UNIVERSITY OF WAIKATO Hamilton New Zealand Credit Losses in Australasian Banking Kurt Hess, Arthur Grimes and Mark J. Holmes Department of Economics Working Paper in Economics 08/10 June 2008 Corresponding Author Kurt Hess Department of Finance University of Waikato Management School Private Bag 3105, Hamilton, New Zealand, 3240 Phone: +64 7 838 4196 Email:
[email protected] Web: http://www.mngt.waikato.ac.nz/kurt/ Arthur Grimes Motu Economic and Public Policy Research, & University of Waikato Wellington, New Zealand Mark J. Holmes Department of Economics University of Waikato Management School Hamilton, New Zealand Abstract We analyse determinants of bank credit losses in Australasia. Despite sizeable credit losses over the past two decades, ours is the first systematic study to do so. Analysis is based on a comprehensive dataset retrieved from original financial reports of 32 Australasian banks (1980- 2005). Credit losses rise when the macro economy is weak. Asset markets, particularly the equity market, are also important. Larger banks provide more for credit losses while less efficient banks have greater asset quality problems. Strong loan growth translates into significantly higher credit losses with a lag of 2-4 years. Finally, the results show strong evidence of income smoothing activities by banks. Keywords banking credit risk loan loss provisions Australia New Zealand JEL Codes G20, G21 - 2 - I Introduction Over the past two decades, Australasian banks have been beset with episodes of major credit losses. Yet little is known about the systematic determinants of these losses. We analyse the nature of these determinants, providing the first comprehensive study of the drivers of credit losses in Australasian banking.