MYANMAR: STORM CLOUDS ON THE HORIZON Asia Report N°238 – 12 November 2012 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................... i I. A BACKWARD STEP ...................................................................................................... 1 A. INTERCOMMUNAL VIOLENCE ....................................................................................................... 1 B. POLITICAL UNDERPINNINGS ......................................................................................................... 2 C. AN INTERNATIONAL PROBLEM .................................................................................................... 3 D. A QUESTION OF CITIZENSHIP ....................................................................................................... 3 E. MOVING AWAY FROM VIOLENCE ................................................................................................. 4 F. THE RISKS OF SEGREGATION ....................................................................................................... 5 G. THE GOVERNMENT’S RESPONSE .................................................................................................. 6 H. A THREAT TO ALL COMMUNITIES ................................................................................................ 6 II. MUCH POLITICAL PROGRESS .................................................................................. 7 A. CONSOLIDATION OF THE REFORM PROCESS ................................................................................. 7 B. TENSIONS WITH THE LEGISLATURE .............................................................................................. 9 C. CONSOLIDATION OF THE PRESIDENT’S POWER ........................................................................... 11 D. EVOLUTION OF AUNG SAN SUU KYI’S POLITICAL POSITION ...................................................... 12 E. IMPROVED RELATIONS WITH THE WEST ..................................................................................... 13 III. SOCIAL TENSIONS ....................................................................................................... 14 A. RISING SOCIAL TENSIONS .......................................................................................................... 14 B. THE MONYWA COPPER MINE .................................................................................................... 15 IV. PROSPECTS FOR A STABLE TRANSITION ........................................................... 17 A. THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH SINGLE-PARTY DOMINANCE ....................................................... 17 B. OPTIONS TO MINIMISE THE RISKS .............................................................................................. 18 V. CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................ 19 APPENDICES A. MAP OF MYANMAR ......................................................................................................................... 20 B. MYANMAR CABINET FOLLOWING THE RESHUFFLE .......................................................................... 21 C. ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP .................................................................................... 22 D. CRISIS GROUP REPORTS AND BRIEFINGS ON ASIA SINCE 2009 ......................................................... 23 E. CRISIS GROUP BOARD OF TRUSTEES ................................................................................................ 26 Asia Report N°238 12 November 2012 MYANMAR: STORM CLOUDS ON THE HORIZON EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Myanmar’s leaders continue to demonstrate that they have rise and old prejudices resurface. The difficulty in reach- the political will and the vision to move the country deci- ing a ceasefire in Kachin State underlines the complexity sively away from its authoritarian past, but the road to of forging a sustainable peace with ethnic armed groups. democracy is proving hard. President Thein Sein has de- There are also rising grassroots tensions over land grab- clared the changes irreversible and worked to build a du- bing and abuses by local authorities, and environmental rable partnership with the opposition. While the process and social concerns over foreign-backed infrastructure remains incomplete, political prisoners have been released, and mining projects. In a context of rising popular expec- blacklists trimmed, freedom of assembly laws implemented, tations, serious unaddressed grievances from the past, and and media censorship abolished. But widespread ethnic new-found freedom to organise and demonstrate, there is violence in Rakhine State, targeting principally the Roh- potential for the emergence of more radical and confron- ingya Muslim minority, has cast a dark cloud over the re- tational social movements. This will represent a major test form process and any further rupturing of intercommunal for the government and security services as they seek to relations could threaten national stability. Elsewhere, so- maintain law and order without rekindling memories of cial tensions are rising as more freedom allows local con- the recent authoritarian past. flicts to resurface. A ceasefire in Kachin State remains elusive. Political leaders have conflicting views about how A key factor in determining the success of Myanmar’s power should be shared under the constitution as well as transition will be macro-political stability. In 2015, Aung after the 2015 election. Moral leadership is required now San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) to calm tensions and new compromises will be needed if will compete for seats across the country for the first time divisive confrontation is to be avoided. since the abortive 1990 elections. Assuming these polls are free and fair, they will herald a radical shift in the bal- The president has moved to consolidate his authority with ance of power away from the old dispensation. But an his first cabinet reshuffle. Ministers regarded as conserva- NLD landslide may not be in the best interests of the party tive or underperforming were moved aside and many new or the country, as it would risk marginalising three im- deputy ministers appointed. There are now more techno- portant constituencies: the old political elite, the ethnic crats in these positions, and the country has its first female political parties and the non-NLD democratic forces. If minister. The president also brought his most trusted cab- the post-2015 legislatures fail to represent the true politi- inet members into his office, creating a group of “super- cal and ethnic diversity of the country, tensions are likely ministers” with authority over broad areas of government to increase and fuel instability. – a move perhaps partially motivated by a desire to strength- en his position vis-à-vis the legislature. A dispute over a The main challenge the NLD faces is not to win the elec- controversial ruling by the presidentially-appointed Con- tion, but to promote inclusiveness and reconciliation. It stitutional Tribunal led to impeachment proceedings and has a number of options to achieve this. It could support a the resignation of the tribunal members, highlighting both more proportional election system that would create more the power of the legislature, and the risks to a political representative legislatures, by removing the current “win- structure in transition as new institutions test the bounda- ner-takes-all” distortion. Alternatively, it could form an al- ries of their authority. liance with other parties, particularly ethnic parties, agree- ing not to compete against them in certain constituencies. The transition has been remarkable for its speed and the Finally, it could support an interim “national unity” can- apparent lack of any major internal resistance, including didate for the post-2015 presidency. This would reassure from the military. It will inevitably face enormous chal- the old guard, easing the transition to an NLD-dominated lenges. The ongoing intercommunal strife in Rakhine State political system. Critically, this option could also build is of grave concern, and there is the potential for similar support for the constitutional change required to allow violence elsewhere, as nationalism and ethno-nationalism Aung San Suu Kyi to become president at a future date, a Myanmar: Storm Clouds on the Horizon Crisis Group Asia Report N°238, 12 November 2012 Page ii change that is unlikely prior to 2015 given the opposition of the military bloc, which has a veto over any amendment. Pursuing any of these paths will require that the NLD make sacrifices and put the national interest above party- political considerations. With a national leader of the cal- ibre of Aung San Suu Kyi at the helm, it can certainly rise to this challenge. Jakarta/Brussels, 12 November 2012 Asia Report N°238 12 November 2012 MYANMAR: STORM CLOUDS ON THE HORIZON grims in Toungup township, who were not Rohingya, I. A BACKWARD STEP came after the distribution of inflammatory leaflets attack- ing followers of their religion. It was a worrying develop- The situation in Myanmar has been evolving rapidly, in a ment as it cast the tensions as Muslim versus Buddhist and mostly positive direction.1 Yet, the flare-up in Rakhine showed how easily the distrust between religions could be State represents a deeply disturbing backward step.2 The manipulated by rising ultra-nationalist sentiments.