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Population Trends in China and India (A Review) ANSLEY J Proc. Nati Acad. Sci. USA Vol. 80, pp. 1757-1763, March 1983 Review Population trends in China and India (A Review) ANSLEY J. COALE Office of Population Research, Princeton University, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, New Jersey 08540 Contributed by Ansley J. Coale, December 6, 1982 China and India constitute the sole members of the top cate- GROWTH IN POPULATION, 1951-1981 gory-very large populations-in any listing of national popu- The increase in numbers of persons in China and India in the lations in order of size. The next two populations in such an or- 30 years beginning in 1951 is shown in Table 1. Note the more dering-the Soviet Union and the United States-are much rapid increase of India's population in the 1950s, and of China's smaller, neither being much more than a third as large as India's in the 1960s, so that the total proportionate increase in the two or more than about a quarter as large as China's. The 1 x 109 populations from 1951 to 1971 was nearly the same. In China, persons in China plus the nearly 700 x 10r in India represent there was a sharp reduction in rate of growth in the 1970s, but about 40% of the world total, well over half the aggregate pop- in India the rate of increase was the same in the 1970s as in the ulation of less-developed countries and more than the com- 1960s, so that the overall proportionate increase in India over bined numbers in Africa, Latin America, and Europe with the the 30 years was somewhat greater. The birth rate in China was Soviet Union added for good measure. much lower in the 1970s than in the 1960s; in India the esti- Although both countries are the heirs of cultures thousands mated decrease in birth rate from the earlier to the later decade of years old, both are in a sense young nations, having begun was only moderate. The death rate in China has fallen exten- their current national life after World War II when India be- sively; the Indian death rate, generally at a higher level, has de- came independent of British rule and the Chinese Communist clined less. Party established the People's Republic. The time pattern of changing birth rates in the two countries The growth in numbers in China and India since the rebirth differs in year-to-year variability as well as in the extent of de- of the two nations, the changing rates of birth and death, and cline since the 1950s. There is no compelling evidence of large the factors accounting for the changes are obviously a significant year-to-year fluctuations in the Indian birth rate; the modest chapter in recent demographic history. The future growth and downward course was at no point sharply reversed or suddenly future changes in the composition of the population of China accelerated. and India and the future trends in fertility and mortality will help On the other hand, numbers from various Chinese authori- determine the well-being of a substantial portion of the people ties who have published annual birth data indicate major fluc- in the world. tuations in birth rates around 1959-1963 and a subsequent sub- Data on population in China and India in the past 30 years stantial downward trend. Fig. 1 shows annual birth rates over are characterized by different kinds of limitation and uncer- the 30-year period from 1950 to 1980, as pieced together with- tainty. In regard to India, alarge volume of detailed information out correction from different Chinese authorities, and as ad- has been published in continuation of statistics collected, tab- justed for evident under-reporting. ulated, andpublished during the colonial period. The published During the "Great Leap Forward"' and the subsequent eco- data are frequently inaccurate in content (ages are grossly misre- nomic and agricultural crisis (1959-1961), the recorded number ported in the 12 censuses conducted in India since 1872) or less of births was sharply reduced. As more nearly normal condi- than complete (births and deaths are incompletely registered tions were restored, the birth rate rose above the pre-crisis level even in the sample registration scheme initiated by the Regis- and then declined to a rate less than half the rate in the 1950s trar General in the 1960s). In regard to China, where govern- or mid-1960s. ment control of many aspects of daily life entails maintenance Fig. 2 shows annual death rates in China from 1950 to 1980. in each locality of a current record of every individual and where They are derived from data published by Chinese authorities, traditional beliefs in astrology mean that individuals know their with no adjustment for understatement of the number of deaths. date of birth with precision, the prerequisites for obtaining ac- Because there is convincing evidence of under-reporting of births curate data are tantalizingly present. Little emphasis has been (especially during 1959-1961), one must suppose that the num- ber of deaths was also understated, especially the deaths of in- given to the compilation of aggregate population statistics, how- fants and young children. To be consistent with the adjusted ever, and very few data have been published in sources acces- birth rates, the death rates in the 1950s and 1960s in Fig. 2 must sible to foreigners, if at all, until the past 2 or 3 years. The pos- be increased by 3.0-3.5 per 103. Because there is no obvious sibility of achieving complete and precise statistics apparently basis for appropriate adjustments for individual years, the rates has not been realized. as determined from Chinese sources are reproduced unaltered. In other words, published demographic data for India are ex- The uncorrected values show a major reduction in mortality. tensive but intrinsically less than fully accurate, and published Because under-registration presumably was more extensive in data for China are sparse and potentially precise but, in fact, of the earlier years and during the crisis of 1959-1961, the true an accuracy that cannot be fully verified. Nevertheless, because decline was probably even greater than Fig. 2 indicates. of the special interest of demographers in these two populations and because refined methods of analysis can exploit internal BASIS OF SIMILARITIES AND DIFFERENCES IN consistency in both sets of data to construct estimates, it is pos- POPULATION TRENDS IN CHINA AND INDIA sible to depict with some confidence the general growth in num- According to the estimates assembled here, these two very large bers and the trends in fertility and mortality since 1950. populations have grown to a comparable extent (78% for China, 1757 Downloaded by guest on September 29, 2021 1758 Review: Coale Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 80 (1983) Table 1. Population growth in China and India, 1951-1981 Population Average rate of Average birth rate Average death rate Actual, % relative increase in previous in previous decade, in previous decade, millions to 1951 decade, no./103 no./103 no./103 Year China India China India China India China India China India 1951 557 361 100 100 1961 666 439 120 122 17.9 19.6 36 45 18 26 1971 837 548 150 152 22.9 22.2 36 41 13 19 1981 989 684 178 189 16.7 22.2 23 39 7 17 Birth and death rates for India are from refs. 1 and 2 for 1951-1961 and from a National Research Council study (Committee on Population and Demography, Panel onIndia, VitalRates inlndial961-1981) (unpublished) for 1961-1981. DecadebirthratesforChina are averagesofthe adjusted values in Fig. 1. Decade death rates for China for 1951-1960 and 1961-1970 are the difference between the adjusted birth rate and the average rate of increase. Population for India is from decennial censuses; for China it is from Aird (3). 89% for India) since 1951; the cumulative growth in China has tality was falling, death rates were very high in comparison with been less, despite lower mortality, because of a greater recent the rates in countries that had become industrialized in the 19th decline in the birth rate. In the early 1950s the fertility rates in or early 20th century. China would have yielded a life-time average of about 5.5 chil- The aggregate performance of the two economies since 1950 dren per woman; in India at about the same time the corre- is hard to compare because the two countries are so different in sponding total fertility rate was about 6.0 or a little higher. By political and economic organization and because of the diffi- the late 1970s the total fertility rate had fallen to 2.5 children per culty of assembling reliable data. Nevertheless, one may judge woman in China and to about 4.9 in India. In China, according that the two countries have remained at roughly comparable to the death rates in the early 1950s the average duration of life overall economic levels. In both, the populations are still >80% at birth was 40-45 years and it rose to about 65 years in the late rural, and in both about 70% of the labor force is in agriculture. 1970s. In India, expectation of life at birth increased from <35 In both, manufacturing output has risen more rapidly than ag- years to nearly 50 years over the same interval. What accounts gregate national production; in both, estimated per capita in- for the similarities and differences in these trends? comes are still very low. When their new national status was attained after World War II, India and China had the economic and demographic char:.
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