The Problems with Megacities

Primary author: Joel Kotkin

Contributing authors: Wendell Cox, Ali Modarres, Aaron M. Renn

Editor: Mandy Shams

Research: Clinton Stiles-Schmidt, Haley Wragg , Grace Kim, Zohar Liebermensch, Dylan Cox

All rights reserved. This book, or parts thereof, may not be reproduced in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or any information storage and retrieval system now known or to be invented, without written permission from the Publisher and the Center forC DemographicsHAPMAN and Policy. UNIVERSITY PRESS Special thank you to Roger Hobbs,PRESS Ann Gordon and Lenae Reiter

CHAPMAN PRESS UNIVERSITY PRESS

2014

PRESS CHAPMAN UNIVERSITYTHE PROBLEM WITH MEGACITIES 1 PRESS

CHAPMAN UNIVERSITY PRESS

CHAPMAN UNIVERSITY PRESS RESEARCH IN ACTION RESEARCH IN ACTION

WILKINSON COLLEGE of Humanities and Social Sciences

RESEARCH IN ACTION RESEARCH IN ACTION

WILKINSON COLLEGE of Humanities and Social Sciences

RESEARCH IN ACTION RESEARCH IN ACTION

WILKINSON COLLEGE of Humanities and Social Sciences

RESEARCH IN ACTION RESEARCH IN ACTION

WILKINSON COLLEGE of Humanities and Social Sciences

Center for Demographics and Policy Center for Demographics and Policy RESEARCH IN ACTION RESEARCH IN ACTION

WILKINSON COLLEGE Center for Demographics and Policy of Humanities and Social Sciences

CHAPMAN CHAPMAN UNIVERSITY UNIVERSITY Center for Demographics and Policy Center for Demographics and Policy

CHAPMAN UNIVERSITY Center for Demographics and Policy

“Demographics is destiny” has become somewhat an overused phrase, but that does not reduce the critical importance of population trends to virtually every aspect of economic, social andC politicalHAPMAN life. Concern over UNIVERSITY demographic trends has been heightened in recent years by several international trends — notablyCenter rapid aging, for reducedDemographics fertility, large scale and migration Policy across borders. On the national level, shifts in attitude, generation and ethnicity have proven decisive in both the political realm and in the economic fortunes of regions and states.

The Center focuses research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and also looks into policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time. In addition it involves Chapman students in demographic research under the supervision of the Center’s senior staff. Students work with the Center’s director and engage in research that will serve them well as they look to develop their careers in business, the social sciences and the arts. They will also have access to our advisory board, which includes distinguished Chapman faculty and major demographic scholars from across the country and the world.

2 CHAPMAN UNIVERSITY • CENTER FOR DEMOGRAPHICS AND POLICY TABLE OF CONTENTS

Author and Contributors...... 4

Student Research Assistants...... 5

Executive Summary...... 7

Urban and Economic Context...... 7

The Evolution of Megacities...... 9

Health and Quality of Life...... 12

The Problems of Gigantism...... 14

The Infrastructure Challenge...... 14

The City of Disappointment...... 15

Is there a better alternative?...... 16

Footnotes and Sources...... 22

THE PROBLEM WITH MEGACITIES 3 AUTHOR:

Joel Kotkin is an internationally-recognized authority on global, economic, political and social trends, Joel Kotkin is the author of the forthcoming THE NEW CLASS CONFLICT, to be published by Telos Press Publishing. His last book THE NEXT HUNDRED MILLION: America in 2050 explores how the nation will evolve in the next four decades. His previous, also critically acclaimed book, was THE CITY: A GLOBAL HISTORY. Mr. Kotkin is the Roger Hobbs Distinguished Fellow in Urban Studies at Chapman University in Orange, California and Executive Editor of the widely read website www.newgeography.com. He writes the weekly “New Geographer” column for Forbes.com. He is a Senior Visiting Fellow at the Civil Service College in Singapore. He serves on the editorial board of the Orange County Register and writes a weekly column for that paper, and is a regular contributor to the Daily Beast.

CONTRIBUTORS:

Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, a St. Louis based international public policy consulting firm. He is co-author of the Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey and author of Demographia World Urban Areas. He has conducted research on demographics and urban policy and is a frequent commentary contributor, having been published in the Daily Telegraph, the Wall Street Journal, the National Post (Toronto), the Los Angeles Times and others. Wendell Cox is also author of the Evolving Urban Form series in newgeography.com. He was appointed to three terms on the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission, where he served with the leading city and county officials as the only non-elected member. He was also appointed to the Amtrak Reform Council and has served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers (CNAM), a national university in Paris. Photos on pages 12-15 courtesy of Mr. Cox.

Ali Modarres is the Director of Urban Studies at University of Washington Tacoma. He is a geographer and landscape architect, specializing in urban planning and policy. He has written extensively about social geography, transportation planning, and urban development issues in American cities.

Aaron M. Renn is an analyst and writer on urban affairs who publishes the Urbanophile (www.urbanophile.com) and runs the urban data analytics platform Telestrian (www. telestrian.com). He was formerly a partner at the global consultancy Accenture.

4 CHAPMAN UNIVERSITY • CENTER FOR DEMOGRAPHICS AND POLICY Wilkinson College of Humanities and Social Sciences is committed to the larger university effort aimed at providing students with access to key researchers. Undergraduate research encompasses both scholarship and creative activity, and has the ability to capture student interest, create enthusiasm for and engagement in, an area of study. An important aspect of the building undergraduate research networks (BURN) program is to embed students within active research groups engaging students in collaborative research across all disciplines in wilkinson college. This gives students extraordinary opportunities to develop their skills, broaden their knowledge, and participate in research in practical and demonstrable ways. Our desire is to create a framework that allows students to experience, and contribute in, original intellectual or creative research impacting their discipline. The ethos of BURN is to facilitate research at the individual and group levels. STUDENT RESEARCH ASSISTANTS:

Special Thanks to the Chapman University students who worked on the project:

Dylan Cox, B.A. Economics, B.S. Business Administration. Graduate 2014.

Zohar Liebermensch, BA in Economics and a BS in Business Administration with minors in Computational Sciences and University Honor's Program. Anticipated Graduation ,2015

Clinton Stiles-Schmidt, BS in Business Administration, Double Emphasis: Real Estate and Finance, BA in Economics. Anticipated Graduation, 2015

Haley Wragg, BA in Business Marketing and Entrepreneurship. Anticipated Graduation December, 2014.

THE PROBLEM WITH MEGACITIES 5 6 CHAPMAN UNIVERSITY • CENTER FOR DEMOGRAPHICS AND POLICY ❰ Shantytown - Rio de Janeiro Megacity & Smaller City Growth: 2000–2010 Executive Summary World Population by Urban Area Size: 2014 Large Nations with Greater Smaller City Growth

No phenomenon more reflects the over 10M 35% sheer power and appeal of urbanism than the rise of megacities, which we define as 7.2% 5M – 10M 30% 4.2% an urban area with more than 10 million 1M – 5M 25% residents (defined as areas of continu- 11.3% ous urban development)1. Until recent 20% decades there were only three — Tokyo 4.1% 500k –1M and New York, joined by a third, Mexico Rural 46.6% 15%

City, only in 1975. Now the megacity has Growth: 2000–2010 11.1% 10% become a global phenomenon that has 100 – 500k dispersed around the planet. There were 5%

29 such cities in 2014 and now account F7 15.7% 0% for roughly 13% of the world’s urban Brazil Egypt India Mexico Turkey United States <100k population and 7% of the world’s total

population (Figure 1). F1 Megacities Cities Urban boosters such as Harvard’s Ed 10M+ 100,000–1M Glaeser suggest that megacities grow because “globalization” and “technological nearby regional markets. As a result, change have increased the returns to be- the rise of megacities in the developing ing smart.” 2 And to be sure, megacities world may be laying the foundation for Urban Population Areas in Millions • Megacities: 2014 Sources: See Demographia World Urban Areas (demographia.com/db-worldua.pdf) such Jakarta, Kolkata (in India), Mumbai, an emerging crisis of urbanity, where Manila, Karachi, and Lagos — all among people crowd 40into giant 37.56cities that lack the top 25 most populous cities in the of the economic and political infrastruc- world — present a great opportunity ture to improve35 their lives. At the end Tokyo for large corporate development firms of this paper, we try to suggest29.96 that they who pledge to fix their problems with may be better 30solutions that steer growth ultra-expensive hardware. They also pro- to smaller cities and towns, and even 25 24.13 vide thrilling features for journalists and seek out ways to improve the life inJakarta 22.99 22.71 22.65 21.59 a rich trove for academic researchers. rural villages. 20.66 20.30 20.27

Delhi 19.28 Like Mr. Glaeser, many Western 20 18.32 Seoul 17.67

Manila 17.23 pundits find much to celebrate about Urban and economic context 15.89 15.25 15.21

Shanghai 14.91 14.90 Karachi 14.82 13.91 13.43 the megacities mushrooming in 15 Beijing 13.19 New York 12.86 12.55 Cities have grown exponentially in Sao Paulo 11.72 10.98

low-income countries. To them, the Mumbai Mexico City Cairo 10.24 10.15 Dhaka size and population10 since 1800. Then, Moscow growth of megacities is justified because Kolkata Bangkok Tehran Lagos Paris it offers something more than unremit- approximately 5% of the world’s popula- Istanbul Los Angeles

