Annual Scientific Report 2001

Director's Message

The past year has been one of exceptional activity and accomplishment, and while we share the country's grief and concern about the events of September 11, we also want to acknowledge the progress that we have made at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. We have completed an ambitious, far-reaching strategic plan for future research directions and initiated several of the highest priority activities outlined in that plan. We have been able to add to our human capital through a number of new hires in the early career scientist ranks. We have also been able to invest in two new community facilities through NSF's support. I have inaugurated an Advisory Council of preeminent scientists, educators, industry leaders and policy makers to provide advice and input on future directions for the Center. And at the end of this year, we successfully completed the NSF's review of our research programs, our outreach and support to the atmospheric sciences community, and our management. I would like to touch briefly on all of these topics below. I encourage you to read more about all of these activities in the pages below to get a sense of the full year we have just completed.

NCAR Strategic Plan

The NCAR Strategic Plan, NCAR as an Integrator, has been the work of the past 15 months. We developed a set of statements that describe our mission, vision, values and goals for the next decade, and using a 'grass roots', inclusive process, we engaged all of NCAR's scientific staff and many external collaborators in a reevaluation of directions and priorities. Participation by the NCAR scientific staff was extensive, and they, along with NCAR and UCAR management, the National Science Foundation and the UCAR Board of Trustees, reviewed various stages of the document as it progressed. The plan was also the topic of discussion at this year's UCAR Members' meeting during a forum that further identified opportunities for collaborations between NCAR and the university community. The plan can be accessed via the following link: http://www.ncar.ucar.edu/stratplan.

Scientist I Hires

We initiated a program to broaden and balance the demographics of NCAR's scientific staff with the addition of a number of early career scientists this past year. Our goals were to expand the intellectual capacity of the institution and to address diversity of ideas, approaches and background in our scientific staff. Through a national, competitive selection process headed by Al Cooper of the

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Advanced Study Program, over 170 applications for what were to originally be four positions were received. We felt that the caliber of the finalists was so exceptional that we extended offers to many more than originally planned. A total of nine new Scientist I's were hired; four of them are women. The research interests of our new scientists mesh extremely well with the initiatives outlined in our Strategic Plan, and they will complement and expand our efforts in a number of ways. A full description of the new NCAR Early Career Scientists and their interests can be found in a recent Staff Notes article: http://www.ucar.edu/communications/staffnotes/0108/future.html. Most of them will have arrived by the end of Fiscal Year 2001. We plan to begin a second round of hiring early in FY2002.

High Altitude Aircraft and Supercomputing

As the National Center, we have the responsibility to maintain the highest caliber of research tools and facilities to accelerate progress in our science. This year, NCAR acquired a new Advanced Research Computing System (ARCS) that doubled the Center's computing capacity and will quadruple it over the period of the acquisition. NCAR also received word that the High- Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER) will be funded in 2002, allowing us to procure the airframe and begin modifications for the research community.

The ARCS system will provide a phased introduction of new computational, storage, and communications technologies through the life of the contract. This will allow NCAR's Scientific Computing Division to maintain a stable, state-of- the-art production facility for the next three to five years. More on this acquisition can be found at http://www.scd.ucar.edu/docs/asr2001/arcs.html.

The HIAPER aircraft will allow researchers to fly into the stratosphere and a quarter of the way around the earth, allowing scientists to study the upper troposphere, the tropopause region, and the lower stratosphere over much of the planet. Very few existing or planned research aircraft have the combination of HIAPER's range, payload, and altitude. A wide range of atmospheric scientists, from chemists to cloud physicists to climate modelers, need HIAPER's capabilities to advance their understanding of the climate system. Please look at the schematic of the proposed aircraft at http://www.atd.ucar.edu/dir_off/asr01/ASR01highlights.html.

NSF Review of NCAR Programs and UCAR/NCAR Management

As part of the management agreement between NSF and UCAR, all of NCAR's programs are reviewed on a 5-year cycle. Beginning in September and ending in November 2001, eight separate panels held on-site reviews of NCAR's divisions and programs (with the exception of the Research Applications Program which was reviewed as part of the management review). The panels considered the written materials prepared for them, anonymous mail reviews, and presentations by divisional staff on the accomplishments and plans for their scientific and technical programs.

This review process is beneficial both to the NCAR programs, giving staff the opportunity to present and describe their activities, and to NSF in exercising their oversight responsibilities. The reports by the individual panels provide

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evaluations of past performance and suggestions for the future. The panels found NCAR's programs to be uniformly excellent, productive, and vigorous. We are extremely pleased with this outcome, and will work to incorporate the thoughtful comments to extend and enhance the value of our programs. The management review was highly complimentary of the Strategic Plan and the NSF panel challenged us to take the national center concept "to a new level".

In all, this has been an exciting and rewarding year, and I believe that the Scientific Report for 2001 reflects this. I encourage you to explore the many project descriptions and their links, to learn more about NCAR's people, programs and accomplishments.

Tim Killeen Director

Director's Message | Highlights | Publications | Educational Activities

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DIRECTOR'S MESSAGE William A. Cooper

The ASP mission, broadly defined, is to help NCAR (and the scientific communities it serves) prepare for the future. We work in support of other NCAR units to encourage the development of young scientists in the field of atmospheric science, to direct attention to timely scientific areas needing special emphasis, to help organize new science initiatives, to support interactions with universities, and to promote continuing education at NCAR. The most important component of our program is the postdoctoral fellowship program, which has been a part of NCAR for thirty-seven years and has brought more than 380 postdoctoral scientists to NCAR. Each year between 10 and 15 new postdoctoral scientists come to NCAR, usually for two-year appointments. They conduct their research in collaboration with NCAR scientists and work in all areas in which NCAR is involved. NCAR benefits from continuous contact with some of the brightest and most promising young scientists in our field and from the lasting associations that result. The postdoctoral scientists benefit from the opportunity to work with NCAR scientists, from exposure to the breadth of science at NCAR, and from the independence they are encouraged to develop. Many former fellows now occupy prominent positions at UCAR universities or at NCAR, and many present collaborations between NCAR and university scientists derive from associations that developed in the postdoctoral program. The ASP also promotes the examination of research areas that merit special emphasis, either because they are particularly timely or because they seem under-emphasized relative to their importance. This is accomplished primarily by convening workshops and supporting appropriate visitors. As part of this effort, ASP hosts an annual summertime colloquium that brings graduate students to NCAR for an intensive set of lectures presented by selected scientists from within and outside NCAR. Last summer the topic was "The Tropical Atmosphere and Oceans," organized by University of Colorado scientists Peter Webster and Andrew Moore. ASP is also hosting, with MMM and CGD, a long-term visit by Jeff Anderson of NOAA/GFDL, who is working to develop tools for data assimilation that can have wide applicability in atmospheric and related science. Another function of the ASP is to promote new science initiatives and programs that do not have a natural home in any one of the NCAR divisions. The Geophysical Turbulence Program seeks to represent interests in turbulence throughout NCAR. This very active program normally hosts an annual workshop, sponsors a seminar series, and in other ways helps coordinate and promote turbulence research at NCAR. We are also the administrative home for the NCAR Scientist Assembly and the Early Career Scientist Assembly. The ASP also includes: the NCAR Graduate Fellowship Program, which provides a few opportunities for graduate students to conduct Ph.D. research projects at NCAR in collaboration with NCAR scientists; some Senior Research Associates (with the notable addition in the past year of Jerry Mahlman from NOAA/GFDL); and several seminar series including the NCAR-wide "Showcase Seminars" that highlight significant advances at NCAR and the "Thompson Lectures" that bring prominent scientists to NCAR to interact with the postdoctoral fellows. For more information on the ASP mission and plans, see the ASP Strategic Plan.

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Research Summaries

To illustrate the nature and scope of the research conducted by ASP personnel, short descriptions of individual research projects are included in this section. The ASP seeks to maintain involvement in the broad range of research at NCAR. Almost all of these research projects have been conducted in collaboration with scientists in other divisions and programs, and in many cases more thematic descriptions of the research programs are available in the reports of those divisions and programs. Where appropriate, these descriptions are linked to those other sections of the Annual Scientific Report to indicate how these research projects contribute to the broader research program at NCAR. https://web.archive.org/web/20161216014539/http://www.asp.ucar.edu/asr2001/[12/23/2016 2:12:50 PM] ASP Annual Scientific Report 2001

Postdoctoral Fellows

David Baker, in collaboration with Jorge Sarmiento (Princeton University) and Philippe Peylin (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, France), used a least-squares inversion approach to obtain new estimates of regional CO2 fluxes into and out of the atmosphere. He explored the sensitivity of the estimates to time discretization methods, transport models, and spatial resolution. The flux results for the conterminous United States were then extracted from this study and compared to process- and inventory-based estimates of the same fluxes. The two approaches gave consistent results, resolving a long-standing discrepancy between the results of the `top-down' atmospheric approach and the `bottom-up' process model-based approach, at least for the U.S. [Cf. Pacala et al., 2001.] Baker has also participated in the TransCom 3 atmospheric tracer transport model intercomparison project, generating forward model fields for the annual mean and time-dependent portions of the CO2 experiment, as well as for the applied potential oxygen (APO) experiment. The time-dependent CO2 runs for the eight participating models have been used in a fully time-dependent CO2 flux inversion (solving for both the seasonal and interannual variability) to assess the magnitude of transport model error in the estimated fluxes. Preliminary results suggest that transport error has a great impact on the long-term mean flux estimate for each region, but a lesser impact on the variability -- a result that will allow the variability estimates to be used in determining the key physical processes driving the fluxes. Baker also used a Kalman-filter approach to estimate time- varying sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2, and he documented the advantages of this approach over the batch estimation approach used previously. The Kalman filter calculates the spreading out of the forward model pulses more accurately and more efficiently, and so can use the appropriate reanalyzed winds rather than climatological winds. Baker has worked with Lori Bruhwiler (NOAA/CMDL) to implement this Kalman filter approach and to show that it improves the flux results.

Patrick Chuang developed an experiment to measure the time scale for condensational growth of aerosol particles. It has been hypothesized that some particles are coated with an organic film that inhibits the rate of water uptake by these particles. If such particles do exist, they would influence the growth rates of cloud droplets and so affect the way anthropogenic aerosols affect climate change. Measurements from a short field campaign in Mexico City, where organic aerosols are present in high concentration, were analyzed to determine if such aerosols indeed led to inhibited growth rates. Collaborators included Darrel Baumgardner (Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, UNAM), Mike Hannigan (University of Denver), Graciela Raga (UNAM), and Cristina Facchini and Sandro Fuzzi (Institute of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Italy). The findings from these studies indicate that, at least in the conditions studied, such particles may be rare.

David Dowell, collaborating with Howard Bluestein (University of Oklahoma), completed a study of cyclic tornadogenesis in a storm that was scanned by the ELDORA airborne radar during the Verification of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment (VORTEX-95). In a collaborative project with Joshua Wurman (University of Oklahoma), Dowell also quantified the magnitude of measurement error in Doppler velocity measurements of tornadoes that results from centrifuging of radar scatterers by the tornado. Dowell also initiated a collaborative project with Juanzhen Sun (MMM), Andrew Crook (MMM), and Louis Wicker (National Severe Storms Laboratory) to use data assimilation methods for retrieving wind and buoyancy in thunderstorms. Initial experiments are being conducted with simple methods that incorporate a 2-D version of the COllaborative Model for Multiscale Atmospheric Simulation (COMMAS) developed by Wicker, and with the 4DVAR system (VDRAS) developed by Sun.

Craig Epifanio developed a suite of numerical tools aimed at improving our understanding of stratified flow past topography. Working with Rich Rotunno (MMM), Epifanio designed and implemented a general methodology for inverting three-dimensional (3D) vorticity fields in irregularly shaped domains so as to obtain the velocity distributions induced by the vorticity. The researchers have combined this tool with idealized numerical simulations of flow over topography in an effort to update and extend their previous theories of lee wake and vortex formation in stratified flows. Epifanio has also worked with Dave Muraki (Simon Fraser University) to develop a high-accuracy semi-analytic solver for linear topographic waves at intermediate Rossby numbers. Their approach uses numerical Fourier integration combined with an asymptotic method designed to remove problematic singularities from the Fourier inversion integrals. This work extends the previous two-dimensional results of Muraki (2001) to the case of 3D flows over arbitrary topography. Desingularized linear solutions for flows at various Rossby numbers were presented at the Ninth Mesoscale Conference in Ft. Lauderdale, FL.

Ian Faloona studied the chemistry and dynamics of the planetary boundary layer with the aid of fast chemical instrumentation. With the resources of the Research Aviation Facility and in collaboration with Drs. Teresa Campos (ACD/ATD) and Donald Lenschow (MMM/ATD), he built a fast chemiluminescence instrument to measure ambient ozone and deployed it on the NCAR C-130 research aircraft in two field projects during fiscal year 2001. In ACE-Asia (Aerosol Characterization Experiment, http://saga.pmel.noaa.gov/aceasia/) looking at pollution outflow from Asia, he studied the deposition of ozone to the ocean surface and derived empirical exchange rates between the marine boundary layer and the free troposphere. In DYCOMS-II (Dynamics and Chemistry of Marine Stratocumulus, http://www.atmos.ucla.edu/~bstevens/dycoms/dycoms.html) , the fast ozone data were used to investigate the mixing of trace gases in the cloud capped marine boundary layer and to measure the rate of turbulent entrainment at the cloud top.

Bryan Fong constructed numerical model equilibrium conditions that capture the qualitative physical characteristics of observed solar prominences, and he used those equilibrium conditions to show that prominences can become linearly unstable to gravity-driven balooning modes at plasma parameters typical of observed prominences. Fong has also collaborated with Boon Chye Low and Yuhong Fan (HAO) to produce global solar coronal equilibria relevant to helmet streamers and coronal mass ejections.

Andrew Gettelman undertook a study of ways in which information is exchanged among researchers outside of industrialized countries. His study, based on a survey and personal interviews, is aimed at developing recommendations that can be used to alleviate barriers to communication with scientists in such countries and can also provide better flow of information from them to "mainstream" scientists. Activities in FY2001 concentrated on establishing the case for this study and developing the research plan. Gettelman also completed a characterization of the impact of convection on the tropopause region, and documented evidence that convective available potential energy shows increasing trends in tropical regions.

Alessandra Giannini used ensembles of integrations of the NCAR and NASA Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) atmospheric general circulation models, spanning 45 years or more, to quantify the potential predictability of rainfall variability in the Tropical Atlantic. This study, conducted collaboratively with R. Saravanan (CGD) and Ping Chang (Texas A&M), compared the abilities of the models to reproduce the observed rainfall variability in the Northeast region of Brazil to their performance in the Caribbean basin. The skill of these models, as of many others, in reproducing the interannual variability of rainfall in Northeast Brazil is high. This is true regardless of the phase of ENSO (warm, cold or neutral) and regardless of the sign of sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Atlantic basin, the two climate patterns relevant to this region's variability. Conversely, the overall modest skill in reproducing Caribbean rainfall variability is greatly improved during ENSO years, especially during the latter half of the rainy season (August-October).

Sabine Goeke investigated the ability of polarimetric radar to detect properties of snow and ice particles. Fundamental factors governing the growth of ice particles in clouds by vapor deposition, riming and aggregation are known from theory and from laboratory experiments. Yet the full complexity of ice particle growth in clouds remains elusive because of difficulties in predicting and observing cloud composition and conditions at adequate spatial and temporal scales. Polarimetric radars have good spatial and temporal coverage, and several studies have shown that polarimetric observables may be used to identify snow and ice particles. Nevertheless the utility of polarimetric radar depends critically on the correct interpretation of the data in terms of the fundamental quantities of interest and on the verification of that interpretation. Goeke compared corresponding measurements from the NCAR S-POL radar and from the NCAR Electra research aircraft, both operating in the Mesoscale Alpine Experiment (MAP), and assessed the ability of the polarimetric variables to characterize the observed properties of the hydrometeors.

Paul Harasti worked to refine, develop, verify and implement several single-Doppler radar analysis methods for Tropical Cyclones. The methods were originally formulated for use with Weather Surveillance Radar-88 Doppler (WSR-88D) full resolution digital data (Archive II). However, owing to the lack of real-time access to this data, Harasti took the lead role in adapting the methods for use with real-time WSR-88D imagery data (Archive IV). Five different methods were applied to Archive II and Archive IV data from Hurricanes Bret (1999) and Debby (2000). All methods performed well in post storm analyses of Archive II and IV data of Hurricane Bret (1999). A combination of a method based on Principal Component Analysis (developed by Harasti) and the ground-based velocity track display (GBVTD) method of Wen-Chau Lee (NCAR/ATD) provided the best real-time wind analysis of Archive IV data from Hurricane Debby (2000). When applied to Tropical Storm Barry (2001), the GBVTD method did not perform as well; however, Harasti subsequently improved upon these results by identifying the source of the problem and modifying the GBVTD algorithm.

Thomas Karl used Proton-Transfer-Reaction Mass Spectrometry (PTR-MS) in three FY2001 field campaigns to measure trace-gas concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). For compounds having proton affinities higher than 165.2 kcal/mol, he achieved a detection limit of 10 pptv. In the Mauna Loa Spring Intensive (February-April 2001), he collaborated with David Hoffmann and Russell Schnell (NOAA CMDL) and with Werner Lindiger (University of Innsbruck, Austria) to capture distinct VOC signatures from polluted Asian air masses flowing across the Pacific. Some of these VOCs, such as acetonitrile, will help to assess various sources of CO, e.g. biomass burning. Together with detailed back trajectory analysis the obtained data set are being used to test existing emission inventories for CO currently applied in global atmospheric chemistry models. Since ambient concentration measurements of methanol are still very scarce, the MLO dataset will also complement current efforts of a global methanol budget. Two additional flux studies (conducted at the Niwot Ridge Alpine Forest site, Colorado, and at the Prophet Ameriflux site, Michigan) focused on integrating a disjunct sampling system with the PTR-MS technique and assessing its ability for long term VOC flux measurements. The flux study in Michigan, conducted in collaboration with Alex Guenther (ACD), Ray Fall and Abigale Curtis (University of Colorado), Mary Anne Carroll (University of Michigan), Christoph Spirig (ETH Zurich), Margareth Pippin (NASA) and Barkley Sive (Central Michigan University), also presents the first attempt to quantify the biogenic VOC release in the late season and to investigate the impact of senescing vegetation on the global biogenic VOC budget. The data are being used to guidelines and protocols for future long term eddy covariance measurements of biogenic VOCs.

Todd Lane collaborated with Terry Clark (MMM) to investigate the generation of gravity waves by the convective boundary layer. In this study, both the scale selection of the gravity waves and their subsequent feedback on the horizontal scale of the boundary layer thermals were examined. It was found that environmental wind shear plays a principal role in selecting the scale of both the gravity waves and the convective thermals. This increased understanding of scale selection can be used to further understand scales of favorable development and initiation of convective storms. In collaboration with Terry Clark (MMM) and Robert Sharman (RAP), Lane also completed a case study of a "near cloud" turbulence encounter, where a commercial aircraft encountered severe turbulence while flying close to a developing thunderstorm. Both realistic and idealized numerical modeling of this convective event were completed at very high numerical resolution. This study showed, among other things, that turbulence can be generated both close to convective clouds and in the far-field, owing its existence to gravity wave breaking and cloud-induced shear instabilities. Results from this study may be used to provide more accurate guidelines for turbulence avoidance and prediction. Finally, in collaboration with Michael Reeder and Fiona Guest (Monash University, Australia), Lane examined radiosonde data from the Maritime Continent Thunderstorm Experiment for signatures of thunderstorm-generated gravity waves. Measures of wave activity derived from these data were compared favorably to numerical model calculations. This comparison provides added confidence in current state-of-the-art cloud-resolving model studies of gravity wave generation by deep convection.

Anita Layton focussed on developing numerical methods for solving equations arising in global atmospheric models. One of her projects was to develop numerical methods, based on the cubic spline collocation method, for the shallow water equations in spherical coordinates. Currently, the most popular method used in global meteorological applications is the spectral transform method, which yields high-order solutions and gives rise to elliptic equations that are computationally inexpensive to solve. However, spectral methods also give rise to dense matrices and the spectral transform method requires Legendre transforms, which have a computational complexity of order N3. On the other hand, finite element methods have more potential for parallelism and give rise to reasonably scalable parallel implementations. Therefore, high-order finite element methods, such as the cubic spline collocation method, may be a viable alternative to the spectral transform method. In another one of her projects at NCAR, Anita worked with William Spotz (SCD, now at Sandia National Laboratories) to study the possibility of replacing the popular spectral transform method with the double Fourier method. The method resides in spectral space, and transforms to grid space only for nonlinear terms. This approach minimizes the number of transposes required and thus minimizes the required inter- processor communication. Compared to the standard spectral transform method, the double Fourier method requires an equally spaced latitude grid instead of a Gauss distribution and utilizes fast Fourier Transforms (FFTs) in the latitudinal direction rather than the more expensive associated Legendre transforms.

Arturo Lopez Ariste extended his previous study of the transfer of polarized radiation through the solar atmosphere via the development of new techniques for the diagnosis of solar magnetic fields. By applying new inversion techniques from the field of information technology, he developed pattern recognition techniques that permit determination of the solar magnetic field from polarimetric measurements. In this work he collaborated with David Rees (CSIRO, Australia), a former solar physicist who is now an expert in recognition programs for the human face. The main result of this project is a new code, developed with Hector Socas-Navarro (HAO), that determines magnetic fields 60 times faster than previous code. This will make it possible to process the large amount of data coming from the solar telescopes in quasi-real time. Lopez Ariste has also applied these tools to solar observations, using mainly the new French-Italian solar telescope THEMIS in the Canary Islands (Spain) in collaboration with the Solar Department (DASOP) of the Observatoire de Paris and with the Instituto de Astrofisica de Canarias (IAC). The first-ever observation of linear polarization in umbral flashes was made in May 2000 in collaboration with Hector Socas-Navarro, Javier Trujillo Bueno (IAC) and Guillaume Molodij (THEMIS and DASOP). This observation is changing drastically our view of the topology of the sunspots. Also in collaboration with Meir Semel (DASOP) and Frederic Paletou (THEMIS and Observatoire de la Cote d'Azur) he obtained the first snapshot polarization measurements of the He D3 line in prominences, the results of which are still under analysis.

Eric Maloney, collaborating with Jeffrey Kiehl (CGD), studied the interactions between intraseasonal convection and intraseasonal sea surface temperatures over the east Pacific Ocean during Northern Hemisphere summer. He used both observational data and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model version 3 to understand these interactions. Important links between variations in sea surface temperature and intraseasonal convection in the east Pacific have been established as a result of this research. Maloney also worked independently on a project to examine the sensitivity of general circulation model convective variability to assumptions made in the parameterization of convection.

Daniel Marsh, in collaboration with James Russell III (Hampton University), analyzed nitric oxide (NO) observations from the Halogen Occultation Experiment to study what was previously believed to be anomalous differences seen between sunrise and sunset observations. It was proposed that the sunrise/sunset differences are the result of perturbations induced by the migrating diurnal tide. This was confirmed by a later study, with Ray Roble (HAO), using the TIME-GCM (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Exosphere Global Circulation Model), in which tidal vertical motions could explain the factor of two changes over twelve hours observed in equatorial NO mixing ratios.

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Lower Themospheric Nitric Oxide: TIME-GCM simulations of perturbations to nitric oxide (left) and vertical wind (cm/s) (right). Upper panels are at approximately sunrise, and lower panels are at approximately sunset.

The existence of a tertiary ozone maximum:

In collaboration with Anne Smith (ACD), Guy Brasseur (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology and ACD), Martin Kaufmann and Klaus Grossmann (Wuppertal University), Marsh also used modeling and observations to demonstrate the existence of a tertiary ozone maximum located in the middle mesosphere. They found that there is a local maximum in ozone at approximately 72 km altitude, at latitudes just equatorward of the polar night terminator. Model analysis revealed that the maximum is the result of a decrease in atomic oxygen loss via catalytic cycles involving odd-hydrogen species& In the middle mesosphere, at high latitudes, the atmosphere becomes optically thick to ultra-violet radiation at wavelengths below 185 nm. Since photolysis of water vapor is the primary source of odd-hydrogen, reduced ultra-violet radiation results in less odd-hydrogen and consequently lower oxygen loss rates.

Modeled ozone mixing ratio (ppmv) for August 15 at midnight local time. Dashed line indicates altitude at which noontime water vapor photolysis rates drop to 1/e of their maximum.

Scott McIntosh focused on the interpretation, and understanding, of upward propagating waves in the solar chromosphere. Through novel analysis techniques applied to a series of high spatial and temporal resolution datasets acquired simultaneously by the ESA/NASA SoHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) and NASA TraCE (Transition Region and Coronal Explorer) spacecraft, he has studied the passage of these waves through many scale heights in the solar atmosphere. By far the most significant result reached concerns a quantitative description of the influence of the Sun's primordial magnetic field on these wave motions as they propagate upwards. This discovery may yield very important clues to the nature of the heating mechanism present in the Sun's chromosphere and corona. In this work, he has collaborated with Thomas Bogdan, Philip Judge, and Bruce Lites of the HAO as well as with Paul Cally (Monash University, Australia), Mats Carlsson, Viggo Hansteen and Cvolin Rosenthal (University of Oslo, Norway), Ted Tarbell (Lockheed Martin), and Jack Ireland and Bernhard Fleck (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center).

Mark Miesch used a parallel, pseudo-spectral code (which solves the three-dimensional, nonlinear equations of fluid motion in a thin spherical shell) to study stably-stratified turbulence in the Solar tachocline. These studies have focused on angular momentum transport by stably- stratified turbulence. Decaying and forced turbulence can both be described in terms of a vortical Rossby-wave component and a divergent, gravity-wave component. It has long been known that nonlinear interactions between Rossby wave modes tend to produce large-scale velocity structures from smaller-scale fluctuations, requiring an upscale kinetic energy transfer very different from the downscale transfer characteristic of three-dimensional turbulence. The decaying simulations demonstrate that nonlinear interactions among gravity wave modes can also produce upscale transfer when the stable stratification is strong. Randomly forced simulations with imposed shear have provided the most insight into turbulent angular momentum transport. Results indicate that stably stratified turbulence in thin spherical shells tends to produce down-gradient latitudinal transport of angular momentum but counter-gradient radial transport. Such transport has important implications for the structure and dynamics of the solar tachocline as well as for the angular momentum coupling between the tachocline, the overlying convective envelope, and the deep solar interior. These simulations have not included magnetic fields, but this represents a promising avenue for future research. Magnetic stresses could substantially alter the angular momentum transport and studying the interaction between the field an the flow could provide substantial insight into the operation of the solar dynamo.

J. Keith Moore developed a marine ecosystem model suitable for incorporation into the CCSM for use in climate change studies. The model features three functional types of phytoplankton groups and allows for growth limitation by multiple potentially limiting nutrients including nitrogen, phosphorus, silicate, and iron. The iron cycle through upper ocean marine waters has been implemented including the atmospheric source from dust deposition. This atmospheric source of iron to the oceans can vary significantly over short (interannual-decadal) and long timescales (glacial-interglacial). Incorporating this flux and its influence on ocean biota marks a significant advance in our attempts to model biogeochemical cycles within the oceans. Development of the ecoystem model is now complete. Ongoing work concentrates on implementing this ecosystem model and the associated biogeochemical cycles in the CCSM.

Rebecca Morss, in collaboration with Kerry Emanuel (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), used simulations of simplified systems for atmospheric data assimilation and prediction to demonstrate that adding observations can degrade some weather analyses and forecasts. [Cf. Morss et al., 2001.] She also worked with Roger Pielke, Jr. (NCAR/ESIG, now at the Univ. of Colorado) and others on connecting observing systems, weather forecasts, and their effects on society. As part of this project, she and Dr. Pielke have assessed the importance of using an unbiased conceptual framework when studying these connections and when analyzing the costs and benefits of proposed observing system changes. To document these connections, she spent four weeks in Feb-Mar 2001 observing and interviewing weather forecasters and users of forecasts in conjunction with the Pacific Landfalling Jets Experiment (PACJET), an experiment to improve wintertime weather forecasts for the West Coast of the U.S. In addition, she collaborated with Pielke, Mel Shapiro (NCAR/NOAA), Rolf Langland (Naval Research Laboratory), Robert Gall (NCAR), and others, to develop a societal impacts component of The Hemispheric Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORpex), a proposed set of major field experiments during the next decade to improve 0-10 day mid-latitude weather forecasts.

Kathleen Purvis focused on the policy implications as well as the chemistry of aerosols in urban air pollution. In collaboration with Robert Harriss (ESIG), she has participated in the design of a project that explores urban metabolism. The purpose of this research is to study cities as a "living" entity with inputs (i.e. food, fuel, building materials) and outputs (i.e. atmospheric and aquatic pollution), and develop methods of designing urban centers in order to decrease impacts on people and ecosystems. Her main interest in this project deals with the prevention of aerosol outputs that adversely impact human health and degradation of ecological systems. She also worked with Douglas Worsnop (Aerodyne Research Inc.) on projects involving his Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (AMS). The AMS measures the size distribution, mass loading, and composition of aerosols in the 0.5 to 1.5 mm size range. In August and September she participated in the Texas 2000 Air Quality Study in Houston. She is responsible for identifying the composition of organic aerosols and investigating the deposition of organic molecules onto these particles.

David Schecter focussed on some applications of theoretical fluid mechanics that are relevant to meteorology, solar physics, and plasma physics. With Michael Montgomery (Colorado State University) and Paul Reasonor (NOAA Hurricane Research Division), he developed a new theory for how an incipient tropical cyclone becomes vertically aligned. This theory sheds light on the conditions that enable a tropical cyclone, amid hostile environmental shear, to develop into a full-strength hurricane. Schecter also collaborated with Joseph Boyd and Peter Gilman (HAO) in calculations of dispersion relations for large-scale magneto-hydrodynamic waves in the solar tachocline. He also wrote a paper reviewing recent electron plasma experiments, and related theory, on how two-dimensional vortices interact with environmental flow. This article draws

https://web.archive.org/web/20161216014539/http://www.asp.ucar.edu/asr2001/[12/23/2016 2:12:50 PM] ASP Annual Scientific Report 2001 connections between the plasma experiments and fundamental problems in atmospheric science, such as forecasting hurricane trajectories. It will appear in Non-Neutral Plasma Physics IV, AIP Press, 2002.

Roar Skartlien evaluated the ability of acoustic holography to reveal the structure of the solar interior. An important conclusion is that acoustic holograms define a Fredholm integral equation over sources and scatterers, which can be inverted via familiar constrained methods. This opens new possibilities for helioseismic holography, either for the recent Lindsey and Braun approach (developed for helioseismology), or for the older Porter-Bojarski approach which also can be used for the solar problem. Skartlien also sought to understand the meaning of the solar p-mode spectrum, when we take into account scattering on random inhomogeneities in the convection zone, as well as a stochastic source distribution. Recent theoretical developments show how the ensemble averaged power spectrum depends upon the correlation lengths in the medium, in particular for the convective velocity field, and for the sound speed fluctuations in the convective background. These results show how information about the convective flow is "encoded" in the p-mode spectrum.

Craig Stroud developed and used chemical box models to study the importance of hydrocarbon oxidation processes in the tropospheric production of oxidants and organic aerosols. He collaborated with Sasha Madronich, Elliot Atlas, Chris Cantrell, and Fred Eisele (ACD) on studies of the budgets of Ox, OH, RO x and NOx during the Tropospheric Ozone Production about the Spring Equinox (TOPSE) experiment. With Hans Friedli (ASP), he also studied the importance of long-chain aldehydes (believed to be emitted from vegetation) on tropospheric photochemistry. Dr. Stroud continues to collaborate with Dr. Diane Michelangi and Dr. Don Hastie at York University on the comparison of gas-aerosol partitioning box models with smog chamber aerosol experiments.

Olga Wilhelmi worked with Robert Harriss (ESIG) and Kathleen Purvis (ASP) on evaluating strategies for improving urban heat wave mitigation through involvement of geospatial information technologies. The study addresses the issues of social and economic trends that exacerbate human vulnerability in cities and discusses the question of how remote sensing and GIS technologies can enhance understanding, communication, and effectiveness in the prevention and mitigation of heat wave impacts in urban areas. Collaborating with colleagues from the University of Nebraska (Michael Hayes and Cody Knutson), Wilhelmi extended her previous studies of societal vulnerability to agricultural drought. This work focused on analysis of current vulnerability theories and addressed several case studies to understand gaps between theory and practice in drought mitigation..

Research of ASP Graduate Fellows

Tomoko Matsuo (State University of New York at Stony Brook), with guidance from Arthur Richmond (HAO), pursued her interests in the modeling of the responses of the Earth's upper atmosphere to magnetospheric inputs. The Earth's upper atmosphere is a highly driven and coupled system, and especially the disturbances associated with high-latitude geomagnetic activity exhibit dynamic characteristics varying rapidly and irregularly over a short time period. The further understanding and predictability of such a driven system is inherently subject to an accurate knowledge of its forcing. She was involved with algorithmic developments of Richmond and Kamide's data assimilation procedure for high-latitude electrodynamics in order to improve the accuracy and objectivity of its estimate of magnetospheric inputs to the upper atmosphere. Even though more and more observations have become available recently, the ionosphere is still a data sparse region compared to the meteorology and oceanography fields. With guidance from Douglas Nychka (GSP/CGD), she conducted a sequential non-linear regression analysis of a sparse data set to obtain Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) of the high-latitude ionospheric electric field. The results of her EOF analysis will be employed as a valuable constraint for the data assimilation procedure so that the spatial coherence of state variables over large scales can be taken into account. In addition, the first few dominant EOFs turned out to be physically interpretable and enabled her to quantify the large-scale variability in high-latitude ionospheric electric field.

Derek Straub (Colorado State University) completed the design and fabrication of a new instrument capable of sampling warm-based cloud water from an aircraft platform. The development of this instrument provides a means for characterizing cloud water chemical composition and studying cloud processing mechanisms. This work has been performed in association with Jeffrey L. Collett, Jr. (Colorado State University), David Rogers (NCAR/ATD), Richard Friesen (NCAR/ATD), and Darrel Baumgardner (Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico). The collection system consists of an axial-flow cyclone to separate cloud drops from the airstream, an automated sample storage system to allow multiple samples to be collected during a single research flight, and a control system. The axial-flow cyclone generates a rotational flow field in which centrifugal force removes cloud drops from the airflow and directs accumulated cloud water to the storage system. A stand alone, LabVIEW based control system is used to remotely operate system components, including the storage system valves and inlet cover, and to monitor and record system parameters. Predictions of airflow and cloud drop trajectories were made using the computational fluid dynamic (CFD) package FLUENT (Fluent, Inc., Lebanon, NH) to aid in the design of the collection system. The system has recently been deployed during the Dynamics and Chemistry of Marine Stratocumulus, Phase II (DYCOMS-II) in July 2001. Participation in DYCOMS-II has provided an opportunity to evaluate the collection characteristics of the system under flight conditions. Sample pH, peroxide concentrations, and formaldehyde concentrations have been measured, and major ions (Cl-, NO3-, SO42-, Na+, NH4+, K+, Ca2+ and Mg2+) have been analyzed through ion chromatography. The cloud water chemistry data will be used in conjunction with aerosol and trace gas measurements made concurrently during DYCOMS-II to examine relationships between cloud drop chemical concentrations, cloud drop size distributions, aerosol chemical composition, aerosol size distributions, and environmental parameters. Evidence of cloud processing, specifically the capacity of clouds for rapid aqueous phase oxidation of sulfur dioxide to sulfate, will also be investigated.

Amanda Cox (University of Colorado), with guidance from Larry Radke (ATD) and Judith Curry (University of Colorado), evaluated the impact of different calibration schemes and algorithms on the data quality of the Airborne Imaging Microwave Radiometer (AIMR). The AIMR is a dual-frequency, dual-polarization total power scanning radiometer operating at 37 and 90 GHz. On the NCAR C-130 aircraft, it provides scene brightness temperatures over a range of angles ±60° from nadir for a variety of research applications including sea ice emissivity, liquid water path, and wildfire detection. Errors resulting from instrument calibration translate directly to errors in the retrieved data product. An example of this is the propagation of an error of 1K in brightness temperature, which results in a 5 g/m2 error in the retrieval of liquid water path.

So-Young Ha (Seoul National University, Korea) developed a new method for the assimilation of measurements of slant-path water vapor into the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation (MM5 4DVAR) system. Such measurements are available from ground-based measurements of the phase shift in global-positioning-system signals. She has demonstrated that quantitative forecasts of precipitation are greatly improved by the assimilation of these measurements, notably for short-range rainfall prediction in a squall-line case. This research is guided by Ying-Hwa Kuo (MMM and UCAR/Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate, or COSMIC) and Yong-Run Guo (MMM).

Judith Berner (University of Bonn, Germany) detected and described a subtle but nevertheless important nonlinear signal in the geopotential height field simulated by a very long integration of a global climate model. This nonlinear signal is present in both the probability density function and the mean velocities of the projecton of the geopotential heights onto a low-dimensional phase space ( See these figures). In collaboration with Grant Branstator (CGD) she developed a nonlinear stochastic model with multiplicative noise for atmospheric low-frequency variability to investigate the roles of nonlinearities in this highly truncated model. The stochastic model captures the temporal and spatial behavior of the geopotential heights remarkably well. She also explored various statistical techniques with the aim of finding the optimal low- dimensional space for capturing the nonlinear signatures.

Research of ASP Senior Research Associates

Hans Friedli participated as an Adjunct PI in the Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE-ASIA), where he measured elemental mercury on 16 flights of the NSF/NCAR C-130 aircraft in the marine boundary layer and troposphere around Japan, Korea and China. The measurements indicate that there are significant emissions from fresh and old anthropogenic sources, volcanos, biomass burning and possible dust out of China, and that there is much less mixing than expected. The data are being correlated with other tracers and model predictions to verify source attributions. With Elliot Atlas, V. Stroud, Teresa Campos and Lawrence Radke (all of NCAR), Friedli published comprehensive results from last year's studies of volatile organic trace gases emitted from North American wildfires (See Friedli et al., 2001b.) A major finding was the large contribution of partially oxidized hydrocarbons which are the photo-chemical precursors for ozone and PAN pollution. As a result of the findings in this paper new work on the release processes of volatile organic compounds ahead of the fire front was initiated.

Friedli (with L. Radke (NCAR) and J. Lu (Meteorological Services of Canada, now at Ryerson Polytechnic University) published results on mercury emissions from burns of US vegetation done at the Forest Service Fire Science Laboratory in Missoula, MT. (Geophysical Research Letters, 28 (17) 3223-3226, 2001, "Mercury in Smoke from Biomass fires"). Measurements on biomass collected in Africa and burnt at MPI (with J. Lobert (UCSD). P. Crutzen (MPI) and W. Keen (U. Virginia)) yielded the same results as the Missoula experiments: essentially complete mercury release (mostly as elemental mercury) and large differences in mercury content among fuels. The laboratory results were verified in airborne campaigns in Quebec (Twin Otter with C. Banic et al., Meteorological Services of Canada) and in Washington State (CV-580 with P. Hobbs and P. Sinha, U. Washington).

One of John Latham's primary research goals has been to determine thundercloud ice characteristics from satellite observations of lightning. He has performed this work in conjuction with Hugh Christian (NASA, Huntsville) and Alan Blyth (University of Leeds, UK). The continuous satisfactory functioning of satellite-borne devices for the detection of global lightning offers the opportunity to explore relationships between lightning frequency f and other thundercloud parameters. Novel calculations predict that the lightning frequency f is proportional to the product of the downward flux of solid precipitation through the body of the thundercloud and the upward flux of ice crystals into its anvil. This prediction is reinforced by limited field data and more elaborate computations performed using a multiple lightning model.

Latham has also proposed a technique for controlled and significant enhancement of the droplet concentration in low-level maritime clouds, with a corresponding increase in their albedo for incoming sunlight and their longevity. It appears possible that the concomitant cooling effect could be regulated and sufficiently powerful to significantly ameliorate global warming. The technique involves dissemination at the ocean surface of small seawater droplets which, if in sufficient quantities and with appropriate salt mass, could act as the dominant cloud condensation nuclei on which droplets form in marine stratocumulus. It has a short response time and low ecological impact, requiring only seawater (and possibly air) as raw materials. Mike Smith (University of Leeds, UK) and Tom Wigley (NCAR/CGD) have made useful contributions to this research.

Research Activities of the Geophysical Turbulence Program (GTP)

TURBULENCE NEAR A ROUGH SURFACE: THE SGS-2000 EXPERIMENT

The dynamics of small-scale, high-Reynolds number turbulence near a rough boundary, like a land surface, is poorly understood and its proper modeling remains one of the challenging issues in Large Eddy Simulations (LES) of the planetary boundary layer. In order to gain further insight into the dynamics of wall-bounded turbulence, a group of GTP members (Tim Horst, Don Lenschow, Chin-Hoh Moeng, Steve Oncley, Peter Sullivan and Jeff Weil) conducted a field campaign during September 2000 in the Central Valley of California (SGS-2000), in collaboration with John Hopkins faculty (Jan Kleissl, Charles Meneveau and Marc Parlange). Two vertically-displayed horizontal arrays of sonic anemometers were configured so that the measured turbulent motions could be spatially filtered into large eddies (i.e., resolved-scale) and small eddies (i.e., subgrid-scale, SGS). The continuous month-long observations and the use of four different array configurations allowed the examination of the effects of atmospheric stability and filter scale. The SGS-2000 data are actively being analyzed and will be a centerpiece of the GTP- sponsored workshop in August of 2002. From the filtered and SGS fields, the resolved-scale strain rate, SGS stresses, and dissipation rate can be computed and used to study the instantaneous interaction between SGS and resolved-scale eddies, and hence can be used to verify and improve existing SGS models for LES as well as provide insight into the dynamics of near-wall turbulence.

LAND-ATMOSPHERE and AIR-SEA INTERACTIONS

The MMM section of this report contains an extensive discussion of studies of the planetary boundary layer and of land-atmosphere and air-sea interactions, as well as studies conducted in association with the field experiment DYCOMS-II (Dynamics and Chemistry of Marine Stratocumulus).

CHEMISTRY AND TURBULENCE

Chun-Ho Liu, Mary Barth and Sasha Madronich (ACD) studied street canyons in cities. These canyons are usually poorly ventilated so that pollutant gases, such as carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides, emitted from traffic are trapped in the lower portion of the street canyon. To analyze air quality at the street level and to assess the efficiency of ventilating chemical species out of the street canyon, they used a large eddy simulation (LES) code to examine scalar dispersion inside a street canyon . The LES domain was configured to include a square cavity topped by a free shear layer. A cross-wise flow was imposed in the free shear layer, while a scalar was emitted at the surface along the span-wise centerline of the street canyon. At a Reynolds number of approximately 12,000, the scalar was transported toward the leeward wall and upwards to the free shear layer. Results show that 97% of the scalar is retained in the street canyon when the emissions source is at the centerline or at approximately one-third of the distance from the canyon wall.

Furthermore, Mary Barth and Edward Patton (The Pennsylvania State University and MMM), again using the LES approach, examined the limitations to chemical reactions imposed by the mixing of chemicals with different source distributions at varying spatial scales. Specifically, they invetigated the influence of horizontally varying isoprene (C5H8) source distributions reacting with hydroxyl radicals (OH). Isoprene is a naturally occurring hydrocarbon emitted at the surface by vegetation, while OH is produced from ozone entrained each day into the planetary boundary layer from the free troposphere. Smaller-scale spatial emission heterogeneity tends to influence reaction rates solely in the surface layer, while larger-scale patches reduce reaction rates through the entire depth of the boundary layer. Large-scale horizontally- heterogeneous source distributions (on the order of two times the boundary layer height, the largest tested) are found to result in a factor of two reduction of the bulk boundary-layer reaction rate between isoprene and OH thereby increasing the oxidation capacity of the boundary layer.

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DIRECT NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF TURBULENT FLOWS

Jackson Herring and Robert Kerr (MMM, now at University of Arizona) designed a code to test theories of the scaling properties of convection. In this work, the strong dependence of the heat flux upon Prandtl number (ratio of viscosity and thermal diffusivity) that has been experimentally observed from low Prandtl number fluids like mercury to higher Prandtl number fluids like water and gaseous helium has been reproduced. The detailed analysis also shows that the way the different velocity and temperature boundary layer thicknesses stack is closely connected to how the dependence of the heat flux on the Rayleigh number changes with Prandtl number. This work is continuing with efforts to put all of these regimes into a single theoretical framework.

Robert Kerr, with Axel Brandenburg (NORDITA), simulated linked flux rings using up to 6003 mesh points for ideal, incompressible magnetohydrodynamics and, using symmetries, with an equivalent resolution of 12003. They found that the peak current grows in an algebraic, nearly singular, manner almost until the calculations must be stopped due to lack of resolution. The results could be consistent with mathematical bounds for a singularity and show strong similarities to earlier work on singularities of the Euler equations. At this time, they do not believe the evidence supports the existence of a purely MHD singularity. However, they do believe this and other recent calculations point to a new nonlinear dynamical mechanism that will always lead to a rapid reconfiguration of magnetic field lines followed by fast reconnection if sufficient magnetic helicity is injected into the system. In the solar corona such a mechanism exists through foot-point motions by convective cells in the solar photosphere.

MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMICS AND SOLAR ISSUES

Yuhong Fan used a parallelized version of the ZEUS-3D MHD code (originally developed by Jim Stone and Mike Norman then at the University of Illinois) to perform three-dimensional MHD simulations of the emergence of twisted magnetic flux tubes from the top layer of the convection zone into the solar atmosphere and the corona. She found that the non-linear development of the magnetic buoyancy instability (or Parker instability) can cause flux tubes entering the photosphere boundary to expand into the stably stratified solar atmosphere. Good agreement obtains between the simulation results and the observation of a newly developing solar active region studied by Strous et al. (1996, Astronomy and Astrophysics, 306, 947). These numerical simulations will improve the understanding of the physical process of active region formation on the Sun.

WAVELET ANALYSES OF TURBULENT ENERGY CASCADES

Aimé Fournier, an Affiliate Scientist from the University of Maryland, applied new wavelet-based diagnostics to observed atmospheric blocking in the 53-year NCAR reanalysis results. This study shows that previously observed turbulent kinetic-energy-cascade changes in the wavenumber domain during blocking can now be simultaneously isolated with respect to the block location. Specifically, upscale wavenumber cascades of kinetic energy and enstrophy tend to be located west of blocks, and downscale cascades, east.

FLUCTUATION-DISSIPATION THEOREM AND CLIMATE

Andrei Gritsoun, a staff scientist at the Russian Academy of Science's Institute of Numerical Mathematics, visited GTP for three months to collaborate with Grant Branstator (CGD) on applications of the fluctuation-dissipation theorem to climate problems. This theorem indicates that the Green's function for systems that satisfy certain properties can be constructed from observations of the system's intrinsic variability. Using data from very long integrations of one of NCAR's GCMs, Gritsoun and Branstator were able to produce an operator which reproduces the GCM's response to external forcing with remarkable fidelity. Via singular vector analysis, they intend to use this operator to determine optimal means of exciting the climate system.

MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC (MHD) TURBULENCE: CONCEPTS AND OBSERVATIONS

Annick Pouquet, in collaboration with Sebastien Galtier (University of Paris), Sergie Nazarenko (University of Warwick) and Alan Newell (University of Arizona), developed a new approach to weak MHD turbulence in the presence of a strong uniform magnetic field B0 by restricting the analysis to shear Alfven waves confined to the plane perpendicular to B0. In collaboration with Marc-Etienne Brachet and Caroline Nore (ENS-Paris) and Helene Politano (Observatoire de la Cote d'Azur (OCA)) Pouquet used sub-critical dynamics concepts to study the ability of a laboratory flow to sustain a dynamo. For a weak applied B0, a dynamo effect appears even at low magnetic Reynolds number RM because of the presence of an extra term in the induction equation. By watching the level of saturation of the magnetic energy as a function of RM, one can determine if such a sub-critical dynamo effect is measurable in the laboratory. In a further effort to classify turbulent flows, Pouquet collaborated with Helene Politano and Luca Sorriso Valvo (OCA) and Vincenzo Carbone and Pier-Luigi Veltri (University of Calabria), to determine how the magnetic field changes sign as a function of the observed scale. They observed that cancellations between positive and negative contributions of the field inside structures are inhibited for scales smaller than the Taylor microscale, and stop near the dissipative scale. In collaboration with Helene Politano and Joachim Saur (John Hopkins), Pouquet showed that the magnetosphere of Jupiter, between Io and Callisto, behaves like a magnetofluid in the regime of weak MHD turbulence, with a slab component added, similar to the case of the solar wind.

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Publications

Refereed: Balsara, D., D. Crutcher, and A. Pouquet, 2001: Turbulent flows within self-gravitating magnetized molecular clouds. Astrophys. J., 557, 451-463. Barthazy, E., S. Goeke, J. Vivekanandan, and S.M. Ellis, 2001: Detection of snow and ice crystals using polarization radar measurements: Comparison between ground-based in situ and S-Pol observations.Atmos. Res., in press. Epifanio, C.C., and D.R. Durran, 2001: Three-dimensional effects in high-drag-state flows over long ridges.J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 1051-1065. Friedli, H.R., L.F. Radke, and J.Y. Lu, 2001: Mercury in smoke from biomass fires.Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 3223-3226. ----, E. Atlas, V.R. Stroud, L. Giovanni, T. Campos, and L.F. Radke, 2001: Volatile organic trace gases emitted from North American wildfires.Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 15, 435-452. Giannini, A., M.A. Cane, and Y. Kushnir, 2001: Interdecadal changes in the ENSO teleconnection to the Caribbean region and the North Atlantic Oscillation.J. Climate, 14, 2867-2879. ----, Y. Kushnir, and M.A. Cane, 2001: Seasonality in the impact of ENSO and the North Atlantic High on Caribbean rainfall.Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, (B), 6(2), 143-147. Gilmour, I., L.A. Smith, and R. Buizza*, 2001: Linear Regime Duration: Is 24 Hours a Long Time in Synoptic Weather Forecasting? JAS, 58 (22), 3525-3539. Gomez, T., H. Politano*, M. Larchevêque, and A. Pouquet, 2001: The extension of the Lundgren transformation to the compressible case, Phys. Fluids, 13, 1065-2075. Lane, T.P., M.J. Reeder, B.R. Morton, and T.L. Clark, 2000: Observations and numerical modeling of mountain waves over the Southern Alps of New Zealand.Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126, 2765-2788. ----, ----, and T.L. Clark, 2001: Numerical modeling of gravity wave generation by deep tropical convection.J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 1249-1274. López Ariste, A., H. Socas-Navarro, and G. Molodij, 2001: Observation of linear polarization in the IR Ca II triplet lines during umbral flashes.Astrophys. J., 552, 871-876. McIntosh, S.W., T.J. Bogdan, P.S. Cally*, M. Carlsson*, V.H. Hansteen*, P.G. Judge, B.W. Lites, H. Peter*, C.S. Rosenthal*, and T.D. Tarbell*, 2001: An observational manifestation of magneto-atmospheric waves in inter-network regions of the chromosphere and transition region. Astrophys. J. Lett., 548, 237. Meehl, G.A., R. Lukas*, G.N. Kiladis*, K.M. Weickmann*, A.J. Matthews*, and M. Wheeler, 2001: A conceptual framework for time and space scale interactions in the climate system.Climate Dyn., 17, 753-775. Miller, K., A.M. Gadian, C.P.R. Saunders, J. Latham, and H.R. Christian*, 2001: Modelling and observations of thundercloud electrification and lightning.Atmos. Res., 58, 89-115. Morss, R.E., K.A. Emauel, and C. Snyder, 2001: Idealized adaptive observation strategies for improving numerical weather prediction.J. Atm. Sci., 58, 210-232. Norman, J.P.*, P. Charbonneau, S.W. McIntosh, H. Liu, 2001: Waiting time distributions in lattice models of solar flares.Astrophys. J., 557, 891. Pacala, S.W., G.C. Hurtt, D. Baker, P.Peylin*, R.A. Houghton*, R.A. Birdsey*, L. Heath*, E.T. Sundquist*, R.F. Stallard*, P. Ciais*,P. Moorcroft, J.P. Caspersen, E. Shevliakova, B. Moore, G. Kohlmaier*, E. Holland, M. Gloor*, M.E. Harmon*, S.-M. Fan, J.L. Sarmiento, C.L. Goodale*, D. Schimel, and C.B. Field*, 2001:Consistent land--and atmosphere--based U.S. carbon sink estimates.Science, 292, 2316-2320. Paletou, F., A. López Ariste, V. Bommier, and M. Semel, 2001: Full-Stokes spectropolarimetry of solar prominences.Astron. and Astrophys., 375, L39-L42. Phillips, V.J.P., A.M. Blyth, P.R.B. Brown*, T.W. Choularton, and J. Latham, 2001: The glaciation of a cumulus cloud over New Mexico.Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 127, 1513-1534. Prentice, I.C., G.D. Farquhar, M.J.R. Fasham, M.L. Goulden, M. Heimann, V.J. Jaramillo, H.S. Kheshgi, C. Le Quere, R.J. Sholes, and D.W.R. Wallace (D.Baker contributing author), 2001: The carbon cycle and atmospheric carbon dioxide.In Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis.Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. J.T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. vander Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C.A. Johnson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K. and NY, NY, 881 pg. Schecter, D.A., D.H.E. Dubin, A.C. Cass, C.F. Driscoll, I.M. Lansky, and T.M. O'Neil, 2000: Inviscid damping of asymmetries on a two-dimensional vortex.Phys. Fluids, 12, 2397-2412. ----, J.F. Boyd, and P.A. Gilman, 2001: "Shallow-Water" Magnetohydrodynamic Waves in the Solar Tachocline.APJL 551, L185-L188. ----, D.H.E. Dubin, 2001: Theory and simulations of vortex motion driven by a background vorticity gradient.Phys. Fluids, 13, 1704-1723. ----, 2002: Two-dimensional vortex dynamics with background vorticity.Non-Neutral Plasma Physics IV (AIP, San Diego). Socas-Navarro, H., A. López Ariste, and B. Lites, 2001: Fast inversion of spectral lines using principal component analysis. II. Inversion of real Stokes data, Astrophys. J., 553, 949-954. Szunyogh, I., Z. Toth, R.E. Morss, S. Majumdar, B. Etherton, and C.H. Bishop, 2000: The effect of targeted dropsonde observations during the 1999 Winter Storm Reconnaissance Program.Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 3520-3537. Wheeler, M., and K.M Weickmann*, 2001: Real-time monitoring and prediction of modes of coherent synoptic to intraseasonal tropical variability.Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 2677-2694. Nonrefereed: Baker, D.F., 2001:Sources and Sinks of Atmospheric CO2 Estimated from Batch Least-Squares Inversions of CO2Concentration Measurements, Ph.D. dissertation, Princeton Univ. Berner, J., G. Branstator, 2001: Consequences of nonlinearities on the low-frequency behavior of an AGCM. 13th Conference on Atmospheric and Oceanic fluid Dynamics, Breckenridge, Colorado, June 2001, Preprints, 231-234. Camassa, R., C., Jones, L. Kellog, I. Mezic, A. Pouquet, and B. Turkington, 2001: A ratioal approach to "Earth management."SIAM News, 34, 6, 1. Cox, A.E., C. Walther, J.A. Haggerty, 2000, Extending the Calibration Range for the Airborne Imagine Microwave Radiometer (AIMR) Part I: Using Liquid Nitrogen as a Low Temperature Calibration Point in the Laboratory, First International Microwave Radiometer Calibration Workshop, October 30-31. Dowell, D.C., L.J. Wicker* and A. Shapiro, 2001: Thermodynamic retrieval experiments with a 2-D model.Preprints, 30th Conf. On Radar Meteor., Munich, Germany, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 191-193. ----, J. Wurman, and L.J. Wicker*, 2001: Centrifuging of scatterers in tornadoes.Preprints, 30th Conf. on Radar Meteor., Munich, Germany, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 307-309. Gomez, T., H. Politano*, A. Pouquet, and M. Larchevêque, 2001: Spiral small-scale structures in compressible turbulent flows.In Tubes, Sheets and Singularities in Fluid Dynamics, IUTAM Symposium and NATO Advanced Research Workshop, Zakopane, K. Bajer and K. Moffatt, Eds., Kluwer. Harasti, P.R., and R. List, 2001: Nowcasting hurricane properties by Principal Component Analysis of Dopper velocity data.Minutes of the 55th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Orlando, FL, March 5-9, NOAA/OFCM, B-P-17--B-P-23. ----, and ----, 2001: Nowcasting hurricane properties by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of Doppler velocity data.Preprints, 30th International Conference on Radar Meteorology, Munich, Gemany, July 19-24, Amer. Met. Soc., 255-258. ----, and ----, 2001: The Hurricane-customized extension of the VAD (HEVAD) method: Hurricane wind estimation in the lower troposphere.Preprints, 30th International Conference on Radar Meteorology, Munich, Germany, July 19-24, Amer. Met. Soc., 465-467. Lane, T.P., and T.L. Clark, 2001: Horizontal scale selection and the role of gravity waves in the convective boundary layer.9th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Fort Lauderdale, FL, 30 July-2 August, 313-314. Layton, A.T., and H.E. Layton, 2001: A stable and efficient numerical method for models of the urine concentrating mechanism.2001 World Congress of Nephrology, Nov. 1-4, Publication no. A0092. Liu, H.-L., P. Charbonneau, T.J. Bogdan, A. Pouquet, S.W. McIntosh, and J/P. Norman, 2001: An avalanche system for MHD.AGU session on solar flares, Boston, May. Maloney, E.D., 2001: Assessing intraseasonal variability produced by several convection schemes in the NCAR CCM3.6.Proceedings of the AGU Spring 2001 Meeting, Boston, MA. ----, 2001: MJO-related SST variations over the tropical eastern Pacific during Northern Hemisphere summer.Proceedings of the AGU Spring 2001 Meeting, Boston, MA. McAdie, C.J.*, P.R. Harasti, P. Dodge*, W.-C. Lee, S. Murillo*, and F.D. Marks, Jr*., 2001:Real-time implementation of tropical cyclone-specific radar data processing algorithms.Preprints, 30th International Conference on Radar Meteorology.Munich, Germany, July 19-24, Amer. Met. Soc. 468-470. Miesch, M.S., 2001: Nonlinear modeling of the solar tachocline, in Recent Insights into the Physics of the Sun and Heliosphere, IAU Symposium no. 203, P. Brekke, B. Fleck, and J.B. Gurman, Eds., Astronomical Society of the Pacific: San Francisco, 202-204. Morss, R.E., and D.S. Battisti*, 2001: Observing Networks for ENSO Prediction: Experiments with a Simplified Model.Preprint, 5th AMS Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems, Jan. 14-19, Albuquerque, NM. Nore, C., M.E. Brachet*, H. Politano*, and A. Pouquet, 2001: Etude numérique de l'effet dynamo dans la géomètrie du tourbillon de Taylor-Green. Atelier de turbulence du GDR 1112 "Astrophysique et MHD," Toulouse, Dec. 2000, 17-18, F. Anselmet, Ed. http://www.lps.ens.fr/gdr/turbulence/ . Pouquet, A., 2001: A brief overview of some new results in turbulence. ISSS-6, Copernicus Gessellschaft. ----, 2001: The role of intermittency in geophysical and astrophysical turbulent fluids: The case of coupling to a magnetic field.AGU Session U01, Boston, May. Saur, J., H. Politano, and Q. Pouquet, 2001: On the relevance of a turbulence approach for the Jovian magnetosphere.Jupiter Conference, Boulder, June. Schecter, D.A., M.T. Montgomery, and P.D. Reasor*, 2001: A Theory for the Vertical Alignment of a Geophysical Vortex.13th Conference on Atmospheric and Oceanic Fluid Dynamics, Amer. Met. Soc., Boston, 94-98. Sorriso, L., V. Carbone, H. Politano*, A. Pouquet, and P.L. Veltri, 2001: Intermittency and analysis of cancellation exponents in MHD turbulence.EGS, Session ST12. Straub, D.J., J.L. Collett, Jr., D. Baumgardner, and R. Friesen, 2001: Design and characterization of a new airborne cloudwater sampler, Pp. 209-212 in Second International Conference on Fog and Fog Collection, R.S. Schemenauer and H. Puxbaum, Eds., St. John's, Canada, July 15-20. Wilhelmi, O.V., and D.A. Wilhite, 2001: Drought Vulnerability Assessment as a Part of Nebraska Drought Planning.Proceedings of the Association of American Geographers Annual Meeting, Feb. 27- March 3.New York, NY.

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EDUCATIONAL ACTIVITIES Seminar Series The ASP continued its series of seminar presentations.They are intended to promote greater understanding of the range of scientific activities underway at NCAR and the scientific community and to provide postdocs with an opportunity to schedule and arrange logistics for visiting scientists.During FY-01 ASP hosted 18 seminars from NCAR scientists and eight outside institutions. Thompson Lectures In 1998 ASP established the "Thompson Lecture Series," named in honor of Phil Thompson who founded the Advanced Study Program and was NCAR's first associate director.Under this program, prominent scientists are brought to NCAR for short visits that promote interaction between them and the postdoctoral fellows and other junior scientists at NCAR.In addition to presenting formal lectures, the Thompson Lecturers listen to briefings on the research being conducted by ASP Fellows and comment and provide advice on those research projects.They also meet with groups of scientists to discuss some more general topics, provide career advice, and offer their perspectives on scientific trends and priorities.In FY-01, three Thompson Lecturers were brought to NCAR: James Holton (University of Washington), Robert Rosner (University of Chicago), and Mark Schoeberl (NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center). Other Educational Activities Several ASP Postdoctoral Fellows served as SOARS mentors during the summer months.SOARS is hosted through the Human Resources department of UCAR. ASP also helped host the Research Experiences for Undergraduates program conducted by Robert Frodeman (University of Colorado) and Mark Bullock (Southwest Research Institute), which brought twelve undergraduates to NCAR for a 10-week program examining philosophical as well as scientific aspects of global climate change.

In addition, ASP hosted the Meteorological Optics Workshop at NCAR 5-8 June 2001. Thirty participants from 28 institutions attended this workshop representing the USA, Spain, The Netherlands, Canada, Sweden, Finland and Germany.

ASP postdoctoral fellows collaborated in teaching a graduate-level course at the University of Colorado on global climate change, and Cooper taught a course at the University of Wyoming on precipitation processes. Both courses started in FY2001 but continued through the fall-2001 semester.

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COMMUNITY SERVICE Jefferson Keith Moore participated in the advisory panel for NOAA's Carbon Dioxide 2000-2001. He also helped write the science plan and recommendation with NOAA.

Many ASP fellows and employees served as reviewers for journals, including: David Schecter refereed Physics of Plasmas, Scott McIntosh served as reviewer for Astrophysical Journal and Astronomy and Astrophysics as did Tian-You Yu for Radio Science. From GTP, Annick Pouquet served as associate editor for Journal of Computational Physics and also served as reviewer for the following: Astrophysical Journal, Cambridge University Press, Focus of Physical Review Letters, Geophysical Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics, Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, Physica D, Physical Review E, Physical Review Letters. She also served as a proposal reviewer for the Department of Energy. Duane Rosenberg, also with GTP, served as peer reviewer for Journal of Computational Physics.

Jerry Mahlman, Senior Research Associate with ASP, prepared the Department of Energy's educational brochure.

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Staff, Visitors & Collaborators Staff William A. Cooper (75%) Garth D’Attilo (25%) Robert Dillon (Student Assistant III until 3/30/01) Barbara Hansford Robert Kerr (GTP until 8/22/01) Sean McNamara (Student Assistant III until 5/8/01) Judy Miller Annick Pouquet (GTP) Ryan Prescott (Student Assistant III from 7/9/01) Duane Rosenberg (GTP Software Engineer from 6/25/01) Senior Research Associates Jeff Anderson (SRA from 8/11/01) Guy Brasseur (SRA from 7/01) Hans Friedli John Latham Jerry Mahlman (SRA from 8/1/01) Lawrence Radke (SRA from 5/15/01) NGFs Judith Berner; University of Bonn; weather regimes and transitions in observations and models. Amanda Cox; University of Colorado; remote sensing, particularly in the microwave frequencies with current research emphasis on microwave radiometer calibration. So-Young Ha; Seoul National University, Korea; MM5 4DVAR of Ground-based GPS water vapor observations. Tomoko Matsuo; State University of New York, Stony Brook; investigation of the upper atmosphere responses to magnetospheric inputs at high-latitudes. Derek Straub; Colorado State University; aircraft-based instrumentation development and analysis using numerical fluid flow modeling; cloud and aerosol chemistry. Postdocs David Baker; Princeton University; carbon cycle research, carbon dioxide flux inversion estimates, data assimilation. Patrick Chuang; California Institute of Technology; aerosol and cloud microphysics. David Dowell; University of Oklahoma; severe thunderstorms; thermodynamic retrievals; data assimilation. Craig Epifanio; Univ. of Washington; mesoscale dynamics; orographic waves and wakes; numerical modeling. Ian Faloona; Pennsylvania State Univ.; atmospheric oxidation processes; influence of atmospheric dynamics on chemistry. Bryan Fong; UCLA; solar coronal equilibria and instabilities. Andrew Gettelman; University of Washington; stratosphere-troposphere exchange and the structure of the extratropical tropopause. Alessandra Giannini; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory; seasonal predictability of rainfall in the tropical Atlantic basin and its applications, and mechanisms for ENSO teleconnections to remote ocean basins. Isla Gilmour; Oxford Univ.; ensemble forecasting; predictability issues related to model error. Sabine Goeke; ETH-Hoenggerberg HPP; observations of microphysical processes in cold clouds. Paul Harasti; University of Toronto; the development, validation and implementation of single-Doppler radar analysis methods that estimate the horizontal wind field of hurricanes. Thomas Karl; Univ. of Innsbruck; atmospheric chemistry; micrometeorological flux measurement techniques; using micrometeorological techniques to measure trace gas fluxes; VOC inventories and modeling; using mass spectrometry for VOC monitoring. Andrzej Klonecki; Princeton University; 3-D global and regional modeling of the chemical species in the troposphere. Todd Lane; Monash University; high resolution mesoscale modeling of convection, gravity wave generation, and cloud-induced turbulence. Anita Tam Layton; University of Toronto; computational fluid dynamics, shallow water equations in spherical geometry. Arturo Lopez-Ariste; Observatoire de Paris-Meudon; Spectropolarimetry for the diagnostic of solar and stellar magnetic fields: theoretical and numerical transfer of polarized radiation; observational techniques; instrumentation. Eric Maloney; University of Washington; tropical convective variability, convection parameterizations in GCMs, tropical cyclones. Jennifer Mangan; University of Colorado; science education. Daniel Marsh; University of Michigan; dynamical influences of the distribution of minor constituents in the middle and upper atmosphere. Shane Mayor; University of Wisconsin; lidar development and application of lidars to boundary layer meteorology including large-eddy simulation. Scott McIntosh; University of Glasgow, Scotland; modeling of various wave phenomena in the upper solar atmosphere. Christian Meyer; University of Colorado; modeling of the middle and upper atmosphere with an emphasis on wave-wave and wave-mean flow interactions. Mark Miesch; University of Cambridge; solar and stellar convection, turbulence, shear flows, numerical modeling, and star formation. Jefferson Keith Moore; Oregon State University; marine ecosystem modeling, and the role of ocean biota in the global carbon cycle. Rebecca Morss; MIT; Influence of observation and data assimilation strategies onweather and El Nino prediction; predictability and its implications. Aimee Norton; Stanford University; observations of solar magnetic fields and energy transport in solar atmosphere. Kathleen Purvis; Princeton Univ.; Urban air pollution; characterization of aerosol size and chemical composition and subsequent policy implications. David Schecter; Univ. of California; Free relaxation of 2D turbulence, vortex dynamics related to hurricane evolution, basic fluid mechanics of the solar tachocline. Roar Skartlien; University of Oslo, Norway; wave propagation and wave generation in the solar interior and atmosphere. Waves in stochastic media, acoustic imaging, acoustic sources in the convection zone, the meaning of the solar p-mode spectrum. James Smith; California Institute of Technology; Optical and chemical properties of atmospheric aerosol. Craig Stroud; University of Colorado; tropospheric photochemistry: understanding the formation of ozone and organic aerosol Matthew Wheeler; University of Colorado; the association of Equatorial waves and organized tropical convection in observations and models. Olga Wilhelmi; Univ. of Nebraska; Climate impacts on society; extreme climatic events;vulnerability assessment techniques. Tian-You Yu; University of Nebraska; high-resolution studies of the atmosphere using novel radar techniques. Qinghong Zhang; Peking University; MM5 3DVAR of hurricane simulation and space-based lidar OSSE. Mark Zondlo; University of Colorado; field measurements of trace gas species important in aerosol particle chemistry. Other Visitors

M. L. Anderson; University of California, Davis; ASP Seminar Series. Jerome Chanut; Lab. des Ecoulements Geophysiques et Industriels, France; modeling deep ocean convection. Heidi Cullen; Columbia University; ASP Seminar Series. Gregory Duane; University of Colorado; sychronized chaos in the large-scale atmosphere circulation. Jim Hansen; Massachusetts Institute of Technology; ASP Seminar Series. James Holton; University of Washington; Thompson Lecture series. David Jorgensen, NOAA-NSSL; ASP Seminar Series. Klaus Keller, Princeton University; ASP Seminar Series. Sonia Lasher-Trapp; University of Oklahoma; observations and modeling of warm cloud microphysical processes. Alfonso Lester; Universidad Nacional, Mexico Barbara Noziere; Bergisch University Gesamthochschule Wuppertal, Germany; laboratory studies of the transformation of biogenic compounds in the troposphere; gas- and condensed-phase processes. Cecile Penland, NOAA and University of Colorado-CIRES; ASP Seminar Series Robert Rosner; University of Chicago; Thompson Lecture series. Mark Schoeberl; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Thompson Lecture series. Raymond Shaw; Michigan Tech.; turbulence and clouds. Herman Sievering; University of Colorado, Denver; atmospheric aerosols and exchange of gases and particles at air/surface boundary. Howard Singer; NOAA Space Environment Center; ASP Seminar Series. Brian Toon, University of Colorado, ASP Seminar Series. GTP Visitors

Pierre Coullet, CNRS, France Sergey Danilov, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russia Peter Davidson, University of Cambridge Sebastien Galtier, University of Warwick Sandip Ghosal, Northwestern University Andrei Gritsoun, Russian Academy of Sciences Bach-Lien Hua, IFREMER, France Ed Huckle, UCLA Helene Politano, Observatoire de la Cote d'Azur, France Yannick Ponty, Observatoire de la Cote d'Azur, France Andrzej Wyszogrodzki, Los Alamos National Lab

Workshop on Fine Scale Turbulence & Cloud Microphysics (GTP-hosted) Brad Baker, SPEC Inc. Jean-Louis Brenguier, Meteo France Lance Collins, Pennsylvania State University Al Cooper, NCAR Ian Faloona, NCAR Hermann Gerber, Gerber Scientific, Inc.

