Hamilton Rapid Transit Benefits Report Final November 2020 Disclaimer • The City of Hamilton was not consulted through the 2020 Hamilton Rapid Transit study and the compiling of this Benefits Report. • The document and study relied on available information pertaining to the previous Hamilton LRT project, including but not limited to the Reference Concept Design completed for the project, and the Class D Cost Estimate completed in October 2019 by Turner and Townsend. • The estimates for the options identified within this Benefits Report were developed by IBI Group Inc. based on the preliminary information available at the time of this report. • The study was undertaken by Metrolinx with support and input from Infrastructure Ontario and the Ontario Ministry of Transportation. • This Benefits Report incorporates the latest developments in Metrolinx’s business case methodology since the previous Benefits Case analysis in 2010. Therefore, the results of this analysis are not directly comparable against the previous results. • Further design, refinement and optimization of the options through an Initial Business Case (IBC) is recommended before proceeding with an investment option. Hamilton Rapid Transit Benefits Report Final November 2020 Contents Executive Summary 1 Scope 1 Method of Analysis 2 Preliminary Findings 2 Strategic Case 2 Economic Case 2 Financial Case 3 Delivarbility and Operations Case 3 Summary 3 Introduction 6 Background 7 Benefits Report Overview 11 Problem Statement 13 Case for Change 14 Definition of Problem or Opportunity 14 Key Drivers 14 Strategic Outcomes 16 Alignment with Broader Policy 18 Urban Hamilton Official Plan (2013) 18 City of Hamilton 10 Year (2015-2024) Local Transit Strategy (2015) 18 2016-2025 Strategic Plan (2016) 19 City of Hamilton Transportation Master Plan (2018) 19 Metrolinx 2041 Regional Transportation Plan (2018) 19 Places to Grow: Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (2019) 19 i Investment Options 21 Introduction 22 Option Development 22 Study Area 23 Option Definition 25 Business As Usual 25 Option 1 LRT: McMaster to Dundurn 26 Option 2 B-Line BRT 28 Option 3 B-Line BRT and A-Line Transit Priority 30 BRT Service Plan 33 Assumptions for Analysis and Travel Demand Modelling 33 Feasibility of GO Service Extension Option 34 Strategic Case 35 Introduction 36 Strategic Goal 1: STRONG CONNECTIONS 38 Objective 1: Improve Connections to Opportunities and Key Destinations 39 Objective 2: Improve Access to Areas of Employment and Employment Growth 44 Objective 3: Deliver Rapid Transit to Hamilton 46 Objective 4: Integration within Existing Transit Network 53 Strategic Goal 2: COMPLETE TRAVEL EXPERIENCES 55 Objective 5: Improve Customer Experience on Transit 56 Objective 6: Create Rapid Transit Corridor(s) to Improve Travel Time and Reliability 58 Objective 7: Provide Equitable and Affordable Transportation 63 Strategic Goal 3: SUSTAINABLE AND HEALTHY COMMUNITIES 69 Objective 8: Improve Liveability through Reduction in Traffic Delays, Auto Dependency and Air Pollution 70 Strategic Goal 4: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 72 Objective 9: Support Community Prosperity 73 ii Objective 10: Expand Opportunities for Employment Growth 78 Strategic Case Summary 79 Economic Case 82 Introduction and Assumptions 83 Modelling Assumptions 84 Costs 85 User Impacts 88 External Impacts 89 Economic Case Summary 89 Benefit-Cost Ratio Floor 92 Potential Future Analysis 92 LRT Extension Options 92 Project Cost Optimization 92 Road Network Modifications 93 Bus Network Modifications 93 Electric Bus Fleet 94 Economic Parameters Sensitivity Tests 95 Financial Case 97 Introduction 98 Capital Costs 98 Operating and Maintenance Costs 100 Revenue Impacts 101 Financial Case Summary 101 Deliverability and Operations Case 102 Introduction 103 Delivery Requirements and Constraints 103 Environmental Assessment 103 iii Properties 103 Utilities 104 Roads and Traffic 105 Operating Requirements 105 Roles and Responsibilities 105 Fleet 106 Fleet Maintenance and Storage Facilities 106 Transit Terminals 107 Other Ancillary Infrastructure 107 Interfaces with Traffic 107 Procurement Options 108 Delivery Timelines 108 Conclusion 109 iv Executive Summary Scope The Hamilton Rapid Transit study is a planning and design study based on the recommendations from the Hamilton Transportation Task Force (HTTF) Report1. The study’s focus was the development of rapid transit options that can be delivered within a $1 billion capital budget envelope, as committed by the Province of Ontario. Rapid transit would benefit Hamilton by improving the capacity, reliability and travel time of transit along the City’s main travel corridors; thereby optimizing the transportation network, creating a more sustainable compact urban core, encouraging