4 Shenzhen Nagoya

tion lived in cities. By 2015, the world’s London Guangzhou-Foshan

ting rural poverty. But surely there’s a 5 Buenos Aires better alternative than celebrating slums, urban population will approach 55%. Osaka-Kobe-Kyoto Rio de Janeiro In 1800, only Beijing had a population F2 as one prominent author did recently 0 JP ID IN KR PH CN PK US MX BR CN CN IN JP RU US EG TH IN BD AR IR TR CN NG BR FR JP GB in Foreign Policy bizarrely entitled “In exceeding 1,000,000. Today, that number Praise of Slums”3. has increased to more than 450, and the As demonstrated in our new paper largest, Tokyo, exceeds 35 million.5 on global cities developed with the Civil Cities have played a critical role in increasing the standard of living for peo- Service College of Singapore, many of Fastest Growing Megacities: 2000 – 2014 Probable Future Megacities: 2025 and 2030 Megacity, Other City & Rural Population these emergent megacities in Africa and ple who, in rural isolation, often barely 6 Share of National Populations: 1950 – 2010 elsewhere in the developing world lack of existed# GEO littleCity above a 2014 subsistence Population level. in Millions ‘00–’10 growth By 2025 By 2030 an economic basis sufficient to substan- This process accelerated rapidly in the 1. PK Karachi 21.59 80.5% GEO City GEO City years following 1800, when the scientific, 100% tially compete beyond their national or CN CN 2. CN Shenzhen 12.86 56.1% Chengdu Hangzhou 90% CN Dongguan CN Wuhan 3. NGTHE Lagos PROBLEM WITH MEGA12.55CITIES 7 48.2% 80% 4. CN Beijing, BJ 19.28 47.6% CN Tianjin CO Bogota 70%

5. TH Bangkok 14.91 45.2% CD Kinshasa IN Ahmedabad 60% 6. BD Dhaka 14.82 45.2% IN Bangalore ZA Johannesburg-East Rand 50% 7. CN Guangzhou-Foshan 18.32 43.0% IN Chennai US Chicago 40% 30% 8. CN Shanghai 22.65 40.1% IN Hyderabad PK Lahore 20% 9. IN Delhi 24.13 39.2% Populations National of Share 10% 10. ID Jakarta 29.96 34.6% PE Lima

0% F8 VN Ho Chi Minh City 11. T R Istanbul 13.19 25.3% 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 F5 Sources: See Demographia World Urban Areas (demographia.com/db-worldua.pdf) F3 Sources: See Demographia World Urban Areas (demographia.com/db-worldua.pdf) Rural Urban: Not Megacity Megacities

Urban Population: Latin America South and Central America 1950 – 2050 Projected Population Growth World Urban Population Megacities & Other Large Cities 2014 to 2025 100% by Urban Area Size: 2014 90% over 10M 25% 80% <100k 70% 13.4% 5M – 10M 29.3% 20% 60% 7.8 % 21.2% 24.7% 22.0% 50% 15% 40% 30% 10%

Urban Share Population of 20% 21.1% Projected Population Growth Projected Population 10% 1M – 5M 5%

0% F4 20.8% 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 7.6 % 100 – 500k 500k –1M 0% F9 MegaCities Cities Cities Over 10M 5M – 10M 2.5M – 5M F6 technological, industrial and medical As suggested in our aforementioned advances nurtured the growth of cities. global cities paper, many of these cities As urban economist Edwin Mills has are not well-suited to compete not only shown, urbanization brought in its with established global hubs as New York wake improved incomes, more employ- or London, but also with much smaller, ment opportunities, and created condi- more efficient and productive global cit- Megacity & Smaller City Growth: 2000–2010 World Population bytions Urban that Areamade businessSize: 2014 investments ies such as Singapore, the San Francisco Large Nations with Greater Smaller City Growth more lucrative. 7 Bay Area, Hong Kong, and even Seattle. How cities developover will 10M shape life This lack of global reach — and the 35% even more in the future. Over the next 35 extensive poverty often associated with 7.2years,% all world population5M – 10M growth will such developing world places — suggests 30% be in4.2 cities.% Today, there are nearly 4 bil- that perhaps the enthusiasm about the 1M – 5M lion dwellers, and by 2050 there will be emerging megacuities expressed in some 25% 11.3% 6.3 billion, according to United Nations accounts may be misplaced. A recent 20% (UN) projections. Rural populations National Geographic article, for example, 4.1% 500k –1M Rural 46.6% are expected to decline by 300 million.8 celebrated the entrepreneurial spirit of 15% Nearly 95%of the city growth is expected Kinshasa’s slum dwellers, which is under- to be outside11.1% the more developed world. standable, but underplayed the misera- Growth: 2000–2010 10% 100 – 500k This places enormous importance on ble conditions in which the majority of 5% megacities that are rising in these places. Kinshasa’s 9 million residents are forced

15.7% F7 Even with the substantial progress in to live. That city, which Belgian research- 0% Brazil Egypt India Mexico Turkey United States reducing world poverty, 9< 100k the concen- ers described as an example of “aborted tration of growth in lower income cities urban development,” suffers from high

F1 Megacities Cities presents formidable challenges for both crime, poor drinking water, and perva- 10M+ 100,000–1M policy makers and those who live there. sive informal housing. Similar conditions

Urban Population Areas in Millions • Megacities: 2014 Sources: See Demographia World Urban Areas (demographia.com/db-worldua.pdf) 40 37.56

35 Tokyo 29.96 30

25 24.13 Jakarta 22.99 22.71 22.65 21.59 20.66 20.30 20.27 20 Delhi 19.28 18.32 Seoul 17.67

Manila 17.23 15.89 15.25 15.21

Shanghai 14.91 14.90 Karachi 14.82 13.91 13.43

15 Beijing 13.19 New York 12.86 12.55 Sao Paulo 11.72 10.98 Mumbai Mexico City Cairo 10.24 10.15 Dhaka 10 Moscow Kolkata Bangkok Tehran Lagos Paris Istanbul Los Angeles Shenzhen Nagoya London Guangzhou-Foshan

5 Buenos Aires Osaka-Kobe-Kyoto Rio de Janeiro F2 0 JP ID IN KR PH CN PK US MX BR CN CN IN JP RU US EG TH IN BD AR IR TR CN NG BR FR JP GB

8 CHAPMAN UNIVERSITY • CENTER FOR DEMOGRAPHICS AND POLICY

Fastest Growing Megacities: 2000 – 2014 Probable Future Megacities: 2025 and 2030 Megacity, Other City & Rural Population Share of National Populations: 1950 – 2010 # GEO City 2014 Population in Millions ‘00–’10 growth By 2025 By 2030 GEO GEO 1. PK Karachi 21.59 80.5% City City 100% CN CN 2. CN Shenzhen 12.86 56.1% Chengdu Hangzhou 90%

3. NG Lagos 12.55 48.2% CN Dongguan CN Wuhan 80% 4. CN Beijing, BJ 19.28 47.6% CN Tianjin CO Bogota 70%

Urban Share Population of 20% 21.1% Projected Population Growth Projected Population 10% 1M – 5M 5%

0% F4 20.8% 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 7.6 % 100 – 500k 500k –1M 0% F9 MegaCities Cities Cities Over 10M 5M – 10M 2.5M – 5M F6 exist in many of Africa’s largest cities, are poised to move from the countryside. which are growing as fast as any in the United Nations projections indicate that world.10 Even in those megacities — for India’s urban population will increase example Mexico City, SaoPaulo Mum- nearly 250 million in 20 years, while bai, Kolkata — that have enjoyed strong China’s will increase 200 million, even growth in recent decades, the pace of Megacityas national& Smaller population City Growth: growth rates2000–2010 slow World Population by Urban Area Size: 2014 expansion seems to be slowing. This isLarge Nationsand even with stall Greater (in the Smaller case of CityChina). Growth12 particularly evident in the once much The evolution of megacities over 10M heralded BRICs countries — Brazil,35% Rus- sia, India, China and South Africa. Many 7.2% 5M – 10M of these countries over the past 2 30%years The modern megacity may have been 4.2% that have seen their growth rates slacken, largely an invention of the West, but it’s 1M – 5M often by as much as 50%, from a 25%decade increasingly to be found largely in the 11.3% earlier. This can be seen most notably20% East. The seven largest megacities are in places such as Istanbul, whose long located in Asia, based on a roundup of 4.1% 500k –1M Rural 46.6% property boom, both in residential15% and the latest population data. The largest commercial construction, appears to be megacity remains the Tokyo-Yokohama 11.1% winding down. Some analystsGrowth: 2000–2010 compare10% area, home to 38 million, followed by 100 – 500k the situation in some of these countries5% the Indonesian capital of Jakarta, Delhi, to that faced in southern Europe, and the Seoul, Manila and Shanghai (Figure 2).

15.7% F7 United States, leading up to the bursting0% With roughly 21 million inhabitants, Brazil Egypt India Mexico Turkey United States <100k of the property bubble. 11 the New York urban area was the world’s Yet, despite these problems, we largest urban agglomeration from early

F1 Megacities Cities should urban growth to continue to be in the 20th century10M+ until100,000–1M Tokyo sur- strong as hundreds of millions of people passed it in the 1950s, now ranks eighth.

