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October 16, 2020 Volume 4, No This issue brought to you by 2020 Elections: Democrats Poised for a Sweep By Nathan L. Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin OCTOBER 16, 2020 VOLUME 4, NO. 20 The unthinkable has happened. A resilient presidential race has shifted, but not in a way that was expected. In the aftermath of President Donald Trump’s first debate performance and subsequent hospitalization for coronavirus, Joe Biden’s 2020 Senate Ratings national standing2020 has improvedSenate by a couple Ratings of points. Toss-Up It hasn’t quite filtered downToss-Up to the state and House level yet, but there are mostly encouraging signs for Democrats up and down the ballot. For Daines (R-Mont.) Ernst (R-Iowa) Collins (R-Maine) Ernst (R-Iowa) most of the cycle, conventional wisdom said the race would tighten in Tilt Democratic Tilt Republican theDaines president’s (R-Mont.) favor in the final weeks.Tillis (R-N.C.) Collins (R-Maine) Graham (R-S.C.) TiltIn theDemocratic presidential race, Biden continuesTilt Republican to have the advantage in the Electoral College. Iowa and Ohio are now rated as a Toss-up. One of the McSally (R-Ariz.) Perdue (R-Ga.) Gardner (R-Colo.) Perdue (R-Ga.) biggest questions is whether Texas will join them in the final weeks. McSally (R-Ariz.) Tillis (R-N.C.) KS Open (Roberts, R)# That’s not the only good news for Biden as he strengthens his grip Lean Democratic Lean Republican onLean other Democraticbattlegrounds. Wisconsin andLean Nebraska’s Republican 2nd District move to Lean Democratic and New Hampshire moves to Likely Democratic. Gardner (R-Colo.)# Cornyn (R-Texas) Peters (D-Mich.) KS Open (Roberts, R) Meanwhile, Trump continues to loseCornyn support (R-Texas) in typically Republican Peters (D-Mich.) Loeffl er (R-Ga.) states. He is holding mid-single digit leadsLoeffl in er Kansas (R-Ga.) and Missouri, where Jones (D-Ala.) he won by 21 and 19 points. Those move to Lean Republican, joining Alaska, Jones (D-Ala.) Likely Democratic Likely Republican which is a single-digit race despite Trump’s 14-point victory in 2016. LikelyWith all Democratic of the rating changes, BidenLikely has a Republican 319 to 163 edge with 56 Sullivan (R-Alaska) electoral votes in states rated as a toss-up.Graham For (R-S.C.) some context, Illinois Sen. Solid Democratic Solid Republican Barack Obama defeated Arizona Sen.Sullivan John McCain (R-Alaska) 365-173 in 2008. NM Open (Udall, D) TN Open (Alexander, R) In the Senate, Democrats are likely to win control. We’re adjusting our mostSolid likely Democratic range to a Democratic netSolid gain of Republican 4 to 6 seats, but Democrats Booker (D-N.J.) WY Open (Enzi, R) areNM more Open likely (Udall, to exceed D) the top endTN of theOpen range (Alexander, than Republicans R) are Coons (D-Del.) Cassidy (R-La.) toBooker maintain (D-N.J.) control. Based on the narrowWY Open advantage (Enzi, Republicans R) enjoy in Durbin (D-Ill.) Capito (R-W.Va.) a Coonshandful (D-Del.) of races, another drop in GOPCassidy support (R-La.) could push Democratic Markey (D-Mass.) Cotton (R-Ark.) gainsDurbin closer (D-Ill.) to 10 or 11 seats. Capito (R-W.Va.) In the House, Democrats will retain and expand their majority. The Merkley (D-Ore.) Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.) Markey (D-Mass.) Cotton (R-Ark.) battlefield continues to shift into GOP territory as initially vulnerable Reed (D-R.I.) Inhofe (R-Okla.) Merkley (D-Ore.) Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.) Democrats drop off the list of competitive races and once-solid Shaheen (D-N.H.) McConnell (R-Ky.) Republican-heldReed (D-R.I.) seats are increasinglyInhofe vulnerable. (R-Okla.) We’re changing our Smith (D-Minn.) Risch (R-Idaho) projectionShaheen to(D-N.H.) a Democratic net gain ofMcConnell between 10 (R-Ky.) and 20 seats. Of course Warner (D-Va.) Rounds (R-S.D.) outcomesSmith (D-Minn.) below or above that are possible.Risch (R-Idaho) WarnerThe 2016 (D-Va.) presidential result casts aRounds shadow (R-S.D.) over any political GOP DEM Sasse (R-Neb.) projection. But what’sGOP often missedDEM is Sassethat data-driven (R-Neb.) projections in 116th Congress 53 47 the116th House Congress and Senate were53 not47 far off in 2016. And in 2018, political GOP DEM Not up this cycle 30 35 handicappers accurately identified the split result in the House (where 115th Congress 51 49 Not up this cycle 30 35 Currently Solid 11 10 Democrats gained seats) and the Senate (where Republicans gained seats). Not up this cycle 42 23 Currently Solid 11 10 Competitive 12 2 It’s possible that there is an abject failure of public opinion polling Currently Solid 4 18 thatCompetitive underestimates GOP12 voters2 across the board or a disproportionately Takeovers in Italics, # moved benefi ting Democrats, * moved benefi ting Republicans Competitive 5 8 large number of undecided voters break for Trump and Republican candidates. That’s just not the most likely outcome. InsideElections.com Senate Report Shorts Alabama. Doug