Is China's Low Fertility Rate Caused by the Population Control Policy?
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World Fertility and Family Planning 2020: Highlights (ST/ESA/SER.A/440)
World Fertility and Family Planning 2020 Highlights ST/ESA/SER.A/440 Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division World Fertility and Family Planning 2020 Highlights United Nations New York, 2020 The Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat is a vital interface between global policies in the economic, social and environmental spheres and national action. The Department works in three main interlinked areas: (i) it compiles, generates and analyses a wide range of economic, social and environmental data and information on which States Members of the United Nations draw to review common problems and take stock of policy options; (ii) it facilitates the negotiations of Member States in many intergovernmental bodies on joint courses of action to address ongoing or emerging global challenges; and (iii) it advises interested Governments on the ways and means of translating policy frameworks developed in United Nations conferences and summits into programmes at the country level and, through technical assistance, helps build national capacities. The Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs provides the international community with timely and accessible population data and analysis of population trends and development outcomes for all countries and areas of the world. To this end, the Division undertakes regular studies of population size and characteristics and of all three components of population change (fertility, mortality and migration). Founded in 1946, the Population Division provides substantive support on population and development issues to the United Nations General Assembly, the Economic and Social Council and the Commission on Population and Development. It also leads or participates in various interagency coordination mechanisms of the United Nations system. -
A Decade of TFR Declines Suggests No Relationship Between Development and Sub-Replacement Fertility Rebounds
DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH VOLUME 44, ARTICLE 5, PAGES 125142 PUBLISHED 20 JANUARY 2021 https://www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/Vol44/5/ DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2021.44.5 Descriptive Finding A decade of TFR declines suggests no relationship between development and sub-replacement fertility rebounds Hampton Gray Gaddy © 2021 Hampton Gray Gaddy. This open-access work is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Germany (CC BY 3.0 DE), which permits use, reproduction, and distribution in any medium, provided the original author(s) and source are given credit. See https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/de/legalcode. Contents 1 Introduction 126 2 Methods 129 2.1 HDI–TFR associations 129 2.2 HLI–TFR associations 131 2.3 The role of gender equality 132 3 Results and discussion 132 3.1 HDI–TFR associations 132 3.2 HLI–TFR associations 134 3.3 The role of gender equality 136 4 Conclusion 137 5 Acknowledgements 137 References 138 Demographic Research: Volume 44, Article 5 Descriptive Finding A decade of TFR declines suggests no relationship between development and sub-replacement fertility rebounds Hampton Gray Gaddy1 Abstract BACKGROUND Human development is historically associated with fertility declines. However, demographic paradigms disagree about whether that relationship should hold at very high levels of development. Using data through the late 2000s, Myrskylä, Kohler, and Billari (2009, 2011) found that very high national levels of the Human Development Index (HDI) were associated with increasing total fertility rates (TFRs), at least at high levels of gender parity. OBJECTIVE This paper seeks to update that finding and to introduce the Human Life Indicator (HLI) as a novel measure of development within this debate. -
Muslim Fertility , Religion and Religiousness
1 02/21/07 Fertility and Religiousness Among European Muslims Charles F. Westoff and Tomas Frejka There seems to be a popular belief that Muslim fertility in Europe is much higher than that of non-Muslims. Part of this belief stems from the general impression of high fertility in some Muslim countries in the Middle East, Asia and Africa. This notion is typically transferred to Muslims living in Europe with their increasing migration along with concerns about numbers and assimilability into European society. I The first part of this paper addresses the question of how much difference there is between Muslim and non-Muslim fertility in Europe (in those countries where such information is available). At the beginning of the 21 st century, there are estimated to be approximately 40 – 50 million Muslims in Europe. Almost all of the Muslims in Central and Eastern Europe live in the Balkans. (Kosovo, although formally part of Serbia, is listed as a country in Table 1). In Western Europe the majority of Muslims immigrated after the Second World War. The post-war economic reconstruction and boom required considerably more labor than was domestically available. There were two principal types of immigration to Western Europe: (a) from countries of the respective former colonial empires; and (b) from Southern Europe, the former Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and Turkey. As much of this immigration took place during the 1950s and 1960s large proportions of present-day Muslims are second and third generation descendants. Immigrants to France came mostly from the former North African colonies Algeria (± 35 percent), Morocco (25 percent) and Tunisia (10 percent), and also from Turkey (10 percent). -