Urban Population Areas in Millions • Megacities: 2014 Sources: See Demographia World Urban Areas (demographia.com/db-worldua.pdf) 40 37.56

35 Tokyo 29.96 30

25 24.13 Jakarta 22.99 22.71 22.65 21.59 20.66 20.30 20.27 20 Delhi 19.28 18.32 Seoul 17.67

Manila 17.23 15.89 15.25 15.21

Shanghai 14.91 14.90 Karachi 14.82 13.91 13.43

5 Buenos Aires Osaka-Kobe-Kyoto Rio de Janeiro F2 0 JP ID IN KR PH CN PK US MX BR CN CN IN JP RU US EG TH IN BD AR IR TR CN NG BR FR JP GB

THE PROBLEM WITH MEGACITIES 9

3. NG Lagos 12.55 48.2% CN Dongguan CN Wuhan 80% 4. CN Beijing, BJ 19.28 47.6% CN Tianjin CO Bogota 70%

Urban Share Population of 20% 21.1% Projected Population Growth Projected Population 10% 1M – 5M 5%

0% F4 20.8% 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 7.6 % 100 – 500k 500k –1M 0% F9 MegaCities Cities Cities Over 10M 5M – 10M 2.5M – 5M F6 Megacity & Smaller City Growth: 2000–2010 World Population by Urban Area Size: 2014 Large Nations with Greater Smaller City Growth

over 10M 35%

7.2% 5M – 10M 30% 4.2% 1M – 5M Megacity & Smaller City Growth: 2000–2010 25%Large Nations with Greater Smaller City Growth World Population by Urban Area11.3% Size: 2014 20% 4.1% over500k 10M –1M 35% Rural 46.6% 15% 7.2% 5M – 10M 30%

Growth: 2000–2010 10% 4.2% 11.1% 1001M –– 5M500k 25% 5% 11.3% 20% 15.7% 0% F7 4.1% 500k –1M Brazil Egypt India Mexico Turkey United States Rural 46.6% <100k 15%

F1 Megacities Cities Growth: 2000–2010 10% 11.1% 10M+ 100,000–1M 100 – 500k 5%

15.7% 0% F7 Brazil Egypt India Mexico Turkey United States <100k Urban Population Areas in Millions • Megacities: 2014 Sources: See Demographia World Urban Areas (demographia.com/db-worldua.pdf)

F1 Megacities Cities 10M+ 100,000–1M 40 37.56

35 Tokyo 29.96 30 Urban Population Areas in Millions • Megacities: 2014 Sources: See Demographia World Urban Areas (demographia.com/db-worldua.pdf)

4025 24.13 37.56 Jakarta 22.99 22.71 22.65 21.59 20.66 20.30 20.27 3520 Delhi 19.28 18.32 Tokyo Seoul 17.67

Manila 17.23 29.96 15.89 15.25 15.21

Shanghai 14.91 14.90 Karachi 14.82 30 13.91 13.43

15 Beijing 13.19 New York 12.86 12.55 Sao Paulo 11.72 10.98 Mumbai Mexico City 24.13 Cairo 10.24 10.15 Dhaka

25 Moscow 10 Jakarta 22.99 22.71 22.65 Kolkata Bangkok 21.59 Tehran Lagos Paris 20.66 Istanbul

20.30 20.27 Los Angeles Shenzhen Delhi 19.28

20 Nagoya London

18.32 Guangzhou-Foshan

5 Buenos Aires Seoul 17.67 Osaka-Kobe-Kyoto

Manila 17.23 15.89 15.25 15.21

Shanghai 14.91 14.90 Karachi 14.82 Rio de Janeiro 13.91 13.43 F2

15 Beijing 13.19 0 JP ID IN KR PH CN PK New York US MX BR CN CN IN JP RU US EG TH IN BD AR IR TR 12.86CN 12.55NG BR FR JP GB Sao Paulo 11.72 10.98 Mumbai Mexico City Cairo 10.24 10.15 Dhaka 10 Moscow Kolkata Bangkok Tehran Lagos Paris Istanbul Los Angeles Shenzhen Nagoya London Guangzhou-Foshan

5 Buenos Aires Osaka-Kobe-Kyoto

Fastest Growing Megacities: 2000 – 2014 in the developingProbable world. Karachi, Future Paki Megacities:- 2025 and 2030 Rio de Janeiro Megacity, Other City & Rural Population F2 0 JP ID IN KR PH CN PK US stan,MX has ledBR theCN growthCN charge,IN withJP a RU US EG TH IN BD AR IRShareTR of NationalCN NGPopulations:BR FR 1950JP – 2010GB # GEO City 2014 Population in Millions ‘00–’10 growth remarkable 80% expansionBy 2025 in its pop- By 2030 ulation from 2000GEO — 2010. The growth GEO 1. PK Karachi 21.59 80.5% City City 100% economies of China and India dominate 2. CN Shenzhen 12.86 56.1% CN Chengdu CN Hangzhou the rest of the list of most rapidly grow- 90% 3. NG Lagos 12.55 48.2% CN Dongguan CN Wuhan 80% Fastest Growing Megacities: 2000 – 2014 ing megacities.Probable Future Megacities: 2025 and 2030 Megacity, Other City & Rural Population 4. CN Beijing, BJ 19.28 47.6% China, not surprisingly,CN Tianjin has the most CO Bogota 70% Share of National Populations: 1950 – 2010 # 5.GEO TH City Bangkok 2014 Population 14.91 in Millions ‘00–’10 growth45.2% megacities of anyCD country, ByKinshasa 2025 four. The IN By Ahmedabad2030 60% second fastest-growing GEO City megacity over GEO City 1. 6.PK BD Karachi Dhaka 21.5914.82 80.5%45.2% IN Bangalore ZA Johannesburg-East Rand 100%50% the past decade, Shenzhen, was a small CN Chengdu CN Hangzhou 2. 7.CN CN Shenzhen Guangzhou-Foshan 12.86 18.32 56.1%43.0% fishing village notIN longChennai ago that became US Chicago 90%40% CN Dongguan CN Wuhan 30% 3. 8.NG CN Lagos Shanghai 12.55 22.65 48.2%40.1% a focus of Deng Xiaoping’sIN Hyderabad first wave of 80% 4. CN Beijing, BJ 19.28 47.6% modernization CN policies.PK TianjinLahore In 1979 it had CO Bogota 70%20% 9. IN Delhi 24.13 39.2% Populations National of Share 13 roughly 30,000 CD people; Kinshasa now it is a IN Ahmedabad 10% 5. 10. TH ID BangkokJakarta 14.91 29.96 45.2%34.6% PE Lima 60%

thriving metropolis of 13 million whose 0% F8 6. BD Dhaka 14.82 45.2% INVN BangaloreHo Chi Minh City ZA Johannesburg-East Rand 50% 11. T R Istanbul 13.19 25.3% population in the past decade grew 56%. 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 7. CN Guangzhou-Foshan 18.32 43.0% Its rise has beenIN so recentChennai and quick that US Chicago 40% F5 Sources: See Demographia World Urban Areas (demographia.com/db-worldua.pdf) F3 Sources: See Demographia World Urban Areas (demographia.com/db-worldua.pdf) 30% 8. CN Shanghai 22.65 40.1% the Asia Society IN hasHyderabad labeled it “a city Rural Urban: Not Megacity Megacities 14 without a history”.PK Lahore 20% 9. IN Delhi 24.13 39.2% Populations National of Share Older Chinese cities are also growing PE Lima 10% 10. ID Jakarta 29.96 34.6% rapidly. Shanghai, a cosmopolitan world The only other western urban areas 0% F8 11. T R Istanbul 13.19 25.3% city decades beforeVN Hothe Chi Communist Minh City among the 29 megacities now are Mos- 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 takeover of the country, expanded almost cow (15th), Los Angeles (16th), Istanbul F5 Sources: SeeUrban Demographia Population: World Urban Areas Latin (demographia.com/db-worldua.pdf) America F3 50% since 2000.Sources: The See Demographia ancient capital World Urban Areas (demographia.com/db-worldua.pdf) (23rd), Paris (27th), and London (29th). Rural Urban: Not Megacity Megacities South and Central America 1950 – 2050 Beijing and the southern commerce and Projected Population Growth Instead, the fastest-growing megacities industrial hub of GuangzhouWorld Urban grew Population nearly Megacities & Other Large Cities 2014 to 2025 over the past decade have been primarily 100% as rapidly. by Urban Area Size: 2014 90% India matches Japan with three over 10M megacities, but they are all growing 25% 80% Urban Population: Latin America much faster. The< 100kpopulation of Delhi, 70% 13.4% South and Central America 1950 – 2050 the world’s fourth-largest city, expand- 5M – 10M 20%Projected Population Growth 29.3% 60% ed 40% over the past decade; Mumbai, Megacities & Other Large Cities 2014 to 2025 World Urban Population 7.8 % 21.2% 24.7% 22.0% 100%50% almost 20%; andby Kolkata Urban roughly Area 10%,Size: 2014 a relatively low rate for a city in a devel- 15% 90%40% over 10M oping country. 25% 80%30% Other rapidly<100k growing megacities 10%

Urban Share Population of 20% 13.4% 21.1% 70% Growth Projected Population are scattered throughout the developing 5M – 10M 20% 10% 29.3% 1M – 5M 60% world. In Nigeria, Lagos saw its popu- 7.8 % 5% 21.2% 24.7% 22.0% 0% F4 lation swell by over 48% over the20.8 past% 50% 7.6 % 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 decade; the Thai capital of Bangkok and 15% 40% 100 – 500k 500k –1M 0% F9 Dhaka, Bangladesh, both grew some MegaCities Cities Cities 30% 45%. The world’s second-largest megac- 10% Over 10M 5M – 10M 2.5M – 5M F6

Urban Share Population of 20% 21.1% ity, Jakarta, expanded 34% and is now Growth Projected Population 1M – 5M 10% approaching 30 million (Figure 3). 5%

0% F4 As in the rest of the world,20.8 the% rise % 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 of megacities in Latin America paral- 7.6 100 – 500k 500k –1M 0% F9 lels rapid urbanization throughout the MegaCities Cities Cities Over 10M 5M – 10M 2.5M – 5M F6

10 CHAPMAN UNIVERSITY • CENTER FOR DEMOGRAPHICS AND POLICY Megacity & Smaller City Growth: 2000–2010 World Population by Urban Area Size: 2014 Large Nations with Greater Smaller City Growth

over 10M 35%

7.2% 5M – 10M 30% 4.2% 1M – 5M 25% 11.3% 20% 4.1% 500k –1M Rural 46.6% 15%

11.1% Growth: 2000–2010 10% 100 – 500k 5%

15.7% 0% F7 Brazil Egypt India Mexico Turkey United States <100k

F1 Megacities Cities 10M+ 100,000–1M

Urban Population Areas in Millions • Megacities: 2014 Sources: See Demographia World Urban Areas (demographia.com/db-worldua.pdf) 40 37.56

35 Tokyo 29.96 30 region. The UN Population Division Bangkok at US$23,000 — will continue 25 estimates24.13 that over 80% of the Latin to grow, at least until their populations Jakarta 22.99 22.71 22.65 American population now resides21.59 in ur- begin to see the results of decreasing 20.66 20.30 20.27

ban areasDelhi and that 87% will live in cities birthrates. 20 19.28 18.32 Seoul 17.67

by 2050. ArgentinaManila will reach the highest United Nations growth17.23 projections 15.89 15.25 15.21

Shanghai 14.91 14.90 Karachi 14.82 urbanization rate by 2050, at 95% . Put to 202518 suggest that the future list of 13.91 13.43

15 Beijing 13.19 New York 12.86 12.55 into perspective, this means that more megacitiesSao Paulo (Figure 5) will be dominated 11.72 10.98 Mumbai Mexico City than 19 of every 20 Argentines will live by such lower-income cities. In fact, 10 Cairo 10.24 10.15 Dhaka 10 Moscow Kolkata Bangkok

in cities. The urbanization rates of other more megacities are likely to emerge by Tehran Lagos Paris Istanbul Latin American countries will not fall 2025, including Lima (Peru) , Kinshasa Los Angeles Shenzhen Nagoya London Guangzhou-Foshan

5 Buenos Aires

far behind: Chile, Brazil, Venezuela and (Democratic Republic of the Congo),Osaka-Kobe-Kyoto

Uruguay will also surpass 90%, and Méx- Tianjin, Chengdu and Dongguan (China), Rio de Janeiro F2 0 JP IDico, Panama,IN KR Colombia,PH CN Ecuador,PK Perú,US MX ChennaiBR CN (India),CN BangaloreIN JP and HyderRU - US EG TH IN BD AR IR TR CN NG BR FR JP GB and Suriname will exhibit urbanization abad (India), Lahore (Pakistan) and Ho rates above 80% (Figure 4).15 Chi Minh City (Vietnam). If the project- In contrast, high-income countries in Europe and the United States, where Fastest Growing Megacities:population 2000 tracking – 2014 is more reliable, Probable Future Megacities: 2025 and 2030 Megacity, Other City & Rural Population grew relatively slowly. The only megac- Share of National Populations: 1950 – 2010 # GEO City 2014 Populationities in withMillions a purchasing ‘00–’10 growthpower adjusted By 2025 By 2030 GDP of over US$40,000 that registered 1. PK Karachi 21.59 80.5% GEO City GEO City population growth over 10% between 100% CN Chengdu CN Hangzhou 2. CN Shenzhen 12.862002 and 2012 were London56.1% and Moscow, 90% 3. NG Lagos 12.55which has expanded rapidly48.2% as the center CN Dongguan CN Wuhan 80% 4. CN Beijing, BJ 19.28of Russia’s resource-led47.6% boom. The popu- CN Tianjin CO Bogota 70% lation of Paris grew 8%; Los Angeles, 5. TH Bangkok 14.91 45.2% CD Kinshasa IN Ahmedabad 60% 6%; and New York, barely 3% over the IN Bangalore ZA Johannesburg-East Rand 50% 6. BD Dhaka 14.82past decade.16 45.2% 7. CN Guangzhou-Foshan 18.32 Japan, one of the world’s43.0% most ur- IN Chennai US Chicago 40% 30% 8. CN Shanghai 22.65banized major countries,40.1% has also logged IN Hyderabad slower growth. Tokyo, the great outlier in PK Lahore 20% 9. IN Delhi 24.13 39.2% Populations National of Share that country’s stagnant population pro- PE Lima 10% 10. ID Jakarta 29.96file, expanded 7%, Nagoya34.6% grew 6%, and 0% F8 VN Ho Chi Minh City 11. T R Istanbul 13.19Osaka-Kobe-Kyoto a weak25.3% 2%. The rapid 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 population depletion in the rest of the F5 Sources: See Demographia World Urban Areas (demographia.com/db-worldua.pdf)country and a lack of immigrantsF3 suggest Sources: See Demographia World Urban Areas (demographia.com/db-worldua.pdf) Rural Urban: Not Megacity Megacities that Japan’s great cities will grow even slower in the years ahead, as the country runs short on migrants from rural areas ed population growth rates are sustained and young people in general.17 through 2030, six additional megacities So what do the numbers tell us about could be added to the list, including Chi- Urban Population: Latinthe America future of megacities? For one thing, cago (United States), Bogota (Colombia), South and Central Americait’s 1950 clear – that 2050 the most rapid growth is Johannesburg-East Rand (South Africa), Projected Population Growth taking place in countries that still have Wuhan andWorld Hangzhou Urban (China), Population and Megacities & Other Large Cities 2014 to 2025 100% large rural hinterlands and relatively Ahmedabadby (India).Urban1 9Area (Figure Size: 5). 2014 young populations. These poor plac- But this rapid growth can not always 90% over 10M es — most with median incomes be- be taken for granted. Some megacities 25% 80% tween Dhaka at US$3,100 per capita and in the low<100k and middle-income world 70% 13.4% 5M – 10M 29.3% 20% 60% 21.2% 24.7% 22.0% THE PROBLEM WITH MEGACITIES 117.8 % 50% 15% 40% 30% 10%

Urban Share Population of 20% 21.1% Projected Population Growth Projected Population 10% 1M – 5M 5%

0% F4 20.8% 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 7.6 % 100 – 500k 500k –1M 0% F9 MegaCities Cities Cities Over 10M 5M – 10M 2.5M – 5M F6 ❰ Dhaka

already seem to have reached a point These trends, of course, may be of saturation. A generation ago, it was altered by any number of developments, widely predicted that Mexico City would including the possible threats to cities become the world’s largest city, with from wars, environmental challenges some 30 million people by the beginning or other large-scale disruptions. But of the 21st Century. Yet its growth has we can say, with some confidence, that slowed to a modest rate, and is current the world’s megacities will continue to population is 20 million. Lower Mexican become increasingly dominated by Asia birthrates and the development of other and Africa , reflecting the protean nature urban alternatives have made La Cap- of an urban growth pattern that contin- ital far less of a growth hub than once ues to de-emphasize slower-expanding imagined.20 Similar processes can be regions in the Americas, Japan and, of seen elsewhere in Latin America, where course, Europe. fertility rates have been dropping to levels closer to American and Northern Health and Quality of life European norms , but not yet those of the ultra-low Japan or Southern European Increasinglythe megacity is increas- countries. Over the past decade (2000- ingly a phenomena of countries that 2010) population growth was 15% in Sao are struggling to find their way in the Paulo, 12% in Mexico City, and 10% in modern world economy. Size used to be Rio de Janeiro. These are huge declines more correlated with economic and po- from their peak growth rates between litical success and dominance on a global 1965 and 1975 when Sao Paulo grew scale. Today, some of the largest cities are 75%, Mexico City 60%and Rio de Janeiro disproportionately poor, and seem likely 40%.21 These cities will continue to grow, to remain that way for the foreseeable but at reduced rates. future. Such problems are often ignored The best-positioned megacities in the or minimized by those who inhabit what coming decades are likely to be Chinese, commentator Rajiv Desai has described and (to a lesser extent) those in India. as “the VIP zone of cities”, where there China’s megacities all enjoy per capita is “reliable electric power, adequate water incomes above US$20,000 and the vast supply and any sanitation at all”. Outside scale of the country’s rural population the zone, Mr. Desai notes, even much suggests there is still room for growth. of the middle class have to “endure It will be perhaps another decade or so inhuman conditions” of congested, before the country’s low birthrate catches cratered roads, unreliable energy and up with it, and slows urban growth down undrinkable water. 22 to western or Japanese levels. These conditions reflect the inabil- India’s cities, notably Mumbai and ity of such megacities to handle rapid Delhi, are not as wealthy as China’s, but growth. Places like Dhaka, which gains are clearly getting richer, with Delhi as many as 400,000 new migrants from getting close to the US$10,000 per capita the villages annually, grows mainly in income level. With a somewhat high- its slum, whose residents move to the er birthrate than its Chinese or South megacity not for the bright lights, but to American counterparts and its continu- escape hopeless poverty, and even the ing rural to urban migration, Indian threat of starvation, in their village.23 cities can be expected to continue more Some argue that these migrants are rapidly at least for the next decade or so. better off than previous slum-dwellers

