shouldn’t be close. But the not as certain as what it looked like earlier in the cycle. This decade, all former Guantanamo Bay prosecutor and Air Force colonel is very much four races have been decided by less than 5 points and the last two were in the race, even if he’s a bit of a wild card himself. Move from Solid extremely close. Move from Lean Democratic to Tilt Democratic. Republican to Likely Republican. 32nd District (Suburban North Dallas) Colin Allred, D, elected 52%. Clinton 49%. Considering Clinton carried the district by less than 2 Pennsylvania. points in 2016, this was supposed to be a top GOP takeover opportunity. 8th District (Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and northeastern Pennsylvania) But Biden is poised to win the district by double-digits and there’s no Matt Cartwright, D, re-elected 55%. Trump 53%. Not only will the real evidence GOP tech executive Genevieve Collins has a legitimate president fail to match his 10-point victory four years ago, Trump might Continued on page 10 not win the district at all. GOP nominee Jim Bognet needs a strong Trump showing at the top of the ballot to defeat the congressman, but that’s unlikely to happen considering Biden has at least a 7-point edge 2020 House Ratings statewide. Move from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic. Toss-Up (14R, 5D, 1L) 10th District (Harrisburg and York) Scott Perry, R, re-elected 51%. AZ 6 (Schweikert, R)# NM 2 (Torres Small, D)* Trump 52%. The race between state Auditor Eugene DePasquale and CA 21 (Cox, D) NY 2 (Open; King, R) the congressman has descended into one of the closest in the country. CA 25 (Garcia, R) NJ 2 (Van Drew, R) The House race is close as well as the presidential race, which is not an IL 13 (Davis, R)# NY 11 (Rose, D) encouraging sign for Republicans considering Trump won the district by IN 5 (Open; Brooks, R) OH 1 (Chabot, R) nearly 9 points in 2016. Move from Tilt Republican to Toss-up. MI 3 (Open; Amash, L) OK 5 (Horn, D) MN 1 (Hagedorn, R)# PA 10 (Perry, R)# South Carolina. MN 7 (Peterson, DFL)* TX 21 (Roy, R)# 1st District (Charleston and coastal South Carolina) Joe MO 2 (Wagner, R)# TX 22 (Open; Olson, R) Cunningham, D, elected 51%. Trump 54%. Trump won the district by NE 2 (Bacon, R) TX 24 (Open; Marchant, R) 13 points in 2016 but Biden is running virtually even with the president Tilt Democratic (6D, 2R) Tilt Republican (3R) this year. That’s boosting the congressman’s chances for a second term FL 26 (Mucarsel-Powell, D)# AR 2 (Hill, R)# against GOP nominee Nancy Mace. A Democratic Senate nominee GA 7 (Open; Woodall, R) NY 24 (Katko, R) running a well-funded and spirited challenge to GOP Sen. Lindsey IA 1 (Finkenauer, D) VA 5 (Open; Riggleman, R)# Graham can’t hurt Cunningham’s chances either. Initially, this was a top IA 2 (Open; Loebsack, D) GOP DEM Republican takeover target but it might not even