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Wojciech Grabowski, NCAR Jackson Herring, NCAR Reginald Hill, NOAA Environmental Technology Lab Chris Jeffery, University of British Columbia Alexei Korolev, Meteorological Service of Canada Don Lenschow, NCAR Chun-Ho Liu, NCAR Szymon Malinowski, University of Warsaw, Poland Hui Meng, State University of New York at Buffalo Chin-Hoh Moeng, NCAR Andreas Muschinski, NOAA Environmental Technology Lab Ned Patton, NCAR Annick Pouquet, NCAR David Schecter, NCAR Raymond Shaw, Michigan Tech Holger Siebert, Institute for Tropospheric Research Katepalli Sreenivasan, Yale University Peter Sullivan, NCAR Jielun Sun, NCAR Johannes Verlinde, Pennsylvania State University Lian-Ping Wang, University of Delaware Zellman Warhaft, Cornell University Volker Wulfmeyer, NCAR and NOAA Environmental Technology Lab John Wyngaard, Pennsylvania State University Workshop on Fronts in Scalar and Vector Geophysical Fields (GTP-hosted)

Thomas Birner, DLR-Institute for Atmospheric Physics, Germany Eberhard Bodenschatz, Cornell University Anne Bourlioux, Universite de Montreal, Canada Antonio Celani, CNRS, France Michael Chertkov, Los Alamos National Lab Pierre J. DeMey, unaffiliated, France Rosella Ferretti, University of L'Aguila, Italy Aime Fournier, NCAR Sebastien Galtier, Universite Paris XI, France Thomas Gomez, Lab de Modelisation en Mecanique Universite Paris 6, France David Gurarie, NCAR Peter Hess, NCAR Reginald Hill, NOAA/ETL Robert Kerr, University of Arizona Daniel Keyser, SUNY-Albany Si-Wan Kim, Seoul National University, Korea Yoshifumi Kimura, Nagoya University, Japan Susan Kurien, Yale University Don Lenschow, NCAR William Lindberg, University of Wyoming Catherine Mavriplis, George Washington University Andrea Mazzino, CNR, Italy Jim McWilliams, UCLA Chin-Hoh Moeng, NCAR Rebecca Morss, NCAR David Porter, University of Minnesota Annick Pouquet, NCAR Alain Pumir, Institut Non Lineaire de Nice, CNRS, France Mark Rast, NCAR Duane Rosenberg, NCAR Richard Rotunno, NCAR Daniel Rudnick, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Alex Schekochihin, UCLA Chris Snyder, NCAR Boris Shraiman, Bell Labs Lynn Sparling, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Peter Sullivan, NCAR Jielun Sun, NCAR Patrick Tabeling, Ecole Normale Superieure, France Massimo Vergassola, CNRS, France Zellman Warhaft, Cornell University Jeff Weiss, University of Colorado Dino Zardi, University of Trento, Italy The Tropical Atmosphere and Oceans Colloquium Lecturers: Mark Cane, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University Chris Fairall, NOAA Environmental Lab William Gray, Colorado State University Weiqing Han, University of Colorado James Holton, University of Washington Robert Houze, University of Washington George Kiladis, NOAA Aeronomy Lab Ben Kirtman, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies Richard Kleeman, Lamont-Doherty Tiruvalam Krishnamurti, Florida State University Julian McCreary, University of Hawaii Peter Molnar, University of Colorado Michael Montgomery, Colorado State University Gerald Meehl, NCAR Dennis Moore, NOAA/PMEL Tim Palmer, ECMWF, England Robert Tomas, University of Colorado Chidong Zhang, University of Miami Participants: Anantha Aiyyer, SUNY-Albany Kettyah Chhak, North Carolina State University John Chiang, University of Washington Galina Chirokova, University of Colorado Steve Cooper, Colorado State University Kristen Corbosiero, SUNY-Albany Matthew Garcia, Colorado State University Tom Hopson, University of Colorado Zhiming Kuang, CalTech Manuel Lonfat, University of Miami Brenda Mulac, University of Colorado Badrinath Nagarajan, McGill University, Canada Francis Otieno, Iowa State University Lyle Pakula, Colorado State University Jeremy Pennington, University of Miami Kara Sterling, University of Colorado Katherine Straub, NOAA Aeronomy Lab Baijun Tian, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Matt Trebela, University of Colorado

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Stefan Tulich, Colorado State University Chia-Chi Wang, University of California, Irvine Hailan Wang, Princeton University Javier Zavala-Garay, University of Colorado Dance Zurovac-Jevtic, MIT

Meteorological Optics Topical Meeting

Charles Adler, St. Mary's College of Maryland William Beasley, University of Oklahoma Kurt Brandt, Brandt Innovative Technologies, Inc. Al Cooper, NCAR Stanley D. Gedzelman, City College of New York Helen Ghiradella, University at Albany Robert Greenler, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Javier Hernandez-Andres, Universidad de Granada Ward Hindman, City College of New York Richard Keen, University of Colorado Gunther Konnen, Royal Netherland Meteorological Institute Dean Langley, St. John's University Raymond Lee, Jr., U.S. Naval Academy Waldemar Lehn, University of Manitoba Walter Lyons, FMA Research, Inc. A. James Mallmann, Milwaukee School of Engineering Jan O. Mattsson, Lund Univeristy of Sweden Paul Neiman, NOAA-ETL John Pearl, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Russell D. Sampson, University of Alberta, Canada Kenneth Sassen, University of Utah Joseph Shaw, NOAA-ETL Mika Sillanpaa, Helsinki University of Technology, Finland Roland Stull, University of British Columbia, Canada Walt Tape, University of Alaska-Fairbanks Mark Vagins, University of California, Irvine Siebren van der Werf, Kernfysisch Versneller Instituut, The Netherlands Michael Vollmer, University of Applied Sciences Brandenburg, Germany Andrew Young, San Diego State University Clarence Zacher, AERO Resarch Global Climate Change and Society Program

Coordinators:

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ACD Director's Message

Daniel McKenna, ACD Director

The Atmospheric Chemistry Division�s (ACD) mission is:� (1) to understand the composition of the atmosphere, the processes that modify and control atmospheric composition, and how they may change in time due to natural and human induced changes;� (2) to provide relevant, reliable, accessible, unbiased, and timely information on atmospheric chemistry to government and society; and� (3) to act as an intellectual resource and enabler to the wider atmospheric sciences community by the development of new capabilities and methodologies, and the planning and execution of complex field experiments.

We advance our scientific mission through field and laboratory experiments that test theory or address fundamental questions. To support these experiments we develop leading-edge instrumentation, techniques, and observing systems to make new or better measurements.� ACD also develops and maintains a hierarchy of numerical models that are applied to laboratory experiments, field campaigns, and other process studies.� Our societal mission is further advanced� through the timely dissemination of results in the scientific literature and to the public, by contributing to national and international assessments, and by providing direct input to policy-makers. Our community mission is advanced by the organization of large-scale activities and facilities and by the provision of community instrumentation and models.� We assist in the scientific development of the next generation of atmospheric scientists by providing a wide range of formal and informal training opportunities.

ACD has three main research themes:� tropospheric chemistry, middle atmosphere chemistry and dynamics, and biosphere-chemistry-climate interactions.� The division is organized into 16 specialist groups whose individual missions cover a broad spectrum of instrumental, experimental and theoretical goals. Two groups undertake basic laboratory studies of gas-phase (Geoffrey Tyndall) and heterogeneous processes (David Hanson). Two groups use gas chromatography and mass spectroscopy techniques to measure a range of hydrocarbons, halocarbons, organic nitrates, and other species either from whole air samples (Elliot Atlas) or in situ samples (Eric Apel).� Two groups (Fred Eisele and Christopher Cantrell) specialize in chemical ionization mass spectroscopy) techniques to measure a wide range of compounds, including the two important radical species hydroxyl (OH) and hydroperoxy (HO2) radicals.� These measurements are complemented by the measurement of spectrally-resolved actinic fluxes allowing calculation of photolysis frequencies of a number of molecules of atmospheric importance (Richard Shetter).� The tunable diode laser group measures formaldehyde (CH2O) and radical sources (Alan Fried).� Biogenic trace gas fluxes to the atmosphere are determined by employing a variety of analytical techniques (Alex Guenther). Our measurement capabilities also include chemiluminescence measurement of many reactive and reservoir nitrogen species in the troposphere and lower stratosphere (Brian Ridley).� Global (Anne Smith), regional, and process models (Sasha Madronich) have been developed. There are several groups that specialize in remote sensing of the atmosphere. Column abundances of several stratospheric species are retrieved from both ground-based sites and airborne platforms (William Mankin). John Gille leads our space-borne remote sensing activities with the now-operational Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere instrument (David Edwards) and the High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder instrument (Gille). Satellite data analysis and assimilation (William Randel) ensure good exploitation of the wealth of satellite data available now and in the future.

ACD is the lead division for NSF�s Global Tropospheric Chemistry Program (GTCP).� We also collaborate with NCAR�s Climate and Global Dynamics Division (CGD), High Altitude Observatory (HAO), and Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division (MMM) on NCAR�s general circulation, regional, and whole-atmosphere community models.� These interactions also require collaboration with the Scientific Computing Division.� ACD works with the Atmospheric Technology Division (ATD) on instrumentation and field campaigns.� Division staff are active participants in cross-NCAR programs such as the Advanced Study Program�s Geophysical Turbulence Program and postdoctoral fellowships.

Division scientists also play an active role in many national and international community efforts, ranging from activities of the North American Research Strategy on Tropospheric Ozone (NARSTO) and International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC) to international ozone and climate assessments.

The NSF review of ACD�s science program took place on 23-25 October 2001.� A panel of reviewers appointed by NSF reviewed an ACD-prepared document which described ACD�s achievements over the past three years, work in progress (2001) and plans over the next two years.� The conclusion drawn by the panel was that �The past performance of the division has been very strong, the research being conducted is of high quality, it contributes to the NCAR mission and meets the NSF criteria.�� The panel provided excellent feedback on the future plans of the division and made recommendations for future planning, some of which were already in the early stages of development at the time the panel convened.�

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ATD Director's Message

Preparation for the NSF review of ATD, which occurred at the end of FY2001, gave all of us in the division the opportunity to reflect on the past half-decade since the last review, and to take stock of our accomplishments, plans, and resources.

We find a division of fundamental health and are gratified that the NSF-appointed review panel concurs. ATD's plans and services are based on several of NCAR's founding principles, including: providing facilities to university and other members of the atmospheric research community; collaborating with colleagues around the world in research, development and planning for future technologic and research needs, field programs, and new facilities; strong ties between research and technology developments, within the division itself, with other NCAR divisions, and with scientists at universities, laboratories, and institutes who share our research interests; and, finally, taking advantage of every possible opportunity to enhance student participation in the geosciences through their involvement in field programs, internships, postdoctoral appointments, and assistantships.

Highlights of the past fiscal year include continued progress on planning for and acquiring the HIAPER platform; successful field deployments of the GPS dropsonde and immediate scientific results of practical benefit in hurricane forecasting; data display improvements through use of a java-based 3-D data viewer; and progress in water-cycle studies that will culminate in a major field program in the spring of 2002, IHOP.

As always, at the heart of the progress and accomplishments is the ATD staff, a group of dedicated, innovative, and experienced people. The requirements of the research community are stringent and demanding; ATD staff consistently respond creatively to meet these requirements and succeed, as testimony from principal investigators shows. At all times we balance current activities with a vision of the future, and work to the highest level of excellence possible in both.

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ATD Divisional Activities

FY 2001 Field Project Support

In addition to the field projects summarized in the Highlights section, ATD supported other programs in FY2001; all projects supported are listed in the table below, and further information about them is available below as well as at http://www.atd.ucar.edu/projects.html .

Name of Project PI/Inst. Dates/locale ATD asset(s) Oct. 00 VTMX Parsons et al, NCAR MAPR, TAOS Salt Lake City Aug-Sept. 01 GPS dropsonde w/ CAMEX J. Rothermel, NASA Atlantic & automated launcher Gulf of Mexico ISCAT D. Davis, Geo. Tech Nov. 00-Jan. 01 ISFF SPOL, C-130 P. Hobbs, C. Maas, IMPROVE I Jan-Feb 01 Dropsonde, UWyo U. Wash. cloud radar Jan-Mar 01, Snowfall Reduction D. Lowenthal, DRI MAPR Stmboat Spgs, CO Apr 01, off shore ACE-ASIA B. Huebert, U. HA C-130, GPS Drpsnd. Japan, China & Vietnam O. Persson, PBL-AOE Aug 01 ISFF NOAA/ETL C-130, SABL, TDL, DYCOMS II B. Stevens, UCLA Jun-Jul 01 GPS Drpsnd Jun-Aug 01 PROPHET J. Moody, UVa ISFF UMich Aug-Sept 01 C-130, GPS Drpsnd, EPIC D. Raymond, NMIMT Eastern Pacific SABL

Verticle Transport and Mixing Experiment (VTMX) VTMX was conducted for the month of October 2000, in and around Salt Lake City, UT. The US DOE sponsored the program, which involved 60 personnel and 14 different research institutions, including ATD. As population in the western USA continues to increase, so do pollution and the importance of reliable weather forecasts. VTMX was aimed at studying how air moves in the valley, especially overnight during colder months; the results of the experiment are expected to be applicable in other cities with similar locations and topography. ATD deployed its tethered weather balloon (TAOS) and the MAPR. TAOS makes observations every second or so of winds, air pressure, and other conditions needed to understand and

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predict turbulence, while MAPR looks upward and measures winds in clear air. This was MAPR's first field expedition with its improved hardware and software, which added rapid-measurement capabilities.

MAPR deployed in VTMX

An Investigation of Sulfur Chemistry in the Antarctic Troposphere (ISCAT) ATD deployed one ISFF at the South Pole during the austral summer of 2000 - 2001 to quantify fluxes of NO from the snow pack and to gain a better understanding of mechanisms involved in the recycling of NO from nitrate ion adsorbed on ice surfaces. Under the ambient conditions observed at the South Pole, NO is believed to play a major role in regulating the levels of OH which, in turn, defines the oxidizing capacity of the near surface polar plateau. D. Davis (Georgia Tech.) led the research effort to evaluate the hypothesis that elevated NO levels seen in the South Pole mixed layer resulted from the NOx emission from the snow pack under the influence of UV radiation.

Snowfall Rate Reduction by Pollution Aerosols D. Lowenthal (DRI) led this project to study the physical processes underlying the relationships between pollution-derived sulfate concentrations and droplet number, between droplet number and size, and between deoplet size and snowfall rate. This year's program follows a pilot program that established a significant statistical relationship among these parameters.

ATD installed the Multiple Antenna Profililng Radar (MAPR) version of the ISFF below cloud base to measure temperature (by the RASS) and wind profiles. Data collected by the MAPR system in January 2001 near Steamboat Springs, CO will help to define aerosol-cloud interactions. Simultaneous, detailed measurements were taken of in-cloud microphysics and chemistry, and precipitation rate during mixed phase (cloud droplets and snow crystals) precipitation events from a mountaintop site while clouds enveloped the site. The data will be used to test a hypothesis that riming inhibition caused by aerosol-induced shifts in the cloud droplet distribution to smaller sizes decreases snowfall rates. In addition to operating the site, ATD personnel will collaborate with Lowenthal in data analysis. Satellite image of dust moving from Mongolia over the Pacific and later discerned in samples taken during Snowfall Rate Reduction Program in Northwest Colorado.

PBL-AOE The scientific goal of PBL-AOE, led by O. Persson of NOAA/ETL, with funding provideded by Stockholm University, was to study the Arctic boundary layer (ABL) in order to document transitory features found there. These features include low-level jets, low- level clouds, gravity waves, and microfronts, all of which affect the transport of DMS, aerosols, and other atmospheric constituents as well as the development of the boundary layer itself. The AOE data set is publicly available via the website. These are an initial values computed during the field project; no editing or quality control has been applied.

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ATD's SSSF installed and manned two stations on pack ice near the North Pole to form a triangle 7-10 km on a side, with a tower site near the Swedish Maritime Administration icebreaker, the Oden, as the third vertex. These stations were deployed for most of a three- week drift. Another station was deployed for two short (4 and 20- The Swedish icebreaker Oden near the North Pole in hour) periods. It was also deployed for five days at a lead edge to PBL-AOE, and the nearby ISSF station. study aerosol emission from the open water.

Program for Research on Oxidants: Photochemistry, Emissions and Transport (PROPHET) From the end of June to mid-August 2001, one ISFF was deployed at the University of Michigan Biological Station. J. Moody (U. Virginia) and M.A. Carroll (U. Mich) requested the system for a second year, to support the educational component of their research program, funded jointly by NSF, DOE and the University of Michigan. PROPHET's research goal is to investigate the fundamental processes that determine ozone and related oxidant levels at the rural forested site in Northern Michigan.

The ISS installed in Northwest PROPHET students launching sounding

Michigan balloon

PROPHET has a significant two-part educational component, one aimed at a residential research experience for undergraduates and the other at interdisciplinary graduate education and research training. Ten university mentors worked with the students involved to operate the ISSS as well as a NOAA dropsonde profiling system that was involved. ATD provided engineering and maintenance backup and cooperation, as well as lectures on the science and observing technologies involved in the program.

The East Pacific Investigation of Climate Processes in the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere System (EPIC) The overall purpose of EPIC was to understand the dynamics of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system of the eastern Pacific region. This first phase of EPIC consisted of a study of the cross-equatorial Hadley circulation, its spatial and temporal https://web.archive.org/web/20060901170008/http://www.eol.ucar.edu/dir_off/asr01/ASR01activities.html[12/27/2016 1:35:48 PM] ATD ASR 2001 - ATD Activities

variability and associated oceanic processes along the 95W line of TAO buoys. D.Raymond (New Mexico Tech.) and colleagues used the C-130, equipped with a GPS dropsonde system and SABL, to study the dynamics, thermodynamics and cloud physics of the Hadley circulation. The project occurred during August and September 2001.

Developments in Ground-Based Observing Systems

S-POL During last winter's IMPROVE I program, ATD implemented real-time full bandwidth transmission of data from S-Pol to the University of Washington. ATD also developed full remote control of the radar. Both developments enable 24-hour operation of the radar with a reduced field staff.

Rotary wave-guide switches Rotary wave-guide switches developed by ATD for S-POL have been incorporated in NASA's polarimetric radar. These switches allow rapid pulse- to-pulse switching of the radar beam with very good separation.

ISFF hygrothermometer radiation shield In-situ temperature and relative humidity sensors must be enclosed in a shield designed to provide good exposure of the sensors to the ambient air while significantly reducing exposure to short and long wave radiation. Optimization of the radiation shield design is particularly critical for remote meteorological stations that have limited power available for mechanical aspiration of the sensors within the shield. T. Horst and S. Semmer evaluated the design of the current ISFF hygrothermometer radiation shield based on wind tunnel measurements of shield aspiration rates as a function of ambient wind speed, field intercomparisons of different shield geometries, and calculations of shield performance using both analytical and numerical models. A CU engineering graduate student, B. Fichera, used commercial fluid dynamics software to simulate the performance of a range of shield geometries. The results of both field intercomparisons and numerical simulations suggest that the temperature errors of the current shield design with a flared inlet are on the order of 0.1 to 0.2 degrees C. Without the flared inlet and for ambient winds above 5 m/s, temperature errors on sunny days can exceed 1 degree C.

Icing Detector Experience from recent projects has shown that during polar deployments ice build-up on the pyrgeometer radiometers is difficult to detect in the data, since ice, air, and cloud temperatures can be quite similar. With stations accessible only occasionally and with difficulty, manual detection of sensor icing was impractical. ATD engineers constructed a "dummy sensor" with an internal optical detector to detect ice on the radiometer dome, a useful addition to ATD's cold-weather field programs.

FDI RIM on MAPR Frequency Domain Interferometry Range IMaging is a technique to greatly improve the range resolution of a wind profiler. One of ATD's ASP postdocs, Tian Yu, has been working on this technique with a NOAA profiler. In August, he applied the technique to MAPR. In late August and early September ATD carried out a field campaign at Marshall in which RTF ran MAPR and TAOS (below) to support instrument intercomparison with a lidar operated by a group from Johns Hopkins.

Application of NIMA to ISS profilers NIMA (NCAR Improved Moment Algorithm) software developed in RAP, helps to reanalyze and clean up wind profiler measurements. RTF adapted the package to ATD's ISS profilers. ATD ran the system for the PROPHET project and prepares to run it again for IMPROVE II.

Study of the absolute precision of wind profiler radial velocity measurements In collaboration with Goodrich (CU Math Dept.) RTF staff investigated limits to the precision of wind profiler measurements. Using simultaneous measurements of radial velocity from a wind profiler and a lidar, RTF staff removed mean components and turbulent variances of the wind, leaving a remainder primarily due to instrumental precision of the two systems. For the profiler, this precision theoretically becomes a function of signal to noise ratios and spectral widths of the Doppler spectrum.

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Study of the theoretical precision of spaced antenna wind profiler measurements With Doviak, Lataitis, Zhang, RTF staff derived measurement standard deviations associated with several implementations of spaced antenna wind measurements to determine which implementation to use for a given set of radar parameters and atmospheric conditions.

TAOS Development ATD tested a prototype new sonde in a recent in house experiment. These tests proved that the proposed new sonde design will require about one third the power of the previous sonde, will be about two thirds the weight of the previous sonde, will vastly improve data quality, and will be user friendly, allowing easy integration of third party and other sensors. The high wind speed balloon will extend operations to allow for sampling in stable winds up to 45 mph. A new trailer will protect balloons from the elements when not being used and will hold a fully inflated balloon so limited helium must be vented between flights. The Hudson Valley Ambient Meteorology Study (HVAMS) requested TAOS for a project in September and October of next year.

Developments in Airborne Observing Systems

SABL SABL in a pod on the C-130 supported Ace-Asia, DYCOMS II and Epic. For the C-130 deployments, modifications were made to the pod structure to allow better serviceability of equipment and to maintain positive pressure throughout a flight, thus reducing the possibility of moisture infiltration causing arcing and/or damaging optics in the laser head. These modifications made a very positive impact on the reliability of SABL in a pod.

Deployment of RDMA for airborne aerosol particle measurements The Radial Differential Mobility Analyzer measures atmospheric particles in the nucleation mode size range ~8-130 nm diameter to indicate regions where new particle formation occurs. This instrument, developed in collaboration with Princeton University, NCAR/ASP, and the National University of Mexico, was used on the NCAR C-130 during the ACE- Asia and DYCOMS II field projects.

HRDL Development In collaboration with NOAA's Environment Technology Lab, the High Resolution Doppler Lidar was reconfigured on a smaller optical to enable HRDL to fly on the German (DLR) falcon aircraft during the IHOP program in 2002. Further development will allow the HRDL to fit in a C-130 wing pod.

Improvements to the Particle Measuring Systems Upgrades to one-half of the existing Particle Measuring System (PMS) probes involving new electronics and communication systems were completed during FY 2001. They were successfully deployed in ACE-ASIA, DYCOMS II, and EPIC field projects.

Wyoming Cloud Radar ATD mounted the University of Wyoming short wavelength cloud radar on the C-130. This development brings a new tool to ATD users, extends the utility of the radar system, limited up to now to King Air deployments, and represents a high level of cooperation between Wyoming and ATD.

Multichannel Cloud Radiometer (MCR) ATD hired a scientific visitor to improve the operational procedures for routine calibration of this instrument and to develop additional value-added software so that users will have robust tools to utilize data from this instrument. The instrument was deployed in a C-130 pod for the DYCOMS II project.

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Developments in Data and Network Services

Prototype Java based 3-D data multi-platform data viewer In a joint effort with UNIDATA staff, ATD's Research Data Processing (RDP) group developed a prototype Java-based 3-D multi-platform data viewer. This viewer demonstrates the ability to write a platform independent, pure Java application that can be used to display observational data in three dimensions from multiple ATD platforms. ATD and UNIDATA will enhance this package to replace many of the functions Zebra provided in the past.

3-D rendering of SPOL data using the new multi-platform data viewer.

Web-based ATD data retrieval This tool supports all data archived during and since calendar year 2000. The tool provides user access to more than 8 terabytes of ATD data via the web, ftp and the SCD Mass Store.

RAF Data Input System (RAFDIS) Development Software engineers in ATD's Research Aviation Facility (RAF) designed and implemented this software package to allow RAF staff to enter flight report data and flight comments in Web browser forms for archival in text database files. The package also includes a Web form and Perl CGI script, which allows RAFDIS users to generate flight reports from existing database entries. After an initial test during ACE-Asia, the system will become a routine component of aircraft deployments. In addition, K. Laursen designed a new graphical interface now used as the primary site navigation tool on all new field project Web pages.

Radiosonde Quality Control and Message Generation ATD refined and modified the Aspen radiosonde quality control package to meet requirements of NCAR and of the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron (the Hurricane Hunters). The Aspen program allows detailed examination and manipulation of individual soundings. BatchAspen can process large numbers of soundings without operator interaction, producing output data files and WMO formatted messages with automatic quality control. Users made more than 100 downloads of Aspen in the past year; about 50% of these were by international scientists.

ISFF Software Developments ATD staff converted all ISFF software to Linux, to allow all ISFF base computer operations to run on a laptop PC and to significantly reduce shipping, space, and power requirements during recent deployments in remote locations (the North and South Poles). Having this software run under a public-domain operating system also allows ATD to share it with a wide variety of non-NCAR users. Access to all ISFF data, including individual samples from high-rate sensors, is now possible

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via the WWW. ATD staff wrote a WWW interface to the NCAR Mass-Store system to allow such users to obtain these archived data files.

ATD Research

Hurricane/Tornado Research Using the Velocity Track Display (VTD) technique, axisymmetric and asymmetric circulations of the Mulhall tornado were successfully deduced from a 20-min period of single Doppler radar data collected with the University of Oklahoma Doppler on Wheels (DOW) system. The VTD-derived axisymmetic circulations allowed the first estimations of Swirl ratios from single Doppler radar observations. Estimated Swirl ratios during a 10-min period (10 volumes) were between 3 and 5, consistent with multiple vortices detected in this tornado, numerical simulations, and simulations in tornado vortex chambers.

Boundary layer turbulence and fluxes RTF scientists, in collaboration with scientists from NCAR/MMM, Johns Hopkins Univ., and Penn. State Univ., investigated interactions between small and large scale turbulent eddies. Data collected in September 2000 during the SGS (Sub-Grid Scale) 2000 field project were used to explore statistical properties of turbulence partitioned into spatially- resolved and sub-grid-scale components, as assumed in numerical Large Scale Eddy Simulation (LES) models. Preliminary work suggests that sub-grid-scale stresses are not aligned with resolved-scale strains, an assumption found in almost every LES parameterization of the sub-grid-scale stress tensor.

Tropical Convection The Nauru-99 project was carried out around the central Pacific island of Nauru using two research vessels, aircraft, and stations on the island. ATD operated two wind profilers and a variety of other instruments on the R/V Mirai. ATD scientists analysed heating of the boundary layer by the island as observed by RASS measurements on the R/V Mirai as it cruised around the island.

Surface energy budgets ATD scientists and international colleagues designed the EBEX2000 field experiment to determine why in situ measurements often cannot produce a complete surface energy balance over plant canopies. The magnitude of heat storage in the plant canopy and ground was evaluated using soil temperature gradient sensors designed by ATD and plant samples made by researchers at the Univ. of California. On average, storage in the canopy was small though short-term storage can be quite large. However, heat flux into the soil was quite large -- as much as 30% of net radiation -- and heat storage in the top few cm of soil can be as large as the total flux.

Biogeochemical fluxes ISFF was deployed during ISCAT2000 to determine if emissions of NO from the snow pack could cause high levels of atmospheric concentrations of NO observed during ISCAT1998. Modified Bowen ratio method estimates were found to be larger than those estimated by earlier studies, but consistent with the higher NO levels seen during both ISCAT1998 and ISCAT2000. As part of this analysis, ATD and MMM scientists examined methods for determining the height of the atmospheric mixed layer from near-surface tower data; early results indicate that spectral methods can produce reasonable and consistent estimates of the height.

ATD Table of Contents

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Highlights

Low Turbulence Inlet (LTI) Deployed in ACE Asia

Collecting coarse aerosols (up to 10 microns) by diffuser and curved-tube samplers on research aircraft has been less efficient than needed, and the LTI was designed to improve sampling of such particle populations. The LTI was developed jointly by scientists from the University of Hawaii and Denver University, and ATD's Design and Fabrication Services (DFS). It employs a porous tip through which the air being sampled is drawn, with turbulence being suppressed by suction. This prevents separation of the boundary layer. The efficiency of the LTI is near enough to unity to produce reliable studies of the distributions and impacts of both mineral dust and sea salt; this was demonstrated last year in test flights in the Carribbean flow by the C-130 (see ATD's ASR 2000) outfitted with the LTI and three other samplers for comparison.

A three-dimensional portrayal of the LTI produced by ATD's Desgn and Fabrication CAD system. The first research deployment of the LTI occurred in March-April 2001, in the Asian-Pacific Regional Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE-Asia), led by B. Huebert of the University of Hawaii. ACE-Asia was designed to improve understanding of how atmospheric aerosol particles affect Earth's climate system. This field program is the fourth in a series organized by the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry project. The field program took place off the coast of China, Japan, and Korea, where many types of aerosol particles of widely-varying composition and sizes, derived from one of the largest aerosol source region on Earth, are to be found. Results from ACE-Asia will improve our understanding of how atmospheric aerosols influence the chemical and radiative properties of Earth's atmosphere and our ability to predict how changes in aerosol composition and concentration may influence future changes in the climate system.

A schematic depiction characterizing ACE-Asia's research goals.

Many institutions and scientists from around the world participated in ACE-Asia, which was supported by a number of US and foreign agencies, and employed a variety of observing platforms and systems. ATD's participation was through deployment of the NSF C-130, equipped with the LTI and SABL. Air leaving Eastern Asia was surveyed to characterize aerosol physical, chemical, and optical properties emphasizing variations with altitude and distance from shore. The data collected will be used, along with data from the three previous ACE projects, to improve modeling the effects of different emission scenarios on Earth's climate.

GPS Dropsonde in the Field: CAMEX and DYCOMS II

The GPS Dropsonde, developed by ATD, is now in use in six nations, on 20 aircraft and in operations of the USAF and NOAA. The utility and flexibility of the Dropsonde was significantly enhanced with the development of an automatic pod-based launcher. This was a joint development project between ATD and NASA Dryden. The launcher was successfully deployed during a NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center sponsored project called the Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX), led by J. Rothermel of NASA.

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The Automated Dropsonde Launcher installed on the ER-2 The launcher was installed on NASA's ER-2, and was connected to the experiment control panel in the cockpit. ATD's Research Technology Facility (RTF) modified an existing data system to fit and operate in a sealed pressure container. RTF also replaced the existing GPS codeless receiver in the dropsonde with a full code correlating GPS receiver that provides position, altitude, speed and direction, and, as well, built 16 GPS Dropsondes for tests conducted at Dryden and another 60 for use in CAMEX. DFS designed, fabricated, and tested the pressure vessel, and the sixteen-tube launcher.

CAMEX was carried out in August and September 2001 over the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Its main goal was to improve hurricane forecasting models by obtaining high quality profiles of temperature, humidity, and wind that could be used to improve the parameterization of the dynamic and thermodynamic structure of the tropical cyclone. Improved parameterizations would lead to refined hurricane models, particularly with respect to intensification and tracking.

In this first deployment of the automated launcher, the GPS Dropsonde, in eight out of eight drops into the inner core of Hurricane Erin, delivered excellent thermodynamic and wind data. One sonde was dropped into the eye of the hurricane; it functioned perfectly and produced the first profile of eye conditions from 65,000 feet to sea level.

The Dynamics and Chemistry of Marine Stratocumulus Phase I Entrainment Studies Experiment (DYCOMS II), an NSF-sponsored project carried out off the coast of southern California. The primary research goal of DYCOMS II, led by B. Stevens (UCLA), was to evaluate large-eddy simulations (LES) of nocturnal stratocumulus.

ATD technicians and engineers outfitted the NSF C-130 with the GPS Dropsonde system, the University of Wyoming cloud radar, SABL, and instruments to make fast in situ meansurements of trace gases, including H20, O3, and DMS. The data collected will provide an accurate description of the large-scale environment and turbulent fluxes within, and at the top of, the PBL. Entrainment measurements were used to test parameterizations developed on the basis of LES, and accompanying data provide additional information needed to develop a suite of test cases for subsequent simulations. Data collected will also support secondary objectives of DYCOMS II, including testing recently proposed techniques to measure large-scale divergence; testing our ability to close scalar budgets under ideal situations; and increasing our understanding of the statistical signature of the diurnal cycle in marine stratocumulus.

The IMPROVE Field Project

The overall research goal of the Improvement of Microphysical Parameterization through Observational Verification Experiment IMPROVE) is to gather a comprehensive data set, including both basic state (eg wind, temperature, humidity) and cloud microphysical and precipition information that will allow the verification and improvement of the moist processes in mesoscale models. Funded primarily by the NSF, IMPROVE also received support from the USNavy and DOE; the project was led by C. Maas and P. Hobbs of the University of Washington.

IMPROVE-I was carried out in January-February 200l, off the shore of Washington and Oregon; its focus was on offshore frontal precipitation with a particular empahsis on improving quantitative precipitation forecasting in mesoscale models. ATD installed the S-Pol radar near the Pacific Ocean and the radar operated in a 24/7 mode for the duration of the project. Eleven Intensive Observational Periods (IOPs) occurred during the one-month period. The Wyoming cloud radar sampled 14 moving rainbands that were simultaneously scanned by the S-POL dual polarization radar. The rainbands sampled were associated with the upper level cold fronts of warm type occlusions, surface cold and occluded fronts, and warm frontal type within warm occlusions. Initial assessment of the data including use of NCAR's MMM5 forecast model as well as the radar data, indicates that IMPROVE I was a success. The project evaluation form states "A key to the success of the project was the willing spirit, the competence, and the facilities of ATD."

The NSF-NCAR Aircraft Fleet

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FY 2001 brought important changes in the NCAR/ATD-managed NSF fleet housed at Jefferson County Airport near Boulder. These are summarized here.

Retirement of the Electra

After three decades of service to the atmospheric research community around the world, the 40+ year old Electra was retired. Her retirement was commemorated by D. Carlson, R. Wakimoto (UCLA), and J. Moyers (NSF) at the Annual UCAR members meeting in October 2001.

The NSF Electra in its early research configuration with the nose boom, during TOGA COARE, during the first ELDORA deployment and on its last flight during MAP.

Acquistion of the HIAPER

After more than a decade of community-wide planning, the long-standing need for a high altitude, long range medium sized jet to serve the geosciences research community became closer to a reality. Gulfstream, partnering with Lockheed Martin and Aeromet, Inc., submitted a proposal to build and modify the a G-IV that will meet research needs for the next several decades. An Evaluation and Selection Team was appointed by the NCAR director; it reviewed the proposal for responsiveness and found that it met all the requirements of the RFP. The HIAPER Advisory Committee, chaired by D. Jorgensen of NOAA's FSL, reviewed the results of the evaluation and endorsed proceeding with negotiations with the vendor.

POST SCRIPT: Although previews aren't the norm for ASR's we'd like to note that successful negotiations with Gulfstream were held early in December 2001, and a contract was signed before the end of the month. Proceeding with the negotiations was enabled by appropriation of $35million for HIAPER, to NSF and NCAR. The green airframe is to be delivered by Gulfstream to Lockheed for modification in June of 2002, and delivery of the modified HIAPER to NCAR and NSF is scheduled to occur in the Fall of 2004. Next year's report will be able to describe significant progress on the modifications.

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A schematic representation of the HIAPER aircraft, produced by Gulfstream and Lockheed showing the many modifications to be made to produce a research-ready aircraft. IMG SRC="images/hiaper4.gif">

ELDORA on the P-3

Retirement of the Electra meant finding a new home for the Eldora, and ATD is working closely with NRL, NADEP and NAVAIR to get the NRL P-3 ready for deployment in the International H2O Project (IHOP_2002), scheduled for late spring/early summer 2002. While the airplane was in Jacksonville, FL for a routine but major inspection, NADEP modified the NRL P-3 to accommodate the ELDORA radar and rotodome, previously installed on the NCAR Electra. NADEP had done a similar modification to the Electra, when ELDORA was originally put on the aircraft in 1991. In addition to adding the aft fuselage empennage structure, NADEP also rewired the interior of the airplane to accommodate not only ELDORA but additional IHOP instrumentation including the CNRS Leandre II differential absorption lidar, a set of basic state parameters instrumentation and ATD's Tunable Diode Laser (TDL).

NRL P-3 tail modified for TDL water vapor instrument to be mounted installation of ELDORA on the NRL P-3

Because the IHOP scientists requested that Leandre be operated pointing horizontally as well as vertically up and down, DFS, in collaboration with B. Patten, a former NOAA employee, designed and built a fairing that includes a turning mirror. Platform Systems

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Inc.(PSI), a commercial design and application firm that routinely contracts with NRL, helped NCAR to build and repackage the ELDORA equipment into 20G standard racks to comply with Navy requirements. PSI will also help with the installation of the TDL, which will be mounted onto a pallet system to the outside of the aircraft and with the installation of two communications antennas.

Working with NRL has been a learning experience for ATD. All modifications done to the airplane, inside the aircraft as well as to the outside, have to comply with Naval Air Systems Command design requirements. In addition, all ATD and project personnel who want to fly on the aircraft, have to pass a two-day swim and survival training class at Patuxent River in Maryland.

Turning mirror fairing Stalwart users geared for the Navy's for the Leandre II lidar "Swim and Survival" test.

C-130 Refurbishment

The C-130 was taken to SPAR in Edmonton, Canada for her required inspection in September of 2000, as reported in last year's ASR. After replacement of the four high- time engines, with low-time engines (from NASA's C-130-B), and the rewiring required to accommodate those engines, the routine refurbishment began and was completed in January of 2001, just in time for the C-130 to fly to support ACE-Asia. This "routine" work included overhaul of the propellers, replacement and rebuilding of major structures, such as the landing gear and the flaps, a corrosion-based inspection and application of improved corrosion coating, repair or replacement of about 300 other individual items, and a new paint job. In an interesting note, stripping the plane of its multiple coats of paint and replacing with new paint, reduced the weight of the plane by a few hundred pounds.

The C-130 at the refurbishment shop Planning for future use of the C-130 to meet community needs is an ongoing process, and users are invited to register their needs, plans, and opinions on an RAF website which summarizes current capabilities of the plane and its instrumentation, and seeks community input as a part of planning for the future.

NSF's C-130 aloft in ACE-Asia.

ATD Design and Fabrication Services

At the heart of observational sciences lies the instruments and equipment to gather data. Scientists frequently have strong engineering streaks and can envision and even render to paper schemes to achieve the measurements they want. Enter ATD’s Design and Fabrication Services.

Since its earliest days and springing from a field of research also strongly dependent on observational studies – solar physics – NCAR has had a first-class machine shop that over the years has evolved to its modern day version in ATD. Complete with the most advanced CAD capabilities, and computer numerical controlled machine tools. DFS has produced an impressive array of specialized instruments and equipment. Over 960 projects dating to 1963 have been supported.

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Jobs are brought to the group in many different forms, from conceptual information which requires input from the design group, to complete detailed designs generated by the customer. On occasion, the customer supplies solid digital models of the instrument and its components electronically. These are opened using any one of a variety of Computer Aided Machining (CAM) software tools which are maintained in house. These CAM programs produce the tool paths required to produce the part. The material is selected and mounted in the machine tool, the tool path is downloaded to the machine via RS-232 link and the machining operations are performed. This method minimizes the requirement for detailed mechanical drawings and can greatly shorten production time.

Here we demonstrate how an instrument is made, from original concept through design, fabrication and testing, before it is ready for research use. We have chosen the 4 Channel Chemical Ionization Mass Spectrometer as our example.

In the early stages of the design, hand drawn sketches are effective in communicating the basic concepts and requirements of the instrument.

Conceptual sketches used to determine basic dimensional parameters of the Main OH Inlet for the 4 channel CIMS instrument.

This basic sketch was used to determine the routing of various gas and vacuum plumbing lines, as well as the basic layout of the main components of the HNO3 Inlet for the 4 Channel CIMS.

Once the basic concept is conveyed to the designer, a set of solid models of the components are detailed and put into an assembly. A very useful tool used during the design development process is provided by the software vendor SolidWorks - Download Software. The solid models can be shipped via the internet to the customer, opened and viewed using the free viewer, which provides the ability to rotate the images, do cross section views and zoom in and out to magnify details of the models. A customer has the ability to do a design review at a remote location and discuss the design simultaneously with the designer. This has proven to be an extremely effective tool.

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A special cutaway view is used to look "inside" the assembly. Having this Different colors are used for separate capability aides the designer and the Scientist in determining proper treatment of components for better visualization of the all aspects of the design. An extremely useful tool, at this stage, is the SolidWorks assembly. This is the solid model representation Viewer. of the HNO3 Inlet.

Once the solid model is produced a design review is held with all interested parties. Upon review and approval by the investigator, the parts are detailed and hard copies are printed so that all dimensional information is available to the instrument maker in the shop.

A detailed mechanical drawing of the heart of the CIMS inlet. All dimensional data, hole callouts, tolerances , material, special process such as heat treatment and plating are called out on the drawing. Files including thousands of drawings dating back to 1960 are maintained by DFS.

In the machine shop, the raw material is set up in the machine and In order to insure proper fit of all components, parts are material is removed. With the use of highly advanced software and assembled, and to some extent, tested in the shop prior to computer controlled machine tools, complex shapes can be delivery to the customer. In some cases advanced testing manufactured that were not possible a few years ago. of the assemblies is required.

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3D surfacing procedure being performed on an aluminum strut part. The part is being held in two precision vices. The jointed tubes direct cooling fluid to the part that helps remove chips and provide a better finish. A complete set of fully machined and anodized (gold) aluminum and stainless steel parts for the Cloud Particle Extinctionometer. Usually some final fitting is required in order to insure proper operation of complex assemblies. Almost every instrument manufactured at NCAR is an on-of-a-kind device, requiring highly specialized instrument makers and designers to provide reliable equipment without the benefit of producing several prototypes to prove and refine designs. The designs must provide good value and flawless performance the first time they are implemented.

The fully assembled Cloud Particle Extinctionometer. Wind tunnel testing of the CIMS inlet provided valuable information on the performance of the shroud design. The shroud allows the inlet to achieve an angle of attack of 24 degrees with no detectable wall contamination at the geometric center of the inlet region (Mauldin, R.L., Tanner, D.J., Fox, J.R., Mouch T.L., Scully, T.S. Eisele, F.L.). This is important when measuring highly reactive gas phase components of the atmosphere. This design has been effectively implemented on a number of aerosol instruments as well. In most cases, instruments are developed with a particular experiment deadline as the time limiting factor. The 4 Channel CIMS was no exception. Its maiden flight was for the TOPSE mission in the early spring of 2000.

The 4 Channel Chemical Ionization Mass Spectrometer mounted on the NCAR C-130 Aircraft for TOPSE.

https://web.archive.org/web/20060901162827/http://www.eol.ucar.edu/dir_off/asr01/ASR01highlights.html[12/27/2016 1:36:41 PM] ATD ASR 2001 - ATD Highlights

The Search for the Elusive Water Vapor Measurements

The importance to weather forecasting and climate studies of understanding water vapor in the lower troposphere is unquestioned. NCAR has established a research initiative as part of its strategic planning, called "The Water Cycle Across Scales." Along with other NCAR divisions, ATD is participating in this initiative by bringing to bear its strengths in several areas: research, development, and field experiment planning and support . Our focus is on water vapor.

In the research arena RTF scientists have prepared the Scanning Water Vapor DIAL design study. Using Leandre 2 and MPI water vapor DIAL data, showing that significant boundary layer moisture variability (~1.5 g/kg) occurs even in the absence of horizontal convective rolls, frontal zones or gust fronts. (See below for more information about DIAL.)

In collaboration with R. Borys and D. Lowenthal (DRI), ATD staff investigated the ability of wind profilers to detect regions of riming in snow and the measurement of ice crystal size distributions from profiler Doppler spectra. The research suggested an ability to detect riming with reasonable certainty. Measurements of size distributions were found to require simultaneous measurement of air and snow motion. Dissimilar fall speeds associated with ice crystals having the same diameter but different crystal habits introduce uncertainty in estimated size distributions.

RTF scientists showed that for coincident soundings taken during TRMM LBA in 1999, VIZ-measured RH was drier than Vaisala- measured RH by more than 10% for RHs from 20% to 60%, but more moist than Vaisala-measured RH by ~5% at RHs>60%. After correcting the dry bias in Vaisala humidity data, Vaisala and VIZ humidity data agreed well at RHs >60%. Understanding the dry bias in VIZ data at RHs from 20% to 60% requires further work.

In collaboration with A. Dai (NCAR/CGD) and R. Ware (UCAR GST), RTF studied diurnal variations of temperature and water vapor profiles by analyzing microwave profiling radiometer (MWRP) data from a system deployed for several months in Oklahoma. Water vapor mixing ratios (MR) in the upper troposphere (above ~6 km) were significantly higher in the early morning hours. MR in the lower troposphere seemed lower in the morning than in the afternoon and the night with a minimum around 08 LST and a maximum around 18 LST. Relative humidity showed similar diurnal variations as MR in the middle and upper troposphere but was out of phase with MR in the lower troposphere. Total precipitable water vapor peaked around 17 LST. The observed diurnal upper tropospheric variations appear to be linked to large-scale vertical motions, downward from late morning to afternoon and upward from midnight to early morning.

A three-month nowcasting experiment, the Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project, ended December 2000. NCAR fielded its Auto-nowcaster expert system. Along with other international teams, RTF staff began extensive evaluation of the capabilities of all systems to forecast convective storms. RTF staff found that explicit ingest of boundary layer winds and convergence lines into the expert systems was essential to successful nowcasts of storm initiation, growth and decay. Retrieval of boundary layer winds using high-resolution observations and a boundary layer model showed significant skill. RTF staff identified the lack of detailed stability fields and the failure to include orographic influences on storm evolution as primary areas that need attention. Overall, the project emphasized the need for human participation in the nowcasting process, the need for forecaster training, and the need for close coordination between users and forecasters. Synergism generated by this project will accelerate worldwide development of nowcasting systems.

ATD is collaborating with NOAA's Advanced Technique Development Division in the development of a compact, low-cost, eye- safe, automated remote-sensing lidar that is capable of continuously profile water vapor. Water vapor concentrations will be measured using the Differential Absorption Lidar (thus the name DIAL) technique. See http://www2.etl.noaa.gov/DIAL.html. Dial will be deployed in the upcoming IHOP, in which ATD will be involved scientifically and in a support mode to the many scientists who will participate.

The International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) is a field experiment scheduled to take place over the Southern Great Plains (SGP) of the United States from 13 May to 30 June 2002. The chief aim of IHOP_2002 is to improve characterization of the four-dimensional (4-D) distribution of water vapor and its application to improving the understanding and prediction of convection. The region is an optimal location due to existing experimental and operational facilities, strong variability in moisture, and active convection. Several community workshops have been organized by ATD to plan for IHOP, whose lead funding agendy is the NSF.

ATD Table of Contents

https://web.archive.org/web/20060901162827/http://www.eol.ucar.edu/dir_off/asr01/ASR01highlights.html[12/27/2016 1:36:41 PM] ATD ASR 2001 - Education

Education and Outreach

ATD supports NCAR and UCAR's overall goals to contribute to education at all levels, and we enthusiastically take advantage of every practical opportunity to do so. ATD staff participate, for example, in NCAR-wide events such as "Super Science Saturday", as shown in the photo. .

ATD supported graduate student participation in all field projects and hosted four ASP Post-Docs and two Graduate Research Assistants whose activities contributed to many of the research and instrument development efforts described in previous sections. ATD staff conducted numerous public tours of ATD systems in the field. ATD maintained and enhanced its observing system information web site, used by teaching faculty who need technical information about specific instrument systems.

Field project student participation: Two ATD staff, B. Brown and S. Cohn, delivered lectures, conducted demonstrations, and guided student project and reports for graduate and undergraduate students involved in the PROPHET project (see project write-up in Activities section). These staff also supported student participation in an ad hoc summer instrumentation intercomparison involving ATD and John Hopkins Univ. S. Cohn joined with J. Hallett (DRI) in planning a second Reno Basin educational program. ATD nominated the activities of Cohn and Brown for a UCAR annual education award. J. Stith proposed an instrument testing and education program using the C-130.

Undergraduate engineering students: ATD sponsored three engineering students for summer work. These students came from three different schools and three different backgrounds. All three students were employed in various jobs including some fieldwork. They participated in real life engineering deadlines, projects, reports, and design to get a genuine sense of work in an engineering research and development environment. ATD benefitted from their help during a time of critical deadlines, and expects to invite these three students back next summer and add two additional new students.

In his post-summer evaluation of the time spent at ATD, one student said: "The summer has been an excellent opportunity for me to gain hands-on experience in all aspects of engineering....I was given the chance to help with the production, testing and troubleshooting of the sondes. One of the things that I have enjoyed the most about this experience is that I had to come up with solutions to problems on my own."

Student Visits: Six graduate students from the Univ. of Arizona visited NCAR for two days, August 15-16, 2001. They received a description of ATD by B. Rilling, S. Oncley, and B. Brown and toured ATD/RAF. The students greatly appreciated the attention.

Other student opportunities: Michael Bell (Metro-State College, Denver) worked on the analysis of Hurricane Danny using KMOB and KLIX WSR-88D data. Bell helped compare mean tangential winds and reflectivity patterns from the two radars between as a function of radii and time.

ATD Table of Contents

https://web.archive.org/web/20060901170015/http://www.eol.ucar.edu/dir_off/asr01/ASR01edu.html[12/27/2016 1:38:09 PM] ATD ASR 2001 - Community Service

Community Services

Editorships

Steve Cohn Associate Editor, Journal of Applied Meteorology

Krista Laursen, Associate Editor, Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology (JTECH).

Tammy Weckwerth, Associate Editor, Monthly Weather Review

External Scientific, Policy, Educational Committees, & Advisory Panels

Steve Cohn

Member, American Meteor. Soc. (AMS) Committee on Measurements

James Dye

Member, American Geophysics Union (AGU) Committee on Atmospheric and Space Electricity

Charles Frush

Member, The international Society for Optical Engineering (SPIE) Member, American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) Member, Institute for Electrical and Electronic Engineering (IEEE) Member, Association for Computer Machinery (AMC)

Sabine Goeke

Science research mentor with the SOARS program (Significant Opportunities in Atmospheric Reserch and Science), Yarice Rodriguez, Estimating snowfall rates using polarimetric radar data.

Terry Hock

Chair, AVAPS Users Group Member, Institute for Electrical and Electronic Engineering (IEEE)

Jeff Keeler

National Research Council Committee on Weather Radar Technology beyond NEXRAD

Chair, National Weather Service NEXRAD Open RDA Advisory Board

Larry Radke

Member, EPA Review and Advisory Panel on Atmospheric Mercury

https://web.archive.org/web/20060901170004/http://www.eol.ucar.edu/dir_off/asr01/ASR01community.html[12/27/2016 1:38:31 PM] ATD ASR 2001 - Community Service

Member, Airborne Remote Sensing Conference Program Panel

Ron Ruth

Member, American Meteor. Soc. (AMS)

Jeff Stith

Member, International Commission on Clouds and Precipitation

Joseph VanAndel

Executive Committee, Front Range UNIX Users Group Member, Association of Computing Machinery

Tammy Weckwerth

Member, 30th International Radar Conference Program Committee Co-Chair, Scientific Steering Committee for IHOP_2002 Member, American Meteor. Soc. (AMS) Committee on Measurements Member, United States Weather Research Program (USWRP) Presentation Panel

Jim Wilson

Chair, Review Panel for Severe Convective Systems Monograph Member, NOAA/NWS NEXRAD Technical Advisory Committee Member, USWRP Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Working Member, AMS Radar Committee

PATENTS

Wulfmeyer, V., and M. Randall

Frequency stable pulsed laser, U.S. Patent Pending

ATD Table of Contents

https://web.archive.org/web/20060901170004/http://www.eol.ucar.edu/dir_off/asr01/ASR01community.html[12/27/2016 1:38:31 PM] ATD ASR 2001 - ATD Publications

Publications

Refereed Publications:

Bluestein, Howard B., Bruce A. Albrecht, R. Michael Hardesty, W. David Rust, David Parsons, Roger Wakimoto, Robert M. Rauber, 2001: Meeting summary: Ground–Based Mobile Instrument Workshop Summary, 23–24 February 2000, Boulder, Co. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 681–694.

Cohn, S. A., R. K. Goodrich, C. S. Morse, E. Karplus, S. W. Mueller, L. B. Cornman, and R. A. Weekley, 2001: Radial velocity and wind measurements with NIMA/NWCA: Comparisons with human estimation and aircraft measurements, J. Appl. Meteor., 40, 704- 719.

Friedli, H.R., E. Atlas, *V.R. Stroud, *L. Giovanni, T. Campos, L.F. Radke, 2001: Volatile organic trace gases emitted from North American wildfires. Global Biogeochem. CY 15 (2): 435-452.

Guichard, F., D. Parsons, E. Miller, 2000: Thermodynamic and radiative impact of the correction of sounding humidity bias in the Tropics. J. Climate, 13, 3611-3624.

Haggerty, J.A. and J.A. Curry, 2001: Variability of sea ice emissivity from airborne passive microwave measurements during FIRE-SHEBA. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 15265-15278.

*Lelieveld, J., *P.J. Crutzen, V. Ramanathan, *M.O. Andreae, *C.A.M. Brenninkmeijer, T. Campos, G.R. Cass, R.R. Dickerson, *H. Fischer, *J.A. de Gouw, *A. Hansel, *A. Jefferson, *D. Kley, A.T.J. de Laat, *S. Lal, *M.G. Lawrence, *J.M. Lobert, *O.L. Mayol-Bracero, *A.P. Mitra, T. Novakov, *S.J. Oltmans, K.A. Prather, *T. Reiner, H. Rodhe, H.A. Scheeren, *D. Sikka, *J. Williams, 2001: The Indian Ocean Experiment: Widespread air pollution from South and Southeast Asia. Science, 291 (5506), 1031- 1036.

Parsons, David B., *Melvyn A. Shapiro, Erik Miller, 2000: The mesoscale structure of a nocturnal dryline and of a frontal-dryline merger. Mon. Wea. Rev. 128, 3824-3838.

Rogers, D.C., P.J. DeMott and S.M. Kreidenweis, 2001: Airborne measurements of ice nucleating aerosol particles in the Arctic spring, J. Geophys. Res., 106, D14, 15053-15063.

Rogers, D.C., P.J. DeMott, S.M. Kreidenweis and Y. Chen, 2001: A continuous-flow diffusion chamber for airborne measurements of ice nuclei. J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 18, 725-741.

Russell, R.W. and J.W. Wilson, 2001. Spatial dispersion of aerial plankton over east-central Florida: Aeolian transport and coastal concentrations. Int. J. Remote Sens., 22, 2071-2082.

Wang, J., H. L. Cole, and D. J. Carlson, 2001: Water vapor variability in the Tropical Western Pacific from a 20-year radiosonde data. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 18, No. 5, 752-766.

Wilczak J., S. P. Oncley, and S. A. Stage, 2001: Sonic anemometer tilt correction algorithms. Bound.-Layer Meteor. 99, 127-150.

https://web.archive.org/web/20060901170019/http://www.eol.ucar.edu/dir_off/asr01/ASR01pubs.html[12/27/2016 1:39:49 PM] ATD ASR 2001 - ATD Publications

Wilson, J.W. and R.M. Wakimoto, 2001: The discovery of the downburst - T.T. Fujita contribu­tion. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 49-62.

Wilson, J.W., R.E. Carbone, J.D. Tuttle, and *T. D. Keenan, 2001: Tropical island convection in the absence of significant topography. Part II: Nowcasting storm evolution. Mon. Wea. Rev. 129, 1637-1655.

Yates, D. N., F. Chen, M. A. LeMone, R. Qualls, S. P. Oncley, R. L. Grossman, and E. A. Brandes, 2001: A Cooperative Atmosphere-Surface Exchange Study (CASES) dataset for analyzing and parameterizing the effects of land surface heterogeneity on area-averaged surface heat fluxes. J. Appl. Meteor. 40, 921-937.

Non-Refereed Publictions

Bosart, B. L., W.-C. Lee, and R. M. Wakimoto, 2001: Improved procedure to correct airborne Doppler radar data. Preprints, 30th Int. Conf. Radar Meteor., Munich, Germany, Amer. Met. Soc., 283-285.

Brown, W.O.J., D.B. Parsons, and S. A. Cohn, 2000: Nauru99: RASS Island Heating and other observations. Proc., 5th Int. Symp. Trop. Prof., Adelaide, Australia, 315-317.

Brown, W.O.J., D.B. Parsons, S.A. Cohn, and J.O. Pinto, 2000: NCAR Measurements for the vertical transport and mixing program. Proc., 5th Int. Symp. Trop. Prof., Adelaide, Australia, 369-371.

Brown, William, O.J., David B. Parsons, Stephen A. Cohn, *Masaki Katsumata, and *Kunio Yoneyama, 2001: Profiler and scanning radar observations of a tropical ocean squall. Preprints, 30th Int. Conf. Radar Meteor., Munich, Germany, 405-407.

Cohn, S. A., W.O.J. Brown, and D.B. Parsons, 2000: MAPR: An Advanced UHF Spaced antenna wind profiler. Proc., 5th Int. Symp. Trop. Prof., Adelaide, Australia, 61-63.

Cohn, S. A., L. Cornman, R. Barron, A. Praskovsky, K. Goodrich, C. Morse, and S. Mueller, 2000: Development of a turbulence and wind shear warning system for Juneau, Alaska: Measurement needs and technologies. Proc., 5th Int. Symp. Trop. Prof., Adelaide, Australia, 279-281.

Cohn, S. A., W. O. J. Brown, and D. B. Parsons, 2001: Observations of the boundary layer with MAPR and supporting instruments during VTMX. Proc., 11thSymp. Meteor. Obs. and Instr., Albuquerque, NM, p. 333.

Cohn, S.A., W.O.J. Brown, *R.D. Borys, and *D.H. Lowenthal, 2001: MAPR measurements of snow size distributions. Preprints, 30th Int. Conf. Radar Meteor., Munich, Germany, 548-550.

Ellis, S.M., J. Vivekanandan, S. Goeke, E.A. Brandes, J.Stith, and J.R. Keeler, 2001: In-situ verification of remote aircraft icing detection using S-band polarization radar measurements. Preprints, 30th Int. Conf. Radar Meteor., Munich, Germany, 168-170.

Harasti, P.R. and R. List, 2001a: Nowcasting hurricane properties by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of Doppler velocity data. Preprints, 30th Int. Conf. Radar Meteor., Munich, Germany, 255-257.

Harasti, P.R. and R. List, 2001b: The Hurricane-customized extension of the VAD (HEVAD) method: Hurricane wind estimation in the lower troposphere. Preprints, 30th Int. Conf. Radar Meteor., Munich, Germany, 463-465.

*Keenan, T., J.Wilson, *P. Joe, C. Collier, *B. Golding, *D. Burgess, R. Carbone, *A. Seed, *P. May, L. Berry, *J. Bally and *C. Pierce, 2001: The World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) Sydney 2000 forecast demonstration project, 2001: Overview. Preprints, 30th Int. Conf. Radar Meteor., Munich, Germany, 474-476.

*Lee, J.-L., W.-C. Lee, and *A. E. MacDonald, 2001: Estimating vertical velocity in a hurricane with single-Doppler radar data. Preprints, 30th Int. Conf. Radar Meteor., Munich, Germany, 145-147.

https://web.archive.org/web/20060901170019/http://www.eol.ucar.edu/dir_off/asr01/ASR01pubs.html[12/27/2016 1:39:49 PM] ATD ASR 2001 - ATD Publications

Lee, W.-C., and J. Wurman, 2001: Diagnosis of 3D wind structure of a tornado using VTD analysis. Preprints, 30th Int. Conf. Radar Meteor., Munich, Germany, 304-306.

Loew, Eric, Mitch Randall, R. Jeffrey Keeler, and Joseph VanAndel, 2001: Design of an S-pol spectral processing data system. Preprints, 30th Int. Conf. Radar Meteor., Munich, Germany, 64-65.

Martin, C.L., W.O.J. Brown, S.A. Cohn, and M. Susedik, 2001: Next generation spaced antenna wind profiler technology. Proc., 11th Symp. Meteor. Obs. and Instr., Albuquerque, NM, p. 199.

*McAdie, C. J., P. R. Harasti, *P. Dodge, W.-C. Lee, *S. Murillo, and *F. D. Marks, 2001: Real-time implementation of tropical cyclone specific radar data processing algorithm. Preprints, 30th Int. Conf. on Radar Meteor., Munich, Germany, 466-468.

Mueller, C.K., T. Saxen, R.Roberts, and J. Wilson, 2000: Evaluation of the NCAR Thunderstorm Auto-Nowcast System. Preprints, 9th Conf. Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteor., Orlando, Florida, J40-J45.

Mueller, S., S.A. Cohn, A. Praskovsky, R. Barron, and L. Cornman, 2001: Observations of weather-related aviation hazards in Juneau, Alaska. Proc., 11th Symp. Meteor. Obs. and Instr., Albuquerque, NM, p. 165.

*Murillo, S. T., W.-C. Lee, *F. D. Marks, and *P. Dodge, 2001: Using a single Doppler radar wind retrieval technique to examine structural changes in Hurricane Danny (1997). Preprints, 30th Int. Conf. Radar Meteor., Munich, Germany, 148-149.

Parsons, D.B., F.Guichard, E.Miller, W.O.J. Brown, S.A. Cohn, and *K.Yoneyama, 2000: A proposed hypothesis for the diurnal cycle of rainfall over the Tropical Pacific and the profiling instrumental needed to validate this concept. Proc. 5th Int. Symp. Trop. Prof., Adelaide, Australia, 181-182.

Pinto, J.O., D.B. Parsons, W.O.J. Brown, and S.A. Cohn, 2000: Vertical mixing in complex terrain under stably stratified conditions. Proc., 5th Int. Symp. Trop. Prof., Adelaide, Australia, 351-353.

Rilling, Robert A., Jean Hurst, Richard A. Oye, and Scott Ellis, 2001: Management of data for the NCAR S-band polarimetric radar. Preprints, 30th Int. Conf. Radar Meteor., Munich, Germany, 61-63.

*Sills, D., J. Wilson, C. Mueller, *N. Fox, *D. Burgess, *P. Joe, *P. Dunda, *R. Webb, 2001: Meteorological aspects of the 3 November 2000 severe storms in Sydney, Australia. Preprints, 30th Int. Conf. Radar Meteor., Munich, Germany, 495-497.

Weckwerth, Tammy M., *Cyrille Flamant, and Volker Vulfmeyer, 2001: Clear-air boundary layer obervations from radar and water vapor DIAL. Preprints, 30th International Conf. on Radar Meteor. Munich, Germany.

Weckwerth, Tammy M., *Cyrille Flamant, and Volker Vulfmeyer, 2000: The need for improved water vapor measurements for understanding thunderstorm initiation. . Proc., 5th Int. Symp. Trop. Prof., Adelaide, Australia, 183-185.

Wulfmeyer, Volker, *Robert K. Newsom, *Christoph J. Senff, and *R. Michael Hardesty, 2000: Investigation of the structure of the tropical marine boundary layer using shipborne Doppler lidar. . Proc., 5th Int. Symp. Trop. Prof., Adelaide, Australia, 127-129.

Wulfmeyer, Volker, David Parsons, Craig Walther, and Tammy Weckwerth, 2000: Design and expected performance of a multi- platform, scanning water vapor remote sensing system. Proc., 5th Int. Symp. Trop. Prof., Adelaide, Australia, 27-29.

ATD Table of Contents

https://web.archive.org/web/20060901170019/http://www.eol.ucar.edu/dir_off/asr01/ASR01pubs.html[12/27/2016 1:39:49 PM] NCAR/ATD - ASR01 - Staff, Visitors & Collaborators

ATD STAFF

Division Director's Office Staff

Dave Carlson Brigitte Baeuerle Harriet Barker Terry Cantrell Geoff Cheeseman Sandra Nilsson Shelley Zucker

Research Aviation Facility Staff

Jeff Stith Gerry Albright Janet Anstett Patricia Beard Robert Beasley Henry Boynton John Cowan Ray Crynkovich John Cusack Kip Eagan Richard Friesen Lowell Genzlinger Julia Haggerty William Irwin Brent Kidd Krista Laursen Mark Lord David McFarland Bruce Morley Larry Murphy George Nicoll James Nolan Robert Olson Cynthia Ragni Edward Ringleman Dave Rogers Ronald Ruth Allen Schanot Michael Spowart Hung Viet Ta Mark Tschudi Chris Webster Kurt Zrubek Norman Zrubek

Research Technology Facility Staff

Dave Parsons Kathryn Beierle Michael Bell William Brown Edward Chamberlain Steve Cohn Hal Cole Celia Darnell Anthony Delany Scott Ellis Jonathan Emmett Don Ferraro Brandon Fichera Charles Frush Gary Granger Paul Harasti Terry Hock Kay Hockensmith Tom Horst Michael Iseli Jeffrey Keeler

https://web.archive.org/web/20060901170011/http://www.eol.ucar.edu/dir_off/asr01/ASR01staff.html[12/27/2016 1:41:22 PM] NCAR/ATD - ASR01 - Staff, Visitors & Collaborators

Dana Knoetgen Kurt Knudson Errol Korn Dean Lauritsen Wen-Chau Lee Timothy Lim Eric Loew Jeff Lukas Jonathan Lutz Gordon Maclean Charles Martin Gregory Meymaris John Militzer Erik Miller Richard Neitzel Ken Norris Steve Oncley James Owens Richard Oye Alan Phinney James Pinto Eleanor Praskovskaya Mary Ann Pykkonen Mitchell Randall Tim Rucker Steve Semmer Dean Smith Michael Strong Michael Susedik Margaret Taylor Melinda Tignor Joseph Vanandel Lou Verstraete Marcel Verstraete Jothiram Vivekanandan Junhong Wang Tammy Weckwerth James Wilson

Research Data Program Staff

Mike Daniels Chris Burghart Gawain O'Connor Jean Hurst Feng Ling Santiago Newbery Robert Rilling Brandon Slaton Susan Stringer Benjamin Vinson Joseph Vinson

Design and Fabrication Services Staff

Jack Fox David Allen Jeff Bobka Clarke Chambellan Jerry Dryer James Ellis Ken Harris Walter Hodshon Edward Mores Steven Palmer Steve Rauenbuehler Jose Rivas Alvin Sapp Karl Schwenz Bart Woodiel

ATD Visitors

Kenji Akaeda; Japanese Meteorological Research Institute; 8-9 March 2001; ISS, MAPR, S-POL, NEXRAD.

Jim Arnold; NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center; 24-25 April 2001; IHOP-2002 Planning Meeting.

Sandra Ausma; University of Guelph, Canada; 10/15/01 - 11/5/01; collaborative research on eddy flux accumulation techniques.

Bob Banta; NOAA/ETL; 24-25 April 2001; IHOP-2002 Planning Meeting.

Dan Birkenheuer; NOAA/FSL; 24-25 April 2001; IHOP-2002 Planning Meeting.

Michael Black; NOAA Hurricane Research Division; 3/13-3/14/01; AVAPS Users Conference.

https://web.archive.org/web/20060901170011/http://www.eol.ucar.edu/dir_off/asr01/ASR01staff.html[12/27/2016 1:41:22 PM] NCAR/ATD - ASR01 - Staff, Visitors & Collaborators

Howie Bluestein; University of Oklahoma; 24-25 April 2001; IHOP-2002 Planning Meeting.

Elic Bou-Zeid; John Hopkins University; 20 August 2001 - 7 September 2001; Graduate Student Research.

Walter Buechler; Meteo Labor, Switzerland; 16-17 November 2000; Discussions re: manufacture of surface and upper-air instrumentations and new ATD developments.

Reinhold Busen; DLR Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany; 3/13-3/14/01; AVAPS Users Conference.

Fred Carr; University of Oklahoma; 24-25 April 2001; IHOP-2002 Planning Meeting.

Russ Chadwick; NOAA/FSL; 24-25 April 2001; IHOP-2002 Planning Meeting.

Amanda Cox; University of Colorado; 1 May 00 - 30 April 02; AIMR

Chen Wang Taichi; National Central University, Taiwan; 24 Jul - 20 Aug 00; Comparison between polarimetric radar data and ground based in-situ data.

Dr. Walter F. Dabberdt; Vaisala, Inc.; 3/13/01; AVAPS Users Conference.

Ken Davis; Pennsylvania state University/ESSC; 24-25 April 2001; IHOP-2002 Planning Meeting.

Preston Davis; Hill AFB, UT; 3/13-3/14-01; AVAPS Users Conference.

Eric Debenham; University of Wyoming; 21 May - 31 Aug 2001; Summer Engineering Intern Student; Working with Ned Chamberlain/Terry Hock - GLASS/TAOS/Dropsonde.

Stephen Devereau; U.K. Met Office, United Kingdom; 3/13-3/14/01; AVAPS Users Conference.

Dick Doviak; National Severe Storms Laboratory; 16 Sept 01 - 11 Oct. 01; Advance Remote Sensing Techniques.

Philippe Drobinski; CNRS, France; 24-25 April 2001; IHOP-2002 Planning Meeting.

Matt Eastin; Dept. of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University; 3/13-3/14/01; AVAPS Users Conference.

Gerhard Ehret; DLR, Germany; 24-25 April 2001; IHOP-2002 Planning Meeting.

Frederic Fabry; McGill University, Canada; 24-25 April 2001; IHOP-2002 Planning Meeting.

Cyrille Flamant; CNRS, France; 24-25 April 2001; IHOP-2002 Planning Meeting.

Wayne Feltz; University of Wisconsin/CIMSS; 24-25 April 2001; IHOP-2002 Planning Meeting.

James Franklin; NOAA/National Hurricane Center; 3/13-3/14/01; AVAPS Users Conference.

Katja Friedrich; DLR, Germany; 7-20 Jan. 01; Analysis of data from S-Pol and Binet (IMPROVE).

https://web.archive.org/web/20060901170011/http://www.eol.ucar.edu/dir_off/asr01/ASR01staff.html[12/27/2016 1:41:22 PM] NCAR/ATD - ASR01 - Staff, Visitors & Collaborators

Dr. Masato Fukuda; Japanese Meteorological Research Institute (MRI); 8-9 March 2001; ISS, MAPR, S-POL, NEXRAD.

