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BHP 20181101 15 Dividend Rebate Provided for the exclusive use of Sreemathy Ganesasubrarnanyam at DB Employee on 2018-11-02T04:56+00:00 DO NOT REDISTRIBUTE Deutsche Bank Research Rating Company Date IZI Hold BHP 1 November 2018 Company Update Australasia Australia Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 1 Nov 2018 33.11 M&M - Diversified BHP.AX BHP AU ASX BHP Price target - 12mth 36.00 Resources 52 week range (AUD) 35.50 - 26.95 ALL ORDINARIES 5,958 15% (plus tax rebate) harvest Valuation & Risks James Gurry We view BHP's A$10.4bn returns program as particularly friendly to Australian Research Analyst shareholders given the tax component on both legs. A 50/50 off-market buyback +61-3-9270-4104 in Australia to commence immediately and then special dividend applicable to all shares on issue in January 2019 post the buyback, should most broadly satisfy Liam Fitzpatrick holders. Within this note we have updated our model and NPV to reflect the Research Analyst announced proceedings. +44-207-541-3233 Robust harvest as equity market faces its current bought of volatility ... J Key changes Net profit (FYE) 9,479.1 to -I, -0.2% In our note Select ive Harvest on 11-Sept, we suggested investors mine carefully 9,464.1 Source: Deutsche Bank for share price upside in WHC and $32, but not ignore the significant dividend harvest on offer at the large caps. Since then Rio Tinto has completed its IPrice/price relative maximum Ltd buyback at 10% of issued ASX shares, BHP has just announced 40 a favourable form of shareholder returns and even our least preferred stock 30 ...... ~ FMG has commenced a buyback. We think that with relatively tight commodity ~~~ ·yW' markets, large operating margins that can soak up some unit cost inflation 20 (particularly in coal and iron ore but not aluminium), a falling AUD, and the Jan '17 Jul '17 Jan '1B Jnha opportunity to attractively buy into real assets (not intangible concept businesses) - BHP ALL ORDINARIES (Rebased) - we think the sector is in a different position this time as the equity market faces a broader test of strength. Performance (%) 1m 3m 12m Absolute -7.0 -7.6 21.4 Details and our views : ALL ORDINARIES -5.8 -6.4 -0.6 Sot.itoo.' Deutsche Bank I • Of the total $10.5bn shale sale proceeds, $10.4bn is returned so no IKey indicators (FY1) disappointment on size of the program. ROE(%) 19.1 ROA(%) 18.4 ■ Off market by 17-December, A$7.3bn with possible 14% max discount Net debt/equity (%) 27.1 expected, we calculate this as ~8% of Ltd shares and ~5% of total Group Book value/share (USD) 8.91 shares including Pie shares. Price/book (x) 2.8 Net interest cover (x) 21.1 ■ Special dividend to be paid in January 2019 with the remaining $5.2bn, EBIT margin (%) 38.9 Source: Deutsche Bank ■ Special dividend will also include Australian tax franking credits for those I who can use them. While the off market only applies to Ltd shares, the Special dividend will as per usual be on all BHP shares including Pie. ■ Share count of BHP group as of 1-Nov-2018 is 5,324 million ■ Shares repurchased under December market buy-back is 256 million Deutsche Bank AG/Sydney Distributed on: 01/11/201810:48:10 GMT Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 091/04/2018. Provided for the exc lusive use of Sree mathy Ganesasubramanyam at DB Employee on 20 18-1 1-02TD4:56+00:00 DO NOT REDIST RIBUT E 1 November 2018 M&M - Diversified Resources BHP IZI ■ Shares count of BHP group post market buy-back is 5,067 million • Reduction in share count is about 5% ■ Capital remaining for special dividends is US$5.2bn ■ Likely special dividend per share is 103 USc (AUD 144cps) ■ Off mkt buyback accretion 4.8% ■ Yield on special dividend 4.3% (144c/Ltd A$33.11) ■ Total extra returns ~9% ■ Base business ordinary dividend yield 5.8% (6.9% DBe at spot commodity prices) ■ Total returns for FY19: 14.8% Catalysts: BHP is holding a capital allocation day on 21-Nov where we hope to learn more about the approach to possible future shareholder returns, and in particular how