be close when all the NY 22 (Brindisi, D) 116th Congress 201 233 votes are counted. Move from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic. TX 23 (Open; Hurd, R)* Currently Solid 161 207 Texas. UT 4 (McAdams, D) Competitive 40 26 10th District (Austin to western Houston) Mike McCaul, R, re-elected VA 7 (Spanberger, D) Needed for majority 218 51%. Trump 52%. Democrats are feeling bullish about 2018 nominee Mike Lean Democratic (6D) Lean Republican (6R) Siegel’s chances while Republicans believe the president will win the CA 48 (Rouda, D) CO 3 (Open; Tipton, R) district again, albeit narrowly, and McCaul will run a few points better. GA 6 (McBath, D)# FL 15 (Spano, R) McCaul, one of wealthiest members of Congress, had the opportunity to IA 3 (Axne, D)# MT AL (Open; Gianforte, R) put this race out of reach with a deluge of ads, but instead, this is still a NJ 7 (Malinowski, D) NC 8 (Hudson, R) competitive contest that could nip him at the end. Likely Republican. SC 1 (Cunningham, D)# NY 1 (Zeldin, R)# 21st District (Parts of Austin and San Antonio connected by Texas VA 2 (Luria, D) PA 1 (Fitzpatrck, R) Hill Country) Chip Roy, R, elected 50%. Trump 53%. After all the hype Likely Democratic (9D, 2R) Likely Republican (13R) surrounding her gubernatorial run and subsequent loss, there are plenty of AZ 1 (O’Halleran, D) AK AL (Young, R) people — even Democrats — who doubt Wendy Davis’ ability to win a big CA 39 (Cisneros. D) CA 50 (Vacant, Hunter, R) race. But Biden is on track to win this district — potentially by a wide margin NC 2 (Open; Holding, R) FL 16 (Buchanan, R) — and this could be the boost Davis needs to get over the top. Roy doesn’t NC 6 (Open; Walker, R) FL 18 (Mast, R)# have specific flaws but it’s not clear he’s strong enough to outrun the top of NH 1 (Pappas, D) MI 6 (Upton, R) the ticket by enough to win. Move from Tilt Republican to Toss-up. NJ 3 (Kim, D)# NC 11 (Vacant, Meadows, R)# 23rd District (El Paso and San Antonio) Open; Will Hurd, R, not NV 3 (Lee, D) OH 10 (Turner, R) seeking re-election. Clinton 49.8%. An open seat that Hillary Clinton OR 4 (DeFazio, D) TX 2 (Crenshaw, R) carried in 2016 should be at the top of Democratic takeover lists. But this PA 17 (Lamb, D) TX 3 (Taylor, R) district is also rural and the president hasn’t fallen nearly as far as he TX 7 (Fletcher, D) TX 6 (Wright, R) has in other seats around the country. Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones came within less than 1 point of winning in 2018 and has been the frontrunner WI 3 (Kind, D) TX 10 (McCaul, R) for most of this cycle. Republican Tony Gonzales is somewhat TX 25 (Williams, R) underfunded, but he’s also Hispanic and a Navy veteran, which gives WA 3 (Herrera-Beutler, R) # moved beneﬁ ting Democrats, * moved beneﬁ ting Republicans Takeovers in Italics him a strong profile for the district. A narrow Joe Biden victory at the