John Gaynor; NOAA/OAR; 24-25 April 2001; IHOP-2002 Planning Meeting.

Bart Geerts; University of Wyoming; 24-25 April 2001; IHOP-2002 Planning Meeting; Ground-based Research Facility

Cecilia Giez; NOAA/FSL; 24-25 April 2001; IHOP-2002 Planning Meeting; Ground-based Research Facility

Sabine Goeke; ETH, Switzerland; 1 Feb. 01 - 13 Feb. 02; Particle ID.

Alan Goldstein; NOAA Aircraft Operations Center; 3/13-3/14/01; AVAPS Users Conference.

Ken Goss; Vaisala, Inc.; 3/13-3/14/01; AVAPS Users Conference.

Bob Grossman; University of Colorado/PAOS; 24-25 April 2001; IHOP-2002 Planning Meeting.

Martin Hagan; DLR, Germany; 7-20 Jan. 01; Analysis of data from S-Pol and Binet (IMPROVE).

Jeff Halverson; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; 3/13-3/14/01; AVAPS Users Conference.

Paul Harasti; University of Toronto, Canada; 1 July 01 - 30 June 02; At Tropical Prediction Center.

Mike Hardesty; NOAA/ETL; 24-25 April 2001; IHOP-2002 Planning Meeting.

Brad Hill; Princeton; 4 June - 24 Aug 2001; Summer Engineering Intern Student; Working with Terry Hock - Dropsonde.

Ilkka Ikonen; Vaisala Oy, Finland; 3/13-3/14/01; AVAPS Users Conference.

Marko Keskinen; Vaisala Oy, Finland; 3/13-3/14/01; AVAPS Users Conference.

David Kingsmill; DRI; 24-25 April 2001; IHOP-2002 Planning Meeting.

Jan Kleissl; The Johns Hopkins University; July 19-26, 2001; Discuss analysis of SGS-2000 data with Tom Horst; Ground-based Research Facility

Kevin Knupp; University of Alabama; 24-25 April 2001; IHOP-2002 Planning Meeting.

Steve Koch; NOAA/FSL; 24-25 April 2001; IHOP-2002 Planning Meeting.

Bob Kuligowski; NOAA/NESDIS; 24-25 April 2001; IHOP-2002 Planning Meeting.

Vijayant Kumar; John Hopkins University; 20 August 2001 - 7 September 2001; Graduate Student Research.

Tapani Laine; Vaisala, Inc.; 3/13-3/14/01; AVAPS Users Conference.

https://web.archive.org/web/20060901170011/http://www.eol.ucar.edu/dir_off/asr01/ASR01staff.html[12/27/2016 1:41:22 PM] NCAR/ATD - ASR01 - Staff, Visitors & Collaborators

Allen Larar; NASA/LARC; 24-25 April 2001; IHOP-2002 Planning Meeting.

Shane Mayor; University of Wisconsin - Madison; 7 November 2000 ; Water Vapor Dial.

Sandy MacDonald; NOAA/FSL; 24-25 April 2001; IHOP-2002 Planning Meeting.

John Mecikalski; University of Wisconsin/CIMSS; 24-25 April 2001; IHOP-2002 Planning Meeting.

Jose Meitin; NOAA/NSSL; 24-25 April 2001; IHOP-2002 Planning Meeting.

Shin Miyazaki; Univ. of Tsukuba, Japan; 1 Sept. - 29 Oct. 01; EBEX data analysis

Yoshihisa Nakamoto; Japanese Meteorological Research Institute (MRI); 8-9 March 2001; ISS, MAPR, S-POL, NEXRAD.

Steve Nelson; NSF; 24-25 April 2001; IHOP-2002 Planning Meeting.

Markus Pahlow; John Hopkins University; 20 August 2001 - 7 September 2001; Graduate Student Research.

Scott Persinger; 53 WRS, Keesler AFB, MS; 3/13-3/14/01; AVAPS Users Conference.

Erik Rasmussen; NSSL; 24-25 April 2001; IHOP-2002 Planning Meeting.

Scott Richardson; University of Oklahoma; 24-25 April 2001; IHOP-2002 Planning Meeting,

Yvette Richardson; University of Oklahoma; 24-25 April 2001; IHOP-2002 Planning Meeting.

Paul Ruppert, President; Meteo Labor, Switzerland; 16-17 November 2000; Discussions re: manufacture of surface and upper-air meteorological instrumentations and new ATD developments.

Michael Scaffidi; 53 WRS, Keesler AFB, MS; 3/13-3/14/01; AVAPS Users Conference.

Christoph Senff; NOAA/ETL; 24-25 April 2001; IHOP-2002 Planning Meeting; Ground-based Research Facility

Ron Shellhorn; Vaisala, Inc.; 3/13-3/14/01; AVAPS Users Conference.

Michael Sleigh; Telford Institute of Environmental Systems, England; 5 October 2001 to 22 October 2001; To work with ATD, RAP, and MMM on Convective Storms.

Jeff Smith; NOAA Aircraft Operations Center; 3/13-3/14/01; AVAPS Users Conference.

Walter Strapp; Meteorological Service Canada, Canada; 3/13-3/14/01; AVAPS Users Conference; Director's Office

Derek Straub; Colorado State University; 07 July 99 - 06 Jan 02; Probe; Research Aviation Facility.

Dr. Kenji Suzuki; Yamaguchi University; 2 November 2000 - 31 October 2001; Extending GPS dropsonde technology with regard to better understanding of heavy rainfall. https://web.archive.org/web/20060901170011/http://www.eol.ucar.edu/dir_off/asr01/ASR01staff.html[12/27/2016 1:41:22 PM] NCAR/ATD - ASR01 - Staff, Visitors & Collaborators

Luke Swartwood; University of South Florida; 9 May - 23 Aug 2001; Summer Engineering Intern Student; Working with Don Ferraro/Jack Fox/Eric Loew - S-Pol/SABL/DFS.

Ed Szoke; NOAA/FSL; 24-25 April 2001; IHOP-2002 Planning Meeting.

Dr. Yoshimasa Takaya; Japanese Meteorological Research Institute; 8-9 March 2001; ISS, MAPR, S-POL, NEXRAD.

Dr. Yoshinobu Tanaka; Japanese Meteorological Research Institute; 8-9 March 2001; ISS, MAPR, S-POL, NEXRAD.

Nigel Tapper; Monash, Australia; FY 01; TAOS.

Mark Tschudi; ; 2 October 2000; Analyisis of MCR Data; Research Aviation Facility.

Roger Wakimoto; UCLA; 24-25 April 2001; IHOP-2002 Planning Meeting.p>

Tamas Weidinger; Eotvos Lorand University, Budapest; 11 Aug. 01 - 18 Sept. 01; ISSF - EBEX data analysis.

Marv Wesely; Argonne National Lab; 24-25 April 2001; IHOP-2002 Planning Meeting.

John W. Wood; 53 WRS, Keesler AFB, MS; 3/13-3/14/01; AVAPS Users Conference.

Josh Wurman; U. Oklahoma; 1 March 2001; Affiliate Scientist; Director's Office

Joshua Wurman; University of Oklahoma; 24-25 April 2001; IHOP-2002 Planning Meeting.

Tian-You Yu; University of Nebraska; 1 Oct. 00 - 30 Sept. 01; MAPR.

Conrad Ziegler; NOAA/NSSL; 24-25 April 2001; IHOP-2002 Planning Meeting; Ground-based Research Facility

ATD Table of Contents

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Division Director’s Message

Maurice L. Blackmon

In last year’s message, I wrote about the need to reduce uncertainties in our understanding of climate change. I would like to continue this discussion and relate it to some of the accomplishments in Climate and Global Dynamics Division (CGD) over the past year or more.

CGD scientists and our collaborators have developed an updated, improved version of the Community Climate System Model, CCSM2. This model has a host of new or improved components. We are currently running a multi-century simulation with this model to understand its mean climate and “natural” climate variability. Preliminary examination suggests that the model will be improved over the original CSM in many ways, but will continue to produce some of the same flaws in CSM. Further work is necessary.

An early experiment with a prototype version of CCSM2 has been an attempt to simulate the climate of the 20th Century. Our first attempt to simulate the climate of the 20th Century using the original CSM was not completely satisfactory. The simulation with the newer model is better. What was needed to produce the better result? There are several factors that had to be included in the simulation. The first was the growth of greenhouse gases. The second is the inclusion of sulfate aerosols. The third is solar variability, i.e., changes in the radiation emitted by the sun. The final ingredient was volcanic eruptions over the past 130 years.

Uncertainties are involved in several of these ingredients. The growth of greenhouse gases is well known. The output of solar radiation has only been measured to the necessary accuracy in the past twenty years. Consequently, a reconstruction has been necessary, and this has uncertainty associated with it. Furthermore, the way this effect was included in the new model has some flaws in it, producing further uncertainties. The situation is similar for volcanic eruptions. There are no good records for the effects of volcanoes in the late 19th or early-to-middle 20th Century. Only the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the early 1990’s was well monitored. Consequently, a reconstruction of the earlier eruptions and their

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effects was necessary, and this resulted in further uncertainty.

The inclusion of aerosols is also uncertain, but for different reasons than previously believed. CGD scientists have participated in several field programs over the past few years in which the amount and characteristics of aerosols have been studied. One of the major results has been that, at least in some areas, the aerosols emitted by human activity have a strong absorbing effect on solar radiation. Previously, the most common assumption was that the dominant aerosols were sulfate aerosols, which scatter but do not absorb solar radiation, thus cooling the atmosphere. Absorbing aerosols warm the atmosphere. This effect was not included in the latest simulation of the climate of the 20th Century, thus producing some uncertainty in the results.

The situation is more complicated, however, in that the geographical distribution of the absorbing aerosols is unknown, as is its seasonal variability. Further field work and observational work is necessary in order to have a better understanding of human-produced climate change.

This leads me back to the subject of reducing uncertainty and what to do about it. Representatives of the federal agencies participating in the U. S. Global Change Research Program have been considering how to make the program more effective and responsive to the national needs. I believe that specific goals must be identified, and programs developed to meet these goals. A particularly valuable goal would be to reduce the uncertainty in our estimates of human-induced climate change. This will require a combination of observational programs related to the needs for developing improved models. Some of this is already being done. Better answers for national and international policy makers require that this coordination be done even more effectively.

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Significant Accomplishments

Climate Modeling System (CMS)

Jeffrey Kiehl (CMS), James Hack (CMS), in collaboration with V. Ramanathan (University of California, San Diego/Scripps Institution of Oceanography) conducted simulations to explore the effects of absorbing aerosols on the climate in the Indian Ocean region using both prescribed sea surface temperatures and a slab ocean mixed layer version of the CCM3. Their results indicate that the presence of the absorbing aerosol lead to a cooling of the land and ocean surface, not a warming as suggested by recent investigations. The hydrologic cycle is also changed significantly, where deep convection located over the northern Indian Ocean shifts further northward when absorbing aerosols are included in the simulations. Perturbations to the ocean surface energy flux are quite large in both the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, where thy are comparable to the magnitude of the implied ocean heat flux in these regions. Extensions of this work to a fully coupled model, in collaboration with Warren Washington (CCR) show similar results, suggesting that the surface response is highly robust.

Members of the Climate Modeling Section have actively participated in the definition and development of the new CCSM Community Atmosphere Model through their active participation in the CCSM Atmospheric Model Working Group (AMWG). water. The new atmospheric configuration includes major improvements to the formulation of the previous global model, CCM3, and produces a number of significant simulation improvements.

A 20 year control simulation has been performed with the Whole Atmosphere CCM (WACCM-01), which extends CCM3 to a new upper boundary at 140 km. The dynamical fields were used to drive an extended version of the MOZART-3 offline chemical transport model to simulate ozone and other constituents. The simulated zonal winds and temperatures reproduce the observed structure of the troposphere, stratosphere and lower mesosphere quite well. The simulated ozone also, reproduces the observed ozone reasonably well, although closer analysis would reveal significant discrepancies, as with the dynamics.

Climate Change Research Section (CCR)

Understanding the sensitivity of the North Atlantic overturning circulation to freshwater forcing changes, whether due to precipitation changes or ice melt, is important for future climate prediction. Esther Brady (CCR), Bette Otto-Bliesner

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(CCR), and Donnie Barber (Bryn Mawr University) have conducted a series of PaleoCSM simulations for a century-long cold event recorded at ~8200 years ago in ice and sediment cores and tree rings from locations around the North Atlantic. The model predicts significant cooling, especially over Greenland, associated with reduced overturning strength and enhanced sea ice growth

This figure (297K) shows annual average surface temperature for the control simulation and changes in surface temperature for 3 experiments with freshwater discharges of different strengths and durations.

The Parallel Climate Model (PCM) Group have carried out ensemble simulations of the 20th and 21st century climates using the PCM (version 1) forced by observation- based 20th century greenhouse gases and sulfates and projected future greenhouse gases and sulfates. Aiguo Dai (CCR), Gerald Meehl (CCR), Warren Washington (CCR, Thomas Wigley (CAS), and Julie Arblaster (CCR) analyzed these ensemble simulations. The results show that while the warming since the late 1970s was simulated well by the PCM, the observed warming during the early part of the century (1920s-1940s) was not evident in any of the ten ensemble runs, contrary to that seen in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model simulations. The simulations show a global warming of ~1.9°C over the 21st century (continuing the trend observed since the late 1970s), accompanied by a ~3% increase in global precipitation. Stabilizing atmospheric CO2 level at 550 ppmv reduces the warming only moderately (by ~0.4°C) by 2100. The patterns of seasonal-mean temperature and precipitation change in the two cases are highly correlated (~0.99 for temperature and ~0.93 for precipitation). Over the midlatitude North Atlantic Ocean, the model produces a moderate surface cooling (1-2°C, mostly in winter) over the 21st century. This cooling is accompanied by changes in atmospheric lapse rates over the region (i.e. larger warming in the free troposphere than at the surface), which stabilizes the surface ocean. The resultant reduction in local oceanic convection contributes to a 20% slowdown in the thermohaline circulation.

This figure (15K) shows globally-averaged annual-mean surface air temperature change from 1870 to 2099 simulated by the PCM1 under the historical greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol forcing (red solid curves) and a business-as-usual (BAU) and a CO2 stabilization (STA) future scenario. The smoothed thin curves are (5-member) ensemble ranges whereas the thick curves are ensemble averages.

This figure (24K) shows ensemble-averaged precipitation changes (%) from 1961-90 to 2070-99 under BAU (left) and STA (right) scenarios for December-February (DJF) (upper) and June-August (JJA ) (lower).

Community Climate System Model (CCSM)

- Development of the next generation coupled model, CCSM2

The CCSM2 is a new state-of-the-art fully coupled climate system model. This version of the CCSM includes a higher resolution ocean model of approximately 1 degree horizontal resolution, a new sea ice model and land model. The atmosphere model has significant improvements in clouds and radiation. The model simulation of sea ice, ocean salinity, ocean circulation is significantly improved over CSM1. The model will be used for climate change simulations for past, present and future climates. - Development of a comprehensive diagnostics tool for atmospheric model

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evaluation

- Development of a comprehensive diagnostics tool for atmospheric model evaluation.

In the process of developing the latest version of the atmospheric component for CCSM2, a comprehensive suite of diagnostic tools have been developed for model evaluation. This web based tool compares model simulations with either observations or other model simulations. The suite includes detailed evaluation of the seasonal climate of the model and information on climate variability. Along with the tools developed here at NCAR, scientists at Lawrence Livermore Laboratory's Program on Climate Model and Diagnostics developed a complementary suite of diagnostics for evaluating the CCSM atmospheric component.

- Successful simulation of the climate of the 20th century with both natural and anthropogenic forcing factors

The accompanying figure shows results from simulations of the climate of the 20th century using the pale-CSM1. The model simulations include forcing due to changes in greenhouse gases, tropospheric and stratospheric ozone due to anthropogenic activity. They also include the direct forcing effects due to sulfate aerosols. The natural forcing due to both changes in solar luminosity and volcanically produced stratospheric aerosols are also included. When all forcings are used in the model, the model is able to realistically reproduce the anomaly in globally averaged surface temperature. Note that the only way to capture the increase in temperature in the later part of the 20th century is by including greenhouse gases such as CO2.

This figure shows Simulation of the anomaly in global mean surface air temperature from the CSM1. The estimated anomaly in observed temperature is shown in gray shading. The control simulated anomaly in temperature for fixed forcing at 1870 is shown in green. A simulation that only includes the effects of volcanic eruptions is shown in blue. A simulation that includes forcing due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases, ozone, sulfate aerosols, and natural solar and volcanic forcing is shown in red.

Oceanography Section (OS)

This figure shows completion of the development, testing and documentation of the ocean and sea-ice components of the CCSM , version 2. This includes a new, equilibrium solution for the 3 degree version of the ocean component , and simulations for both the 1 and 3 degree versions of the sea-ice component , all forced by observations. These solutions can be used as initial conditions for fully coupled integrations of the CCSM-2

Climate Analysis Section (CAS)

1. The data processing tool based on the NCL software has now matured to a point where it is very useful and many courses have been taught to help users. These developments have been carried forward by Dennis Shea and Sylvia Murphy who have also taught several courses at University departments to students and faculty.

2. New estimates of poleward heat transports by the atmosphere, adjusted for errors over land, have been combined with satellite data to provide the best available https://web.archive.org/web/20020330210119/http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/asr01/Significant.html[12/27/2016 1:49:11 PM] CGD ASR 2001

estimates of poleward heat transports in the ocean by Kevin Trenberth and Julie Caron. These are now reconciled with independent estimates directly from oceanographic measurements and also are reasonably consistent with estimates from the best coupled climate models.

3. For the first time, low frequency variations and trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation have been linked to increases in sea surface temperatures throughout the tropics, and especially in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, by Jim Hurrell and Marty Hoerling (NOAA).

Ecosystem Dynamics and the Atmosphere Section (EDAS)

Dave Schimel participated in two major evaluations of terrestrial carbon sinks. In an analysis led by Steve Pacala of Princeton University, EDAS scientists helped estimate of components of the U.S. terrestrial sink (in agriculture and as a consequence of fire suppression) for comparison to continental estimates from atmospheric concentration data developed by David Baker (now an ASP post-doc). Schimel led a global counterpart study, in which global atmospheric estimates were compared to process model results, satellite estimates and inventory data. Atmospheric estimates that divide the northern hemisphere ecosystem sink between North America (30%) and Eurasia (70%) appear to be consistent with a wide variety of direct estimates of ecosystem activity.

Global Dynamics Section (GDS)

1. Branstator and collaborators study circumglobal teleconnection pattern and show connection with NAO.

This figure: Top panel: Climatological 300mb DJF zonal wind component from CCM3 AMIP ensemble. 5m/s contour interval. Middle panel: One point correlation plot for mean DJF 300mb stream function departures from AMIP ensemble averages (i.e., internal variability) with central point at (60E,24N). .1 contour interval. This shows how low-frequency disturbances are trapped in the jetstream waveguide. Bottom left: Correlation of mean DJF 300mb stream function CCM3 AMIP internal anomalies with an Atlantic index of the internal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation. .1 contour interval. Bottom right: Same as left panel except for mean D,J,F departures from centered 90 day averages from nature. These show that the NAO pattern projects onto a global wave-trapped disturbance. .1 contour interval.

2. Saravanan and collaborators examine seasonal predictability of tropical Atlantic. Discover there is more than El Niño responsible for skill

Geophysical Statistics Project (GSP)

Stochastic Multiresolution Models for Turbulence

Brandon Whitcher (GSP), in collaboration with Jeff Weiss (visitor, University of Colorado at Boulder), and Doug Nychka (GSP). Has developed a statistical multiresolution model that identifies individual vortices from the numerical simulation of 2-d turbulent flow. This pattern recognition tool makes it possible to assemble population statistics on vortices and quantify turbulence in terms of the coherent structures that are produced.

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This figure [coherent.gif, background.gif] shows the result of the multivariate multiple linear regression (top) and residual (bottom) fields from a realization of two- dimensional turbulence. The crosses denote where the algorithm determined there was a coherent structure (a vortex) in the vorticity field.

This is a collaborative effort among Hee-Seok Oh (GSP), Tim Brown (HAO), Paul Charbonneau (HAO) and John Rice (University of California-Berkeley). This project is has been able to estimate the period and the light curve (or periodic function) of a variable stars with the goal of classifying the stars according to different types. The statistical method used includes a robust version of cross validation and is a significant improvement over existing techniques.

This figure [star1.jpg] shows the period and light curve estimated by robust GCV method. The raw time series of brightness of an eclipsing binary star is plotted in top panel. The bottom panel shows the data folded according to a robustly estimated period.

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Publications

Bold face denotes University collaborators * denotes Non NCAR or other collaborators

Refereed

*Alexander, M. A., *J. D. Scott, and C. Deser, 2000: Processes that influence sea surface temperature and ocean mixed layer depth variability in a coupled model. J. Geophys. Res., 105, 16 823-16 842.

*Albritton D., *G. Meira Filho, U. Cubasch, *X. Dai, *Y. Ding, *D. Griggs, B. Hewitson, *J. Houghton, I. Isaksen, *T. Karl, *M. McFarland, *V. Meleshko, *J. Mitchell, *M. Noguer, *B. Nyenzi, *M. Oppenheimer, J. Penner, *S. Pollonais, T. Stocker, and K. Trenberth, 2001: Technical Summary. Climate Change 2001. The Scientific Basis. Contribution of WG 1 to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. J. T. Houghton, et al. (eds). Cambridge University Press. 21-83.

Arblaster, J. M., G. A. Meehl, and A. Moore, 2001: Interdecadal modulation of Australian rainfall. Climate Dyn., in press.

Bailey, B. A., and S. Doney, 2000: Quantifying the effects of noise on biogeochemical models. Computing Science and Statistics, 32, 447-453.

Berliner, L. M., R. A. Levine, and D. J. Shea, 2000: Bayesian Climate Change Assessment. J. Climate, 13, 3805-3820.

Bitz, C. M., M. M., Holland, A. J. Weaver, and M. Eby, 2001: Simulating the ice-thickness distribution in a coupled climate model. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 2441–2463.

Blackmon, M. B., et al., 2001: The Community Climate System Model, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 2357-2376.

Bonan, G. B., 2001: Observational evidence for reduction of daily maximum temperature by croplands in the midwest United States. J. Climate, 14, 2430-2442.

Boville, B. A., J. T. Kiehl, P. J. Rasch, and F. O. Bryan, 2001: Improvements to the NCAR CSM-1 for transient climate simulations. J. Climate, 14, 164-179.

Carter, L. M., E. Shea, M. Hamnett, C. Anderson, G. Dolcemascolo, C. Guard, *M. Taylor, *T. Barnston, *Y.

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He, M. Larsen, *L. Loope, S. Malone, and G. A. Meehl, 2001: Potential consequences of climate variability and change for the U.S.-affiliated islands of the Pacific and Caribbean. U.S. National Assessment, Climate Change and Impacts on the United States: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, Cambridge University Press, 315–349.

Chang, P., L. Ji, and R. Saravanan, 2001: A hybrid coupled model study of tropical Atlantic variability. J. Climate, 14, 361-390.

Collins, W., 2001: Effects of enhanced shortwave absorption on coupled simulations of the tropical climate system. J. Climate, 14, 1147-1165.

Collins, W. D., P. J. Rasch, B. E. Eaton, B. Khattatov, J. -F Lamarque, and C. S. Zender, 2001: Simulating aerosols using a chemical transport model with assimilation of satellite aerosol retrievals: Methodology for INDOEX. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 7313-7336.

*Covey, C., A. Abe-Ouchi, G. J. Boer, G. M. Flato, B. A. Boville, G. A. Meehl, U. Cubasch, E. Roeckner, *H. Gordon, *E. Guilyardi, *L. Terray, *X. Jiang, *R. Miller, *G. Russell, *T. C. Johns, *H. Le Treut, *L. Fairhead, *G. Madec, *A. Noda, *S. B. Power, *E. K. Schneider, *R. J. Stouffer, and J.-S. von Storch, 2000: The seasonal cycle in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models. Climate Dyn., 16, 775-787.

Cubasch, U., G. A. Meehl, G. J. Boer, *R. J. Stouffer, *M. Dix, *A. Noda, *C. A. Senior, S. Raper, and K. S. Yap, 2001: Projections of future climate change. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of the WGI to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. J. T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P. J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C. A. Johnson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 525–582.

*Cummins, D. J., *T. G. Filloon, and D. Nychka, 2001: Confidence intervals for nonparametric curve estimates: toward more uniform pointwise coverage. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 96, 233-246.

Dai, A., T. M. L. Wigley, B. A. Boville, J. T. Kiehl, and L. E. Buja, 2001: Climates of the 20th and 21st centuries simulated by the NCAR Climate System Model. J. Climate, 14, 485-519.

Dai, A., 2001: Global precipitation and thunderstorm frequencies. Part I: Seasonal and interannual variations. J. Climate, 14, 1092-1111.

Dai, A., 2001: Global precipitation and thunderstorm frequencies. Part II: Diurnal variations. J. Climate, 14, 1112-1128.

Dai, A., G. A. Meehl, W. M. Washington, and T. M. L Wigley, 2001: Climate changes in the 21st century over the Asia-Pacific region simulated by the NCAR CSM and PCM. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 18, 639-658.

Dai, A., G.A. Meehl, W. M. Washington, T. M. L Wigley, and J. M. Arblaster, 2001: Ensemble simulation of 21st century climate changes: business as usual vs. CO2 stabilization. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 2377-2388.

Dai, A., T. M. L. Wigley, G. A. Meehl, and W. M. Washington, 2001: Effects of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 on global climate in the next two centuries. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 4511-4514..

Dai, A., J. Wang, R. H. Ware, and T. Van Hove, 2001: Diurnal variation in water vapor over North America and its implications for sampling errors in radiosonde humidity. J. Geophys. Res., in press.

Danabasoglu, G., and J. C. McWilliams, 2000: An upper-ocean model for short-term climate variability. J. Climate, 13, 3380-3411. https://web.archive.org/web/20020615102007/http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/asr01/pubs.html[12/27/2016 1:49:37 PM] ASR 01

Dawson, C. W. and R. L. Wilby: 2001. Hydrological modelling using artificial neural networks. Progress in Physical Geography, 25, 80-108.

Davis, P. M., T. C. Atkinson, and T. M. L. Wigley, 2000: Longitudinal dispersion in natural channels: 2. The roles of shear flow dispersion and dead zones in the River Severn. U.K. Hydrology and Earth Systems Sciences, 4, 355-371.

*Dickson, R. R., T. J. Osborn, J. W. Hurrell, J. Meincke, *J. Blindheim, *B. Adlandsvik, *T. Vinje, *G. Alekseev, and W. Maslowski, 2000: The Arctic Ocean response to the North Atlantic Oscillation. J. Climate, 13, 2671–2696.

Dickey, T., S. Zedler, *X. Yu, S. C. Doney, D. Frye, *H. Jannasch, *D. Manov, *D. Sigurdson, *J. D. McNeil, *L. Dobeck, *T. Gilboy, *C. Bravo, D. A. Siegel, and N. Nelson, 2001: Physical and biogeochemical variability from hours to years at the Bermuda testbed mooring: June 1994-March 1998, Deep-Sea Res. II, 48, 2105-2140.

Doney, S. C., and *D. M. Glover, 2001: Modelling the ocean carbon system. Encyclopedia of Ocean Sciences, Vol. 4, J. Steele, S. A. Thorpe, and K. K. Turekian, Eds., Academic Press, 1929-1935.

Doney, S. C., and M. W. Hecht, 2001: Antarctic bottom water formation and deep water chlorofluorocarbon distributions in a global ocean climate model. J. Phys. Oceanogr., in press.

Doney, S. C., J. A. Kleypas, J. L. Sarmiento, and P. G. Falkowski, 2001: The U.S. JGOFS Synthesis and Modeling Project–An introduction. Deep-Sea Res. II, in press.

Doney, S. C., I. Lima, K. Lindsay, J. K. Moore, S. Dutkiewicz, M. A. M. Friedrichs, and *R. J. Matear, Marine biogeochemical modeling, Oceanography, in press.

Doney, S.C., and D. S. Schimel, 2001: Global Change – the future and the greenhouse effect. Encyclopedia of Life Sciences, A. O'Daly, Ed., Marshall Cavendish Corp, in press. *Dutay, J. -C., *et al., 2001: Evaluation of ocean model ventilation with CFC-11: Comparison of 13 global ocean models. Ocean Modelling, in press

*Easterling, D. R., *T. R. Karl, *K. P. Gallo, D. A. Robinson, K. E. Trenberth, and A. Dai, 2000: Observed climate variability and change of relevance to the biosphere. J. Geophys. Res., 105, 20 101–20 114.

*Easterling, D. R., G. A. Meehl, C. Parmesan, S. Changnon, *T. R. Karl, and L. O. Mearns, 2000: Climate extremes: Observations, modeling and impacts. Science, 289, 2068–2074.

Errico, R. M., M. Ehrendorfer, and K. D. Raeder, 2001: The spectra of singular values in a regional model. Tellus, 53A, 317-332.

Errico, R. M., *D. J. Stensrud, and K. Raeder, 2001: Estimation of the error statistics of precipitation produced by convective parameterization schemes for application to the variational assimilation of precipitation observations. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 127A, in press.

Eugster W., W. R. Rouse, R. A. Pielke, Sr., J. P. McFadden, *D. D. Baldocchi, T. G. F. Kittel, F. S. Chapin, III, G. E. Liston, P. L. Vidale, *E. Vaganov, and S. Chambers, 2000: Land-atmosphere energy exchange in arctic tundra and boreal forest: available data and feedbacks to climate. Global Change Biology, 6 (suppl 1):84-115.

Fasham, M. J. R., *et al., 2001: A new vision of ocean biogeochemistry after a decade of the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS). AMBIO Sp. Iss. 10, 4-31.

*Folland, C. K., *T. R. Karl, and Co-authors, 2001: Observed climate variability and change. Climate Change

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2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of WGI to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. J. T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P. J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C. A .Johnson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 99-181.

Fournier, A., 2001: Atmospheric energetics in the wavelet domain. I: Governing equations and interpretation for idealized flows. J. Atmos. Sci., in press.

Fox, H. R., H. M. Moore, and R. L. Wilby, 2001: The impact of river regulation and climate change on the barred estuary of the Oued Massa, southern Morocco. Regulated Rivers: Research & Management, 17, 235-250.

*Frederiksen, J. S., and G. Branstator, 2001: Seasonal and intraseasonal variability of large-scale barotropic modes. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 50-69.

*Garcon, V.C., *A. Oschlies, S. C. Doney, D. McGillicuddy, and *J. Waniek, 2001: The role of mesoscale variability on plankton dynamics in the North Atlantic, Deep-Sea Res. II, 48, 2199-2226.

*Gelaro, R., *C. A. Reynolds, and R. M. Errico, 2001: Transient and asymptotic perturbations in a simple model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 127A, in press.

Gent, P. R., W. G. Large, and F. O. Bryan, 2001: What sets the mean transport through Drake Passage? J. Geophys. Res., 106, 2693-2712.

Gent, P. R., 2001: Will the North Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation weaken during the 21st century? Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 1023-1026.

Gent, P. R., A. P. Craig, *C. M. Bitz and *J. W. Weatherly, 2001: Parameterization improvements in an eddy- permitting ocean model for climate. J. Climate, in press.

*Glover, D. M., S. C. Doney, A. J. Mariano, *R. H. Evans, and *S. J. McCue, 2001: Mesoscale variability in time- series data: Satellite based estimates for the U.S. JGOFS Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series Study (BATS) site. J. Geophys. Res., in press.

*Griffies, S. M., C. Böning, F. O. Bryan, E. P. Chassignet, *R. Gerdes, H. Hasumi, *A. Hirst, *A. -M. Tregueir, and *D. Webb, 2001: Developments in ocean climate modelling. Ocean Modelling, 2, 123-192.

Hibbard, K. A., S. Archer, D. S. Schimel and D. W. Valentine, 2001: Biogeochemical changes accompanying wody plant encroachment in a subtropical savanna. Eco., 82(7), 1999-2011.

*Hoerling, M. P., J. W. Hurrell, and *T. Xu, 2001: Tropical origins for recent North Atlantic climate change. Science, 292, 90–92.

Holland, M. M., 2001: The role of ice/ocean coupling feedbacks on Arctic sea ice variability. J. Climate, submitted.

Holland, M. M., The influence of ice/ocean coupling feedbacks on Arctic sea ice variability, J. Climate, submitted.

Holland, M. M., C. M. Bitz, and A. J. Weaver, 2001: The influence of sea ice physics on simulations of climate change. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 19,639-19,655.

Holland, M. M., C. M. Bitz, M. Eby, and A. J. Weaver, 2001: The role of ice-ocean interactions in the variability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation. J. Climate, 14, 656-675.

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Hurrell, J. W., and M. Visbeck, 2000: US – CLIVAR Atlantic Implementation Plan. [Available on-line from http://www.usclivar.org.]

Hurrell, J. W., 2001: Climate variability: North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO). Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences, J. Holton, J. Pyle, and J. Curry, Eds., Academic Press, 1904–1911.

Hurrell, J. W., and *R. R. Dickson, 2001: Climate variability over the North Atlantic. Ecological Effects of Climate Variations in the North Atlantic Ocean, N. C. Stenseth, G. Ottersen, J. W. Hurrell, A. Belgrano, and B. Planque, Eds., Oxford University Press, in press.

Hurrell, J. W., *M. P. Hoerling, and *C. K. Folland, 2001: Climatic variability over the North Atlantic. Meteorology at the Millennium, R. Pearce Ed., Academic Press, 143–151.

Hurrell, J. W., *Y. Kushnir, and *M. Visbeck, 2001: The North Atlantic Oscillation. Science, 291, 603-605.

Iglesias-Rodriguez, M., *C. W. Brown, S. C. Doney, J. A. Kleypas, D. Kolber, Z. Kolber, P. K. Hayes, and P. G. Falkowski, 2001: Representing key phytoplankton functional groups in Ocean carbon cycle models: Coccolithophorids. Global Biogeochem. Cycles, submitted.

*Jöckel, P., *R. von Kuhlmann, *M. G. Lawrence, *B. Steil, *C. A. M. Brenninkmeijer, *P. J. Crutzen, P. J. Rasch, and B. Eaton, 2001: On a fundamental problem in implementing flux-form advection schemes for tracer transport in 3-dimensional general circulation and chemistry transport models. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 127, 1035-1052.

Kang, I.-S., *K. Jin, B. Wang, *K.-M. Lau, *J. Shukla, V. Krishnamurti, *S. D. Schubert, D. E. Waliser, *W. F. Stern, *A. Kitoh, G. A. Meehl, *M. Kanamitsu, *V. Y. Galin, *V. Satyan, *C. K. Park, and Q. Liu, 2001: Intercomparison of the climatological variations of Asian summer monsoon precipitation simulated by 10 GCMs. Climate Dyn., in press.

Kasahara, A., and *M. Kanamitsu, 2001: Weather Prediction, Numerical. Encyclopedia of Phys. Sci. and Tech., Third Edition, Academic Press, Vol. 17, 805-836.

Kinnison, D. E., *P. S. Connell, J. M. Rodriguez, D. A. Rotman, D. B. Considine, J. Tannahill, *R. Ramaroson, P. J. Rasch, *A. R. Douglas, *S. L. Baughcum, *L. Coy, D. W. Waugh, *S. R. Kawa, and M. J. Prather, 2001: The global modeling initiative assessment model: Application to high-speed civil transport perturbation. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 1693-1711.

Kittel, T. G. F., *W. L. Steffen, and F. S. Chapin, III, 2000: Global and regional modeling of arctic-boreal vegetation distribution and its sensitivity to altered forcing. Global Change Biology, 6 (suppl 1):1-18.

Kleypas, J. A., R. W. Buddemeier, and *J. -P. Gattuso, 2001: The future of coral reefs in an age of global change. Int. J. Earth Sciences, 90, 416-437.

*Lal, M., G. A. Meehl, and J. M. Arblaster, 2000: Simulation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall and its intraseasonal variability. Regional Environmental Change, 1, 163-179.

Large W. G., G. Danabasoglu, J. C. McWilliams, P. R. Gent and F. O. Bryan, 2001: Equatorial circulation of a global ocean climate model with aniostropic horizontal viscosity. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 31, 518-536.

Large, W. G., and *A. J. Nurser, 2001: Ocean surface water mass transformation. Ocean Circulation and Climate: Observing and Modeling the Global Ocean, G. Siedler, J. Gould, and J. Church, Eds., Academic Press, 317-336.

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*Lewis, J., K. D. Raeder, and R. Errico, 2001: Vapor flux associated with return flow over the Gulf of Mexico: A sensitivity study using adjoint modeling. Tellus, 53A, 74-93.

Lietzke, C. E., C. Deser, and T. H. Vonder Haar, 2001: Evolutionary structure of the eastern Pacific doubled ITCZ based on satellite moisture profile retrievals. J. Climate, 14, 743–751.

Lima, I. D., D. B. Olson, and S. C. Doney, 2001: Biological response to frontal dynamics and mesoscale variability in oligotrophic environments: a numerical modeling study. J. Geophys. Res., in press.

Lima, I. D., D. B. Olson, and S. C. Doney, 2001: Intrinsic dynamics and stability properties of size-structured pelagic ecosystem models. Journal of Plankton Research, in press.

*Liu, P., W. M. Washington, G. A. Meehl, *G. Wu, and *G. L Potter, 2001: Historical and future trends of the Sahara Desert. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2683–2686.

*Lomax, B. H., *D. J. Beerling, G. R. Upchurch and B. L. Otto-Bliesner, 2001: Rapid (10-yr) recovery of terrestrial productivity in a simulation study of the terminal Cretaceous impact event. Earth Planet. Sci. Let., 192, 137-144.

Madden, R. A., and R. H., Jones, 2001: A quantitative estimate of the effect of aliasing in climatological time series. J. Climate, 14, 3987-3993.

Marshall, J., Y. Kushnir, D. Battisti, P. Chang, A. Czaja, J. W. Hurrell, *M. McCartney, R. Saravanan, M. Visbeck, 2001: Atlantic climate variability. Intl. J. of Climatology, in press.

McWilliams, J. C., and G. Danabasoglu, 2001: Eulerian and eddy-induced meridional overturning circulations in the tropics. J. Phys. Oceanogr., in press.

Meehl, G. A., W. M. Washington, J. M. Arblaster, T. W. Bettge, and W. G. Strand Jr., 2000: Anthropogenic forcing and decadal climate variability in sensitivity experiments of 20th and 21st century climate. J. Climate, 13, 3728–3744.

Meehl, G. A., W. D. Collins, B. Boville, J. T. Kiehl, T. M. L Wigley, and J. M. Arblaster, 2000: Response of the NCAR Climate System Model to increased CO2 and the role of physical processes. J. Climate, 13, 1879–1898.

Meehl, G. A., and J. M. Arblaster, 2001: The tropospheric biennial oscillation and Indian monsoon rainfall. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 1731–1734.

Meehl, G. A., and J. M. Arblaster, 2001: The tropospheric biennial oscillation and Asian-Australian monsoon rainfall. J. Climate, in press.

Meehl, G. A., P. Gent, J. M. Arblaster, B. Otto-Bliesner, E. Brady, and A. Craig, 2001: Factors that affect amplitude of El Niño in global coupled climate models. Climate Dyn., 17, 515-526.

Meehl, G. A., R. Lukas, *G. N. Kiladis, M. Wheeler, A. Matthews, and *K. M. Weickmann, 2001: A conceptual framework for time and space scale interactions in the climate system. Climate Dyn., 17, 753-775.

Moore, J. K., and M. R. Abbott, 2000: Phytoplankton chlorophyll concentrations and primary production in the Southern Ocean. J. Geophys. Res., 105: 28709-28722. Moore, J. K., S. C. Doney, J. A. Kleypas, *D. M. Glover, and I. Y. Fung, 2001: An intermediate complexity marine ecosystem model for the global domain. Deep-Sea Research II, in press.

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Moore, J. K., S. C. Doney, J. A. Kleypas, *D. M. Glover, I. Y. Fung, 2001: Iron cycling and nutrient limitation patterns in surface waters of the world ocean. Deep-Sea Research II, in press.

Murphy, S., and *T. R. Keen, 2000: The sensitivity of relocatable local area models to temporal interpolation noise at open boundaries. Journal of Atmospheric Oceanic Technology, 6, 862–878.

Nychka, D., 2000: Challenges in understanding the atmosphere. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 95, 972–975.

Otto-Bliesner, B.L., 2001: The role of mountains, polar ice, and vegetation in determining the tropical climate during the Middle Pennsylvanian: Climate model simulations, in Middle Pennsylvanian Sedimentation and Climate, C.B. Cecil (Ed.), SEPM Special Volume, in press.

Otto-Bliesner, B. L. E. C. Brady and C. Shields, 2001: Late Cretaceous ocean: Coupled simulations with the NCAR CSM., J. Geophys. Res., in press.

*Pierce, D. W., *T. P. Barnett, *N. Schneider, R. Saravanan, *D. Dommenget, and *M. Latif, 2001: The role of ocean dynamics is producing decadal climate variability in the North Pacific. Climate Dyn., in press.

Rasch, P. J., W. D. Collins, and B. E. Eaton, 2001: Understanding the Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX) aerosol distributions with an aerosol assimilation. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 7337-7355.

Rosenbloom, N. A., S. C. Doney, and D. S. Schimel, 2001: Geomorphic evolution of soil texture and organic matter in eroding landscapes, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 15, 365-381.

*Santer, B. D., T. M. L. Wigley, *C. Doutriaux, *J. S. Boyle, *J. E. Hansen, P. D. Jones, G. A. Meehl, *E. Roeckner, *S. Sengupta, and *K. E. Taylor, 2001: Accounting for the effects of volcanoes and ENSO in comparisons of modeled and observed temperature trends. J. Geophys. Res., in press.

Schimel, D. S., et al., 2001: Recent patterns and mechanisms of carbon exchange by terrestrial ecosystems. Nature, accepted for publication.

*Schubert, S. D., *M. J. Suarez, *Y. Chang, and G. Branstator, 2001: The impact of ENSO on extratropical low- frequency noise in seasonal forecasts. J. Climate, 14, 2351-2365.

Small, E. E., L. C. Sloan, and D. Nychka, 2001: Changes in surface air temperature caused by desiccation of the Aral Sea. J. Climate, 14, 284-299.

*Smith, S. J., T. M. L. Wigley, and *J. A., Edmonds, 2000: A new route toward limiting climate change?. Science, 290, 1109-1110.

*Smith, S. J., T. M. L. Wigley, *N. Nakicenovic, and *S. C. B. Raper, 2000: Climate implications of preliminary greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 65, 195-204.

*Smith, S. J., *H. Pitcher, and T. M. L. Wigley, 2001: Global and regional anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions. Global and Planetary Change, 29, 99-119.

*Sontakke, N. A., D. J. Shea, R. A. Madden, and R. W. Katz, 2001: Potential for long-range regional precipitation prediction over India. Mausam, 52, 47–56.

Stocker, T. G., K. C. Clarke, *H. Le Treut, R. S. Lindzen, *V. P. Meleshko, *R. K. Mugara, *T. N. Palmer, R. T.

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Pierrehumbert, *P. J. Sellers, K. E. Trenberth, and J. Willebrand, 2001: Physical climate processes and feedbacks. Climate Change 2001. The Scientific Basis. Contribution of WG 1 to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. J.T. Houghton, et al. Eds., Cambridge University Press, 417- 470.

Trenberth, K. E., 2001: Climate: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Encyclopedia of Ocean Sciences, Academic Press, J. Steele, S. Thorpe, and K. Turekian Eds. 815–827.

Trenberth, K. E., 2001: Climate variability and global warming. Science, 293, 48–49.

Trenberth, K. E., 2001: The Earth system. Encyclopedia of Global Environmental Change, Vol. I. The Earth System: Physical and Chemical Dimensions of Global Environmental Change. T. Munn, Ed., John Wiley & Sons Ltd., 13–30.

Trenberth, K. E., 2001: Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (GOALS). Encyclopedia of Global Environmental Change, Vol. I. The Earth System: Physical and Chemical Dimensions of Global Environmental Change. T. Munn Ed., John Wiley & Sons Ltd., 411–413.

Trenberth, K. E., 2001: The extreme weather events of 1997 and 1998. Climate Change and Water Resources, K. D. Frederick, Ed., Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd., in press.

Trenberth K. E., 2001: How should precipitation change as climate changes: Prospects for increases in extremes. The Climate Report, Maryam Golnaraghi, Ed., Climate Risk Solutions, Inc., 2, 11–13.

Trenberth, K. E., 2001: The IPCC assessment of global warming 2001. The Forum for Environmental Law, Science, Engineering and Finance (FAILSAFE). [Available on-line from http://www.felsef.org/spring01.htm#3.]

Trenberth, K. E., and J. M. Caron, 2000: The Southern Oscillation revisited: Sea level pressures, surface temperatures and precipitation. J. Climate, 13, 4358-4365.

Trenberth, K. E., and J. M. Caron, 2001: Estimates of meridional atmosphere and ocean heat transports. J. Climate, 14, 3433-3443.

Trenberth, K. E., and D. P. Stepaniak, 2001: Indices of El Niño evolution. J. Climate, 14, 1697-1701.

Trenberth K. E., and D. P. Stepaniak, 2001: A pathological problem with NCEP reanalyses in the stratosphere. J. Climate, in press.

Trenberth, K. E., D. P. Stepaniak, and J. M. Caron, 2000: The global monsoon as seen through the divergent atmospheric circulation. J. Climate, 13, 3969–3993.

Trenberth, K. E., D. P. Stepaniak, and J. M. Caron, 2000: The atmospheric energy budget and implications for surface fluxes and ocean heat transports. Climate Dyn., 17, 259-276.

Trenberth, K. E., D. P. Stepaniak, and J. M. Caron, 2001: Interannual variations in the atmospheric heat budget. J. Geophys. Res., in press.

Trenberth, K. E., K. Miller, L. Mearns, and S. Rhodes, 2000: Effects of Changing Climate on Weather and Human Activities. University Science Books. 46 pp.

Trenberth, K. E., D. P. Stepaniak, J. W. Hurrell, and *M. Fiorino, 2000: Quality of reanalyses in the tropics. J. Climate, 14, 1499-1510.

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Trenberth, K. E., J. M. Caron, D. P. Stepaniak, and S. Worley, 2001: The evolution of ENSO and global atmospheric temperatures. J. Geophys. Res., in press.

*Tzeng, R.-Y., and Y.-H. Lee, 2001: The effects of land-surface characteristics on the East Asian summer monsoon. Climate Dyn., 17, 317-326.

van Loon., H., and K. Labitzke, 2000: The influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the stratosphere below 30 km: A review. Space Science Reviews, 94, 259–278.

van Loon, H., and D. Shea, 2000: The global 11-year solar signal in July–August. Geophys. Res. Lett.., 27, 2965–2968.

Wainer, I., P. R. Gent and G. Goni, 2000: The annual cycle of the Brazil-Malvinas confluence region in the NCAR Climate System Model. J. Geophys. Res., 105, 26,176–26,178.

Welch, W. T., P. Smolarkiewicz, R. Rotunno, and B. Boville, 2001: The large scale effects of flow over periodic mesoscale topography. J. Atmos. Sci., in press.

Wilby, R.L. and Wigley, T.M.L., 2001: Future changes to the distribution of daily precipitation totals across North America. Geophys. Res. Lett., in press.

Wigley, T. M. L., 2000: ENSO, volcanoes and record breaking temperatures. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 4101- 4104.

Wigley, T. M. L., and S. C. B. Raper, 2001: Interpretation of high projections for global-mean warming. Science, 293, 451-454.

Wigley, T. M. L., *B. D Santer, and *K. E. Taylor, 2000: Correlation approaches to detection. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 2973–2976.

Wikle, C., R. Milliff, D. Nychka, and L. M. Berliner, 2001: Spatiotemporal hierarchical Bayesian modeling: tropical ocean surface winds. Journal of American Statistical Association, 96, 382-397.

______Non-refereed

Berner, J., and G. Branstator, 2001: Consequences of nonlinearities on the low-frequency behavior of an AGCM. Proc. 13th Conference on Atmospheric and Oceanic Fluid Dynamics, Breckenridge, Colorado, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 231-234.

Caron, J. M., and K. E. Trenberth, 2000: Exploring the heat budget of ENSO. Proc. 25th Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, Palisades, NY, U.S. Department of Commerce, 39–42.

*Dickson, R. R., J. W. Hurrell, *N. L. Bindoff, *A. P. S. Wong, B. Arbic, *B. Owens, *S. Imawaki, and *I. Yashayaev, 2000: The world during WOCE. Ocean Circulation and Climate. G. Siedler and J. Church, Eds., Academic Press, 557-592.

Doney, S. C., K. Lindsay, J. K. Moore, Global ocean carbon cycle modeling. International Joint Global Ocean Flux Study Synthesis, M. Fasham, Ed., Cambridge University Press, submitted

*Hoerling, M. P., J. W. Hurrell, and *A. Kumar, 2000: Origin of low frequency variations of the NAO. AGU

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Chapman Conference on the North Atlantic Oscillation, Orense, Spain, American Geophysical Union, 80.

Hurrell, J. W., 2000: Climate variability: North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation. Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences, J. Holton, J. Pyle, and J. Curry, Eds., Academic Press, in press..

Hurrell, J. W., 2000: Climate: North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation. Encyclopedia of Ocean Sciences, J. Steele, S. Thorpe, and K. Turekian, Eds., Academic Press, in press.

Hurrell, J. W., C. Deser, *C. K. Folland, and *D. P. Rowell, 2001: The relationship between tropical Atlantic rainfall and summer circulation over the North Atlantic. Extended Abstract, U.S. CLIVAR Atlantic Meeting, Boulder, CO, in press.

Hurrell, J. W., M. Visbeck, P. Chang, *E. Cook, *K. Katsaros, J. Marshall, J. Paegle, W. Robinson, M. Serreze, and *D. Stammer, 2001: U.S. CLIVAR efforts in the tropical Atlantic variability. CLIVAR Workshop on Tropical Atlantic Variability, Paris, France, U.S. CLIVAR.

Madden, R. A., and R. J. Jones, 2000: Effects of aliasing in climatological time series. Proc. 25th Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, Palisades, NY, U.S. Department of Commerce, 13–16.

Meehl, G. A., and J. M. Arblaster, 2001: Interdecadal modulation of Australian climate. JSC/CLIVAR Workshop on Decadal Predictability, La Jolla, CA, Climate Variability and Predictability Program, 39–42.

Saravanan, R., A. Giannini, P. Chang, and L. Ji, 2001: Estimating the potential predictability associated with tropical Atlantic SST anomalies. Proceedings of the U. S. CLIVAR Atlantic Meeting, Boulder, Colorado, in press.

*Timlin, M. S., *M. A. Alexander, C. Deser, and *J. D. Scott, 2000: Winter-to-winter recurrence of midlatitude sea surface temperature, salinity, and mixed layer depth anomalies. Proc. 25th Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, Palisades, NY, U.S. Department of Commerce, 129–132.

Trenberth, K. E., 2000: Millennium Perspectives. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 100.

Trenberth K. E., 2000: How should rainfall change as climate changes: Prospects for increases in extremes? The Climate Report Newsletter. Pub: Maryam Golnaraghi, Climate Risk Solutions, Inc. 2, 2-8.

Trenberth K. E., 2001: The evolution of ENSO and global atmospheric temperatures. Proc. Sino-U.S. Workshop on Climate Change and Modeling, Shanghai, China, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 28–29.

Trenberth, K. E., 2001: Stronger evidence for human influences on climate: The 2001 IPCC assessment. Environment, 43, 8–19.

Trenberth, K. E., 2001: Book review of Global Warming: The Science of Climate, Francis Drake, Ed., Climatic Change, 50, 511–513.

Trenberth, K. E., 2001: Outstanding issues in the hydrological cycle in climate change research. Proc. Climate and Ozone Programme Conference, Bergen, Norway, Norwegian Inst. for Air Research, N-95102, 39–42.

Trenberth, K. E., 2001: Global warming is happening. Proc. 2001: An Energy Odyssey, Denver, CO, American Association of Petroleum Geologists, in press.

Trenberth, K. E., and J. M. Caron, 2001: Meridional atmosphere and ocean heat transports. Proc WCRP/SCOR Workshop on Intercomparison and Validation of Ocean-Atmospheric flux fields.

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Trenberth, K. E., and D. P. Stepaniak, 2000: A new index of El Niño related to decadal variability. Exchanges, 6, 25–27.

Trenberth, K. E., and D. P. Stepaniak, 2001: A new index of El Niño related to decadal variability [Available on- line from http://www.decvar.org/newsletter/vol1.1/trenberth.html.]

Trenberth, K. E., J. M. Caron, and D. P. Stepaniak, 2000: The atmospheric energy budget and implications for surface fluxes. Exchanges, 5, 4–6.

Wilby, R. W., and Wigley, T. M. L., 2000. Downscaling general circulation model output: a reappraisal of methods and limitations. Climate Prediction and Agriculture, M. V. K. Sivakumar, Ed., Proceedings of the START/WMO International Workshop, held in Geneva, Switzerland, 27-29 September 1999. International START Secretariat, 39-68.

Visbeck, M., J. W. Hurrell, and Y. Kushnir, 2001: First international conference on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO): Lessons and challenges for CLIVAR. CLIVAR Exchanges, 6, 24–25.

Visbeck, M., J. W. Hurrell, L. Polvani, and *H. M. Cullen, 2001: The North Atlantic Oscillation: Past, present and future. Proc. of the 12th Annual Symposium Frontiers of Science, Irvine, CA, National Academies of Science and Engineering, 12 876-12 877.

Vukicevic, T., M. Steyskal, and M. Hecht, 2001: Properties of Advection Algorithms in the Context of Variational Data Assimilation, Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 1221-1231.

Wallace, J. M., and K. E. Trenberth, 2000: The Earth’s surface temperature in the 20th Century: Coming to grips with satellite and surface-based records of temperature. Inter-American Institute (IAI) for Global Change Research Newsletter, 23, 44–48.

*Wanninkhof, R., S. C. Doney, T. Takahashi, and W. McGillis, 2001: The effect of using time-averaged winds on regional air-sea CO2 fluxes. Gas Transfer at Air-Water Interfaces, M. Donelan, W. Drennan, E. Saltzman, and R. Wanninkhof, Eds., American Geophysical Union.

*Wood, R. A., and F. O. Bryan, 2001: Coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Ocean Circulation and Climate: Observing and Modeling the Global Ocean, G. Siedler, J. Gould, and J. Church, Eds., Academic Press, 79-96.

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Educational Activities

CGD is a strong supporter of educational activities at NCAR, the scholastic arenas and the general community. We have a broad range of participation as shown in the table below.

Staff Appointments to NCAR: Total

Postdoc Fellowships 15 Graduate Research Assistants 4 Undergraduate Students 3 Teaching Appointments 20 Advising on Graduate Research 20 Member of Thesis Committee 21

Other Activities: Seminars, Presentations, and Workshops Technical 216 Non-Technical 25

The Geophysical Statistics Project continues. This project encourages the application of statistical analysis and the development of new statistical methods in the geophysical sciences. The overriding programmatic strategy is to bring in young postdoctoral fellows to collaborate with resident NCAR geophysical scientists. Also, the statistics visitors supported by this project provide statistics guidance to the fellows. This structure allows for growth in the careers of the young statistics postdoctoral fellows as well as providing additional research tools to the geophysical sciences. For more information, please see http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/stats/asr01/index.html

As part of the CCSM activity CGD provides users the ability to access and format output data in a user-friendly manner. S. Murphy and D. Shea (both of CAS) are responsible for the training and education of CCSM users on available data processing and visualization tools. To facilitate this, they have developed an e-knowledge portal for training and performance support. This portal contains three levels of knowledge content: context sensitive job assistance, structured training, and user community information. The portal can be accessed at: http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/csm/support. Additionally, S. Murphy and D. Shea conduct four-day workshops that instruct CCSM students in basic netCDF theory, the NCL language, the use of NCL user interfaces for data visualization, and the functionality available in several types of operators. In FY01, five workshops were held for CCMS users from around the country; four at NCAR and one at UCLA. Training manuals have been created mirroring the topics covered by the workshop. These, as well as the workshop presentations, are available for download from the e-knowledge portal. Each year CGD holds a CCSM Workshop which brings together CCSM users throughout the community. At the workshop, participants present findings based on either model output from simulations or model development.

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Community Service Editorships

Gordon Bonan, Editor, Journal of Climate, 1998; Editorial Advisory Board, Global Change Biology, 1994

Clara Deser, Associate Editor, Journal of Climate, 1996

Scott C. Doney, Associate Editor, Reviews of Geophysics, 1997

James Hack, Editor, Journal of Climate, 1998

James C. McWilliams, Editorial board of the Journal of Turbulence; Editorial board of Physics of Fluids, 2000

Peter R. Gent, Associate Editor, Journal of Physical Oceanography, 1992

William G. Large, Associate Editor; Journal of Geophysical Research, 2000

Doug Nychka, Editor, Statistical Science, 1999; Associate Editor, Statistica Sinica, 1999

Bette Otto-Bliesner, Associate Editor, Paleoclimates, 1992

Philip Rasch, Editorial Panel Member, Tellus, 1992

David Schimel, Consulting Editor, Biogeochemistry, Global Change Biology, Editor- in-Chief Elect, Ecological Applications

Scientific, Policy, or Education Committees and Advisory/Panels/Boards

Maurice L. Blackmon, Member, Climate Research Committee, National Research Council, 1997; Chair, NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM) Scientific Steering Committee, 1996; Science Team Member, NASA's Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES); Co-Chair, Scientific Working Group, Atlantic Climate Change Project, 1993; Member, American Meteorology Society Committee on Climate Variations, 1991; Member, International Commission on Dynamical Meteorology; Member, IAMAP, Working Group D, Medium and Large-Scale Dynamics; Member, Task Force Diversity Group; Member, Human Resources Advisory Committee (HRAC).

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Gordon Bonan, Co-Chair, Land Model Working Group for the NCAR Climate System Model, 1996

Byron Boville, Co-Chair of the Climate System Model (CSM) Project at NCAR, 1993; Member, IAMAS Commission on the Meteorology of the Upper Atmosphere, 1991; Member, IAMAS Commission on the Meteorology of the Upper Atmosphere (ICMUA) Working Group on Modeling of the Middle Atmosphere, 1988; Member, CSM Scientific Steering Committee, 1996; Member, US CLIVAR Scientific Steering Committee, 2000

Grant Branstator, Member, Scientific Advisory Committee for the Center for Atmosphere-Land-Ocean Studies, 1999

Frank Bryan, Member, World Climate Research Program Working Group on Ocean Model Development; Coordinator, World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Pilot Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (POMIP)

William Collins, AMS Committee on Radiation, 1999; United Nations panel on the Asian Brown Cloud, 2001; Co-chair, CCSM Atmospheric Model Working Group, 2002; Panelist, NASA Lidar Algorithms peer review, 2001; NASA Triana satellite science team, 2000; NSF ACE-Asia science team, 2001; NASA FIRST science team, 2001

Clara Deser, Program Committee Member, American Geophysical Union, Chapman Conference on the North Atlantic Oscillation, 2000; Member, Climate Observing System Council, 2000-2001, NOAA-OAR; Member, UCAR Steering Committee of the NOAA Postdoctoral Program in Climate and Global Change, 2001-2003.

Scott C. Doney, Member, U.S. JGOFS Steering Committee, 1993; Member, U.S. WOCE Steering Committee, 1997; Coordinator, U.S. JGOFS Synthesis and Modeling Project, 1997; Co-chair, CCSM Biogeochemistry Working Group, 1998; Member, NOAA OGP Global Carbon Cycle Program Advisory Panel, 1999; Member, NOAA Carbon Observations Planning Group, 1999; Member, Ocean Carbon Transformation, Exchange, and Transport Planning Group, 1999

Peter R. Gent, Member, Scientific Steering Committee for the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) Project; Co-Chair, CCSM Ocean Model Working Group; Member, Working Group on Modeling and Prediction for the International Research Institute; Member, U.S. CLIVAR Ocean Panel

James Hack, Member, DOE Climate Change Prediction Program (CCPP) Science Team, 1991; Member, DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) Science Team, 1991; Co-Chair, Atmosphere Model Working Group for the Climate Model System Project, 1997; Member, Oak Ridge National Laboratory Computer Science and Mathematics Division Advisory Committee, 1998; Co-Chair Clouds and Climate Program, 1998

James Hurrell, Member, Great Plains Regional Center of the National Institute for Global Environmental Change, 1994; Co-chair, CCSM Climate Variability Working Group, 1997; Member, National Research Council Panel on the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment, 1997; Member, U.S. CLIVAR Scientific Steering Committee, 1998; Co-chair, U.S. CLIVAR Atlantic Implementation Panel, 1999;

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Member, International CLIVAR Atlantic Implementation Panel, 1999; Contributing Author Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Scientific Assessment of Climate Change, WMO/UNEP, Chapters 2 and 7, 2000; Co-convener of "The North Atlantic Oscillaiton," AGU Chapman Conference, Ourense, Spain, 2000; Organizing Committee, CLIVAR Workshop of Tropical Atlantic Variability, Paris, France, 2001

Akira Kasahara, Member, Advisory Committee for Next-generation Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) Observing System Simulation Experiments

Jeffrey Kiehl, Member, DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) Science Team, 1991; Co-Director, NSF Science and Technology Center for Clouds, Chemistry and Climate (C4), 1997; Chairman, General Circulation Model (GCM) Validation Work Group at the Center for Clouds, Chemistry and Climate (C4), 1994; Member, Scientific Steering Committee, NSF Climate System Model Project, 1996; Member, Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX) International Scientific Steering Committee, 1996; Member, National Academy of Science Global Change Research Committee, 1999

Tim Kittel, Member, National Science Foundation Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) Program Climate Committee, 1990; Science Team Member, Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling Analysis Project (VEMAP; an IGBP/GAIM core project). Co-Leader, VEMAP Data and Validation Group and Member, VEMAP Steering Committee, Phase 2: 1996; Member, Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center User Working Group, 1997; Member, Central Great Plains Assessment Steering Committee. U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, 1998; National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Climate System Model (CSM) Biogeochemistry Working Group, 1998; Co-Leader, Ecosystem Scenario Development Team, U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, 1998

William G. Large, Member, CCSM Principal Investigator Group, 1995; Co-Chairman; International Science Steering Group of the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE), 1997; Member, NSF Ocean-Atmosphere-Ice Interaction (OAII) Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic (SHEBA) Advisory Committee, 1997; Member, Science Steering Committee, WOCE/CLIVAR Representative Workshop, Fukuoka, Japan, 2000; Member, Ph.D. Thesis Committee, J. Chanut, Laboratoire des Ecoulements Geophysiques et Industriels, Grenoble, 2000

Roland Madden, Member, Advisory Board for Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 1995; Member, Selection Committee for Fellows of the American Meteorological Society, 2000; Member, Organizing Committee of the 8th International Meeting on Statistical Climatology, 1999

James C. McWilliams, Member, World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) U.S. Steering Committee; Member, MIT Corporation Visiting Committee for the Dept. of Earth, Atmosphere, and Planetary Sciences; Member, JPL Science Advisory Council; Member, San Diego Supercomputer Center User Advisory Committee; Member, California Institute of Technology, Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences Visiting Committee

Gerald Meehl, Member, Climate System Model Investigators Group, 1994; Member,

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Climate Simulation Laboratory (CSL) Allocation Panel, 1995; Visiting Senior Fellow, University of Hawaii Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, 1995; Member, Climate Variability and Predictability Working Group on Coupled Models (CLIVAR WGCM), World Climate Research Programme, 1997; Member, Japan/U.S. Scientific Advisory Committee for the International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii, 1997; Chairman, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), 1996; Coordinating Lead Author, IPCC Third Assessment Report, Chapter 9, Projections of Climate Change, 1998; Member, Steering Committee for Initial Assessment of the Consequences of Climate Variability and Change for the Pacific Islands, 1999; Co-Chair, Community Climate System Modeling Climate Change and Assessment Working Group, 2000; Program Committee, Department of Energy Workshop on Downscaling, 2000; Program Committee for NASA Workshop on Decadal Climate Variability, 2000; Organizing Committee, the International Workshop on the Implementation of CLIVAR Programmes in the Pacific, 2000

Jefferson Keith Moore, Member, NOAA CO2 Advisory Board, 1999

Doug Nychka, Trustee, National Institute of Statistical Sciences, 2000; Program Chair, Computing Section, Joint Statistical Meeting, 2001

Bette Otto-Bliesner, Co-Chair, CCSM Paleoclimate Working Group, 1996; Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP), 1995; Paleoenvironmental Arctic Sciences Steering Committee (PARCS), 1999; AGU Paleoclimatology and Paleooceanography Committee, 1998; CGD Seminar Series Coordinator, 1999- 2000; Consulting Scientist, NCAR 40th Anniversary Exhibit, 2000

Philip Rasch, Member, NSF Science and Technology Center for Clouds, Chemistry and Climate (C4), 1990; Co-Chair, Chemistry Modeling Group at the NSF Science and Technology Center for Clouds, Chemistry and Climate (C4), 1994; Member NCAR Aerosol Panel, 1997; Member Coordinating Committee of the Internation Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC) Project on Stratospheric and Upper Tropospheric Aerosols (SUTA), 1998

David Schimel, International Geosphere-Biosphere Program: Task Force on Global Analysis, Interpretation and Modeling; NASA Earth Observing System Project, Biogeochemistry Panel, chairman; NASA Topographic Science Working Group SCOPE Working Group on Biogenic Trace Gases; U.S. National Academy Committee on Global Change Working groups on Biological Systems and Dynamics, Earth System Models, Nutrient Fluxes, and Dynamics; Member, U.S. National Academy Committee on Global Change Research, Carbon Science Working Group (USGCRP); National Research Council Committee on Atmospheric Chemistry; National Research Council Committee on Global Change Research; Member, Steering Committee Carbon Europe Program; Member, Komission (Search Committee) to replace Lennart Benngston; Member, technical Advisory Committee, Max-Planck-Institute for Chemistry.

Peter Thornton, Invited Member of Oak Ridge National Laboratory Data Active Archive Center (ORNL DAAC) User Working Group.

Kevin Trenberth, Member, ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA) Project Advisory Group, 1993; Member, International CLIVAR Scientific Steering Group, 1995; Member, NOAA Council on Long-term Monitoring, 1998; Member, Joint Scientific Committee of the World Climate Research Programme, 1999; Member Committee on Global

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Change Research, Division of Earth and Life Sciences, 1999; Member, NRC NOAA OAR Climate Observing System Council, 1999; Author, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Scientific Assessment of Climate Change, WMO/UNEP, 2001 (lead author Chapter 7, lead author Technical Summary, lead author Policy Makers Summary); Member NOAA Science Advisory Board Panel on Strategies for Climate Monitoring, 2000; Member NOAA Science Advisory Panel for the Climate Change Data & Detection (CCDD) program. 2001; Member Research Advisory Executive Committee for The Climate Report. Maryam Golnaraghi Editor, 2001; Lead author, with Tom Spence, on "Climate Observing System'' for the Presidential Climate Change Research Initiative, 2001; Member AMS Committee on Atmospheric Research Awards Committee. 2001.

Warren Washington, Member, National Science Board, 1995; Member, Secretary of Energy's Biological and Environmental Research Advisory Committee, 1990; Chair, Secretary of Energy's Health and Environmental Research Subcommittee on Biological and Environment Research Program in the U.S. Global Change Research Program, 1995; Member, Modernization Transition Committee of the National Weather Service, U.S. Department of Commerce, 1993; Past President, American Meteorological Society, 1994; Member, Executive Committee, American Meteorological Society Council, 1995; Chair, Fellows Committee, American Meteorological Society, 1995; Member, Board on Sustainable Development, National Research Council, 1995; Member, Advisory Panel, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, 1995; Member, The National Committee, American Association for the Advancement of Science, Center for Science and Engineering, 1994; Member, National Science Board Programs and Plans Committees: CPP Task Force on the Environment; CPP Task Force on Polar Issues; and Chair, Merit Review Criteria Task Force, 1996; Member, NASA Earth Systems Science and Applications Advisory Committee (ESSAAC), 1998; Member, Board of Trustees of the Bermuda Biological Station for Research, 1998; Member, Executive Committee, National Science Board, 1998; Member, NOAA Science Advisory Board, 1998; Member, American Meteorological Society, History of the Atmospheric Sciences Committee, 1999; Member, Corporation for Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 1999; Member, National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC) Policy Board of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1999; American Meteorological Society Award Committee, 2000; U.S. Department of Energy Advanced Scientific Computing Advisory Committee, 2000

David Williamson, Member of CAS/JSC Working Group for Numerical Experimentation (WGNE), 1991; Member, U.S. Department of Energy Climate Change Prediction Program (CCPP) Science Team, 1991; Member, Atmospheric Modeling Inter-comparison Project Panel, 1996; Member, Program Committee for the 2001 Workshop on Numerical Solutions of Fluid Flow in Spherical Geometry, 1999; Member, External Advisory Review Panel of Center for Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS), Tallahassee, FL., 2001

Professional Society Memberships

Enrica Bellone, American Statistical Association

Maurice L. Blackmon, American Meteorological Society

Byron Boville, American Geophysical Union; American Meteorological Society; Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society

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Esther Brady, American Geophysical Union; The Oceanography Society

Grant Branstator, American Meteorological Society

Frank Bryan, American Meteorological Society; American Geophysical Union; The Oceanography Society

Julie Caron, American Meteorological Society; American Geophysical Union

William Collins, American Geophysical Union; American Meteorological Society; American Physical Society; American Association for the Advancement of Science

Aiguo Dai, American Geophysical Union

Clara Deser, American Meteorological Society; American Geophysical Union

Scott C. Doney, American Meteorological Society; American Geophysical Union; The Oceanography Society

Peter R. Gent, American Geophysical Union; American Meteorological Society

Matthew Hecht, American Geophysical Union; American Meteorological Society

Tim Hoar, American Statistical Association; American Meteorological Society; American Geophysical Union

Arlie Huffman, American Geophysical Union; American Meteorological Society

James Hurrell, American Meteorological Society; American Geophysical Union; Royal Meteorological Society

Akira Kasahara, American Meteorological Society (Fellow); American Geophysical Union; American Association for the Advancement of Science (Fellow); Sigma Xi; Meteorological Society of Japan (Honorary Member)

Jeffrey Kiehl, American Geophysical Union; American Meteorological Society

Timothy Kittel, American Geophysical Union, American Meteorological Society, Ecological Society of America, International Association for Vegetation Science, California Botanical Society

Joan A. Kleypas, American Geophysical Union, Geological Society of America, International Society for Reef Studies.

