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Economic Perspectives The Journal of The Journal of Economic Perspectives Economic Perspectives The Journal of Spring 2017, Volume 31, Number 2 Economic Perspectives Symposia Recent Ideas in Econometrics Susan Athey and Guido W. Imbens, “The State of Applied Econometrics: Causality and Policy Evaluation” Hamish Low and Costas Meghir, “The Use of Structural Models in Econometrics” James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson, “Twenty Years of Time Series Econometrics in Ten Pictures” Sendhil Mullainathan and Jann Spiess, “Machine Learning: An Applied Econometric Approach” James L. Powell, “Identication and Asymptotic Approximations: A journal of the Three Examples of Progress in Econometric Theory” American Economic Association Joshua D. Angrist and Jörn-Steffen Pischke, “Undergraduate Econometrics Instruction: Through Our Classes, Darkly” Spring 2017 Volume 31, Number 2 Spring 2017 Volume Are Measures of Economic Growth Biased? Martin Feldstein, “Underestimating the Real Growth of GDP, Personal Income, and Productivity” Chad Syverson, “Challenges to Mismeasurement Explanations for the US Productivity Slowdown” Erica L. Groshen, Brian C. Moyer, Ana M. Aizcorbe, Ralph Bradley, and David Friedman, “How Government Statistics Adjust for Potential Biases from Quality Change and New Goods in an Age of Digital Technologies: A View from the Trenches” Articles Hunt Allcott and Matthew Gentzkow, “Social Media and Fake News in the 2016 Election” Susan Athey and Andrzej Skrzypacz, “Yuliy Sannikov: Winner of the 2016 Clark Medal” Recommendations for Further Reading Spring 2017 The American Economic Association The Journal of Correspondence relating to advertising, busi- Founded in 1885 ness matters, permission to quote, or change Economic Perspectives of address should be sent to the AEA business EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE office: [email protected]. Street ad- Elected Officers and Members A journal of the American Economic Association dress: American Economic Association, 2014 Broadway, Suite 305, Nashville, TN 37203. President For membership, subscriptions, or compli- ALVIN E. ROTH, Stanford University Editor mentary JEP for your e-reader, go to the AEA President-elect website: http://www.aeaweb.org. Annual Enrico Moretti, University of California at Berkeley OLIVIER BLANCHARD, Peterson Institute for dues for regular membership are $20.00, $30.00, or $40.00, depending on income; for International Economics Coeditors an additional fee, you can receive this jour- Vice Presidents Gordon Hanson, University of California at San Diego nal, or any of the Association’s journals, in ALAN B. KRUEGER, Princeton University Mark Gertler, New York University print. Change of address notice must be re- VALERIE A. RAMEY, University of California at San Diego ceived at least six weeks prior to the publica- tion month. Members Associate Editors DAVID H. AUTOR, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Anat Admati, Stanford University Copyright © 2017 by the American Eco nomic RACHEL E. KRANTON, Duke University Association. Permission to make dig ital or JOHN Y. CAMPBELL, Harvard University Nicholas Bloom, Stanford University hard copies of part or all of this work for per- HILARY HOYNES, University of California at Berkeley Dora Costa, University of California at Los Angeles sonal or classroom use is granted without fee Amy Finkelstein, Massachusetts Institute of Technology provided that copies are not made or distrib- NICHOLAS BLOOM, Stanford University ERICA FIELD, Duke University Seema Jayachandran, Northwestern University uted for profit or direct commercial advan- tage and that copies show this notice on the Ex Officio Members Guido Lorenzoni, Northwestern University first page or initial screen of a display along RICHARD H. THALER, University of Chicago with the full citation, including the name of Emi Nakamura, Columbia University ROBERT J. SHILLER, Yale University Valerie Ramey, University of California at San Diego the author. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than AEA must be Appointed Members Scott Stern, Massachusetts Institute of Technology honored. Abstracting with credit is permit- Betsey Stevenson, University of Michigan ted. The author has the right to republish, Editor, The American Economic Review ESTHER DUFLO, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Ebonya Washington, Yale University post on servers, redistribute to lists, and use any component of this work in other works. Editor, The Journal of Economic Literature Catherine Wolfram, University of California For others to do so requires prior specific per- STEVEN N. DURLAUF, University of Wisconsin mission and/or a fee. Per missions may be re- Editor, The Journal of Economic Perspectives Managing Editor quested from the American Economic Asso- ciation, 2014 Broadway, Suite 305, Nashville, ENRICO MORETTI, University of California at Berkeley Timothy Taylor TN 37203; e-mail: [email protected]. Editor, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics Assistant Editor ALEXANDRE MAS, Princeton University Ann Norman Editor, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy MATTHEW D. SHAPIRO, University of Michigan Editor, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics Editorial offices: RICHARD ROGERSON, Princeton University Journal of Economic Perspectives Editor, American Economic Journal: Microeconomics American Economic Association Publications JOHANNES HÖRNER, Yale University 2403 Sidney St., #260 Secretary-Treasurer Pittsburgh, PA 15203 PETER L. ROUSSEAU, Vanderbilt University email: [email protected] OTHER OFFICERS Editor, Resources for Economists The Journal of Economic Perspectives gratefully acknowledges the support of Macalester College. WILLIAM GOFFE, Pennsylvania State University Registered in the US Patent and Trademark Office (®). Director of AEA Publication Services Copyright © 2017 by the American Economic Association; All Rights Reserved. JANE EMILY VOROS, Pittsburgh Composed by American Economic Association Publications, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA. Managing Director of EconLit Product Design and Content Printed by LSC Communications, Owensville, Missouri, 65066, USA. STEVEN L. HUSTED, University of Pittsburgh No responsibility for the views expressed by the authors in this journal is assumed by the editors or by the American Economic Association. Counsel THE JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES (ISSN 0895-3309), Spring 2017, Vol. 31, No. 2. The JEP TERRY CALVANI, Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer LLP is published quarterly (February, May, August, November) by the American Economic Association, 2014 Washington, DC Broadway, Suite 305, Nashville, TN 37203-2418. Annual dues for regular membership are $20.00, $30.00, or $40.00 depending on income; for an additional $15.00, you can receive this journal in print. E-reader ADMINISTRATORS versions are free. For details and further information on the AEA go to https://www.aeaweb.org/. Director of Finance and Administration Periodicals postage paid at Nashville, TN, and at additional mailing offices. BARBARA H. FISER POSTMASTER: Send address changes to the Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2014 Broadway, Suite 305, Convention Manager Nashville, TN 37203. Printed in the U.S.A. GWYN LOFTIS The Journal of Economic Perspectives Contents Volume 31 • Number 2 • Spring 2017 Symposia Recent Ideas in Econometrics Susan Athey and Guido W. Imbens, “The State of Applied Econometrics: Causality and Policy Evaluation” ................................3 Hamish Low and Costas Meghir, “The Use of Structural Models in Econometrics” ..............................................33 James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson, “Twenty Years of Time Series Econometrics in Ten Pictures” .............................................59 Sendhil Mullainathan and Jann Spiess, “Machine Learning: An Applied Econometric Approach”. .87 James L. Powell, “Identification and Asymptotic Approximations: Three Examples of Progress in Econometric Theory” .................. 107 Joshua D. Angrist and Jörn-Steffen Pischke, “Undergraduate Econometrics Instruction: Through Our Classes, Darkly” ..................... 125 Are Measures of Economic Growth Biased? Martin Feldstein, “Underestimating the Real Growth of GDP, Personal Income, and Productivity” ........................................... 145 Chad Syverson, “Challenges to Mismeasurement Explanations for the US Productivity Slowdown” ...................................... 165 Erica L. Groshen, Brian C. Moyer, Ana M. Aizcorbe, Ralph Bradley, and David M. Friedman, “How Government Statistics Adjust for Potential Biases from Quality Change and New Goods in an Age of Digital Technologies: A View from the Trenches” ....................... 187 Articles Hunt Allcott and Matthew Gentzkow, “Social Media and Fake News in the 2016 Election” ............................................. 211 Susan Athey and Andrzej Skrzypacz, “Yuliy Sannikov: Winner of the 2016 Clark Medal” .............................................. 237 Features Timothy Taylor, “Recommendations for Further Reading” ................... 257 Statement of Purpose The Journal of Economic Perspectives attempts to fill a gap between the general interest press and most other academic economics journals. The journal aims to publish articles that will serve several goals: to synthesize and integrate lessons learned from active lines of economic research; to provide economic analysis of public policy issues; to encourage cross-fertilization of ideas among the fields of economics; to offer readers an accessible source for state-of-the-art economic thinking; to suggest directions for future research; to provide
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