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Sunday Times and Behaviour & Attitudes January Opinion Poll 2020

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Sunday Times and Behaviour & Attitudes January Opinion Poll 2020 Sunday Times and Behaviour & Attitudes January Opinion Poll 2020 Prepared by Ian McShane J.1597 1 Technical Appendix 2 Technical Appendix Sample Size Fieldwork Location The sample was stratified As such, the results can be across all constituencies at 125 deemed to be accurate to The results of this opinion locations in the country with within plus or minus 3.3 poll are based upon a individuals selected for percentage points at the 95% representative sample of 923 interview by way of confidence level. Fieldwork eligible Irish voters aged 18 Demographic Quotas (age, was conducted on an in- years+. gender, socio-economic home, face-to-face basis over nd status) in line with Central the period Thursday, 2 th Statistics Office (CSO) and January – Tuesday, 14 market research industry January, 2020. population estimates. 3 Technical Appendix Weighting Party Support Guidelines All aspects of the survey, The subsequent survey Party support levels are including the Party Support results are weighted to reflect subsequently realigned in adjustment factor, are the known demographic accordance with a technical implemented in accordance profile of Irish adults, utilising adjustment factor, designed with the technical and ethical the most recently published to smooth the effects of guidelines set down by the census population estimates extreme highs and lows in Association of Irish Market from the Central Statistics support levels for individual Research Organisations Office (CSO). parties as measured at a single point in time, and (AIMRO) and the European taking variable election day Society of Opinion & Market turnout levels into account. Research (ESOMAR). 4 Charted Summary 5 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Government and Party Leader Satisfaction Levels 2017 2018 2019 2020 11th 12th 8th 8th Apr 9th 6th 11th 12th 7th 19th Jun 12th 12th 11th 16th Feb Mar f/w May Jun July Sept 10th Nov Dec 11th 13th 13th 17th 15th f/w 17th 18th 16th 13th 18th 15th Feb Mar 16th 14th Jun 16th 17th 15th 12th 14th Jan f/w f/w 30th f/w f/w f/w f/w Oct f/w f/w Jan Feb Mar Apr May 31st July Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan f/w 28th Apr May f/w Jul Sept Oct Nov 17th Jan f/w 31st 28th Mar 27th 25th 29th 31st f/w 26th 11th f/w f/w f/w f/w f/w May f/w f/w (f/w f/w f/w f/w 31st Feb f/w f/w 31st f/w f/w f/w f/w Dec f/w 3rd – Jan – Feb – April May Jun- Aug- 2nd – Oct– – 4th – 1st – 6th – 5th – 3rd – – 5th - 6th – 5th – 1st – 6th – 4th – Jan- – 4th – 2nd – May 4th – 5th – 3rd – 1st – f/w 5th 2nd – 16th 8th – 8th 11th –9th – 6th 11th 12th 10th 7th 19th 11th 13th 13th 17th 15th 12th 17th 18th 16th 13th 18th 15th 12th 12th 16th 14th 11th 16th 17th 15th 12th – 17th 14th Jan Feb Marc Apr May June Jul Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 17 17 h 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 The 31% 29% 26% 34% 35% 35% 39% 41% 39% 44% 51% 44% 48% 50% 47% 41% 46% 48% 43% 41% 42% 41% 34% 35% 38% 38% 38% 34% 39% 33% 38% 37% 33% 30% Government Micheál 49% 53% 49% 49% 49% 52% 54% 53% 50% 50% 55% 50% 50% 55% 51% 47% 49% 49% 48% 49% 49% 50% 42% 43% 43% 45% 48% 46% 49% 46% 46% 44% 45% 46% Martin Leo ** 29% 30% 27% 35% 34% 37% 43% 49% 50% 52% 56% 52% 55% 59% 53% 53% 55% 56% 53% 52% 48% 48% 38% 39% 40% 45% 42% 39% 41% 40% 45% 43% 38% 35% Varadkar Brendan 39% 39% 34% 41% 38% 37% 42% 44% 40% 40% 46% 42% 45% 44% 45% 45% 43% 43% 41% 42% 40% 39% 38% 39% 40% 38% 38% 39% 41% 39% 39% 39% 36% 38% Howlin Mary Lou *** 31% 39% 38% 43% 38% 37% 43% 40% 38% 32% 38% 37% 39% 46% 51% 52% 52% 53% 50% 46% 48% 44% 40% 39% 39% 38% 39% 32% 36% 38% 38% 37% 39% 40% McDonald ** Inclusion of Leo Varadkar as Taoiseach ***Inclusion of Mary Lou McDonald as Leader of Sinn Féin Q.1 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the manner in which the government is running the country? Q.2 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Varadkar is doing his job as Taoiseach? Q.3 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Howlin is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party? Q.5 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fail? 6 Q.6 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ms. McDonald is doing her job as leader of Sinn Fein? Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Core Party Support Levels 2017 2018 2019 2020 11th 12th 8th 8th Apr 9th 6th 11th 12th 7th 19th Jun 12th 12th 11th 16th Feb Mar f/w May Jun July Sept 10th Nov Dec 11th 13th 13th 17th 15th f/w 17th 18th 16th 13th 18th 15th Feb Mar 16th 14th Jun 16th 17th 15th 12th 17th Jan f/w f/w 30th f/w f/w f/w f/w Oct f/w f/w Jan Feb Mar Apr May 31st July Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan f/w 28th Apr May f/w Jul Sept Oct Nov Dec 14th f/w 31st 28th Mar 27th 25th 29th 31st f/w 26th 11th f/w f/w f/w f/w f/w May f/w f/w (f/w f/w f/w f/w 31st Feb f/w f/w 31st f/w f/w f/w f/w f/w Jan 3rd – Jan –Feb – – April May Jun- Aug- 2nd – Oct– – 4th – 1st – 6th – 5th – 3rd – – 5th - 6th – 5th – 1st – 6th – 4th – Jan- – 4th – 2nd – May 4th – 5th – 3rd – 1st – 5th – f/w 16th 8th 8th 11th –9th – 6th 11th 12th 10th 7th 19th 11th 13th 13th 17th 15th 12th 17th 18th 16th 13th 18th 15th 12th 12th 16th 14th 11th 16th 17th 15th 12th 17th 2nd – Jan Feb Mar Apr May, June Jul Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Sept Oct Nov Dec 14th Jan 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 Fianna Fáil 21% 27% 23% 20% 21% 22% 22% 18% 19% 23% 19% 19% 17% 20% 17% 16% 16% 15% 18% 20% 19% 21% 20% 18% 17% 22% 21% 22% 22% 22% 18% 17% 19% 21% Fine Gael 19% 15% 18% 21% 23% 22% 23% 26% 23% 25% 25% 25% 27% 26% 24% 22% 23% 27% 24% 23% 21% 23% 21% 22% 24% 22% 21% 17% 19% 20% 21% 20% 19% 14% Labour 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 4% 3% 3% 5% 5% 3% 3% 2% 3% 4% 4% 3% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 4% 2% 3% 4% 3% 2% Sinn Féin 12% 17% 18% 16% 15% 16% 14% 15% 16% 12% 15% 15% 15% 15% 17% 19% 19% 18% 20% 17% 20% 17% 18% 16% 17% 16% 17% 10% 11% 17% 14% 14% 17% 17% Green 1% Party 16% 14% 15% 15% 15% 13% 13% 13% 12% 14% 12% 13% 12% 10% 11% 12% 13% 11% 12% 11% 11% 13% 14% 14% 13% 15% 25% 20% 15% 18% 19% 15% 17% Inde- pendents/ 20% Others Undecided 23% 20% 23% 24% 24% 22% 25% 25% 26% 27% 23% 26% 24% 23% 27% 29% 28% 24% 24% 24% 24% 27% 25% 26% 25% 24% 22% 23% 24% 24% 26% 26% 28% 28% Q.6 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote? 7 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Party Support Levels (Excluding Undecideds - Unadjusted) 2017 2018 2019 2020 11th 12th 8th 8th Apr 9th 6th 11th 12th 7th 19th Jun 12th 11th 16th Feb Mar f/w May Jun July Sept 10th Nov Dec 11th 13th 13th 17th 15th f/w 17th 18th 16th 13th 18th 15th Feb 12th 16th 14th Jun 16th 17th 15th 12th 17th 14th Jan f/w f/w 30th f/w f/w f/w f/w Oct f/w f/w Jan Feb Mar Apr May 31st July Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan f/w Mar Apr May f/w Jul Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan f/w 31st 28th Mar 27th 25th 29th 31st f/w 26th 11th f/w f/w f/w f/w f/w May f/w f/w (f/w f/w f/w f/w 31st 28th f/w f/w 31st f/w f/w f/w f/w f/w f/w 3rd – Jan – Feb – April May Jun- Aug- 2nd – Oct– – 4th – 1st – 6th – 5th – 3rd – – 5th - 6th – 5th – 1st – 6th – 4th – Jan- Feb – 4th – 2nd – May 4th – 5th – 3rd – 1st – 5th – 2nd – 16th 8th – 8th 11th –9th – 6th 11th 12th 10th 7th 19th 11th 13th 13th 17th 15th 12th 17th 18th 16th 13th 18th 15th 12th 12th 16th 14th 11th 16th 17th 15th 12th 17th 14th Jan Feb Mar Apr May, June Jul Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 Fianna 27% 34% 30% 27% 27% 28% 30% 24% 26% 31% 25% 26% 23% 26% 24% 22% 22% 20% 24% 26% 26% 28% 26% 24% 23% 28% 27% 28% 29% 29% 25% 23% 27% 29% Fáil Fine 25% 19% 23% 28% 30% 28% 30% 34% 31% 34% 33% 34% 36% 33% 33% 32% 31% 36% 32% 31% 28% 31% 28% 30% 32% 29% 28% 22% 25% 27% 28% 28% 26% 20% Gael Labour 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 5% 5% 4% 6% 6% 4% 4% 3% 4% 5% 5% 4% 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 4% 5% 2% 4% 6% 4% 3% Sinn 16% 22% 24% 21% 19% 21% 19% 20% 22% 16% 19% 20% 20% 19% 23% 26% 26% 24% 26% 23% 26% 23% 24% 22% 22% 20% 21% 13% 15% 22% 20% 19% 23% 24% Féin Green 2% Party 20% 18% 20% 19% 19% 17% 18% 18% 17% 18% 16% 17% 15% 14% 16% 16% 17% 14% 15% 15% 14% 18% 20% 19% 17% 19% 33% 25% 19% 23% 25% 20% 23% Indepen dent/ 26% Others Q.6 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote? 8 • Predicting election results on the basis of poll data is not an exact science.
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