Samuel Levis, American Geophysical Union

Roland Madden, American Meteorological Society; American Geophysical Union

Gerald Meehl, American Meteorological Society; American Geophysical Union; Pacific Science Association

Chester Newton, American Meteorological Society; American Geophysical Union; American Association for the Advancement of Science

Douglas Nychka, American Statistical Association; Institute for Mathematical https://web.archive.org/web/20030123165023/http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/asr01/communityservice.html[12/27/2016 1:50:36 PM] CGD ASR 2001

Statistics; Royal Statistical Society

Hee-Seok Oh, American Statistical Association; Institute of Mathematical Statistics; Mathematical Association of America

Keith Oleson, American Geophysical Union

Bette Otto-Bliesner, American Association for the Advancement of Science; American Geophysical Union; American Meteorological Society; Geology Society of America; New York Academy of Sciences

Adam Phillips, American Meterological Society

Philip Rasch, American Geophysical Union; American Meteorological Society; American Association for the Advancement of Science

Christine Shields, American Meteorological Society

David Schimel, American Geophysical Union, Ecological Society of America

Dennis Shea, American Meteorological Society

Sarah Streett, American Statistical Association

Kevin Trenberth, American Meteorological Society; American Association for the Advancement of Science; Royal Meteorological Society of New Zealand; American Geophysical Union

Warren Washington, American Association for the Advancement of Science; American Geophysical Union; American Meteorological Society

Brandon Whitcher, American Statistical Association; Institute for Mathematical Statistics

David Williamson, American Meteorological Society

Honors and Awards

Scott C. Doney, American Geophysical Union James B. Macelwane Medal, 2000, American Geophysical Union James B. Macelwane Medal, 2000

James J. Hack, CCSM Distinguished Service Award, 2001.

Tim Hoar, ASA Section on Physical and Engineering Science's (SPES) Outstanding Award

James Hurrell, American Meteorological Society Clarence Leroy Meising Award, 2001 , ASA Section on Physical and Engineering Science's (SPES) Outstanding Award

James Hurrell, American Meteorological Society Clarence Leroy Meising Award, 2001

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Keith Lindsay, Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics Richard C. DiPrima Prize, 2000

Roland Madden, International Meeting on Statistical Climatology Outstanding Contribution to Research on Climate Variability, 2001

Joe Tribbia, University of Michigan's Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences (AOSS) Alumni Society Merit Award University of Michigan's Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences (AOSS) Alumni Society Merit Award

Fellows of AGU and AMS

Akira Kasahara, David Williamson, AMS

Akira Kasahara, AGU

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Visitors

Caspar Ammann; University of Massachusetts; December 11, 2000-June 22, 2002; Climate Change Research Section

Jeffrey Anderson; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory; June 17-29, 2001; Global Dynamics Section

Barbara Bailey; University of Illinois at Champaign-Urbana; May 23, 2001-June 12, 2001; Geophysical Statistics Project

Marcelo Barreiro; Texas A&M; August 15, 2001-February 15, 2002; Global Dynamics Section

Enrica Bellone; University of Washington; October 1, 2000-June 30, 2002; Geophysical Statistics Project

Thomas Bengtsson; University of Missouri; October 1, 2000-June 30, 2002; Geophysical Statistics Project

Mark Berliner; Ohio State University; June 10-21, 2001; Geophysical Statistics Project

Amy Braverman; Jet Propulsion Laboratory, March 11-13, 2001; Geophysical Statistics Project

Lori Bruhwiler; NOAA; May 2, 2001; Ecosystem Dynamics and the Atmosphere Section

Petruta Caragea; University of North Carolina; June 13-17, 2001; Geophysical Statistics Project

Christophe Cassou; CERFACS, Toulouse, France; October 1, 2001- September 30, 2002; Climate Analysis Section

Jerome Chanut; MEOM, Laboratoire des Ecoulements Geophysiques et Industriels, France; April 23, 2001- October 23, 2001; Oceanography Section

Paul Craig; University of Colorado at Denver; May 10, 2001-September 28, 2001; Global Dynamics Section

Roger Dargaville; University of Alaska; July 24, 2000-July 23, 2002; Oceanography Section

Maarten de Koningh; KEMA; April 24, 2001-August 14, 2001; ACACIA

Alain Colin DeVerdiere; Laboratoire de Physique des Oceans, France; June 11-12, 2001; Oceanography Section

Gilles Delaygue; University of Chicago; June 1, 2001-August 31, 2001; Climate Change Research Section

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Leo Donner; Princeton University; August 2-17, 2001; Climate Modeling Section

John Drake; Oak Ridge National Laboratory; June 4-30, 2001; Climate Modeling Section

Jeff Dukes; University of Utah; May 15-17, 2001; Community Climate System Model

Martin Ehrendorfer; University of Vienna; April 28, 2001-May 2, 2001; Global Dynamics Section

Jason Evans; Yale University; April 3-5,2001; Community Climate System Model

Brian Ewald; Indiana University; August 13-24, 2001; Global Dynamics Section

Matthew Fearon; Yale University; April 3-5, 2001; Community Climate System Model

Song Feng; University of Nebraska, May 15-17, 2001; Climate and Global Dynamics Division

Chris Folland; Met Office Hadley Centre; September 24-25, 2001; Climate Analysis Section

Aime Fournier; University of Maryland; July 1, 2001-June 30, 2002; Global Dynamics Section

Baptiste Fournier; Swiss Federal Institute of Technology; Switzerland; October 15, 2001-February 22, 2002; Geophysical Statistics Project

Montserrat Fuentes; North Carolina State University; June 6-13, 2001; Geophysical Statistics Project

Hector Galbraith; Galbraith Environmental Sciences Stratus Consulting; April 16, 2001; Ecosystem Dynamics and the Atmosphere Section

Camilla Geels; Copenhagen, Denmark; November 1, 2000-April 1, 2001; Oceanography Section and Ecosystem Dynamics and the Atmosphere Section

Marc Genton; North Carolina State University; August 19, 2001-September 14, 2001; Geophysical Statistics Project

Andrew Gettelman; University of Washington; October 7, 1999-October 6, 2001; Climate and Global Dynamics Division

Filippo Giorgi; Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics; March 29, 2001 - April 13, 2001; Global Dynamics Section

Amy Grady; Environmental Protection Agency; June 11-15, 2001; Geophysical Statistics Project

Richard Greatbatch; Dalhousie University; May 21-23, 2001; Oceanography Section

Kevin Gurney; Colorado State University; March 7, 2001; Ecosystem Dynamics and the Atmosphere Section

Dale Haidvogel; Rutgers University; June 1-20, 2001; Oceanography Section

Andreas Hense; University Bonn, Germany; July 11-23, 2001; Global Dynamics Section

Neil Holbrook; Macquarie University, Australia; November 3, 2000-December 22, 2000; Climate Change Research Section

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Qi Steve Hu, University of Nebraska; May 15-17, 2001; Climate and Global Dynamics Division

Christiane Jablonowski; University of Michigan; May 3-4, 2001; Climate Modeling Section

Rob Jacob, Argonne National Laboratory; March 19-23, 2001 and May 14-18, 2001; Climate Change Research Section

Steven Jayne; University of Colorado; March 18, 2001-August 11, 2001; Oceanography Section

Craig Johns: University of California; July 19, 1999-December 31, 2001; Geophysical Statistics Project

Richard Jones; University of Colorado; June 1, 2000-December 31, 2001; Geophysical Statistics Project

Masanobu Kato; CRIEPI; April 25-27, 2001; Climate Analysis Section

Sang-Hyun Kim, Harvard University; May 9-12, 2001; Climate Change Research Section

Patrice Klein; French Research Institute for Exploitation of the Sea (IFREMER), Pluouzane, France; March 10- 18, 2001; Oceanography Section

Daryl Kleist; University of Wisconsin; June 11-15, 2001; Global Dynamics Section

John Kutzbach; University of Wisconsin; July 24, 2001-August 3, 2001; Climate Change Research Section

Karin Labitzke; Freie University of Berlin; June 8-26, 2001; Climate Analysis Section

J. Walter Larson, Argonne National Laboratory; March 19-23, 2001 and May 14-18, 2001; Climate Change Research Section

Thomas Lee; Colorado State University; August 30, 2001-June 30, 2002; Geophysical Statistics Project

Ta-Hsin Li; IBM T.J. Watson Research Center; October 18-21 2000; Geophysical Statistics Project

Ivan Lima; Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Miami, Florida; May 10, 1999-December 31, 2001; Oceanography Section

Pin Liu; Beijing, China; October 14, 2000-December 15, 2000; Climate Change Research Section

Zhengyu Liu; University of Wisconsin; October 3, 2001-November 30, 2001; Climate Change Research Section

Robert Lund; University of Georgia; May 3, 2001-June 1, 2001; Geophysical Statistics Project

Bennert Machenhauer; Danish Meteorological Institute, Denmark; April 5-6, 2001; Global Dynamics Section

Natalie Mahowald; University of California, Santa Cruz; June 25, 2001-July 6, 2001 and July 26, 2001- September 6, 2001; Climate Modeling Section

Steve Marron; University of North Carolina; March 12-17, 2001; Geophysical Statistics Project

Koki Maruyama; CRIEPI; March 12-16, 2001 and April 25-27, 2001; Climate Modeling Section

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Rebecca McKeown; Colorado State University; October 3, 2000-October 2, 2002; Ecosystem Dynamics and the Atmosphere Section

Justin McLay; University of Wisconsin; June 11-15, 2001; Global Dynamics Section

James C. McWilliams; UCLA; June 1, 2001-August 31, 2001; Oceanography Section

Jefferson Keith Moore; Oregon State University; July 1, 2001-June 30, 2002; Oceanography Section;

Michael Morgan; University of Wisconsin; June 11-15, 2001; Global Dynamics Section

Steve Mullen; University of Arizona; June 10-22, 2001; Global Dynamics Section

Guy Nason; University of Bristol, United Kingdom; February 3-23, 2001; Geophysical Statistics Project

Antonio Navarra; IMGA-CNR, Bologna, Italy; July 16, 2001-August 3, 2001; Global Dynamics Section

Phillippe Naveau; CNRS LMD, Palaiseau, France; August 1, 2001-November 1, 2001; Geophysical Statistics Project

Cindy Nevison; University of California, San Diego; December 12, 2000-December 11, 2001; Oceanography Section

Shaw Nishinomiya; CRIEPI; March 12-16, 2001; Climate Modeling Section

Hee-Seok Oh; University of Bristol; October 1, 2000-June 30, 2002; Geophysical Statistics Project

Wendall Welch Orlando; Yale University; October 16, 2000-January 15, 2001; Climate Modeling Section and Global Dynamics Section

Judith Perlwitz; NASA/GISS; May 3, 2001-June 2, 2001; Climate Analysis Section

Drew Peterson; Dalhousie University; Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada; June 25, 2001-July 3, 2001; Oceanography Section

Nadia Pinardi; IMGA-CNR, Bologna, Italy; July 16, 2001-August 3, 2001; Global Dynamics Section

Jim Randerson; Cal Tech; April 3-6, 2001; Ecosystem Dynamics and the Atmosphere Section

Marilyn Raphael; University of California, Los Angeles; August 7, 2000-January 5, 2001, February 12-13, 2001, and August 6, 2001-January 3, 2002; Climate Modeling Section

Ben Santer: LLNL; June 11-22, 2001; ACACIA, Climate Analysis Section

Earl Saxon; Conservation Science Division; March 8, 2001; Ecosystem Dynamics and the Atmosphere Section

Tim Seastedt; University of Colorado; June 20, 2001; Ecosystem Dynamics and the Atmosphere Section

Cindy Shellito; Scripps Institution of Oceanography; March 12-16, 2001 and September 11-14, 2001; Climate Modeling Section

Theodore G. Shepherd; University of Toronto; August 24, 2001-August 23, 2002; Climate Modeling Section

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Steven Sherwood; Yale University; February 25-28, 2001; Climate Modeling Section

Joel Smith; Stratus Consulting, Inc.; April 16, 2001; Ecosystem Dynamics and the Atmosphere Section

Linda Smith; University of Texas; May 21, 2001-October 31, 2001; Climate Change Research Section

Richard Smith; University of North Carolina; May 3, 2001-June 20, 2001; Geophysical Statistics Project

Steven J. Smith; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; February 20-23, 2001; Climate Analysis Section

Sarah Streett; Colorado State University; October 1, 2000-June 30, 2002; Geophysical Statistics Project

Britt Stephens; NOAA; April 18, 2001; Ecosystem Dynamics and the Atmosphere Section

David Stephens; Agriculture Western Australia; October 15-19, 2001; Climate Analysis Section

Brian Soden; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University; February 5-7, 2001; Climate Modeling Section

Claudia Tebaldi; Athene Software Inc.; October 25, 2000-April 30, 2001; Geophysical Statistics Project

Roger Temam; Indiana University; August 13-24, 2001; Global Dynamics Section

Mathieu Vrac; CNRS MD, France; September 17-27, 2001; Geophysical Statistics Project

Hans von Storch; Max Planck-Strasse; April 5-11, 2001; Climate Analysis Section

Ilana Wainer; Department Oceanografia Fisica; January 1-March 2, 2001; Oceanography Section

Roxana Wajsowicz; University of Maryland; June 13, 2001; Oceanography Section

Ian Watterson; May 29-June 1, 2001; Climate Analysis Section, ACACIA

John Weatherly; Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, Department of the Army; September 1, 2001-August 31, 2002; Climate Change Research Section

Nanne Weber; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, The Netherlands; April 26-27, 2001; Climate Change Research Section

Brandon Whitcher; EURANDOM, The Netherlands; October 1 2000 - June 30, 2002; Geophysical Statistics Project

Susumu Yoda; CRIEPI; April 25-27, 2001; Climate Modeling Section

Charlie Zender; University of California; July 2, 2001 - September 3, 2001; Climate Modeling Section

https://web.archive.org/web/20030324144002/http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/asr01/visitors.html[12/27/2016 1:51:01 PM] CGD ASR 2001

COLLABORATORS

Mark Abbott; Oregon State University, oceanography

Bruce Albrecht; State University of New York, Albany; stratocumulus cloud parameterizations

Daniel L Albritton; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Aeronomy Laboratory; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Michael Alexander; NOAA, Climate Diagnostics Center; climate variability

John Allen; Oregon State University; coastal ocean modeling

Brian Arbic; Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution; oceanography

Gregg Asner; University of Colorado; ecosystem dynamics

Robert Atlas; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; ocean vector winds

Dominique Bachelet; Oregon State University; ecosystem modeling

David Bader; U.S. Department of Energy; Climate Change Prediction Program

Ferdinand Baer; University of Maryland; spectral element atmosphere model

Barbara Bailey; University of Illinois; statistics in the atmosphere

Nancy Baker; Naval Research Laboratory; data assimilation

Lawrence E. Band; University of Toronto; surface hydrology

Donnie Barber; Bryn Mawr University; paleoclimate

Tim Barnett; Scripps Institution of Oceanography; Accelerated Climate Prediction Initiative (ACPI)

Bernard Barnier; Laboratoire des Ecoulements Geophisiques et Industiels, France; oceanography

Jill Baron; Colorado State University; ecosystem dynamics, hydrology, and climate change

Eric Barron; Pennsylvania State University; paleoclimate modeling

David Beerling; University of Sheffield; paleoclimate and vegetation

https://web.archive.org/web/20030123165124/http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/asr01/Collabs.html[12/27/2016 1:51:25 PM] CGD ASR 2001

John Bergman; NOAA Climate Diagnostics Center; cloud radiation

L. Mark Berliner; Ohio State University; Bayesian models

Pavel Berloff; University of California, Los Angeles; geophysical fluid dynamics

Judith Berner; University of Bonn, Germany; phase space analysis

Gregory Beylkin; University of Colorado, Boulder; adaptive computational fluid mechanics using multiwavelet spectral elements

Nathan Bindoff; Antarctic Climate Research Center; oceanography and climate

Cecilia Bitz; University of Washington; sea-ice thermodynamics and thickness distribution

George Boer; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis; model intercomparison

Philip Boyd; National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), New Zealand; oceanography

Annalisa Bracco; Instituto di Cosmogeofisica del Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Italy; vortex dynamics

Patricia Bradshaw; Massachusetts Institute of Technology/Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Joint Program; physical oceanography

Marcia Branstetter; University of Texas; parallel climate modeling

Chris Bretherton; University of Washington; boundary layer parameterization

Harry Bryden; Southampton Oceanography Centre; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Bob Buddemeier; University of Kansas; environmental controls on coral reefs

Mark Cane; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Antonietta Capotondi; NOAAClimate Diagnostics Center; oceanography

Ben Chandran; University of California, Los Angeles; coherent structures of turbulent flows in astrophysical regimes

Ping Chang; Texas A&M University; tropical Atlantic variability

Yi Chao; Jet Propulsion Laboratory; ocean circulation

F. S. Chapin, III; Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska, Fairbanks; ecosystem dynamics

Tom Charlock; NASA Langley Research Center; calculation of aerosol effects on surface energy budget

Thomas Chase; Colorado State University; land-atmosphere interactions

Francisco Chavez; Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute; coastal ocean modeling

Dudley Chelton; Oregon State University; air-sea interactions

T.-C. Chen; Iowa State University; waveguide wavetrains

https://web.archive.org/web/20030123165124/http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/asr01/Collabs.html[12/27/2016 1:51:25 PM] CGD ASR 2001

Vani Cheruvu; University of Colorado, Boulder; adaptive computational fluid mechanics using multiwavelet spectral elements

Wooyoung Choi; Los Alamos National Laboratory; ocean modeling for climate

Allyn Clarke; Bedford Institute of Oceanography; CLIVAR

Garry Clarke; University of British Columbia; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Tony Clarke; University of Hawaii; Asian Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE-Asia)

Curtis Covey; Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI); model intercomparison

Steven Cowley; University of California, Los Angeles; coherent structures in turbulent flows in astrophysical regimes

Patrick Crowley; U.S. Department of Energy; Climate Change Prediction Program

Thomas Crowley; Texas A&M University; paleoclimate modeling

Paul Crutzen; Max-Planck-Institute; atmospheric chemistry

Ulrich Cubasch; Max-Planck Institut fur Meteorologie; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Judith Curry; University of Colorado; ice/ocean interactions

Xiaosu Dai; Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction & Research; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Chris Daly; Oregon State University; ecosystem dynamics

Richard Davis; Colorado State University; time series

Laurent Debreu; University of California, Los Angeles; geophysical fluid dynamics

Gilles Delaygue; University of Chicago; Paleoclimate

Charlotte Demott; Colorado State University; convection and Madden-Julian Oscillation

Arlindo DeSilva; NASA Data Assimilation Office; Earth System Modeling Framework

Tommy Dickey; University of California, Santa Barbara; upper ocean physics

Robert Dickinson; Georgia Institute of Technology; land surface physics

Chris Ding; Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; climate system model infrastructure

Yihui Ding; National Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

John Drake; Oak Ridge National Laboratory; parallel computing and numerical approximations

Philip Duffy; Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; high-resolution global modeling

Jean-Claude Dutay; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), France; ocean modeling

Martin Ehrendorfer; University of Innsbruck, Austria; data assimilation

https://web.archive.org/web/20030123165124/http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/asr01/Collabs.html[12/27/2016 1:51:25 PM] CGD ASR 2001

Kerry Emanuel; Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

William Emanuel; University of Virginia; Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) and ecosystem dynamics

Jenni Evans; Pennsylvania State University; climate extremes

Paul Falkowski; Rutgers University; ocean biology

Jay Famiglietti; University of Texas; parallel climate modeling

Yanqin Fan; University of Windsor; wavelets and econometrics

Chris Field; Carnegie Institution of Washington; ecosystem dynamics

Luc Fillion; Atmospheric Environment Service, Canada; data assimilation

Michael Fiorino; Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; climate diagnostics

Jon Foley; University of Wisconsin; ecosystem dynamics modeling

Chris Folland; Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and & Research; climate diagnostics

Ian Foster; Argonne National Laboratory; climate system model infrastructure

Susan Fox; U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service; Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) and ecosystem dynamics

Michael Fox-Rabinovitz; University of Maryland; regional climate change studies

Jorgen Frederiksen; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, Australia; seasonalality of interannual variability

Michael H. Freilich; Oregon State University; ocean vector winds

Lee Fu; Jet Propulsion Laboratory; general ocean circulation and climate dynamics

Monserrat Fuentes; North Carolina State University; statistics in the atmosphere

Inez Fung; University of California, Berkeley; global carbon cycle

Robert Gallimore; University of Wisconsin; paleoclimate modeling

Kevin Gallo; National Climatic Data Center; climate analysis

Veronique Garcon; Laboratoire d'Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiale (LEGOS), Toulouse, France; ocean modeling

Jean-Pierre Gattuso; Observatoire Oceanologique; chemistry of marine calcification

Ronald Gelaro; Naval Research Laboratory; data assimilation

Marvin Geller; State University of New York; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Michael Ghil; University of California, Los Angeles; climate dynamics

https://web.archive.org/web/20030123165124/http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/asr01/Collabs.html[12/27/2016 1:51:25 PM] CGD ASR 2001

Peter Gleckler; Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; model intercomparisons

David Glover; Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution; ocean biogeochemistry, ocean remote sensing, and oceanography

Gustavo Goni; NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorlogical Laboratory, Miami; oceanography of the South Atlantic

Wendy Gordon; University of Texas, Austin; surface hydrology

John Gould; International CLIVAR Project Office; CLIVAR

David Griggs; Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction & Research; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Andrei Gritsoun; Russian Academy of Science; fluctuation-dissipation operator

Nicholas Gruber; University of California-Los Angeles; Ocean Carbon Model Intercomparison Project (OCMIP)

Peter Guttorp; University of Washington; hidden Markov models

Dale B. Haidvogel; Rutgers University; ocean modeling and data assimilation, and coastal ocean modeling Robert Hallberg; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory; Earth System Modeling Framework

Alastair Hall; North Carolina State University; spline smoothing for portfolio pricing

Bill Hamner; University of California, Los Angeles; U.S. West Coast ocean modeling

Jennifer Harden; U.S. Geological Survey; soil carbon transport modeling

Isaac Held; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Jay Herman; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Triana satellite

Bruce Hewitson; University of Capetown; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Kathy Hibbard; University of New Hampshire; ecology

Chris Hill; Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Earth System Modeling Framework

Marty Hoerling; Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences; climate diagnostics

John Houghton; Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction & Research; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Robert Howarth; Cornell University; ecology

Carlos Hoyos; National University of Columbia; data

Qi Steven Hu; University of Nebraska; EP-flux

Bach Lien Hua; Laboratoire de Physique des Oceans; geophysical fluid dynamics

Ju-chin Huang; University of New Hampshire; multiple choice models

Matthew Huber; University of California, Santa Cruz; climate dynamics

Barry Huebert; University of Hawaii; ACE Asia

https://web.archive.org/web/20030123165124/http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/asr01/Collabs.html[12/27/2016 1:51:25 PM] CGD ASR 2001

James P. Hughes; University of Washington; hidden Markov models

Elizabeth Hunke; Los Alamos National Laboratory; sea-ice modeling and dynamics

Barrie Hunt; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Australia; climate modeling

Mike Iacono; Atmospheric and Environmental Research; longwave radiative transfer

Shiro Imawaki; Research Institute for Applied Mechanics; oceanography

Mark Iredell; National Centers for Environmental Prediction; Earth System Modeling Framework

Ivar Isaksen; University of Oslo; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Christiane Jablonowski; University of Michigan; dynamical core test cases

Steve Jayne; Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution; oceanography

Anthony Janetos; NASA; Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) and ecosystem dynamic

William Jenkins; Southampton Oceanography Centre, United Kingdom; oceanography

Mark J. Jensen; University of Missouri, Columbia; wavelets, time series, and econometrics

Joanna Joiner; NASA; organization of 2nd Workshop on Assimilation of Satellite Data

P. D. Jones; University of East Anglia, United Kingdom; climate change data and detection

Phil Jones; Los Alamos National Laboratory; parallel climate modeling

Richard Jones; University of Colorado; time series analysis

Keith Julien; University of Colorado, Boulder; oceanic deep convection

Per Kallberg; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting; ERA-40

Tom Karl; National Climatic Data Center; climate change

Milind Kandlikar; Carnegie-Mellon University; climate change detection

Marat Khairoutdinov; Colorado State University; cumulus parameterization

David Kicklighter; The Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution; ecosystem dynamics

George Kiladis; NOAA; scale interaction

Rodney Kinney; University of California, Los Angeles; coherent structures of turbulent flows in astrophysical regimes

Tom Knutson; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory; climate extremes

Zav Kothavala; Yale University; paleoclimate modeling

https://web.archive.org/web/20030123165124/http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/asr01/Collabs.html[12/27/2016 1:51:25 PM] CGD ASR 2001

Arun Kumar; National Centers for Environmental Prediction; climate modeling

John Kutzbach; University of Wisconsin; vegetation dynamics and paleoclimate modeling

Rolf Langland; Naval Research Laboratory; data assimilation

J. Walter Larson; Argonne National Laboratory; Earth System Modeling Framework

Mojib Latif; Max-Planck-Institute; model intercomparison

Jean-Philippe Laval; University of California, Los Angeles; geophysical fluid dynamics

Mark Lawrence; Max-Planck-Institute; Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX)

Sonya Legg; Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution; oceanic deep convection

Harald Lejenäs; University of Stockholm; atmospheric angular momentum

Pascale Lelong; Northwest Research Associates; geophysical fluid dynamics

Hervé Le Treut; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

John Lewis; Desert Research Institute; adjoint modeling

Ta-Hsin Li; University of California, Santa Barbara; time series analysis

Bill Lipscomb; Los Alamos National Laboratory; sea-ice modeling and dynamics

Xianjin Li; Jet Propulsion Laboratory; climate dynamics

S.-J. Lin; NASA Data Assimilation Office; numerical atmospheric modeling

Richard Lindzen; Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Barry Lomax; University of Sheffield; paleoclimate and vegetation

W. Timothy Liu; Jet Propulsion Laboratory; ocean vector winds

Zhengyu Liu; University of Wisconsin; paleoclimate modeling

Johannes Loschnigg; International Pacific Research Center (IPRC), University of Hawaii; Asian-Australian monsoon

Ferial Louanchi; Pennsylvania State University; ocean modeling

John Lu; S-Plus; statistics in the atmosphere

Roger Lukas; University of Hawaii; scale interaction

Amanda Lynch; University of Colorado, Boulder; land surface modeling

JoAnn Lysne; Los Alamos National Laboratory; thermocline variability in the Pacific

Michael MacCracken; U.S. Global Change Research Program; National Assessment of Climate Change

Gudrun Magnusdottir; University of California, Irvine; North Atlantic variability

https://web.archive.org/web/20030123165124/http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/asr01/Collabs.html[12/27/2016 1:51:25 PM] CGD ASR 2001

Jean-Francois Mahfouf; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts; assimilation of precipitation data

Natalie Mahowald; University of California, Santa Barbara; paleoclimate

Robert Malone; Los Alamos National Laboratory; Climate Change Prediction Program

Mathew Maltrud; Los Alamos National Laboratory; ocean modeling for climate, ocean model development, and modeling the circulation of the North Atlantic

Patrick Marchesiello; University of California, Los Angeles; U.S. West Coast ocean modeling

Phil Marcus; University of California, Berkeley; coastal ocean modeling

Adrian Matthews; University of East Anglia; planetary scale waves

Mack McFarland; Dupont Fluoroproducts; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Dennis McGillicuddy; Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution; ocean biogeochemistry

Wade McGillis; Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution; oceanography

David McGuire; University of Alaska, Fairbanks; Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) and ecosystem dynamics

Wendy Meiring; University of California, Santa Barbara; statistics in the atmosphere

Valentin Meleshko; Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Jerry Melillo; Marine Biological Laboratory; Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) and ecosystem dynamics

Gifford Miller; University of Colorado; paleoclimate modeling

Art Miller; Scripps Institution of Oceanography; California Current studies

Ralph Milliff; Colorado Research Associates; oceanography

Martin Miller; European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts; transpose AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project)

Patrick Minnis; NASA Langley Research Center; Triana satellite

John Mitchell; Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction & Research;Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Martin Mlynczak; NASA Langley Research Center; far-infrared spectrometer

John Moisan; NASA; coastal ocean modeling

Jeroen Molemaker; University of California, Los Angeles; geophysical fluid dynamics

Michael Montgomery; Colorado State University; vortex dynamics

Andrew M. Moore; University of Colorado, Boulder; coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics

Yves Morel; EPSHOM-CMO (Etablissement Principal du Service Hydrographique et Océanographique de la https://web.archive.org/web/20030123165124/http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/asr01/Collabs.html[12/27/2016 1:51:25 PM] CGD ASR 2001

Marine, Centre Militaire d'Oceanographie) France; ocean circulation

Richard Moritz; University of Washington; sea-ice modeling and albedos

Richard Mugara; Zambia Department of Meteorology; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Steve Mullen; University of Arizona; data assimilation

Ray Najjar; Pennsylvania State University; ocean biogeochemistry

Tetsuo Nakazawa; Meteorological Research Institute, Japan; air-sea interactions

Norikazu Nakashiki; Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI), Japan; oceanography

Guy Nason; University of Bristol; wavelets

Antonio Navarra; Instituto di Cosmogeofisica del Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Italy; ocean modeling and data assimilation

David Neelin; University of California, Los Angeles; climate dynamics

Ron Neilson; USDA Forest Service; Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP)and ecosystem dynamics

Ramakrishna Nemani; University of Montana; Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) and ecosystem dynamics

Pearn P. Niiler; Scripps Institution of Oceanography; air-sea interaction

A. J. George Nurser; Southampton Oceanography Centre; ocean circulation

Maria Noguer; Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction & Research; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Buruhani S Nyenzi; Drought Monitoring Centre; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Robert Oglesby; Purdue University; paleoclimate modeling and sensitivity experiments with Community Climate Model

George Ohring; NOAA, National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service; organization of 2nd Workshop on Assimilation of Satellite Data

Dennis Ojima; Colorado State University; ecosystem dynamics

Bradley Opdyke; Australian National University; geologic history of marine calcification

Michael Oppenheimer; Environmental Defense Fund; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

James Orr; Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique, France; Ocean Carbon Model Intercomparison Project (OCMIP)

Tim Osborn; Climatic Research Unit; atmospheric science, and climate

Colin Osborne; University of Sheffield; paleoclimate and vegetation

Andreas Oschlies; University of Kiel; ocean modeling

Breck Owens; Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution; oceanography

https://web.archive.org/web/20030123165124/http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/asr01/Collabs.html[12/27/2016 1:51:25 PM] CGD ASR 2001

Jonathan Overpeck; University of Arizona; paleoclimate

Tim Palmer; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Yude Pan; USDA Forest Service; Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) and ecosystem dynamics

Nikolai Panikov; Russian Academy of Sciences; trace gases

William Parton; Colorado State University; Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP)/ecosystem dynamics

Ari Patrinos; U.S. Department of Energy; Climate Change Prediction Program

Bill Pennell; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Accelerated Climate Prediction Initiative (ACPI)

Joyce E. Penner; University of Michigan; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Pierrick Penven; University of California, Los Angeles; coastal ocean modeling

Roger Pielke, Sr.; Colorado State University; regional climate modeling

Raymond Pierrhumbert; University of Chicago; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Nadia Pinardi; Instituto di Cosmogeofisica del Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Italy; ocean modeling and data assimilation

Lou Pitelka; University of Maryland; ecosystem dynamics

R. Alan Plumb; Massachusetts Institute of Technology; stratospheric dynamics

Steve Pollonais; Environmental Management Authority; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Lorenzo Polvani; Columbia University; large-scale atmospheric dynamics

Wilfred Post; Oak Ridge National Laboratory; environmental sciences

Jerry Potter; PCMDI, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; atmospheric dynamics

Thomas Powell; University of California, Berkeley; coastal ocean modeling

Colin Prentice; Max-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry, Germany; ecosystem dynamics

Ronald Prinn; Massachusetts Institute of Technology; atmospheric chemistry

Antonio Provenzale; Instituto di Cosmogeofisica del Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Italy; vortex dynamics

Jian-Hua (Joshua) Qian; International Research Institute/Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University; atmospheric modeling

V. Ramanathan; Scripps Institution of Oceanography; clouds and radiation

Venkatachala Ramaswamy; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

https://web.archive.org/web/20030123165124/http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/asr01/Collabs.html[12/27/2016 1:51:25 PM] CGD ASR 2001

Marilyn Raphael; University of California, Los Angeles; quasi-stationary waves of the Southern Hemisphere

Thomas Reichler; University of California, San Diego; correlating model prediction skill and blocking events

Juan Restrepo; University of Arizona; wind-driven ocean circulation

Gilles Reverdin; Laboratoire d'Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiale, France; oceanography

Carolyn Reynolds; Naval Research Laboratory; data assimilation

James Risby; Carnegie-Mellon University; climate change detection, and (ACACIA) A Consortium for the Application of Climate Impact Assessments

Brian Rizzo; University of Virginia; Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) and ecosystem dynamics

David Robinson; Rutgers University; climate analysis

Ricky Rood; NASA Data Assimilation Office; numerical atmospheric modeling

Thomas Rosmond; Naval Research Laboratory; data assimilation

Doug Rotman; Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; climate system model infrastructure

Andy Royle; U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service; statistics in the atmosphere

Steven Running; University of Montana; ecosystem dynamics

Murry Salby; University of Colorado; satellite data analysis

Benjamin D. Santer; Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; climate change detection

Christoph Schaer; Eidgenossische Technische Hochschule Zurich; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

S. Schubert; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; seasonal-to-interannual climate variability

Piers Sellers; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Frank Selten; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, The Netherlands; extended range forecasting

Alexander Shchepetkin; University of California, Los Angeles; geophysical fluid dynamics, and coastal ocean modeling

Theodore Shepherd; University of Toronto; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Andrew Siegel; University of Colorado, Boulder; vortex dynamics

David Siegel; University of California, Santa Barbara; oceanography

Adrian Simmons; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forcasting; ERA-40

Stephen Sitch; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany; Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) and ecosystem dynamics

Lisa Sloan; University of California, Santa Cruz; paleoclimate modeling

https://web.archive.org/web/20030123165124/http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/asr01/Collabs.html[12/27/2016 1:51:25 PM] CGD ASR 2001

Linda Smith; University of Texas; paleoclimate modeling

L. Micaela Smith; Universityof Colorado; paleoclimate modeling

Richard Smith; Los Alamos National Laboratory; ocean modeling for climate, ocean model development, and modeling the circulation of the North Atlantic

Thomas Smith; University of Virginia; Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) and ecosystem dynamics

Brian Soden; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Tony Song; Jet Propulsion Laboratory; general ocean circulation

Tom Spence; National Science Foundation; climate observations

Jim Spinhirne; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; assimilation of lidar aerosol profiles

Detlef Stammer; Scripps Institution of Oceanography; Accelerated Climate Preditction Initiative (ACPI)

Will Steffen; International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme Secretariat, Sweden; ecosystem dynamics

Jacek Stegman; University of Stockholm; upper atmosphere data

David Stensrud; National Severe Storms Laboratory; data assimilation

Alex Sterin; Russian Research Institute for Hydrometeorological Information; Madden-Julian Oscillation

Bjorn Stevens; University of California, Los Angeles; cloud processes

Thomas Stocker; University of Bern; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Robert Stockwell; Colorado Research Associates/Northwest Research Associates; meteorology

Thomas Stohlgren; Colorado State University; ecosystem dynamics

Keith Stolzenbach; University of California, Los Angeles; U.S. West coast ocean modeling

Ron Stouffer; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory; model intercomparison

Quentin Stout; University of Michigan; Earth System Modeling Framework

Max Suarez; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Earth System Modeling Framework

Martin Sykes; University of Lund, Sweden; ecosystem dynamics

Remi Tailleux; LMD-UPMC (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique - Universite Pierre et Marie Curie) France; transient general ocean circulation

Taro Takahashi; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory; oceanography

Karl Taylor; Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; netCDF standards, and database management

Mark A. Taylor; Los Alamos National Laboratory; spectral-element atmosphere model

Peter Taylor; Southampton Oceanography Centre; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

https://web.archive.org/web/20030123165124/http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/asr01/Collabs.html[12/27/2016 1:51:25 PM] CGD ASR 2001

Jean-Noel Thepaut; Meteo-France; organization of 4th Adjoint Applications Workshop

Hanqin Tian; The Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution; ecosystem dynamics

Craig Tierney; University of Colorado, Boulder; satellite altimetry and gravimetry,and applications of ocean models to problems in geodesy

Michael Timlin; NOAA Climate Diagnostics Center; climate variability

Alex Timmerman; Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Brian Toon; University of Colorado, Boulder; dust modeling

Alan Townsend; University of Colorado; ecosystem dynamics

Daisuke Tsumune; Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI); Japan, oceanography

Jun-ichi Tsutsui; Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI), Japan; tropical meteorology

Gary Upchurch; Southwest Texas State University; paleovegetation and climate

Francisco Valero; Scripps Institution of Oceanography; clouds and climate

Andreas Villwock; World Climate Research Programme; CLIVAR

Martin Visbeck; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory; CLIVAR

Andrew Vogelmann; Scripps Institution of Oceanography; satellite analysis of cloud water

J. von Hardenberg; Instituto di Cosmogeofisica del Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Italy; vortex dynamics

Tomislava Vukicevic; Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University; adjoint methods

John Wahr; University of Colorado, Boulder; satellite altimetry and gravimetry, and applications of ocean models to problems in geodesy

lana Wainer; University of Sao Paulo, Brazil; South Atlantic in the Climate System Model

Robert L. Walko; Colorado State University; land-atmosphere interactions

Rik Wanninkhof; NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory; oceanography

John Weatherly; U.S. Army Corp of Engineers/Cold Regions Research Engineering Laboratory; parallel climate modeling

Robin Webb; NOAA Climate Diagnostics Center; climate model variability

Mike Wehner; PCMDI, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; atmospheric dynamics

Klaus Weickmann; NOAA; scale interaction

Jeffrey Weiss; University of Colorado, Boulder; vortex dynamics

https://web.archive.org/web/20030123165124/http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/asr01/Collabs.html[12/27/2016 1:51:25 PM] CGD ASR 2001

Judd Welton; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; assimilation of lidar aerosol profiles

Carol Wessman; University of Colorado; ecosystem dynamics and remote sensing

Peter Whetton; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, Australia; climate extremes

Steve Wiggins; California Institute of Technology; coherent structures

S. E. Wijfflels; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, Australia; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Christopher K. Wikle; University of Missouri; Bayesian hierarchical modeling; El Niño forecasting, statistics in the atmosphere, and data

Jürgen Willebrand; University of Kiel; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

John P. Wilson; Air Force Research Laboratory; wavelet compression of turbulence

Beth Wingate; Los Alamos National Laboratory; evaluation of transport schemes for ocean models

David Winker; NASA Langley Research Center; assimilation of LITE and PICASSO lidar aerosol profiles

Annie Wong; Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and the Oceans; climate

Ian Woodward; University of Sheffield; Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) and ecosystem dynamics

Wayne Woodward; Southern Methodist University; trend testing

Igor Yashayaev; Bedford Institute for Oceanography; oceanography

Yoshikatsu Yoshida; Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI), Japan; oceanography

Jun-ichi Yano; New York University; climate dynamics

Irad Yavneh; Israel Institute of Technology; multi-grid computer modeling, and geophysical fluid dynamics

Steve Zebiak; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University; model infrastructure

Charles Zender; University of California, Irvine; global models of dust and paleoclimate

Jinlun Zhang; University of Washington; sea-ice dynamics

Minghua Zhang; State University of New York; parameterizations of cumulus convection

Yuxia Zhang; Naval Postgraduate School; Climate Change Prediction Program

Francis Zwiers; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis; climate extremes

https://web.archive.org/web/20030123165124/http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/asr01/Collabs.html[12/27/2016 1:51:25 PM] ESIG Annual Scientific Report 2001

Message from ESIG Director Robert Harriss

Robert Harriss and Sport ESIG's most important accomplishment in FY01 was the recruitment of Dr. Heidi Cullen, Dr. Rebecca Morss, and Mr. Jeremy Hackney as new members of our scientific staff. Their research interests and skills significantly enhance ESIG's research program on the societal impacts of weather and climate. These individuals are interdisciplinary researchers whose training and experience bridge physical and social dimensions of impact assessment research. They will significantly strengthen ESIG collaboration with scientists within and external to UCAR and NCAR.

In FY01, several major research and synthesis projects were also completed and published. First, an international assessment of lessons learned from the 1997-98 El Niño event was published by the United Nations University Press. This study provides a unique systematic evaluation of how 16 developing nations were impacted by and responded to the 1997-98 El Niño. ESIG provided the organizational skills and intellectual leadership that enabled in- country multidisciplinary research teams to conduct a comparative assessment of reactions and responses of national governments and institutions, international organizations, public media, and the general public to the climate consequences of this very strong El Niño event. This remarkable synthesis provides crucial information for developing regional and national disaster preparedness plans for coping with future El Niño events. ESIG scientists also contributed significantly to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and to the US National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. These two assessments are the primary link between science and policy formulation at both national and international scales. Finally, the accomplishments described in this report document another year of active publishing in the scientific literature and community service through leadership in organizing and reporting on multidisciplinary workshops.

The Environmental and Societal Impacts Group (ESIG) will significantly increase its focus and level of effort on evaluating the societal consequences of weather, climate variability, and change for regional and socioeconomic systems in coming years. This ESIG FY01 Annual Scientific Report reflects first steps in the reorganization and rethinking of the ESIG research program. The evolution of a new strategic vision for ESIG in FY02 will be guided by recommendations from the recent NSF Review and by continuing reviews and consultation with external experts in the weather and climate impacts community. The theme for ESIG's strategic thinking process will be "Forging a New Framework for Regional Weather and Climate Impact Assessment."

– Robert Harriss

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[ Director's Message ] [ Table of Contents ] [ Scientific Highlights ] [ Fundamental Research ] [ Enhancing Productivity and Resilience of Natural Resources ] [ Protection of Life and Property ] [ Outreach ] [ Publications ] [ Community Service ] [ Educational Activities ] [ Staff, Visitors and Collaborators ] [ NCAR ASR 2001 Home Page ] [ ESIG Home Page ]

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JAN MAY JUL Close

Scientific Highlights

[ Flood-Related Presidential Disaster Declarations ] [ IPCC Third Assessment Report ] [ Lessons Learned from the 1997-98 El Niño ] [ North American Carbon Program ] [ Uncertainty Analysis for Climate Change and Its Impacts ]

Flood-Related Presidential Disaster Declarations

Federal disaster assistance is one component of US policy for coping with damaging floods. The president ultimately determines whether or not federal relief is provided to states and local communities following a disaster. Yet, guidelines governing the president's discretion are vague, and the total federal cost of disaster assistance is extremely difficult to determine. A study by Mary Downton and Roger Pielke, Jr., compared flood-related declarations from 1965 to 1997 to measures of precipitation and flood damage, finding that presidents have differed significantly in disaster declaration policy. Downton and Pielke compared how seven presidents made use of their discretionary authority in the disaster declaration process. Because there is great year-to-year variation in weather and in damage, they also looked at precipitation and flood damage data collected by the National Weather Service, as well as several measures of a state's "ability to pay" for its response to a disaster. This study was featured in the March 2001 Natural Hazards Observer (view the article here). The authors presented the complete results in the article "Discretion without accountability: Politics, flood damage, and climate," which appeared in the Natural Hazards Review (November 2001).

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IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Third Assessment Report

Kathleen Miller and Stewart Cohen (Environment Canada) are co- Convening Lead Authors of Chapter 15 on "North America," for the IPCC Working Group II, Third Assessment Report, Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. This chapter provides an assessment of potential climate change impacts in the United States and Canada. It addresses vulnerabilities and adaptation options for a broad range of economic sectors and natural resource systems. Among the major findings are that North American agriculture and industry have considerable adaptive capacity to cope with the effects of climate change. However, regional impacts are likely to be uneven and adaptation will require changes in activities and investments in new technology. Natural systems including wetlands, other aquatic ecosystems, marine fisheries and forests have less adaptive capacity and may come under considerable stress from climate change and other anthropogenic pressures.

Water resources are vulnerable to the combined effects of climate change and a growing set of potentially conflicting demands. This figure shows potential water resource impacts from climate change in North America. (Click on the number to access descriptions of these impacts.) Even with major adaptations including institutional changes and new infrastructure, it may not be possible to offset all adverse impacts on water availability, water quality and aquatic resources. Miller has written sections of the chapter, helped to coordinate responses to reviewer comments, and collaborated with the Lead Authors to complete the final revisions on this chapter. The volume was published in FY01 by Cambridge University Press.

In the volume released for Working Group I of the IPCC Third Assessment Report, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Linda Mearns was co-Convening Lead Author of

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Chapter 13, "Climate Scenario Development" with Michael Hulme (U East Anglia). This chapter acts as an important bridge between the climate science of Working Group I and the climate impact science of Working Group II. She was also a Lead Author for Chapter 10, "Regional Climate Analysis," of the Working Group I Report, which assesses regionalization techniques such as statistical downscaling, regional climate modeling, and stretched GCM grid techniques. A paper on the regional results of new OGCM projections was published in Geophysical Research Letters. Mearns was also a contributor to Chapter 9, "Climate Change Projections." In Working Group II, she was a Lead Author of Chapter 3, "The Development and Application of Scenarios in Climate Change Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability Assessment." This is another new chapter for the Third Assessment Report, which discusses and integrates all types of scenarios needed for performing climate change impacts and integrated assessments. It acts as the other half of the bridge between Working Groups I and II.

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Lessons Learned from the 1997-98 El Niño

The climatic phenomenon known as El Niño has been associated with catastrophes such as floods, fires, drought, cyclones, and infectious disease outbreaks in many parts of the world. Until an investment is made to improve forecasting of and preparedness against El Niño and its related events, thousands of human casualties and billions of additional dollars in economic damage will likely occur during each ENSO extreme warm or cold event. The 1997-98 El Niño caused worldwide devastation, with estimated costs ranging upwards of US$32 billion. Michael Glantz began a study in FY98, in collaboration with the UN Environment Programme, the World Meteorological Organization, the United Nations University, and the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, to examine the societal impacts of El Niño in 16 countries. Particular attention was given to how societies reacted to the El Niño-related events, especially the existing government infrastructure, management approaches, information flow, forecasting capabilities, early warning, and disaster preparedness. The study concluded in FY00, and a book, edited by Glantz, was released in September 2001. It identified lessons to be learned from the similarities and differences among the responses to El Niño forecasts and impacts. The book, Once Burned, Twice Shy? Lessons Learned from the 1997-98 El Niño was published by the United Nations University Press, and a CD-ROM also released that contains the full text of the entire 16 country studies. Limited copies of the book and CD-ROM are available from ESIG and the UNU for distribution to policy- and other decision-makers.

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North American Carbon Program

The North American Carbon Program (NACP) represents a major expansion of the effort to address gaps in the scientific knowledge of climate change. A strong scientific consensus exists that human emissions of greenhouse gases have important climatic consequences that will continue to grow in the future. The primary cause of these changes is the increase in atmospheric CO2, which is caused by the burning of fossil fuels, cement production, and changes in land use, e.g., deforestation. Robert Harriss and Steve Wofsy (Harvard U) convened a workshop in Boulder, Colorado, 5-7 September 2001, sponsored by the US Global Change Research Program, to exchange ideas with members of the Carbon Cycle Science Steering Committee and the Carbon Cycle Interagency Working Group on a draft program plan for the NACP. This plan is intended to be a component of the US Interagency Carbon Cycle Science Program, as well as a contribution to the US Climate Change Research Initiative. Participants reviewed and discussed the draft plan in order to design the final Implementation Plan for the NACP. The workshop proceedings are available on line on the ESIG website, and the full document is being prepared for distribution in FY02.

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Uncertainty Analysis for Climate Change and Its Impacts

The importance of characterizing uncertainty in all aspects of climate impact assessment work is becoming more obvious as the science develops (i.e., "the value of knowing how little you know"). The goal of this research is to review tools that have been employed in performing uncertainty https://web.archive.org/web/20030328001926/http://www.esig.ucar.edu/asr01/[12/27/2016 1:53:16 PM] ESIG Annual Scientific Report 2001

analysis for climate change scenarios and impact studies. A paper by Richard Katz on this topic will be published in Climate Research in FY02. The focus is on recent developments in statistics that could enable more full-fledged uncertainty analyses to be performed as part of integrated assessments of climate change and its impacts. One of the main points that comes out of this review is that uncertainty analysis should not be viewed as a minor component, but rather an integral part of the development of any model. This paper evolved from a discussion paper presented at an ECLAT-2 workshop on Representing Uncertainty in Climate Change Scenarios and Impact Studies.

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[ Director's Message ] [ Table of Contents ] [ Scientific Highlights ] [ Fundamental Research ] [ Enhancing Productivity and Resilience of Natural Resources ] [ Protection of Life and Property ] [ Outreach ] [ Publications ] [ Community Service ] [ Educational Activities ] [ Staff, Visitors and Collaborators ] [ NCAR ASR 2001 Home Page ] [ ESIG Home Page ]

https://web.archive.org/web/20030328001926/http://www.esig.ucar.edu/asr01/[12/27/2016 1:53:16 PM] ESIG Annual Scientific Report 2001

Fundamental Research

[ Climate, Ethics, and Equity ] [ Climate Variability in the NCAR Parallel Climate Model ] [ Development of Interactive Vegetation Package for Regional Climate ] [ Effect of Changed Climate Variability on Simulated Crops and Ecosystems ] [ El Niño and Statistics ] [ ENSO Info Audit ] [ Evaluation of Multiple Sources of Uncertainty ] [ Flood Loss Data Reanalysis ] [ Integrated Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Variability on the Alaskan North Slope Coastal Region ] [ Net Fluxes of CO2 in Amazonia Derived from Aircraft Observations ] [ Other Changed Climate and Crop/Ecosystem Projects ] [ Statistics of Extremes ] [ Urban Metabolism ] [ Water Cycle Study Plan ]

Climate, Ethics, and Equity

On 22-23 March 2001, Michael Glantz and Dale Jamieson (Carleton College), with support from NOAA's Office of Global Programs, held an international planning meeting in San Juan, Puerto Rico, to explore the topic of "Climate, Ethics, and Equity." As this is a relatively new area of research, this meeting brought together participants from different universities and different disciplines, including environmental ethics, for the purpose of identifying and prioritizing key ethical and equity issues related to climate variability, climate change, and extreme meteorological events. The issues that were identified include inter- versus intra-generational conflicts, environmental justice, access to climate and climate-related information, discounting the future, the "Polluter Pays" Principle, the Precautionary Principle, among others. (See the website for a more complete list of issues.) The participants also identified potential participants for a large international conference on the topic, which is scheduled to be held in FY02. These activities are expected to generate more research interest in equity and ethical issues related to the climate system and the use of climate information in decision- making.

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Climate Variability in the NCAR Parallel Climate Model (PCM)

Linda Mearns, with Gerald Meehl and Julie Arblaster (CGD) are analyzing changes in high-frequency (daily to interannual) variability in several simulations of the NCAR PCM, e.g., current climate, and future climate. This research project began in FY00. They have applied the domain statistical package developed by Mearns and colleagues to these simulations. They found significant decreases in temperature variability in the winter in Northern Hemisphere midlatitude land areas. Substantial changes in the frequency and intensity of precipitation have also been identified.

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Development of Interactive Vegetation Package for Regional Climate

Elena Tsvetsinskaya, with Linda Mearns and Filippo Giorgi (CGD/Trieste Institute of Physics, Italy), have coupled the CERES- maize model into RegCM2. The growth functions of CERES-maize were incorporated into the biosphere-atmosphere transfer scheme (BATS), which is the surface scheme for the regional climate model, RegCM2. Off-line tests of coupled CERES-BATS indicated that strong responses (of plant height, growth of leaf area index, and surface radiative fluxes) to different temperature and precipitation conditions were found. Coupling of the interactive surface scheme with RegCM2 has been completed. RegCM2, with the coupled surface package, has been run for the domain of the Great Plains of the United States to determine the effect of the growing vegetation on surface fluxes and local climate.

The model was run using European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasting (ECMWF) boundary conditions for 1991, a normal year, and 1988, a dry year. Results indicate that for 1988 large differences occur between the non-interactive run and the interactive run. With the interactive growth and development module, the simulated climate is warmer and drier than in the default https://web.archive.org/web/20030328001926/http://www.esig.ucar.edu/asr01/[12/27/2016 1:53:56 PM] ESIG Annual Scientific Report 2001

run, and closer to the observed climate. Differences in 1991 were less striking. These results indicate that including growth and development of vegetation in a climate model can have important effects on the simulated climate. Two articles on this research were published in the Journal of Climate in FY01. This work formed part of the ESIG contribution to CMAP.

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Effect of Changed Climate Variability on Simulated Crops and Ecosystems

While most studies of the impacts of climate change on resource systems and ecosystems have examined the effect of mean change in climate, it is widely believed that changes in variability of climate, in addition to the mean, can have substantial effects. This issue is becoming more important as we learn more about how climate variability may change in the future. During FY01, Mearns and colleagues examined the possible additional effects of changes in variability on these systems. A variant of the daily weather generator of Richardson was modified for these studies. By manipulating the parameters of the generator, changes in the variance (daily and interannual) of time series of temperature and/or precipitation may be produced. In FY96, 97, 98, and 99, Mearns, with colleagues at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and Larry McDaniel, published several papers on the effect of variance changes of temperature and precipitation on simulated crop yields. Much of this work used locations in the Great Plains and primarily considered continuous and fallowed wheat cropping. These studies established the importance of considering changes in both the mean and variability of climate on simulated crops. Additional studies were performed in FY01:

Mearns, with Cynthia Rosenzweig and Richard Goldberg (NASA Goddard, New York) continued research on the effect of changes in variability of climate on simulated crop yields at other locations in the Great Plains and Midwest. They have applied time series of temperature and precipitation with changed variances to CERES-corn and CROPGRO-soybean models. Results so far indicate that increased variance of temperature and precipitation cause substantial decreases in yield, while decreases in variability cause only slight increases in yield. They have begun applying changes in variance from two major AOGCMs, the NCAR PCM and that of GISS, for the region of the Midwest and Great Plains to these crop models for the end of the twenty-first century.

With Marta Vinocur (National University of Redo, Cordoba, Argentina), Mearns has investigated simulated peanut crop responses to climate variability in Cordoba, Argentina. Using PeanutGRO, they explored the effects of different combinations of mean and variance changes of temperature. They found that the crop model was sensitive to both mean and variance changes, but that increases in temperature variance substantially exacerbated decreases in yield and greatly increased the likelihood of crop failures. They are currently exploring the causes for these crop model responses.

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El Niño and Statistics

The general goal of Richard Katz's research on El Niño and statistics is to examine historical connections between statistics and atmospheric science and draw lessons for future multidisciplinary collaborations. Katz wrote a paper on a little-appreciated connection between El Niño and statistics. In this paper, the research of Sir Gilbert Walker, noteworthy for contributions to both statistics and atmospheric science, is reviewed. This paper will appear in Statistical Science in FY02.

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ENSO Info Audit

Information about ENSO's (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) extremes, better known to the general public as El Niño and La Niña, comes from a variety of scientific sources, disciplines, and media. Oceanographers, atmospheric scientists, forecasters, fish biologists, among others, each supply information on the ENSO life cycle and its impacts on societies around the globe - information that could be used by US policymakers to develop mitigation strategies for possible ENSO-related consequences. To date, however, there has been relatively little research into whether, let alone how, ENSO information is actually used in many decision-making processes. Michael Glantz, in collaboration with Jay Lawrimore (NOAA's National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service), proposes to assess the degree of the use of ENSO information in selected units of the US Department of Energy whose activities are directly affected by weather and climate in general and by ENSO's extreme events in particular. The goal of this activity is to bridge the existing gap between the production of scientific information and data and its actual "usability." Such an ENSO Info Audit could provide the United States with the ability to monitor the environment, analyze data, produce forecasts, and disseminate such information

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to a wide range of users, in this case energy-dependent users. The proposal preparation phase of this activity was begun in late FY01.

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Evaluation of Multiple Sources of Uncertainty

Linda Mearns and colleagues have developed a project focusing on agricultural assessment that formally quantifies uncertainties in spatial assessments based on data set sources and various methods of spatial scaling of the data sets and various means of calibrating and validating crop models over space. Climate, soils, and crop management data sets are included.

We are creating methods of aggregation of different types of data over space in the Southeastern US, where we have already developed a number of data sets, and by so doing determine appropriate scale matches for the different variable types. Part of this will involve determining what the concept of matching scales really means operationally. Moreover, the scaling of inputs will be extended for support of an additional goal of calibrating and validating crop models over space.

This project is in collaboration with the University of Florida. In FY01, the ESIG portion of the project involved comparisons of daily weather datasets for the Southeast; and with Sarah Streett (NCAR/GSP), an exploration of the uncertainty of estimates of daily generated climate using a weather generator approach.

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Flood Loss Data Reanalysis

Historical flood loss data are essential for examining the influence of climate, societal factors, and government policies on trends in damaging floods. Yet, little historical data is available. The National Weather Service has collected U.S. flood damage data for nearly a century, but they consist of rough estimates, compiled from a variety of sources. Roger Pielke Jr., Mary Downton, Zoe Miller and Roberta Klein evaluated and updated the NWS damage estimates, in a project partially supported by NOAA/OGP. The corrected data sets include (1) annual U.S. flood damage, 1926-99; (2) flood damage by state, 1955-99; and (3) flood damage by watershed, 1933-75. A searchable flood loss database is being prepared and will be made available to users on the ESIG website in FY02.

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Integrated Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Variability on the Alaskan North Slope Coastal Region

The focus of this project is to understand, support and enhance the local decision-making process on the North Slope of Alaska in the face of climate variability on seasonal to decadal timescales, both natural and anthropogenically induced. The primary goal is to help stakeholders clarify and secure their common interest by exchanging information and knowledge concerning climate and environmental variability. To achieve this goal, Linda Mearns and colleagues will apply an improved understanding and predictive capability of regional climate variability and change to generate a range of scenarios for changing sea ice variability, extreme weather events, storm surges, flooding and coastal erosion, and other environmental factors. These scenarios can be used to predict the probability of stated that affect marine mammals, transportation and offshore resource development. ESIG is working on climate change scenarios and downscaling for the HARC project. The ESIG portion of this project was just begun in late FY01. We have begun to evaluate how well climate models simulate the arctic region.

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Net Fluxes of CO2 in Amazonia Derived from Aircraft Observations

Robert Harriss and colleagues from Harvard University and the NASA Langley Research Center developed a new methodology for deriving net fluxes of CO2 from aircraft measurements taken over Amazon Basin forests. The methodology was applied to measurements made by Harriss in central and eastern Amazonia during the wet season of 1987. In contrast to ground-based studies in upland forests, these results indicated that the carbon budget of Amazonia was in balance at the time the observations were taken. The authors argue that, at the scale of the whole Basin, seasonal hydrological factors may modulate respiration on the forest floor and in wetlands and rivers, offsetting carbon sinks in the upland forests. The findings emphasize the importance of spatial and temporal scale for assessing regional and national carbon budgets. These results have been submitted for publication in the Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres.

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Other Changed Climate and Crop/Ecosystem Projects

Linda Mearns, Justin Wettstein (U Washington), and Larry McDaniel, in collaboration with Allan Auclair (Rand Corporation) continued their NOAA study of the effects of climate variability on forest dieback in the northeastern United States. In FY01, they focused on analyzing the relationships between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/Arctic Oscillation (AO) and local temperature conditions. They found an intensification of spatial patterns of contrasts in winter maximum and minimum temperature in extreme phases of the AO. For example, an extreme positive AO index winter had minimum temperatures 2.5 degrees C warmer in the southwest portion of the Northeast, and .5 degrees C cooler in the Northeast, compared to the extreme negative AO index. Important variations in the daily variance of temperature were also found. A paper describing results was submitted to the Journal of Climate.

Mearns continued the study of the effect of climate change on wheat yields in Italy with Carlo Pona (Agency for New Technologies, Energies, and Environment, Italy [ENEA]). In this case, the effect of both a high spatial resolution climate change scenario (required for a land mass as small as Italy) and changed variance of climate in the future are being investigated. Climate change scenarios for Italy have been generated from output of the RegCM2 European runs. Numerous sensitivity analyses with CERES-wheat have been performed for locations in Italy; crop model runs with mean climate change scenarios throughout Italy have been made; and the effects of changes in daily and interannual climate variability are being examined at selected stations. Results have been published in the ECLAT-2 volume on Applying Climate Scenarios for Regional Studies.

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Statistics of Extremes

Richard Katz's research on statistics of extremes develops improved statistical methodology for climate variability, climate change, and impacts (both hydrologic and economic) involving extreme events. Specific topics include: extreme events and climate change and statistical downscaling of extremes.

Extreme Events and Climate Change: In collaboration with Philippe Naveau (École Polytechnique, France), Richard Katz neared completion of work on a review of the use of the statistics of extremes as applied to climate change and its impacts. Evidence is increasing that climate variables (e.g., precipitation), related variables (e.g., streamflow), and impact variables (e.g., economic damages) all have distributions with heavy upper tails. Yet, this characteristic is not taken into account in statistical analysis of extremes (e.g., trend detection).

Statistical Downscaling of Extremes: Although there has been much work on statistical downscaling as well as on statistical modeling of extremes, this effort is the first to make use of the statistics of extremes in downscaling. Collaboration with Marc Parlange (Johns Hopkins U) began on a review of the use of the statistics of extremes in hydrology.

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Urban Metabolism

Robert Harriss and colleagues will convene two workshops in FY02 for a dialogue on dynamic and complex interactions fundamental to the co-evolution of cities and the atmosphere. The workshops will focus on implications of urbanization for long-term emission scenarios that drive global climate models and on specific strategies to reduce urban emission sources of atmospheric methane. The latter workshop is being planned jointly with the University of New Hampshire and is also a contribution to the development of a North American Carbon Program implementation plan. The core hypothesis is that the continuing, rapid urbanization of the human population will have a profound influence on the evolving nature of our global chemical and physical climate systems. The objective is to develop strategies that can accomplish significant reductions in urban respiration products (e.g., criteria air pollutants and greenhouse gases) in the coming era of urban growth.

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Water Cycle Study Plan

Kathleen Miller contributed to the report of the Water Cycle Study Group for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. The report, entitled A Plan for a New Science Initiative on the Global Water Cycle (Hornberger et al., 2001), reviews the current state of understanding of the interactions between the

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global water cycle and human activities. While the report focuses heavily on desired advancements in the physical science and related monitoring systems, it also addresses societal needs for that information, and attempts to prioritize elements of the proposed research program on the basis of societal needs.

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[ Director's Message ] [ Table of Contents ] [ Scientific Highlights ] [ Fundamental Research ] [ Enhancing Productivity and Resilience of Natural Resources ] [ Protection of Life and Property ] [ Outreach ] [ Publications ] [ Community Service ] [ Educational Activities ] [ Staff, Visitors and Collaborators ] [ NCAR ASR 2001 Home Page ] [ ESIG Home Page ]

https://web.archive.org/web/20030328001926/http://www.esig.ucar.edu/asr01/[12/27/2016 1:53:56 PM] ESIG Annual Scientific Report 2001

Enhancing Productivity and Resilience of Natural Resources

[ Climate Variability and Agriculture in the Southeastern United States ] [ Soil Organic Matter and the Sustainability of Chinese Agriculture ] [ Transboundary Fisheries: Pacific Salmon ] [ US National Assessment ] [ Water Resources in the West ] [ Will Tropical Forests Survive the Twenty-First Century? ] [ Yangtze Basin Floods of 1998: Forecasts and Responses ] [ Yangtze Delta in China as Evolving Metro-Agro-Plex ]

Climate Variability and Agriculture in the Southeastern United States

Research on three overlapping multiyear projects (NASA/USEPA/USDA) has continued by Linda Mearns, Richard Katz, Larry McDaniel, Elena Tsvetskinskaya, Gregory Carbone (U South Carolina), Bette Walter-Shea (U Nebraska), and William Easterling (Pennsylvania State U). Regional climate modeling and conditioned stochastic modeling form the basis of several different types of climate change scenarios. Remote sensing, crop and economic model, and spatial scaling analysis make up the other elements of the projects. Major accomplishments in the projects include:

Production runs of six different crop models with and without direct CO2 effects and with adaptation, using a baseline climate data set and the two different resolution climate scenarios on a baseline grid of 0.5 by 0.5 degrees, calculation of percentage changes in yield (from baseline), and comparison of these for the coarse and fine scenarios; Application of an additional cotton model, GOSSYM;

Application of complex spatial statistics to determine significance of contrast in mean and spatial patterns of yields;

Production of two different resolutions scenarios for the rest of the United States (with a coarser baseline grid);

Application of all yield results to an agricultural sector model (ASM);

Analysis of observed temperature and precipitation data sets in the Southeast United States for development of stochastic models conditioned on the Bermuda High Index. (For more information, see the last paragraph in this section on "Statistical Downscaling of Weather Generators.")

Highlights of Results: We found that significantly different changes in most yields resulted from the two different scenarios, when calculated on the common 50-km grid of the regional climate model for the case of climate change only, climate change plus CO2, and adaptation effects. In the climate-change-only case, for most crops, yield decreased for the two scenarios, but decreases were greater when determined from the regional climate scenario. Mearns and colleagues then aggregated the yield results to the economic units (usually states) required for use in the ASM and found that for some states the significantly different results persisted. The economic model was run for the base case and for the two climate-change- plus-direct-CO2 cases, and for the two adaptation cases. For the country as a whole, the coarse-scale scenario resulted in substantially increased total surplus for the agricultural sector, but the fine-scale scenario produced a very small increase. Regional index numbers for the total value of production, which is a measure of economic activity within the regions, show interesting contrasts across the regions, based on the scenarios. The southeast and Appalachian regions show the largest decreased in activity for both scenarios, but the decrease with the fine-scale scenario is much larger. With adaptation, the contrast between the scenario scale effect decreased, but was still discernable. Results indicate that the scale of climate change scenario substantially affects the simulation of changes in crop yields on various levels of spatial aggregation. These results further confirm the earlier results of Mearns et al. (1999, 2001), but for a larger region and a greater variety of crops. Moreover, Mearns and colleagues have demonstrated that these contrasts in changes in yield are substantial enough to affect the results of an agricultural economic model, both on national and regional levels.

Statistical Downscaling of Weather Generators: The goal of this research is to develop improved statistical methodology for generating climate change scenarios at local/regional spatial scale and on daily time scales conditional on large-scale circulation patterns. In collaboration with Marc Parlange (Johns Hopkins U) and Claudia Tebaldi (NCAR/RAP), Richard Katz neared completion of https://web.archive.org/web/20030328001926/http://www.esig.ucar.edu/asr01/[12/27/2016 1:54:31 PM] ESIG Annual Scientific Report 2001

work on the development of stochastic weather generators for locations in Southeast United States conditional on indices of large- scale atmospheric/ oceanic circulation (especially the so-called Bermuda High).

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Soil Organic Matter and the Sustainability of Chinese Agriculture

Robert Harriss is a member of an international team investigating the trends and status of soil organic matter in China's major crop growing regions. A modeling study was conducted that integrates geospatial data on soil resources with information on farming practices to estimate potential changes in soil carbon and nitrogen stocks and fluxes. We discovered that, on average, cropland soils were losing organic carbon at a rate of 1.8% per year, primarily due to burning crop residues rather that re-incorporating them into the soil. This study relates both soil degradation and freshwater eutrophication to the same source - long-term losses of soil organic matter. These results have been submitted for publication in Ecological Applications.

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Transboundary Fisheries: Pacific Salmon

Kathleen Miller is the co-Principal Investigator of this NOAA/OGP- funded project, working with Robert McKelvey (U Montana) and Gordon Munro (U British Columbia). Pacific salmon are anadromous fish that cross state and international boundaries in their oceanic migrations. The history of attempts by the United States and Canada to cooperatively manage their respective salmon harvests suggests that environmental variability may complicate the management of such shared resources. Miller and colleagues prepared two papers, the first of which draws lessons from the recent period of turmoil to identify strengths and weaknesses in the new abundance-based management approach, and to suggest avenues for further negotiations to secure more rational management of Pacific salmon resources. This paper, "Climate, Uncertainty and the Pacific Salmon Treaty: Insights on the Harvest Management Game," was published in FY01 in the Proceedings of the International Institute of Fishery Economics and Trade. A second, more extensive paper focuses on the 1999 Pacific Salmon Agreement. This paper, entitled: "The 1999 Pacific Salmon Agreement: A Sustainable Solution?" provides a more complete description of the application of game theoretic concepts to understanding the role of climate-related changes in abundance and migratory patterns in the history of the U.S./Canadian Pacific salmon management. This paper also provides an updated analysis of experience under the new Agreement, and draws upon experience in other fisheries to evaluate further options for maintaining cooperation in the Pacific salmon case. This paper was published in FY01 as Canadian-American Public Policy Occasional Paper No. 47, University of Maine.

The project also has encompassed considerable development of the game theoretic models by Robert McKelvey. Two NCAR technical reports were published this period: (1) McKelvey, R., 2001. The Split-Stream Harvesting Game I: Mathematical Analysis, NCAR Technical Report, NCAR/TN-449+STR - Part I; (2) McKelvey, R., and G. Cripe, 2001: The Split-Stream Harvesting Game II: Numerical and Simulation Studies, NCAR Technical Report, NCAR/TN-449+STR - Part II. These papers provided part of the theoretical foundation for the Canadian-American Public Policy Paper and are the basis for continuing collaboration between McKelvey and Miller on the general problem of international management of shared fishery resources under conditions of environmental variability.

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U.S. National Assessment

Linda Mearns and Kathleen Miller were members of various U.S. National Assessment teams. Mearns is a member of the National Agriculture Sector Team and is a major contributor to the Report (published by Cambridge University Press) on that sector, particularly the chapter on climate variability and crops. A paper has been submitted to Climatic Change on Agriculture Sector results. Mearns is also a member of the Climate Change Scenarios Writing Team for the Assessment. On a regional level, Mearns is a member of the Assessment Teams for the Southwest Region and the Rocky Mountain Basin and Range Region. Miller is on the Assessment Teams for the Great Plains Region and the Water Resources Sector. On these teams, they provided advice on development and use of climate change scenarios and contributed to Regional Assessment Reports.

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Water Resources in the West https://web.archive.org/web/20030328001926/http://www.esig.ucar.edu/asr01/[12/27/2016 1:54:31 PM] ESIG Annual Scientific Report 2001

The climate of the West continues to play a role in the developing western economy. Much of the West is arid, and climate is one factor attracting a new wave of migration into the region. However, limited water supplies create tensions between the "old West" that was built on irrigated agriculture and the "new urban West." A paper published in FY01 by Kathleen Miller, "Climate and Water Resources in the West: Past and Future," was included in a special issue of Journal of the West. This paper discusses the role of climate and streamflow characteristics in the historical development of water resources in the western United States, and the challenges presented by changing demands on water resources, coupled with the possible impacts of climate change. Miller and Steven Gloss (U Wyoming) have also prepared a paper on "Climate Variability and Water Resources in the Interior West: Social, Policy, and Institutional Issues," which will be published in FY02 by the University of Colorado Press. This paper deals with climate variability in the region over the past several decades. The authors argue that research on effective policy and institutional arrangements is necessary to take advantage of recent scientific and technical advances in predicting the nature and extent of climate variability.

