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If Winter Comes, Can Spring Be Far Behind?

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If Winter Comes, Can Spring Be Far Behind? #2 (84) February 2015 New election law: Capital flight Why Russia a key to Ukraine's democracy from Ukraine in 2014 is against Europe If winter comes, can spring be far behind? WWW.UKRAINIANWEEK.COM Featuring selected content from The Economist FOR FREE DISTRIBUTION |CONTENTS FOCUS MEP Jacek Saryusz-Wolski on political Independent Ukraine Speaks: divisions in the EU and arguments A year after Maidan the EU expects from Kyiv to continue support for Ukraine 4 30 From Cold War to Hot Carnegie Europe’s Ulrich Speck War: Russia’s aggression in on the role of Germany in preserving Ukraine is part of a broader, the unity of the European Unity and more dangerous, 32 confrontation with the West SOCIETY 8 Trouble at the Academy: The maladies SECURITY afflicting Ukraine’s National Academy of Russian Military Bases around Sciences and its chances of recovery NATO borders and in Central Asia 34 12 Deputy Education Minister Maksym Strikha “Armed Forces of Novorossiya”: on the current status and potential of Who is fighting against Ukraine? Ukrainian science and long overdue reforms 14 at the National Academy of Sciences POLITICS 36 HISTORY A Key to Transforming Ukraine: International lawyer Volodymyr Why Is Russia Against Europe? Vasylenko on why a new election And why it is so persistently law is urgently needed aggressing on Ukraine 16 Parliament Member Oleksandr Chernenko: 39 “New electoral law should be adopted Nuremberg Trial vs. Truth no later than in May” Commission: Why South African reconciliation experience is more acceptable 18 than the German experience of ECONOMICS punishing war criminals To Sell Boryspil Airport: Old privatization schemes 44 in the post-Yanukovych era Leonidas Donskis on why Putinism will fail sooner than the Russian 20 leader expects Tracing the Fleeing Capital: How many billions of dollars Ukraine lost in 2014 46 CULTURE & ARTS 22 Philippe de Lara on composer NEIGHBOURS Valentyn Sylvestrov and Akhmed Zakayev, President of the his music of freedom Chechen Republic of Ichkeria in exile, on the Chechens in the Donbas, 48 clashes in Grozny in December, and Good old jazz, the illusory friendship of Vladimir Argentinean Putin and Ramzan Kadyrov tango and shadow 25 theatre: When the Rules Are Broken: François The Ukrainian Heisbourg and Judy Dempsey share Week offers their comments and expectations a choice of venues to attend after the Munich Security Conference this month 28 50 E-mail [email protected] www.ukrainianweek.com Tel. (044) 351-13-87 The Ukrainian Week № 2 (84) February 2015 Editors address 37 Mashynobudivna str., Kyiv, 03067, Ukraine Founder ECEM Media GmbH. Publisher ECEM Media GmbH Print run 15 000. Free distribution Address Austria, Am Gestade,1, 1010 Vienna Our partner State registration certificate КВ № 19823-9623ПР 19.03.2013 Chief Editor Alla Lazareva Editors Anna Korbut, Natalia Romaneс, Shaun Williams № 2 (84) FEBRUARY 2015|THE UKRAINIAN WEEK|3 FOCUS|REVOLUTION OF DIGNITY Independent Ukraine Speaks Author: Here, it’s not portraits of they were always from outside, in Dmytro Krapyvenko Heaven’s Hundred that look down the interests of outsiders. Even a at us from a height, but the mind unfettered by conspiracy he history of independent burned-out shell of the Union theories at some point begins to Ukraine is marked by its Building, only partly masked by interpret events in our country as Maidans. The quarter-cen- patriotic banners. Near the Post Ttury from the Granite Revo- Office is Kilometer 0, where you The Maidan stood lution of 1990 started by students, can easily find the distance to to the latest events—the “Revolu- oblast centers and world capitals in opposition tion of Dignity” is not yet over, af- alike. This is the real Ukrainian ter all—, can be broken into peri- crossroad, from which we still to A paternalistic model ods of great social changes and lo- cannot see what kind of Maidan that had taken shape cal protests, the epicenter of which this will ultimately be—of Sorrow, has always been the main square of Entertainment, of Indepen- over centuries and was of the Capital. Kyiv’s one-time Oc- dence, or of Victory—not in the enshrined, not in law but tober Revolution Square with its distant future, but in the one that Cyclops-like workers and peasants we are all waiting for today. in people’S mentality and Lenins, all on a provincial Ukraine’s historic fate has scale as befits a mere republic, de- been to be a testing place. What the consequence of outside influ- signed for workers’ rallies and geopolitical theory has not played ence, the conflict of imperial am- military parades, has been trans- out on its terrain? What social ex- bitions, and