capital shall be allocated to conventional oil and copper- the two business areas flagged for growth. What about more coking coal? Our recent China trip highlighted coking coal as a strategic concern for China's steel industry given robust steel-making conditions and the priority of thermal coal production and power generation . Coking coal is ~20% of BHP EBITDA and the company has guided to 43-46Mt this year at unit cost $68-72/tonne in FY19 lowering to $58/t medium term . Within this note we also include our buyback accretion tables and BHP's history of capital management. IFore casts and ratios Year End Jun 30 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E Sales (USDm) 38,285 43,638 44,113 44,843 44,137 EBITDA (USDm) 20,296 20,262 23,760 24,326 23,006 Net Profit (USDm) 6,732 8,933 9,464 9,883 8,960 EPS (USD) 1.26 1.67 1.94 2.11 2.01 OLD EPS (USD) 1.26 1.67 1.94 2.13 2.03 % Change 0.0% 0.0% -0.3% -0.8% -0.9% PER (x) 14.0 13.3 12.1 11.1 11.7 PE Relative (x) EV/EBITDA (x) 6.0 6.8 5.5 5.5 5.9 Yield (net) (%) 4.7 5.3 10.0 5.3 5.1 Franking (% ) 100 100 100 100 100 Source: Deursche Bank estimates , compan y data Page 2 Deutsche Bank AG/Sydney F',ov iclecl fo, l11eexc lusive use o1 SrnE,inathy G;,11osasubrmn~nyrnr 1 at DB Employ ee on 20 18-11 -02T 04:56- 100:00 DO NO r f,ED IS TRIBUl E 1 November 2018 M&M - Diversified Resources BHP IZ] IFigure 1: BHP buy-back program Units 2011 Dac-18 Asset sale proceeds net of tax US$bn 6.3 10.4 Portion of promised capital return for Ltd buyback % 100% 50% Proposed buyback amount A$bn 6.0 7,3 AUD/USD exchange rate 0,95 0,71 Market price A$ 47.50 33,11 Buy-back discount (subject to ATO approval) % 14.0% 14.0% Buy-back price A$ 40.85 28.47 Scale back % 78.3% Likely high BHP BIiiiton Ltd shares bought back m 147.0 256.4 % of BHP Billtion Group Issued capital % 2.7% 4.8% ;'/I>ot BHP Blllt1on LIOISSUeO capltal % 4.4% 8.0% Capital component A$ 0.28 0.38 Additional capital component A$ 9.03 Fully franked dividend component A$ 40.57 28.09 Tax value A$ 49.88 28.47 Group EBITDAlost on US Shale divestment US$m 928 Group EBITDAlost on US Shale divestment % 3.8% Source: Company data - 2011 buyback , ~20l8buY bDdt IFigure 2: BHP-RIO buy back history 200 Aug,2018 (RIO) : US$1 ,75bn on­ market buy-back completed; US$2 .2bn to be bought back lthrough Feb-2019 160 Nov,2(118(BHP): usss..2bf'Ioff•= I~ NoY-2Q07(OH P): J buy..badland special dividends of USS2/lboofl • [ mN11-al buy•bilck u.s~,~--=====:\.-. Allg•2010 (RIO) : l USS9.2l>n buy-bad< 120 lannounced Mor-2007 (BHP): r I I j l/SS2,8bo off• O\JUl\ct buy-bod< 80 -- r - BHP share price (A$) ~ RIO share price (A$) So urce: Bloomberg Finance LP, Company data IFigure 3: December 2018 buy-back shares summary BHP December 2018 buy-back Units Share count BHP Group as of 1-Nov-2018 m 5,324 Shares repurchased under December market buy-back m 256 Share count BHP Group post market buy-back m 5,067 Reduction in share count % 5% Capital remaining for special dividends US$bn 5.20 likely special dividend per share US cents 103 ~ource: Deutsche Bank, Company data Deutsche Bank AG/Sydney Page 3 P,ovidecl ro, til e &xclusivc, use of Sree malh y Ganesasub rarnanya,n al DB Emplo yee on 2 0 1 8 -1 1-0 2 f0 4:56< 00 :00 0 0 NOT RED IS rHI BUI E 1 November 2018 M&M - Diversified Resources BHP IZ] IFigure 4: BHP financial summary IFXiCOMMoomES INomlniilJ f'l 17A FYl£111 MeF Mo F FY2tF fY22f IMarket Data Ltd Pie Tota( ,I\UDUSO 0.76 0.78 0.73 0.73 0.73 0,73 Ticker BHP.AX ULl,L 011-Brent tUSS/bbll 61 84 78 76 71 70 l&w•"'""' llx• • 33.11 ,~ .62 0,1 - WTI IUS$/bbll 49 59 71 66 62 63 Shom pr,c,, iVSD°""" 'lontJ 23_,o 19.i;a CoppertUSl/lbJ 2.46 3.06 2.97 3.19 3.36 3.39 Price difference 18% -15% Iron ore - lump IUS$/t) • CIF 76 80 79 71 69 70 Shares on issue (m) 3,212 2,112 5,324 Iron ore • fines IUSS/ll • CIF 68 67 84 BO 68 69 % al shares split Lid v Pie 60% 40% Colclngcoal (USS/I) 19Cl 197 11111 168 148 145 Soot FX l,AUO USDI (VSO ,Glll'I 0.7 1 1~ Thermal coal IUS$/I) - contract 67 91 100 101 96 90 j ~1o,1u,1Co!I I USOmJ 75,3\,4 42.
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