Global Population Trends: the Prospects for Stabilization
Global Population Trends The Prospects for Stabilization by Warren C. Robinson Fertility is declining worldwide. It now seems likely that global population will stabilize within the next century. But this outcome will depend on the choices couples make throughout the world, since humans now control their demo- graphic destiny. or the last several decades, world population growth Trends in Growth Fhas been a lively topic on the public agenda. For The United Nations Population Division makes vary- most of the seventies and eighties, a frankly neo- ing assumptions about mortality and fertility to arrive Malthusian “population bomb” view was in ascendan- at “high,” “medium,” and “low” estimates of future cy, predicting massive, unchecked increases in world world population figures. The U.N. “medium” variant population leading to economic and ecological catas- assumes mortality falling globally to life expectancies trophe. In recent years, a pronatalist “birth dearth” of 82.5 years for males and 87.5 for females between lobby has emerged, with predictions of sharp declines the years 2045–2050. in world population leading to totally different but This estimate assumes that modest mortality equally grave economic and social consequences. To declines will continue in the next few decades. By this divergence of opinion has recently been added an implication, food, water, and breathable air will not be emotionally charged debate on international migration. scarce and we will hold our own against new health The volatile mix has exploded into a torrent of threats. It further assumes that policymakers will books, scholarly articles, news stories, and op-ed continue to support medical, scientific, and technolog- pieces, presenting at least superficially plausible data ical advances, and that such policies will continue to and convincing arguments on all sides of every ques- have about the same effect on mortality as they have tion. -
Subreplacement Fertility in the West Before the Baby Boom (1900-1940)
Subreplacement Fertility in the West before the Baby Boom (1900-1940): Current and Contemporary Perspectives (version September 1, 2008) Jan Van Bavel – Interface Demography, Vrije Universiteit Brussel 1 [email protected] Abstract - Between 1920 and 1940, fertility has been below the replacement level in many western countries for about ten to twenty years. In today's scholarly literature, the interwar fertility trough is explained by economic crisis and war threat. This paper first collects series of fertility and net reproduction rates that are hard to reconcile with such a view. It then confronts current with contemporary interpretations of low fertility during the interwar period. The views held by interwar demographers appear to differ remarkably and systematically from current interpretations. According to the contemporary interpretations, low fertility was not due to war threat or economic crisis but rather to rising individualism, secularization, rationalization, and consumerism. These were trends that, according to leading sociologists, economists, and demographers of the first half of the twentieth century, were already going on at least since the nineteenth century. The paper concludes by discussing some implications for current theorizing about subreplacement fertility. 1 Many thanks to Anneleen Baerts for entering some of the fertility and economic indicators employed in this paper. Also thanks to Stephanie Coontz, Ron Lesthaeghe, Tomáš Sobotka, and Robert Woods for their useful suggestions and encouraging comments about earlier versions of this paper. Of course, all claims made in the current version remain the sole responsibility of the author. Subreplacement fertility before the baby boom Subreplacement Fertility in the West before the Baby Boom (1900-1940): Current and Contemporary Perspectives During the past decades, demographers have increasingly been debating causes and consequences of contemporary below-replacement level fertility in the Western world (overviews include Davis et al. -
Population Demographics
13 1 POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS 14 Population Demographics OVERVIEW China’s population has more than doubled during the last six decades, from 583 Due to the long-term SRB imbalance, there were 33 million12 fewer females in million in 1953 to 1.39 billion people in 2017.1 Today, China is home to about 20 China in 2017. This imbalance has implications for China’s future social and per cent of the world’s population, and it is the most populous country in the world. economic development, changing gender relations and triggering various social issues, including a ‘marriage squeeze’ due to the imbalance between the number China is a multi-ethnic country comprising 56 ethnic groups. The Han ethnic group of men and women available to marry. This will have a far-reaching impact on represents 91.5 per cent of the population, while the 55 ethnic minority groups2 future population development. accounting for the remaining 8.5 per cent.3 Currently, China’s population is ageing due to its long-term low TFR and In 2015, China had the world’s second-largest child population (aged 0–17 years), prolonged life expectancy at birth. While the population aged 0–14 years with an estimated 271 million children, including 147 million boys and 124 million represented 33.6 per cent of the total population in 1982, that same age group girls. Child population accounts for 20 per cent of the country’s total population or constituted 16.8 per cent of China’s population in 2017. In contrast, the 13 per cent of the world’s children. -
