EXPLAINING EXTREME EVENTS of 2013 from a Climate Perspective Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol
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EXPLAINING EXTREME EVENTS OF 2013 From A Climate Perspective Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 95, No. 9, September 2014 EXPLAINING EXTREME EVENTS OF 2013 FROM A CLIMATE PERSPECTIVE Editors Stephanie C. Herring, Martin P. Hoerling, Thomas C. Peterson, and Peter A. Stott Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 95, No. 9, September 2014 AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY CORRESPONDING EDITOR: Stephanie C. Herring, PhD NOAA National Climatic Data Center 325 Broadway, E/CC23, Rm 1B-131 Boulder, CO, 80305-3328 E-mail: [email protected] COVER CREDITS: FRONT: The final wave of rain storms make their way through Boulder, Colorado, bringing another day of flooding to the already rain swollen area, 15 September 2013. Image by ©Ed Endicott/Demotix/Corbis. BACK: The city of Boulder, Colorado, experienced substantial flooding for four days that have lasting effects, 18 September 2013. Image by ©Anna M Weaver/Demotix/Corbis. HOW TO CITE THIS DOCUMENT __________________________________________________________________________________________ Citing the complete report: Herring, S. C., M. P. Hoerling, T. C. Peterson, and P. A. Stott, Eds., 2014: Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S1–S96. Citing a section (example): Hoerling, M., and Coauthors, 2014: Northeast Colorado extreme rains interpreted in a climate change context [in "Explaining Extremes of 2013 from a Climate Perspective"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S15–S18. EDITORIAL AND PRODUCTION TEAM Riddle, Deborah B., Lead Graphics Production, NOAA/NESDIS Misch, Deborah J., Graphics Support, JPS, Inc., NOAA/NESDIS National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC Veasey, Sara W., Graphics Team Lead, NOAA/NESDIS Osborne, Susan, Copy Editor, JPS, Inc., NOAA/NESDIS National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC Griffin, Jessica, Graphics Support, CICS-NC, Asheville, NC Sprain, Mara, Editorial Support, LAC Group, NOAA/NESDIS Love-Brotak, S. Elizabeth, Graphics Support, NOAA/NESDIS National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC Young, Teresa, Graphics Support, ERT/STG, Inc., NOAA/ NESDIS National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC EDITOR & AUTHOR AFFILIATIONS (ALPHABETICAL BY NAME) Abatzoglou, John T., Department of Geography, University of Funk, Chris, U.S. Geological Survey and Climate Hazard Group, Idaho, Moscow, Idaho University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, Cali- Alexander, Lisa V., Australian Research Council Centre of fornia Excellence for Climate System Science, Climate Change Re- Haeseler, Susanne, German Meteorological Service, Hamburg, search Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New Germany South Wales, Australia Harrington, Luke, School of Geography, Environment and Allen, Myles R., Environmental Change Institute and Atmo- Earth Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, spheric, Oceanic, and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, New Zealand Oxford, UK Haugen, Matz, Department of Statistics and Department of Añel, Juan A., Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, Environmental Earth System Science and Woods Institute for University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom and EPhys- the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, California Lab, Facultade de Ciencias, Universidade de Vigo, Ourense, Hegerl, Gabriele C., University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Spain Scotland Arblaster, Julie M., Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Hendon, Harry H., Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia and National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Herring, Stephanie C., NOAA’s National Climatic Data Cen- Colorado ter, Boulder, Colorado Ashfaq, Moetasim, Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Hoell, Andrew, Climate Hazard Group, University of California Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California Braganza, Karl, Climate Information Services, Bureau of Me- Hoerling, Martin P., NOAA’s Earth System Research Labora- teorology, Melbourne, Australia tory, Boulder, Colorado Buisán, Samuel T., Agencia Estatal de Meteorología, Zaragoza, Horton, Daniel E., Department of Environmental Earth System Spain Science and Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford Bunkers, Matthew J., NOAA’s National Weather Service, University, Stanford, California Rapid City, South Dakota Imada, Yukiko, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, Cattiaux, Julien, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, University of Tokyo, Chiba, Japan Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Groupe Ishii, Masayoshi, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Me- d’étude de l’atmosphère Météorologique Toulouse, France teorological Agency, Ibaraki, Japan Charland, Allison, Department of Environmental Earth System Johnson, Nathaniel C., International Pacific Research Center, Science and Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii and Scripps University, Stanford, California Institution of Oceanography, University of California–San Christidis, Nikolaos, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Diego, La Jolla, California Kingdom Karoly, David J., School of Earth Sciences and Australian Re- Ciavarella, Andrew, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United search Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Sci- Kingdom ence, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia Dean, Sam M., National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Kim, Maeng-Ki, Department of Atmospheric Science, Kongju Research, Wellington, New Zealand National University, Gongju, Chungnam, Korea Diaz, Henry, University of Colorado, Cooperative Institute for Kim, Yeon-Hee, School of Environmental Science and Engineer- Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, Colorado ing, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang, Diffenbaugh, Noah S., Department of Environmental Earth Gyeongbuk, Korea System Science and Woods Institute for the Environment, Kimoto, Masahide, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, Stanford University, Stanford, California University of Tokyo, Chiba, Japan Dole, Randall, NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory, King, Andrew D., Australian Research Council Centre of Excel- Boulder, Colorado lence for Climate System Science, Climate Change Research Donat, Markus G., Australian Research Council Centre of Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Excellence for Climate System Science, Climate Change Re- Wales, Australia search Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New Knutson, Thomas R., NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics South Wales, Australia Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey Dong, Buwen, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Lefebvre, Christiana, German Meteorological Service, Ham- Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, burg, Germany United Kingdom Lewis, Sophie C., Australian Research Council Centre of Excel- Edwards, Laura M., South Dakota State University Extension, lence for Climate System Science, School of Earth Sciences, Aberdeen, South Dakota University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia Eischeid, Jon, University of Colorado, Cooperative Institute for Lim, Eun-Pa, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Re- Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, Colorado search, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia Feser, Frauke, Institute for Coastal Research, Helmholtz- Liu, Guo, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Zentrum Geesthacht, Geesthacht, Germany Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY SEPTEMBER 2014 | Si López-Moreno, Juan Ignacio, Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, Sparrow, Sarah, Environmental Change Institute, University of Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Zaragoza, Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom Spain Stendel, Martin, Danish Climate Centre, Danish Meteorological Ma, Shuangmei, State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Stone, Dáithí, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berke- (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy ley, California of Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Stott, Peter A., Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Beijing, China Kingdom Massey, Neil R., Environmental Change Institute, University of Stuart, Stephen, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom Research, Wellington, New Zealand Mei, Rui, Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Sutton, Rowan, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, Min, Seung-Ki, School of Environmental Science and Engineer- United Kingdom ing, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang, Swain, Daniel L., Department of Environmental Earth System Gyeongbuk, Korea Science and Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford Mori, Masato, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, Uni- University, Stanford, California versity of Tokyo, Chiba, Japan Todey, Dennis P., Department of Agriculture and Biosystems Otto, Friederike E. L., Environmental Change Institute, Uni- Engineering, South Dakota State University, Brookings, South versity of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom