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This PDF is available from The National Academies Press at http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=13111 Understanding Earth's Deep Past: Lessons for Our Climate Future ISBN Committee on the Importance of Deep-Time Geologic Records for 978-0-309-20915-1 Understanding Climate Change Impacts; National Research Council of the National Academies 212 pages 6 x 9 PAPERBACK (2011) Visit the National Academies Press online and register for... Instant access to free PDF downloads of titles from the NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING INSTITUTE OF MEDICINE NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL 10% off print titles Custom notication of new releases in your eld of interest Special offers and discounts Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the National Academies Press. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Request reprint permission for this book Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Understanding Earth's Deep Past: Lessons for Our Climate Future Committee on the Importance of Deep-Time Geologic Records for Understanding Climate Change Impacts Board on Earth Sciences and Resources Division on Earth and Life Studies THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Understanding Earth's Deep Past: Lessons for Our Climate Future THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Gov- erning Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engi- neering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for ap- propriate balance. This study was supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. EAR-0625247, the U.S. Geological Survey under Award No. 06HQGR0197, and the Chevron Corporation. The opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommenda- tions contained in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation, the U.S. Geological Survey, or the Chevron Corporation. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-20915-1 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-20915-3 Library of Congress Control Number: 2011930581 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet www.nap.edu Cover: Cover design by Michael Dudzik. Copyright 2011 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Understanding Earth's Deep Past: Lessons for Our Climate Future The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal govern- ment on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding en- gineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engi- neering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Insti- tute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sci- ences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal govern- ment. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Acad- emy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering com- munities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Understanding Earth's Deep Past: Lessons for Our Climate Future Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Understanding Earth's Deep Past: Lessons for Our Climate Future COMMITTEE ON THE IMPORTANCE OF DEEP-TIME GEOLOGIC RECORDS FOR UNDERSTANDING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ISABEL P. MONTAÑEZ, Chair (2010-2011), University of California, Davis RICHARD D. NORRIS, Chair (2007-2009), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, San Diego, California THOMAS ALGEO, University of Cincinnati, Ohio MARK A. CHANDLER, Columbia University, New York KIRK R. JOHNSON, Denver Museum of Nature and Science, Colorado MARTIN J. KENNEDY, University of Adelaide, South Australia DENNIS V. KENT, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway JEFFREY T. KIEHL, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado LEE R. KUMP, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park A. CHRISTINA RAVELO, University of California, Santa Cruz KARL K. TUREKIAN, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut Liaison from the Board on Earth Sciences and Resources KATHERINE H. FREEMAN, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park National Research Council Staff DAVID A. FEARY, Study Director NICHOLAS D. ROGERS, Research Associate JENNIFER T. ESTEP, Financial and Administrative Associate COURTNEY R. GIBBS, Program Associate ERIC J. EDKIN, Senior Program Assistant v Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Understanding Earth's Deep Past: Lessons for Our Climate Future BOARD ON EARTH SCIENCES AND RESOURCES CORALE L. BRIERLEY, Chair, Brierley Consultancy LLC, Denver, Colorado KEITH C. CLARKE, University of California, Santa Barbara DAVID J. COWEN, University of South Carolina, Columbia WILLIAM E. DIETRICH, University of California, Berkeley ROGER M. DOWNS, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park JEFF DOZIER, University of California, Santa Barbara WILLIAM. L. GRAF, University of South Carolina, Columbia RUSSELL J. HEMLEY, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Washington, D.C. MURRAY W. HITZMAN, Colorado School of Mines, Golden EDWARD KAVAZANJIAN, Jr., Arizona State University, Tempe ROBERT B. McMASTER, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis M. MEGHAN MILLER, UNAVCO, Inc., Boulder, Colorado ISABEL P. MONTAÑEZ, University of California, Davis CLAUDIA INÉS MORA, Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico BRIJ M. MOUDGIL, University of Florida, Gainesville CLAYTON R. NICHOLS, Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (retired), Ocean Park, Washington HENRY N. POLLACK, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor JOAQUIN RUIZ, University of Arizona, Tucson PETER M. SHEARER, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla REGINAL SPILLER, Allied Energy, Texas RUSSELL E. STANDS-OVER-BULL, Anadarko Petroleum Corporation, Billings, Montana TERRY C. WALLACE, Jr., Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico National Research Council Staff ANTHONY R. De SOUZA, Director ELIZABETH A. EIDE, Senior Program Officer DAVID A. FEARY, Senior Program Officer ANNE M. LINN, Senior Program Officer MARK D. LANGE, Program Officer SAMMANTHA L. MAGSINO, Program Officer JENNIFER T. ESTEP, Financial and Administrative Associate NICHOLAS D. ROGERS, Financial and Research Associate COURTNEY R. GIBBS, Program Associate JASON R. ORTEGO, Research Associate ERIC J. EDKIN, Senior Program Assistant CHANDA IJAMES, Program Assistant vi Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Understanding Earth's Deep Past: Lessons for Our Climate Future Preface The drive to better understand how Earth’s climate has responded to natural and anthropogenic forcing over the geologically recent past has resulted in a plethora of observational and modeling paleoclimate studies seeking to understand climate dynamics associated with glacial and inter- glacial cyclicity. From these near-time paleoclimate studies the scientific community has developed a refined understanding of the complex—and often nonlinear—dynamics of the Earth’s climate system and has delin- eated an array of environmental
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