mixed-use developments, and accommodating the projected population and employment growth. The HTTF recommended consideration of light rail transit (LRT) or bus rapid transit (BRT) projects that can be delivered within the committed capital funding. Initial project planning and development identified three investment options for consideration: • Option 1 LRT: LRT on the B-Line from McMaster to Dundurn (3.2 km); • Option 2 B-Line BRT: Two-way curbside BRT infrastructure from Dundurn to Parkdale on King Street (8.5 km) with transit priority measures at intersections between McMaster University and Eastgate Square (14.0 km); and • Option 3 B-Line BRT + A-Line Transit Priority: o B-Line: One-way curbside BRT infrastructure from Dundurn to Ottawa along Main Street and King Street (6.2 km), with transit priority measures at intersections between McMaster University and Eastgate Square (14.0 km). o A-Line: Conversion of James Mountain Road to a transit-only roadway (0.7 km) and transit priority measures at intersections between Mohawk College and Rymal Road (4.5 km). Options were developed using existing information, designs and cost estimates from the original Hamilton LRT project. This was supplemented with experience from other rapid transit projects in the GTHA and rest of Ontario. While the previous Hamilton LRT project had advanced to the procurement phase and had significant preliminary design works completed, the options in this Benefits Report have not reached a level of design development that would be expected for an Initial Business Case. If a rapid transit investment in Hamilton is selected to advance following this report, it is expected to then proceed through the standard business case and approvals process, starting with an Initial Business Case. The capital budget envelope limited the ability to develop a more optimal LRT option that connected two areas with high ridership and key destinations. (e.g. McMaster to Downtown Hamilton). For this reason, the LRT option does not perform well in this study, but could improve substantially if additional funding would be made available for the delivery of a longer LRT alignment. The HTTF also recommended consideration of more frequent GO rail service to Hamilton GO Centre, if intra-city transit options were not feasible. Initial investigations found that this option would likely require over $1 billion in capital investment, and would not realize benefits until 2028-2030 at the 1 Hamilton Transportation Task Force Report (2020) available at: https://www.ontario.ca/page/hamilton-transportation-task-force-report 1 earliest. Therefore, this option was not further considered in this study. However, Metrolinx estimates increased service to West Harbour GO station is more feasible and cost effective to obtain through existing infrastructure and smaller future infrastructure investments. Method of Analysis This Benefits Report provides an indication of how the options would perform under a typical business case evaluation framework. The evaluation is completed using the methodology from the Metrolinx Business Case Guidance Volume 22. The investment options are evaluated across four key categories: the strategic, economic, financial and deliverability and operations cases. Investment options are compared against a Business As Usual (BAU) scenario, which assumes there is no rapid transit system in Hamilton for the A- and B-Lines and reflects the existing and in delivery networks under the 2041 RTP, with the exception of the cancelled Hamilton LRT. Preliminary Findings Strategic Case The strategic case identifies the desired strategic outcomes of the investment in relation to the 2041 Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) goals, and outlines the criteria for each of the objectives, and evaluates the three investment options through indices that are relevant to each specific criterion. • Option 1 LRT: McMaster to Dundurn has negative impacts due to the short distance it covers, forcing riders to transfer in all but the shortest trips. • Both BRT options provide enhanced coverage and access, time savings, community improvements, and expanded opportunities for economic growth and development. Option 3 B-Line BRT + A-Line Transit Priority generally outperforms the other options due to the greater coverage that it provides. Economic Case Option 1 LRT: McMaster to Dundurn resulted in negative net benefits relative to the BAU; while both BRT options resulted in positive net benefits that do not outweigh costs. These are driven by: • Transit travel time disbenefits for Option 1 LRT: McMaster to Dundurn; which indicates that the LRT provides less utility than the current bus service. This is likely due to the short length of the alignment and the transfer required for trips to and from other