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Will Tropical Forests Survive the Twentieth Century?

The need for accurate estimates of forest cover and of forest fragmentation is a critical issue for developing countries such as Costa Rica, which holds between 4% to 5% of all biodiversity in the world. In this study, Robert Harriss and colleagues provide comprehensive and accurate estimates of forest cover for Costa Rica using LANDSAT-5 Thematic Matter satellite scenes acquired between 1986 and 1991. This study concludes that:

1. In 1991, 29% (~14,000 km2) of the land cover of Costa Rica was evergreen forest cover. Of that forested area, approximately 30% is protected by national conservation policies.

2. Forest loss in a study area representing 93% of Costa Rica's territory during a five-year period (1986-1991) was 2,250 km2, and the estimated deforestation rate of ~450 km2 per year or ~4.2% per year of remaining forest cover.

3. Tropical forests are almost completely eliminated from the moist tropical and moist premontane forest life zones.

4. The level of forest fragmentation in remaining forested areas may be more advanced that previously understood.

These results were published in Biotropica, 33(3), 378-384. A follow- on study is planned using LANDSAT-7 scenes acquired in 2000- 2001.

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Yangtze Basin Floods of 1998: Forecasts and Responses

Michael Glantz and ESIG visitor Qian Ye (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences), began a project in FY01 supported by NOAA's Office of Global Programs to research the setting for the 1998 Great Flood in the Yangtze River basin in the context of the 1997-98 ENSO event by studying various reports in China that were filed by government agencies and research institutes. Study results will include an investigation of how ENSO information was used for: (1) the forecasting of snow cover in the Tibetan-Qinghai Plateau, (2) management of the Yangtze River flow, and (3) making short-term forecasts. Analysis of the difference between using ENSO information for differing time scales is being carried out, and comparison of the value of forecasts from differing points of view (i.e., the meteorological community, users of forecast information, and the general public) is being analyzed as well.

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Yangtze Delta in China as Evolving Metro-Agro-Plex

A three-year project funded by NASA continued on this subject during FY01. Linda Mearns, Larry McDaniel, Filippo Giorgi (CGD/Trieste Institute of Physics) and Wei Gao (NREL, Fort Collins) worked in collaboration with Bill Chameides (Georgia Institute of Technology). This is an international, multidisciplinary research project focusing on the effects of regional environmental change on agriculture in China, the most populous and rapidly developing nation in the world. The project includes the assessment of major pollutants (ground-level ozone, nitrogen oxides, gaseous sulfur oxides) and their effects on present-day and future agriculture yields of crops, as well as the effects of particulate emissions and land-use changes on the regional climate in China and their concomitant impact on future agricultural yields. Mearns and colleagues primarily modeled wheat and rice crops for the region, using CERES and UCLA-YIELD crop models. The CERES wheat and rice models were validated and tested for locations within the Yangtze River Delta using data supplied by colleagues at the Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences in Nanjing, China. Sensitivity analyses of the https://web.archive.org/web/20030328001926/http://www.esig.ucar.edu/asr01/[12/27/2016 1:54:31 PM] ESIG Annual Scientific Report 2001

crop model responses to decreased solar radiation have been performed. Decreases in solar radiation occur in the region due to heavy sulfate emissions. Results indicate that a ten percent increase (decrease) in solar irradiance produces about a ten percent increase (decrease) in simulated wheat yields. A similar linear response was found for rice (percentage change in crop yields). A paper on these results was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences during FY01.

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[ Director's Message ] [ Table of Contents ] [ Scientific Highlights ] [ Fundamental Research ] [ Enhancing Productivity and Resilience of Natural Resources ] [ Protection of Life and Property ] [ Outreach ] [ Publications ] [ Community Service ] [ Educational Activities ] [ Staff, Visitors and Collaborators ] [ NCAR ASR 2001 Home Page ] [ ESIG Home Page ]

https://web.archive.org/web/20030328001926/http://www.esig.ucar.edu/asr01/[12/27/2016 1:54:31 PM] ESIG Annual Scientific Report 2001

28 Feb 02 - 16 Feb 05 2002 2003 2004

Protection of Life and Property

[ Climate and Health Initiative ] [ Disaster Diplomacy ] [ Disaster Prevention in the Lower Rio Grande ] [ Effects of Weather Forecasts on Society ] [ Methods of Assessing Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts ] [ Extreme Weather and Climate Events ] [ Flashpoints and Hotspots ] [ Population Growth and Climate Change ] [ Risk-Benefit Assessment of Observing System Decision Alternatives ] [ Wildland Fire Initiative ]

Climate and Health Initiative

In FY01, Linda Mearns began a multidisciplinary initiative with other ESIG members and Sasha Madronich (ACD) to establish a Climate/Human Health Program at NCAR. This initiative will bring together leading institutions in health and climate science in an ongoing multiyear program to develop needed linkages in health and climate issues. Such a program is required to train individuals in complex interdisciplinary research and to address the multifaceted interactions of climate, health, and society. The program will help to produce the first generation of scholars dedicated to an integration of health and climate science. Three main institutions will form the center of the program: NCAR, Johns Hopkins University, and the Center for Disease Control and Prevention. A meeting of potential collaborators is planned for FY02, and a detailed program plan will be developed and submitted to interested funding agencies. Many collaborators have already been identified, including experts in epidemiology, disease/society interactions, microbiology and water- borne disease, environmental health sciences, and climatology.

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Disaster Diplomacy

The idea behind "disaster diplomacy" is to identify areas of diplomatic cooperation that could foreseeably result between national governments in conflict from concern about or impacts of a shared natural disaster. A paper written by Michael Glantz traces the history of climate-related cooperation between the United States and Cuba, two countries that have poor diplomatic relations with each other. It identified and analyzed areas of present interaction and conflict, with particular respect to the forecasts of and responses to the ENSO cycle and the extreme meteorological events that are spawned by El Niño. Glantz concluded that if there is to be an improved, long-lasting, mutually beneficial interaction between these two countries with regard to the ENSO phenomenon, it will have to come as a result of a broad political rapprochement between the two governments at the highest levels. The paper, "Climate-Related Disaster Diplomacy: A US-Cuban Case Study," appeared in the winter issue of the Cambridge Review of International Affairs in December 2000.

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Disaster Prevention in the Lower Rio Grande

Robert Harriss has been involved in a collaborative project with the Rio Grande Institute (RGI) and the Texas Natural Resources Information System (TNRIS). NCAR participated in evaluating and upgrading certain remote sensing and environmental information resources available to local communities and universities/colleges located in the Texas-Mexico border region. The initial phase of this project was supported by a cooperative agreement that RGI maintains with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The geographic focus of the project has been on communities within or near the countries of Willacy, Cameron, Hidalgo, Starr, Zapata, Webb, and Val Verde in the Texas-Mexico border region.

In FY01, initial discussions were conducted with Texas A&M University-Kingsville on NCAR's contribution to a climate impact workshop entitled "South Texas in 2050." NCAR/ESIG has agreed to provide climate scenarios and guidance on impact assessment methodologies to all workshop participants. Professor James Norwine from TAMU-Kingsville agreed to join ESIG as a visiting scientist in the summers of 2002 and 2003 to advise on curriculum and training needs for climate impact assessment and emergency https://web.archive.org/web/20030328001926/http://www.esig.ucar.edu/asr01/[12/27/2016 1:54:53 PM] ESIG Annual Scientific Report 2001

management in Texas-Mexico border universities and colleges.

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Effects of Weather Forecasts on Society

Rebecca Morss continued working with Roger Pielke, Jr. (formerly at NCAR, now at the University of Colorado) and others on connecting observing systems, weather forecasts, and their effects on society. As part of this project, she and Pielke are currently co- authoring a paper that discusses the importance of using an unbiased conceptual framework when studying these connections and when analyzing the costs and benefits of proposed observing system changes. She also spent four weeks in February and March 2001 observing and interviewing weather forecasters and users of forecasts in conjunction with the Pacific Landfalling Jets Experiment (PACJET), an experiment to improve wintertime weather forecasts for the West Coast of the U.S. (organized by F. Martin Ralph at NOAA). In addition, she collaborated with Pielke, Robert Harriss, Mel Shapiro (NCAR/NOAA), Rolf Langland (Naval Research Laboratory), Bob Gall, and others, on developing a societal impacts component of The Hemispheric Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX), a proposed set of major field experiments during the next decade to improve 0- to 10-day mid- latitude weather forecasts.

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Methods for Assessing Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts

The goal of this research has been to evaluate methodology for quantifying the economic value of imperfect weather and climate forecasts. During the past year, Richard Katz contributed to the planning of an international research program (i.e., design of appropriate measures of value of potential improvements in weather forecasts as a consequence of The Hemispheric Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment [THORPEX]). A website that categorizes recent case studies of the value of weather and climate forecasts continues to be maintained and updated as well.

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Extreme Weather and Climate Events

Many NCAR divisions are involved in research aspects of extreme weather and climate events. These research areas would benefit from a more integrated focus by combining studies of (1) the atmospheric science of extremes (global climate and mesoscale models), (2) the statistical aspects of extremes (further development and application of extreme value theory), and (3) the societal impacts, resilience, and vulnerability to extremes. Work on developing a comprehensive, cross-division extremes initiative began in FY01, with ESIG, RAP, MMM, and CGD scientists expecting to complete the initiative in FY02.

Various other initiatives and ongoing projects on extreme weather and climate events were carried out during FY01 as follows:

Extreme Heat. Heat waves are subtle hazards that claim more human lives than any other natural hazard. The rapid growth of urban populations, the urban heat island effect, and a potential increase in the frequency and duration of heat waves due to global climate change raises a series of issues about the health impacts of urban population and the effective means of hazard mitigation. Olga Wilhelmi (ASP) worked together with Robert Harriss and Katie Purvis (ASP) on evaluating the role of geospatial information technologies in mitigation of heat wave impacts. The paper, in preparation, addresses the issues of social and economic trends that exacerbate human vulnerability in cities, discusses the question of how remote sensing and GIS technologies can enhance understanding, communication, and effectiveness in the prevention of heat wave impacts in urban areas, and presents a conceptual framework for heat wave impacts mitigation. During the summer 2001, SOARS protégé Casey Thornbrugh worked with Harriss, Wilhelmi, Shannon McNeeley, and Asher Ghertner on the heat wave project, "Are American cities ready for the hot times ahead?" This work focused on two case studies (Chicago and Philadelphia) and formed the basis for the Heat Wave Awareness website (in progress).

Extreme Weather Sourcebook 2001. The Extreme Weather Sourcebook was first created in 1998 by Pielke et al. to provide quick access to data on the cost of damages from hurricanes, floods, and tornadoes in the United States and its territories. The Sourcebook was updated in FY01 by Roger Pielke, Jr. and Roberta Klein to include data through 1999 on these extreme events in constant 1999 dollars, simplifying comparisons among extreme-weather impacts and states or regions. New additions to the Sourcebook include data on lightning, hail, thunderstorms, heavy rainfall, windstorms, and winter storms. The report was issued in 2001, with the assistance of the American Meteorological Society and UCAR. The Sourcebook moved to Pielke's new website at

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CIRES (U Colorado) in FY01.

Stochastic Models for Damage from Extreme Weather: Richard Katz completed work on a stochastic model for economic damage associated with extreme weather events, such as hurricanes. A paper on this subject was submitted to the Journal of Applied Meteorology.

Hurricane Mitch. Michael Glantz and Dale Jamieson (Carleton College) prepared a paper on Hurricane Mitch and Honduras, raising some of the ethical issues that surround the decision of whom to help, when, and how to help in the wake of such a human tragedy. Honduras, at the time of Hurricane Mitch, was the fourth-poorest country in Latin America. The devastation wrought by Hurricane Mitch should serve as a catalyst for governments in the region and the donor community to reconsider how best to design, implement, and integrate development and disaster relief strategies. This paper addressed considerations about the conflicts between intra-generational and inter-generational issues and briefly discussed the notion of "leapfrog" development, followed by a discussion of persistent global inequities. The paper appeared in FY01 in a special issue of Risk Analysis.

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Flashpoints and Hotspots

A "flashpoint" can be defined as a current, dormant, or potential area of geopolitical instability. It can also be applied to a wide range of conflict situations where military action is not involved. An environmental catastrophe can be a flashpoint with respect to societal instability, a hurricane can lead to economic instability, or a drought can lead to migration, which can lead to conflicts. In an attempt to review the value of the notion of "flashpoints" for earliest warning of potential conflict situations from a climate perspective, Michael Glantz, with Kelly Sponberg (NOAA/OGP), organized a planning meeting to bring together different disciplines, countries, and government agencies to assess the application of climate- related flashpoints to decision making. The meeting was postponed from 20-22 September 2001 because of the recent terrorist activities and will be held on 4-5 April 2002 at Columbia University in New York.

Glantz undertook a new activity in FY01 with the UN Food and Agriculture Organization's Environment and Natural Resource Service (SDRN) on "agricultural-environmental hotspots." In recent decades, growing demand for food, fiber, cash crops, and so forth because of expanding populations may cause agricultural activities and environmental conditions to affect each other in adverse ways. This can result in, for example, farmers encroaching onto forested land, or cultivators converting pastureland to farmland. These areas can be viewed as "hotspots," where agricultural practices and environmental conditions intersect to cause environmental degradation. If the processes are allowed to continue, the "hotspots" would become increasingly extreme, leading to reduced crop production and further environmental degradation. Glantz is working with the SDRN to undertake what could be called a "hotspots audit," to identify monitoring activities being carried out within various areas of the FAO and other organizations. This activity will conclude in FY02.

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Population Growth and Climate Change

Population growth and climate change are similar, in that each unfolds slowly, over decades, and each manifests a "momentum phenomenon" in which the effectiveness of efforts to decrease the forces driving the rapid growth is reduced by the long persistence of additional carbon dioxide in the atmosphere or the future births from the very large generation of young people resulting from the high fertility of recent decades. In FY01, John Firor and a colleague completed a book manuscript on this subject, entitled The Crowded Greenhouse: Population, Climate Change, and Sustainability. This book will be published by Yale University Press and is scheduled to appear in FY02.

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Risk-Benefit Assessment of Observing System Decision Alternatives

The Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite was launched in November 1997. On 18-19 June 2001, Roger Pielke, Jr. convened a workshop at NCAR in collaboration with NASA to discuss the decision of whether to place the TRMM satellite in a low earth orbit in order to extend its lifetime, or de-orbit in a controlled fashion, virtually eliminating any risks to human life and property. The workshop was organized by ESIG and included the participation of NASA (and NASA-supported) scientists and managers. Partly as a result of the decisions made at this workshop, the satellite was changed to its new orbit altitude under the control of NASA engineers at Goddard Space Flight Center. This orbital change could extend the lifespan of TRMM to somewhere between 2005

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and 2007. A workshop report is available on line through Roger Pielke, Jr.'s new website at CIRES (U Colorado).

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Wildland Fire Initiative

The Wildland Fire Research and Development program is a new NCAR initiative, led by Richard Wagoner (RAP) and Janice Coen (MMM/RAP). The three major components of the program are wildland fire science, societal impacts, and operational applications. Robert Harriss and Olga Wilhelmi are working on the societal impacts portion of the initiative, which is focused on analyzing and effectively communicating the societal impacts of wildland fire that are relevant to policymaking, strategic planning, and operational decision support systems. Initial research will be focused on assessment of user requirements within the wildland fire community and developing a methodology for integrating fire modeling and GIS.

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[ Director's Message ] [ Table of Contents ] [ Scientific Highlights ] [ Publications ] [ Community Service ] [ Educational Activities ] [ Staff, Visitors and Collaborators ] [ Fundamental Research ] [ Protection of Life and Property ] [ Education and Outreach ] [ Enhancing Productivity and Resilience of Natural Resources ] [ NCAR ASR 2001 Home Page ] [ ESIG Home Page ]

https://web.archive.org/web/20030328001926/http://www.esig.ucar.edu/asr01/[12/27/2016 1:54:53 PM] ESIG Annual Scientific Report 2001

28 Feb 02 - 16 Feb 05

Outreach

[ Case Studies of Forecast Value Website ] [ Climate Affairs Program Development ] [ Clim-Econ Discussion List ] [ Encyclopedia of Global Environmental Change ] [ ENSO Signal ] [ Geophysical Statistics Project (GSP) ] [ Handbook of Weather, Climate, and Water – Societal Aspects Volume ] [ Network Newsletter ] [ Regional Climate Research: Needs and Opportunities ] [ Societal Aspects of Weather Website ] [ Societal Vulnerability and Climate ] [ WeatherZine ] [ What to Fund Amidst the Fads ]

Case Studies of Forecast Value Website

This website categorizes recent case studies of the value of weather and climate forecasts and is maintained and updated by Richard Katz. Originally developed by Shelly Knight (RAP), its scope is focused on prescriptive studies that obtain quantitative estimates of forecast value.

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Climate Affairs Program Development

Michael Glantz continued to develop the notion of "Climate Affairs" during FY01 with a feasibility assessment of a Climate Affairs Master's Program at Columbia University's Earth Institute (New York). The result of this assessment concluded that faculty interest in climate affairs activities exists in many academic departments and institutes at Columbia. Glantz developed generic guidelines for a multi-disciplinary program or course concentration that can be modified to meet the special interests and expertise of faculty members, departments, institutes, centers, students, and schools at this university, as well as at other centers of education and training. Glantz will continue to work with Columbia and other universities and colleges in the United States and abroad during FY02.

Glantz has been collaborating with Professor Susan Burgerman, deputy director of the Institute for Latin American Studies (ILAS) at Columbia University to set up a conference on climate affairs in Latin America. The multidisciplinary, multinational conference will be held at the end of January 2002.

Glantz has also collaborated with Zafar Adeel (United Nations U) to convene a training workshop for the South and Southeast Asian region for a United Nations University/NCAR Climate Affairs Program. This workshop is designed to have introductory lectures and interactive sessions to provide educators some experience with various aspects of climate affairs (science, impacts, policy, economics, and ethics). It will be held at the University of Malaya in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, in February 2002. It is intended to "educate the educators" by developing an awareness among educators in a variety of disciplines about how climate affects all aspects of life, and that decision makers in developing, as well as developed, countries can improve the way they are affected by enhancing their understanding of climate affairs.

Glantz also made several formal and informal presentations on Climate Affairs during FY01, including one at Gettysburg College (April 2001) and the United Nations University (Tokyo, Japan, June 2001). He also began preparations on a book with Island Press entitled Climate and Social Dynamics: A Primer, which will introduce the notion of climate affairs to a broad audience. This book is designed to foster human capacity building with respect to climate and climate-related issues in all countries, regardless of the level of economic development.

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Clim-Econ Discussion List

The Economics of Climate Variability and Global Change list (Clim- Econ) is a moderated electronic discussion group, created and managed by Kathleen Miller, which serves to facilitate interdisciplinary discussion on the economic aspects of climate

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variability and change. The initial subscribers included the participants in the Institute on the Economics of the Climate Resource held at NCAR in June 1995. The list currently has more than 500 subscribers from around the world, including individuals with a variety of backgrounds and professional affiliations.

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Encyclopedia of Global Environmental Change

Three ESIG scientists have contributed to the five-volume encyclopedia, to be published in FY02 by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Michael Glantz wrote an invited article on the Aral Sea and its demise as the worst human-caused environmental disaster of the twentieth century. John Firor contributed an article on Walter Orr Roberts, and Roger Pielke, Jr. contributed an article on weather extremes and climate impacts. These volumes comprise the first comprehensive integrated reference work in this multidisciplinary field.

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ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) Signal

Michael Glantz, Editor, and D. Jan Stewart, Managing Editor, produced four issues of the ENSO Signal during FY01 with funds from NOAA's Office of Global Programs. The Signal is intended to educate and inform those interested in the ENSO cycle and its impacts on ecosystems and societies, as well as help to maintain interest in ENSO during ENSO-neutral periods.

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Geophysical Statistics Project (GSP)

Richard Katz serves as co-Principal Investigator, along with Joseph Tribbia (CGD) and Douglas Nychka (GSP) on a five-year grant (renewal started in FY99) from the NSF Division of Mathematical Sciences for a GSP Program at NCAR. Nychka serves as the project leader of GSP. The FY01 accomplishments of GSP are included under the section for the Climate and Global Dynamics Division.

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Handbook of Weather, Climate, and Water – Societal Aspects Volume

Several members of ESIG have contributed to a special volume (Societal Aspects) of the Handbook of Weather, Climate, and Water, to be published in FY02 by John Wiley & Sons. Michael Glantz served as the Volume Editor and he, Roger Pielke Jr., and Kathleen Miller each contributed a chapter to this volume.

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Network Newsletter

Now in its seventeenth year, this international, multidisciplinary newsletter has witnessed continued growth in its mailing list (now almost 4,000 recipients). Michael Glantz, Editor, and D. Jan Stewart, Managing Editor, have continued to work on networking research centers, nongovernmental organizations, universities, institutes, government agencies, and individuals dealing with climate-related impact assessments by producing the quarterly, climate-impacts- related Network Newsletter. Approximately half of the recipients are international. The newsletter has been produced quarterly since 1985 in its paper edition, and was put on line in FY96. NOAA's Office of Global Programs contributed to the production of the newsletter during FY01.

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Regional Climate Research: Needs and Opportunities

Linda Mearns and Ruby Leung (Pacific Northwest National Lab) convened a workshop at NCAR on issues in regionalization techniques, funded by the Department of Energy and NSF, on 2-4 April 2001. Typical research issues that were raised at the workshop included the examination of uncertainties related to two-way nesting, and limitations of statistical methods for long-term regional projections. The workshop report was prepared and distributed on line.

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Societal Aspects of Weather Website

The Societal Aspects of Weather website has been developed over the past several years by Roger Pielke, Jr., with assistance in 2001 from Jennifer Oxelson and Roberta Klein, in order to facilitate, encourage, and support the formation of a researcher/user partnership and community of people involved in studying the societal aspects of weather. It serves as a central clearinghouse for on-line resources on this topic and provides needed tools for increased interaction between researchers and users of weather information. During FY01, this site moved to the Center for Science and Technology Policy Research at the University of Colorado.

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Societal Vulnerability and Climate

On 8 June 2001 in Washington, DC, Roger Pielke, Jr., gave a major presentation to the Climate Change Science Forum of the National Academies and the US Senate. Policy debate and advocacy on the issue of climate change frequently focus on the potential future impacts of climate on society. Pielke's presentation emphasized that societal impacts of climate are the joint result of climate phenomena and societal vulnerability to those phenomena.

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WeatherZine

In FY01, the WeatherZine electronic newsletter produced six bimonthly editions. It is an on-line and email-distributed newsletter for the Societal Aspects of Weather website. It contains a summary of recent additions to the site, and links to relevant sections, along with editorials, news, events, and announcements of interest to the community. As of FY01, more than 700 people have subscribed, and many others are reached via the Web and through news groups. During FY01, the WeatherZine moved to the Center for Science and Technology Policy Research at the University of Colorado.

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What to Fund Amidst the Fads

Michael Glantz made a presentation during FY01 in Washington, DC, entitled "What to Fund Amidst the Fads" to more than 40 philanthropic environmental organizations (funding agencies). The talk focused on a general concern that funding agencies tend to lose interest in supporting projects after some period of time. This creates problems for the researchers, who have often identified new key research topics. However, by the time they have done so, the funding agencies have often moved on to support different issues. This suggests that there is a disconnection between the funding needs of researchers and the relatively short attention span of funding agencies. The presentation suggested how this dilemma could be resolved.

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[ Director's Message ] [ Table of Contents ] [ Scientific Highlights ] [ Fundamental Research ] [ Enhancing Productivity and Resilience of Natural Resources ] [ Protection of Life and Property ] [ Outreach ] [ Publications ] [ Community Service ] [ Educational Activities ] [ Staff, Visitors and Collaborators ] [ NCAR ASR 2001 Home Page ] [ ESIG Home Page ]

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Help

ESIG FY01 Publications

[ Refereed ] [ Non-Refereed ]

(* denotes a non-NCAR author; Bold denotes a university affiliation.)

Refereed

Broad, K., A. Pfaff, and M.H. Glantz, 2002: Effective and equitable dissemination of seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts: Policy implications from the Peruvian fishery during El Niño 1997-98. Climatic Change, accepted for publication.

*Burke, D. et al. (including L.O. Mearns), 2001: Under the Weather: Climate, Ecosystems, and Infectious Disease. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.

Carter, T.R., E. La Rovere, R. Leemans, L.O. Mearns, N. Nakicenovic, A.B. Pittock, S. Semenov, and J. Skea, 2001: The development and applications of scenarios in climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability assessment. Chapter 3 in: Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 145-190.

Cohen, S. and K.A. Miller (Lead Authors), 2001: North America. Chapter 15 in: Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 735-800.

Committee on Geophysical and Environmental Data (R.J. Serafin, member), 2001: Resolving Conflicts Arising from the Privatization of Environmental Data. National Research Council, Board on Earth Sciences and Resources, Committee on Geophysical and Environmental Data. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.

Downton, M. and R.A. Pielke, Jr., 2001: Discretion without accountability: Climate, flood damage and presidential politics. (PDF file) Natural Hazards Review, 2(4), 157-166.

Easterling, W., L.O. Mearns, and C. Hays, 2001: Comparison of agriculture impacts of climate change calculated from high and low resolution climate model scenarios. Part II: The effect of adaptations. Climatic Change, 51(2), 173-197.

Firor, J.F. and *J.E. Jacobsen, 2002: The Crowded Greenhouse: Population, Climate Change, and Sustainability. Yale University Press (in press).

Firor, J.F., 2002: Walter Orr Roberts. In: M.C. MacCracken and J.S. Perry (eds.), The Earth System: Physical and Chemical Dimensions of Global Environmental Change, Volume 1 of Encyclopedia of Global Environmental Change. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons, 625.

Giorgi, F., P. Whetton, R. Jones, J.H. Christensen, L.O. Mearns, B. Hewitson, and H. Von Storch, 2001: Emerging patterns of simulated regional climatic changes for the 21st century due to anthropogenic forcings. Geophysical Research Letters, 28(17), 3317-3327.

Giorgi, F., B. Hewitson, J. Christensen, M. Hulme, H. Von Storch, P. Whetton, R. Jones, L.O. Mearns, and C. Fu, 2001: Regional climate information: Evaluations and projections. Chapter 10 in: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of IPCC. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 739-768.

Glantz, M.H., 2001: Currents of Change: El Niño and La Niña Impacts on Climate and Society. Second edition. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. 252 pp.

Glantz, M.H. (ed.), 2001: Once Burned, Twice Shy? Lessons Learned from the 1997-98 El Niño. Tokyo, Japan: United Nations University Press. 294 pp.

Glantz, M.H. (ed.), 2002: Societal Aspects. Special volume editor of Handbook of Weather, Climate and Water (T. Potter and B. Colman, eds.). New York: John Wiley & Sons (in press).

Glantz, M.H., 2000: Climate-related disaster diplomacy: A U.S.- Cuban case study. Cambridge Review of International Affairs, XIV(1), Autumn-Winter, 233-253.

Glantz, M.H., 2002: The Aral Sea. In: T. Munn (ed.), Responding to Global Environmental Change, Volume 4 of Encylopedia of Global Environmental Change. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons, 534-536.

Glantz, M.H. (ed.), 2002: La Niña and Its Impacts: Facts and Speculation. Tokyo, Japan: United Nations University Press (in press).

Glantz, M.H. and D. Jamieson, 2000: Societal response to Hurricane Mitch and intra- versus intergenerational equity issues: Whose norms should apply? Special issue of Risk Analysis, 20(6), 869-882.

Glantz, M.H., Q. Ye, and *Q. Ge, 2001: China's western region development strategy and the urgent need to address creeping environmental problems. Arid Lands Newsletter, 49. University of Arizona Office of Arid Lands Studies.

Hornberger, G.M., J.D. Aber, J. Bahr, R.C. Bales, K. Bevin, E. Foufoula-Georgiou, G. Katul, *J.L. Kinter III, *R.D. Koster, D.P. Lettenmaier, D. McKnight, K.A. Miller, *K. Mitchell, *J.O. Roads, B.R. Scanlon, and *E. Smith, 2001: A Plan for a New Science Initiative on the Global Water Cycle. Washington, DC: US Global Change Research Program.

Hulme, M., R. Doherty, *T. Ngara, M. New, and D. Lister, 2001: African climate change: 1900-2100. Climate Research, 17, 145- 168.

Katz, R.W., 2001: Techniques for estimating uncertainty in climate change scenarios and impact studies. Climate Research (in press).

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Katz, R.W., 2002: Sir Gilbert Walker and a connection between El Niño and statistics. Statistical Science (in press).

McKelvey, R. and K.A. Miller, 2002: The Pacific salmon dispute: Rationalizing a dysfunctional joint venture. To appear in Sustaining North American Salmon: Perspectives Across Regions and Disciplines (in press).

Mearns, L.O. and M. Hulme (Coordinating Lead Authors), 2001: Climate scenario development. Chapter 13 in: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 739- 768.

Mearns, L.O., W. Easterling, C. Hays and D. Marx, 2001: Comparison of agricultural impacts of climate change calculated from high and low resolution climate change model scenarios. Part I: The uncertainty due to spatial scale. Climatic Change, 51(2), 131- 172.

Miller, K.A., 2001: Climate and water resources in the west: Past and future. Journal of the West, 40(3), 39-47.

Miller K.A., 2000: Pacific salmon fisheries: Climate, information and adaptation in a conflict-ridden context. Climatic Change, 45, 37-61.

Miller K.A., and M.W. Downton, 2002: Transboundary fisheries: Pacific salmon. In: T. Potter and B. Colman (eds.), Handbook of Weather, Climate and Water. New York: John Wiley and Sons (in press).

Miller K.A., G.R. Munro, T.L. McDorman, R. McKelvey and P. Tyedmers, 2001: The 1999 Pacific Salmon Agreement: A sustainable solution? Orono, ME: University of Maine, Canadian- American Public Policy Occasional Paper.

*Nobre, A.D., M. Keller, P.M. Crill, and R.C. Harriss, 2001: Short- term nitrous oxide profile dynamics and emissions response to water, nitrogen, and carbon additions in two tropical soils. Biol. & Fertil. Soils, 34, 363-373.

Pielke, Jr., R.A., and R.A. Pielke, Sr., 2002: Extreme events (Hurricanes). In: T. Potter and B. Colman (eds.), Handbook of Weather, Climate and Water. New York: John Wiley and Sons (in press).

Pielke, Jr., R.A., 2002: Weather extremes and climate impacts: A case study for the United States. In: I. Douglas (ed.), Causes and Consequences of Global Environmental Change, Volume 3 of Encyclopedia of Global Environmental Change. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons, 728-732.

Pielke, Jr., R.A., and R. Carbone, 2001: Weather forecasts, impacts and policy: An integrated perspective. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (in press).

Pielke, Jr., R.A. and M.W. Downton, 2000: Precipitation and damaging floods: Trends in the United States, 1932-1997. Journal of Climate, 13(20), 3625-3637.

Pielke, Jr., R.A., *J. Rubiera, *C. Landsea, *M. Molina, and R. Klein, 2001: Hurricane vulnerability in Latin America and the Caribbean: Global environmental change, Part B. Natural Hazards (in press).

*Reilly, J. et al., 2001: Agriculture: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change for the United States. US National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. Agriculture Section Assessment Team (L.O. Mearns, member), US Global Change Research Program. New York: Cambridge University Press.

Sanchez-Azofeifa, G.A., R.C. Harriss, and D.L. Skole, 2001: Deforestation in Costa Rica: A quantitative analysis using remote sensing imagery. Biotropica, 33(3), 378-384.

Serafin, R.J., *A.E. MacDonald, and R.L. Gall, 2002: Transition of weather research to operations: Opportunities and challenges. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 83(3), 377-392.

*Sontakke, N.A., D.J. Shea, R.A. Madden, and R.W. Katz, 2001: Potential for long-range regional precipitation prediction over India. Mausam, 52, 47-56.

*Stone, M.C., *R.H. Hotchkiss, *C.M. Hubbard, *T.A. Fontaine, L.O. Mearns, and *J.G. Arnold, 2001: Impacts of climate change on the water yield of the Missouri Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (in press).

Tsvetsinskaya, E., L.O. Mearns, and W. Easterling, 2001: Investigating the effect of seasonal plant growth and development in 3-dimensional atmospheric simulations. Part I: Simulation of surface fluxes over the growing season. Journal of Climate, 14, 692-709.

Tsvetsinskaya, E., L.O. Mearns, and W. Easterling, 2001: Investigating the effect of seasonal plant growth and development in 3-dimensional atmospheric simulations. Part II: Atmospheric response to crop growth and development. Journal of Climate, 14, 711-729.

Wilhelmi, O.V. and D.A. Wilhite, 2002: Assessing vulnerability to agricultural drought: A Nebraska case study. Natural Hazards (in press).

Wilhelmi, O.V., K.G. Hubbard and D.A. Wilhite, 2002: Spatial representation of agroclimatology in an integrated assessment of agricultural drought vulnerability. International Journal of Climatology (accepted for publication).

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Non-Refereed

Adeel, Z., and M.H. Glantz, 2001: A retrospective study of the 1997-98 El Niño: Identifying major challenges and opportunities. Work In Progress (United Nations University), 16(2), 6-9.

Downton, M. and R.A. Pielke, Jr., 2001: Politics and disaster declarations. Natural Hazards Observer, 25(4), 1-3.

Glantz, M.H., 2001: Have we learnt the lessons from the 1997-98 El Niño? (PDF file) Monthly Bulletin, 10(5), National Society of Mining, Petroleum, and Energy, Lima, Peru.

Glantz, M.H., 2000: Down with Earth Day 2001: Up with an Earth Year. Calypso Log, December, 19-21.

Katz, R.W., 2002: Do weather or climate variables and their impacts have heavy-tailed distributions? Preprints, American Meteorological Society, 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, Orlando, FL (in press).

Mearns, L.O., 2001: The issue of spatial scale of climate scenarios in regional climate change impacts analysis: Examples from agriculture. In: *S. Planton, *D. Hanson, *D. Viner and *M. Hoepffner (eds.), Proceedings of the ECLAT-2 Toulouse Workshop,

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held 25-27 October 2000 at Climatic Research Unit, UEA, Norwich, UK, 38-45.

Miller, K.A., 2001: Book review of “Due to the Weather: Ways the Elements Affect Our Lives,” by A. Resnick. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 82(8), 1759.

Miller, K.A., G. Munro, R. McKelvey, and P. Tyedmers, 2001: Climate, uncertainty and the Pacific Salmon Treaty: Insights on the harvest management game. (PDF file) In: Microbehavior and Macroresults: Proceedings of the Tenth Biennial Conference of the International Institute of Fishery Economics and Trade (IIFET), 10- 15 July 2000, Corvallis, OR. Compiled by R.S. Johnston and A.L.Shriver, IIFET, Corvallis, OR.

Pielke, Jr., R.A., and R. Harriss, 2000: Science policy and the NASA Triana Mission. Science, 288, 271.

Pielke, Jr., R.A., 2001: Room for doubt. Nature, 410, 151.

Pielke, Jr., R.A., 2001: Weather Research Needs of the Private Sector Workshop Report, U.S. Weather Research Program, Palm Springs. CA, December 2000.

Pielke, Jr., R.A. and B. Klein, 2001: Extreme Weather Sourcebook 2001 Edition, Environmental and Societal Impacts Group, NCAR, and the American Meteorological Society, January. (This site has moved to the Center for Science and Technology Policy Research, University of Colorado.)

Pielke, Jr., R.A., 2001: The Development of the U.S. Global Change Research Program: 1987 to 1994. A Policy Case Study Prepared for the 2001 American Meteorological Society Policy Symposium, June.

*Stewart, T.R., *R. Nath, and R.A. Pielke, Jr., 2001: Societal Value of Improved Precipitation Forecasts: A Case Study in Surface Transportation. Final report submitted to the Forecast Systems Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

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[ Director's Message ] [ Table of Contents ] [ Scientific Highlights ] [ Fundamental Research ] [ Enhancing Productivity and Resilience of Natural Resources ] [ Protection of Life and Property ] [ Outreach ] [ Publications ] [ Community Service ] [ Educational Activities ] [ Staff, Visitors and Collaborators ] [ NCAR ASR 2001 Home Page ] [ ESIG Home Page ]

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Community Service

[ Editorships of Peer-Reviewed Journals ] [ Scientific, Policy, or Educational Committees, Advisory Panels ]

Editorships of Peer-Reviewed Journals

Michael Glantz, Editorial Board, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences (2000-present).

Michael Glantz, Editorial Board, Global Change and Human Health (2000-present).

Michael Glantz, Editorial Board, Global Environmental Change (1990-present).

Michael Glantz, Editorial Board, Colorado Journal of International Environmental Law (1989-present).

Michael Glantz, Editorial Board, Problems of Desert Development, Journal of the Desert Institute, Turkmen Academy of Sciences (1994-present).

Michael Glantz, Editorial Board, Reports to the Nation on Our Changing Planet (1997-present).

Robert Harriss, Contributing Editor, Environment (1996-2001).

Robert Harriss, Associate Editor, Chemosphere-Global Change (1993-present).

Robert Harriss, Editorial Board, Journal of Earth System Science Education (2000-present).

Richard Katz, Editorial Board, Extremes: Statistical Theory and Applications in Science, Engineering and Economics (1997- present).

Richard Katz, Editorial Board, Climatic Change(1985-present).

Linda Mearns, Editorial Board, Climatic Change (1990-present).

Linda Mearns, Editorial Board, Climatic Research (1989-present).

Linda Mearns, Editorial Board, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (January 2001-present).

Roger Pielke, Jr., Editorial Board, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2001-present).

Roger Pielke, Jr., Editorial Board, Policy Sciences (2001-present).

Roger Pielke, Jr., Associate Editor, Natural Hazards Review, American Society of Civil Engineers (2001-present).

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Scientific, Policy, or Educational Committees, Advisory Panels, Boards

John Firor, Scientific Advisory Committee, Winslow Foundation (1991-present).

John Firor, Advisory Board, Natural Resources Law Center, University of Colorado (1998-present).

John Firor, Trustee, Environmental Defense (1974-present).

Michael Glantz, UNU (United Nations University) Project Coordinator, Socioeconomic Impacts of El Niño (1998-2002).

Michael Glantz, Member of Ad Hoc Review Panel for the International Research Institute (1999-present).

Michael Glantz, Nominated Expert in support of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (January 1997-present).

Michael Glantz, US Representative, Trade Convergence Climate Complex International Network (TC3Net). Also on Regional Coordinating Committee of TC3Net (January 1997-present).

Michael Glantz, Member of Environmental Literacy Council, a program focusing on environmental education K-12 (1998-present).

Michael Glantz, Member of the Scientific Advisory Panel, Southeast Asian Regional Committee for START (Global Change System for Analysis, Research and Training) (1996-present).

Michael Glantz, Member of the Scientific Advisory Committee (SAC)

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for the World Climate Impact Assessment and Response Strategies Programme (WCIRP) of the UN Environment Programme (1980- present).

Michael Glantz, Steering Committee, Center for Environmental Journalism, University of Colorado (1992-present).

Robert Harriss, Earth Data Analysis Center Advisory Board, U New Mexico (1998-present).

Robert Harriss, Houston Advanced Research Center, Policy Advisory Committee (1998-present).

Robert Harriss, NASA Stennis Space Center, Commercial Remote Sensing Program, Academic Advisory Board (1999-present).

Robert Harriss, National Research Council, Committee on Global Change Research (1999-2003).

Robert Harriss, Rio Grande Institute, Senior Fellow (1999-present).

Robert Harriss, Smithsonian Institution, Advisory Committee on Global change Exhibit Hall (1998-2001).

Robert Harriss, Chair, Project on Sustainable Management, Water Environment Research Foundation (1999-present).

Robert Harriss, Board of Trustees, University Space Research Association (1999-2001).

Robert Harriss, Chair, USWRP Science Implementation Planning Committee on Societal Impacts (2000-present).

Richard Katz, Regional Representative (North America), Board of Directors, International Environmetrics Society (1999-present).

Richard Katz, Member, NSF Proposal Review Panel on Biocomplexity in the Environment (2001).

Richard Katz, Member, American Meteorological Society Committee on Probability and Statistics (2001-present).

Richard Katz, Member, Program Committee, American Meteorological Society 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences (2001-02).

Linda Mearns, Internal Oversight Committee of the Review of NCAR by the American Physics Society for Climate for Women Scientists at NCAR (2000-present).

Linda Mearns, National Academy of Sciences, NRC Panel on Global Water and Energy Cycle (2000-2002).

Linda Mearns, Proposal Review Panel, Canadian Climate Change Action Fund, Sectoral Climate Change Scenarios for Canada (2000- present).

Linda Mearns, Member, NIGEC National Office Committee on Integrated Assessment (1999-present).

Linda Mearns, Member, AMS Committee on the Status of the Bulletin of the AMS (1999-present).

Linda Mearns, Member, Geophysical Statistics Project Internal Advisory Committee, NCAR (1998-present).

Linda Mearns, Member, National Agricultural Sector Team, US National Assessment (1998-present).

Linda Mearns, Member, Climate Change Scenarios Writing Team, US National Assessment (1998-present).

Linda Mearns, Member, Regional Assessment Teams for the Southwest, and Rocky Mountain Basin and Range Regions (1998- present).

Linda Mearns, Member, Land Surface Working Group, Climate System Modeling Project, NCAR (1996-present).

Linda Mearns, Member, IPCC Task Force on Climate Change Scenarios (1996-present).

Kathleen Miller, Lead Author, IPCC Working Group II Third Assessment Report (Chapter 15, North America) (1999-present).

Kathleen Miller, Member, Water Cycle Study Group, US Global Change Research Program (1999-present).

Kathleen Miller, Member, Steering Committee for Southwest Regional Assessment for the US National Assessment (1999- present).

Kathleen Miller, Member, National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council Panel on the Human Dimensions of Seasonal-to- Interannual Climate Variability (1997-present).

Kathleen Miller, Member, Steering Committee for the Southwest Region of the US National Assessment Team (1996-present).

Kathleen Miller, Member, Oversight Committee, National Research Council Assessment of Future Roles, Challenges and Opportunities for the U.S. Geological Survey (1996-present).

Roger Pielke, Jr., Member, Board of Directors, WeatherData, Inc. (2001-present).

Roger Pielke, Jr., Member, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Academy of Sciences (1999-present).

Roger Pielke, Jr., Member, Climate and Global Change Review Panel, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (1998- present).

Roger Pielke, Jr., Member, US Weather Research Program,

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Weather Impacts and Use Assessment Committee (1998-present).

Roger Pielke, Jr., Member, Science Steering Committee, World Meteorological Organization World Weather Research Program (1998-present).

Roger Pielke, Jr., Member, Science Steering Committee, US Weather Research Program (1997-present).

Roger Pielke, Jr., Member, Task Committee on Mitigating Hydrological Disasters, American Society of Civil Engineers (1997- present).

Roger Pielke, Jr., Member, Committee on Societal Impacts, American Meteorological Society (1996-present).

Robert Serafin, Chair, Technical Advisory Committee on the NEXRAD Radar, advising the Federal Aviation Administration, the National Weather Service, and the Department of Defense on weather radar technology.

Robert Serafin, member of 3 National Research Council committees in Washington, DC: (1) Conflicts Arising from the Privatization of Environmental Data; (2) Space Science Board, and (3) Committee on the Next-Generation Radar System for the United States.

Olga Wilhelmi, leading the Geographic Information Systems (GIS) Initiative at NCAR (2000-present).

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[ Director's Message ] [ Table of Contents ] [ Scientific Highlights ] [ Fundamental Research ] [ Enhancing Productivity and Resilience of Natural Resources ] [ Protection of Life and Property ] [ Outreach ] [ Publications ] [ Community Service ] [ Educational Activities ] [ Staff, Visitors and Collaborators ] [ NCAR ASR 2001 Home Page ] [ ESIG Home Page ]

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Help

Educational Activities

[ Formal Teaching Arrangements ] [ Dissertation Committees ] [ Workshops and Colloquia ] [ Scientific or Technical Seminars ] [ Non-Technical, Popular Presentations ]

Formal Teaching Arrangements

Michael Glantz holds an appointment as Professor Adjoint, Center for Environmental Journalism, School of Journalism and Mass Communication, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado.

Michael Glantz holds an appointment as Adjunct Professor, Department of Philosophy, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado.

Michael Glantz holds an appointment as an Affiliate Professor, Bard Center for Environmental Policy, Bard College, Annandale-on Hudson, New York.

Michael Glantz holds an appointment as Adjunct Professor, Columbia Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, New York.

Linda Mearns holds an appointment as Graduate Faculty Member, Department of Agricultural Meteorology, School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, Nebraska.

Linda Mearns acts as external reviewer of tenure applications, Department of Geography, North Carolina State University, Charlotte, North Carolina.

Linda Mearns, Graduate Faculty Member, Department of Agricultural Meteorology, School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, Nebraska.

Kathleen Miller holds an appointment as Faculty Affiliate, Colorado State University, Department of Earth Resources, Fort Collins, Colorado.

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Dissertation Committees

Michael Glantz, Thesis Advisor, Ph.D. thesis, Kenneth Broad, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York; "Climate, Culture, and Peruvian Fisheries: The El Niño of 1997-98."

Michael Glantz, Thesis Advisor, Ph.D. thesis, Dagmar Budykova, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada, "El Niño and the Southern Oscillation: Surface Air Temperature Implications for Western Canada."

Linda Mearns, Ph.D. Committee (as international member) of B. Trewin, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia, Summer 2001.

Kathleen Miller, Thesis Advisor, Ph.D. thesis, Arlie Huffman, Department of Earth Resources, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado; "Climate Change and Water Resources in the Upper Colorado Basin."

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Workshops and Colloquia

Michael Glantz convened a "Climate, Ethics, and Equity" Planning Meeting, 22-23 March 2001 in San Juan, Puerto Rico. 15 people attended.

Linda Mearns convened a workshop on "Regional Climate Research: Needs and Opportunities" on 2-4 April 2001 in Boulder, Colorado. Organizers were; Ruby Leung (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory), Linda Mearns (National Center for Atmospheric Research) Filippo Giorgi (Abdus Salam Institute), and Robert Silby (King's College, London). 68 people attended.

Roger Pielke, Jr. convened a workshop on "Risk-Benefit Assessment of Observing System Decision Alternatives" on 18-19 June 2001 in Boulder, Colorado. 26 people attended.

Robert Harriss and Steven Wolfsy (Harvard U) convened a workshop on the "North American Carbon Program" on 5-7 September 2001 in Boulder, Colorado. 76 people attended.

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Scientific or Technical Seminars

Mary Downton, Jennifer (Zoe) Bernard-Miller, and Roger Pielke, Jr. gave a presentation at the 26th Annual Hazards Research and Applications Workshop, Boulder, Colorado, 15-18 July 2001; "National Weather Service Damage Data: The Last Word on Historical Flood Losses?"

Michael Glantz gave two presentations at the Extreme Climate Events Program, Asian Disaster Preparedness Center, Bangkok, Thailand, 5-6 October 2000; "Retailing Climate Forecasts to Meet Users' Needs" and "Climate Affairs Programs."

Michael Glantz gave a Plenary Lecture at the Seminar on Global Change: Biophysical and Socio-Economic Impact, Aveiro, Portugal, 31 October 2000; "Rates and Processes of Environmental Change: A Social Perspective."

Michael Glantz gave a presentation at the Annual Meeting of the American Anthropological Association in San Francisco, California, 18 November 2000; "The Human Dimensions of Global Change: A Mandate for Anthropological Engagement."

Michael Glantz presented an Invited Lecture at the UNEP Governing Council and Global Ministerial Environment Forum, Nairobi, Kenya, 9 February 2001; "Environmental Vulnerability of Natural and Man- Made Disasters."

Michael Glantz gave a Keynote Lecture at the Training Institute on Climate and Society in the Asia-Pacific Region, Bangkok, Thailand, 15 February 2001; "Reducing the Impact of Environmental Emergencies: The Case of the 1997-98 El Niño"

Michael Glantz presented the Scharf Lecture at Gettysburg College, Gettysburg, Pennsylvania, 4 April 2001; "Climate Affairs: A Notion Whose Time Has Come."

Michael Glantz was invited speaker at a seminar on Ecological Health: A New Perspective, Consultative Group on Biological Diversity, Washington, D.C., 17 April 2001; "Climate Change and Threats to Health."

Michael Glantz was invited speaker at a Workshop on Climate Variability, Climate Change, and Water Resources Management for the Third World Water Forum, United Nations University, Tokyo, Japan, 8 June 2001; "El Niño, La Niña, and Water Resources."

Richard W. Katz, Eighth International Meeting on Statistical Climatology, Luneburg, Germany 12-16 March 2001; "Statistical Downscaling of Climate Extremes."

Richard W. Katz, Meeting on THORPEX Research and Science Objectives, Monterey, California, 26-27 April 2001; "Methods for Assessing Value of Weather Forecasts."

Richard W. Katz, International Environmetrics Society Conference on Environmetrics for Decision Making, Portland, Oregon, 13-17 August 2001; "Extreme Events and Climate Change."

Kathleen Miller presented a paper at the Joint University of British Columbia/University of Washington Conference on Rethinking the Line: The Canada United States Border, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, 24 October 2000; "Climate, Uncertainty, and the Pacific Salmon Treaty: Insights on the Harvest Management Game."

Kathleen Miller gave a presentation to the Institute for Behavioral Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, 24 September 2001; "The 1999 Pacific Salmon Agreement: A Sustainable Solution to the Management Game?"

Linda Mearns gave a presentation at the ECLAT-2 Workshop on Applying Climate Scenarios for Regional Studies, with Particular Reference to the Mediterranean, Toulouse, France, 25-27 October 2000, "The Issue of Spatial Scale of Climate Scenarios in Regional Climate Change Impacts Analysis: Examples from Agriculture."

Linda Mearns gave a presentation at the Uncertainty of Spatial Scale in Impacts Assessments workshop, Quebec City, Quebec, Canada, 3 November 2000; "Methods and Techniques for Constructing Regional Climate Scenarios."

Linda Mearns gave a presentation at the Meeting of the Agronomy Society of America, Minneapolis, Minneapolis, 5-9 November 2000; "The Issue of Spatial Scale in Integrated Assessments: An Example from Agriculture in the Southeastern U.S."

Linda Mearns gave a presentation at the American Geophysical Union Special Session on Uncertainty, San Francisco, California, 15-19 December 2000; "Uncertainty in Climate Scenarios."

Linda Mearns gave a presentation at a joint United States-China Meeting on Climate Impacts, Shanghai, China, January 2001; "United States Agricultural Assessment."

Linda Mearns gave a presentation at the National Science Foundation/Department of Energy Workshop on Regional Climate Research, Boulder, Colorado, 2-4 April 2001; "The Uncertainty of Spatial Scale of Scenarios in Climate Impacts Assessments."

Linda Mearns gave a presentation at the Regional Climate Models Workshop on Precipitation Extremes, Boulder, Colorado, 5 April 2001; "The Reproduction of Extreme Precipitation Events."

Linda Mearns gave a presentation at the Regional Climate Models Workshop on Precipitation Extremes, Boulder, Colorado, 6 April

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2001; "Projections of Changes in Extreme Precipitation Events."

Linda Mearns gave a presentation at the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Conference on Climate Variability and Land-Surface Processes: Physical Interactions and Regional Impacts, Trieste, Italy, 11-14 June 2001; "Impact of Climate Change on Crops and Coupling Crop Growth into Climate Models: Points of Contact."

Linda Mearns gave a presentation at the Electromagnetic Field/Force Workshop on Climate Change Impacts and Integrated Assessments, Snowmass, Colorado, 30 July 2001; "The Effect of Agricultural Adaptation on the Spatial Scale Effect of Climate Scenario Resolution in Integrated Assessments."

Linda Mearns gave a presentation at the Electromagnetic Field/Force Workshop on Climate Change Impacts and Integrated Assessments, Snowmass, Colorado, 3 August 2001; "The Issue of Spatial Scale of Climate Scenarios in Integrated Assessments: An Example of Agriculture in the Southeastern United States."

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Non-Technical, Popular Presentations

Michael Glantz, Boulder Public Library, Boulder, Colorado; 10 January 2001; "Climate Affairs."

Michael Glantz, talk to science teachers at Casey Jr. Middle School, Boulder, Colorado, 27 February 2001; "Climate Affairs."

Michael Glantz, live radio interview, Jim Lenz News Show, WQUB, Quincy, Illinois (NPR affiliate), 28 February 2001; "Currents of Change: El Niño and La Niña Impacts on Climate and Society."

Michael Glantz, talk at the Denver Museum of Nature & Science, Denver, Colorado, 1 March 2001; "El Niño and La Niña Impacts."

Michael Glantz, live radio interview, The Environment Show, from Boulder, Colorado, 26 March 2001; on carbon dioxide emissions from power plants.

Michael Glantz, live radio interview, WBAA, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana (by phone from Boulder, Colorado), 27 March 2001; "El Niño and La Niña Impacts."

Michael Glantz, live radio interview, Scott Paulsen News Show, WBGG in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, 4 April 2001; "El Niño and Global Warming."

Michael Glantz, talk to SOARS students, Boulder, Colorado, 5 July 2001; "Climate Affairs."

Michael Glantz, talk at Brown Bag Series, Institute of African Studies, Columbia University, New York, New York, 21 September 2001; "Currents of Change: Impact of Weather on Politics and Society in Africa."

John Firor gave a presentation to Coal Creek Rotary Club, Golden, Colorado, 11 January 2001.

John Firor gave a presentation to Advisory Board, Rocky Mountain Advisory Board, Environmental Defense, Denver, Colorado, 3 February 2001.

John Firor gave a presentation to Longmont Senior Center, Longmont, Colorado, 6 April 2001.

John Firor gave a presentation to Society of Architects, NCAR, Boulder, Colorado, 19 May 2001.

John Firor gave a presentation to Denver Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce, Denver, Colorado, 22 May 2001.

John Firor gave a presentation to the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry, 14th Annual Conference on Green Chemistry and Biotech at National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, 11 June 2001.

John Firor gave a presentation to Western Management Development Center of United States Office of Personnel Management to Mid-level Managers in the Federal System, Denver, Colorado, 26 September 2001.

Linda Mearns gave a presentation to National Science Foundation Research, Experiences for Undergraduate Students, NCAR, Boulder, Colorado, July 2001; "Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change process - An Insider's Perspective."

Linda Mearns gave a presentation at Boulder Town Meeting on Science, Rep. Mark Udall presiding, NCAR, Boulder, Colorado, August 2001; "Climate Change Research."

Robert Serafin was an invited speaker at Aquila Energy, Denver, Colorado, 14 February 2001; "Applications and Relevance of Weather and Climate Knowledge to the Energy Industry."

Robert Serafin gave a lecture to the American Meteorological Society's Colloquium, Boston, Massachusetts, 6 June 2001; "Public Policy."

Robert Serafin was an invited speaker at the 25th Anniversary of the ETC in Zurich, Switzerland, in commemoration of the research of the climate and atmospheric physics department. He made a presentation on 18 June 2001.

Robert Serafin was a guest speaker at Radar Meteorology Conference, American Meteorological Society in Munich, Germany,

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19 July 2001. He made two presentations: "Evaluation and Application of Radar Meteorology," and a tribute to the career of Professor Roger L'Hermitte.

Robert Serafin gave a lecture to the Financial Times (Energy Section), Providence, Rhode Island, 15 August 2001; "Applications and Relevance of Weather and Climate Knowledge to the Energy Industry."

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[ Director's Message ] [ Table of Contents ] [ Scientific Highlights ] [ Fundamental Research ] [ Enhancing Productivity and Resilience of Natural Resources ] [ Protection of Life and Property ] [ Outreach ] [ Publications ] [ Community Service ] [ Educational Activities ] [ Staff, Visitors and Collaborators ] [ NCAR ASR 2001 Home Page ] [ ESIG Home Page ]

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Staff, Visitors and Collaborators

[ Staff ] [ ASP Postdoctoral Fellows ] [ Visitors and Collaborators ]

Staff

Robert Harriss (Director)

Tanya Beck (80%, to 5/4/01) Mary Downton (80%) John Firor (NCAR Director Emeritus) Michael Glantz Victoria Holzhauer Janet Hopper (60%) Richard Katz Roberta Klein (to 7/13/01) Larry McDaniel Shannon McNeeley (Casual, from 11/20/00) Linda Mearns Kathleen Miller Anne Oman (from 5/1/01) Jennifer Oxelson Roger Pielke, Jr. (to 7/21/01) Jean Renz (80%) Robert Serafin (NCAR Director Emeritus) D. Jan Stewart Qian Ye (Casual, from 9/4/01)

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ASP Postdoctoral Fellows

Rebecca Morss (50% ESIG, from 1/1/01) Kathleen Purvis (50% ESIG, to 7/1/01) Olga Wilhelmi

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Visitors and Collaborators

Dates refer to a visitor's stay at NCAR during FY01. No dates are given for collaborators who did not visit NCAR.

Christopher Adams, Colorado State University, Institute for Research, Fort Collins, Colorado, 18-19 June 2001; Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Workshop.

Richard Adams, Oregon State University, Department of Agriculture and Resource Economics, Corvallis, Oregon, 22-24 May 2001; Crop Production and Modeling in the Southeast United States.

Zafar Adeel, United Nations University, Tokyo, Japan; Climate Affairs; La Nina Manuscript; Reducing the Impact of Environmental Emergencies Through Early Warning and Preparedness.

Robert Adler, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, 18-19 June 2001; Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Workshop.

Raymond W. Arritt, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Research.

Allan Auclair, Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, California; Climate Variability and Forest Dieback in Northeast United States.

Susan Avery, University of Colorado, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, Colorado, 18-19 June 2001; Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Workshop.

Roni Avissar, Rutgers University-Cook College, Environmental Sciences Department, New Brunswick, New Jersey, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

David C. Bader, United States Department of Energy, Germantown, Maryland, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Ferdinand Baer, University of Maryland, Department of Meteorology, College Park, Maryland, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Andras Bardossy, Universitat Stuttgart, Institut fur Wasserbau, Stuttgart, Germany, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Research.

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Steve Barlow, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, 18-19 June 2001; Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Workshop.

Tim P. Barnett, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, Climate Research Division, La Jolla, California, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Research.

Joseph Barr, Pacific Emergency Management Associates Ltd., Ainslie, Australia; Reducing the Impact of Environmental Emergencies Through Early Warning Preparedness.

Bryson C. Bates, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, Land and Water, Wembley, Australia, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Lennart Bengtsson, Max Planck Institute fur Meteorologie, Bundesstrasse Department, Hamburg, Germany, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Terrence Bensel, Allegheny College, Department of Environmental Science, Meadville, Pennsylvania, 30 August to 30 September 2001; Weather, Energy and El Nino Southern Oscillation Impacts in The Philippines.

Susan Bergerman, Columbia University, Institute for Latin American Studies, New York, New York, 25 May 2001; Climate Affairs.

Kenneth Boote, Agronomy Department, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida; Methods and Models of Integrated Assessment.

Joao-Paulo Borges-Coelho, Departamento de Historia, Universidade Eduardo, Maputo, Mozambique; Reducing the Impact of Environmental Emergencies Through Early Warning.

Michael G. Bosilovich, NASA/Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres, Data Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, Maryland, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Adam Braddock, University of Chicago, Philosophy Department, Chicago, Illinois, 9 July to 4 August 2001; Transmission of Malaria in Climate Change.

Kenneth Broad, International Research Institute, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York; El Nino Preparedness Country Studies: Reducing the Impact of Environmental Emergencies Through Early Warning and Preparedness.

Andy Brown, University of Puerto Rico at Mayaguez, Department of Humanities, Mayaguez, Puerto Rico, 21-24 March 2001; Climate, Ethics and Equity.

Ronald Brunner, Department of Political Science, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, Climate Variability of the Alaskan North Slope Coastal Region: Observations, Simulations, and Integrated Assessment.

Robert Bullard, Clark Atlanta University, Atlanta, Georgia, 22-27 March 2001; Climate, Ethics and Equity.

Gregory Carbone, University of South Carolina, Department of Geography, Columbia, South Carolina, 22-24 May 2001 and 10-20 July 2001; Crop Production and Modeling in the Southeast United States.

Dan Cayan, University of California, San Diego, California; Regional Assessment: Rocky Mountain and Great Basin Region.

Dan Cayan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Climate Research Division, La Jolla, California, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Research.

Shyh-chin Chen, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Climate Research Division, La Jolla, California, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Jens Hesselbjerg-Christensen, Danish Meteorological Institute, Danish Climate Centre, Copenhagen, Denmark, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Pilar Cornejo-Grunauer, Escuela Superior Politecnica del Litoral, Campus Prosperina, Guayaquil, Ecuador; Reducing the Impact of Environmental Emergencies Through Early Warning and Preparedness.

Michael Coughlan, Climate Activities Program, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland; Reducing the Impact of Environmental Emergencies Through Early Warning and Preparedness.

David Crocker, Maryland School of Public Affairs, College Park, Maryland, 21-24 March 2001; Climate, Ethics and Equity.

Michael Crow, Columbia University, New York City; Climate Affairs Project.

Ulrich Cubasch, Max Planck Institute fur Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Alison Cullen, Daniel J. Evans School of Public Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, 22 September 2000 to 1 May 2001; Risk and Exposure Analysis, Uncertainty, Value of Information.

Judith A. Curry, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado; Climate Variability of the Alaskan North Slope Coastal Region: Observations, Simulations, and Integrated Assessment.

Roy Darwin, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Washington, D.C.; United States Assessment, National Agriculture Sector.

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Ethan Decker, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, 20 October 2000; Urban Metabolism.

Michel Deque, Mateo France, Toulouse, Cedex, France, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Michael D. Dettinger, United States Geological Survey, San Diego, California, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Ruth Doherty, University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Studies, Norwich, United Kingdom, 1 October 2000-30 September 2001; Crop Modeling and Production in Southeastern United States and China.

Maria Concepción Donoso, Centro del Agua del Tropico Humedo para America Latina y el Caribe, Panama City, Panama; Reducing the Impact of Environmental Emergencies Through Early Warning and Preparedness.

Richard Doviak, National Severe Storms Laboratory, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma; Remote Sensing, Signal Processing.

Leonard M. Druyan, Columbia University, Center For Climate Systems Research, NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

David Easterling, National Climate Data Center, Climate Archives and Analysis Branch, Asheville, North Carolina, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

William Easterling, Pennsylvania State University, Geography Department, University Park, Pennsylvania, 22-24 May 2001; Crop Production and Modeling in the Southeast United States.

Scott Elliott, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, 20 October 2000; Urban Metabolism.

Jerry Elwood, United States Department of Energy, Germantown, Maryland, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Benjamin Felzer, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office of Global Programs, Silver Spring, Maryland, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Mike Fennesy, Center for Ocean-Land Atmospheric Studies, Calverton, Maryland, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Robert Figueroa, Colgate University, Hamilton, New York, 21-25 March 2001; Climate, Ethics and Equity Workshop.

Michael Fox-Rabinovitz, University of Maryland, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, Maryland, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Michael Freilich, Oregon State University, College of Oceanography and Atmospheric Studies, Corvallis, Oregon, 18-19 June 2001; Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Workshop.

John Fyfe, Canadian Centre for Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada; Regional Assessment: Rocky Mountain and Great Basin Region.

Wei Gao, Colorado State University, Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Fort Collins, Colorado, 1 January to 30 June 2001; China as an Evolving Metro-Agro-Plex; Reducing the Impact of Environmental Emergencies Through Early Warning and Preparedness.

W. Lawrence Gates, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Asher Ghertner, Colby College, Chemistry Department, Waterville, Maine, 18 June to 30 September 2001; Global Cities-Global Change.

Arjan Gijsman, Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida; Methods and Models for Integrated Assessment.

Lewis Gilbert, Office of Strategic Initiatives, Columbia University, New York, New York; Extreme Events.

Filippo Giorgi, The Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics, Physics of Weather and Climate Department, Trieste, Italy, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Rene Gommes, United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome Italy; Hotspots Project.

Anne Grambsch, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C., 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Lori Gruen, Wesleyan University, Department of Philosophy, Middleton, Connecticut, 21-24 March 2001; Climate, Ethics and Equity Workshop.

William J. Gutowski, Iowa State University, Department of Philosophy, Ames, Iowa, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Timothy C. Haas, School of Business Administration, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Wisconsin; Methods and Models for Integrated Assessment.

Chuck Hakkarinen, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, California, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

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Michael J. Hall, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office of Global Programs, Silver Spring, Maryland, 21-24 March 2001; Climate, Ethics and Equity Workshop.

James W. Hansen, International Research Institute for Climate Predictions, Palisades, New York, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Leslie Harroun, Consultative Group on Biological Diversity, San Francisco, California; Ecological Health.

Jeff Hawkins, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California, 18- 19 June 2001; Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Workshop.

L. Hay, United States Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado; Climate Scenario Development.

John Hayes, Salem State College, Department of Geography, Salem, Washington, 11-17 November 2000; Southeast Climate Variability and Crop Production.

Bruce D. Hewitson, University of Cape Town, Department of Environmental and Geographical Science, Rondebosch, South Africa, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Todd Hinkley, United States Geological Survey, Denver Colorado; Regional Assessment: Rocky Mountain and Great Basin Region; Southwest Regional Assessment.

Marty Hoerling, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office of Aerospace Research/CDC-RCDC, Boulder, Colorado, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Steve Hollinger, University of Illinois, Champaign, Illinois; United States Assessment, National Agriculture Sector.

William Hooke, American Meteorological Society, Boston, Massachusetts; Weather, Climate and Society.

Ekram Hossain, Bangladesh Public Administration Training Centre, Savar, Dhaka, Bangladesh; Reducing the Impact of Environmental Emergencies Through Early Warning and Preparedness.

Steve Hostetler, United States Geological Survey, Corvallis, Oregon, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Mike Hulme, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; Uncertainty in Climate Change; United States Assessment, National Agriculture Sector; The Development and Application of Scenarios in Climate Change Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment; Regional Climate Information: Evaluation and Projections; Climate Scenario Development.

Daniela M. Jacob, Max Planck Institute fur Meteorologie Hamburg, Germany, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Shrikant Jagtap, Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida; Methods and Models for Integrated Assessment.

Dale Jamieson, University Center for Human Values, Princeton, New Jersey, 21-25 March 2001; Climate, Ethics and Equity; Reducing the Impact of Environmental Emergencies Through Early Warning and Preparedness.

Sanny R. Jegillos, Asia Operations, Asia Pacific Disaster Management Centre, Manila, The Philippines; Reducing the Impact of Environmental Emergencies Through Early Warning and Preparedness.

Ming Ji, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Environmental Modeling Center, Camp Springs, Maryland, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Jeffrey R. Jones, Laboratorio SIG (Global Information Systems), Tropical Agronomic Centre for Research and Education, Turrialba, Costa Rica; Reducing the Impact of Environmental Emergencies Through Early Warning and Preparedness.

Jim Jones, Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida; Methods and Models for Integrated Assessment.

Richard Jones, Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research, Bracknell, United Kingdom, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Research, Evaluation and Projections.

Atu Kaloumaira, South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission, Suva, Fiji; Reducing the Impact of Environmental Emergencies Through Early Warning and Preparedness.

Sally Kane, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office of Global Programs, Silver Spring, Maryland, 2-10 November 2000; Policy Aspects of Climate.

Lakshmi Kantha, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado; Climate Variability of the Alaskan North Slope Coastal Region: Observations, Simulations, and Integrated Assessment.

Frederick K. Karanja, Department of Meteorology, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya; Reducing the Impact of Environmental Emergencies Through Early Warning and Preparedness.

Hisashi Kato, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Tokyo, Japan, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Ilan Kelman, Cambridge Review of International Affairs, Cambridge University, Cambridge, United Kingdom; Flashpoints Project.

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Jinwon Kim, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Earth Sciences Division, Berkeley, California, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

William Kininmonth, Australasian Climate Research, Kew, Australia; Reducing the Impact of Environmental Emergencies Through Early Warning and Preparedness.

Kamal Kishore, Asian Disaster Preparedness Center, Bangkok, Thailand; Reducing the Impact of Environmental Emergencies Through Early Warning and Preparedness.

Peter A. Knoop, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, 18-20 October 2000; Methods and Models of Integrated Assessment.

Thomas R. Knutson, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab, Princeton, New Jersey, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Grace Koshida, Meteorological Service of Canada, Adaptation and Impacts Research Group, Downsview, Ontario, Canada, 18-19 July 2001; Extreme Weather Events: Societal Value of Weather.

David Krantz, Columbia University, New York, New York; Climate Affairs.

Tiruvalem Krishnamurti, Florida State University, Meteorology Department, Tallahassee, Florida, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Christian Kummerow, Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Fort Collins, Colorado, 18-19 June 2001; Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Workshop.

Kenneth E. Kunkel, Illinois State Water Survey, Atmospheric Environmental Section, Champaign, Illinois, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

M. Lal, Center for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, New Delhi, India; Climate Scenario Development.

Upmanu Lall, Utah State University, Logan, Utah; Regional Assessment, Rocky Mountain and Great Basin Region.

Rene Laprise, Subtropical Stratocumulus, Terre-Atmosphere Universite de Quebec a Montreal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Rik Leemans, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands; the Development and Application of Scenarios in Climate Change Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment; Climate Scenario Development.

Dennis P. Lettenmaier, University of Washington, Department of Civil Engineering, Seattle, Washington, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Research, National Climate Modeling Workshop.

L. Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Atmospheric Science and Global Change Resource, Richland, Washington, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Research, National Climate Modeling Workshop.

Bo Lim, United Nations Development Programme-Global Environmental Facility, New York, New York, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Gary M. Littlejohn, University of Bradford, Bradford, West Yorkshire, United Kingdom; Reducing the Impact of Environmental Emergencies Through Early Warning and Preparedness.

Russane Low, Limnological Research Center, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota; Human Dimensions of Global Change.

Amanda Lynch, University of Colorado, PAOS/Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences, Boulder, Colorado; Climate Variability of the Alaskan North Slope Coastal Region: Observations, Simulations, and Integrated Assessment.

Molly MacCauley, Research for the Future, Washington, D.C., 18-19 June 2001; Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Workshop.

Michael C. MacCracken, United States Global Change Research Program, National Assessment Coordination Office, Washington, D.C., 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Bennert Machenhauer, Danish Meteorological Institute, Climate Research Division, Copenhagen, Denmark, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Thomas Magner, Office of Earth Science, Washington, D.C., 18-19 June 2001; Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Workshop.