12 CHAPMAN UNIVERSITY • CENTER FOR DEMOGRAPHICS AND POLICY Los Angeles ❱

since they ride motorcycles and have Social Sciences, averages around 10,000 cell phones. Yet access to the wonders Rupees a month, double the average of transportation and “information worker’s monthly income. technology” is unlikely to compensate Similar, if somewhat less dire prob- for physical conditions that are demon- lems, can be seen in the megacities of the strably worse than those endured even by other great rising global power, Chi- Depression-era poor New Yorkers who at na. Dense urbanization, notes a recent least could drink water out of a tap and Chinese study, engenders more obesity, expect consistent electricity, something particularly among the young, who get not taken for granted by their modern less exercise, and spend more time desk- day counterparts in Manila or Mumbai.24 bound. Stroke and heart disease have More serious still, the slum-dwellers become leading causes of death.28 face a host of health challenges that recall Perhaps the best known result from the degradations of Dickensian London. intensified urbanization can be seen out- Residents of mega-cities face enormous side any window: pervasive air pollution. risk from epidemics and unsafely built This problem has become so severe that environments. Traffic, as anyone who it has led, even in authoritarian China, has spent time in these cities easily to growing grass-roots protests, many notices, poses particular threats to riders of them targeted at new industrial plants and pedestrian as alike. According to and other facilities located near cities researchers Tim and Alana Campbell, such as Shanghai, Dalian, and Hang- developing countries now experience a zhou. High degrees of pollution have led “neglected epidemic” of road-related in- at least some affluent urban Chinese to juries accounting for 85% of the world’s move back towards the countryside traffic fatalities.25 as well as to cleaner, less congested This can be seen by examining one regions in Australia, New Zealand and of the world’s most intriguing, important North America.29 and, in many ways, highly challenged The health situation is even worse megacities — Mumbai. One telling in poorer megacities. Nearly two-thirds indication of the difficulties the new- of the sewage in the megacity of Dhaka, comers face is the relatively low level of with 15 million people, is untreated.30 life expectancy in the city — roughly Overall, the developing world like those 57 years — which is nearly seven years of the early industrial era, pose a major below the national average.26 Gaps in health hazard to its residents. As Dr. life expectancy could be found in other Marc Reidl, a specialist in respiratory developing world megacities, including disease at UCLA, puts it, “megacity life Tehran, Cairo, and Buenos Aires.27 is an unprecedented insult to the im- Even with solid economic growth, mune system.”31 megacities have not have become better Denizens of these cities also live in places to live. In 1971, slum-dwellers an environment with very little exposure accounted for one in six Mumbaikers; to nature. This (exposure to nature) has now they constitute an absolute majority. both mental and physical health implica- Inflated real estate prices drive even fairly tions, studies have shown, with substan- decently employed people into slums. A tial benefits to city-dwellers. Sadly, many modest one-bedroom apartment in the developing cities have little such open Mumbai suburbs, notes R. N. Sharma space, which itself has both negative of the Mumbai-based Tata Institute of mental and physical health implications.32

THE PROBLEM WITH MEGACITIES 13 ❰ Beijing

The Problems of Gigantism ed with higher rates of coronary disease, as well as psychiatric disturbances, notes Not surprisingly, the massive growth a 2006 article evaluating the ecological in many emerging megacities — often ac- consequences of the land use changes in companied by rapid densification and the Asia.37 In cities such as Manila, roughly loss of cherished places — often occurs in one in three residents lives in shan- places that lack responsive structures to ty-towns, with high degrees of infectious deal with residents’ concerns. diseases, including pneumonia, measles In 2013, this issue came to a head and cholera, which far more rarely are in Istanbul, which is the most rapidly lethal in higher income countries.38 growing megacity in Europe. Faced with plans to bulldoze parts of Gezi Park near The Infrastructure Challenge Taksim Square that is one of that ancient city’s most beloved spots, major protests Arguably the biggest challenge facing erupted. This development was part of the emerging megacities lies in lagging Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s infrastructure. In the ultra-dense en- grandiose vision of the city as, “the vironment of developing country meg- financial center of the world,” and the acities, inadequate sanitation and poor park’s neighbors and supporters took hospitals exacerbate the health prob- to the streets. The protests were direct- lems.39 Traffic congestion is also worsen- ed against what has been described as ing. Nearly half of Mumbai commuters “authoritarian building”— the demolition spend at least one or two hours to get to of older, more-human-scaled neigh- work, far more than workers in smaller borhoods in favor of denser high-rise rivals such as Chennai, or Hyderabad. construction, massive malls, and other 50% of formal sector workers in Mumbai iconic projects.33 expressed the desire to move elsewhere, Other protests, usually more peace- in part to escape brutal train or car com- ful, but sparked by a similar revulsion mutes; only a third of workers in other against gigantism, have erupted in the cities expressed this sentiment.40 megacities of Brazil, Rio de Janeiro, and This suggests that megacities will São Paulo. There, local residents have need massive new infrastructure de- accused the Government of putting velopment. This extends beyond simply mega-projects ahead of basic services transportation. Many of these cities are such as public transport, education, and low-lying and prone to flooding. In- health care, particularly in the run-up cessant rain also causes drainage prob- to the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 lems in megacities such as Mumbai and Olympics.34 Kolkata. The threat of higher sea levels, Excessive concentration and ul- according to some, suggests even greater tra-rapid development also accentuates threats to these cities, as well as other the health problems discussed above. Air coast-hugging megacities such as Jakarta, pollution increases with density. 35 This Manila and Lagos. Some experts project is most evident in Asia, which accounts flood losses worldwide are projected to for half of the world’s most polluted grow from US$6 billion per year in 2005 cities. Among the ranks of megacities, to in 2050 to US$52 billion.41 Beijing and Shanghai rank among the These cities continue to add popu- most polluted, with Delhi now suffering lation, without the infrastructure that the worst air conditions of any major city paralleled the growth of earlier western in the world.36 High-density is associat- cities. Sao Paolo, notes urban historian

14 CHAPMAN UNIVERSITY • CENTER FOR DEMOGRAPHICS AND POLICY Manila ❱

Peter Hall, has three times the popula- South Asia; its share of Indian GDP is tion of London in its most dynamic peri- half that of China. 46 od during the early 20th Century, yet has As a result many of the megacities a far less well-developed urban transport — including the fastest growing, Dhaka — system. In megacities such as Mexico are essentially conurbations dominated City, much of the growth has been in by very low income people; roughly 70% less formal areas such as Nezahualcóyotl, of Dhaka households earn under US$170 where titles to property were irregular a month, and many of them far less. “The and basic services, such as water and megacity of the poor,” is how the urban sewer , are regularly not provided to all geographer Nazrul Islam describes Dha- households.42 ka, his home town.47 If they didn’t offer Under any circumstances, these more hope than the rural areas from burgeoning cities will require enormous which the urban migrants have come, investment. A recent McKinsey study these megacities would not be growing. suggests that developing countries will Although not generally as impov- account for the bulk of US$10 trillion erished, many other megacities that we more of capital investment required to might refer to as “middle income” are keep them running, even given slower also failing to create a better life for their overall growth in their populations.43 burgeoning populations. Places like Tehran and Istanbul can be described The City of Disappointment as “cities of disappointment”. In many cases, high housing prices and a lack of Historically, cities have served as space have already reduced the birth- engines of opportunity. Yet, as we rate to well-below the replacement level. demonstrated our global cities paper, Increasingly, many women are choosing many of the largest cities in the high-in- to remain single—heretofore something come world, such as New York, are also rare in these countries. 48 the most unequal.44 And Gotham’s In poorer countries — where great rival, London, according to one re- much of the most rapid urban growth is cent study, now may be the most unequal now taking place — the sense of disap- major city in the Western world. Overall, pointment may be even more profound.49 in both the developing and high-income Indeed, much of the population of world, notes a recent Euromonitor Inter- most developing country cities — such national study, (larger) “city size remains as Mexico City, Cairo, Jakarta, Manila, the key explanatory factor for income Lagos, Mumbai, and Kolkata (all meg- inequalities across the world’s urban acities) —continue to live in “informal” agglomerations”.45 housing that is often unhygienic, danger- These disparities are even more keen- ous, and subject to all kinds of disasters, ly felt in the developing world. Unlike natural or man-made. Moreover, many the burgeoning cities of the last century of these unmanageable megacities — — New York, London, Tokyo, Los Angeles most notably Karachi — offer ideal con- — the many new megacities lack a com- ditions for gang-led rule and unceasing pelling economic logic. Industrial growth ethnic conflict.50 paced much of the development of cities These pressures are further enhanced in the high-income world, followed by an by a lack of social mobility in many of explosion in business services. Industrial these cities. In Mexico City, only four out growth also drove the development of of 100 persons whose parents belonged to those in East Asia. In contrast, manufac- the 20%poorest sector of the population turing is far less prevalent in places like

THE PROBLEM WITH MEGACITIES 15 Megacity & Smaller City Growth: 2000–2010 World Population by Urban Area Size: 2014 Large Nations with Greater Smaller City Growth over 10M 35%

7.2% 5M – 10M 30% 4.2% 1M – 5M 25% 11.3% 20% 4.1% 500k –1M Rural 46.6% 15%

11.1% Growth: 2000–2010 10% 100 – 500k 5%

15.7% 0% F7 Brazil Egypt India Mexico Turkey United States <100k

F1 Megacities Cities 10M+ 100,000–1M

Urban Population Areas in Millions • Megacities: 2014 Sources: See Demographia World Urban Areas (demographia.com/db-worldua.pdf) 40 37.56

35 Tokyo 29.96 30

25 24.13 Jakarta 22.99 22.71 22.65 21.59 20.66 20.30 20.27 20 Delhi 19.28 18.32 Seoul 17.67

Manila 17.23 15.89 15.25 15.21

Shanghai 14.91 14.90 Karachi 14.82 13.91 13.43

5 Buenos Aires Osaka-Kobe-Kyoto Rio de Janeiro F2 0 JP ID IN KR PH CN PK US MX BR CN CN IN JP RU US EG TH IN BD AR IR TR CN NG BR FR JP GB

3. NG Lagos 12.55 48.2% CN Dongguan CN Wuhan 80% 4. CN Beijing, BJ 19.28 47.6% CN Tianjin CO Bogota 70%

5. TH Bangkok 14.91 45.2% CD Kinshasa have beenIN ableAhmedabad to join the most wealthy monthly total household60% “middle class 6. BD Dhaka 14.82 45.2% IN Bangalore 20%. ZAClose Johannesburg-Eastto 50%of those who Rand were income” in Mumbai50% at 40—50,000 born in the poorest level have not been Rupees; equivalent to less than $1000 US 7. CN Guangzhou-Foshan 18.32 43.0% IN Chennai US Chicago 40% able to ascend socio-economically, and dollars. Yet monthly salaries for teachers, 30% 8. CN Shanghai 22.65 40.1% IN Hyderabad close to 60%of those who were born in police officers and other mid-level jobs PK Lahore 20% 9. IN Delhi 24.13 39.2% the richest level have not descended.51 are often half that Populations National of Share amount. Not surpris- Similarly, the trajectory of Mumbai’s ingly, even these kinds10% of workers often 10. ID Jakarta 29.96 34.6% PE Lima

middle class remains uncertain. One find themselves — 0%given the city’s high F8 11. T R Istanbul 13.19 25.3% VN Ho Chi Minh City scholar, Jan Nijman, suggests that most housing prices — living1950 in slum 1960neigh- 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 gains in recent years have accrued to the borhoods, which are also known as jho- F5 Sources: See Demographia World Urban Areas (demographia.com/db-worldua.pdf) F3 Sources: See Demographia World Urban Areas (demographia.com/db-worldua.pdf) upper echelons of the middle class while pad-patti, jhuggi-jhopadi or busties.Rural “It’s Urban: Not Megacity Megacities “the ranks of the lower middle income the dream of an immigrant for a place classes have shrunk, and the ranks of in Mumbai… and ends up with a slum”, the poor have expanded rapidly”. Much she notes.54 of the growth in a perceived middle Is there a better alternative? Urban Population: Latin America Projected Population Growth South and Central America 1950 – 2050 Given these realities, perhaps we Megacities & Other Large Cities 2014 to 2025 World Urban Population might consider a different approach to 100% by Urban Area Size: 2014 urban growth. It is clear that urbaniza- 90% over 10M tion will continue, but in what form? 25% 80% Future urbanization does not need to be <100k a choice between rural hopelessness and 70% 13.4% 5M – 10M urban despair.The 20%rise of a mass of poor 29.3% 60% 7.8 % slum-dwellers — estimated as a high21.2% as 24.7% 22.0% 50% 1 billion — threatens the social stability 15% 40% not only of the countries they inhabit, 30% but the world, as they tend to generate high levels of both random10% violence

Urban Share Population of 20% 21.1% and more organized Growth Projected Population forms of thuggery, 10% 1M – 5M including terrorism. 5%55

0% F4 20.8% Planners often link density with 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 7.6 %

community, notes British social critic F9 100 – 500k 500k –1M 0% James Heartfield, but maintainingMegaCities that Cities Cities “physical proximity that is essentialOver to 10M 5M – 10M 2.5M – 5M F6 community is to confuse animal warmth with civilization”, It may well be that a class, Mr.Nijman argues, is based not on more dispersed approach to urban devel- income but on consumption driven by opment might make more sense. Many credit.52 As in Mexico, much of the new megacities suffer from the impact of employment is in the “informal sector”, what Lewis Mumford defined as “meg- that is, jobs that frequently lack any alopolitan elephantitis,” a total loss of real social benefits. The informal sec- human scale.56 tor — drivers, stall-owners, repair-peo- Fortunately, an alternative structure ple, household industries — account for of urbanization is beginning to emerge, much of the employment growth in both one that emphasises a diversity of cities Mumbai and Mexico City. 53 as opposed to concentration in gigan- Researcher Vatsala Pant estimates a tic agglomerations. An impressive new

16 CHAPMAN UNIVERSITY • CENTER FOR DEMOGRAPHICS AND POLICY study by the McKinsey Global Institute, Planners often link density with called “Mapping the Economic Power of Cities,” has found that, “contrary to community, notes British social critic common perception, megacities have James Heartfield, but maintaining that not been driving global growth for the past 15 years”. Many, the report con- “physical proximity that is essential to cludes, have not grown faster than their host economies. 57 community is to confuse animal warmth The growing disconnect between with civilization” people and planners is illustrated by the oft-ignored fact that around the world the great majority of growth continues and demographically, as growth shifts to to occur on the suburban and exurban 577 “fast growing middleweights,” many frontier, including the fringes of virtu- of them in China and India. ally all of the world’s megacities.58 This, We can see this already in the shift notes New York University (NYU) of industrial growth to smaller cities professor Shlomo Angel in his landmark in India. The national government has book A Planet of Cities, is true both in established an objective of an addition- developing and developed countries.59 As al 25 million jobs for the Indian auto the World Bank has noted: “Cities be- industry by 2016.62 It appears most will came more packed and more sprawling at go to other states, such as Gujarat (home the same time”. 60 to newly elected Prime Minister Modi), There needs to be a far-greater West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, enriching emphasis on smaller cities. After all, cities such as Chennai and Ahmedabad, worldwide megacities account for only but not Mumbai.63 13%of urban residents. More than twice as many people live in the middle-sized urban areas with from 1 million — 10 million population, while 28%live in Megacity & Smaller City Growth: 2000–2010 urban areas with populations between Large Nations with Greater Smaller City Growth World Population by Urban Area Size: 2014 100,000 — 1 million. Finally, 29%of urban residents live in urban areas with over 10M fewer than 100,000 residents (Figure 6).61 35% Thus, the population of our now 5M – 10M 30% 7.2% half-urban world does not typically live 4.2% 1M – 5M in the largest cities, but rather in smaller 25% 11.3% towns and cities with fewer than 500,000 residents. Nearly four times as many 20% 500k –1M people live in smaller cities that few 4.1% 15% Rural 46.6% are aware of, such as, Modesto (United

States), Gaoyou (China) , Kakinada (In- Growth: 2000–2010 11.1% 10% dia) , Dire Dawa (Ethiopia) and countless 100 – 500k others. (Figure 6) 5% In the future, the biggest urban trend 15.7% 0% F7 may be away from megacities to smaller, Brazil Egypt India Mexico Turkey United States <100k arguably more manageable, ones. In the coming decade, McKinsey predicts meg-

F1 Megacities Cities acities will underperform economically 10M+ 100,000–1M

THE PROBLEM WITH MEGACITIES 17

Urban Population Areas in Millions • Megacities: 2014 Sources: See Demographia World Urban Areas (demographia.com/db-worldua.pdf) 40 37.56

35 Tokyo 29.96 30

25 24.13 Jakarta 22.99 22.71 22.65 21.59 20.66 20.30 20.27 20 Delhi 19.28 18.32 Seoul 17.67

Manila 17.23 15.89 15.25 15.21

Shanghai 14.91 14.90 Karachi 14.82 13.91 13.43

5 Buenos Aires Osaka-Kobe-Kyoto Rio de Janeiro F2 0 JP ID IN KR PH CN PK US MX BR CN CN IN JP RU US EG TH IN BD AR IR TR CN NG BR FR JP GB

3. NG Lagos 12.55 48.2% CN Dongguan CN Wuhan 80% 4. CN Beijing, BJ 19.28 47.6% CN Tianjin CO Bogota 70%

Urban Share Population of 20% 21.1% Projected Population Growth Projected Population 10% 1M – 5M 5%

7.2% 5M – 10M 30% 4.2% 1M – 5M 25% 11.3% 20% 4.1% 500k –1M Rural 46.6% 15%

11.1% Growth: 2000–2010 10% 100 – 500k 5%

15.7% 0% F7 Brazil Egypt India Mexico Turkey United States <100k

F1 Megacities Cities 10M+ 100,000–1M

Urban Population Areas in Millions • Megacities: 2014 Sources: See Demographia World Urban Areas (demographia.com/db-worldua.pdf) 40 37.56

35 Tokyo 29.96 30

25 24.13 Jakarta 22.99 22.71 22.65 21.59 20.66 20.30 20.27 20 Delhi 19.28 18.32 Seoul 17.67

Manila 17.23 15.89 15.25 15.21

Shanghai 14.91 14.90 Karachi 14.82 13.91 13.43

5 Buenos Aires Osaka-Kobe-Kyoto Rio de Janeiro F2 0 JP ID IN KR PH CN PK US MX BR CN CN IN JP RU US EG TH IN BD AR IR TR CN NG BR FR JP GB

