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Climate Change Profile: South Sudan April 2018

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Climate Change Profile: South Sudan April 2018 Climate Change Profile South Sudan Climate Change Profile | South Sudan | Climate Change Profile | South Sudan | Climate Change Profile | South Sudan | Climate Change Profileouth |S Sudan | Climate Change Profile | South Sudan | Climate Change Profile | South Sudan | Climate Change Profile | South Sudan | Climate Change Profile | South Sudan | Climate Change Profile: South Sudan April 2018 Table of contents Introduction 3 Summary 3 Overall ranking 3 Biophysical vulnerability 3 Socio-economic vulnerability 4 National government strategies and policies 6 Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) 7 Climate finance 8 Climate change projects 8 Climate contribution of the Netherlands 8 Maps Map 1 Climate change in Sudan 11 Map 2 Changes in Precipitation and temperature increase: 1960-2039 11 Map 3 Livelihood zones of South Sudan 12 Map 4 Changes in yield with climate change: rain fed sorghum 13 | 2 | Climate Change Profile: South Sudan April 2018 Introduction Overall ranking This climate change profile is designed to help integrate As one of the world’s newest countries with little historical climate actions into development activities. It complements and current national data, South Sudan is not included in the publication ‘Climate-smart = Future-Proof! – Guidelines the rankings for international reports and assessments, for Integrating climate-smart actions into development such as the widely used ND-GAIN index1. Information for policies and activities’ and provides answers to some of the South Sudan, for example, is included in the Sudan in the questions that are raised in the step-by-step approach in ND-GAIN index (2016), in which Sudan was ranked 176th out these guidelines. of 181 countries. Sudan (including South Sudan) is the 7th most vulnerable and is the 14th least ready country, The current and expected effects of climate change differ meaning that it is extremely vulnerable to, yet unready to locally, nationally and regionally. The impacts of climate combat climate change effects. The Verisk Maplecroft change effects on livelihoods, food and water security, Climate Change Vulnerability Index does, however, include ecosystems, infrastructure etc. differ per country and region South Sudan in its evaluation of the vulnerability of human as well as community and individual, with gender a populations to climate change over the next 30 years. particularly important vulnerability factor. This profile aims The Vulnerability Index considers the risk of exposure to to give insight in the climate change effects and impacts in climate change and the resources of the country to cope South Sudan, with particular attention for food security and with extreme weather events. Out of 186 countries, South water. It also sheds light on the policies, priorities and Sudan ranked 3rd 2. commitments of the government in responding to climate change and important climate-relevant activities that are being implemented, including activities being Biophysical vulnerability3 internationally financed. Current climate. Historically, the prevalent rainfall pattern | 3 | shows lowest precipitation in the north-east and highest in Summary the south-west of the country, culminating in the Greenbelt along the border with the Central African Republic, the South Sudan is a landlocked country located in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Uganda. However, east-central region of Africa with an estimated population currently there is considerable variation in rainfall from year of 12.2 million. Nearly 87% of the South Sudanese to year and from location to location within the same year, population depends on agriculture, livestock, and forestry, due to bimodal and unimodal rainfall regimes. The bimodal yet these sectors contribute very little to the national areas cover much of Greater Equatoria (Western, Central and economy. Food imports support most of the urban Eastern Equatoria), while the rest of the country has a population. South Sudan is experiencing substantially unimodal regime. Consequently, agricultural performance warmer and drier weather, and the combination of these varies markedly depending primarily on latitude, with the effects leads to increasing evapotranspiration and more possibility of two and even three harvests per annum from droughts. Since 1980, decreasing rainfall has been the same plots in the Greenbelt in Greater Equatoria, and a accompanied by rapid increases in temperature on the single harvest in the unimodal areas further north. order of more than 1°C. This warming, which is two and a half times greater than the global warming, is making South Sudan receives most of its rain in the ‘long-rain’ ‘normal’ years effectively drier. Rapid population growth season between June and September, during which and the expansion of farming and pastoralism under a more relatively heavy and steady rains are usually common. variable climate regime could dramatically increase the number of at-risk people in Sudan over the next 20 years. Climate change will aggravate South Sudan’s