Leslie Malone, World Climate Data and Monitoring Program, World Meteorological Organization Secretariat, Geneva, Switzerland; Climate of the Twentieth Century Project.

Richard Malow, Washington, D.C., 18-19 June 2001; Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Workshop.

Frank Marks, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Miami, Florida, 18-19 June 2001; Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission.

James A. Maslanik, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado; Climate Variability of the Alaskan North Slope Coastal Region: Observations, Simulations, and Integrated Assessment.

Bruce McCarl, Texas A & M University, College Station, Texas, 22- 24 May 2001; Crop Production and Modeling in the Southeast United States.

John L. McGregor, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial

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Research Organization, Atmospheric Research, Victoria, Australia, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Robert McKelvey, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana, 19-26 March 2001; Pacific Salmon Treaty Project.

Ronald McPherson, American Meteorological Society, Boston, Massachusetts; Weather Forecasting.

Jennifer (Zoe) Barnard Miller, University of Colorado, Political Science Department, Boulder, Colorado, 1 October 2000 to 21 September 2001; Damaging Floods and Precipitation.

Vicki Moran, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, 18-19 June 2001; Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Workshop.

Gordon Munro, University of British Columbia, Economics Department, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, 6-8 August 2001; Pacific Salmon Treaty Project.

James Murphy, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, United Kingdom Meteorological Office, Bracknell, United Kingdom, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Mary Fran Myers, University of Colorado, Natural Hazards Center, Boulder, Colorado, 18-19 June 2001; Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Workshop.

Mikiyasu Nakayama, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, Tokyo, Japan; Reducing the Impact of Environmental Emergencies Through Early Warning and Preparedness.

Lino Naranjo-Diaz, Centro Nacional del Clima, Instituto de Meteorologia, Havana, Cuba; El Nino Preparedness Country Studies, Reducing the Impact of Environmental Emergencies Through Early Warning and Preparedness.

Philippe Naveau, Institut Pierre Limon Laplace, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau, France; Climate Extremes and Climate Change.

Nguyen Huu Ninh, Centre for Research and Development, Hanoi, Vietnam; Reducing the Impact of Environmental Emergencies Through Early Warning and Preparedness.

Dennis Ojima, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado; Central Great Plains Climate Impacts; United States Assessment, National Agriculture Sector.

Timothy J. Osborn, University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, Norwich, United Kingdom, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Marc Parlange, The Johns Hopkins University, Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, Baltimore, Maryland, 12 August to 7 September 2001; Statistical Downscaling/Extreme Events.

Elder A. Paul, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan; United States Assessment, National Agriculture Sector.

William T. Pennell, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Atmospheric Science and Global Change Resource, Richland, Washington, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Research, Climate Impacts Assessment.

Al Peters, University of Nebraska, Center for Advanced Land Management Information Technologies, Lincoln, Nebraska, 22-24 May 2001; Crop Production and Modeling in the Southeast United States.

Roger A. Pielke Sr., Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Fort Collins, Colorado, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

A. B. Pittock, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, Melbourne, Australia; the Development and Application of Scenarios in Climate Change Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment.

Thomas Pogge, Columbia University, Philosophy Department, New York, New York, 21-24 March 2001; Climate, Ethics and Equity Workshop.

Carlo Pona, Agency for New Technologies, Energies and Environment, Rome, Italy; The Effect of Climate Change on Wheat Yields in Italy.

Balaji Rajagopalan, University of Colorado, Department of Civil Engineering, Boulder, Colorado; Characterizing and Modeling Variability of Hourly Precipitation.

Patricia Ramirez, Comite Regional de Recursos Hidraulicos del Istmo, San Jose, Costa Rica; Study of Peru, Kenya, and Costa Rica Responses to the 1997-1998 El Nino.

David Randall, Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Fort Collins, Colorado, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Kelly T. Redmond, Desert Research Institute, Western Regional Climate Center, Reno, Nevada, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Assessment: Rocky Mountain and Great Basin Region; Southwest Regional Assessment.

John Reilly, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts; United States Assessment, National Agriculture Sector.

Francis Richards, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, Maryland, 18-19 June 2001; Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Workshop. https://web.archive.org/web/20030328001926/http://www.esig.ucar.edu/asr01/[12/27/2016 1:58:32 PM] ESIG Annual Scientific Report 2001

Susan Jean Riha, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York; United States Assessment, National Agriculture Sector.

Stuart Robertson, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, 18-19 June 2001; Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Workshop.

Ramon Romero, National Autonomous University of Honduras, Tegucigalpa, Honduras, 21-24 March 2001; Climate, Ethics and Equity.

Norm Rosenberg, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Climate Impacts Assessment.

Cynthia Rosenzweig, NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York; United States Assessment, National Agriculture Sector.

Donald Rundquist, Center for Advanced Land Management, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, Nebraska, 22-24 May 2001; Southeast Agriculture Workshop.

Jose Salas, Colorado State University, Department of Civil Engineering, Fort Collins, Colorado; Characterizing and Modeling Variability of Hourly Precipitation.

Peter G. Schultz, National Academy of Science, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Fredrick Semazzi, North Carolina State University, Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Science, Raleigh, North Carolina, 2- 4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Anji Seth, International Research Institute for Climate Predictions, Climate Monitoring and Dissemination, Palisades, New York, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Eileen Shea, East West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii; Climate and Island Coastal Communities Workshop.

Alex de Sherbinin, Center for International Earth Science Information Network, Columbia University, Palisades, New York; Remote Sensing and International Treaties.

J. Smith, Stratus Consulting, Boulder, Colorado; Climate Scenario Development.

Richard L. Smith, University of North Carolina, Department of Statistics, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Clive Spash, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 20-24 March 2001; Climate, Ethics and Equity Workshop.

Kelly Sponberg, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office of Global Programs, Silver Spring, Maryland; Flashpoints.

William Sprigg, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona; Southwest Regional Assessment.

Tom Stohlgren, United States Geological Survey, Rocky Mountain Research Group, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, 29-30 July 2000, Climate Change Effects in the Rocky Mountains.

Sarah Streett, Colorado State University, Department of Statistics, Fort Collins, Colorado, 1 October 2000 to 30 September 2001; Crop Production and Modeling in the Southeast United States.

Yoshihiko Tahara, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Camp Springs, Maryland, 18-19 June 2001; Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Workshop.

Jonathan Takahashi, Carleton College, Chemistry Department, Northfield, Minnesota, 9 July 2001 to 4 August 2001; Transportation Issues in Developing Countries.

Elena Tsvetsinskaya, Department of Agricultural Meteorology, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, Nebraska, 1 October 2000-January 2001; Crop Modeling and Production in the Southeast United States.

Gregory J. Tripoli, University of Wisconsin, Science, Atmosphere, and Oceanic Sciences Department, Madison, Wisconsin, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

David Viner, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; Uncertainty in Climate Change.

Marta Vinocur, Universidad Nacional de R-Edo Cuarto, Rodoba, Argentina; Southeast United States Crop Modeling and Production.

Hans von Storch, University of Copenhagen, Department of Geophysics, Hamburg, Denmark, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Fred Wagner, Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan Utah, 29-30 July 2000; Climate Change Effects in the Rocky Mountains.

Elizabeth Walter-Shea, University of Nebraska, School of Natural Resource Sciences, Lincoln, Nebraska, 22-24 May 2001; Crop Production and Modeling in the Southeast United States.

Kirk Waters, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Charleston, South Carolina, 16 April to 22 June 2001; United States Weather Research Program, Implementation Plan Development.

Justin Wettstein, National Assessment Coordination Office, United States Global Change Research Program, Washington, D.C.; Forest Dieback in the Northeast United States.

Peter Whetton, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research

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Organization, Division of Atmospheric Research, Climate Impact Group, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Information: Evaluation and Projections.

Robert Wilby, King’s College-London, Department of Geography, London, United Kingdom, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

Glenn Willis, University of Washington, Philosophy Department, Seattle, Washington, 9 July 2001 to 4 August 2001; Relationship Between Science and Society on Global Warming.

Beverly Wright, Xavier University, New Orleans, Louisiana, 21-27 March 2001; Climate, Ethics and Equity Workshop.

Tsegay Wolde-Georgis, Embassy of Ethiopia, Washington, D.C.; Reducing the Impact of Environmental Emergencies Through Early Warning and Preparedness.

Qian Ye, Center for Development and Application of Atmospheric Sciences Research, Institute for Atmospheric Physics, Beijing, Republic of China, 1 November 2000 to 3 September 2001; El Nino Preparedness Country Studies, Reducing the Impact of Environmental Emergencies Through Early Warning and Preparedness.

Antonio Zapata-Velasco, Instituto de Estudios Peruanos, Lima, Peru; Reducing the Impact of Environmental Emergencies Through Early Warning Preparedness.

Igor Zonn, UNEPCOM, Moscow, Russia, 9-14 October 2000; Climate Affairs; Caspian and Aral Sea Issues.

Dusan Zrnic, National Severe Storms Laboratory, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma; Remote Sensing, Signal Processing.

Francis Zwiers, University of Canada, Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada, 2-4 April 2001; Regional Climate Modeling Workshop.

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[ Director's Message ] [ Table of Contents ] [ Scientific Highlights ] [ Fundamental Research ] [ Enhancing Productivity and Resilience of Natural Resources ] [ Protection of Life and Property ] [ Outreach ] [ Publications ] [ Community Service ] [ Educational Activities ] [ Staff, Visitors and Collaborators ] [ NCAR ASR 2001 Home Page ] [ ESIG Home Page ]

https://web.archive.org/web/20030328001926/http://www.esig.ucar.edu/asr01/[12/27/2016 1:58:32 PM] HAO ASR 2001

High Altitude Observatory Director's Message

The High Altitude Observatory (HAO) is committed to a long-term research mission to understand Solar and Solar-Terrestrial physics. We continue to target some of the toughest problems in these fields, such as the solar dynamo problem, the structure and evolution of solar surface magnetic fields, the flux eruption process and resulting coronal dynamics or the reaction of the Earth's upper atmosphere on solar storms.

In reviewing this Annual Scientific Report, the reader will find that HAO has made significant contributions in instrument development, observations, data services to the community, numerical simulations, and analytical theory, as it has done over the sixty- one years of its existence. We also continued our strong visitor program and have further strengthened our educational outreach.

After significant augmentations in FY00 of the HAO upper atmosphere research activities by Tim Killeen's group, this year has seen steady integration of the new research group into the overall HAO program. Clearly this process has already borne fruit, particularly in research on solar irradiance variability and its impact on the Earth's climate, with HAO researchers making new connections between recent measurements and implications of those on the Earth's upper atmosphere.

HAO has continued to enjoy great interest amongst young researchers who are seeking a position here. A special competition for entry level career scientist positions at NCAR resulted in two additional hires for HAO adding to our young and promising staff. With the end of this fiscal year, Andrew Skumanich, long-term Senior Scientist at HAO, decided to retire. We express our deep gratitude for his many years of outstanding service to HAO and NCAR and we feel fortunate that he will continue to be a mentor and contributor to HAO's science as an Emeritus. In recognition for his contributions to upper atmosphere physics, Art Richmond has been named a Fellow of the AGU.

HAO's multidimensional modeling of magnetohydrodynamical processes on the Sun and of upper atmosphere global circulations has intensified, challenging the available supercomputing at NCAR. Recent results bear many details to compare with observations, thereby helping to sort out ambiguities that come out of the inter-relations of observations. A particularly striking example is given in the 3-D modeling paper on the eruption of the twisted flux tubes quoted in the Significant Accomplishments.

Combining space-based observations from SOHO, Yohkoh and TRACE with HAO's ground- based data from Mauna Loa continues to produce important research results and ensures that HAO data are used by a broad community. These studies advocate for extending Mauna Loa observations in their daily coverage in the future if additional resources can be found.

The HAO Instrumentation Group is involved in a variety of new instrument developments that will push the boundary of forefront experimental research and solar and solar- terrestrial physics in ground-based and space-based observations in the near future. I

https://web.archive.org/web/20030430114252/http://www.hao.ucar.edu/public/asr/asr2001/[12/27/2016 1:58:57 PM] HAO ASR 2001

invite you to surf through the descriptions of these exciting projects in this year's Annual Scientific Report and the many other interesting and unique research activities described therein.

https://web.archive.org/web/20030430114252/http://www.hao.ucar.edu/public/asr/asr2001/[12/27/2016 1:58:57 PM] HAO ASR 2001: Significant Accomplishments

Significant Accomplishments

Mausumi Dikpati and Peter Gilman have found a solar dynamo model that clearly predicts the correct symmetry about the equator of the sun's magnetic field. It is the same type of "flux-transport" dynamo used in prior years by Dikpati and Paul Charbonneau to correctly simulate many features of the solar magnetic cycle, but with a new mechanism for generating poloidal field from toroidal field: the kinetic helicity of the flow perturbations arising from the instability of the observed differential rotation in the solar tachocline. As a result, toroidal and poloidal fields that are antisymmetric about the equator are selected in a full spherical shell simulation, in accordance with Hale's polarity law.

To understand the process of magnetic flux emergence on the Sun, Yuhong Fan of HAO has been carrying out 3D MHD simulations of the emergence of a twisted flux tube from the top layer of the solar convection zone into a model solar atmosphere and the corona (Fan 2001, ApJ, 554, L111). It is found that the non-linear development of the magnetic buoyancy instability (or Parker instability) can cause flux tubes entering the photosphere boundary to expand dynamically into the stably stratified solar atmosphere. Good agreement is found between the simulation results of the emergence of a left-hand-twisted, O shaped flux tube and the major observed features of a newly developing active region (NOAA 5617) studied by Strous et al. (1996, A&A v.306 p.947), including the distribution of vertical magnetic flux, the locations of sunspot formation, the large-scale organized shear flow pattern on the photosphere, and the orientation of the Ha arch-filament system.

https://web.archive.org/web/20030427121943/http://www.hao.ucar.edu/public/asr/asr2001/hilights.html[12/27/2016 1:59:38 PM] HAO ASR 2001: Significant Accomplishments

Click here for an animated movie.

Mei Zhang and B. C. Low, in a theoretical study of the reversal of the global coronal magnetic field taking place at the beginning of each solar cycle, have found a hydromagnetic explanation for the two observed dynamical types of solar coronal mass ejections, those that travel at above median speeds and those that gradually accelerate from initially low speeds. Their theory relates the two types of coronal mass ejections to an interplay between magnetic reconnection and mass expulsion in the different hydromagnetic environments represented by the normal and inverse canonical configurations of quiescent prominences.

Top Panel: Flux-rope expulsion in the inverse configuration in axisymmetric spherical geometry. Shown are the poloidal projections of field lines of a global axisymmetric magnetic field centered over an equatorial magnetic neutral line, with an azimuthal field component out of the plane of the drawings: (a) the initial state prior to eruption with a massive prominence sheet in the flux rope surrounded by dense coronal mass outside the flux rope; (b) the lift-off of the flux-rope due to mass-loss to the prominence, forming a current sheet behind the flux-rope; (c) further development after the flux rope expulsion with magnetic reconnection producing closed bipolar fields anchored to the atmospheric base, showing a pair of foot-point brightenings (FB) belonging to newly reconnected flux to correspond to the two-ribbon flare. This expulsion is expected to exhibit a gradual acceleration. Bottom Panel: Flux-rope expulsion in the normal configuration in the same spherical representation as in Figure 21 of the SAH section of the ASR: (a) the initial state prior to eruption; (b) the lift-off of the flux- rope due to mass-loss to the prominence, forming a current sheet ahead of the flux-rope; (c) further development with magnetic reconnection having removed the fields ahead of the flux rope to create the sling-shot field topology; a pair of foot-point brightenings (FB) belonging to newly reconnected flux corresponds to the two-ribbon flare. This expulsion is expected to have an initial impulsive acceleration.

In an ongoing project to study the self-organized critical (SOC) avalanche models for solar flares, Scott McIntosh (NASA-Goddard SFC) and Paul Charbonneau have examined the consequences of this model for observations of spatially and temporally resolved flares. They showed that the relationship between avalanche volume and area is a power law with index 1.41±0.04, distinct from the equivalent relationships characterizing geometrical models used in flare data analyses. Their computed fractal corrections to the logarithmic slope of the observationally inferred frequency distribution of flare-energy release, bring hitherto discrepant observational inferences into much better agreement. The resulting corrected power law index, of about -1.85, is tantalizingly close to, but still below, the critical value 2.0 above which Parker's conjecture of coronal heating by nanoflares is tenable in principle.

https://web.archive.org/web/20030427121943/http://www.hao.ucar.edu/public/asr/asr2001/hilights.html[12/27/2016 1:59:38 PM] HAO ASR 2001: Significant Accomplishments

Stan Solomon, Scott Bailey (Hampton University), and Tom Woods (University of Colorado) showed that measurements of solar soft X-rays in the 2-20 nm range made by the Student Nitric Oxide Explorer (SNOE) satellite are higher by a factor of 4-5 than previous best estimates, and that this higher irradiance solves long-standing problems in modeling ionospheric electron densities and photoelectron fluxes. This result also has important consequences for minor species chemistry, ion composition, and heating rates in the thermosphere/ionosphere, particularly in the 100-200 km region.

Ionospheric response to southward turning of the interplanetary magnetic field

Gang Lu, Tom Holzer, Dirk Lummerzheim (University of Alaska), Mike Ruohoniemi and Patrick Newell(both at Johns Hopkins University, APL), Peter Stauning (Danish Meteorological Institute), Oleg Troshichev (Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, Russia), Mitchell Brittnacher, and George Parks (both at the University of Washington) found clear evidence for a two-stage ionospheric response to southward turning of the interplanetary magnetic field, namely, a fast initial onset and a slow final reconfiguration. This finding reconciles conflicting earlier observations, which found either a fast or a slow response, and which supported differing theories about the nature of magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling. This work helps point the way to needed theoretical developments.

Table of Contents · Publications · Educational Activities · Community Service · HAO ASR Home

https://web.archive.org/web/20030427121943/http://www.hao.ucar.edu/public/asr/asr2001/hilights.html[12/27/2016 1:59:38 PM] HAO ASR 2001: Publications

Publications

Abbett, W.P., G.H. Fisher, and Y. Fan, 2001: The effects of rotation on the evolution of rising omega-loops in a stratified model convection zone. ApJ., 546, 1194.

Athay, R.G., 2001: The origin of spicules. Solar Phys., in press.

Ballatore, P.*, L. J. Lanzerotti*, G. Lu, and D. J. Knipp, 2000: Relationship between the northern hemisphere Joule heating and geomagnetic activity in the southern polar cap. J. Geophys. Res., 105, 27,167-27,177.

Boonsitiseth, A., R. M. Thorne, G. Lu, V. K. Jordanova, and M. F. Thomsen*, 2001: A semi-empirical equatorial mapping of AMIE convection electric potentials (MACEP) for the January 10 magnetic storm. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 12,903-12,917.

Breen, A.R., B.J. Thompson*, M. Kojima, D.A. Biesecker*, A. Canals, R.A. Fallows, J.A. Linker*, A.J. Lazarus, A.R. Lecinski, Z. Mikic*, P.J. Moran, and P.J.S. Williams, 2000: Measurements of the solar wind over a wide range of heliocentric distances--a comparison of results from the first three whole sun months. J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys., 62, 1527- 1543.

Brown, T.M., 2001: Transmission spectra as diagnostics of extrasolar giant planet atmospheres. ApJ., 553, 1006-1026.

Brown, T.M., D. Charbonneau*, R.L. Gilliand*, R.W. Noyes*, and A. Burrows, 2001: Hubble Space Telescope time-series photometry of the transiting planet of HD 209458. ApJ., 552, 699-709.

Charbonneau, P., 2001: Multiperiodicity, chaos and intermittency in a reduced model of the solar cycle. Solar Phys., 199, 385-404.

Charbonneau, P., and M. Dikpati, 2000: Stochastic fluctuations in a Babcock-Leighton model of the solar cycle. ApJ., 543, 1029-1043.

Charbonneau, P., and K.B. MacGregor, 2001: Magnetic fields in massive stars. I. Dynamo models. ApJ., 559, 1094-1107.

DeToma, G., and O. R. White, 2001: Differences in the sun's radiative output in cycles 22 and 23. ApJ., 549, L131-L134.

Dikpati, M., and P.A. Gilman, 2001: Analysis of hydrodynamic stability of solar tachocline latitudinal differential rotation using a shallow-water model. ApJ., 551, 536-564.

Dikpati, M., and P.A. Gilman, 2001: Flux-transport dynamos with alpha-effect from global instability of tachocline differential rotation; a solution for magnetic parity selection in the sun. ApJ., 559, 428-442.

Dikpati, M., and P.A. Gilman, 2001: Prolateness of the solar tachocline inferred from latitudinal force balance in an MHD shallow water model. ApJ., 552, 348-353.

Emonet, T., F. Moreno-Insertis*, and M.P. Rast, 2001: The zig-zag path of buoyant magnetic tubes and the generation of vorticity along their periphery. ApJ., 549, 1212-1220.

Fan, Y., 2001: Emergence of a twisted omega-tube into the solar atmosphere. ApJ., 554, L111-L114.

Fan, Y., 2001: Non-linear growth of the 3D undular instability of a horizontal magnetic layer and the formation of arching https://web.archive.org/web/20030427121545/http://www.hao.ucar.edu/public/asr/asr2001/publications.htm[12/27/2016 2:00:14 PM] HAO ASR 2001: Publications

flux tubes. ApJ., 546, 509.

Fesen, C.G., D.L. Hysell, J.W. Meriwether, M. Mendillo, B.G. Fejer, R.G. Roble, B.W. Reinisch, and M.A. Biondi, 2001: Modeling the low latitude atmosphere and ionosphere. J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys., in press.

Fong, Bryan, O. Hurricane*, and S. Cowley, 2001: Equilibrium and stability of prominence flux ropes. Solar Phys., 201, 93- 117.

Forbes, J.M., and M.E. Hagan, 2000: The diurnal Kelvin wave in the atmosphere of Mars: Toward an understanding of MGS accelerometer data. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 3563-3566.

Galand, M.*, and A.D. Richmond, 2001: Ionospheric electrical conductances produced by auroral proton precipitation. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 117-125.

Gilbert, H.R., T.E. Holzer, B.C. Low, and J.T. Burkepile, 2001: Observational interpretation of an active prominence on May 1,1999. ApJ., 549, 1221-1230.

Gilbert, H.R., E.C. Serex, T.E. Holzer, R.M. MacQueen, and P.S. McIntosh*, 2001: Narrow coronal mass ejections. ApJ., 550, 1093-1101.

Gilliland, R.L.*, T.M. Brown, P. Guhathakurta, A. Sarajedini, E.F. Milone, M.D. Albrow*, N.R. Baliber, H. Bruntt, A. Burrows, D. Charbonneau*, P. Choi, W.D. Cochran, P.D. Edmonds*, S. Frandsen, J.H. Howell, D.N.C. Lin, G.W. Marcy, M. Mayor*, D. Naef*, 2000: A lack of planets in 47 Tucanae from a Hubble Space telescope search. ApJ., 545, L47-L51.

Gilman, P.A., 2000: MHD "shallow water" equations for the solar tachocline. ApJ., 544, L79-L82.

Hagan, M.E., and R.G. Roble, 2001: Modeling diurnal tidal variability with the NCAR TIME-GCM. J. Geophys. Res., in press.

Hagan, M.E., R.G. Roble, and J. Hackney, 2001: Migrating thermospheric tides. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 12,739-12,752.

Hagan, M.E., R.G. Roble, C. Hartsough, J. Oberheide, and M. Jarisch, 2001: The dynamics of the middle atmosphere during CRISTA-2 as simulated by the NCAR TIME-GCM. J. Geophys. Res., in press.

Hubert, B.*, J.-C. Gerard*, T. L. Killeen, Q. Wu, V. Bisikalo* and V.I. Shematovich*, 2001: Observation of anomalous temperatures in the daytime O(1D) 6300 Å thermospheric emission: a possible signature of non-thermal atoms. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 12,753-12,764.

Immel, T.J., G. Crowley, J.D. Craven, and R.G. Roble, 2001: Dayside enhancements of thermospheric O/N2 following magnetic storm onset. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 15,471.

Judge, P. G., T. D. Tarbell*, and K. Wilhelm*, 2001: A study of chromospheric oscillations using the SOHO and TRACE spacecraft. ApJ., 554, 424-444.

Kaufmann, M., O.A. Gusev, K.U. Grossmann, R.G. Roble, M.E. Hagan, C. Hartsough, and A.A. Kutepov, 2001: The vertical and horizontal distribution of CO2 densities in the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere as measured by CRISTA. J. Geophys. Res., in press.

Kim, E.-J., and B. Dubrulle*, 2001: Turbulent transport and equilibrium profiles in two-dimensional magnetohydrodynamics with background shear. Phys. Of Plasmas, 8, 813-824.

Kim, E. J., and K. B. MacGregor, 2001: Gravity wave-driven flows in the solar tachocline. ApJ., 556, L117-L120.

Knipp, D. J., C. H. Lin, B. A. Emery, J. M. Ruohoniemi, F. J. Rich*, and D. S. Evans, 2001: Hemispheric asymmetries in ionospheric electrodynamics during the solar wind void of 11 May 1999. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 4013-4016.

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Le, G., J. Raeder, C. T. Russell, G. Lu, S. M. Petrinec*, and F. Mozer, 2001: Polar cusp and vicinity under strongly northward IMF on April 11, 1997: Observations and MHD simulations. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 21,083-21,093.

Li, F.*, T. L. Killeen, A. G. Burns, W. Wang, Q. Wu, L. A. Frank, J. B. Sigwarth, and R. G. Roble, 2001: Modeling of high-latitude thermospheric Joule heating at high spatial/temporal resolution. J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys., in press.

Liemohn, M. W., J. U. Kozyra, M. F. Thomsen*, J. L. Raeder, G. Lu, J. E. Borovsky*, and T. E. Cayton*, 2001: The dominant role of the asymmetric ring current in producing the stormtime Dst*. J. Geophys. Res. 106, 10,884-10,904.

Lin, H.*, and R. Casini, 2000: A classical theory of coronal emission line polarization. ApJ., 542, 528-534.

Lin, H.*, M.J. Penn, and S. Tomczyk, 2000: New precise measurement of coronal magnetic field strength. ApJ., 541, L83.

Liu, H.-L., R.G. Roble, M.J. Taylor, and W.R. Pendleton, Jr., 2001: Mesospheric planetary waves at northern hemisphere fall equinox. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 1903-1906.

Lopez Ariste, A., H. Socas-Navarro, and B.W. Lites, 2001: Fast Inversion of spectral lines using principal components anlaysis. II. Inversion of real stokes data. ApJ., 553, 949-954.

Low, B. C., 2001: Coronal mass ejections, magnetic flux ropes, and solar magnetism. J. Geophys. Res., in press.

Lu, G., R. G. Roble, A. D. Richmond, and B. A. Emery, 2001: Coexistence of ionospheric positive and negative storm phases under northern winter conditions: A case study. J. Geophys. Res., in press.

Lu, G., S. W. H. Cowley, S. E. Milan, D. G. Silbeck, R. A. Greenwald, and T. Moretto*, 2001: Solar wind effects on ionospheric convection: A review. J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys., in press.

Lu, G., A.D. Richmond, J.M. Ruohoniemi, R.A. Greenwald, M. Hairston, F.J. Rich*, and D.S. Evans*, 2001: An investigation of the influence of data and model inputs on assimilated mapping of ionospheric electrodynamics. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 417-433.

Lyons, L.R., J.M. Ruohoniemi, and G. Lu, 2001: Substorm-associated changes in large-scale convection during November 24, 1996 Geospace Environment Modeling event. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 397-405.

MacQueen, R.M., J.T. Burkepile, T.E. Holzer, A.L. Stanger*, and K.E. Spence, 2001: Solar coronal brightness changes and mass ejections during Solar Cycle 22. ApJ., 549, 1175-1182.

Manchester, IV, W., 2001: The role of nonlinear alfven waves in shear formation during solar magnetic flux emergence. ApJ., 547, 503-519.

Manson, A., C. Meek, J. Stegman, P. Epsy*, R.G. Roble, C. Hall, W. Singer*, and C. Jacobi, 2001: Springtime transition in mesopause airglow and dynamics. J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys., in press.

Marsh, D. R., and R. G. Roble, 2001: TIME-GCM simulations of lower thermospheric nitric oxide seen by the Halogen Occultation Experiment. J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys., in press.

McIntosh, S.W., T.J. Bogdan, P.S. Cally, M. Carlsson, V.H. Hansteen, P.G. Judge, B.W. Lites, H. Peter*, C.S. Rosenthal, and T.D. Tarbell*, 2001: An observational manifestation of magnetoatmospheric waves in inter-network regions of the chromosphere and transition region. ApJ, 548, L237-L241.

Meier, R.R.*, J.M. Picone*, D.P. Drob*, and R.G. Roble, 2001: Similarity transformation-based analysis of atmospheric models, data, and inverse remote sensing algorithms. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 15,519-15,532.

Metcalfe, T. S., D. E. Winget, and P. Charbonneau, 2001: The internal composition and structure of the pulsating white dwarf GD358. ApJ, 557, 1021-1027.

Millward, G.H., I.C.F. Muller-Wodarg, A.D. Aylward, T.J. Fuller-Rowell, A.D. Richmond, and R.J. Moffett, 2001: An

https://web.archive.org/web/20030427121545/http://www.hao.ucar.edu/public/asr/asr2001/publications.htm[12/27/2016 2:00:14 PM] HAO ASR 2001: Publications

investigation into the influence of tidal forcing on F region equatorial vertical ion drift using a global ionosphere- thermosphere model with coupled electrodynamics. J. Geophys. Res. 106, 24,733-24,744.

Norman, J.P., P. Charbonneau, S.M. McIntosh*, and H. Liu, 2001: Waiting-time distributions in lattice models of solar flares. ApJ, 557, 891-896.

Oberheide, J., M.E. Hagan, W.E. Ward, M. Reise, and D. Offermann, 2000: Modeling the diurnal tide for the CRISTA 1 time period. J. Geophys. Res., 105, 24,917-24,929.

Pancheva, D., N.J. Mitchell, M.E. Hagan, A.H. Manson, C.E. Meek, Y. Luo, C. Jacobi, D. Kuerschner, R.R. Clark, W.K. Hocking, J. MacDougall, G.O.L. Jones, R.A. Vincent, I.M. Reid, W. Singer*, K. Igarashi*, G.I. Fraser, T. Nakamura, T. Tsuda, Y. Portnyagin*, 2001: Global scale tidal structure during the PSMOS campaign of June-August 1999 and comparisons with the global-scale wave model. J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys., in press.

Peymirat, C.*, A.D. Richmond, and R.G. Roble, 2001: Neutral wind influence on the electrodynamic coupling between the ionosphere and the magnetosphere. J. Geophys. Res., in press.

Peymirat, C.*, A. D. Richmond, and A. T. Kobea, 2000: Electrodynamic coupling of high and low latitudes: Simulations of shielding/overshielding effects. J. Geophys. Res., 105, 22,991-23,003.

Pulkkinen, T. I.*, N. Yu. Ganuskina, E. I. Kallio*, G. Lu, D. N. Baker, N. E. Turner, T. A. Fritz, J. F. Fennell*, and J. Raeder, 2001: Energy dissipation during a geomagnetic storm: May 1998. Adv. Space Res., in press.

Raeder, J., R.L. McPherron, L.A. Frank, W.R. Paterson, J.B. Sigwarth, G. Lu, H. Singer*, S. Kokubun, T. Mukai*, and R.P. Lepping*, 2001: Global simulation for the Geospace Modeling Substorm Challenge event. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 361-395.

Rast, M. P., 2001: A thermodynamically-induced finite-amplitude convective instability in stellar envelopes. ApJ, 561, L191.

Rast, M.P., R.W. Meisner, B.W. Lites, P.A. Fox, and O.R. White, 2001: Sunspot bright rings: Evidence from case studies. ApJ, 557, 864-879.

Richmond, A.D., 2001: Modeling the geomagnetic perturbations produced by ionospheric currents, above and below the ionosphere. J. Geodynamics, in press.

Roussev, I., K. Galsgaard, R. Erdelyi, and J. G. Doyle*, 2001: Modeling of explosive events in the solar transition region in a 2D environment. II. Various MHD experiments. Astron. Astrophys., 375, 228-242.

Russell, C. T., J. G. Luhmann, and G. Lu, 2001: The non-linear response of the polar ionosphere to large values of the interplanetary electric field. J. Geophys. Res. 106, 18,495-18,504.

Schecter, D. A., J. F. Boyd, and P. A. Gilman, 2001: "Shallow-water" magnetohydrodynamic waves in the solar tachocline. ApJ, 551, L185-L188.

Schmidt, W.*, K. Muglach*, and M. Knölker, 2000: Free-fall downflow observed in HE I 1083.0 nanometers and Hß. ApJ, 544, 567-571.

Sharma, R.D.*, and R.G. Roble, 2001: Cooling mechanisms of planetary thermospheres: The key role of O atom vibrational excitation of CO2 and NO. Comments on Atomic Molecular Phys., in press.

Sharma, R.D.*, and R.G. Roble, 2001: Impact of the new rate coefficients for the O atom vibrational deactivation and photodissociation of NO on the temperature and density structure of the terrestrial atmosphere. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 21,343.

Socas-Navarro, H., A. Lopez Ariste, and B.W. Lites, 2001: Fast inversion of spectral lines using principal component analysis. II. Inversion of real Stokes data. ApJ, 553, 949-954. https://web.archive.org/web/20030427121545/http://www.hao.ucar.edu/public/asr/asr2001/publications.htm[12/27/2016 2:00:14 PM] HAO ASR 2001: Publications

Solomon, S.C., S.M. Bailey, and T.N. Woods, 2001: Effect of solar soft X-rays on the lower ionosphere. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2149-2152.

Taylor, M.J., W.R. Pendleton, Jr., L.C. Gardner, H.-L. Liu, R.G. Roble, C.Y. She, and V. Vasoli, 2001: Large perturbations in mesospheric OH Meinel temperatures around the autumnal equinox transition period. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 1899-1902.

Thuillier, G.*, R.H. Wiens, G.G. Shepherd, and R.G. Roble, 2001: Photochemistry and dynamics in thermospheric intertropical arcs measured by the WIND Imaging Interferometer on board UARS. J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys., in press.

Wang, W., T.L. Killeen, A.G. Burns, and B.W. Reinisch, 2001: A real-time model-observations comparison of F2 peak electron densities during the Upper Atmospheric Research Collaboratory campaign of October 1997. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 21,077-21,082.

Westendorp Plaza, C.*, J.C. del Toro Iniesta*, B. Ruiz Cobo*, V. Martinez Pillet*, B.W. Lites, and A. Skumanich, 2001: Optical tomography of a sunspot. II. Vector magnetic field and temperature stratification. ApJ, 547, 1130-1147.

White, O.R., P.A. Fox, and J. Fontenla*, 2000: Extreme solar cycle variability in strong lines between 200 and 400 nm. Space Sci. Rev., 94, 67-74.

White, O.R., P.A. Fox, R.W. Meisner, M.P. Rast, E. Yasukawa, D. Koon, C. Rice, H. Lin, J. Kuhn*, and R. Coulter, 2000: Data from the precision solar photometric telescope (PSPT) in Hawaii from March 1998 to March 1999. Space Sci. Rev., 94, 75-82.

Zhang, S.P., R.G. Roble, and G.G. Shepherd, 2001: Tidal influence on the oxygen and hydroxyl nightglows: WINDII observations and TIME-GCM simulations. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 21,381.

Table of Contents · Highlights · Educational Activities · Community Service · HAO ASR Home

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Educational Activities

HAO operates its own postdoctoral program out of its NSF base funds, and hosts postdoctoral fellows from NCAR's Advanced Study Program. This year, HAO hosted a total of 12 postdoctoral fellows. The HAO visitor program also offers partial support for short- to mid-term scientific visitors, including colleagues on sabbatical leave. Overall HAO dedicates $420,000 in annual base funds to its visitor program.

HAO operates a graduate student program, primarily via the award of its Newkirk Graduate Fellowships. HAO also hosts graduate students funded via NCAR's Advanced Study Program. In FY01, HAO hosted four graduate fellows. One of these fellows David Charbonneau received Harvard University's Fireman Award for Outstanding Doctoral Student in Experimental Astrophysics. Since 1965, a total of 59 NCAR cooperative theses were carried out under the supervision of HAO staff members. In addition, HAO staff members routinely serve as external thesis committee members for graduate students in the US and abroad.

HAO also supports out of base funds a summer research internship program for undergraduate students. In addition, HAO staff participate as research mentors and scientific writing mentors in NCAR's SOARS program. This year, HAO hosted a total of eight undergraduate students for terms of two to three months.

HAO/ASP Postdoctoral Fellow Mark Miesch taught 250 students "Introduction to Astronomy" at the University of Colorado at Boulder.

HAO is also involved in public educational activities. This year, Tom Bogdan gave a public lecture at Boulder Public Library on the history of HAO. Tim Brown also gave a Walter Roberts Memorial Lecture, at Boulder Public Library, on his research project "Stellar Astrophysics and Research on Exoplanets."

Another educational outreach activity with a long tradition at HAO is the base fund-supported production of educational material distributed free of charge to teachers and educators from K-12 through college and graduate school. Currently HAO has in stock three distinct slide sets (two with internet-based versions available online) on coronal physics, introduction to the Sun, and solar archeoastronomy in the American Southwest. Over 450 copies of the latter two sets have been distributed to date. Every year HAO staff members host teachers from project LEARN, visit local schools, and serve as judges at local science fairs. From its inception in 1995 the HAO Web Site has included a very visible and elaborate education section. Built originally around a set of multi-level, difficulty-graded question-and-answer sections, the HAO education pages have grown to include slide sets and image maps, and ever-growing material on the history of solar physics.

The Windows to the Universe project continues to provide a major outreach vehicle for HAO to students, teachers and the general public. Windows to the Universe includes extensive background content on HAO-related science through its Solar, Earth, and two dedicated space weather sections. In addition, the web site is being used to support specific direct funded NASA and NSF projects involving HAO scientists. These include education and outreach support for several projects from the University of Michigan, including the NSF-supported CSEM modelling effort (Dr. Bob Clauer, PI), the NASA- supported Space Weather Modeling Framework project (Prof. Tamas Gombosi, PI) and the NSF-supported Space Physics and Aeronomy Research Collaboratory (Prof. Gary Olson, PI). In addition, several proposals in review will also leverage the Windows to the Universe project, if successfully funded. These include the Boston University Science and Technology Center, and several recently submitted NASA OSS E/PO supplements. Over the past year, the Windows to the Universe web site has been visited by ~4.3 million users, visiting 37.4 million web pages on the site (corresponding to 127 million hits).

In addition to the large number of such requests placed by colleagues for research purposes, each month the HAO Webmasters field dozens of requests for data and pictorical material from book authors, publishers, journalists, etc. An equally large number of e-mail queries funnelled through the Web site are from students at all grade levels; these queries are https://web.archive.org/web/20030707152648/http://www.hao.ucar.edu/public/asr/asr2001/education.htm[12/27/2016 2:01:28 PM] HAO ASR 2001: Educational Activities

handled on a case-by-case basis, often leading to sustained e-mail exchanges with students in need of information for assignments or term papers (latest such query fielded at this writing: "Why are days getting shorter even though sunrise time is still getting later?"). The HAO staff also field, by e-mail or regular mail, a constant stream of more basic questions from adults and children (recent sample: "How many Watt does the sun shine?," "What's the date line?" "When is the next eclipse?"). HAO is holding steadfast on it long-time policy of providing material free of charge for research and educational purposes.

Table of Contents · Highlights · Publications · Community Service · HAO ASR Home

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Community Service and Awards

Editorships

Tom Bogdan, Member, Editorial Board, Astronomische Nachrichten, 2001 Alan Burns, Associate Editor, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar Terrestrial Physics, 2000-present Peter Fox, Editorial Board Member, AGU Monograph, 2001 Sarah Gibson, Guest Editor, COSPAR 2000 proceedings Advances in Space Research, 2001 Timothy Killeen, Editor-in-Chief, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 1999-present Boon Chye Low, Editorial Board Member, Solar Physics journal Arthur Richmond, Associate Editor, Journal of Geophysical Research, Space Physics, 1997-2001 Scientific, Policy, or Educational Committees and Advisory Panel/Boards

Tim Brown

Member, Big Bear Solar Observatory Advisory Committee, California Member, NSF Astronomy Proposal Review Panel, Washington, D. C. and California

Joan Burkepile

Member, Steering Committee SHINE Co-organizer, 2001 spring special session AGU Session chair, 2001 spring session AGU

Alan Burns

NASA SR&T Proposal Panel, 2000

Paul Charbonneau

Evening Astronomy Lecture, COSMOS Upward Bound Program, University of Northern Colorado External reviewer for individual grant programs of the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council Canada External reviewer for team grant program of Fonds pour l'Aide à la Recherche, Canada Junior Adjunct Professor University of Colorado, APS Department Member, scientific organizing committee, ESO Workshop Magnetic Fields across the Hertzsprung-Russell Diagram

Barbara Emery

Member, NASA Information Systems and Science Operations Management Operations Workshop, 1997-present Ex-Officio Member, CEDAR Science Steering Committee, 1987-present

Yuhong Fan

Member, NASA Sun-Earth Connection Theory Program's Solar and Heliospheric review panel

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Member, NOAA Critical Design Review Panel for SXI Ground Data System, 2000 Member, Senior Personnel, Earth System Grid Member, SunRISE Scientific Steering Committee, 1994-present Member, DODS Technical Advisory Committee, 1997-present Member, Scientific Committee on Solar Terrestrial Physics, Working Group 1, Subgroups 1 and 3, 1997-present Co-leader, Scientific Committee on Solar Terrestrial Physics Subgroup 1, 1999-present Member, 2001 Symposium scientific organizing committee International Solar Cycle Studies Chair, 2001 Symposium local organizing committee International Solar Cycle Studies Program/Session Chair, 2001 Symposium International Solar Cycle Studies Program/Session Chair, TIMED/CEDAR Data Services, 2001

Daniel Gablehouse

Member, Data System Working Group, NASA TIMED Mission, 2000-present Member, Science Working Group, NASA TIMED Mission, 2000-present

Sarah Gibson

Member, Review Panel Board NASA SEC Theory Program grant proposals, 2001

Holly Gilbert

Member, UCAR Steering Committee, Early Career Scientist Assembly Member, Project and Associate Scientist Review Committee UCAR

Peter Gilman

Member, AURA Board of Directors Chair, Solar Observatory Council, AURA Member, NSO GONG Scientific Advisory Committee Participant, NASA/LWS planning workshop Member, HAO/NSO Solar Magnetism Initiative steering committee Member, NSO SOLIS Advisory Committee,

Maura Hagan

Member, Magnetosphere-Ionosphere-Atmosphere Panel for the Solar and Space Physics Community Assessment and Strategy for the Future, 2001-present Co-chair, Planetary Scale Mesopause Observing System (PSMOS) Steering Committee, 1996-present SCOSTEP Scientific Discipline Representative, SCOSTEP International Council of Scientific Unions, 1999-present

Tom Holzer

Member, Fellows Selection Committee AGU

Roberta Johnson

Chair, American Geophysical Union, Committee on Education and Human Resources, 2000-2002 Member, American Meteorological Association, Education Advisory Committee, 2000-2002 Member, Denver Museum of Nature and Science, Space Odyssey Advisory Board Member, Advisory Board, Vermont Center for the Book Member, Space Science Board Solar and Space Physics Education Survey Committee, 2000-2001 Member, Earth System Science and Applications Advisory Committee, 2001-2003 NASA Earth Science Enterprise

Phil Judge

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Member, NSO Users Committee, 2001-present Member, ATST Science Working Group 2001-present

Timothy Killeen

Chair, UN Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) Commission C3: Thermosphere and Ionosphere, 1995-present Member, National Science Foundation Geosciences Directorate: Geosciences, Beyond 2000, Strategic Plan for the Geosciences, 1998-2000 Member, NSF Advisory Committee for Geosciences (AC/GEO), 2000-present Member, American Geophysical Union, Global Climate Change Panel, 1998-present Member, Visiting Committee for the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Laboratory for Atmospheres, 1996-present Member, International Arctic Research Center Oversight Council (IARC OC), 2000-present Member, National Academy of Sciences, Solar and Space Physics Survey Panel on Magnetosphere-Ionosphere- Atmosphere (MIA), 2001-present Member, Scientific Advisory Committee, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR), 2001-present Member, Community Climate Systems Model (CCSM) Advisory Board (CAB), 2000-present

Michael Knoelker

Member, AURA Board of Directors, 1999-present Co-Chair, HAO/NSO Solar Magnetism Initiative Steering Committee, 1995-present

Bruce Lites

Member, HAO/NSO Solar Magnetism Initiative Steering Committee, 1995-present Member, ATST Science Working Group, 2001-present

Gang Lu

Associate, University of Colorado Center for Integrated Plasma Studies, 1996-present Member, International Space Science Institute, Switzerland Auroral Plasma Physics Working Group, 1999-present Member, Scientific Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Physics (SCOSTEP), Scientific Discipline Representative, 1999- present

Arthur Richmond

Member, Science and Technology Definition Team, NASA Global Electrodynamics Mission, 1982-2001 Member, CEDAR Science Steering Committee, 2000-2003

Ray Roble

Member, Advisory Board, Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, 1985-present Member, University of Michigan, College of Engineering Alumni Society Board of Governors, 1996-present Member, NSF Arecibo Visiting Committee, 1999-present Member, GEM Global Geospace Circulation Modeling (GGCM) advisory panel, 1999-present

Stan Solomon

Member, NASA TIMED Mission Science Working Group, 1993-present Member, Steering Committee, Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Geosphere Research, 1998-present

Honors and Awards

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Tim Brown

NCAR Distinguished Achievement Award

Dave Charbonneau

Harvard University Fireman Award, Outstanding Doctoral Student in Experimental Astrophysics, 2000

Hector Navarro

Best PhD thesis, granted by the Spanish Astronomical Society, presented in Spain 1999 and 2000 Best Canary-resident young researcher (category: experimental sciences, under age 30), granted by the Canary Island Government

Arthur Richmond

AGU Fellow

Table of Contents · Highlights · Publications · Educational Activities · HAO ASR Home

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Close

DIRECTOR'S MESSAGE

A major activity in 2001 was the five-year NSF review of the division. In preparation for this review the division revisited, reevaluated and revised its Science Plan. The review and science plan will be discussed in more detail below. First I will relay some background material on the Division. Pictured with me above is Rich Rotunno (left), Assistant Director for MMM. Rich assists with the daily administration of the Division. This allows me to fulfill my commitment to spend 50% of my time on USWRP. Division Overview

The Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology (MMM) Division is one of nine programs or divisions within the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The mission of MMM is to advance the fundamental understanding of mesoscale and microscale processes and to improve the modeling, observation and prediction of these processes. The division's research ranges from basic to applied. In addition, MMM contributes to the direct transfer of knowledge to benefit society. To do this effectively we rely on collaboration with the other NCAR divisions/programs and the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) programs whose missions are more directly aligned to technology transfer. Much of our research also involves collaborations with scientists outside the division, especially university scientists.

The division is organized into five science groups. A computing system management group and an administrative group provide support to the division. We also have an extensive Visitor Program. Effective January 1, 2002, we will undergo a slight restructuring with the addition of a sixth group formed from members of several of the existing groups. This group will be called the Prediction Diagnostic Group and will be headed by Rit Carbone. Its emphasis will be on diagnostic studies of mesoscale systems, their life cycles and the performance of prediction systems for mesoscale phenomena. The other groups within the division will remain essentially unchanged, except for a few individuals moving to the new group.

The division consists of 75 staff. Of the 38 scientists within the division, there are 15 senior scientists and 1 senior scientist emeritus, 11 scientists I-IIIs, and 11 project scientists. Twelve of these scientists/project scientists hold joint appointments with other NCAR or UCAR divisions/programs. This January, the division will hire a new Scientist I, which will also be a joint appointment with ESIG. Within the scientific ranks, the division has 15 associate scientists. In addition, collocated with the division is a group, lead by David Jorgensen, from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL). The NSSL group specializes in airborne dual-Doppler observations of mesoscale systems and augments the MMM program in mesoscale observations. The division is also honored to have three Senior Research Associates: William Bonner, Joachim Kuettner and John Latham; as well as five affiliate scientists: Lance Bosart, Larry Mahrt, Richard Reed, Bjorn Stevens and Xiaolei Zou.

The Science Plan

Several years ago the Division undertook an effort to develop a scientific strategic plan. The plan was structured around two primary programs with broad goals, and each of these large programs consisted of components that contribute to achieving the overall goals. Recently, the division revised the scientific strategic plan and renamed it the Science Plan. The two major Programs remain unchanged although there was some refinement of the components within these programs to better support the goals. The first program, the Prediction of Precipitation Weather Systems (PPWS) Program is coordinated by Joseph Klemp. It is designed to advance the understanding and prediction of significant precipitation events in order to reduce forecast errors toward the limits of predictability. The second program, the Cloud and Surface Processes and Parameterization (CaSPP) Program is coordinated by Andy Heymsfield. Its focus is to quantify the large scale effects of mesoscale and microscale processes and to develop physically based methods to account for these effects in large-scale models. The latter program addresses the parameterization problem in both climate simulation and prediction and in weather forecasting models.

One role of the two primary programs is to facilitate communications between researchers within the division, between the division and other NCAR divisions, and within the external community, especially with university scientists working on common research. Through this communication process areas are identified where collaboration and coordination of efforts will help to achieve the goals of the program. Our collaborative efforts will also facilitate the process for seeking funding for research either from NSF or from other external sources. We use the Science Plan as a guide in preparing documents such as this Annual Scientific Report as well as the annual NCAR Program Plan. We also use it to define priorities for the distribution of resources within the division. The Science Plan is available at http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/mmm/stratplan.html. The NSF Review

Every five years NCAR undergoes a thorough external review. This includes reviews of each division and an overall review of the management of NCAR by UCAR. The review is required prior to preparing for a renewal of the cooperative agreement between NSF and UCAR for the management of NCAR.

For this year's MMM divisional review a document was prepared describing the achievements of the division over the last three years and its plans for the next three years. This document was reviewed by a group of NSF-appointed anonymous reviewers and then by an NSF-appointed panel of experts that convened in Boulder, October 17-19, 2001. The panel consisted of Richard Johnson (Colorado State University), Simon Chang (ONR/NRL), Philip Durkee (Naval Postgraduate School), Elbert Friday (NAS/BASC), Michael Fritsch (Penn State), John Hayes (NOAA/NWS) and Arleen Laing (University of S. Florida). The results of the review were extremely positive. The Panel “unanimously (concluded) that the overall scientific research in MMM is of the highest quality, leading to advances in the understanding of weather and climate and important applications of this knowledge (e.g., weather prediction) to the benefit society.” It commended the MMM Division “for developing a comprehensive Science Plan…” The panel had valuable recommendations for the division which we will be incorporating into our plans for change within the division over the next several years.

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Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Scientific Highlights

Over the past year, the division has had a number of significant accomplishments. Further detail can be found in MMM's section of the FY2001 ASR. Mesoscale Dynamics and Predictability

Thomas Hamill and Chris Snyder have used an ensemble Kalman filter in a quasigeostrophic model to show for the first time that the effect of a given future observation on analysis uncertainty can be quantitatively estimated in advance of the actual measurement. This notion underlies all adaptive observing strategies, which seek to determine the observation locations that yield an optimum forecast. Given an appropriate ensemble of short-range forecasts, their technique can also quantitatively account for the effects of assimilating the chosen observations with a sub-optimal data assimilation scheme.

Expected fractional reduction of analysis error variance from application of adaptive observation algorithm based on an ensemble Kalman filter. Results are shown for Day 14 of the 90-day test in a quasigeostrophic model (see Figure 1).

Figure 1. (a) True geopotential height (solid) and potential temperature (dashed) at the model tropopause; (b) Expected fractional reduction in analysis error variance for each potential observation location in the domain; the value at a given location thus denotes the fractional reduction over the entire domain if an observation were to be assimilated at that location (normalized by the sum of background-error variances before the assimilation of an adaptive observation). Dots indicate locations of fixed network of observations previously assimilated. Star indicates location of maximum expected reduction (the target location). Contours at 2% and every 4% thereafter; (c) As in (b), but the improvement after the first adaptive observation has been assimilated. Again, the fractional reduction is normalized by the background-error variance. Life Cycle of Precipitation Weather Systems

Christopher Davis and Stanley Trier performed the first cloud-resolving simulations of the interaction between a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) and a mesoscale convective system (MCS) over an entire diurnal cycle. The case was the first day of the three-day serial MCS of 27-29 May, 1998. The MM5 model was used, initialized from a Rapid Update Cycle analysis and nested to 1.5 km grid spacing covering the entire MCS. The heavy rainfall in this case was well predicted primarily because of the influence of the highly predictable MCV. The convection re-invigorated the MCV, but contrary to results from previous studies, the simulation showed the MCV strengthened first in the lower troposphere and later in the middle troposphere as shown in the Figure 2.

Figure 2. Time-radius diagrams of azimuthal mean tangential wind and maximum rain water mixing ratio at 500 hPa (left panel) and 900 hPa (right panel). The vortex center is defined separately at each level. All quantities were computed on domain 2 (13.3 km grid spacing). Time=0 refers to the start of the simulation (1500 UTC 27 May, 1998). Data Assimilation Research

Over the past few years, MMM has been developing a mesoscale 3DVAR system based on the MM5 model. This system has matured and will be operationally implemented at Taiwan's Civil Aeronautics Administration, the U.S. Air Force and the Korean Meteorological Administration in 2002. A collaboration between MMM and the Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA) to implement 3DVAR in operations at KMA began in 2001 (see Figure 3). In May 2001, the MM5 3DVAR system was chosen as the starting point for initial data assimilation capabilities of the WRF 3DVAR. Dale Barker has modified the grid staggering in the 3DVAR system from the Arakawa B-grid of MM5 to an unstaggered grid, which has been chosen for WRF 3DVAR for generality and simplicity. Alfred Bourgeois has modified the WRF software framework to accommodate the WRF 3DVAR and has extended the framework's capabilities to provide parallelism for the 3DVAR code. All MM5 3DVAR applications have now adopted the WRF 3DVAR coding structure, allowing MMM 3DVAR efforts to concentrate on a single data-assimilation system. The first release of a basic version of the WRF 3DVAR, coupled to the WRF forecast model, is expected around the end of calendar year 2001.

Figure 3. The left and right plots show the accumulated 48 hour rainfall for this case. Left is old analysis (Cressman objective analysis), right is new (3DVAR); highlighted areas are approximately the same as observed area. Note maximum rainfall in MM5 forecast from 3DVAR is situated along the N/S Korean border. The central plot is the corresponding 48 hour rainfall observed by the S. Korean AWS surface observation network. 3DVAR forecast precipitation is better placed.

WRF Model Development

The multi-agency WRF Development Project achieved major advances over the past year. Joseph Klemp, William Skamarock, John Michalakes, Jimy Dudhia, David Gill and Wei Wang have collaborated with other WRF developers to release a first version of the model to the community in December, 2000. During FY01, approximately 400 users have downloaded the model code. This version integrates the full nonhydrostatic equations using advanced numerics in a terrain-following height coordinate, within a software framework that provides effective parallelism on diverse computer architectures. They have also developed a second prototype, employing a mass coordinate in the vertical, and both versions are running daily in experimental real-time forecasts. In these forecasts, the height and mass coordinate prototypes exhibit very similar behavior, and they are demonstrating good agreement with observations as illustrated in Figure 4. Further information on WRF development can be found on the WRF web site (www.wrf-model.org). https://web.archive.org/web/20030510014505/http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/asr2001/[12/27/2016 2:04:44 PM] Untitled Document

Figure 4. 48 h forecast with 22 km WRF for tropical storm Barry, verifying at 0000Z UTC 6 August 2001, just prior to landfall along the Florida panhandle. Surface pressure is contoured in mb and color shading depicts 6 h precipitation. Land-Atmosphere Interaction

With a clear-air large-eddy simulation model coupled to a land-surface model, Edward Patton (Penn State), Peter Sullivan and Chin-Hoh Moeng have been documenting the atmospheric boundary layer's response to large scale soil moisture heterogeneity. Land-surface heterogeneity, at scales roughly four times the boundary layer depth, are found to most dramatically modify bulk boundary layer characteristics (see Figure 5). Most important is the finding that for heterogeneous land surfaces of this scale, the boundary-layer entrainment rate decreases by fourteen percent compared to a boundary layer forced by a homogeneous land-surface. This decrease in entrainment rate results from energy input at the ground surface forming large scale circulations rather than performing work entraining air from the free atmosphere. Turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) is larger for these heterogeneous cases than homogeneous cases. This suggests that large-scale models that forecast TKE to estimate the PBL depth will err, if the underlying surface is heterogeneous.

Figure 5. Instantaneous vertical slices of vertical velocity and water vapor mixing ratio from two coupled LES-LSM simulations. The instantaneous surface forcing (sensible (H), latent (LE) and soil (G) heat fluxes) and available soil moisture (Q) at the first model level in the LSM are depicted in the lower panels. On average, the surface forcing (H + LE) imposed on the atmosphere is the same for the heterogeneous and homogeneous cases. Heterogeneity induces vigorous organized PBL motions which are clearly visible in the vertical velocity and mixing ratio fields.

Tropical Convection

Wojciech Grabowski and Mitchell Moncrieff investigated the large-scale organization of tropical convection in idealized two-dimensional (x-z) cloud-resolving simulations, using a periodic global-scale domain (20,000 km) and a horizontally homogeneous SST. Two sets of simulations were performed. One used prescribed radiative cooling and the other cloud-radiation interaction. With prescribed radiation, simulated mesoscale organized convective systems several hundred kilometers in scale move east-to-west at approximately the mean-wind speed (Figure 6). These systems are embedded within west-to- east propagating envelopes of convection several thousand kilometers in scale, whose propagation speeds resemble observed convectively coupled Kelvin waves. Convective momentum transport and the impact of convective systems on the temperature and moisture near the surface are key processes responsible for the large-scale organization of convection. With cloud-interactive radiation, an additional mechanism of organization occurs: large-scale, long-lived convective clusters occur within the ascending branches of weak overturning circulations that are steered by the mean wind. These circulations are a large-scale baroclinic response to horizontal gradients of radiative heating between the moist and dry regions. The robustness of these results are demonstrated by sensitivity tests using different radiation transfer models and microphysical parameterizations, as well as the effects of wind shear.

Figure 6. Simulated Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS). a) Westward-traveling MCS, strong, localized leading convection, weaker extensive trailing stratiform region; b) Horizontal relative velocity perturbation shows a classic strong rear inflow & outflow dipole (viz., the distinctive momentum transport); c:) Latent heating shows two strong peaks (leading line and rearward secondary system) with a weak stratiform component

Large eddy simulations of shallow cumulus

The Dynamics and Chemistry of Marine Stratocumulus (DYCOMS-II) was carried out with the NCAR C-130 in July 2001 about 300 km off the coast of southern California by Donald Lenschow, Bjorn Stevens (UCLA), Gabor Vali (U of Wyoming), Christopher Bretherton (U of Washington), Alan Bandy (Drexel University) and Hermann Gerber (Gerber Scientific). Measurements collected during ~82 hrs of flight time included fast-response measurements of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) which has optimal tracer properties for measuring entrainment, fast in-cloud measurements of temperature, humidity and liquid water, the Wyoming Cloud Radar and the NCAR Scanning Aerosol Backscatter Lidar (SABL) which provide remote measurements of cloud and drizzle structure, and the NCAR GPS dropsondes for vertical profiles of temperature, humidity and winds. Analysis of the data set, carried out over the next several years, will include making comparisons with LES, examining the details of the entrainment process, studying the role of aerosols in stratiform cloud evolution, and elucidating the processes involved in the development of mesoscale circulations. Recently the data has been used to estimate entrainment velocity from the DMS mean and flux profiles for DYCOMS-II as shown in Figure 7.

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Figure 7. Estimating entrainment velocity from the DMS mean and flux profiles for DYCOMS-II, Flight 1. The curve on the left is obtained from a C-130 sounding, and the data points on the left and right panels are from circular flight paths of 60 km diameter. The entrainment velocity We = 0.005 m/s, which agrees with the water and ozone fluxes, and with what is expected climatologically. The DMS measurement is easily capable of resolving this flux.

Ice Microphysics

The evolution of ice particle size distributions from the top to the base of ice clouds in Brazil and Kwajalein were studied from data collected during field campaigns associated with the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM). MMM researchers Andrew Heymsfield, Aaron Bansemer, James Dye and William Hall, along with Jeffrey Stith (NCAR/ATD), Paul Field (U.K. Meteorological Office), Anthony Grainger (U of North Dakota) and Steve Durden (NASA/JPL) were involved in this study. Using slow, Lagrangian-type spiral descents through ice cloud layers that were on average four kilometers deep, coupled with the use of new instrumentation, allowed these scientists to obtain particle habit and size distribution data for sizes from about 25 microns to above 1 cm. The size distributions were found to have broadened from cloud top towards cloud base. The largest particles increased in size from several millimeters at cloud top to one centimeter or larger towards cloud base. Also noted was that the concentrations of particles smaller than 1 mm decreased with decreasing height. The result was a consistent change in the particle size distributions (PSD) in the vertical. Aggregation-as ascertained from both the changes in the PSDs and evolution of particle habits as observed in high detail with a new probe-was responsible for these trends.

The size distributions were fitted to curves of gamma distribution form, and it was found that the gamma fit parameters vary in a systematic way in the vertical. A set of equations that can be used to derive bulk properties including the extinction, ice water content and precipitation rate were developed to facilitate the use of the size distributions and related moments in cloud resolving and general circulation models (see Figure 8.)

Figure 8. Vertical variability of ice particle size distributions in TRMM.

Chemistry and Dynamics Interactions

The production rate of nitrogen oxides from lightning is important to upper tropospheric ozone chemistry, and the production rate is highly uncertain. Due to those factors William Skamarock, James Dye, Eric Defer, Mary Barth (joint with ACD), Jeffrey Stith (ATD), Brian Ridley (ACD), and Karsten Baumann (Georgia Institute of Technology) have synthesized aircraft observations, results from numerical simulations and observations of total lightning channel lengths. They have determined the production of nitrogen oxides from lightning to be 1.4 x 1021 molecules per meter flash length for the July 10, 1996 thunderstorm observed in northeastern Colorado during the STERAO field campaign. This is the first time that the production rate has linked the increase of nitrogen oxides measured in the outflow of a thunderstorm to the lightning characteristics of the storm (see Figure 9).

Figure 9

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A. Prediction of Precipitating Weather Systems (PPWS) Program

One of the two primary scientific programs in the division is the Prediction of Precipitating Weather Systems (PPWS) program. Its goal is to advance the understanding and prediction of significant precipitation events in order to substantially reduce forecast errors toward the limits of predictability. The accurate prediction of precipitating weather systems is an important topic in the U. S. Weather Research Program (USWRP). There is good potential for advancements in this area because of emerging operational observing systems, high-resolution non-hydrostatic forecast and data assimilation systems, and the continued rapid growth in computer power. Within MMM, there is broad interest and expertise in the observation, analysis, and prediction of precipitation systems, along with opportunities to leverage division resources through collaboration with other NCAR divisions, government laboratories and the university community. The research within MMM focuses on specific areas where MMM's expertise is best suited to advance the science. These areas include mesoscale dynamics and predictability, the life cycle of mesoscale precipitating weather systems, mesoscale data assimilation and high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP). These topics are highly interrelated, and research contributing to the advancement of mesoscale assimilation and forecast systems is focused toward development of a new multi-agency Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model.

1. Mesoscale Dynamics And Predictability

The skill of precipitation forecasts is limited by both fundamental and practical constraints. The practical constraints include the accuracy of the forecast model and the accuracy of its initial conditions. This is in turn determined by the available observations and their quality and by the scheme used to assimilate those observations. The fundamental constraint is the finite limit of predictability, which arises even for an accurate model and initial conditions from the influence of unresolved scales.

Dynamics

Understanding the relation between meso- and synoptic-scale flows involves, in part, understanding how atmospheric dynamics change as the Rossby number increases. At small Rossby number, virtually all dynamical theories rest upon the foundation of quasigeostrophy (QG), which is the leading-order theory in Rossby number. David Muraki (Simon Fraser University, Canada), Chris Snyder and Richard Rotunno have introduced a convenient technique for extending QG to an additional order in Rossby number; they call this extended theory "QG+1."

Greg Hakim (University of Washington), Snyder and Muraki have applied QG+1 to simulations of quasi-two-dimensional, balanced, decaying turbulence to understand the observed preference for cyclonic vortices on the tropopause at subsynoptic scales. These simulations produce numerous small cyclonic vortices with sharp edges, while the anticyclones are infrequent, relatively large scale and diffuse. These asymmetries appear to arise not from corrections to the basic geostrophic balance (e.g., gradient wind balance) but through the action of the horizontally divergent component of velocity during frontogenesis; in essence, the asymmetries are tied to the fact that on average warm air rises and cold air sinks during frontogenesis, thus leading to a mean cooling at the surface.

Prediction and Predictability

Fuqing Zhang (USWRP postdoc, now Texas A&M University), Snyder and Rotunno have explored the limits of predictability for precipitation within the context of the "surprise" snowstorm that paralyzed Washington, D.C. on 25 January, 2000. Their work began by analyzing a number of practical influences on the skill of the 36-h forecast of this storm, such as the model resolution and the initial conditions. They found that reducing the horizontal resolution from 10 km to 30 km, or using another, equally plausible initial analysis, can significantly degrade the precipitation forecast. In both cases, the degradation of the forecast is intimately tied to moist processes, which result in the growth of forecast differences at horizontal scales of a few hundred to a few tens of kilometers. These experiments have led Zhang et al. to consider more explicitly how initial errors of small scale and small amplitude can alter the subsequent forecast. Using an embedded, 3-km grid, they have shown that initial differences with scales of less than 100 km and amplitudes of less than 1 K, grow rapidly by altering the position and timing of individual convective elements (in this case, in a region of negative lifted index over Louisiana). The differences then contaminate larger scales, altering the mature cyclone and the precipitation over the East coast 36 h later. It is clear that this growth from small to large scales places an upper bound of a few tens of hours on skillful, deterministic precipitation forecasts.

Thomas Hamill (NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center), Snyder and Rebecca Morss have also used a quasi-geostrophic model, along with a three-dimensional variational assimilation (3DVAR) scheme, to explore the characteristics of forecast and analysis errors at synoptic scales. They find that both forecast and analysis errors reflect the influence of the dynamics: The errors have significant projection on the subspace of leading Lyapunov vectors. Their time-mean vertical distribution in both energy and potential enstrophy is similar to that in the "true" state, and error variance in potential vorticity is typically confined to regions in which the true state has large gradients of potential vorticity. A consequence of this dynamical influence is that the spectrum of the covariance matrix for both forecast and analysis errors is steep and small samples (or ensembles, of a few 10's of members) can provide much information about the errors.

The fact that a small ensemble can provide useful information about forecast errors provides potential for improving data assimilation schemes, thereby decreasing the practical limitations on forecast skill. The resulting assimilation schemes are typically referred to as ensemble Kalman filters (EnKF). Hamill, Snyder and Jeff Whitaker (NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center) have examined the use of distance-dependent truncation of the ensemble information in the EnKF. Snyder and Zhang have applied the EnKF to the analysis and prediction of convective scale motions using the simple cloud model developed by Juanzhen Sun. They have shown that a 50-member EnKF is able to estimate tangential and vertical velocity and temperature, given simulated Doppler-radar observations of radial velocity alone (extracted from a reference simulation of a supercell thunderstorm). Typically, about 4 volume scans (or 20 minutes) of observations are required to produce a good estimate of the unobserved variables. These results hold substantial promise for the application of the EnKF to meso- and convective scales, where more traditional assimilation schemes such as 3DVar can be problematic.

Given the location and uncertainty of an observation, the EnKF can provide a quantitative estimate of the impact of that observation on the analysis uncertainty. This provides a basis for adaptive observational strategies, which seek improved forecasts by reallocating observational resources to improve the analysis. Hamill and Snyder completed a study within the quasi-geostrophic model that tests the use of the EnKF in the adaptive design of observing networks. They have developed a simple and efficient algorithm to choose the locations of observations: using the ensemble Kalman filter, they find the location at which the impact of an observation is estimated to be largest. They then find the next best location given the first observation and continue the process up to the desired number of observations. In these tests, they find that as few as half as many adaptive observations are required to produce analyses with the same uncertainty as those obtained for a given fixed observation network.

Expected fractional reduction of analysis error variance from application of adaptive observation algorithm based on an ensemble Kalman filter. Results are shown for Day 14 of the 90-day test in a quasigeostrophic model (see Figure 1).

Figure 1. (a) True geopotential height (solid) and potential temperature (dashed) at the model tropopause; (b) Expected fractional reduction in analysis error variance for each potential observation location in the domain; the value at a given location thus denotes the fractional reduction over the entire domain if an observation were to be assimilated at that location (normalized by the sum of background-error variances before the assimilation of an adaptive observation). Dots indicate locations of fixed network of observations previously assimilated. Star indicates location of maximum expected reduction (the target location). Contours at 2% and every 4% thereafter; (c) As in (b), but the improvement after the first adaptive observation has been assimilated. Again, the fractional reduction is normalized by the background-error variance.

The Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS)

In response to the need for improved forecasting capabilities to support the United States Antarctic Program at McMurdo Station MMM has developed and implemented an experimental, MM5-based NWP system for Antarctica. The system, known as AMPS (Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System), has operated since the 2000-2001 field season. AMPS employs the Polar MM5, a version of the model containing parameterizations and features aimed to better capture polar conditions. These features encompass packages such as modified radiation schemes and the inclusion of sea ice. AMPS provides higher resolution over the regions of key forecast concern than other available Antarctic guidance, with 10-km horizontal grids over the Western Ross Sea/McMurdo Station and the South Pole areas. AMPS has served to assist the daily forecasting for McMurdo and the South Pole performed by the Space and Naval Warfare Systems Center (SPAWAR) for NSF, and was also employed in the successful medical rescue of Dr. Ronald Shemenski from the South Pole in April, 2001. An AMPS forecast archive is maintained to support the research of modelers, polar meteorologists and grad students.

Figure 1 presents an example of an AMPS forecast of surface temperatures (shaded) and winds (barbs) in the immediate Ross Island area (hr 24, 29 Nov 0000 UTC initialization). Information from such products is used for planning flight operations and scientific activities on the ice, and the AMPS output is distributed via the web at http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/rt/mm5/amps. The MMM scientists behind the AMPS Project are Bill Kuo, Jordan Powers, Jim Bresch and Kevin Manning.

Figure 1. AMPS forecast of surface temperatures (shaded) and winds (barbs) in the immediate Ross Island area (hr 24, 29 Nov 0000 UTC initialization).