Fastest Growing Megacities: 2000 – 2014 Probable Future Megacities: 2025 and 2030 Megacity, Other City & Rural Population These realities lead some advocates Share of National Populations: 1950 – 2010 in developing countries to question the # GEO City 2014 Population in Millions ‘00–’10 growth By 2025 By 2030 logic of promoting megacities. The best GEO GEO 1. PK Karachi 21.59 80.5% City City 100% way to relieve the migration pressure on Mumbai, and other developing world 2. CN Shenzhen 12.86 56.1% CN Chengdu CN Hangzhou 90% cities, may be to improve the infrastruc- CN Dongguan CN Wuhan 3. NG Lagos 12.55 48.2% 80% ture and attractiveness of smaller cities, 4. CN Beijing, BJ 19.28 47.6% CN Tianjin CO Bogota 70% the suburbs of mega-cities, and even

5. TH Bangkok 14.91 45.2% CD Kinshasa IN Ahmedabad 60% the villages. Indeed in India, migration to large 6. BD Dhaka 14.82 45.2% IN Bangalore ZA Johannesburg-East Rand 50% cities is beginning to slow down, as more IN Chennai US Chicago 40% 7. CN Guangzhou-Foshan 18.32 43.0% potential migrants weigh the costs and 30% 8. CN Shanghai 22.65 40.1% IN Hyderabad opportunities of making such a move as PK Lahore 20% opposed to staying closer to home66 and 9. IN Delhi 24.13 39.2% Populations National of Share 10% in response to a national program to 10. ID Jakarta 29.96 34.6% PE Lima

0% F8 provide greater unskilled employment VN Ho Chi Minh City 11. T R Istanbul 13.19 25.3% 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 in rural areas.67 the recent (2011) census of India indicated that an unprecedent- F5 Sources: See Demographia World Urban Areas (demographia.com/db-worldua.pdf) F3 Sources: See Demographia World Urban Areas (demographia.com/db-worldua.pdf) Rural Urban: Not Megacity Megacities ed number of villages had transitioned from rural to urban (predominantly non-agricultural employment).68 This phenomenon has been called “rurban- There are indications of substantially ization” and was an important provision muted megacity growth in some nations. of the campaign of India’s new Prime Urban Population: Latin America In Brazil, India, Mexico, Turkey and Minister Narendra Modi, who imple- South and Central America 1950 – 2050 Projected Populationthe United Growth States, megacity population mented such programs as Chief Minister World Urban Population Megacities & Other Largegrowth Cities was less2014 than to that2025 of cities with of the state of Gujarat. Mr. Modi speaks 100% by Urban Area Size: 2014 from 1 million population to 10 mil- of human settlements with the “heart of 90% over 10M lion population between 2000 and 2010 a village” and developing “the facilities 25% (Figure 7).64 The difference was greatest of the city”.69 This phenomenon is also 80% <100k in the United States, where smaller city occurring in China, with perhaps the 70% 13.4% 5M – 10M growth was three times that of the two best example being Quangzhou in Fujian, 29.3% 20% 60% megacities (New York and Los Angeles). which is transitioning from a collection 7.8 % 21.2% 24.7% 22.0% 50% Indeed, since 1950, today’s megaci- of villages to an integrated urban area.70 15% 40% ties have tended to grow at a somewhat This has occurred at lower population lower rate than other, smaller cities densities and typically occurs when 30% 10% enjoying a growth rate 10% greater than growth is nearly exclusively driven by

Urban Share Population of 20% 21.1% Projected Population Growth Projected Population that of megacities. (Figure 8). migration from outside the urban area. 10% 1M – 5M 5% There are indications that smaller Ultimately, a shift towards disper-

0% F4 20.8% cities may continue to grow faster than sion — both within regions and between 7.6 % 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 megacities. Currently projected megacity them — could have a many positive 100 – 500k 500k –1M 0% F9 MegaCities growthCities rates are somewhatCities below those effects. It would allow people more living Over 10M for 5Msmaller – 10M city categories2.5M – 5M (Figure 9). In space, and if employment also was also F6 addition, growth may be slowing down dispersed, a quicker and less rigorous in the largest megacities of China. Re- commute, with related benefits gained cently released 2014 population estimates in time and energy conservation. The indicate reductions in the annual growth potential benefits of dispersed economic rates of both Shanghai and Beijing.65 activity can be seen, for example, in the

18 CHAPMAN UNIVERSITY • CENTER FOR DEMOGRAPHICS AND POLICY Megacity & Smaller City Growth: 2000–2010 World Population by Urban Area Size: 2014 Large Nations with Greater Smaller City Growth over 10M 35%

7.2% 5M – 10M 30% 4.2% 1M – 5M 25% 11.3% 20% 4.1% 500k –1M Rural 46.6% 15%

11.1% Growth: 2000–2010 10% 100 – 500k 5%

15.7% 0% F7 Brazil Egypt India Mexico Turkey United States <100k

F1 Megacities Cities 10M+ 100,000–1M

Urban Population Areas in Millions • Megacities: 2014 Sources: See Demographia World Urban Areas (demographia.com/db-worldua.pdf) 40 37.56

35 Tokyo 29.96 30

25 24.13 Jakarta 22.99 22.71 22.65 21.59 20.66 20.30 20.27 20 Delhi 19.28 18.32 Seoul 17.67

Manila 17.23 15.89 15.25 15.21

Shanghai 14.91 14.90 Karachi 14.82 13.91 13.43

5 Buenos Aires Osaka-Kobe-Kyoto Rio de Janeiro F2 0 JP ID IN KR PH CN PK US MX BR CN CN IN JP RU Netherlands, where a USnetworkEG of smallTH - IN haveBD twoAR to threeIR servants.”TR CN NG BR FR JP GB er cities across the country allows for a Mr. Datar suggests that developing dispersion of economic activities.71 countries need to better promote the One challenge for cities like Mum- growth of more manageable smaller bai — economically, socially and espe- cities and try bringing more economic Fastest Growing Megacities: 2000 – 2014 Probable Future Megacities: 2025cially environmentallyand 2030 — may well be opportunityMegacity, to the villages. Other One City does & Rural Population slower population growth. This would not have to Sharebe a Ghandian of National idealist Populations: to 1950 – 2010 # GEO City 2014 Population in Millions ‘00–’10 growth By 2025 Bylead 2030 to a shift to smaller cities where suggest that Ebenezer Howard’s “garden GEO GEO costs are lower and workers’ wages go city” concept — conceived as a response 1. PK Karachi 21.59 80.5% City City 100% further. “We are inevitably getting more to miserable conditions in early 20th 2. CN Shenzhen 12.86 56.1% CN Chengdu CN Hangzhou competition from elsewhere”, notes R. Century90% urban Britain — may be better CN Dongguan CN Wuhan 3. NG Lagos 12.55 48.2% Suresh Kumar, human resource manager guide 80%to future urban growth than the 4. CN Beijing, BJ 19.28 47.6% CN Tianjin CO Bogotaat Mumbai-based Associated Capsules. current70% trend of relentless concentration. “2000 Rupees a month means nothing in The “garden city” alternative could 5. TH Bangkok 14.91 45.2% CD Kinshasa IN Ahmedabad 60% Mumbai, but in Uttar Pradesh it really is help ameliorate the downsides of mass 6. BD Dhaka 14.82 45.2% IN Bangalore ZA Johannesburg-East Rand 50% meaningful”. urbanization in China as well , where 7. CN Guangzhou-Foshan 18.32 43.0% IN Chennai US ChicagoIn the years ahead, companies like the government40% is seeking to move 250 30% 8. CN Shanghai 22.65 40.1% IN Hyderabad Associated Capsules are likely to relocate million more people from the country- PK Lahore most operations to these cheaper areas. 72 side to20% urban areas over the next de- 9. IN Delhi 24.13 39.2% Populations National of Share Yet this process will also create a situa- cade “There’s this feeling that we have to PE Lima 10% 10. ID Jakarta 29.96 34.6% tion, as has occurred both in London and modernize, we have to urbanize and this 0% F8 VN Ho Chi Minh City 11. T R Istanbul 13.19 25.3% Mexico City, where de-industrialization is our national-development1950 1960 strategy,”1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 will leave many new migrants without said Gao Yu, China country director for F5 Sources: See Demographia World Urban Areas (demographia.com/db-worldua.pdf) F3 Sources: See Demographia World Urban Areas (demographia.com/db-worldua.pdf) decent prospects for upward mobility the Landesa Rural DevelopmentRural Urban: Institute, Not Megacity Megacities R.M. Sharma of the Tata Institute based in Seattle. Referring to the disas- of Social Sciences, notes that as manu- trous Maoist campaign to industrialize facturing and other industries move to overnight, he added, “it’s almost like smaller, more efficient and cost-effective another Great Leap Forward”. 73 cities, they remove many middle-income Urban Population: Latin America opportunities extending the gap be- South and Central America 1950 – 2050 tween the megacity’s rich and poor. “The Projected Population Growth World Urban Population boom that is happening is giving more Megacities & Other Large Cities 2014 to 2025 100% by Urban Area Size: 2014 to the wealthy. This is the ’shining India’ 90% people talk overabout,” 10M Sharma says. “But the other part of it is very shocking, all the 25% 80% <100k families where there is not even food se- 70% 13.4% curity. We5M must – 10M ask: The ‘Shining India’ 29.3% 20% 60% is for whom? “ 7.8 % 21.2% 24.7% 22.0% 50% Ashok R. Datar, chairman of the Mumbai Environmental Social Network 15% 40% and a long-time advisor to the Ambani 30% corporate group, suggests that Asian 10%