Total Fertility Rate, 2000 Vs. 2017
DID YOU KNOW? 2020 -13 Total fertility rate represents the number of children that Total Fertility Rate, 2000 vs. 2017 would be born to a woman if she were to live to the end of 2017 2000 her childbearing years and bear children in accordance with current age-specific fertility rates. It is computed by summing 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 up the age-specific fertility rates defined over five year Niger intervals. Somalia Mali The total fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman sustains Chad current population level (“replacement rate”) in case there is Nigeria no net migration and mortality remains unchanged. Gambia Burkina Faso However, the current scientific literature states that the Uganda threshold can be as high as 3.4 in some developing Mozambique countries because of higher mortality rates. Benin Guinea Total fertility declined across the OIC countries, falling on Cote d'Ivoire average from 3.9 children per woman of childbearing age in Senegal 2000 to 3.3 in 2017. Despite this decline over the last 17 Cameroon Afghanistan years, this rate was above that of the World (2.4), the Non- Mauritania OIC Developing (2.2) and the Developed Countries (1.6) Guinea-Bissau group in 2017. Sudan Togo During the 2000-2017 period, the decline in total fertility rate Sierra Leone by at least one child per woman on average was particularly Comoros observed in 24 OIC countries including Afghanistan, Yemen, Gabon Yemen Sierra Leone, Uganda, Djibouti, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Iraq Chad, Pakistan, Somalia, Qatar, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Palestine Guinea-Bissau, Jordan, Syria, UAE, Iraq, Cote d'Ivoire, Tajikistan Comoros, Bangladesh, Benin, Togo, and Sudan. -
World Fertility and Family Planning 2020: Ten Key Messagespdf
World Fertility and Family Planning 2020 January 2020 . https://www.unpopulation.org . #UNPopulation Long-term population trends are driven largely by fertility. Since the International Conference on Population and Development, held in Cairo in 1994, the international community has committed to actions that guarantee access to sexual and reproductive health, including family planning, and the realization of reproductive rights for all people. Contraception assists couples and individuals to achieve their reproductive goals, enabling them to exercise the right to have children by choice. The following key findings are based onWorld Fertility and Family Planning 2020: Highlights, prepared by the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA). Ten key messages 1. Although women are having fewer babies, fertility remains high in some regions From 1990 to 2019, the global fertility rate fell from 3.2 to 2.5 live births per woman. Today, close to half of the world’s population lives in a country where lifetime fertility is below 2.1 live births per woman.1 The decline in fertility ranged from 1.9 births per woman in Central and Southern Asia to 0.1 births per woman in Australia and New Zealand, Europe and Northern America. In sub-Saharan Africa, the region with the highest fertility levels, the total fertility rate dropped from 6.3 to 4.6 births per woman. Fertility levels also fell in Oceania (from 4.5 to 3.4), Northern Africa and Western Asia (from 4.4 to 2.9), Latin America and the Caribbean (from 3.3 to 2.0), and Eastern and South-Eastern Asia (from 2.5 to 1.8). -
SF2.1. Fertility Rates
OECD Family Database, oe.cd/fdb 1 SF2.1. Fertility rates Definitions and methodology This indicator presents information on levels and trends in fertility rates and the distribution of births by birth order. Fertility rates are captured through two measures: The Total Fertility Rate (TFR), or the average number of children born per woman over a lifetime given current age-specific fertility rates and assuming no female mortality during reproductive years. TFRs are computed as the sum of age-specific fertility rates defined over five-year intervals. Data on the TFR come mostly from national statistical offices and other international organisations (e.g. Eurostat and the World Bank). Assuming no migration and that mortality rates remain unchanged, a TFR of 2.1 children per woman is generally sufficient to generate a stable size of the population within a given country. A TFR above or below this ‘population replacement rate’ is likely to produce population growth and population decline, respectively. Completed Cohort Fertility (CCF), or the average number of children born to women belonging to certain cohort over the whole of their reproductive lives. Data on completed cohort fertility come from the Human Fertility Database (HFD), which calculates completed cohort fertility for a given cohort if data are available for that cohort at age 44 or above and by using data for the highest available age up to age 50. The distribution of births by birth order is measured through the distribution of births by the rank of the birth from the perspective of the biological mother. Three rank groups are used here – first births, second births, and third or higher births. -
