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The Integration of Solar Generation on a Power System: Operational and Economic Evaluation

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The Integration of Solar Generation on a Power System: Operational and Economic Evaluation THE INTEGRATION OF SOLAR GENERATION ON A POWER SYSTEM: OPERATIONAL AND ECONOMIC EVALUATION by Marco Absalón Velástegui Andrade A Dissertation Submitted to the Faculty of Purdue University In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Department of Agricultural Economics West Lafayette, Indiana December 2018 ii THE PURDUE UNIVERSITY GRADUATE SCHOOL STATEMENT OF COMMITTEE APPROVAL Dr. Paul V. Preckel, Chair Department of Agricultural Economics Dr. Douglas J. Gotham State Utility Forecasting Group Dr. Andrew L. Liu School of Industrial Engineering Dr. Otto C. Doering Department of Agricultural Economics Approved by: Dr. Nicole O. Widmar Head of the Graduate Program iii A dedication to my dad in heaven and family. iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to thank my advisor, Dr. Paul Preckel for supporting and guiding me through this research process over the years. His mentorship and constant encouragement made this dissertation possible. I feel so grateful to have had him as my mentor and advisor. I would like to give a special thanks to the rest of my committee members. Dr. Douglas Gotham for his patience and expert advice; Dr. Andrew Liu and Dr. Otto Doering for their time and feedback that helped to improve my research. I am also thankful for my colleagues at the State Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG): Dr. David Nderitu, Mr. Timothy Phillips, Dr. Liwei Lu, Mrs. Fang Wu and Mrs. Darla Mize. Thank you all for your understanding and support provided through busy times. I would also like to thank Dr. Willian Hutzel from Purdue University and Mr. Larry Conrad from the Indianapolis Power & Light Company (IPL) for providing valuable data for this study. I would like thank my amazing parents and family for their love and always being there for me through the good and bad times. Finally, this long journey would not have been possible without the help and unconditional support of all my friends, especially Ángel Aguiar and his family, Ricardo Arias and his family, Nathália La Salvia, Regilene Lima, Mario Munive, Rándol Rodríguez, and Ulianova Vidal. v TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................... viii LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................... ix ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................................ x CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................... 1 1.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 1 CHAPTER 2. LITERATURE REVIEW ......................................................................... 6 2.1 PV Solar power: A general review ............................................................................ 6 2.2 Integration of Utility-Scale PV Solar Generation on a Power System...................... 7 2.2.1 PV Solar Power System Optimal Operational Designs ................................... 8 2.2.2 PV Solar Generation and Power Generation System Characteristics ............ 12 2.2.3 Impacts of PV Solar Integration on a Power System .................................... 16 2.2.4 Background: PV Solar Capacity Value Calculation ...................................... 19 CHAPTER 3. METODOLOGY .................................................................................... 25 3.1 Data Collection, Analysis and Simulation .............................................................. 25 3.1.1 Indiana’s Conventional Generation Assets Data ........................................... 25 3.1.2 Simulated PV Solar Generation Data ............................................................ 25 3.1.2.1 Calibration of SAM Model ....................................................................... 26 3.1.2.2 Indiana’s PV Solar Generation Assets ...................................................... 29 3.1.2.3 Simulation of PV Solar Hourly Generation Data ..................................... 33 3.1.2.4 Conversion to 5-minute PV Solar Generation Data ................................. 34 3.1.3 Indiana’s Wind Assets and Generation Data ................................................. 41 3.1.4 Indiana’s Load Data ....................................................................................... 43 3.1.5 Wholesale Electricity Price Data ................................................................... 43 3.2 PV Solar Capacity within a Power System ............................................................. 44 3.2.1 Load Net of Renewables ................................................................................ 44 3.2.2 Scenarios Considered ..................................................................................... 45 3.2.3 Impacts of Integrating PV Solar on Other Generation Resources ................. 46 3.2.3.1 Impacts on Capacity ................................................................................. 47 3.2.3.2 Impacts on Capital Costs .......................................................................... 54 vi 3.2.3.3 Impacts on Energy .................................................................................... 56 3.2.3.4 Impacts on System Operations Costs ....................................................... 62 3.2.3.5 Estimation of PV Solar and PV Solar plus Wind Capacity Value ........... 63 CHAPTER 4. RESULTS ............................................................................................... 65 4.1 Comparison of Results for Three System Configurations ...................................... 65 4.1.1 Tilt and Azimuth Optimal Configuration Results ......................................... 65 4.1.2 Optimal Electricity Generation and Revenue Results ................................... 68 4.2 Results for Solar and Wind Additions Scenarios .................................................... 71 4.2.1 Capacity Impacts Results ............................................................................... 71 4.2.2 Energy Impacts Results ................................................................................. 76 4.2.3 Cost and Wholesale Electricity Rate Impact Results .................................... 79 4.3 Capacity Value of Solar .......................................................................................... 84 CHAPTER 5. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS .................................................. 89 5.1 Discussion ............................................................................................................... 89 5.1.1 Discussion of Optimal PV Solar System Configuration Results ................... 89 5.1.2 Discussion of the Base Case and Alternative Scenarios Results ................... 91 5.1.3 Discussion of the Solar Capacity Value Results ............................................ 95 5.2 Conclusions ............................................................................................................. 96 5.2.1 Conclusions of Using Various PV Solar System Configurations in Indiana . 97 5.2.2 Conclusions Regarding the Impacts of Integrating PV Solar into a Power System in Indiana ...................................................................................................... 99 5.2.3 Conclusions of the Solar Capacity Value Calculation Methodology .......... 101 5.3 Caveats .................................................................................................................. 102 5.3.1 Factors Affecting the LDC, Capacity Additions and Costs ......................... 103 5.3.2 Weather, Load and Solar Patterns ............................................................... 104 5.3.3 Factors Affecting Capacity Value Calculation ............................................ 104 5.3.4 Transmission Line Constraints .................................................................... 105 5.3.5 Potential Environmental Impacts ................................................................. 105 5.3.6 Geographic Diversity and Non-Interconnected Generation System ........... 105 5.4 Future Work .......................................................................................................... 106 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................... 108 vii APPENDIX A. GAMS CODE FOR INDIANA PIECEWISE LINEAR APROXIMATION .......................................................................................................... 114 APPENDIX B. GAMS CODE FOR INDIANA 5-MINUTE DATA SIMULATION ... 117 APPENDIX C. GAMS CODE FOR BASE CASE CAPACITY EXPASION AND COMMITMENT/DISPACTH MODEL ......................................................................... 121 VITA ............................................................................................................................... 132 viii LIST OF TABLES Table 3-1 Input Parameters by Array Type resulting from SAM model calibration* ...... 29 Table 3-2 Capacity and Number of Installed PV Generation Solar Projects in Indiana ... 30 Table 3-3 Weather Stations, Counties and Projects Capacity by Zone ............................ 31 Table 3-4 Installed PV solar capacity (kWac) by zone, module type and array type ....... 33 Table 3-5 Simulated Annual System Output (MWh) ....................................................... 34 Table 3-6 Indiana Installed Derated Capacity by Generation Type
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