Urban Share Population of 20% 21.1% megacities should stop emulating the ear- Growth Projected Population 10% 1M – 5M ly 20th Century Western model of rapid, 5%

0% F4 20.8% dense urbanization. “We are copying the 7.6 % 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 Western experience in our own stupid 100 – 500k 500k –1M 0% F9 and silly way,” Mr. Datar says. “The poor MegaCities Cities Cities gain on the rich. For every tech geek, we Over 10M 5M – 10M 2.5M – 5M F6

THE PROBLEM WITH MEGACITIES 19 Seoul ❱

Rejecting gigantism for its own sake, Vietnamese countryside. “The city is “the garden city” promotes, where pos- already becoming unlivable,” Ms. Dang sible, suburban growth, particularly in insists. “More people, more high-rises land-rich countries. It also can provide a will not make it better. Maybe it’s time to guide to more human-scale approach to give up the stupid dream of the megac- dense urban development. The “garden ity”. Such voices are rarely heard in the conversation about urban problems. But The primary goal of a city should they embrace an urban future with radi- cal new thinking. Rather than foster an not be to make wealthy landlords urban form that demands heroic survival, perhaps we should focus on ways to cre- and construction companies ever ate cities that offer a more a healthful and richer, or politicians more powerful. even pleasant life for their citizens. This leads us to suggest we find new Nor should it be to elevate particu- ways to continue population de-con- lar urban designs or strategies centration policies through dispersing employment and better distribution of above the well-being of people. urban amenities throughout a country. In building or expanding new localities, city”, for example, is a primary focus we need to value and pay attention to in Singapore, Singaporean planners are human dignity, and not the latest urban embracing bold ideas for decentralizing design and planning fad. work, reducing commutes and restoring The primary goal of a city should nearby natural areas. not be to make wealthy landlords and These ideas may be most relevant construction companies ever richer, or to cities on the cusp of rapid growth, politicians more powerful. Nor should it such as Hanoi. As we walk through the be to elevate particular urban designs or high-density slums on the other side of strategies above the well-being of people. the dike that protects Hanoi from the Urbanism should not be defined by the Red River, Giang Dang, founder of the egos of planners, architects, politicians, nonprofit Action for the City, tells me or the über-rich, who can cherry-pick the that rapid growth is already degrading best locales in gigantic cities. Urbanism the quality of Hanoi’s urban life, affect- should be driven above all by what works ing everything from the food safety to best for the most people. water to traffic congestion. Houses that accommodated one family, she notes, now often have two or three. Expanding Hanoi’s current 3 million people — already at least three times its population in the 1980s — to say between 10 million and 15 million — may thrill urban land speculators but may not prove so good for city residents. Like Mr. Datar, Ms. Dang favors expanding conditions both smaller cities, and the

20 CHAPMAN UNIVERSITY • CENTER FOR DEMOGRAPHICS AND POLICY THE PROBLEM WITH MEGACITIES 21 1. Urban areas are the city in its physical form, and include only developed areas. This is in contrast to the city in its economic or functional form, which is called the metropolitan area (the labor market). Metropolitan areas include areas outside the urban area (largely rural areas) from which employees are drawn to jobs within the urban area. There are no international standards with respect to delineating metropolitan areas. Urban areas are called “built up urban areas” in the United Kingdom, “population centres” in Canada and unité urbaines in France.

2. Glaeser, Edward L . “Why Has Globalization Led to Bigger Cities?.” The New York Times. http://economix.blogs.nytimes. com/2009/05/19/why-has-globalization-led-to-bigger-cities/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=1& (accessed June 21, 2014).

3. Kenny, Charles . “In Praise of Slums: Why millions of people choose to live in urban squalor..” Foreign Policy. http://www. foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/08/13/in_praise_of_slums (accessed June 21, 2014).

4. United Nations Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. “Patterns of Urban and Rural Population Growth.” United Nations. http://esa.un.org/unup/Archive/wup-archives/studies/United%20Nations%20(1980)%20-%20Pat- terns%20of%20Urban%20and%20Rural%20Population%20Growth.pdf (accessed June 21, 2014). .

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6. See for example, http://eml.berkeley.edu/~webfac/obstfeld/wu.pdf, http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/macro_online/ ms/ch5/del28487_ch05.pdf.,and Gregory Clark (2007), A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World (Princeton Economic History of the Western World).

7. Mills, Edwin S. Urban economics. Glenview, Ill. Scott, Foresman, 1972.

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22 CHAPMAN UNIVERSITY • CENTER FOR DEMOGRAPHICS AND POLICY 15. “World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision.” United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, Population Estimates and Projections Section. http://esa.un.org/unup/ (accessed June 21, 2014). One caveat: Estimating population for comparably defined urban areas, particularly in the developing world, can be difficult. For example, there is considerable disagreement about the population of Lagos, where local officials claimed there were twice as many people in 2005 as were counted in the 2006 Nigerian census. Add the “missing” 8 or more million people and the population would be 22 million this year. The higher local count, however, has not been broadly accepted. The population of Karachi is also disputed, with some claiming a somewhat lower population than reported. Part of the problem is that the latest completely reported census in Pakistan was in 1998 with only spotty data released from the most recent count.

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21. Calculated from data at “World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision.” United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, Population Estimates and Projections Section. http://esa.un.org/unup/ (accessed June 21, 2014).

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24 CHAPMAN UNIVERSITY • CENTER FOR DEMOGRAPHICS AND POLICY 37. Shuqing, Zhao, Peng Changhui, Jiang Hong, Tian Dalun, Lei Xiangdong, and Zhou Xiaolu. 2006. “Land use change in Asia and the ecological consequences.” Ecological Research 21, no. 6: 890-896. Academic Search Premier, EBSCOhost (accessed June 20, 2014).

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65. Calculated from United Nations, US Census Bureau data and Demographia World Urban Areas data.

66. Based on end of 2013 municipal population estimates. Shanghai grew 3.5 percent annually from 2000 to 2010, but only 1.9 percent from 2010 to 2014. Beijing’s growth rates were 4.0 percent and 2.6 percent, respecitvely.

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68. The National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme is reputed to have reduced rural to urban migration by 28% (between 1999 and 2008). See Ravi, Shamika, Mudit Kapoor, and Rahul Ahluwalia. “The Impact of NREGS on Urbanization in India.” Dartmouth.edu. https://www.dartmouth.edu/~neudc2012/docs/paper_299.pdf (accessed June 21, 2014). .

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THE PROBLEM WITH MEGACITIES 27 Design Notes

The Problem with MEGACITIES and the graphics utilize the following:

To achieve visual harmony a modified version of the grid Jan Tschichold conceived for his book Typographie was employed.

MINION PRO Chapman’s serif family, is a digital typeface designed by Robert Slimbach in 1990 for Adobe Systems. The name comes from the traditional naming system for type sizes, in which minion is between RESEARCHnonpareil IN and brevier. ACTION It is inspired by late Renaissance-era type.RESEARCH IN ACTION

BERTHOLD AKIZEDENZ GROTESK is Chapman’s san serif family. It is a grotesque typeface originally released by the Berthold Type Foundry in 1896 underWILKINSON the name Accidenz-Grotesk. COLLEGE It was the first sans serif typeface to be widely used and influenced many laterof Humanities neo-grotesque and typefacesSocial Sciences after 1950.

Page 6: Shantytown – Rio image Copyright: miragik / 123RF Stock Photo

Page 21: Seoul buildings Copyright: vincentstthomas / 123RF Stock Photo

Front and Back Cover: Shanghai at night Copyright: wangsong / 123RF Stock Photo

Inside Front cover and Inside Back Cover: Copyright: miro3d / 123RF Stock Photo

Book exterior and interior design by Chapman University professor Eric Chimenti. His work has won a RESEARCHGold AdvertisingIN Award,ACTION been selected for inclusion into LogoLounge:RESEARCH Master Library, Volume 2, and been IN ACTION featured on visual.ly, the world’s largest community of infographics and data visualization. He has 17 years

WILKINSON COLLEGE of Humanities and Social Sciences

of experience in the communication design industry. To view a client list and see additional samples please visit www.behance.net/ericchimenti.

Professor Chimenti is also the founder and head of Chapman’s Ideation Lab that supports undergraduate and faculty research by providing creative visualization and presentation support, which can include creative writing, video, photography, data visualization, and design. Appropriatly qualified Chapman University undergraduate students staff the lab and help with the design and presentation of complex communication problems. RESEARCH IN ACTION RESEARCH IN ACTION

WILKINSON COLLEGE of Humanities and Social Sciences

28 CHAPMAN UNIVERSITY • CENTER FOR DEMOGRAPHICS AND POLICY RESEARCH IN ACTION RESEARCH IN ACTION

WILKINSON COLLEGE of Humanities and Social Sciences

Center for Demographics and Policy Center for Demographics and Policy RESEARCH IN ACTION RESEARCH IN ACTION

WILKINSON COLLEGE Center for Demographics and Policy of Humanities and Social Sciences

CHAPMAN CHAPMAN UNIVERSITY UNIVERSITY Center for Demographics and Policy Center for Demographics and Policy

CHAPMAN UNIVERSITY Center for Demographics and Policy