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2. Life Cycle Of Precipitating Weather Systems

Increasing our understanding of how precipitation systems initiate, mature and decay is a fundamental problem in atmospheric science. This understanding is central to quantifying the intrinsic predictability of such systems and improving methods to forecast them. The principal type of system considered is that in which deep moist convection is organized, long-lived and exhibits upscale growth. A second major topic involves the dynamics of systems in which precipitation is strongly localized by frontal or orographic circulations and may involve frozen precipitation. These two subsets of precipitating systems probably represent the greatest challenge for PPWS.

Convective Initiation

Stanley Trier and Christopher Davis collaborated with investigators within NCAR/RAP (Cynthia Mueller, Daniel Megenhardt, and James Wilson) to examine the utility of mesoscale kinematic and thermodynamic information from RUC analyses and forecasts for short-range (0-3 h) forecasts of convective initiation and evolution. Testing on five widespread convective outbreaks, each of which caused significant disruption to United States air traffic operations, indicated that both absolute values and hourly trends of derived thermodynamic parameters, including convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN) in multiple lower-tropospheric layers, were useful in determining when the local onset of deep convection would occur. They were also useful in identifying where, within preexisting areas of widespread convection, convection might subsequently weaken or decay. Future work is planned to examine these parameters, along with other thermodynamic and kinematic parameters (e.g., the vertical wind shear) as potential predictors for local initiation, areal growth, decay and movement of deep convection over a wider range of cases. Algorithms, based on the statistics from such studies, will be developed to aid in the automated short-range forecasting of these aforementioned aspects of deep convection.

Long-time-scale Dynamics of Mesoscale Convective Systems

a) Convective episodes

Studies on warm season precipitation "episodes" by Richard Carbone, John Tuttle, David Ahijevych, Christopher Davis, Stanley Trier and L. Jay Miller have progressed from their initial efforts to characterize the two-dimensional climatology. "Episodes" are defined as time/space clusters of heavy precipitation that often result from sequences of organized convection such as squall lines, mesoscale convective systems and mesoscale convective complexes. Understanding the dynamics of convective episodes is crucial for developing improved, non-local representations of convection in numerical models. The climatologies also provide the basis for statistical/dynamical prediction of warm season rainfall, perhaps leading to realistic probabilistic representations of precipitation in forecast models.

Three avenues of research and related service activities were undertaken during the past year:

(i) Episode Studies

John Tuttle and Richard Carbone are nearing completion of an investigation of a long-lived convective system that persisted for two days over the central U.S. on 14-15 July, 1998. The event featured an abrupt change in its orientation and propagation vector that occurred about midway through its life (see Fig 2). The convection initiated over the higher terrain of southwestern Montana (Figure 2-left image) and became loosely organized into a N-S line perpendicular to the W-E oriented, low level shear vector (Figure 2-right image). A cold pool formed and raced ahead of the storm resulting in a succession of discrete propagation events across Montana and North Dakota. Upon entering Minnesota the convection intensified and assumed an E-W orientation in response to the increased moisture, the strong southerly flow and the N-S oriented shear vector. There were no indications of any strong fronts that could have accounted for the abrupt changes or the longevity of the system. Following its reorientation, the line moved slowly southward initially, but in the highly unstable and favorably sheared environment, a strong rear-inflow jet developed and the system bowed southward into southern Minnesota and Iowa. The storm then decayed rapidly as it moved into dryer, more stable air due to subsidence aloft. It was concluded that favorable cold pool - low level wind shear interactions and changes in the lower tropospheric shear vector orientation can explain the life cycle transformation.

Figure 2. Study of a long-lived convective system that persisted over the United States from 14 - 15 July 1998.

L. Jay Miller is studying a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) that persisted for more than 2 days, 21-23 June 1998. A sequence of intensification, decay, and regeneration led to this relatively long-lived mesoscale convective event.

Figure 3 shows the radar reflectivity swath associated with this compound event. Early afternoon convection on 21 June along the front range of the Rocky Mountains in northern Colorado organized into an MCS as it moved eastward across Kansas. The MCS reached its most intense rainout phase in central Kansas as it encountered moist, southeasterly flow from the Gulf. New organized convection that developed in eastern Kansas ahead of the older MCS continued eastward as a new MCS. Eventually it dove southeastward as it encountered northward-streaming, gulf-coast moist air west of the Appalachian Mountains.

Figure 3. Map of maximum radar reflectivity (dBZ) passing over any point accumulated for the period 2000 UTC on 21 June - 2300 UTC on 22 June, 1998. Early convection in NE Colorado became organized into an MCS that moved across Kansas until about 0700 UTC when a newer MCS developed ahead of the older one and continued eastward.

Trier and Davis completed an observational study of a serial mesoscale convective system (MCS) on 27-29 May 1998, that possessed a persistent mesoscale convectively generated vortex (MCV). Through novel trajectory diagnostics applied to Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) analysis output, they demonstrated that balanced lifting, resulting from the interaction of the MCV with the ambient vertical shear, contributed in large part to the thermodynamic destabilization that allowed the redevelopment of deep convection within the multi-day MCS/MCV event. The portion of the vortex located within the lower troposphere intensified during nocturnal episodes of organized MCS activity. This appeared to aid in the horizontal transport of conditionally unstable air toward the location deep convection. In these ways, the MCV was documented to be a crucial link between relatively quiescent periods characterized by balanced flow and intermittent periods of organized deep convection that produced flooding rains.

Using the MM5 model, Davis and Trier simulated the first full diurnal cycle of the May 1998 MCV/MCS. The simulation, initialized with a RUC analysis and nested to 1.5-km horizontal grid spacing over the area of convection, correctly reoriented convection from a north-south band to and east-west band overnight (see Figure 4) in response to northward transport of warm, conditionally unstable air within the nocturnal low-level jet. As in the RUC analyses, balanced vertical motion was found to contribute substantially to mesoscale lifting and thermodynamic destabilization, which localized the convection. Horizontal transport of moist, unstable air into the nocturnal convection was significantly modulated by the MCV. In contrast to other studies of MCVs, Davis and Trier found that the re-intensification of the MCV at night began in the lower troposphere with the formation of a line-end vortex on the northern end of the north-south oriented convective line. Intensification of the mid-tropospheric vortex followed in response to the development of a stratiform precipitation region (see Figure 5). Melting of hydrometeors appeared to contribute substantially to the development of the mid-level circulation.

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Figure 4. Observed NCEP hourly Stage-IV precipitation analysis and RUC 5 km-MSL wind analysis for (a) 0600 UTC 28 May 1998 and (b) 1200 UTC 28 May 1998. Predicted 5-km wind and hourly precipitation for a numerical simulation using the MM5 mesoscale model initialized with RUC analysis output at 1500 UTC 27 May for (c) 0300 UTC 28 May and (d) 0900 UTC 28 May 1998. Note that in both the observations and the simulation, the accumulated precipitation is valid for the 1-h period starting at the time of the wind analysis. The large arrows in panels (c) and (d) denote the direction of the 0.5 to 2.5 km MSL vertical shear vector. The vertical shear vector is influenced by the configuration of the midlevel vortex and lower-tropospheric jet, and itself influences the orientation of bands of intense convection within the mesoscale convective system.

Figure 5. Time-radius diagrams of azimuthal mean tangential wind and maximum rain water mixing ratio at 500 hPa (left panel) and 900 hPa (right panel). The vortex center is defined separately at each level. All quantities were computed on domain 2 (13.3 km grid spacing). Time=0 refers to the start of the simulation (1500 UTC 27 May, 1998).

(ii) Extension of the Two-Dimensional Climatology

David Ahijevych constructed Hovmoller diagrams for four warm seasons. He also computed radar-derived rainfall as a function of universal time and longitude for the 1997-2000 warm seasons and compared this to estimates obtained using different data sets.

Initial work on precipitation echo frequency was led by John Tuttle. Figure 6 is an animation of the July 1998 diurnal cycle of precipitation radar echo frequency. It reveals the monthly averaged genesis of convective systems over the western cordillera, propagation and regeneration of convection eastward and southward, and interaction with the Gulf of Mexico sea breeze initiated convection over the interior of the southeastern U.S.

Figure 6. July 1998 diurnal cycle of precipitation radar echo frequency. Frame 20 from an animation.

(iii) Website Database and Data Access

Upon acquiring a new web server, Ahijevych developed the Episodes Project web page found at http://locust.mmm.ucar.edu/episodes. He also developed web pages which allow researchers to peruse weather images dating back to May 1998, http://locust.mmm.ucar.edu/case-selection.

b) Squall lines

In earlier work, Richard Rotunno, Morris Weisman, and Joseph Klemp formulated a theory suggesting that squall line structure, strength and longevity was most sensitive to the magnitude of the component of low-level (0-3 km AGL) vertical wind shear perpendicular to squall line orientation. An "optimal" state was proposed whereby the deepest leading edge lifting and most effective convective re-triggering occurred when these circulations were in near balance. This state was based on the relative strength of the circulation associated with the storm-generated cold pool and the circulation associated with the ambient shear. Following this work, many subsequent studies have brought into question the relevance of such an optimal state to observed squall lines. They note the existence of strong, long-lived systems in sub-optimal conditions and they raise the question of the potential role of deeper-layer shears in promoting system strength and longevity in such situations. In an attempt to clarify these issues, Weisman and Rotunno have completed and analyzed an extensive set of simulations. They used both a simplified two-dimensional stream-function model and a full two-dimensional and three- dimensional cloud model, and they have been able to re-confirm the primary role of the low-level shear in controlling squall line structure and strength. They further clarify that a wider range of environments other than strictly "optimal" support significant squall lines in the simulations. This is also evident from observations.

Collaborations have continued with Jeff Trapp (visitor, NSSL) and Nolan Atkins (Lyndon State College) on the observation and simulation of tornadic circulations within quasi-linear convective systems such as squall lines and bow echoes. A set of idealized simulations have been completed that reproduce many of the characteristics of such systems, including the tendency for surface mesocyclones to develop north of the apex of the bow for environments of moderate to strong low-level environmental vertical wind shear. Analyses show that the initial source of these low-level circulations is the downward tilting of the horizontal vorticity associated with the cold pool-updraft interface, forced by the downdrafts of strong, short-lived convective cells near the leading edge of the systems. The actions of Coriolis forcing then promotes the strengthening and upscale growth of the cyclonic member of the tilted vortex couplet, producing a significant mesocyclone at the surface that could support the development of a tornado. This process appears quite distinct from that associated with supercell tornadoes, whereby a deep, quasi-steady, dynamically forced rotating updraft usually precedes the development of the tornado. Attempts are also underway to simulate observed systems to compare with the idealized cases.

c) Field experiments

Davis continued to lead the coordination of the Bow Echo and MCV Experiment (BAMEX), now scheduled for May 20 - July 6, 2003. BAMEX is a collaboration among PIs at NCAR, NSSL, NWS and several universities (UCLA, Texas A&M, Penn State, CSU and U of Alabama). The goals of this experiment are:

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(1) to obtain kinematic and thermodynamic documentation of the development of system-scale circulation features behind the leading convective line in maturing and decaying MCSs; (2) to understand mechanisms of convective regeneration near MCVs and the dynamics of MCV intensification that appear critical for multi-day events; (3) to understand the cause of damaging surface winds in bow echoes; and (4) to assess the predictability of long-lived MCSs and their effects on weather. The planned observing facilities include two Doppler P-3s, a dropsonde aircraft and a movable ground-based observing system consisting of two Doppler radars, wind profiler, acoustic sounder radiometer, mesonet and soundings. Please refer to http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/bamex/science.html for more information.

Tropical Cyclones

a) Development of Hurricane Diana (1984)

Christopher Davis and Lance Bosart (University at Albany, SUNY) continued their study of the formation of Hurricane Diana (1984) by examining the behavior of numerous sensitivity simulations. Development was dependent on a pre-existing upper-tropospheric trough-ridge couplet that focussed vertical motion, grid-resolved condensational heating, and lower- tropospheric potential vorticity anomalies that merged to form a tropical storm. Simulations with cumulus schemes that allowed more grid-scale precipitation on the 9-km grid exhibit unrealistic grid-scale overturning and slower intensification, primarily due to production of cyclonic vorticity anomalies at large radii. Use of an innermost nest with 3-km grid spacing, without a cumulus scheme, generally improved the intensity prediction. Storm track depended primarily on synoptic-scale structure at upper levels. Cumulus schemes that allowed more grid-scale overturning enhanced the anticyclonic outflow aloft. The outflow deformed the tropopause, building an anticyclone poleward of the storm and facilitating cut-off low formation equatorward of the storm. Using PV attribution, it was shown that these upper-level changes were responsible for an enhanced easterly steering flow and more westward storm track.

Jordan Powers and Davis extended the analysis and simulation of Diana using regional, cloud-resolving simulations from the MM5 model. The simulation consisted of a single domain of 1.2 km grid spacing and dimensions of 1000 x 1060 x 37, run on 552 processors of SCD’s IBM SP. For comparison purposes, 3-km and 9-km grid simulations have been performed. Simulations using 1.2 km and 3 km grid spacing showed markedly similar overall storm evolution, whereas the 9-km grid produced a storm with an unrealistically extensive circulation and no tight inner core. The higher-resolution simulations show Diana to develop, consistent with observation, in three distinct phases: initial MCS activity, quiescence and persistence of the incipient vortex, and convective regeneration and tropical cyclone formation (see Figure 7)

Figure 7. First frame from Hurricane Diana animation.

b) Simulation of Hurricane Danny (1997)

Ying-Hwa (Bill) Kuo, Wei Wang and Qinghong Zhang (ASP postdoctoral fellow) have performed a high-resolution numerical simulation of Hurricane Danny (1997) over a four-day period, from its genesis stage to its landfall. The simulation began at 0000 UTC 16 July 1997 when only a weak surface low was present over northern Gulf of Mexico. The PSU/NCAR MM5 model with triply-nested (81/27/9 km) grids was able to successfully simulate the development of a small tropical cyclone 72 h into the simulation, and its subsequent landfall over the Gulf coast. Subsequent numerical experiments at 3-km and 1-km grid resolution successfully captured interesting mesoscale structures of the storm, including the concentric eyewall, the eyewall replacement cycle and the trochoidal oscillations in storm track, as observed by the ground-based Doppler radars. Additional numerical experiments with 3-km and 1- km MM5 indicated that the simulation of the genesis of Danny was very sensitive to the choice of precipitation physics and planetary boundary parameterizations, and to the initial condition. The use of explicit cloud parameterization at cloud-resolving resolution (at least 3 km) is essential in simulating a realistic storm structure. Simulations with 9-km grid resolution using convective parameterization cannot properly reproduce the detailed storm structure as observed by the radars.

Orographics Precipitation

a) MAP

Richard Rotunno and R. Ferretti (University of L'Aquila, Italy) continued their analysis and simulation of Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP) cases. Although the large-scale flow was similar, important differences in mesoscale atmospheric structure made the difference between moderately intense rain in IOP2B, and relatively light rain in IOP8 of MAP. Rotunno and Ferretti have done a side-by-side analysis of these two cases with respect to precipitation, thermodynamic structure and wind. MM5 simulations of these cases agree well with the available data and, hence, provide a valuable interpretive tool. Analysis of the large-scale dynamics show that there was, in both cases, a moist tongue of southerly flow moving from west to east of the MAP area (northwestn Alps). The most important difference between the cases was the presence of a cold stable air mass in the Po Valley in IOP8, which persisted through the period in which the large-scale moist tongue was progressing eastward. The latter cold air mass prevented the most humid air from reaching the MAP area. Another important difference between the two cases occurred during the eastward passage of the cold front (the western boundary of the moist tongue) which is generally retarded at lower levels with respect to higher levels. In IOP2B this orographically induced differential advection of cold air produced strong conditional instability, and consequently, an additional episode of convective rain in the MAP area. In IOP8 the prefrontal air in the Po Valley was so cold that differential advection only reduced the already large static stability and, subsequently, there was no additional period of convective rain.

Cloud Microphysics and Precipitation

The Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Precipitation Experiment (STEPS) was held in Eastern Colorado and Western Kansas in May through July 2000 with the goal of better explaining the relationship between kinematics, precipitation production and electrical characteristics of convective storms on the High Plains. Morris Weisman and L. Jay Miller focused on the analysis and simulation of supercell storms observed on 29 June and 5 July, which exhibited differing precipitation characteristics. Miller and Sarah Tessendorf (SOARS and CSU graduate student) have completed preliminary dual-Doppler analyses of the high-precipitation tornadic storm observed on 29 June. These analyses reveal many of the characteristic kinematic features associated with supercell storms, including a strong, quasi-steady rotating updraft and associated bounded weak echo regions (BWER) during the storm's mature phase. But they also reveal a more complicated multiple updraft configuration during other periods in the storms lifetime. Miller's preliminary dual-Doppler analyses of a more nearly low-precipitation supercell storm observed on 5 July reveal a more unicellular rotating updraft, reaching magnitudes of over 60 m/s. Weisman's initial simulations of the 5 July storm have been successful at replicating many of the observed storm characteristics, offering much hope that simulations in conjunction with the observations will provide useful insights into the precipitation mechanisms associated with the STEPS storms. Such analyses will then be used to improve the microphysical representations within cloud scale simulations of such events.

Ice Crystals

In collaboration with Andrzej Wierzbicki (University of South Alabama, Mobile) and Richard Laursen (Boston University), Charles Knight completed the development and application of a new etching technique that reveals the crystal surface orientations at which biological adsorb to ice, and whether or not the adsorbate is engulfed within the ice during growth. (These "antifreeze" molecules are peptides that adsorb to ice and prevent ice growth from supercooled water by a kinetic mechanism that is, as yet, poorly understood.) A major new finding of the first application of this technique has been that there is a lot of such adsorption to ice such that the adsorbate is not engulfed in the ice as it grows, but presumably is pushed ahead, along with the moving interface. Many synthesized peptides have been characterized in terms of their effectiveness as antifreezes, but the results have been ambiguous because there are several potential reasons for the variability. This new method can be used to remove some of that ambiguity.

Knight, in collaboration with K. Rider (Colorado School of Mines) completed a study of the crystallization of a clathrate hydrate from its pure melt. The interest in and motivation of the study has been to explain the high variability of crystal habit, which appears to be neither an impurity effect nor a result of crystal imperfections, though it is difficult to prove the latter with certainty. It has thus been a fundamental difficulty in crystal growth theory, because there are no other known reasons for such a variability. The hydrate is a cubic, completely faceted material, with only (111) faces, which, at small sizes and over a substantial range of supercooling, may grow either slowly as octahedra, or much faster as thin plates, or thin needles. The growth manifestations and the ways in which the different forms are initiated are complicated, but it is argued that the growth mechanism is probably dominated by layer nucleation at the face corners. When the faces are small, asymmetry of the corners may lead to very different growth rates on adjacent but crystallographically equivalent faces, causing the plate and needle habits. The early portion of this work was done in collaboration with a group researching clathrate hydrates (especially methane hydrate) for the petroleum industry at the Colorado School of Mines.

3. Data Assimilation Research

The primary goal of mesoscale data assimilation research is to develop and support state-of-the-art data assimilation systems for application in high-resolution mesoscale models. These data assimilation systems can be used for a variety of purposes including the assimilation of data from new observing systems, the optimal use of observations, and understanding the observational requirements for accurate precipitation forecasts and optimal strategies for obtaining targeted observations.

a) Development of MM5 3DVAR system

Dale Barker, Yong-Run Guo, Wei Huang and Qingnong Xiao have continued to add additional capabilities to the MM5 3DVAR system. In collaboration with Francois Vandenberghe (NCAR/RAP) and Shu-Hua Chen (post-doc visitor, now University of California, Davis), the direct assimilation of SSM/I brightness temperature has been coded and initial tests have been performed. In order to run 3DVAR in any particular area of the globe, regional background error statistics are required. A system is under development that will interpolate background errors (calculated via the NMC-method of averaged forecast differences) to a chosen domain. The system will then rescale them based on regional/resolution dependent observation/forecast difference values. Al Bourgeois has been working on portability and initial parallelization of the MM5 3DVAR system using the MPP framework of the WRF model. The code now successfully runs on a variety of platforms including the DEC Alpha, SGI, PC/Linux, IBM-SP, Fujitsu and NEC-SX5. An initial subset of 3DVAR has been parallelized and tested. Multiple/single processor results have been shown to be bit-reproducible.

b) Real-data applications of MM5 3DVAR system

The MM5 3DVAR system has been run in real-time at NCAR since July 2001 for the 135/45 km domains of the AOAWS MM5 model for the Taiwanese Civil Aviation Administration (CAA). More recently, the system has been ported to the CAA Fujitsu VPP5000 and run in real-time. Real-time applications provide an opportunity to test the accuracy and robustness of the 3DVAR system prior to operational implementation in 2002. A project between MMM and the Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA) was initiated in 2001. The goal is the eventual implementation of 3DVAR in the KMA's MM5-based operational regional data assimilation and prediction system (RDAPS). Collaboration among Yong-Run Guo, Dale Barker and Dong-Hyun Shin (KMA) has so far resulted in the porting of 3DVAR to the NEC platform, calculation of background error statistics for the Korean domains (via the NMC-method) and initial case-study assimilation of South Korea's high-density automatic weather station (AWS) surface observation network.

c) Continued development of MM5 4DVAR system

The deployment of radar and satellite remote sensing systems offers great potential to improve numerical simulations of the weather by improving the initial state. There is a significant obstacle to the use of radar and satellite data because the quantities that can be measured by these instruments are not directly usable by the models and tend to be irregularly distributed in time and space. Four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) data assimilation allows these observations to be assimilated directly into the forecast model. However, a principle disadvantage of 4DVAR is its large computational requirement, due to the iterative nature of method and its heavy use of CPU and memory. This limitation has all but prohibited its use at operational weather forecasting centers, and previous experiments have been limited to very small domains or relatively coarse spatial resolutions. John Michalakes has begun a

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project, in collaboration with scientists at AER Inc., to produce a complete 4DVAR system optimized to run on highly-scalable distributed-memory parallel computers. The current MM5v3.4 forecast model will be the non-linear model in the new 4DVAR system. It is already coded to run efficiently on distributed memory multiprocessor machines. Developing the tangent-linear and adjoint models is accomplished with help from the automated Tangent-linear and Adjoint Compiler (TAMC) and by hand checking the results with visual comparisons the MM5v1 versions. The tangent-linear and adjoint models are then modified to run on distributed-memory multi-processor machines, using the parallelization techniques employed with the basic MM5 forward model. The project, funded by the DoD High Performance Computing Modernization Office, targets completion in January of 2003. At this time the new 4DVAR system will be made available to the MM5 user community and may also be implemented operationally at the Air Force Weather Agency. MMM expects follow-on work with AFRL to focus on WRF 4DVAR.

Yong-Run Guo and So-Young Ha (NCAR/ASP graduate student) have implemented several improvements to the current MM5 4DVAR system. These include: (1) compatibility with MM5 Version 3 for both input and output, (2) addition of a penalty term in the cost-function to control high-frequency oscillation, (3) portability of MM5 4DVAR system to Linux PC computing platform; and (4) compatibility of the new land-use category of the latest version of MM5 release. In addition, several bug-fixes have been released. These new improvements allow the existing MM5 4DVAR system to be compatible with the latest release of MM5, and also allow the MM5 4DVAR system to be operated on high-end linux PC systems. These improvements have been released to the MM5 user community.

d) Assessing the impact of lidar wind data

Dale Barker and Qinghong Zhang (NCAR/ASP postdoc) have begun to contribute to a NOAA-funded project to determine the potential benefits of a space-based wind-finding lidar for regional NWP. This work is a collaboration among FSL, ETL, NCEP and NCAR/MMM. Initial MMM work has been in the calibration of the 11-day trajectory of the MM5 forecast reference run (defined as truth) in the OSSE. Results indicate that this forecast is a reasonable source for the calculation of simulated observations for later assimilation.

e) Assimilation of land-surface data

Fei Chen (NCAR/RAP) and Kevin Manning implemented a high-resolution land data assimilation system for the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model, version 5 (MM5). This system is based on a land surface model currently used in MM5 but is run separately from the atmospheric model itself. The purpose of this "offline" implementation of a land surface model is to assimilate, over a significant period of time (several weeks or several months), observed quantities that drive soil moisture and temperature fields, especially observed fields of radiation and rainfall. The final fields of soil temperature and moisture, representing the assimilation of several weeks or months of data, may then be used as initial lower boundary conditions for the atmospheric model.

f) Data assimilation and forecasting on the convective scale

Juanzhen Sun and Andrew Crook have investigated the sensitivity of storm forecasts with respect to initial conditions obtained through the 4DVAR data assimilation technique. The goal of the sensitivity study is to investigate the features that must be retrieved in order to produce a good forecast and the data required to obtain such features. Both simulated and observed radar data have been used in this study. In the idealized study, a 4-hour simulation of a supercellular convective storm was performed using a sounding obtained during the CASES-97 experiment and a warm bubble initiation technique. This control simulation was used to generate single-Doppler radial velocity and reflectivity data at a frequency of five minutes, similar to WSR-88D data. These data are degraded with regard to coverage and quality and assimilated by the 4DVAR system to provide initial conditions for the subsequent forecast. The environmental wind and moisture were also varied to test the sensitivity of the storm forecast with respect to the environmental conditions. The sensitivity study was performed at the early-growth stage and the mature stage of the storm. The accuracy of the subsequent forecast was then evaluated by its correlation with the control simulation. There are three major findings in this study: 1) the forecast is very sensitive to low-level moisture at the early growth stage, but not as sensitive during the mature stage; 2) the radial velocity observations play a more important role than reflectivity in retrieving the low-level convergence, which is one of the key features in determining the forecast skill; and 3) the lack of low-level radar observations is more detrimental during the mature stage than during the growth phase. Figure 8 shows the rain-water correlation with respect to forecast time for five experiments during the growth phase.

Figure 8. Rain-water correlation with respect to forecast time for five experiments during the growth phase.

g) Radar data assimilation experiments

The simulated data experiments have shown that a successful short-term forecast of a supercell can be performed from initial conditions retrieved from simulated radar observations. To determine if this success carries over to real Doppler observations Sun and Crook have performed a number of tests using radar observations of a severe tornadic thunderstorm observed during the CASES-97 experiment. Reflectivity and radial velocity from successive five-minute scans were assimilated into a cloud model using the 4DVAR adjoint method. A number of assimilation and forecast experiments have been performed with varying large-scale conditions (shear and CAPE), assimilation length and microphysical parameters (rainwater fallspeed and evaporation rate). Their initial results suggest that the storm forecast is very sensitive to the large scale conditions as well as the parameterized evaporation rate. The parameterized evaporation allows for the retrieval of a cold pool at low levels.

Figure 9 shows a low level reflectivity observed by the Wichita WSR-88D radar over a two hour time period. Figure 10 shows a numerical forecast of the storm that successfully replicates the longevity and direction of propagation of the storm.

Figure 9. A low level reflectivity observed by the Wichita WSR-88D radar over a two hour time period. First frame of an animation (click on graphic to view AVI).

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Figure 10. A numerical forecast of the storm that successfully replicates the longevity and direction of propagation of the storm. First Frame of an animation (click on graphic to view AVI).

h) Influence of added observations on analysis and forecast errors

Rebecca Morss continued studying how adding observations to improve atmospheric analyses can influence errors in analyses and numerical forecasts. In collaboration with Kerry Emanuel (MIT), she used experiments with idealized data assimilation systems and forecast models to demonstrate why adding observations can degrade some analyses and forecasts, even with accurate observations and a perfect forecast model. She also identified several circumstances in which current data assimilation systems are more likely to use observational information to improve atmospheric analyses and forecasts.

i) Assimilation of GPS radio occultation sounding data

Ying-Hwa Kuo in collaboration with Tae-Kwon Wee (COSMIC postdoctoral fellow) has performed a set of observing system simulation experiments to assess the potential impact of GPS radio occultation soundings from a COSMIC-like constellation on the regional analysis and prediction over the Antarctic. They first performed a 30-km natural run over a 72-h period. The natural run was then used to generate potential GPS radio occultation soundings from the proposed COSMIC constellation, with realistic orbit parameters. This allowed the simulated soundings to have a realistic distribution in time and space. The simulated COSMIC soundings were then assimilated into a 120-km MM5 model. They showed that the COSMIC GPS radio occultation soundings could provide major improvement in the quality of regional meteorological analysis of the Antarctic. The improvement in the regional analysis would have a significant impact on the quality of regional weather prediction. Compared with earlier studies over the mid-latitudes, the impact over the Antarctic region is appreciably more significant. The relatively large impact of GPS radio occultation soundings is attributed to two major factors: (1) the Antarctic is a data sparse region of the world, and (2) the mass field (which is measured well by the GPS system) dominates the geostrophic adjustment process over high-latitudes.

4. Weather Research And Forecast (WRF) Model Development

The overall goal of the WRF Model project is to develop a next generation mesoscale forecast model and assimilation system that will advance both the understanding and prediction of important mesoscale weather, and promote closer ties between the research and operational forecasting communities. The model is being developed as a collaborative effort among the NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division (MMM), NCEP’s Environmental Modeling Center (EMC), FSL’s Forecast Research Division (FRD), the DoD Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), the Center for the Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) at the University of Oklahoma, and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), along with the participation of a number of university scientists. Primary funding for MMM participation in WRF is provided by the NSF/USWRP, AFWA, FAA and the DoD High Performance Modernization Office. With this model, we seek to improve the forecast accuracy of significant weather features across scales ranging from cloud to synoptic, with priority emphasis on horizontal grids of 1-10 kilometers. The model will incorporate advanced numerics and data assimilation techniques, multiple relocateable nesting capability and improved physics, particularly for treatment of convection and mesoscale precipitation systems. It will be well suited for a range of applications, from idealized research to operational forecasting, and have flexibility to accommodate future enhancements.

The WRF model has these desirable characteristics: It is designed to be highly modular, and a single source code will be maintained that can be configured for both research and operations. It will be state-of-the-art, transportable, and efficient in a massively parallel computing environment (accommodating vector environments as well). Data assimilation systems and adjoint and tangent linear forms (for 3DVAR analysis and 4DVAR assimilation) will be developed in tandem with the model itself. Numerous physics options will be allowed, thus tapping into the experience of the full modeling community. It will be maintained and supported as a community mesoscale model to facilitate broad use in research, particularly in the university community. Research advances will have a direct path to operations. With these hallmarks, the WRF model is unique in the history of numerical weather prediction in the U.S.

During the past year, the WRF system has advanced substantially, facilitated by real-time experimental forecasting and the community release of WRF for further evaluation and testing. When the WRF model becomes sufficiently mature to be used operationally, it is expected to (1) replace the Meso-Eta model for the operational Threats forecasts at NCEP, (2) replace the MM5 model for operational use by AFWA and (3) take on the function of rapid updating, now served by the RUC model.

a) WRF Model prototypes for integrating the dynamical equations

Recognizing the research focus within the WRF effort, alternative numerical techniques continue to be explored and adapted to the WRF framework to facilitate the comparative evaluation of their relative accuracy and efficiency in a controlled computational environment. Work has been progressing on three candidate prototype solvers; two of these prototypes are split-explicit Eulerian models based on mass and height vertical coordinates, respectively, while the third is a semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian formulation. Both the mass and height coordinate Eulerian are now available as run-time selectable cores within the WRF model framework.

During the past year, William Skamarock has implemented the Eulerian, split-explicit, flux-form, terrain-following mass coordinate prototype within the WRF model computational framework. The implementation includes 3rd order Runge Kutta (RK3) time integration methods that allow the use of high- order upwind advection operators and do not suffer from the large dispersion errors found in leapfrog schemes. The RK3 scheme, developed by Lou Wicker (NOAA/NSSL) and Skamarock, allows the use of both upwind (odd ordered) and centered (even ordered) high-order flux-divergence operators. It also exhibits low dispersion errors and allows a larger time step when used with either odd or even higher order advection operators. The RK3 scheme has been demonstrated to be robust and, as anticipated, the higher order schemes advection schemes are producing superior solutions at marginal resolution.

Both prototypes have been tested using idealized simulations of a variety of test cases covering a broad range of scales, including simulations of synoptic-scale baroclinic waves in a periodic channel with a 100-km horizontal grid and supercell thunderstorm evolution with a 1-km grid. These simulations and others are providing benchmarks for the WRF prototypes with published solutions from other models, and they demonstrate the robustness and accuracy of the new approaches used in the WRF prototypes. In order to provide an early capability to initialize the mass-coordinate version with real data, David Gill and Jimy Dudhia developed a converter program to interpolate the initial fields from the height coordinate provided by the Standard Initialization Package to the mass-coordinate grid.

Evaluation of idealized simulations has contributed to further improvements in the dynamic-model solver. In conducting mountain wave simulations Oliver Fuhrer (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich), encountered artificial disturbances over small-scale terrain in the community release of WRF, as well as in other models. Joseph Klemp and Skamarock demonstrated that these errors are contained in the linear system of equations, and explained their behavior through analytic solutions to the steady-state, finite-difference equations. Their analysis documents that these errors arise if the order of accuracy in computing the metric terms associated with the terrain following coordinates was not the same as the accuracy used for the horizontal advection. The numerics for the metric terms in the WRF code were modified to insure consistency in these calculations. Klemp and Skamarock also used idealized mountain-wave simulation to design and implement a new filter that selectively removes small scale external modes that can arise during startup in the mass-coordinate prototype over regions of significant terrain.

Development of the semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian prototype is being led by Jim Purser (NOAA/NCEP). Purser has developed a package of efficient compact or Pade schemes, and implemented them within the WRF framework. These methods attain a high formal order of accuracy for the spatial operations of differentiation and quadrature, and form an integral part of the high-order, conserving, cascade interpolations used in the grid-to-grid interpolations needed for the semi-Lagrangian calculations. Purser is also developing high order Runge-Kutta time integration methods for semi-implicit solvers, as well as a hybrid vertical coordinate, for the semi-Lagrangian prototype. The solver for this prototype is presently under development and will be evaluated in comparison with the Eulerian prototypes.

Also within the context of the WRF model solvers, Skamarock, Stan Benjamin (NOAA/Forecast Systems Laboratory), Riener Bleck (Los Alamos Laboratory) and Zuwen He (University of Miami) have been developing hybrid coordinate model formulations for the nonhydrostatic compressible equations. The hybrid coordinate takes the form of a terrain-following sigma-like coordinate near the surface and relaxes to an isentropic coordinate (or any other specified coordinate) aloft. Zuwen has developed an initial hybrid approach based on an explicit solution technique that splits the integration of the acoustic modes from the coordinate-surface movement. Successful simulations of baroclinic waves and mountain waves indicate that further testing with convection and nonhydrostatic phenomena is warranted.

b) WRF computational framework

The WRF project continues to play a role in the evolution of frameworks and component architectures for high-performance computing in the atmospheric sciences. The WRF-developed Advanced Scientific Framework, in addition to supporting rapid development and deployment of the WRF model itself, has been adapted to WRF and MM5 3DVAR by Al Bourgeois and to other non-WRF models, such as the NOAA/NCEP's non-hydrostatic Eta model (Tom Black, NOAA/NCEP). The WRF software architecture consists of three distinct model layers: a solver layer that is usually written by scientists, a driver layer that is responsible for allocating and deallocating space and controlling the integration sequence and I/O, and a mediation layer that glues these pieces together. It supports a multi-level approach to parallelism adaptable, without change to the source code, to single-processor, shared-memory, distributed-memory and hybrid-parallel systems. The WRF software framework also provides performance portability across micro- and vector-processors. A novel aspect of this modeling system is its use of a data registry. The data registry, designed and implemented by John Michalakes, is the single place where developers list model variables and their characteristics. The WRF project is represented on the NASA-funded Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) project to foster reuse and interoperability of software in the geosciences. Work is also underway to leverage developments at DOE, DoD and other institutions to extend WRF software for inter-model coupling.

In order to streamline the handling of I/O throughout the many components of the overall system, Michalakes, Leslie Hart and Jacques Middlecoff (both NOAA/FSL) and Dan McCormick (AFWA) have designed and implemented an I/O Application Program Interface (API) that provides a standard way of specifying and accessing data within the model that is independent of any particular I/O package. For the initial version of WRF, they are using the API to implement the model I/O based on the NetCDF format. Other data formats, such as HDF and GRIB, will be coupled to the I/O API as the code matures. At present, work is continuing to integrate the new I/O interface within the WRF software framework and refine the formats used for the NetCDF output files. Michalakes and Jim Tuccillo (IBM) have developed and implemented the NCEP asynchronous I/O capability called "quilting" into the WRF framework layer responsible for I/O. Quilting designates a number of additional I/O server processes to collect and write model output so that model integration can proceed with minimal interruption due to I/O. Quilting will be part of the WRF 1.2 community release.

The rapid pace of WRF-model development has been greatly facilitated by the modular, hierarchical WRF design. Demonstrating the effectiveness of the plug-compatible WRF model-layer interface and the WRF data registry, Shu-Hua Chen (visitor, AFWA), Jimy Dudhia, Wei Wang, and David Gill, have been able to incorporate numerous physics packages into WRF in remarkably little time. By adhering to the WRF interface specification and coding conventions, the physics packages are automatically interoperable over shared- and distributed-memory parallel computers. The WRF software framework also supports multiple dynamical cores, selectable at run-time. Current options are the two Eulerian dynamic-core prototypes: one a height-based and the other a mass-based vertical-coordinate formulation. The semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian core under development at NOAA/NCEP will be another option when it becomes available.

In addition to interoperability, the WRF software aims at high-performance over a range of computing architectures using a single maintainable source code. WRF is currently ported to and supported on IBM, Compaq, SGI, Sun and Fujitsu systems as well as Linux-clusters (both Intel- and Alpha-based). Evaluation of performance and optimization testing was presented to HPC Asia 2001, an international conference on high-performance computing in September, and this work is continuing. WRF was one of the performance benchmark applications in the recent acquisition of the NCAR Advanced Research Computing System. The WRF real-time forecast system shows good performance and scaling efficiency, running at up to 90 billion floating-point operations per second on the large NSF Terascale Computing System (a 6 Teraflop/second Compaq supercomputer installed late in 2001 at the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center). The test problem (see Figure 11) is a 12 km resolution 48-hour forecast over the Continental U.S. that captures the development of a strong baroclinic cyclone and a frontal boundary that extends from north to south across the entire U. S. This forecast executes in 10 minutes on 512 of the 3000 processors of the TCS, at a rate of almost 90 Gigaflop/second (not counting I/O time) (see Figure 12).

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Figure 11. 12 km resolution 48-hour U.S. forecast. Frame 39 of an animation (click on graphic to view AVI).

Figure 12. WRF 12 km CONUS on PSC TCS.

c) WRF model physics

Jimy Dudhia and Shu-Hua Chen (visitor, AFWA) have continued to collaborate in incorporating a variety of physics options within WRF. The latest packages include a microphysical option, a boundary-layer option, a radiation option from the current Eta model physics packages and a land-surface model very similar to that in the Eta model. Collaborators for these schemes were Tom Black (NCEP/EMC), Fei Chen and Hsiao-Ming Hsu (both NCAR/RAP). S.-H. Chen also generalized the physics interface to work with both the mass and height coordinate versions of the WRF dynamics. These schemes are being tested prior to implementation in the next release of WRF.

The WRF Land Surface Model is being developed by F. Chen, together with scientists at NCEP and AFWA, as part of a project to unify and extend versions of the OSU LSM currently used by NCAR, AFWA and NCEP. David Gill has worked with Dudhia, in collaboration with Brent Shaw and John Smart (both NOAA/FSL), to bring land-surface data into the WRF model to support the LSM. Meanwhile, F. Chen and Hsu, with the help of S.-H. Chen, have implemented the land-surface model into WRF. The land-surface model parameterizes soil moisture, snow cover, skin temperature and vegetation processes. Workshops on land-surface modeling to coordinate this unification effort were held at NCEP in October, 2000, and NCAR in August, 2001.

The development of WRF physics is an ongoing research effort that must rely significantly on community participation. Therefore, a standard physics interface has been designed in order to streamline participation in developing and adapting physics to WRF. In this interface, the model solver calls a generic driver for each class of physics, which in turn calls the specific desired package. Thus, user-developed packages plug into the physics driver through the standard interface, and remain isolated from the model solver.

d) WRF experimental real-time forecasting

A major effort undertaken this past year has been the testing of both the height and mass coordinate WRF prototypes in real-time NWP applications. The real-time forecasting experiments are important in at least two aspects. First, they allow the new model to be evaluated under a large number of weather regimes, and synoptic conditions. These forecasts allow the development team to examine the model performance daily and detect any systematic problem. Second, they provide a test bed to test the new model's robustness under various weather conditions. Wei Wang began running the height coordinate model twice daily at NCAR since December, 2000. She began initially with a 30-km horizontal resolution CONUS (Continental U.S.) grid and later a 22-km CONUS grid (a grid similar to that in operational Eta model from NCEP before November, 2001). This prototype is also run daily on a 10-km grid over the Central U. S. The mass coordinate WRF model prototype has been run in real-time configuration since late August, 2001 on a 22-km CONUS grid. All model runs are initialized with Eta model data. Verification of the quantitative precipitation in these forecasts has been provided by Mike Baldwin (NOAA/NSSL/SPC) and compared to forecasts from the NCEP Eta model, an NSSL modified Eta model, the NCAR MM5 model and an NSSL WRF model (Jack Kain, NSSL). These comparisons are displayed on the NSSL Web site, http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/etakf/qpfplots/, and have been very useful for identifying and solving initial problems with the microphysics in real-data applications (see Figure 13).

Figure 13. 36 hour Precipitation Forecast. Valid 12Z 12 June 2001, 24 hour accumulation.

They have also served as a valuable tool in validating the newer mass dynamical core, and allowed the development team to detect and correct some subtle problems in the mass-version dynamics. The height and mass versions are now producing very comparable forecasts (see Fig. 14). Mike McAtee (AFWA) has also been running real-time WRF forecasts for Air Force theatres and validating results against surface and sounding data. All the real-time WRF forecasts are linked from the WRF Web pages, http://wrf-model.org/REAL_TIME/real_time.html.

Figure 14. Tropical Storm "Barry": 48 h sea level pressure & precipitation. Verifying at 0000 UTC August 6 2001.

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e) WRF case-study evaluation and testing

One of the primary objectives of the WRF developmental effort is to improve our ability to represent and forecast convective systems in the 6-12 hour time frame. The success of such an effort depends on many factors, including the use of sufficient resolution to represent the convective processes, accurately representing the mesoscale environment of the convective system, and appropriately forecasting the timing and location of significant convective triggering. As an important step in testing WRF’s abilities in this regard, an effort has begun to simulate and forecast significant convective outbreaks. An example is presented here from 11 June 2001. A severe convective system was spawned over western Minnesota early in the afternoon and organized into a large, bow-echo squall line with a dominant cyclonic mesoscale convective vortex in southeastern Wisconsin and northern Illinois that evening. This storm produced widespread wind damage and creating large disruptions in air travel. Real-time 30-km grid forecasts, however, merely indicated the potential for heavy rainfall over an area much broader than the observed event (see Figure 13). Morris Weisman and Wei Wang conducted a 16-hr, 4-km grid simulation with the WRF model initiated at 12 GMT, which forecast the structure, propagation and intensity of this system amazingly well, despite some errors in the timing and location of the initial convective triggering (see Figure 15). Such results offer hope that enhanced resolution can improve the short-term prediction of such significant convective events in meaningful ways.

Figure 15. Precipitation at 04Z 12 June 2001.

Stanley Trier and Christopher Davis have begun to develop a suite of test cases over a broad range of meteorological regimes, which both WRF developers and the community can use to better understand the sensitivities of the model. The emphasis in this work has been on selecting observed cases that encompass a wide variety of meteorological regimes, and examining model sensitivities, such as resolution and physical parameterizations (e.g., PBL, cumulus and microphysical schemes) in these cases. These observed cases augment a preexisting set of idealized cases (e.g., supercell thunderstorms, squall lines, 2-D mountain-wave flow). The most detailed examination of model performance and sensitivities for these observed cases has been for simulations of a multi-day episode of organized convection (27-29 May 1998), and a shallow arctic cold front (10-12 December 2000) confined to the locations east of the continental divide. The WRF simulations captured the essence of these meteorologically diverse phenomena and compared favorably with similar simulations using other models (e.g., ETA, MM5). Despite the overall success of these simulations, there were significant errors in important details (in all of the models), including the magnitude of the precipitation in the 27-29 May case and the speed and intensity of the arctic front (particularly near the Continental Divide) on day two of that simulation. The magnitude of such errors were found to be sensitive to model configurations and parameters, such as cumulus schemes (27-29 May) and horizontal resolution (10-12 December). Ongoing and future work comprises an examination of WRF simulations of additional observed cases, including a rapidly deepening midlatitude cyclone, a tropical cyclone and orographically forced precipitation.

f) WRF model data assimilation

In May, 2001, the MM5 3DVAR system was chosen as the starting point for initial data assimilation capabilities of the WRF 3DVAR. Since that time, collaborators at NCEP (Derber, Wu), FSL (Devenyi), AFWA (McAtee) and CAPS (Xue, Gao) have begun work on the inclusion of additional capabilities. As part of these efforts, Wu has added the capability to read observational data files in BUFR format. Barker has modified the grid staggering in the 3DVAR system from the Arakawa B-grid of MM5 to an unstaggered grid, which has chosen for WRF 3DVAR for generality and simplicity. Bourgeois has modified the WRF software framework to accommodate the WRF 3DVAR and has extended the framework’s capabilities to provide parallelism for the 3DVAR code, both for WRF and MM5 applications. All MM5 3DVAR applications have now adopted the WRF 3DVAR system, allowing MMM 3DVAR efforts to concentrate on a single data-assimilation system. The first release of a basic version of the WRF 3DVAR, coupled to the WRF forecast model, is expected around the end of calendar year 2001.

g) First WRF model release to community

Some of the priority objectives of the WRF project are to make the model and ancillary programs available to the broader research community, to facilitate use of the model in a wide variety of applications, and to solicit participation from the research community in the continuing evolution of the model. Specific tasks within MMM, therefore, include maintenance of up-to-date code, distribution of code, aiding in documentation of the modeling system, maintenance of WRF Web sites and mailing lists, provision of a user support e-mail address, distribution of WRF announcements and organization of WRF workshops and tutorials.

Joseph Klemp, William Skamarock, John Michalakes, Jimy Dudhia, Shu-Hua Chen, David Gill and Wei Wang, in cooperation with WRF developers at NOAA/FSL, released WRF Version 1.0 in December, 2000, followed by Version 1.1 in May, 2001. For these releases, a Web site for registering as a WRF user and downloading code has been provided. The primary supported programs are the model itself and the Standard Initialization. MMM also provides a converter from MM5 input to WRF input and some graphics capabilities with NCL and Vis5d. The user support e-mail address ([email protected] or [email protected]) has been established for user questions.

This first release integrates the fully compressible nonhydrostatic equations in scalar-conserving flux form using a time-split small step for acoustic modes. Large time steps utilize the Runge-Kutta techniques discussed above and 2nd to 6th order advection operators can be specified. The vertical coordinate is a terrain following height coordinate that allows variable resolution with height. It is initially a single domain version and contains map-scale factors for conformal projections. The model code is written in standard Fortran 90 and is self-contained. It will run in parallel on both shared-memory and distributed memory platforms. The model can be configured to run either idealized or real data simulations. For idealized simulations, periodic, symmetric or open radiative lateral boundary conditions are available. For real-data cases, initial fields are interpolated from GRIB or MM5 files, and model physics can be selected from the above-mentioned options. Lateral boundary conditions are specified and merged to the interior with a relaxation zone.

During FY01, 375 users registered to download the WRF-Model code, distributed broadly among WRF principal partners, U. S. universities and government labs, the private sector and foreign institutions. In August, 2001, MMM organized and hosted the Second Annual WRF Users Workshop (115 participants) together with a WRF Users Tutorial (80 participants).

h) WRF project management

In the cooperative development of a complex forecast-model system, care must be taken to insure an orderly process in which the various major components are developed in a consistent fashion and integrated effectively into the overall design. Toward these ends, a Management Plan for the WRF Project was developed by the principal WRF partners and approved by the Interagency Working Group (IWG) of the U.S. Weather Research Program. This Plan established a WRF Oversight Board (Robert Gall as member) that is responsible for overall supervision of the WRF Project. The Plan also includes a WRF Science Board (Jimy Dudhia as member) that provides technical guidance to help WRF meet the needs of a broad user community, and WRF Development Teams that design and implement the various components of the overall WRF system. The WRF Coordinator (Klemp), together with the Development Team Leaders (including Joseph Klemp and Ying-Hwa Kuo), oversees the development efforts to ensure that the overall design goals are achieved and that milestones are accomplished on schedule. To provide specific focus on the major tasks within the development-team areas, approximately 15 WRF Working Groups have been created (including William Skamarock, John Michalakes, Dale Barker, Jimy Dudhia, and Tim Spangler of COMET as Group Leaders).

The WRF Oversight Board met in January to address funding commitments to WRF, and the WRF Science Board met in August, following the Users Workshop, to discuss priorities for development activities. The WRF development teams held planning workshops in February (Washington D. C.) and August (Boulder) to review the status of development efforts, and refine the plans and schedules for future work.

Further information on the WRF project, experimental real-time forecasts and the community-model release is available on the WRF web site, http://wrf-model.org/.

B. Cloud and Surface Processes and Parameterizations (CaSPP) Program

One of the two primary scientific programs in the MMM division is the Cloud and Surface Processes and Parameterizations (CaSSP) Program. The main goals of this program are to quantify the large-scale effects of mesoscale and microscale processes and to develop physically based methods to account for these effects in large-scale models. Until this is done, predictions from large-scale models - including both weather forecasts and forecasts of climate change - will be of limited accuracy. The emphasis within MMM is on understanding how the atmosphere, land and ocean surface and hydrological processes interact, and how these processes can be quantified. This effort includes five key research areas: deep convective cloud systems, microphysics, boundary-layer clouds, surface-atmosphere interactions and the physical chemistry of clouds. Two important components of this effort are nonhydrostatic fine-scale (large-eddy simulation, and cloud-resolving) models. These allow high-resolution definition of the mesoscale and microscale systems involved and are therefore useful for testing methods to quantify the effects of these processes on larger scales. Critical for the success of this program is the evaluation of these models against detailed observational studies of the underlying physical processes. The program contributes to the objectives of the WCRP Global Energy and Water-cycle Experiment (GEWEX) and the Cloud System Study (GCSS) component of GEWEX as well as to the objectives of USWRP.

1. Deep Convective Systems

a) MJO-like structures in idealized aquaplanet simulations

Wojciech Grabowski investigated interactions between equatorially trapped disturbances and tropical convection. He is using the nonhydrostatic global model (developed by Piotr Smolarkiewicz and collaborators) and the cloud-resolving convection parameterization (CRCP), which represent subgrid scales by embedding a 2D cloud-resolving model in each column of the global model. The model setup in the "super-parameterization" is a constant SST aqua-planet integrated to radiative-convective equilibrium. The cloud-resolving models are aligned along the east-west direction and allow for coupling of thermo­dynamic variables and zonal momentum. Spontaneous formation of coherent structures with deep convection on the leading edge and strong surface westerly winds to the west (the westerly wind bursts) occur within the equatorial wave-guide (see Figure 16).

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Figure 16. Surface precipitation and east-west flow in a simulation with convective-radiative equilibrium on a constant-SST aquaplanet with interactive radiation (click on graphic to view animation).

These coherent structures, which resemble the observed Madden-Julian Oscillations (MJO), occur in simulations with prescribed radiative cooling, interactive radiation, various orientations of CRCP domains (east-west versus north-south) and various horizontal resolutions of the global model. Interactive surface fluxes seem to be essential for the development, but not the maintenance, of strong MJO-like structures.

Mitchell Moncrieff began an analytic study of the time-averaged MJO based on nonlinear conservation properties of the steady-state Lagrangian equations of motion and thermodynamics. Two primary interacting scales have been identified, namely, a Rossby gyre circulation on an equatorial beta-plane and organized deep convection. Early results give a dynamical interpretation of the equatorial super-rotation that occurred in Grabowski's simulation, as well as the momentum transport properties of the gyre circulation and the organized convection.

b) Multi-scale organization of convection and intraseasonal tropical variability

Wojciech Grabowski and Mitchell Moncrieff investigated the large-scale organization of tropical convection in idealized two-dimensional (x-z) cloud-resolving simulations, using a periodic global-scale domain (20,000 km) and a horizontally homogeneous SST. Two sets of simulations were performed. One used prescribed radiative cooling, and the other included cloud-radiation interaction.

With prescribed radiation, simulated mesoscale organized convective systems several hundred kilometers in scale moved east-to-west at approximately the mean-wind speed (Figure 17). These systems are embedded within west-to-east propagating envelopes of convection several thousand kilometers in scale, whose propagation speeds resemble observed convectively coupled Kelvin waves. Convective momentum transport and the impact of convective systems on the temperature and moisture near the surface are key processes responsible for the large-scale organization of convection. With cloud- interactive radiation, an additional mechanism of organization occurs: large-scale, long-lived convective clusters occur within the ascending branches of weak overturning circulations that are steered by the mean wind. These circulations are a large-scale baroclinic response to horizontal gradients of radiative heating between the moist and dry regions. The robustness of these results is demonstrated by sensitivity tests using different radiation transfer models and microphysical parameterizations, as well as the effects of wind shear.

Figure 17. Simulated Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS). a) Westward-traveling MCS, strong, localized leading convection, weaker extensive trailing stratiform region; b) Horizontal relative velocity perturbation shows a classic strong rear inflow & outflow dipole (viz., the distinctive momentum transport); c:) Latent heating shows two strong peaks (leading line and rearward secondary system) with a weak stratiform component.

c) Multi-scale anelastic model for atmospheric research

Wojciech Grabowski and Piotr Smolarkiewicz completed a basic nonhydrostatic anelastic numerical model for simulating moist atmospheric processes on small to planetary scales. The formulation of moist thermodynamics follows standard cloud models, i.e., it explicitly treats the formation of cloud condensate and the subsequent development and fallout of precipitation. In order to accommodate a broad range of temporal scales, the customized numerical algorithm merges the explicit scheme for the thermodynamics with the semi-implicit scheme for the dynamics, where the latter is essential for the computational efficiency of the global model. The coarse spatial resolutions used in present global models result in a disparity between the time scales of the fluid flow and the much shorter time scales associated with phase-change processes and precipitation fallout. To overcome this difficulty an approach based on the method of averages is used, namely, fast processes are evaluated using small time steps. This provides an accurate approximation to the large-time-step integral of fast forcing in a stiff system. This approach allows for stable integrations when cloud processes are poorly resolved and converges to the formulation standard in cloud models as the resolution increases. The theoretical developments were tested in simulations of small-, meso- and planetary-scale idealized moist atmospheric flows. Results from the small-scale simulations demonstrate that the approach compares favorably with traditional explicit techniques used in cloud models. Planetary simulations, on the other hand, illustrate an ability to capture moist processes in low-resolution large-scale flows.

d) A numerical study of the inter-tropical convergence zone

Changhai Liu and Mitchell Moncrieff examined convective structures on an equatorial beta plane in a two-dimensional numerical model forced by constant sea surface temperature and by horizontally homogeneous radiative cooling. Two distinct patterns of spatial distribution of convective activities in the tropics were identified. The first is enhanced off-equator convection in the form of a double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The second was characterized by a single ITCZ on the equator subsequent to quasi-equilibrium being established. Three new physical mechanisms for the ITCZ were identified. First, wind-induced surface flux variations played a vital role in the formation of the single ITCZ centered on the equator. Second, enhanced low-level convergence by planetary rotation, a response to convective heating, favored an ITCZ further from the equator. Third, Coriolis-induced trapping of convection-generated subsidence warming and drying preferred an ITCZ on the equator. The last two opposing dynamical processes compromised as a double ITCZ. This work may help in understanding why global models have difficulty in obtaining realistic ITCZs.

e) Persistence and clustering of convection

Changhai Liu and Mitchell Moncrieff conducted a two-dimensional numerical investigation into the role of planetary rotation in regulating the nonlinear response of a stratified fluid to steady slab-symmetric thermal forcing. Four kinds of vertical heating profiles mimicking various convectively generated diabatic heating were used. The Coriolis force traps the subsidence-induced adiabatic warming surrounding the heated region. Consequently, the neighborhood of the heat source (active convective area) in a moist atmosphere undergoes enhanced stabilization and drying. This region is thus unfavorable to convection initiation and development. This is a process demonstrated by two-dimensional cloud-resolving simulations of convective systems on f-planes maintained by a constant radiative cooling and surface fluxes of sensible heat and moisture. It is consistent with the observations that convection is more clumped and gregarious in the tropics than in higher latitudes.

f) Multi-day simulations of cloud systems in SCSMEX

Changhai Liu and Mitchell Moncrieff performed two-dimensional cloud-resolving numerical simulations of the evolution of convective cloud systems during the 12-day period from 30 May through 10 June, 1998 in SCSMEX. The analysis of the modeling results indicated that the observed evolving convective systems, evolving thermodynamic fields and evolving surface precipitation were reasonably reproduced. More evaluation of the simulation results against observations and detailed analysis of the model-generated cloud systems, such as radiative fields, surface fluxes, precipitation, thermodynamic budgets, latent heating profiles, condensate distribution, cloud amount, convective mass fluxes and convective organizations, are under way. Sounding data sets were obtained from Richard Johnson and Paul Cieleiski (CSU).

g) Simulations of quasi-stationary convection in TRMM-LBA

Changhai Liu and Mitchell Moncrieff simulated a continental tropical mesoscale convective band observed during TRMM-LBA. In contrast to widely studied mesoscale convective systems, this one occurred in a very shallow sheared environment and was short-lived and likely initiated by the thermal forcing in the planetary boundary layer. Many features of the observed system were simulated, such as the precipitation pattern, life cycles, convective line orientation and propagation behavior (see Figure 18). Sensitivity experiments indicated that the dynamical influence of ice-phase microphysics was minor for the generation of the convective band, but it was important in the late evolution stage. Sounding data sets were obtained from Steven Rutledge, Walt Peterson and Bob Cifelli (Colorado State University).

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Figure 18. a) A time series of radar images showing the observed evolution of the quasi-stationary convective line; b) Snapshots of the numerically simulated surface precipitation rate. The yellow, purple and red color show rainfall intensity larger than 0.1, 1 and 10 mm/hr, respectively; c) Same as B), but for an ice-free simulation.

h) Convective momentum transport

Xiaoqing Wu and Mitchell Moncrieff, collaborating with Guangjun Zhang (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) have begun a study of momentum transport by tropical convective systems simulated by a cloud-resolving model. Early results show that both linear and nonlinear contributions to the perturbation pressure field make significant contributions to momentum transport, especially in sheared conditions. Nonlinear terms are generally opposite in sign to the linear ones but of smaller magnitude. The thermodynamic forcing resulting from the buoyancy field within convective updrafts also contributes to the horizontal pressure gradient force across the updrafts. But compared to updrafts, the momentum transport by downdrafts is insignificant.

Wu and Fuqing Zhang (USWRP postdoc, now Texas A&M University) used three-dimensional (3D) cloud-resolving simulations of GATE cloud systems to evaluate two convective momentum parameterization schemes. Using the same large-scale conditions, the Wu and Yanai scheme and the Zhang and Cho scheme reproduced the apparent momentum source obtained from the CRM. The inclusion of cloud-scale pressure gradient in both schemes has a large impact on the in-cloud momentum and the parameterized apparent momentum source, especially in the upper troposphere. The agreement between the CRM-produced and parameterized cloud mass flux contributes to this success.

Wu, Moncrieff and Zhang, in collaboration with Xinzhong Liang (University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign), incorporated the above convective momentum parameterization scheme in the NCAR Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3). The 20-year simulation (1979 - 1998) shows a strong impact of convective momentum transport on the ITCZ. Also, the global precipitation distribution is closer to the observed distribution than the control CCM3 simulation.

i) Statistical representation of clouds and convective mean fluxes

Xiaoqing Wu and Mitchell Moncrieff previously demonstrated that the parameterization of cloud condensate and cloud fraction in the cloud scheme and the representation of cloud geometric association and inhomogeneity in the radiation scheme need to be improved in order to achieve an accurate energy budget. In a follow-up study, Enrica Bellone (NCAR/GSP), collaborating with Wu, Moncrieff, Doug Nychka (NCAR/GSP) and Bill Collins (NCAR/CGD), are using CRM data to study the impact of vertical cloud overlap assumptions on the radiation fluxes. A first step toward statistical representations of CRM output for sub-grid scale parameterizations processes is to treat clouds at different vertical levels as a Markov chain. The probability of cloud occurrence at a level immediately below is then estimated subject to additional hypotheses; for example, on wind profiles, rainfall intensity, etc.

Philippe Naveau (Institute Pierre Simon Laplace, Laboratorie de Meteorologie Dynamique, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris, France) and Moncrieff completed a statistically based formulation of convective mass fluxes in cloud-resolving simulations of squall lines and non-squall systems. They used extreme-value theory in their statistical formulation that distinguishes between mass fluxes in the convective and stratiform regions of cloud systems. The statistical approach was validated against the mass fluxes obtained explicitly from the cloud-resolving simulations.

j) New all-scale nonhydrostatic anelastic NFT model

Based on the existing EULAG mesoscale model and the adaptive-grid version of the global nonhydrostatic model EULAS, Piotr Smolarkiewicz has developed a new unified nonoscillatory-forward-in-time (NFT) adaptive-grid anelastic nonhydrostatic model code that covers all scales of motion from micro- to planetary. This new model is highly flexible, state-of-the-art in geophysical computational fluid dynamics, and capable of addressing a wide range of problems in geophysical research. The key advance that facilitated the unification of EULAG and EULAS, was treating the singularities at the Poles by posing Neuman conditions on a small circle around each Pole. This will dramatically improve communications in the massively parallel variant of the numerical code. The new unified model has been tested on multi-scale problems, such as micro-scale turbulence, Earth climate and Solar convection. This multi- scale, multi-purpose simulation system is becoming widely used.

k) Adaptive-grid global model

Joseph Prusa (Iowa State University) and Piotr Smolarkiewicz continued development and testing of an adaptive grid-refinement approach for the nonoscillatory forward-in-time (NFT), anelastic nonhydrostatic, multiscale model for meteorological research (MMMR). The approach is based upon the use of generalized coordinates and their efficient numerical coding in a generic Eulerian/semi-Lagrangian NFT format. During the past year, several time adaptive stretching methods have been designed and tested. A divergence-free form of continuity - central to the efficiency of the conjugate residual elliptic solver in MMMR - was developed that is applicable to a wide range of problems. This development makes the use of MMMR possible in an equally wide range of applications. The time-adaptive transformations were tested in a mesoscale scenario and, especially, in a series of idealized climate simulations. Two versions, i) an equatorially enhancing meridional stretch, and ii) a bi-latitudinal, meridional stretch with maximum resolution at mid-latitudes, were tested, and the results compared against coarse- and fine-resolution, uniform grid results. The time adaptations were run over several specified periods, during which the coordinates changed from a uniform spherical system to a meridionally stretched one. Corresponding maximum transformed coordinate speeds (grid speeds) ranged from 1 to 15 m/s, the latter fast enough to adapt over 1000 km per day. Details of the climate simulations illustrated that the meridionally stretched cases showed some solution details with accuracy similar to that of the fine-resolution, uniform grid result. But enhanced results do not appear uniformly for all flow variables. This suggests that more sophisticated, self-adaptive coordinate transformations may be required.

l) Time-dependent curvilinear upper boundaries for meteorological models

Nils Wedi (ECMWF) and Piotr Smolarkiewicz developed an extension of the classical terrain-following coordinate transformation of Gal-Chen and Somerville (1975). This which accounts for a time-dependent curvilinear upper boundary in meteorological models formulated in a linear vertical coordinate. The derived mathematical framework has been implemented in the all-scale nonhydrostatic anelastic NFT model EULAG (see Figure 19). This development enables a thorough study of the impact of upper boundary conditions on the internal flows. For example, it allows for a direct comparison of Neumann and Dirichlet pressure boundary conditions, typically associated with rigid-lid and free-surface upper boundaries, within a single nonhydrostatic model code. The latter is essential as it eliminates uncertainties associated with differences in analytic/numerical formulations of various meteorological models with different upper boundary conditions. Aside from purely theoretical interests, this work appears to offer numerous benefits for practical applications. For example, it facilitates nesting tropospheric small-scale nonhydrostatic cloud models with large-scale hydrostatic isentropic/isobaric deep stratospheric models. Another example would be how it facilitates incorporating tidal cycle in ocean models with rigid upper boundary. Up to date, Wedi and Smolarkiewicz have performed a series of idealized Boussinesq-flow studies to address the impact of the upper boundary. One interesting finding is that accurate prediction of the shape of a material Neumann boundary may suffice to prevent/mitigate spurious reflections of gravity waves - notorious in atmospheric models.

Figure 19. Frame 33 of an animation (click on graphic to view animation).

m) Large-eddy simulation using nonoscillatory differencing

Len Margolin (Los Alamos National Laboratory) and Piotr Smolarkiewicz continued their long-term study of implicit turbulence modeling properties of nonoscillatory solvers, which have demonstrated capability for simulating turbulent flows. An important result is that implicit turbulence modeling is free of unphysical parameters, which implies a significant increase in predictability. Another advantage important for applications lies in the simplicity and computational efficiency of the approach. By comparing with pseudo-spectral simulations of 3D periodic turbulence (accepted as the most accurate tool for direct numerical simulation of low Reynolds number flow), Margolin and Smolarkiewicz validated the accuracy and demonstrated the computational efficiency of the EULAG code (see Figure 20). They also analyzed large eddy simulations in the limit of very high Reynolds number, a regime in which the pseudospectral code cannot operate. They demonstrated convergence for energy spectra at two limits - as resolution is increased and as viscosity is decreased. They developed a theory that quantifies their resolution study and leads to the prediction of an asymptotic spectrum.

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Figure 20

n) Spurious vortical structures in under-resolved simulation

Dimitris Drikakis (Queen Mary, University of London), Margolin (Los Alamos National Laboratory) and Piotr Smolarkiewicz continued their investigation of the formation of spurious vortical structures in incompressible flow simulations. Recently several papers have appeared in the computational fluid dynamics literature, proposing an idealized instability problem as a benchmark for discriminating among numerical algorithms for two-dimensional Navier-Stokes flows. The problem is a double shear layer simulated at coarse resolution and with prescribed interface perturbation. A variety of second-order accurate schemes were tested. Results fell into one of two solution patterns - one with two eddies (the accepted correct solution) and the other with three eddies (see Figure 21). They draw the following conclusions. First, the third eddy is a product of truncation error details. Second, the three-eddy solution is the more physically realizable. And finally, this problem is a poor choice of benchmark to discriminate among numerical algorithms.

Figure 21

o) 3D instabilities of counter-rotating vortices

Andreas Dornbrack (DLR), Joseph Prusa (Iowa State University) and Piotr Smolarkiewicz continued their study of three-dimensional instabilities of counter-rotating vortices that occur in the wake of aircraft. This past year they performed a series of two- and three-dimensional numerical simulations of vortex decay. Effort was concentrated on the application of mesh refinement techniques in nonoscillatory forward-in-time schemes for the proper resolution of the vortex core. In particular, they validated the numerical model by comparing the two-dimensional simulation results with analytical solutions for the viscous decay of a single Rankine and Lamb-Oseen vortex. For a further examination of the model, they compared numerical simulations with recent experimental results of Leweke and Williamson (1998) who investigated the three-dimensional instability of a counter-rotating vortex pair to short waves. The present three-dimensional simulations of the vortex decay agree very well with the measurements. In addition to the model validation study, numerical simulations have been extended to establish the Reynolds number dependence of the simulated structures. Another series of runs tested the numerical scheme using dynamic grid adaptation that allows the computational grid to deform, to follow features of interest in an evolving solution (see Figure 22). Simulations with stationary grids for two-dimensional vortex decay indicate that an adequate resolution of wake vortex cores in the atmosphere with minimized overall computational effort is possible with this technique.

Figure 22. Small-scale elliptical instability of a counter-rotating vortex pair as observed in the water tank (a-c) and simulated with EULAG (A-C) in different perspectives after an evolution period of 10s. The shaded regions depict the vortex cores derived from visualization (a-c) and from the second eigenvalue of the deformation tensor (A-C). The simulation with 161X481X161 grid cells and a spatial resolution of 0.00125m was performed at a Reynolds number of Re=4032.

p) Propagation and breaking of coastal solitons

This study is collaborative among researchers from NRL (A. Warn-Varnas, S. Chin-Bing, D. King, E. Salusti, S. Piacsek and J. Hawkins) and Smolarkiewicz. Synthetic aparture radar (SAR) images, towed measurements, and conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) casts from the JANE1984 cruise taken in the Gulf of Gioia around Cape Vaticano show the presence of an oceanic cold front. A hypothesis for its genesis is the breaking of internal tidal-generated solitons. This hypothesis was tested using the Boussinesq option of EULAG. An analysis of the energy distribution in presence of solitons among the acoustical normal modes and bottom loss was performed. Transmission loss patterns were established for diverse conditions. Simulations indicate that small spatial changes in the soliton field can have a pronounced effect on the acoustic propagation. The solitons produce acoustic mode coupling that can combine with the ocean-bottom acoustic mode to significantly affect the acoustic signal.

q) A viscoelastic fluid model for brain injuries

Piotr Smolarkiewicz, Igor Szczyrba (University of Northern Colorado), and Christopher Cotter (Cheshire Cat Computers, Inc.) further advanced their biomechanical modeling of brain injuries. Due to its elasticity, brain material can support shear (equivoluminal) waves. Earlier attempts to explain certain brain injuries via arguments of the classical theory of viscoelasticity exploited the Voigt model - a linear system of differential equations where the motion of the brain tissue depends merely on the balance between viscous and elastic forces. But Voigt model solutions have limited realism. For example, they evince strongly localized displacements of the brain tissue. The Voigt model was extended to a nonlinear viscoelastic fluid model. The resulting non-Newtonian fluid model permits nonlinear wave-front steepening, wave overturning and turbulent breaking. The numerical procedure was validated against small-perturbation linear theory and known Voigt solutions. The nonlinear numerical results suggest the existence of "brain turbulence," with relevance to highly localized brain injuries.

2. Microphysics

a) Microphysical-electrical observations in subtropical clouds

James Dye, Eric Defer (USRA), Sharon Lewis, Geoffrey Dix and Wiebke Deierling (University of Hannover, Germany), participated in the Airborne Field Mill (ABFM) project at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) in Florida during June 2000, February 2001, and June 2001. Lightning is a serious problem at KSC. (Strict Lightning Launch Commit Criteria were developed after the lightning strike to an ATLAS- Centaur launch in 1987.) The objective was to obtain simultaneous in-situ airborne measurements of the electric fields and microphysical content in anvils and thick clouds near KSC using the Univ. of North Dakota Citation jet aircraft. The aircraft was instrumented with 6 field mills designed and built by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and an extensive array of microphysical probes which covered the range from a few microns to several millimeters including the new SPEC Cloud Particle Imager and the High Volume Particle Spectrometer. The aircraft measurements were made in coordination with radar measurements from the Patrick Air Force Base 74-C radar and the Melbourne NEXRAD radar. Measurements from the KSC LDAR and Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Sensing System, and surface electric field mill network provide information on lightning and surface electric fields.

