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The Population Trajectories of Bangladesh and West Bengal During the Twentieth Century: a Comparative Study

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The Population Trajectories of Bangladesh and West Bengal During the Twentieth Century: a Comparative Study The London School of Economics and Political Science The Population Trajectories of Bangladesh and West Bengal During the Twentieth Century: A Comparative Study Nahid Kamal A thesis submitted to the Department of Population Studies of the London School of Economics for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy 2009 UMI Number: U615290 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Dissertation Publishing UMI U615290 Published by ProQuest LLC 2014. Copyright in the Dissertation held by the Author. Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest LLC 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 TK£S£S F 1osv .gWNBbU < '■M'lf'fli •■$ and fioBhoffi't Science Declaration I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others (in which case the extent of any work carried out jointly by me and any other person is clearly identified in it). The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. The thesis may not be reproduced without the prior written consent of the author. I warrant that this authorization does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. 2 Abstract This study traces the demographic evolution in present-day Bangladesh and West Bengal, which together comprised the former province of Bengal in British India. It presents time-trend analysis of vital rates and their proximate as well as indirect determinants using registration, census and survey data for pre and post-Partition Bengal. Evidence suggests that although the two wings were historically under the same provincial government, there were significant differences in their demographic profiles, arising from differences in occupational structure, ongoing ecological changes, religion, and in the extent of development efforts. These long-term historical disparities set the course of subsequent demography and explain the contemporary fertility and mortality differentials between Bangladesh and West Bengal. Statistical analysis of survey data suggests that a higher age at marriage in West Bengal coupled with greater levels of healthcare utilization in the state have contributed to a more favourable health situation relative to Bangladesh. The culture in West Bengal appears to be more conducive to utilization of healthcare which has been shaped by a long history of exposure to western influences and to social movements, among other considerations. It has also facilitated the process of fertility transition in West Bengal which plausibly initiated during the late 1950s. For Bangladesh, the study maintains that the synergy created by a host of factors contributed to the remarkably rapid decline in fertility during the 1980s. It is pointed out that the plateauing in the fertility rate in the country since the 1990s is testament to the fact that a strong family planning programme alone cannot complete a demographic transition. This study concludes that the culmination of ongoing socio­ economic processes over the course of the twentieth century has provided the backdrop for the demographic transition in present-day Bangladesh and West Bengal. 3 Acknowledgements There has been a long time between starting and finishing this dissertation. I could not have crossed the final finishing line without the support of many individuals. I have my primary supervisor, Professor Tim Dyson, to thank profoundly for his sound critiques, understanding, unfaltering support and most of all for not giving up on me. I am deeply grateful to Professor Mike Murphy for taking me on at a very late stage in order to help me with the statistics. I am thankful for his academic guidance and remarkable patience. Professor Jane Falkingham, who was my co-supervisor when I first started, continued to be a source of support and inspiration. I have also benefited from comments from Dr Arjan Gjonca. This research work would not have been possible without a departmental award from the LSE. I am thankful to various libraries for their cooperation: the UPS, Mumbai; Secretariat Library, Kolkata; ICDDRB library, Dhaka; South Asian library at University of Berkeley, California and of course the LSE. I acknowledge my gratitude to Dr Arup Maharatna for his enthusiasm, encouragement and support at every stage. I have friends at the LSE, both old and new, to thank profusely. Among the old friends are Amani, Anne, Jyant, Lee and Mukta - their resilience was exemplary. Athina, Bab, Charitini, Gaby, Georgina, Harald, Markus, Melody, Nisrine and Victoria - I could not have completed the dissertation without the friendship, affection, support and encouragement of these extraordinary individuals. A special thanks to ‘my girls’ who went out of their way to help me get through the hard times and made my last two years at the LSE an absolute pleasure and joy. I truly admire Gaby’s strength, wittiness, positivism, and phenomenal acumen in statistics. She was my accomplice and perfect travel companion. Between me and insanity stood Nisrine during the final weeks before submission! She was my guardian angel, playing the role of a confidante, mentor and mother. She epitomizes tenacity, charm, and joie de vivre. I am thankful to Mr Adam Sandelson at the TLC who provided me with immense support to complete the PhD journey. Thanks also to Dr Ole Naidoo for being available on demand. Finally, my profound gratitude to my parents who made many sacrifices and supported me in every way possible in order to see me come this far. 4 Abbreviations ADP Annual Development Programme ANC Ante-natal care ANM Auxiliary Nurse Midwife ASFR Age Specific Fertility Rates BBS Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics BDHS Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey BRAC Bangladesh Rural Advancement Committee CBR Crude Birth Rate CDR Crude Death Rate CPI-M Communist Party of India (Marxist) CPR Contraceptive Prevalence Rate CWR Child Woman Ratio DPD Development and Planning Department (West Bengal) EB East Bengal EPI Expanded Programme on Immunization ECPR Effective Couple Protection Rate FPP Family Planning Programme FWA Family Welfare Assistant FWP Family Welfare Programme FYP Five Year Plan GFR General Fertility Rate GNP Gross National Product HCR Head Count Ratio HSPC Health and Population Sector Programme ICDDRB International Centre for Diarrhoeal Diseases Research, Bangladesh IMR Infant Mortality Rate HDI Human Development Index MMR Maternal Mortality Ratio MoHFW Ministry of Health and Family Welfare NFHS National Family and Health Survey NGO Non-government Sector 5 NIS National Impact Survey NSS National Sample Survey ORG Operations Research Group ORS Oral Rehydration Solution PHC Primary Health Centre/Primary Health Care RH Reproductive Health SDP State Domestic Product SRS Sample Registration System SEI Socio-economic index SC Schedule Caste ST Schedule Tribe SES Socio-economic status TB Tuberculosis TBA Traditional Birth Attendant TFR Total Fertility Rate THC Thana Health Complex TT Tetanus Toxoid VR Vital Registration WB West Bengal 6 Table of Contents Acknowledgements .......................................................................................................................... 4 Abbreviations ....................................................... 5 List of tables .................................................................................................................................... 10 List of Figures ................................................................................................................................. 13 1 Chapter 1: INTRODUCTION AND HISTORICAL BACKGROUND..........................14 1.1 Outline of existing comparative work on Bengal’s demography ................................. 18 1.2 The importance of studying Bengal ...............................................................................20 1.2.1 The significance of studying the twentieth century 23 1.3 History of Bengal ............................................................................................................ 24 1.3.1 Religious history 24 1.3.2 Background on pre-nineteenth century Bengal 29 1.3.3 Background on post-nineteenth century Bengal 31 1.4 The Structure of the dissertation ....................................................................................36 2 Chapter 2: DATA, METHODS AND ANALYSIS..........................................................42 2.1 Data on pre-Partition Bengal: ........................................................................................ 44 2.1.1 Territorial changes 45 2.1.2 Under-registration of vital rates in pre-Partition Bengal 48 Growth Balance method to correct for under-registration of deaths .............................48 Reverse Survival method to correct for under-registration of births .............................49 2.2 Data for post-Partition East and West Bengal .............................................................. 51 2.2.1 Data sources for post-1947 West Bengal 52 2.2.2 Data sources for post -1947
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