Jones (D), elected 2017 special (50%). A recent New York Times story shed some light on GOP nominee Tommy Tuberville’s finances. It portrays the former Auburn head football coach as a victim 2020 Presidential Ratings 2020 Presidential Ratings who lost millions of dollars in multiple ponzi schemes and questions (Electoral Votes) (Electoral Votes) his “judgement and financial acumen” rather than a perpetrator. While Toss-Up (56) Toss-Up (66) Democrats are on the march into traditionally GOP territory nationwide, this race has been stubbornly static. Democrats admit Jones is still an Georgia (16) Maine 2nd (1) Ohio (18)# Arizona (11)# Florida (29) Nebraska 2nd (1) North Carolina (15) underdog and Republicans are not worried about not taking over this Iowa (6)# North Carolina (15) Wisconsin (10) seat. Lean Republican. Tilt Democratic (40) Tilt Republican (38) Tilt Democratic (36) Tilt Republican (1) Morning Consult, Sept. 11-20 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Tuberville Arizona (11) Florida (29) Texas (38) Michigan (16) Pennsylvania (20) Maine 2nd (1) Texas (38)# over Jones 52%-38%. Lean Democratic (47) Lean Republican (22) Lean Democratic (14) Lean Republican (22) Alaska. Dan Sullivan (R), elected 2014 (48%). Al Gross went from Michigan (16) Pennsylvania (20) Alaska (3) Missouri (10)# Minnesota (10)* New Hampshire (4) Georgia (16)# Iowa (6) being a little-known independent orthopedic surgeon to being a record- Nebraska 2nd (1)# Wisconsin (10)# Kansas (6)# Montana (3) Likely Democratic (8) Likely Republican (56) breaking fundraiser Likely Democratic (20) Likely Republican (15) Maine At-Large (2) Nevada (6)# Ohio (18) nipping at the heels Minnesota (10) Nevada (6) South Carolina (9) of the freshman Solid Democratic (210) Solid Republican (125) New Hampshire (4)# Utah (6) Sullivan in just a California (55) Rhode Island (4) Alabama (9) North Dakota (3) year. It’s still not Solid Democratic (212) Solid Republican (88) Colorado (9) Vermont (3) Alaska (3) Oklahoma (7) clear if he has what California (55) New Mexico (5) Alabama (9) South Dakota (3) Connecticut (7) Virginia (13) Arkansas (6) South Carolina (9) it takes to complete Colorado (9) New York (29) Arkansas (6) Tennessee (11) Delaware (3) Washington (12) Idaho (4) South Dakota (3) the upset, but he will Connecticut (7) Oregon (7) Idaho (4) West Virginia (5) D.C. (3) Indiana (11) Tennessee (11) get as good a look Delaware (3) Rhode Island (4) Indiana (11) Wyoming (3) Hawaii (4) Kansas (6) Utah (6) as any Democrat or Democratic-aligned Al Gross for Senate Courtesy D.C. (3) Vermont (3) Kentucky (8) Illinois (20) Kentucky (8) West Virginia (5) Al Gross candidate could Hawaii (4) Virginia (13) Louisiana (8) Maine 1st (1) Louisiana (8) Wyoming (3) hope for. In addition to raking in $9 million from the beginning of July Illinois (20) Washington (12) Mississippi (6) Maryland (10) Mississippi (6) to the end of September (in 2014, Sullivan raised $8 million total), Gross, Maine At-Large (2) Nebraska At-Large (2) Massachusetts (11) Missouri (10) who is running with the endorsement of the Democratic Party, benefits Maine 1st (1) Nebraska 1st (1) New Jersey (14) Montana (3) from a tight presidential race. Trump is barely clinging to a low-single Maryland (10) Nebraska 3rd (1) New Mexico (5) Nebraska At-Large (2) digit lead in the Last Frontier. The state is notoriously difficult to poll, and finicky in its political preferences, but Republicans are taking Gross Massachusetts (11) North Dakota (3) New York (29) Nebraska 1st (1) seriously, with the McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund putting New Jersey (14) Oklahoma (7) Oregon (7) Nebraska 3rd (1) $3.7 million into the race this month. Gross, in addition to his strong 270 needed to win GOP DEM 270 needed to win GOP DEM fundraising, will have help from outside Democratic groups as well, 2016 Results 304 227 2016 Results 304 227 which have committed more than $4 million to help Gross in October. 2020 Ratings 163 319 # moved benefi ting Democrats, 204 268 Republicans still feel confident about this one, but the fact that Alaska is a 2020 Ratings bare knuckle fight is a good indicator of how Democrats have succeeded Toss-up 56 * moved benefi ting Republicans Toss-up 66 in stretching the field this cycle. Likely Republican. # moved benefi ting Democrats, *moved benefi ting Republicans Harstad Strategic Research (D), Oct. 10-13 (LVs)— General Election ballot: Continued on page 3 Stuart Rothenberg @InsideElections Senior Editor [email protected] facebook.com/InsideElections Ryan Matsumoto Bradley Wascher Contributing Analyst Contributing Analyst [email protected] [email protected] Nathan L. Gonzales Jacob Rubashkin Robert Yoon Will Taylor Editor & Publisher Reporter & Analyst Contributing Reporter & Analyst Production Artist [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] @nathanlgonzales @jacobrubashkin 810 7th Street NE • Washington, DC 20002 • 202-546-2822 Copyright 2020, Inside Elections LLC.
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