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2021 NFL Draft Scouting Report: QB Mac Jones, Alabama (Update)

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2021 NFL Draft Scouting Report: QB Mac Jones, Alabama (Update) 2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT FEBRUARY 18, 2021 2021 NFL Draft Scouting Report: QB Mac Jones, Alabama (Update) *Our QB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available. Updated Report 02-18-2021… I wanted to do a follow up to my original Mac Jones scouting report because since it was published, we got to see Jones at the Senior Bowl week…so, we have some new/key scouting info to be added. Not only did I want to update this for the Senior Bowl info but also because this is a very complicated scouting study. I’ve been scouting quarterbacks for ten+ years, and I would say (as would long time readers of my work) that I probably know/interpret/project QB prospects better than anyone walking the face of the earth. I don’t say that lightly or jokingly. I really believe it…and I need to ‘say it’ for context on this one. Why is this so complicated (and I’d say it is the most perplexing QB scouting I’ve ever done in 10+ years)? My original scouting report (in full, below) can best be summarized as – I do not believe that there is a realistic way anyone can confidently scout Mac Jones. One great season working on the most dominant college team of the year, with the most talent surrounding him (blocking, coaching, WRs, run game/passing catching RBs). Was his gaudy output and fancy tape a byproduct of Mac Jones’s greatness or is it all an illusion created by the ‘Alabama advantage’…or if the answer is ‘somewhere in-between’, then where in-between? Remember – people thought Tua Tagovailoa was the best QB prospect they’d ever seen for two+ years…and he sucks. One year after proclaiming him ‘great’ scouts/analysts are all making scenarios where Miami trades for an available QB somehow, someway. Everyone saw Tua as great…a year later, they have started to turn on him. Now, those same people LOVE Mac Jones. You have no reason to believe THOSE same people on anything, especially Alabama QB prospects. In my initial study, I basically threw my hands up…I do not know/I cannot tell what is real or fake with Mac Jones. It’s like I’m watching/reviewing the movie Inception – it could be whatever you wanted it to be. People saw different things within it. So, with that as my start point, I studied some more of Jones this past month…and am sharing my latest thoughts. College Football Metrics| 1 2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT FEBRUARY 18, 2021 I got to watch Jones practice at the Senior Bowl for two+ practices before he hurt his ankle and couldn’t go the rest of the week. Again, we have an ‘Inception’ moment…what is real and what is fake from the Senior Bowl for him? The first two days of practices are the easiest for all Senior Bowl QBs…1-on-1 throws, 7-on-7 drills. All the QBs look good during these events. They usually start to falter in day three/with more 11-on-11 drills but judging them on that is even tough because it’s chaotic plays and players they aren’t used to but also – and they can’t be hit, so it’s not ‘real’ action. Mac Jones was very good those first two ‘fake’ days. In 11-on-11s, Jones did start to falter…but just as it was about to get more challenging/more reps in practice…he got hurt and had to miss the biggest testing period (the 11-on-11 drills in practice the rest of day three, and ultimately the game). What I wanted to see Jones in the most, the toughest situations…’conveniently’ he was gone. Jones has led a charmed life – the Alabama surroundings, the favorable Senior Bowl work. It all looks great, but it feels like a Gus Fring (Breaking Bad) situation – the mild-mannered fast-food restaurant owner/manager is really a major/massive criminal. Jones seems so nice and perfect, but my gut wants to say an untested QB prospect flop could be headed our way/hiding in plain sight. On the other hand – he was the best QB at the Senior Bowl. He handles himself well. You can see moments where you’re like…is this a Joe Burrow, Tom Brady like mild-mannered, average-looking athlete QB who is really a Superhero in hiding? I saw nice glimpses of Jones at the Senior Bowl, but I also saw his house of cards start to crumble some in 11-on-11s…but he didn’t work enough of them for me to get a great feel. Still confused, I went back and re-rewatched/re-studied his two toughest games (best defenses, to me) of 2020 – Georgia and Ohio State (the most NFL DBs). I was hoping I might find clarity where I couldn’t get it before. No clear clarity on these game tapes either. I mean, it’s the same issue…glaring – he has so much time to throw and his WRs are so much faster than the DBs (in general) and he has an ace RB (Najee) to throw passes to as well. He ran/managed a well-oiled machine. Does the machine get the credit…or the manager of the machine? Jones could afford to take risks with the ball, at times, because his team was never worried about losing. He could also afford to just throw passes away/into the dirt and comeback to the next play…one play, one possession was not Jones against the world to save the day. Jones played with the confidence that his team was rarely losing nor an underdog, nor lacking firepower for the next play. Jones just had to keep the machine humming…and he did. Did ‘game managing’ a great offense hide his deficiencies? College Football Metrics| 2 2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT FEBRUARY 18, 2021 Did ‘game managing’ hold him back from showing how good he really is? I just think back to watching Joe Burrow – that was a guy carrying his team. When I watched Zach Wilson…that was a guy who WAS his offense…playing with 10 other guys who won’t sniff the NFL or be drafted highly/at all. Mac Jones just never strikes me as ‘the key’. I never see him in high pressure/tough situations. Joe Burrow faced one of the toughest schedules I’ve seen from a top QB prospect…and he slayed them all. Jones was the next great QB for a great team in a COVID era where many top players opted-out around the conference(s). I still don’t know how good Mac Jones is, but I’m open to the fact that he NFL starter-worthy…but I am also fearful, at the end of the day, that he might be another Alabama flop. In all my years doing this I’ve never been so perplexed and so unsure of a QB scouting grade/report – and I think that is the honest scouting of Mac Jones. I don’t know…and I am not going to force myself to know. There exists too much conflicting scouting data/inputs/notes here for me to really know. I will say, if forced to make a bet, the more I watch him the more I see Teddy Bridgewater (which my computer models brought to my attention, and I liked it) – a safe, game manager-ish, not bad kinda solid, good leader/teammate kind of quarterback for the NFL. And like Teddy, there will be fanfare coming in…and then in 2-3 seasons when he’s not Justin Herbert or Joe Burrow or Kyler Murray, people will turn on him and look for something more exciting. One other update section below…the ‘Comparison’ section (below). New comps to consider. You’ll see the update (and original) marked below. ------------------------- Original Report written 01-15-2021 Honestly, any report you read, pro or con, about Mac Jones’s prospects for the NFL is probably a giant bag of B*** S***. Anyone who express a ‘strong’ opinion on Jones, one way or the other, is barking at the moon. How can anyone know just how NFL ‘good’/’worthy’ Mac Jones after watching his 2020 season? Alabama beat the living crap out of everyone they played this year, aside from a minor tussle with Florida in the SEC Championship game…and even that wasn’t a ‘tussle’ for the offense, as Bama put up 600+ yards and 52 points. Alabama scored 50 or more points in four of its last 5 games. They scored 40 or more 11 times in 13 games on the season. Their lowest point total for the season was 31 (vs. Notre Dame). This Alabama offense was a juggernaut. College Football Metrics| 3 2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT FEBRUARY 18, 2021 But the real question for this report is – How much, if any of the offensive explosion was due to Mac Jones’ individual talent? I’ve watched a lot of top prospect QB tape in my life, especially in the past few years. I’ve seen quarterbacks carry or propel a program/offense with their elite skills…the most notable being Joe Burrow and LSU last year. That was a shining example of a quarterback’s talents on display achieving world domination. Watching Joe Burrow at work took your breath away.
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