Depopulation in the Baltic States
DEPOPULATION IN THE BALTIC STATES Peteris Zvidrins Centre of Demography, University of Latvia 19 Rainis boulv., Riga, Latvia LV 1586, Phone: 371-67034787 or 371-29103629 (mob.) Fax: 371-67034787 E-mail: [email protected] The purpose of this paper is to characterize the level and dynamics of population reproduction in the three Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) in the last two decades and analyze determinants of population decline. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the regaining of political independence in the Baltic States cardinally changed social and economic conditions and demographic developments. This inevitably led to fundamental changes in reproductive and migratory behaviour of population. As a result, the net migration in all Baltic States has become negative since 1990, and only in Estonia and Lithuania it was slightly positive in some years around the turn of centuries. After the accession to the European Union in 2004 emigration from the Baltic States even increased. The excess of deaths over births has been since 1991. A characteristic feature of the demographic development is the decrease of the population (depopulation) both the titular ethnicities (Estonians, Latvians and Lithuanians) and ethnic minorities. The total number of population in the Baltics decreased from 7.9 million in 1990 to less than 7.0 in 2009, or by 12%. Thus, the Baltic States have one of the highest population loss indicators in the world. Estonia and Latvia have had a low fertility rate since the beginning of the 20th century, and it has not ensured even a simple level of population replacement. -
Policy Response to Low Fertility in China: Too Little, Too Late?
Policy Response to Low Fertility in China: Too Little, Too Late? WANG FENG ISSUES Analysis from the East-West Center INTRODUCTION In 1970, Chinese women were having an average of nearly six No. 130 April 2017 children each. Only nine years later, this figure had dropped to an average The East-West Center promotes better of 2.7 children per woman. This steep fertility decline was achieved before relations and understanding among the people and nations of the United States, Asia, and the the Chinese government introduced the infamous one-child policy. Today, Pacific through cooperative study, research, and dialogue. Established by the US Congress at 1.5 children per woman, the fertility rate in China is one of the lowest in in 1960, the Center serves as a resource for information and analysis on critical issues of the world. Such a low fertility level leads to extreme population aging— common concern, bringing people together to exchange views, build expertise, and develop expansion of the proportion of the elderly in a population, with relatively policy options. The Center is an independent, public, nonprofit organization with funding from few children to grow up and care for their aging parents and few workers the US government, and additional support provided by private agencies, individuals, to pay for social services or drive economic growth. China’s birth-control foundations, corporations, and governments in the region. policies are now largely relaxed, but new programs are needed to provide Papers in the AsiaPacific Issues series feature healthcare and support for the growing elderly population and to encourage topics of broad interest and significant impact relevant to current and emerging policy debates. -
Module 4 Lexis Diagram
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike License. Your use of this material constitutes acceptance of that license and the conditions of use of materials on this site. Copyright 2008, The Johns Hopkins University and Stan Becker. All rights reserved. Use of these materials permitted only in accordance with license rights granted. Materials provided “AS IS”; no representations or warranties provided. User assumes all responsibility for use, and all liability related thereto, and must independently review all materials for accuracy and efficacy. May contain materials owned by others. User is responsible for obtaining permissions for use from third parties as needed. Fertility and Its Measurement Stan Becker, PhD Bloomberg School of Public Health Section A Indicators of Fertility Based on Vital Statistics Definitions Fecundity—Physiological capacity to conceive Infecundity (sterility)—Lack of the capacity to conceive – Primary sterility—Never able to produce a child – Secondary sterility—Sterility after one or more children have been born Continued 4 Definitions Fecundability—Probability that a woman will conceive during a menstrual cycle Fertility (natality)—Manifestation of fecundity Infertility—Inability to bear a live birth Natural fertility—Fertility in the absence of deliberate parity-specific control Continued 5 Definitions Reproductivity—Extent to which a group is replacing its own numbers by natural processes Gravidity—Number of pregnancies a woman has had Parity—Number of children