INSIDEELECTIONS.COM October 16, 2020 9 Virginia Baseline by District Highlights Democratic Strength in the House

By Ryan Matsumoto

In 2018, Virginia was a crucial state in the battle for the House. Similar The 7th District is based in the Richmond suburbs and leans to their gains nationwide, Democrats flipped three suburban Republican- Republican, with a Baseline of R+6.18. Although Trump carried the district held districts: the 2nd, 7th, and 10th. Virginia will continue to play an by 6 points in 2016 and Republicans carried the district in all three state important role in 2020 House elections, with competitive races in the 2nd, executive elections in 2017, Democrat Abigail Spanberger flipped the seat 5th, and 7th Districts. by 2 points in 2018. Spanberger is the narrow favorite to hold her seat — One of Inside Elections’ key statistics for analyzing districts is Baseline, we currently rate this district as Tilt Democratic. The fact that Democrats which captures a state or congressional district’s political performance by are favored in a Republican-leaning district like this one shows why they combining all federal and state election results over the past four election are such heavy favorites to maintain their House majority. cycles into a single average. The 5th District, which includes Charlottesville and South-central After the midterms, we rolled out Baseline at the state-level for all 50 Virginia, has a Baseline of R+9.77. Republicans have carried this district states. But Baseline can also be calculated for individual congressional in every single statewide election this decade, but Democratic Sen. Tim districts. We are excited to start rolling out Baseline statistics at the Kaine only lost it by 2 points in 2018. A combination of factors (an open district level, and after kicking things off with Texas, we are releasing race, a strong Democratic nominee and a weak Republican one, and Baseline by district for Virginia. Trump’s underperformance at the top of the ballot) have made the 5th District competitive this year — and in this issue we’re changing our Competitive Districts rating from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican. Four of Virginia’s districts have been competitive over the last decade, with Baselines of less than 10 percentage points in either direction. The Bottom Line The 10th District, based in the northern Virginia suburbs outside Analyzing Virginia districts using Baseline shows why Democrats Washington D.C., was the first district to be called as a Democratic flip on are strong favorites to maintain control of the House. They are virtually election night 2018. Its Baseline is D+2.31, reflecting both its Republican- guaranteed to hold the Democratic-leaning 10th District, are favored to leaning past (Republicans carried the district in seven of 10 elections hold two districts with Republican Baselines (the 2nd and the 7th), and are from 2012 through 2016) as well as its sharp turn to the left in the Donald competitive in the 5th District, which has a significant Republican lean. Trump era (Democrats carried the district by double-digits in four of five elections in 2017 and 2018). The 10th District is one of the mostly highly- educated districts in the nation (about 57 percent of its adults have a Virginia Baseline (2012 - 2019) bachelor’s degree or higher), which is a key reason why we currently rate District Democrat Republican Margin Incumbent it as Solid Democratic for the 2020 House elections. 1st 43.03% 55.15% -12.12% Rob Wittman (R) The 2nd District is based in Virginia Beach and is a true swing district, 2nd 48.59% 49.48% -0.89% Elaine Luria (D) with a Baseline of R+0.89. While it voted for Trump by 3 points in 2016, 3rd 66.58% 31.98% 34.61% Bobby Scott (D) Democrat Elaine Luria flipped the seat in the 2018 midterm elections. 4th 60.54% 37.67% 22.87% Donald McEachin (D) This November, Rep. Luria is favored to keep her seat — we currently rate this district as Lean Democratic. 5th 44.29% 54.06% -9.77% Denver Riggleman (R) 6th 37.64% 60.57% -22.93% Ben Cline (R) 7th 45.89% 52.07% -6.18% Abigail Spanberger (D) Continued from page 9 8th 70.97% 26.84% 44.13% Don Beyer (D) chance at knocking off the incumbent. It didn’t help that Collins missed 9th 33.81% 64.69% -30.88% Morgan Griffith (R) a debate because of an emergency appendectomy and subsequent 10th 50.32% 48.01% 2.31% Jennifer Wexton (D) surgeries because of complications. Move from Likely Democratic to 11th 64.99% 33.02% 31.98% Gerry Connolly (D) Solid Democratic. Statewide 51.60% 46.52% 5.07% 7D - 4R Virginia. Source: Virginia Department of Elections 5th District. (Charlottesville and South-central Virginia) Open; DenverCalendar Riggleman, R, lost renomination. Trump 53%. Republicans are Julystill convinced13-16 Democratic that their National struggles Convention to hold this (Milwaukee) now-open seat can be solvedAug. with 24-27 heavy Republican spending National on TV ads.Convention But the race(Charlotte) hasn’t turned yet CALENDAR Sept. 29 First Presidential Debate (Indiana) and Democratic nominee Cameron Webb and GOP nominee Bob Good Oct. 22 Final Presidential Debate (Tennessee) Moderator: Kristen Welker are Oct.locked 7 Only in a neck-and-neckVice Presidential battle. Debate Republicans (Utah) are running out of time Oct. 15 Second Presidential Debate (Michigan) Nov. 3 Election Day to make sure GOP voters “come home.” Move from Lean Republican to Oct. 22 Third Presidential Debate (Tennessee) Jan. 5 Georgia Senate Runoffs (if necessary) Tiltww Republican.

10 October 16, 2020 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH

CALENDAR July 30-31 Democratic Presidential Debates (Detroit, Mich.) Oct. 12 Louisiana Gubernatorial Jungle Primary Aug. 6 Mississippi Gubernatorial Primary Nov. 5 Mississippi and Kentucky Gubernatorial General Elections Aug. 27 Mississippi Gubernatorial Primary Runoff Nov. 16 Louisiana Gubernatorial General Election Sept. 10 North Carolina’s 3rd & 9th District Special General Elections Dec. 2 Illinois Candidate Filing Deadline Sept. 12-13 Democratic Presidential Debates Dec. 9 Texas Candidate Filing Deadline