so on. The minute formed, with its sentimental post- periments have not been carried some serious social disturbance soviet clusters of graceless monu- out here? What types of internal starts in Ukraine, the armchair ments and shopping malls, into a government were not implanted generals—this military unit that place of grief. in it? And whatever they were, remains the biggest combat unit 4|THE UKRAINIAN WEEK|№ 2 (84) FEBRUARY 2015 REVOLUTION OF DIGNITY|FOCUS of all, albeit a virtual one—get out era that gave birth to the phrase position to a paternalistic model the popcorn and begin the hunt “They kind-of pay us and we kind- that had taken shape over centu- for historical analogies: “Oh, look of work” - as its ideal. The cur- ries and was enshrined, not in law at the Velvet Revolutions in East- rency of bribery was deficit goods but in people’s mentality. ern Europe, if only we had as under Brezhnev; later it evolved much humor as they did, or what into free concerts for students and WHO’S THE BOSS HERE? about Poland’s Solidarity move- bags of produce for pensioners. The Maidan could never have suc- ment with its rally of dwarves The government was not particu- ceeded if it had been a leader+follo- who trolled the police? How larly generous, but it did promise ­­­­wers phenomenon: the regime hi- about we do something like that an unending supply of “goodies,” erarchy would have beheaded that and we’ll succeed? No, it’s more thereby earning its political divi- leader and destroyed the move- like the Arab Spring, because ev- dends. ment at the very beginning. Even in erything was coordinated using The cult of stability is evident 2004, when the insurrection had a social networks.” The more origi- in most post-soviet countries. In clearly designated leader, all those nal among them even began to Russia, Azerbaijan and Kazakh- who stood up understood that this extrapolate on Ukrainian ground stan, petrodollars keep it going; was not a battle for a new tsar, but the ideas of Mahatma Gandhi, in Belarus, the overvaluation of against the old system. Today, hos- calling for non-violent resistance. state assets; in Tajikistan and Ar- tile propaganda tries to appeal to But it was all no good. The menia the hope, “as long as Ukrainians with questions like: Maidan will enter world history there’s no war.” But the main rea- “You stood up on the Maidan and books as different from the velvet son is the critical mass of voters now you’re fighting for a president and colored revolutions, with its who are prepared to accept such who is an oligarch? What’s the own name, without translation. rules of play. This is where prob- point?” This kind of question is Only the new meaning will re- lems arise in Ukraine: too many natural, coming from a country main, its Turkic roots forgotten. people want to take care of them- where an opera called “Living for selves and are not prepared to the Tsar” is a classic and even the AGAINST THE OFFICIAL settle for government handouts. cossack otaman needed to declare MYTHOS And this is the group of people himself “Emperor Peter III” in or- The enemies of the Maidan like to prepared to rebel against (post) der to raise a successful insurrec- talk about economic statistics, soviet stability. tion. In a Ukrainian context, this saying that there was no reason to Economic slogans were never sounds completely ridiculous. rebel, when the indicators for a strong point of the Maidan. It The role of Big Politics in pop- 1990, 2004 and 2013 were way was not a hungry uprising and did ular rebellions in recent years is better than the first post-revolu- not arise for the purpose of redis- not worth overestimating. The tionary years. Of course, they’re tributing wealth. The oligarchs Granite Revolution of 1990 was not really talking economics. The whose money likes peace and launched by students who joined OTO mind of an unfree person whose quiet were never allies of the F sacred cow is stability does not ac- Maidan but rather supported the cept change. There’s probably no regime and, when there was vic- The Maidan could never more compromised phrase than tory, they built bridges to the new have succeeded if it had FOTO: UKRAINIAN FOTO: that among Ukrainian politicians. government. The shadowy nature What it really means is, “You stay of the oligarchs has saved them so been A leader+followers loyal to us and we’ll give you some far. The Maidan’s economic pro- phenomenon: the regime nice little handouts.” gram remained unwritten, but Of course, loyalty has different came down to a very simple for- hierarchy would have faces. In the 1990s, the govern- mula: “The heck with your stabil- beheaded that leader and ment demanded at least a declara- ity, because we can take care of tive faithfulness to “Lenin’s idea,” ourselves.
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