fragile situation 1 GAIN index summarizes a country’s vulnerability to climate change and other global challenges in combination with readiness to improve and may contribute to existing tensions and conflict. resilience. http://index.gain.org 2 https://maplecroft.com/portfolio/new-analysis/2014/10/29/ climate-change-and-lack-food-security-multiply-risks-conflict-and- civil-unrest-32-countries-maplecroft/ 3 This section draws heavily on: USGS, Famine Early Warning Systems Network- Informing Climate Change Adaptation Series, FEWS NET (2011): A Climate Trend Analysis of Sudan http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2011/3072/pdf/ FS2011-3072.pdf UNEP Global Environmental Alert Service (2011): Food Security in the Horn of Africa: The implications of a Drier, Hotter and More Crowded Future http://na.unep.net/geas/getUNEPPageWithArticleID- Script.php?article_id=72. FAO (2014): Special Report of FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission to South Sudan http://www.fao.org/ docrep/019/i3652e/i3652e.pdf Climate Change Profile: South Sudan April 2018 In most years, rainfall totals of more than 500 mm provide Equatoria. Temperature impacts will be amplifying the enough water across parts of South Sudan for farming and effects of drought: observed warming of more than 1°C is livestock. Average annual temperatures are between 18 °C equivalent to another 10-20% reduction in rainfall through and 30 °C, with the coldest temperatures in elevated areas. increased evaporation7. South Sudan experiences both widespread and localized Climate change will affect water availability in the country. droughts and floods caused by above or below normal Most of South Sudan is covered by the Bahr el Ghazal, rainfall across the country or in a certain region. Flash Nile and Sobat River catchments that join at their floods often occur when the Nile River and its tributaries confluents near Malakal to form the White Nile. In contrast overflow during the months of August and September. to the Nile, the Sobat River and the Bahr el Ghazal river catchments have a strong seasonal character. Research on Current trends. According to the climate analysis of the Famine the Equatorial lakes and Bahr El Ghazal sub-basins suggest Early Warning Network (FEWS NET)4, much of South Sudan that an increase of 2°C in temperature might cause the has experienced a 10-20% decrease in long rains since the natural flow to fall to 50% of the current average in these mid-1970s. The region that received 500 mm or more of rain two sub-basins. The rising temperatures and uncertain has contracted, increasingly exposing populations in Upper rainfall could also impact on the Sudd, which is not only Nile, Jonglei and Eastern Equatoria to rainfall deficits. In the an important source of fish and products, but also a Upper Nile, the shift was from approximately 11 degrees to 10 wetland of global biodiversity importance. degrees north (see Map 1). A westward retraction is occurring in Jonglei and East Equatoria, with the 500-mm contour The transition to an even warmer climate has strong food shifting from approximately 33 degrees to 32 degrees east. security implications, reducing crop harvests and pasture Due to the reduced rainfall trend between the 1960s and late availability, and it can amplify the impact of droughts. 2011, the area receiving adequate rainfall to support The shrinking of the area receiving more than 500 mm of agro-pastoralist livelihoods (500 mm) has been reduced by rainfall will leave a large number of people exposed to | 4 | 18%. In addition to the 30 years trend of declining increased food insecurity, and will strongly impact crop precipitation, there is evidence that variability in the production in the south-eastern part of the country. amount and timing of rainfall will be increasing from year to year. Smoothed time series (see Map 2) of 1960-2009 rainfall, extracted from the extended Darfur region in Sudan and Socio-economic vulnerability South Sudan, show that 1960-2009 rainfall has been, on average, about 20% lower than rainfall between 1960 and 1989. Key facts8: GDP (PPP) per capita (2016)9: no data provided, Over the past 30 years, South Sudan has been among the decline from 2015 most rapidly warming locations on the globe, with of USD 1,850 temperatures increasing as much as 0.53 °C per decade5. Population (2017)10: 12,575,714 Temperatures have increased by more than 1 °C across large Projected population (2050)11: 25,366,000 parts of South Sudan. Map 1 (right panel) shows warming in Population density per km2 (2015)12: 20.85 Sudan and South Sudan as successive southward advances Human Development Index (2016)13: 181 out of 188 of the average temperatures. The spatial pattern of warming countries corresponds (broadly) with the areas associated with Corruption Perceptions Index (2016)14: 171 of 176 countries reduced precipitation. South Sudan and western Sudan are becoming drier and hotter. 7 https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2011/3072/pdf/FS2011-3072.pdf 8 Climate change. Actual rainfall records of East Africa since the As a new country, disaggregated statistics (from the Sudan) are unavailable for some variables.
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