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The London School of Economics and Political Science Three Frameworks for Commodity-Producer Decision-Making Under Uncertainty Karl T. Muth A thesis submitted to the Department of International Development of the London School of Economics and Political Science for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy September 2015 Declaration I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the MPhil/PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others (in which case the extent of any work carried out jointly by me and any other person is clearly identified in it). The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgment is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without my prior written consent. I warrant that this authorization does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. I declare that my thesis, inclusive of its various sections, consists of 61,953 words. Statement of Conjoint Work Portions of fieldwork and surveys occurred in collaboration with my friend and colleague Jennifer F. Helgeson of the Grantham Institute of the London School of Economics and Political Science. While we designed different questions due to our substantially different academic interests, these questions were administered as part of the same survey sequence chiefly to save time and cost. We then performed entirely separate analyses of the resulting data. To avoid any conflict or potential conflict, I have not, as of the submission of this thesis, read or discussed her approach or her findings or her thesis. Jennifer F. Helgeson and I each contributed 50% of the work in the survey’s design, though 100% of the analysis of the data gathered by the survey appearing here is my own work. To be clear, there is no overlap in our analysis and the surveys were only administered together for efficiency and financial reasons. - 2 - The plan drawings herein were created by Tiziano Mion, an excellent draftsman, based upon my drawings, observations, and research. I contributed all of the information needed to create them, including rough drafts and reference photography, but lacked the architectural drafting skills needed to create the final product. These drawings are the only example of something created in collaboration with another person that appears in the thesis; note these drawings appear for their descriptive, not analytical, value. I would attribute 100% of the content of the drawings to myself, but 100% of their aesthetic value to Mr. Mion. Statement of Use of Third Party for Editorial Help (if applicable) Small sections of the text were copy edited for conventions of language, spelling, and grammar by my mother, Rita D. Tan. Some of the foreign-language phrases used in the text were confirmed for spelling or grammar with local native speakers or with Dr. Holly E. Porter or both. - 3 - Acknowledgements Thanks to my parents, Edmund H. Muth and Rita D. Tan, for their support, perseverance, and persistent faith that the road less travelled might lead somewhere worthwhile; their travels all over the world with their only son – my childhood – constitute the fieldwork that made this work possible. Thanks and apologies to my grandmother, Hazel, for teaching me hundreds of things I’d fail to appreciate until after her passing. Thanks to my uncle, David, for always believing in my academic potential, even from an early age. Thanks to my mother’s parents, whose stories piqued my interest in how and why countries develop and why some places are poor while others are wealthy. Thanks to my father’s father, John, for reminding, through his own innovations, that there are still things to be invented and ideas to be had. Thanks to Robert H. Wade and Robert H. Gertner, who have shown great patience and given great advice over these past years. Thanks to Gary S. Becker, Marianne Bertrand, Christina Hachikian, Kevin M. Murphy, Emily Oster, Jim Schrager, and Ted Snyder at the University of Chicago who encouraged me before and during the Ph.D. Thanks to The Honourable James A. Shapiro, a recently-retired judge in Chicago, for encouraging my further studies and setting an example, year after year, with his own scholarship and friendship. Thanks to the people of Gulu, Uganda and particularly those of Ariaga. Thanks to Ben and Holly Porter and Zach and Casey Hoins for welcoming me into your worlds as a tourist, then as a friend, and finally as a neighbour. Thanks to countless others who made my time in Gulu more enjoyable, more like home, and more like the Africa I’d always imagined. Thanks to the hospitality of Sankofa Café, where early drafts of this document were written over cow pea samosas and passion fruit juice; Brian, you deserve all the best. - 4 - Thanks to my housekeeper, Mary-Grace, and my gardener, Jimmy. Thanks to my guards, who kept me safe with a smile on patrol and an 870 Express shotgun at the ready: Okumu Robert, Oloya Christopher, Oryem Richard, Abubakar Kasim, and Oniyat Isaac. Best wishes to each and all of you and your families. Thanks to Willy “OK” Okello and thousands of other farmers who shared their time, space, and stories. Thanks to Tristan Burger, who visited markets and farms in Oyam with me as my research assistant. Patient, kind, and resilient, she is a joy to work with and a wonderful friend. Thanks to Tom Kirk and Sarah Carson for their hospitality during my time in London, and to Brooke A. Skinner for the same in Chicago. I’m glad you were able to visit Uganda and experience a tiny sliver of East African life and I hope that I was able to provide a shadow of the kindnesses you’ve shown me. Thanks to Michael Dunham Moore, Brooke A. Skinner, and Benjamin Beauregard Dee Winston, II – you’re the best trio of best friends anybody could ask for. Thanks to Rachel C. Furnari; you’ll never know how important that discussion in Shoreditch was to my finishing this document. Thanks to Jennifer F. Helgeson for agreeing to have coffee with a stranger – I’m thankful for our friendship and for what we’ve accomplished together. Thanks to Elizabeth M. Schutte, who has always believed in my scholarly potential. Thanks to Alaska Consumer Oil & Gas, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, FedEx, Google, Grameen Foundation, Harvard University, Microsoft, Northwestern University, Oxford University, Skype, Toyota, the University of Chicago, and the Muth Family Charitable Trust for the support that made this research possible. Thanks to the library staff at the London School of Economics and Political Science who have been ever-patient with my research. They have, on several occasions, helped me - 5 - locate materials that were helpful in positioning this research within the broader literature. Thanks also to research librarians at the Joseph Regenstein Library and at the British Library who helped me navigate several difficult research problems. A special thanks to Skype, which provided Skype credits toward the hundreds of international calls that needed to be placed from Uganda to places all over the world. Without the existence of your service and the generosity of your team, this research would have been substantially more expensive to undertake. Thanks also for providing two webcams to help with communication between Kampala and outlying areas on non- webcam-equipped computers; this was very helpful. More special thanks to Google, which not only provided the hundreds of smart phones crucial to this research, but provided excellent support for that hardware once it was in the field. This type of project, with its remote location and difficult logistics, was made a bit easier having a handset partner that understood that phones get dropped in the mud, lost from rucksack pockets on moving dirt bikes, and simply broken. Leaving the best for last, thanks to Hannah Meyer, who never leaves my thoughts. She guides and inspires me every day – when we are apart, from the front row of my imagination. This work is dedicated to her. - 6 - Contractually Required Disclosure “Data gathered on behalf of Grameen Foundation” Under the terms of my work for Grameen Foundation in Africa, which appear as an Appendix to this thesis, I am required to include the phrase “data gathered on behalf of Grameen Foundation” in any publications that utilise or analyse this dataset. Though it is not contractually required, I include the relevant parts of Sections 5.1 and 6.2 of the applicable contract here, and append the entire Agreement, executed 4 January 2011 as Appendix B. 5.1, in relevant part: Volunteer shall not publish any data gathered while rendering the Services without the notation, “Data gathered on behalf of Grameen Foundation” or a similar notation. Volunteer shall send two (2) bound proof copies of the Ph.D. thesis to Camilla Nestor or Grameen Foundation for review and comment at least forty-five (45) days prior to the viva (defence). 6.2, in relevant part: Without the express written consent of GFUSA, Volunteer shall not incorporate into any Work Product any third party material or third party intellectual property. Notwithstanding the foregoing, GFUSA grants Volunteer a limited license to use the Work Product for any academic, non-commercial purpose, including dissertations and other academic work. I hereby certify that I have met my contractual obligations to Grameen Foundation as to use of this dataset for my Ph.D. research and that two bound proof copies were provided to Grameen Foundation for comment forty-five days or more in advance of the viva.

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