In particular, the objective is to determine decay rates of electric fields in time and space within the anvils over KSC after lightning has occurred in the parent storm. These decay rates are to be compared with theoretically predicted rates, in a joint effort among NCAR, Hugh Christian, Monte Bateman and Doug Mach (both NASA MSFC), Tony Grainger (University of North Dakota), Phil Krider and Natalie Murray (both University of Arizona) and Paul Willis (NOAA Hurricane Research Division). Penetrations in a given storm initially were flown in the neighborhood of the convective cores of storms. Subsequent passes were made in the anvil at different distances downstream to examine the spatial and temporal decay of the electric field. In order to determine relationships between electrification and microphysics, spiral ascents and descents were made.

Analysis of these data sets is underway. Early results suggest that when the reflectivities in the anvils get low, approximately below 10 to 15 dBZ, the electric fields have decayed to a few kV/m or less. This and other comparisons with vertical reflectivity structure suggest that much of the charge in the anvils may be carried by precipitation-sized particles, which can sediment out of the anvil. But this hypothesis needs much more testing. Also, a radar-based rule might be useful for indicating when there is little hazard from natural or triggered lightning in anvils. https://web.archive.org/web/20030827085838/http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/asr2001/TOCframe.html[12/27/2016 2:06:00 PM] Untitled Document

b) Parameterizations of particle size distributions in tropical ice clouds

The properties of ice cloud layers sampled in Brazil and Kwajalein, Marshall Islands, during two TRMM field campaigns were studied by Andrew Heymsfield, Aaron Bansemer, James Dye and William Hall in MMM, Jeff Stith (NCAR/ATD), Paul Field (U.K. Meteorological Office), Tony Grainger (University of North Dakota) and Steve Durden (NASA/JPL). They studied the evolution of the particle size distributions and habits in the vertical during slow, Lagrangian-type spiral descents through ice cloud layers that were on average four kilometers deep. New instrumentation was used yielding better information on the concentrations of particles in the size range between 0.2 and 2 cm. The size distributions were found to have broadened from cloud top towards cloud base, with the largest particles increasing in size from several millimeters at cloud top to one centimeter or larger towards cloud base (Figure 23).

Figure 23. Intercept (No) and slope (l) parameters of size distributions fitted to the particle size distributions measured during Lagrangian spiral descents through ice cloud layers in Kwajalein, M. I.

Also noted was that the concentrations of particles less than 1 mm in size decreased with decreasing height. The result was a consistent change in the PSDs in the vertical. Aggregation - as ascertained from both the changes in the PSDs and evolution of particle habits as observed in high detail with the Cloud Particle Imager (CPI) probe - was responsible for these trends. The size distributions were fitted to curves of gamma distribution form, and it was found that the gamma fit parameters vary in a systematic way in the vertical. A set of equations that can be used to derive bulk properties including the extinction, ice water content and precipitation rate were developed to facilitate the use of the size distributions and related moments in cloud-resolving and general-circulation models.

c) Parameterization of extinction coefficient and radiative properties in midlatitude ice clouds

A study of how ice crystal cross-sectional area varies with size and in the vertical was conducted by Andrew Heymsfield and Larry Miloshevich. They used data collected from aircraft and balloon borne ice crystal replicators during studies of synoptically-generated cirrus cloud layers in Wisconsin and Oklahoma. The area of ice particles was cast in terms of the "area ratio," which is the ratio of an ice crystal's projected cross-sectional area to the area of a circle having the crystal’s maximum diameter. It was found that the slope coefficient of the power-law area ratio versus particle diameter relationship was roughly constant in the lower half of the cirrus clouds studied, but becomes steeper with increasing height in the upper half of the cloud column (See Figure 24). The height dependence of this relationship was attributed to the processes of crystal growth, aggregation and sublimation and their impact on the crystal shape and other crystal characteristics. Profile measurements from 10 cirrus clouds were combined to produce a single parameterization for the mean trend in area ratio with diameter, and for the dependence of its coefficients on fractional height within the normalized cloud column.

Figure 24. Mean "area ratio" versus diameter for six Lagrangian spiral descents through cirrus cloud layers in Fig I from 2D imaging probes (A2d), cloud particle imager (CPI) probe for one layer (ACPI), and from balloon borne ice crystal replicators from 3 ascents through cirrus layers (R).

Using the same data sets, Shaima Nasiri and Bryan Baum (both University of Wisconsin), Ping Yang (Texas A&M University), Andrew Heymsfield, Larry Miloshevich and Sharon Lewis studied the sensitivity of the scattering properties of ice cloud layers to the underlying assumptions of the particle size and habit distributions. They found that the near-infrared bands are sensitive not only to the discretization of the size distribution, but also to the assumed habit distribution. Additionally, the effective diameter calculated from a given size distribution tends to be sensitive to the number of size bins that are used to discretize the data, as well as to the ice crystal habit distribution. Using the results of this study, they developed new scattering models that were developed for a suite of wavelengths spanning visible, near infrared, and the infrared, for the retrieval of cloud properties from satellite radiometers.

d) Microphysical observations in hurricanes

Despite its tropical origin, the upper two-thirds of a typical hurricane is made up largely of ice. During the fourth Convective and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX) in August and September, 2001, Andrew Heymsfield and Aron Bansemer, together with Cindy Twohy (Oregon State University), Kevin Noone (Stockholm University), Paul Willis (NOAA Hurricane Research Division) and Paul Lawson (SPEC, Inc.), studied the microphysical properties of the ice regions of hurricanes. A suite of seven instruments that measured particle size distributions and ice water content was used to study the fraction of the total condensate in hurricanes that is lofted to the middle and upper troposphere (Figure 25). Sampling during three days when tropical storm Humberto developed into a hurricane, and then diminished back to tropical storm status, will be used by these researchers to study the changes in hurricane microphysical properties over the course of its life cycle.

Figure 25. NASA DC-8 aircraft during the CAMEX-4 field program. Bill Hall (MMM) is holding one of the microphysical probes used during the experiment.

e) New tools to process microphysical data

A versatile software package to process microphysical data collected by a variety of imaging probes on a multitude of aircraft was developed by William Hall, Aron Bansemer, Andrew Heymsfield and James Dye. The software package is written in the IDL programming language and uses image analysis techniques to derive accurate particle dimensions and concentrations. The software is designed to ingest data from most data acquisition systems that are used in the community. This package has been used in the ice cloud studies cited above and has been shown to produce more accurate size distributions than have been obtained using previous software packages.

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a) Large eddy simulations of shallow cumulus

Chin-Hoh Moeng participated in two Large-eddy Simulation (LES) modeling studies. The first was of the shallow cumulus regime over the trade-wind region characterized in the western Atlantic Ocean by the Barbados Oceanographic and Meteorological Experiment (BOMEX). This study, led by Pier Siebesma (KNMI, Netherlands), compared results from ten LES groups to evaluate simple parameterization schemes currently used in GCMs. The second was a study of the diurnal cycle of shallow cumulus over land from a synthesis of observations at the Southern Great Plains Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site. The simulated cloud field compared well among the eight LES groups worldwide and also agreed well with the observations. Mary Barth and Moeng are applying these cumulus simulations in an examination of the effects of cumulus clouds on chemical transport and reaction rates, while Ned Patton (visitor from PSU), Peter Sullivan and Moeng will examine cumulus effects on land-PBL interaction.

b) 2D vs. 3D simulations of PBL turbulence and clouds

Two-dimensional (2D) models (e.g., most of the existing Cloud-Resolving Models) are often used to simulate atmospheric turbulence and cloud fields. Those results can then be used to calibrate or develop one-dimensional parameterization schemes for use in weather or climate models. PBL turbulence and clouds are inherently three dimensional (3D), and hence statistical properties from 2D and 3D simulations can be significantly different. To investigate statistics obtained between 2D and 3D simulations, Chin-Hoh Moeng, Peter Sullivan, and Jeff Weil (visitor, CU/CIRES) began a systematic study, which will cover both clear and cloudy PBLs. They built a 2D version of the NCAR 3D LES code, keeping all large-scale forcing and numerics the same between the 2D and 3D versions. Certain statistics, such as the total heat flux, are constrained by the forcing and hence are expected to be the same regardless of whether the turbulence is 2D or 3D. However, many statistics and turbulence features are expected to be sensitive to the dimensionality. The goal is to compare turbulence and cloud statistics of 2D and 3D flows and provide reasons for their similarities and differences.

c) Marine stratocumulus

Entrainment of air from the overlying free atmosphere across the top of marine stratocumulus cloud decks is central to their subsequent evolution. This has been extensively studied by LES, but confirming observational data have been difficult to obtain because of the difficulty in measuring the entrainment rate. Recent developments in aircraft instrumentation and observational techniques have led to the field study, Dynamics and Chemistry of Marine Stratocumulus (DYCOMS-II). This field campaign was carried out with the NCAR C-130 aircraft during July 2001 about 300 km off the coast of southern California by Bjorn Stevens (UCLA), Donald Lenschow, Gabor Vali (Univ. of Wyoming), Christopher Bretherton (Univ. of Washington), Alan Bandy (Drexel University) and Hermann Gerber (Gerber Scientific).

Noteworthy measurement capabilities included fast-response measurements of dimethyl sulfide, which has optimal tracer properties for measuring entrainment (See Figure 26); fast in-cloud measurements of temperature (S.P. Malinowski, Warsaw University, Poland), humidity and liquid water; the Wyoming Cloud Radar and the NCAR Scanning Aerosol Backscatter Lidar (SABL) which provide remote measurements of cloud and drizzle structure; and the NCAR GPS dropsondes for vertical profiles of temperature, humidity and winds. A total of nine research flights (about 82 hrs) were flown. All but one was at night, to avoid the complicating effects of solar radiation. Lenschow and collaborators will be working with this data set over the next several years for a variety of studies. Primary analysis will focus on making comparisons with LES, examining the details of the entrainment process, studying the role of aerosols in stratiform cloud evolution, and trying to elucidate the processes involved in the development of mesoscale circulations.

Figure 26. Estimating entrainment velocity from the DMS mean and flux profiles for DYCOMS-II, Flight 1. The curve on the left is obtained from a C-130 sounding, and the data points on the left and right panels are from circular flight paths of 60 km diameter. The entrainment velocity We = 0.005 m/s, which agrees with the water and ozone fluxes, and with what is expected climatologically. The DMS measurement is easily capable of resolving this flux.

4. Surface-Atmosphere Interactions

a) Interaction between heterogeneous land surface and the atmosphere

MMM scientists and their collaborators have been involved in a variety of topics related to the interaction of the surface with the atmosphere and its effect on boundary-layer structure and fluxes. Emphases for the convective boundary layer are: the role of heterogeneity in vegetation and soil moisture in determining surface fluxes (CASES-97 and SGP-97), the role of horizontal variability in soil moisture and terrain elevation in generating mesoscale circulations, and the effects of those circulations on boundary-layer bulk statistics (LES linked to an LSM, CASES-97). Field measurements of the nocturnal boundary layer are being used to elucidate the role of sub-grid scale turbulence (SGS-2000), the root causes of intermittent turbulence (CASES-99) and the role of radiative flux divergence in nocturnal cooling (CASES-99). Numerical simulations of Kelvin-Helmholz instabilities have been performed to provide data for evaluation of wind-turbine performance. Ocean-atmosphere interaction work has focused on the coastal zone, including analysis of data relating ocean waves to momentum flux (SHOWEX). Work also includes an early look at low-level boundary layer structure and fluxes over the coastal zone off Martha's Vineyard in light winds through both observations and LES modeling (CBLAST).

b) Convective boundary layer

Surface fluxes

Evaluation of three land-surface models using CASES-97 aircraft data is nearly complete. In collaboration with Fei Chen and David Yates (both NCAR/RAP), Haruyasu Nagai (Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute) and Robert Grossman (University of Colorado), Margaret LeMone and Kyoko Ikeda have found that (a) modeled and observed sensible and latent heat fluxes averaged over low-level flight tracks are in good agreement, except that the sensible heat flux H is biased low for one aircraft, (b) observed variability in latent heat flux LE is reproduced better on days with horizontal variability in surface characteristics and surface-flux tower measurements, and (c) observed variability in H is the least well replicated. Chen and Yates suggest that observed horizontal variability in fluxes could be replicated with better specification of soil and plant characteristics and better treatment of subsurface soil moisture in the land-surface models. By looking at plots of H versus LE for smoothed fluxes averaged over repeated low-level flight tracks, LeMone shows that aircraft fluxes reflect surface fluxes better on days with high surface variability. On such days, the H-LE slope for surface stations plotted at a given time is close to the -1 slope expected from the surface energy balance if available energy for heating, net radiation minus heat flux into the ground, doesn't vary much horizontally. On days with low surface contrast, the aircraft data show a positive H-LE slope, reflecting the atmosphere's tendency to concentrate fluxes in regions of upwelling air.

The Southern Great Plains (SGP)-97 experiment provides atmosphere and hydrological data, http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/science/abl/sgp/sgp.html, simultaneously over a variety of surface types. Jielun Sun has analyzed responses of the atmospheric moisture flux to spatial variations of vegetation and soil moisture using the SGP-97 data, jointly with Larry Mahrt (Oregon State University), Ian McPherson (National Research Council, Canada) and Tom Jackson and Bill Kustas (both USDA ARS Hydrology Lab). She focused on the atmospheric moisture flux collected by the Canadian Twin Otter aircraft along the El Reno and Kingfisher tracks with the ESTAR soil moisture and Normalization of Vegetation Index (NDVI). Since the atmospheric moisture flux is estimated using the bulk formula in numerical models, she studied the correlation between the parameters used in the bulk formula, the observed soil moisture, and NDVI. Sun found that the variation of the roughness length for moisture is erratic when ground is dry and bare. The exchange coefficient for moisture is correlated with the soil moisture and NDVI.

Plant canopy influence on PBL scalar transport

Patton (visitor, Pennsylvania State University), Sullivan, and Ken Davis (Pennsylvania State University) incorporated the influence of a forest canopy into the NCAR nested-grid large-eddy simulation code. A comparison between cases with and without a forest canopy provide insight into the ability of the technique to simulate canopy-interactions and flow modifications induced by the presence of the plants. The study aimed to quantify the canopy-induced modification of top-down and bottom-up scalar mixing. The canopy had little or no effect on top-down mixing, but greatly enhanced bottom-up mixing efficiencies are seen at heights up to about four times the canopy height, i.e., the height of the roughness sublayer. At twice the height of the forest, the atmosphere is shown to be factor of four times more efficient at vertically mixing scalars than a similar case without plants. New curve fits were developed to include these canopy-induced effects.

Mesoscale circulations forced by surface heterogeneity

Ned Patton (visitor, Pennsylvania State University), Peter Sullivan, and Chin-Hoh Moeng used their clear-PBL large-eddy simulation code, which was recently coupled to the NOAH (National Center for Environmental Prediction / Oregon State University / Air Force / Office of Hydrology) land-surface model to study the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) response to large-scale soil moisture heterogeneity. Land-surface heterogeneity at scales about four times the boundary layer depth are found to most dramatically modify bulk boundary layer characteristics. Most important is the finding that for heterogeneous land surfaces of this scale the boundary-layer entrainment rate decreases by fourteen percent compared to a boundary layer forced by a homogeneous land-surface. This entrainment rate decrease results from energy input at the ground surface going into forming large-scale circulations rather than performing work entraining air from the free atmosphere. Turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) is larger for these heterogeneous cases than homogeneous cases suggesting that large-scale models that forecast TKE to estimate the PBL depth will err if the underlying surface is heterogeneous. In addition, these large-scale circulations are shown to perform a vast majority of scalar transport (see Figure 27).

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Figure 27. Entrainment velocity, normalized by convective velocity scale w*, as a function of horizontal wavelength of soil-moisture heterogeneity (dry plus wet strip) in a 30 km x 5 km by 1.88 km LES driven by the NOAA LSM. Horizontal lines give normalized entrainment velocity for ABL over soil with the same volumetric soil moisture as the 'dry' strip in the heterogeneous run; 'wet' is for the ABL over soil with moisture the same as the 'dry' strip in the heterogeneous run, and 'average' is for ABL over soil with the soil moisture equal to the average for the 'dry' and 'wet' strips.

Further work on mesoscale ABL circulations observed in CASES97 on 10 May has elucidated both their cause and their role in the heat budget on that day. Unlike those modeled by Ned Patton, Peter Sullivan and Chin-Hoh Moeng, these circulations are primarily associated with terrain elevation and are of order 40-50 times boundary-layer depth. By plotting soundings in the early morning and throughout the day, Margaret LeMone found that the vertically-averaged potential temperature was systematically lower over the low-elevation site (Oxford) than the higher elevation sites at the edges of the watershed (Whitewater and Beaumont) (See Figure 28). Before sunrise, the low vertical average at Oxford was related to drainage cooling near the surface and the deeper residual layer (in turn related to clear skies and light winds); the inversion at the top of the residual layer was at a constant pressure altitude. After sunrise, the vertical mixing and light horizontal winds preserved this difference through the day. This horizontal gradient, reinforced by the superadiabatic gradient, set up the solenoidal circulation documented using aircraft and wind profiler data (Figure 29).

Figure 28. Instrumentation and pre-determined flight tracks for the Cooperative Atmosphere Surface Exchange Study's 1997 experiment, CASES-97. Numbered squares are surface flux stations, located in rough proportion to land use and at a range of elevations. Wind profiles sampled at WHI (Whitewater), BEA (Beaumont), and OXF (Oxford) with radar wind profilers and Doppler minisodars. Contour interval = 20 m.

Figure 29. Schematic cross-section of mesoscale circulation of 10 May. Thin arrows denote mesoscale motions; large open arrows, synoptic scale subsidence, which extends into the mixed layer. Dashed lines are schematic flux legs; squares denote approximate average position of Whitewater and Oxford, and the position of Beaumont, relative to the Walnut River watershed.

While the mesoscale circulation was prominent, its effect on the heat budget over the watershed was mainly to produce error in the horizontal advection estimate. Both aircraft and sonde data were used to estimate thermal gradients assuming linear variation between the vertices of the triangle connecting Oxford, Beaumont, and Whitewater. The correlation of average BL potential temperature with surface elevation produces a dip over the watershed between Beaumont and Whitewater that is ignored under this assumption (Figure 28). Thus, even though the sonde and aircraft gradient estimates were nearly identical, the south-north temperature gradient was significantly larger than that estimated from EDAS synoptic products and the value needed to balance the budget.

Chemical transports and transformations

Analysis of large eddy simulations of chemical species in the convective boundary layer have continued in order to understand the interactions between boundary layer dynamics and atmospheric chemical reactions. Mary Barth (joint appointment with ACD) and Ned Patton (visitor, Pennsylvania State University) found very little segregation between isoprene and hydroxyl radical, a reaction that plays an important role in ozone production. An analysis of the covariance budget showed that the reaction of NO and HO2 to produce OH coupled with positive covariance between NO and isoprene reduces the segregation between isoprene and OH. Furthermore, organic peroxy radicals, which are a product of the isoprene and hydroxyl radical reaction, feed back into the chemistry such that hydroxyl radical concentrations are maintained.

Patton, Peter Sullivan, Barth and Chin-Hoh Moeng have developed a massively parallel LES code using the Message Passing Interface (MPI). The new code includes both clouds and chemistry and will serve as a research tool examining chemical transport and transformation in the environment of continental fair weather cumulus. Analysis of preliminary results is underway.

Stable Boundary Layer

Subfilter scale motions in large eddy simulations - SGS-2000

Peter Sullivan, Donald Lenschow, Chin-Hoh Moeng, Thomas Horst (NCAR/ATD) and Jeff Weil (visitor, CU/CIRES) began an in depth analysis of the sonic array data taken during the field campaign Sub Grid Scale (SGS)-2000. (For fuller descriptions of the field campaign see MMM Annual Scientific Report 2000 and http://www.atd.ucar.edu/sssf/projects/sgs2000/.) Figure 30 is a photograph of a typical sonic array configuration. The goal of this effort is to improve the subfilter scale (SFS) parameterization in our LES model based on measurements. Spatial filtering is used to decompose the measured SFS flux into Leonard, cross, and Reynolds terms using the definition proposed by Germano (Physics of Fluids, 1986). Preliminary results indicate that the variation of the SFS terms can be collapsed onto a single curve using the nondimensional variable L/Df where L is the scale associated with the spectral peak in the vertical velocity and Df is the filter width. One of the intriguing findings is that in the atmospheric surface layer the SFS motions approach isotropy only when L/Df > 10 as shown in Figure 31. Near a wall, current LES is in the regime L/Df < 2. This implies that Kolmogorov inertial range arguments, frequently used in developing SFS models, are not applicable near a rough boundary and hence the anisotropy of the SFS motions needs to be included in SFS models. Explicit accounting of the Germano-Leonard term also significantly improves the correlation between the measured SFS flux and eddy viscosity model predictions (either Smagorinsky or turbulent kinetic energy prescriptions).

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Figure 30. Array of sonic anemometers used to measure SFS motions in the surface layer of the PBL.The horizontal spacing between individual sonics is 0.5m and the vertical separation between the upper and lower arrays is 1.0m.

Figure 31. Contribution of the individual SFS velocity components to the SFS energy for varying L/Df. L depends on atmospheric stability and vertical location z. The SFS motions are isotropic when all ratios are equal to unity.

Comprehensive observations of the stable boundary layer - CASES-99

Intermittent turbulence

Using data from CASES-99 (http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/science/abl/cases/cases.html), which was conducted in the Walnut River watershed in Kansas, Jielun Sun and Sean Burns found that the occurrence height and the sequence of the local thermal and shear instabilities associated with the dynamics of a density current, solitary waves and downward propagating waves from a low-level jet were responsible for the apparent intermittent turbulence on the night of 18 October, 1999 (Figure 32). As the cold density current propagated through the CASES-99 site, large-eddy motions in the upper part of the density current led to periodic overturning of the stratified flow, local thermal instability and a downward spreading of turbulent mixing. The descending motion of the secondary circulation generated by the density current suppressed the turbulence generated by the thermal instability, and led to the wind surge and shear generated turbulence. Intermittent turbulence was also generated by wind speed oscillations associated with the solitary waves, and wave instability below the downward propagation of a low-level jet.

Figure 32. The vertical velocity at 8 levels on the 60-m tower on the night of 18 October 1999. Starting from 5 m, the value of the vertical velocity is shifted by the amount listed at the right side of each time series.

Role of the radiative flux and sensible heat flux divergence in the heat balance at night

and downward longwave radiation measurements at two levels and turbulence eddy-correlation measurements at eight levels. In contrast to previous radiation divergence measurements obtained within 10 m above the ground, the radiative flux divergence within a deeper layer between 2 m and 48 m was measured in CASES-99. Combining the new observations with the earlier studies, Jielun Sun and Sean Burns show that the radiative cooling to the local cooling at night is stronger than the local cooling close to the ground, but the two are opposite in an overlying layer. This result confirmed earlier numerical calculations that the relative contribution of the radiative flux divergence to the local cooling at night decreases with height. As a result, the relative contribution of the sensible heat flux transport and temperature advection to the local cooling increases with height. However, the absolute values of the sensible heat flux and temperature advection decrease with height since the local cooling decreases with height. They also found that the measured radiative flux divergence between 2 m and 48 m was more likely largest at the beginning of a night under weak wind and clear sky after a hot day, and may fluctuate around zero throughout the night due to variations of wind speed.

CASES-99 was a community field experiment. The research based on the CASES-99 data was conducted jointly with the CASES-99 community, which consists of universities, national labs and institutes. Collaboration was especially strong with Bob Banta and Rob Newsom (NOAA/ETL), Richard Coulter (Argonne National Lab), Bill Blumen (University of Colorado), Xuhui Lee and Xin-Zhang Hu (both Yale University) and Larry Mahrt (Oregon State University).

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Numerical simulation of stable-stratified Kelvin-Helmholz waves

Ned Patton (visitor, Pennsylvania State University), Peter Sullivan and Donald Lenschow partnered with colleagues at the National Wind Technology Center (Neil Kelley and Michael Robinson) to develop and run a version of the NCAR large-eddy simulation code that simulates the life cycle of a stably stratified Kelvin-Helmholtz wave. A high-resolution simulation suggests that the results compare extremely well with previously performed more-costly direct numerical simulations. This study provided NWTC wind-turbine designers the time-evolution of the associated three-dimensional velocity and temperature fields. Driving turbine-load codes using this surrogate atmosphere, designers will be able to create turbines capable of withstanding these damaging atmospheric conditions.

c) Interaction between the Ocean and Atmosphere

Relationship between the atmospheric momentum transport and oceanic waves - SHOWEX

The air-sea momentum transfer off the coast of Duck, NC was studied by the NOAA LongEZ aircraft and atmospheric observations over the coastal land during the Shoaling Wave Experiment (SHOWEX, (http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/science/abl/showex/showex.html). This is the first data set, which both atmospheric and oceanic measurements are obtained as functions of offshore distance. Jielun Sun and Sean Burns investigated a potential remote sensing method to retrieve two-dimensional directional oceanic surface waves by measurements of three laser altimeters installed on the research aircraft LongEZ. Their study indicates that the laser altimeters can be utilized to resolve wave spectra. However, the retrieval method of the wave propagation direction is very sensitive to the noise either from various non-linear waves, or the penetration of the laser beam into the water surface, or the aircraft motion. The comparison of the derived directional wave spectra between the aircraft and buoy observations indicates wave directional errors of about +/- 15 deg. In order to capture the directional wave spectra, two perpendicular flight runs are needed. This work was carried out in collaboration with Tim Crawford, Jerry Crescenti, and Jeff French (all NOAA Air Resources Lab), Douglas Vandemark (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center), Mark Donelan (University of Miami), and Larry Mahrt (Oregon State University).

CBLAST-LOW experiment

CBLAST-Low (Coupled Boundary Layers/Air-Sea Transfer under Low-Wind, http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/science/abl/cblast, is a project sponsored by the office of Navy Research. The focus of the field experiment is to study air-sea transfer of momentum, heat, and moisture under weak wind conditions. Jielun Sun and Sean Burns participated in the field experiment designs, especially flight track designs. Burns participated in the pilot experiment conducted at Martha's Vineyard in July-August, 2001. During the pilot experiment, he analyzed the in-situ data from the LongEZ to quality control instrument performance and to investigate spatial and temporal variations of the atmosphere and the sea surface in the region. Sun and Burns found that the on-site data analysis was crucial to identify instrument problems as well as to understand the air-sea interactions for on-site modifications of flight patterns.

Peter Sullivan, James McWilliams (University of California, Los Angeles) and Chin-Hoh Moeng performed large-eddy simulations (LESs) of the low wind atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) off the coast of Martha's Vineyard, in preparation for the main summer 2002 CBLAST field phase (http://www.whoi.edu/science/AOPE/dept/CBLASTmain.html). The simulations are made site specific by coupling the NCAR LES code to the operational version of the Navy's mesoscale code COAMPS. The latter provided temporal and spatial varying geostrophic winds and sea surface temperature for the LES code. For the expected observational period, they found that the typical ABL varies dramatically with slight changes in the magnitude of the winds with small nearly constant surface heat flux. For example the atmospheric stability varies from -300

Figure 33. Snapshot of the vertical velocity field at z = 25 meters above the surface at t = 1.5 h with zi/L = -240. Note the formation of closed Rayleigh-Benard cells.

Figure 34. Snapshot of the vertical velocity field at z = 25 meters above the surface at t = 7.6 h with zi/L = -10. Streaky patterns aligned with the surface winds are the dominant coherent structure.

5. Chemistry, Aerosols, And Dynamics Interactions Research

The foci of studies on chemistry, aerosols, and dynamics interactions are to examine the effect of physical and dynamical processes on chemical species and to study the effect of chemistry on aerosols and cloud condensation nuclei. Ongoing projects within the program include observational and numerical analyses of the Stratosphere-Troposphere Experiments: Radiation, Aerosols and Ozone (STERAO)-Deep Convection experiment datasets and aerosol and cloud chemistry process studies.

a) STERAO project

The STERAO-Deep Convection experiment, which was conducted during the summer of 1996, had the major goals of investigating NOx production by lightning and transport of chemical constituents by thunderstorms. Work since the field campaign has included analysis of the electricity and storm dynamics, synthesis of the numerical model results and analysis work to determine the production of NOx from lightning, numerical simulations of chemical constituents and calculation of photolysis frequencies in and near the storm. Additional description of the STERAO project and results are provided in the 1999 and 2000 Annual Scientific Report.

William Skamarock, Eric Defer, James Dye, Mary Barth (joint appointment with ACD), Brian Ridley (NCAR/ACD), Jeff Stith (NCAR/ATD) and Pierre Laroche and Patrice Blanchet (both ONERA, France) are finalizing two papers on lightning characteristics and NOx production from lightning derived from the analysis of the July 10 STERAO storm. These papers include a synthesis of the aircraft observations of NO, O3, and CO, the storm simulation by Skamarock et al (2000) and observations of total lightning channel lengths estimated by Defer in a new approach at determining how much NOx was produced 21 -3 by the July 10th storm. The results give NOx production per meter flash length of 1.4 x 10 molecules/m (2.3 x 10 moles NOx /m). This work emphasizes the difficulties and uncertainties inherent in extrapolating observations of a few flashes or even an entire storm to the global scale.

Defer has continued the analysis of lightning activity recorded by the high-resolution ONERA lightning mapper and the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) during STERAO-A. He has found that short duration intra-cloud flashes (those with durations < 1 ms) were recorded preferentially in the more intense phases of the 4 storms he has examined. A weaker, more stratiform storm had only a few of the short duration flashes. The results suggest that a rapid increase of short duration flashes may be of use in now casting the intensification of severe storms.

Wiebke Deierling (graduate student visitor, University of Hannover, Germany), Defer and Dye studied individual intracloud and cloud-to-ground flashes recorded simultaneously by the ONERA real-time 2D system and the ONERA high-resolution 3D system. They also investigated the measurements from the two systems for the entire 5 hr life of the 10 July, 1996 STERAO-A storm. For this storm only 55% of the flashes reported by the high-resolution system were recorded by the real-time 2D system. Most of the short duration flashes were not reconstructed by the real-time 2D system. The difference in the flash detection between the two systems can be explained mainly by the fact that the 2D system recorded only 100 samples per second compared to 4000 per sec recorded by the 3D system. Additionally, the thresholds applied to record the VHF signals are different in the two operational modes of the lightning mapper. Analysis of the total lightning recorded by the ONERA lightning mapper and the cloud-to-ground lightning from the National Lightning Detection Network is currently being analyzed to produce a climatology of both intra-cloud and cloud-to-ground lightning for NE Colorado for the https://web.archive.org/web/20030827085838/http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/asr2001/TOCframe.html[12/27/2016 2:06:00 PM] Untitled Document entire June through September, 1996 STERAO-A data set.

Numerical simulations of the 10 July, 1996 STERAO deep convective storm coupled with gas and aqueous phase chemistry by Barth and Rynda Hudman (SOARS student, Harvard University) explored the importance of non-methane hydrocarbon (NMHC) chemistry on chemical species distribution. Ozone mixing ratios were hardly affected by the inclusion of NMHCs, but formaldehyde mixing ratios in the anvil increased when NMHC chemistry was included compared to when it was not included. This study also examined the feasibility of using a reduced hydrocarbon chemistry mechanism compared to a more complex chemistry mechanism. Box model calculations showed that a reduced hydrocarbon chemistry mechanism did not adequately represent the more complex NMHC chemistry.

b) Aerosol and cloud chemistry process studies

It has been hypothesized that there exist particles on which water uptake is inhibited because the particles are coated with an organic film. Patrick Chuang (ASP postdoctoral fellow) in collaboration with Mike Hannigan (University of Colorado), Darrel Baumgardner and Graciela Raga (both at Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, UNAM) used a tandem differential mobility analyzer based technique to find direct evidence with minimal ambiguity of organic films inhibiting water uptake. The analysis reveals that inhibition of water uptake is rare. The potential effect of surface films on aerosols for cloud drop formation was also examined in a modeling study by Chuang in collaboration with Graham Feingold (NOAA/ETL). Using laboratory results of particle and film composition to initialize the model, it was found that films on aerosols can have a large effect on droplet number concentration, effective radius and spectral dispersion. This modeling study will motivate future experimental work in this research area.

Measurements of detailed chemical composition of East Asian aerosol during the ACE-Asia field experiment were obtained by Chuang in collaboration with Jamie Schauer (University of Wisconsin) so that they can apportion PM10, PM2.5 and PM1.0 according to source (e.g., coal combustion, gasoline combustion, biomass burning) using organic and isotope molecular markers. Once this source profile is determined, attribution of aerosol light scattering by source can be derived.

Mary Barth and Sonia Kreidenweis (Colorado State University) summarized the Cloud Chemistry Case for the Cloud Modeling Workshop that was held in August 2000. A special session at the 2001 Spring AGU was conducted that presented results from this intercomparison and other studies on the influence of clouds on tropospheric chemistry. The summary of the Cloud Chemistry Case is currently being documented as two journal articles.

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PUBLICATIONS

Note: Bold typeface denotes authors/co-authors from universities. Other external co-authors are designated by an asterisk following their name.

A. Refereed

Adams, J.C., and P.K. Smolarkiewicz, 2001: Modified multigrid for 3D elliptic equations with cross derivatives. Applied Math. Comput., 121, 301-312.

Barth, M.C., and S. Madronich, 2001: Effect of marine boundary layer clouds on tropospheric chemistry as analyzed in a regional chemistry transport model. J. Geophys. Res., In Press.

Barth, M.C., A.L. Stuart, and W.C. Skamarock, 2001: Numerical simulations of the July 10 Stratospheric-Tropospheric Experiment: Radiation, Aerosols and Ozone/Deep Convection storm: Redistribution of soluble tracers. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 12381-12400.

Blumen, W., R. Banta*, S. Burns, D.C. Fritts*, R. Newsom*, G.S. Poulos*, and J. Sun, 2001: Turbulence statistics of a Kelvin-Helmholtz billow event observed in the night time boundary layer during the Cooperative Atmosphere-Surface Exchange Study Field Program. Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, 34, 189-204.

Blyth, A.M., H.J. Christian*, K. Driscoll*, and J. Latham, 2001: Determination of precipitation rates and thunderstorm anvil ice contents from satellite observations of lightning. Atmos. Res., In Press.

Bromwich, D.H., A.J. Monaghan, J.G. Powers, J. Cassano, D. Wei, Y.-H. Kuo, and A. Pellegrini, 2001: Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS): A case study from the 2000/2001 field season. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, In Press.

Brown, P.R.A., and A.J. Heymsfield, 2001: The microphysical properties of tropical convective anvil clouds: A comparison of models and observations. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 127, 1535-1550.

Chen, F., T.T. Warner, and K.W. Manning, 2001: Sensitivity of orographic moist convection to landscape variability: A study of the Buffalo Creek, Colorado, flash flood case of 1996. J. Atmos. Sci., In Press.

Chen, S.-H, and W.Y. Sun, 2001: Application of the multigrid method and a flexible hybrid coordinate in a nonhydrostatic model. Mon. Wea. Rev., In Press.

Chien, F.-C., Y.-H. Kuo, and M.J. Yang, 2001: Precipitation forecast of the MM5 in Taiwan area during the 1998 Mei-Yu season. Wea. Forecasting, In Press.

Chong, M.*, and R. Rotunno, 2000: Real-time wind synthesis from Doppler radar observations during the Mesoscale Alpine Programme. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 2953-2962.

Clarke, A.D., W.D. Collins, P.J. Rasch, V.N. Kapustin, K. Moore, and S. Howell, 2001: Pollution transport on global scales: Measurements and model predictions. J. Geophys. Res., In Press

Collins, W.D., 2001: Effects of enhanced shortwave absorption on coupled simulations of the tropical climate system. J. Climate, 14, 1147-1165.

Collins, W.D., 2001: Parameterization of generalized cloud overlap for radiative calculations in general circulation models. J. Atmos. Sci., In Press.

Collins, W.D., P.J. Rasch, B.E. Eaton, D.W. Fillmore, J. Kiehl, T.C. Beck, and C.S. Zender, 2001: Simulation of aerosol distributions and radiative forcing for INDOEX: Regional climate impacts. J. Geophys. Res., In Press.

Cotter, C.S, P.K. Smolarkiewicz, and I.N. Szczyrba, 2001: A viscoelastic model for brain injuries. Int. J. Num. Meth. Fluids, In Press.

Crook, N.A., 2001: Understanding Hector: The dynamics of island thunderstorms. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 1550-1563.

Crook, N.A., and J. Sun, 2001: Assimilating radar, surface and profiler data for the Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 1550-1563, In Press.

Davis, C.A., and L.F. Bosart, 2001: Numerical simulations of the genesis of Hurricane Diana (1984). Part I: Control simulation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 1859-1881.

Davis, C.A., D.A. Ahijevych, and S.B. Trier, 2001: Detection and prediction of warm season mid-tropospheric vortices by the Rapid Update Cycle. Mon. Wea. Rev., In Press.

Drikakis, D., L.G. Margolin*, and P.K. Smolarkiewicz, 2001: On ``spurious'' eddies, Int. J. Num. Meth. Fluids, In Press.

Drikakis, D., and P.K. Smolarkiewicz, 2001: On spurious vortical structures. J. Comput. Phys., 172, 309-325.

Dubrulle, B.*, J.P. Laval, and P.P. Sullivan, 2001: A new dynamical subgrid model for the planetary surface layer. Part II: Analytical computation of fluxes, mean profiles, and variances. J. Atmos. Sci, In Press.

Dubrulle, B.*, J. P. Laval, P. P. Sullivan, and J. Werne*, 2001: A new dynamical subgrid model for the planetary surface layer. Part I: The model and a priori tests. J. Atmos. Sci., In Press.

Evans, K.F., S.J. Walter*, A.J. Heymsfield, and G.M. McFarquhar, 2001: The submillimeter-wave cloud ice radiometer (SWCIR): Simulations of retrieval algorithm performance. J. Geophy. Res., In Press.

Field, P.R.*, W.R. Cotton, K.J. Noone, P. Glantz, P.H. Kaye*, E. Hirst*, R.S. Greenaway*, C. Jost, R. Gabriel*, T. Reiner*, M.O. Andreae*, C.P.R. Saunders, A. Archer, T.W. Choularton, M. Smith, B. Brooks, C. Hoell*, B. Bandy, D.W. Johnson*, and A.J. Heymsfield, 2001: Ice nucleation in orographic wave clouds: Measurements made during INTACC. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 127, 1493-1512

Grabowski, W.W., 2001: Coupling cloud processes with the large-scale dynamics using the Cloud-Resolving Convection Parameterization (CRCP). J. Atmos. Sci., 58(9), 978-997.

Grabowski, W.W., 2001: Coupling cloud processes with the large-scale dynamics using the Cloud-Resolving Convection Parameterization (CRCP). J. Atmos. Sci., In Press.

Grabowski, W.W., and M.W. Moncrieff, 2001: Large-scale organization of tropical convection in two-dimensional explicit numerical simulations. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 127, 445-468.

Grabowski, W.W., and P.K. Smolarkiewicz, 2001: A multiscale anelastic model for meteorological research. Mon. Wea. Rev., In Press.

Hamill, T., C. Snyder, D. Baumgardner, Z. Toth*, and S.L. Mullen, 2000: Ensemble forecasting in the short to medium range: Report from a workshop. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 2653-2664.

Heymsfield, A.J., and G.M. McFarquhar, 2001: Microphyics in INDOEX clean and polluted trade cumulus clouds. J. Geophys. Res., In Press.

Heymsfield, A.J., S.A. Lewis, A. Bansemer, J. Iaquinta, L.M. Miloshevich, M. Kajikawa, C.H. Twohy, and M. Poellot, 2001: A general approach for deriving the properties of cirrus and stratiform ice cloud particles. J. Atmos. Sci., In Press.

Keenan, T.D.*, S.A. Rutledge, R.E. Carbone, J.W. Wilson, M.W. Moncrieff, G. Holland*, J.M. Hacker, K. Saito*, and N.A. Crook, 2000: The maritime continent thunderstorm experiment (MCTEX): Overview and some results. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 2433-2455.

Knight, C.A., A. Wierzbicki, R.A. Laursen, and W. Zhang, 2001: The adsorption of biomolecules to ice and their effects upon ice growth. Part I: Measuring adsorption orientations and initial results. Crystal Growth and Design, In Press.

Knight, C.A., and A. Wierzbicki, 2001: The adsorption of biomolecules to ice and their effects upon ice growth Part II. A discussion of the basic mechanism of "antifreeze" phenomena. Crystal Growth and Design, In Press.

Knight, C.A., J. Vivekanadan, and S.G. Lasher-Trapp, 2001: First radar echoes and the early ZDR history of Florida cumulus. J. Atmos. Sci., In Press.

Koch, S. E.*, F. Zhang, M. L. Kaplan, Y. -L. Lin, and C. M. Trexler, 2001: Numerical simulation of a mesoscale gravity wave event observed during CCOPE. Part III: Mountain-plains solenoids and unbalanced flow in the generation of wave episode II. Mon. Wea. Rev., In Press.

Krauss, T.W.*, R.T. Bruintjes, and H. Martinez, 2000: A new hail suppression project using aircraft seeding in Argentina. J.Weather Modification, 32, 73-80.

Laird, N.F.*, L.J. Miller, and D.A.R. Kristovich*, 2001: Synthetic dual-Doppler analysis of a winter mesoscale vortex. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 312-331.

Lasher-Trapp, S.G., C.A. Knight, and J.M. Straka, 2001: Early radar echoes from ultragiant aerosol in a cumuls congestus: Modeling and observations. J. Atmos. Sci., In Press.

LeMone, M.A., 2001: What we have learned about field programs. AMS Meteorology Mono.: Symposium of Cloud Systems, Hurricanes and TRMM, In Press.

LeMone, M.A., R.L. Grossman, R.T. McMillen*, K.N. Liou, S.C. Ou, L. Mckeen, W. Angevine*, K. Ikeda, and F. Chen, 2001: Late-morning warming and moistening of the convective mixed layer over the Walnut River Watershed. Bound.-Layer. Meteor., In Press.

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Leung, L.R.*, J. Michalakes, and X. Bian*, 2001: Parallelization of a subgrid orographic precipitation scheme in an MM5-based regional climate model. Computational Science--ICCS 2001, Springer, 159-203.

Liu, C., and M.W. Moncrieff, 2001: Cumulus ensembles in shear: Implications for parameterization. J. Atmos. Sci., 58(18), 2832-2842.

Liu, C., M.W. Moncrieff, and W.W. Grabowski, 2001: Explicit and parameterized realizations of convective cloud systems in TOGA COARE. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 1689-1703.

Liu, C., M.W. Moncrieff, and W.W. Grabowski, 2001: Hierarchical modeling of tropical convective systems using explicit and parameterized approaches. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 127, 493-515.

Mahrt, L., D. Vickers, and J. Sun, 2001: Spatial variations of surface moisture flux from aircraft data. Advances in Water Resources, In Press.

Mahrt, L., D. Vickers, J. Sun, and J.H. McCaughey, 2001: Calculation of area-averaged fluxes: Applications to BOREAS. J. Appl. Meteor., 40, 915-920.

Mahrt, L., D. Vickers, J. Sun, N.O. Jensen*, E. Pardygak, and H. Fernando, 2001: Determination of the surface drag coefficient. Bound.-Layer Meteor., 99, 249-276.

Mahrt, L., D. Vickers, J. Sun, T.L. Crawford*, G. Crescenti*, and P. Frederickson*, 2001: Surface stress in offshore flow and quasi-frictional decoupling. J. Geo. Res., 106, 20629-20639.

Mahrt, L., D. Vickers, M. Nakamura, M.R. Soler, J. Sun, S. Burns, and D.H. Lenschow, 2001: Shallow drainage flows. Bound.-Layer Meteor., In Press.

Mapes, B.*, and X. Wu, 2001: Convective eddy momentum tendencies in long cloud-resolving model simulations. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 517-526.

Matrosov, S.Y.*, A.V. Korolev*, and A.J. Heymsfield, 2001: Profiling cloud ice mass and particle characteristic size from Doppler radar measurements. J. Geophys. Res., In Press.

McCaul, Jr., E.W.*, and M.L. Weisman, 2001: The sensitivity of simulated supercell structure and intensity to variations in the shapes of environmental bouyancy and shear profiles. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 664-687.

McFarquhar, G. M., 2001: Comments on 'Parameterization of effective sizes of cirrus-cloud particles and its verification against observations' by Zhian Sun and Lawrie Rikus. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 127, 261-265.

Miller, K.*, A.M. Gadian, C.P.R. Saunders, J. Latham, and H.J. Christian*, 2001: Modelling and observations of thundercloud electrification and lightning. Quart. J. Roy. Meteort. Soc., 58, 89-115.

Miloshevich, L.M., H. Voemel, A. Paukkunen, A.J. Heymsfield, and S.J. Oltmans*, 2000: Characterization and correction of relative humidity measurements from Vaisala RS80-A radiosondes at cold temperatures. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 18, 135-156.

Muschinski, A., and D.H. Lenschow, 2001: Future directions for research on meter- and submeter-scale atmospheric turbulence. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 2831-2843.

Nasiri, S., B. Baum, A.J. Heymsfield, P. Yang, M. Poellot, and D.P. Kratz*, 2001: The development of midlatitude cirrus models for MODIS using FIRE-I, FIRE-II, and ARM In-Situ data. J. Appl. Meteor., In Press.

Phillips, V.J.P., T.W. Choularton, A.M. Blyth, and J. Latham, 2001: The influence of aerosol concentration on the glaciation and precipitation of a cumulus cloud. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., In Press.

Pielke, Jr., R.A., and R.E. Carbone, 2001: Weather impacts, forecasts, and policy: An integrated perspective. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., In Press.

Powers, J.G., and K. Gao, 2000: Assimilation of DMSP and TOVS satellite soundings in a mesoscale model. J. Appl. Meteor., 39, 1727-1741.

Prusa, J.M., P.K. Smolarkiewicz, and A.A. Wyszogrodski*, 2001: Simulations of gravity wave induced turbulence using 512PE Cray T3E. Int. J. Appl. Math & Comput. Sci., In Press.

Radke, L.*, T.L. Clark, J.L. Coen, C.A. Walther, R. Lockwood*, P.J. Riggan*, J. Brass*, and R. Higgins*, 2000: The WIldFire Experiment: Observations with airborne remote sensors. Canadian J. of Remote Sensing, 26(5), 406-417.

Ramanathan, V., P.J. Crutzen, J. Lelieveld, D. Althausen, J. Anderson, M.O. Andreae, C.A. Cantrell, G. Cass, C.E. Chung, A.D. Clarke, W.D. Collins, J.A. Coakley, F. Dulac, J. Heintzenberg, A.J. Heymsfield, B. Holben, J. Hudson, A. Jayaraman, J. Kiehl, T.N. Krishnamurti, D. Lubin, A.P. Mitra*, G.M. McFarquhar, T. Novakov, J.A. Ogren, I.A. Podgorny, K. Prather, J.M. Prospero, K. Priestley, P.K. Quinn, K. Rajeev, P. J. Rasch, S. Rupert, R. Sadourny*, S.K. Satheesh, P. Sheridan, G.E. Shaw, and F.P.J. Valero*, 2001: The Indian Ocean Experiment: An integrated assessment of the climate forcing and effects of the great Indo-Asian haze. J. Geophys. Res., In Press.

Ramaroson, R.*, A.L. Brasseur*, A. Delannoy*, W.C. Skamarock, and M.C. Barth, 2001: Three-dimensional calculation of photolysis frequencies in the presence of clouds. J. Atmos. Chem., In Press.

Rasch, P.J., W.D. Collins, and B.E. Eaton, 2001: Understanding the Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX) aerosol distributions with an aerosol assimilation. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 7337-7356.

Rasmussen, R.M., I. Geresdi, E. Karplus, K.W. Manning, and G. Thompson, 2001: Freezing drizzle formation in stably stratified layer clouds. Part I: The role of cloud condensation nuclei and radiative cooling of cloud droplets. J. Atmos. Sci., In Press.

Reed, R.J., Y.-H. Kuo, M.D. Albright, K. Gao, Y.-R. Guo, and W. Huang, 2001: Analysis and modeling of a tropic-like cyclone in the Mediterranean sea. Meteor. and Atmos. Physics, 76, 183-202.

Rotunno, R., and R. Ferretti, 2001: Mechanisms of intense alpine rainfall. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 1732-1749.

Rotunno, R., D.J. Muraki, and J.B. Snyder, 2000: Unstable baroclinic waves beyond quasigeostrophic theory. J. Atmos. Sci., 57, 3285-3295.

Smolarkiewicz, P.K., and L.G. Margolin*, 2001: MPDATA - a multipass donor cell solver for geophysical flows. Godunov Methods: Theory and Applications, E. F. Toro, Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers, 833 -840.

Smolarkiewicz, P.K., L.G. Margolin*, and A.A. Wyszogrodski*, 2000: A class of nonhydro­static global models. J. Atmos. Sci., 58(4), 349-364.

Stith, J., J.E. Dye, A. Bansemer, A.J. Heymsfield, C.A. Grainger, W.A. Petersen, and R. Cifelli, 2001: Microphysical observations of tropical clouds. J. Appl. Meteorol., In Press.

Sun, J., and N.A. Crook, 2001: Real-time low-level wind and temperature analysis using WSR-88D data. Wea. Forecasting, 16, 117-132.

Sun, J., D.H. Lenschow, S. Burns, R. Banta*, R. Newsom*, R. Coulter*, S. Frasier, T. Ince, C. Nappo*, B. Balsely, M. Jensen, D. Miller, B. Skelly, J. Cuxart*, W. Blumen, X. Lee, and X. Hu, 2001: Intermittent turbulence associated with a density current passage in the stable boundary layer. Bound.-Layer. Meteor., In Press.

Sun, J., D. Vandemark*, L. Mahrt, D. Vickers, T.L. Crawford*, and C. Vogel*, 2001: Momentum transfer over the coastal zone. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 12437-12448.

Trier, S.B., and C.A. Davis, 2001: Influence of balanced motions on heavy precipitation within a long-lived convectively generated mesoscale vortex. Mon. Wea. Rev., In Press.

Vandemark, D.*, P. Mourad*, T.L. Crawford*, C. Vogel*, J. Sun, S.A. Bailey, and B. Chapron*, 2001: Measured changes in ocean surface roughness due to atmosphere boundary layer rolls. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 4639-4654.

Vaillancourt, P.A.*, M.K. Yau, and W.W. Grabowski, 2001: Microscopic approach to cloud droplet growth by condensation. Part I: Model description and results without turbulence. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 1954-1964.

Warner, T.T., D. Yates, E.A. Brandes*, J. Sun, C.K. Mueller, and G.H. Leavesley*, 2001: Prediction of a flash flood in complex terrain: A comparison of flood discharge simulations using rainfall input from radar, a dynamic model, and an automated algorithmic system. J. Hydrologic Engineering, 6, 265-274.

Weisman, M.L., 2001: Bow echoes: A tribute to Fujita. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 97-116.

Weisman, M.L., 2001: Bow Echoes and Derechoes. Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences, In Press.

Weisman, M.L., 2001: Convective Storms. Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences, In Press.

Welch, W.T., P.K. Smolarkiewicz, R. Rotunno, and B. Boville, 2001: The large scale effects of flow over periodic mesoscale topography. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 1477-1492.

Wilson, J.W., R.E. Carbone, J. Tuttle, and T.D. Keenan*, 2001: Tropical island convection in the absence of significant topography. Part II: Nowcasting storm evolution. Mon. Wea. Rev., In Press.

Wu, X., and M.W. Moncrieff, 2001: Long-term behavior of cloud systems in TOGA COARE and their interactions with radiative and surface processes. Part III: Effects on the energy budget and SST. J. Atmos. Sci., 58(9), 1155-1168.

Wu, X., and M.W. Moncrieff, 2001: Sensitivity of single-column model solutions to convective parameterizations and intial conditions. J. Climate, 14(12), 2563-2582.

Yang, P., R.S. Gao*, B. Baum*, W. Wiscombe, Y. Hu, S. Nasiri, P. Soulen*, A.J. Heymsfield, and G.M. McFarquhar, 2001: Sensitivity of cirrus bidirectional reflectance at MODIS bands to vertical inhomogeneity of ice crystal habits and size distributions. J. Geophys. Res., In Press.

Yano, J.-I., M.W. Moncrieff, and X. Wu, 2001: Wavelet analysis of simulated tropical convective cloud systems. Part II: Decomposition of convective-scale and mesoscale structure. J. Atmos. Sci., 58(8), 868-878.

Yano, J.-I., M.W. Moncrieff, X. Wu, and M. Yamada, 2001: Wavelet analysis of simulated convective cloud systems. Part I: Basic analysis. J. Atmos. Sci., 58(8), 850-867.

B. Non-Refereed

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Ahijevych, D.A., R.E. Carbone, J.D. Tuttle, 2001: Warm season rainfall as a function of longitude and time of day over the U.S. 30th International Conference on Radar Meteorology, Munich, Germany, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 12A.3.

Ahijevych, D.A., R.E. Carbone, and J. Tuttle, 2001: Radar data and climatological statistics associated with warm season precipitation episodes over the continental United States. NCAR Technical Note, NCAR/TN-448+STR.

Bao, J.-W.*, J.M. Wilzack*, C.-K. Choi, L.H. Kantha, W. Wang, and J. Dudhia, 2001: Numerical simulation of air-sea interaction under high wind conditions: A case study of hurricane development. Amer. Meteor. Soc. Annual Meeting, Dallas, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 153-154.

Barker, D.M., W. Huang, Y.-R. Guo, and F. Vandenberghe, 2001: Initial verification of the MM5 3DVAR data assimilation system. 9th Conference on Mesoscale Meteorology, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 580-583.

Barth, M.C., 2001: Modeling the effects of clouds on chemical constituents. IGAC newsletter, 22.

Baumgardner, D., B. Gandrud*, J.E. Dye, S. Brooks, P. Bai*, and R. Herman*, 2001: Evolution of particles in the Arctic polar vortex. AGU Meeting, Washington DC, AGU, S100.

Bresch, J., and F. Vandenberghe, 2001: The impact of initial data and analysis methods on MM5 forecasts of convective systems. 9th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 218-219.

Bromwich, D.H., A J. Monaghan, J. Cassano, J.G. Powers, Y.-H. Kuo, and A. Pellegrini, 2001: Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS): A case study from the 2000/2001 field season. 6th Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 192-195.

Brooks, S., B. Gandrud*, D. Baumgardner, J.E. Dye, E.J. Jensen*, O.B. Toon*, and M.A. Tolbert, 2000: Measurements of large PSC particles during SOLVE. AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, AGU, F106.

Bruintjes, R.T., D. Breed, B.G. Brown, M.J. Dixon, and V. Salazar, 2000: Program for the augmentation of rainfall in Coahuila (PARC): Overview and results. 15th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification, Albuquerque, NM, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 45.

Carbone, R.E., J.D. Tuttle, D. Ahijevych, S.B. Trier, C.A. Davis, 2001: Inferences of predictability associated with warm season precipitation episodes over North America. Inter-Association Symposium on Statistical and Climatological Aspects of Rainfall from Convective Systems, Innsbruck, Austria, IAMAS/IAHS.

Carbone, R.E., J. Tuttle, D.A. Ahijevych, S.B. Trier, and C.A. Davis, 2001: Inferences of predictability associated with warm season precipitation episodes. 30th International Conference on Radar Meteorology, Munich, Germany, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 12A.2.

Carbone, R.E., J. Tuttle, D.A. Ahijevych, S.B. Trier, and C.A. Davis, 2001: Inferences of predictability associated with warm season precipitation episodes. 9th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 276-278.

Cotter, C.S., P.K. Smolarkiewicz, and I.N. Szczyrba, 2001: A viscoelastic model for brain injuries. NO Conference Title ENTERED, NO Meeting City ENTERED, NO Meeting Sponsor ENTERED, NO Pages ENTERED.

Cram, J.M., J. Daniels*, W. Bresky*, Y. Liu, S. Low-Nam, and R.S. Sheu, 2001: Use/impact of NESDIS GOES wind data within an operational mesoscale FDDA system. 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 273-277.

Cram, J.M., Y. Liu, S. Low-Nam, R.S. Sheu, L. Carson, C.A. Davis, T.T. Warner, and J.F. Bowers*, 2001: An operational mesoscale rt-fdda analysis and forecast system. 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., J108-J122.

Crook, N.A., and J. Sun, 2001: Assimilating radar, surface and profiler data for the Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project. 30th International Conference on Radar Meteorology, Munich, Germany, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 480-482.

Crook, N.A., and J. Sun, 2001: Assimilation and forecasting experiments on supercell storms. Part II: Experiments with WSR-88D data. 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 147-150.

Davis, C.A., J.G. Powers, and L.F. Bosart, 2001: Numerical simulations of the genesis of Hurricane Diana (1984). 9th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 466-469.

Davis, C.A., J.G. Powers, and L.F. Bosart, 2001: Track and intensity prediction of tropical cyclone Diana (1984): Sensitivity to MM5 physical parameterizations. 11th PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model Users' Workshop, Boulder, CO, NCAR, 82-85.

Davis, C.A., S.B. Trier, D.A. Ahijevych, and R.E. Carbone, 2001: Predictability of heavy precipitation induced by mesoscale convective vortices. Symposium on Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and Responses, 81st AMS Annual Meeting, Albuquerque, NM, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 143.

Defer, E., J.E. Dye, and P. Laroche*, 2001: Length of lightning flash components deduced from VHF radiation and inferred NOx production. International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences, Innsbruck, Austria, International Association of Meteorology and Atmospherics Sciences.

Defer, E., J.E. Dye, J. Hagen*, P. Laroche*, C. Thery*, P. Blanchet*, D. Bartels*, and T. Matejka*, 2000: Short-duration flashes recorded during the STERAO-A experiment. Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, San Francisco, CA, EOS, F90.

Defer, E., J.E. Dye, K. Cummins*, P. Blanchet*, C. Thery*, and P. Laroche*, 2000: Simultaneous observations of CG activity from NLDN and ONERA interferometric mapper during the STERAO-A 10 July 1996 storm. International Lightning Detection Conference, Tucson, AZ, Global Atmospherics, Inc.

Defer, E., J.E. Dye, P. Blanchet*, C. Thery*, and P. Laroche*, 2000: Short duration flashes recorded during the STERAO-A 10 July 1996 storm. International. Lightning Detectection. Conference, Tuscon, AZ, Global Atmospherics, Inc.

Drikakis, D.*, L.G. Margolin*, and P.K. Smolarkiewicz, 2001: Spurious eddies. NO Conference Title ENTERED, Oxford, United Kingdom, University of Oxford, NO Pages ENTERED.

Dudhia, J., 2001: Recent developments and plans for MM5. 11th PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model Users' Workshop, Boulder, CO, NCAR, 1-3.

Dudhia, J., 2001: The Weather Research and Forecasting Model: Current status and future plans. International Workshop on Next Generation NWP Model, Seoul, S. Korea, Yonsei University, 15-19.

Dye, J.E., E. Defer, C.A. Grainger*, M. Poellot, H.J. Christian*, M. Bateman*, D. Mach*, R. Stewart*, P. Willis*, and F. Merceret*, 2000: Electric field and associated microphysical measurements in the anvil of a decaying Florida thunderstorm. Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, San Franscisco, CA, EOS, F91.

Epifanio, C., D.J. Muraki, and R. Rotunno, 2001: Stratified flows past 3D ridges at intermediate Rossby number. 9th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

Gandrud, B.*, D. Baumgardner, J.E. Dye, S. Brooks, and P. Bai*, 2001: Characteristics of PSCs from in-situ observations during the SOLVE campaign. AGU/EOS, Washington DC, AGU, S99.

Grabowski, W.W., P.K. Smolarkiewicz, and M. Andrejczuk, 2000: Cloud-resolving tropical convection and large-scale equatorial disturbances: Results from 2D cloud-resolving and 3D CRCP global modeling. NO Conference Title ENTERED, Fort Lauderdale, FL, NO Meeting Sponsor ENTERED, 91-92.

Grabowski, W.W., P.K. Smolarkiewicz, and M. Andrejczuk, 2000: Toward cloud-resolving modeling of climate: Application of the cloud-resolving convection parameterization (CRCP) to global modeling. 13th International Conference on Clouds and Precipitation, Reno, NV, IAMAP, 484-485.

Krippner, S.E.*, S. Halvorson*, J.M. Cram*, Y. Liu*, and S. Low-Nam, 2001: Operational use of real-time four dimensional data assimilation of Dugway Proving Ground. 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93-97.

Kuo, Y.-H., W. Wang, C.A. Davis, and W.-C. Lee, 2001: Numerical simulation of the genesis of Hurricane Danny. 9th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 5B.4.

Liu, Y., J.M. Cram*, C. A. Davis, T.T. Warner, S. Low-Nam, and S.D. Sheu, 2001: Impact of continuous real-time FDDA on short-term (0-12 hour) forecasts. 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., J154-J158.

Low-Nam, S., C.A. Davis, J.M. Cram*, Y. Liu*, R.S. Sheu, and J. Dudhia, 2001: Use of snow prediction scheme in a mesoscale real-time FDDA system. 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., J149-J153.

Michalakes, J., S.S. Chen, J. Dudhia, L. Hart*, J. Middlecoff*, and W.C. Skamarock, 2000: Development of a next generation regional weather research and forecast model. 9th ECMWF Workshop on the Use of High Performance Computing in Meteorology, Reading, UK, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, 269-276.

Powers, J.G., 2001: Modeling investigations of Typhoon Sam: Assessment and sensitivities of track and intensity forecasts on the AOAWS MM5. International Conference on Mesoscale Meteorology and Typhoons in East Asia, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC, National Taiwan University, 310- 315.

Powers, J.G., and J. Bresch, 2001: Real-time MM5 forecasting for Antarctica. 11th PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model Users' Workshop, Boulder, CO, NCAR, 52-55.

Powers, J.G., Y.-H. Kuo, J. Bresch, D.H. Bromwich, J. Cassano, and A. Cayette*, 2001: The Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System: Development and case examination. 9th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 506-510.

Powers, J.G., Y.-H. Kuo, J. Bresch, J. Cassano, D.H. Bromwich, and A. Cayette*, 2001: The Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System. 6th Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 339-342.

Rotunno, R., and M.L. Weisman, 2001: Effects of ambient shear on lifting produced by cold pools. 9th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 303-307.

Shapiro, M.A., and F. Zhang, 2001: Mesoscale dynamics and life cycle of the 24-26 January 2000 east-coast snowstorm. 9th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

Sheu, R.S., J.M. Cram*, Y. Liu, and S. Low-Nam, 2001: A quantitative evaluation on the performance of a real-time mesoscale FDDA and forecasting system under different synoptic situations. 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 98-102.

Skamarock, W.C., J.B. Klemp, and J. Dudhia, 2001: Prototypes for the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model. 9th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., J11-J15.

Snyder, C., 2001: Tests of an ensemble Kalman filter at convective scales. 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 444-446.

Snyder, C., F. Zhang, J. Sun, and N.A. Crook, 2001: Tests of an ensemble Kalman filter at convective scales. 14th Conference on Weather and Forecasting, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 44-446. https://web.archive.org/web/20040117095627/http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/asr2001/pubs_frameset.html[12/27/2016 2:15:08 PM] Untitled Document

Stith, J., J.E. Dye, A.J. Heymsfield, and C.A. Grainger, 2000: Precipitation development in tropical clouds. 2000 Fall AGU Meeting, San Franscisco, CA, AGU, F157.

Stull, R.B., T.L. Clark, and H. Modzelewski, 2001: Fine scale mesoscale modeling applied to wildfires in British Columbia. 4th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, Reno, NV, Amer. Meteor. Soc., NO Pages ENTERED.

Sun, J., and N.A. Crook, 2001: Assimilation and forecasting experiments on supercell storms: Part I: Experiments on simulated data. 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, USA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 142-146.

Sun, J., N.A. Crook, and L.J. Miller, 2001: Assimilation and forecasting of a supercell storm: Simulated and observed data experiments. 30th International Conference on Radar Meteorology, Munich, Germany, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 188-190.

Sun, J., S. Burns, D.H. Lenschow, X. Hu, and X. Lee, 2000: Intermittent turbulent mixing in stable boundary layers. 2000 Fall AGU Meeting, San Francisco, CA, AGU, F149.

Trier, S.B., and C.A. Davis, 2001: Observations and numerical simulations of a long-lived convectively generated mesoscale vortex. 9th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 308-312.

Trier, S.B., D.A. Ahijevych, C.A. Davis, and R.E. Carbone, 2001: Radar observations of mesoconvective vortices over the Central United States (1998-2000). 30th International Conference on Radar Meteorology, Munich, Germany, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 12A.1.

Wang, W., 2000: Mesoscale model: MM5. Forum on Frontier Research in Atmospheric Sciences, Beijing, China, Chinese Assoc. of Science and Technology, 54-59.

Weisman, M.L., and R. Rotunno, 2001: The role of low-level windshear in promoting strong, long-lived squall lines. 9th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 298-302.

Weng, W., P.A. Taylor, and P.P. Sullivan, 2001: On turbulent and mean flow Reynolds stresses above water waves. European Geophysical Society, Nice, France, European Geophysical Society.

Wu, C.-C., T.-H. Yen, and Y.-H. Kuo, 2001: Rainfall simulation associated with Typhoon Herb (1996) near Taiwan. Symposium on Precipitation Extremes: Prediction, Impacts and Response, 81st Annual AMS Meeting, Albuquerque, NM, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 318-321.

Xu, M., N.A. Crook, J. Sun, and R.M. Rasmussen, 2001: Short-term forecasting of snowbands using radar data and 4DVAR assimilation. 30th International Conference on Radar Meteorology, Munich, Germany, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 185-186.

Xu, M., N.A. Crook, J. Sun, and R.M. Rasmussen, 2001: Assimilation of radar data for 1-4 hour snowband forecasting using a mesoscale model. 14th Conference on Weather and Forecasting, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 283-286.

Zhang, F., C. Snyder, and R. Rotunno, 2001: Sensitivity to initial state and grid resolution in the prediction of the January 2000 east coast snowstorm. 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 47-51.

Zhang, F., J.B. Snyder, and R. Rotunno, 2001: The influence of moist convection on the predictability of large scales. 9th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, USA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 269-273.

Zhang, F., R. Rotunno, J.B. Snyder, C.A. Davis, and W. Wang, 2001: Idealized baroclinic wave simulation with MM5 and its applications. PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model Users' Workshop, Boulder, CO, MMM/NCAR, 10.

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Educational Activities

College & University Outreach

The MMM Division considers their interactions with colleges and universities extremely important. Several staff maintain teaching arrangements, advise graduate students, teach and lecture with many institutions.

Teaching Arrangements

William Collins: Adjoint Professor, University of Colorado. Christopher A. Davis: Adjunct Professor, North Carolina State University and Colorado State University. James E. Dye: Affiliate Faculty, Colorado State University. Wojciech W. Grabowski: Adjunct Professor, University of Deleware. Andrew J. Heymsfield: Affiliate Professor, University of Wisconsin- Madison. Charles A. Knight: Adjunct Professor, Colorado State University. Ying-Hwa Kuo: Adjunct Professor, National Central University in Taiwan and University of Hawaii. John Latham: Emeritus Professor, University of Manchester Institute of Science & Technology. Margaret A. LeMone: Affiliate Professor, Colorado State University and University of Colorado. Peter P. Sullivan: Affiliate Professor, Colorado State University. Morris L. Weisman: Visiting Professor, State University of New York at Albany. Joan Wilson: Adjunct faculty, Metropolitan State College of Denver.

Individual Courses Taught

Richard Rotunno: Gravity Currents & Internal Bores at University of Trento, Italy. Morris L. Weisman: Convective Storm Dynamics and Forecasting at State University of New York at Albany. Joan Wilson: Aviation Weather at Metropolitan State University of Denver.

Graduate Research Advisors

Roelof Bruintjes: University of Witwatersrand, South Africa. William Collins: University of Colorado. James E. Dye and Eric Defer (long-term visitor): at the University of Hannover, Germany. Ying-Hwa Kuo: National Taiwan University and Seoul National University. John Latham: University of Manchester Institute of Science & Technology. Peter Sullivan: Colorado State University.

Thesis Committee Members

Mary Barth: Stanford University. Roelof Bruintjes: University of Witwatersrand, South Africa. Christopher A. Davis: Colorado State University. James E. Dye: University of North Dakota. Wojciech W. Grabowski: Colorado State University. Andrew J. Heymsfield: University of Colorado. Ying-Hwa Kuo: Seoul National University, Korea. John Latham: University of Colombo, Sri Lanka, and University of West Indies, Guadaloupe. Margaret A. LeMone: University of Colorado (2 students). Donald H. Lenschow: University of Colorado and Drexel University. Chin-Hoh Moeng: University of California, Davis, and Colorado State University. William Skamarock: University of Miami and Stanford University. Peter P. Sullivan: Colorado State University. Juanzhen Sun: University of Iowa.

Participation in UCAR/NCAR/UOP Programs (top)

Significant Opportunities in Atmospheric Research and Science (SOARS) http://www.fin.ucar.edu/soars/

MMM staff mentored many of the SOARS students again this year. Nine staff were involved during the Summer SOARS program of 2001 with seven SOARS students. One of the MMM SOARS students (Pauline Datulayta) won an award for her presentation at the Society for Advancement of Chicanos and Native Americans in Science. Margaret LeMone was a member of the SOARS Advisory Committee.

Pauline Datulayta. Science Research mentor: Chin-Hoh Moeng Kate Dollen. Science Research mentor: Fuqing Zhang; Scientific Writing mentor: Craig Epifanio. https://web.archive.org/web/20031224065706/http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/asr2001/ed_frameset.html[12/27/2016 2:15:28 PM] Untitled Document

Rynda Hudman. Science Research mentor: Mary Barth. Maribel Martinez. Science Research mentors: Margaret LeMone and Charles Knight. Ernesto Munoz-Acevedo. Community mentor: David Ahijevych Sarah Tessendorf. Science Research mentor: Jay Miller Segayle Walford. Science Research mentor: Gregory McFarquhar

Other Program Participation

William Collins: Organizer of the ASP 2001 Summer Colloquium

Non-Technical and Educational Outreach (top)

Outreach into the non-meteorological community is necessary in order to encourage the sciences and represent our field. MMM staff that have preformed outreach activities are:

William Collins: Invited presentation to the Boulder County Clean Air Consortium.

Charlie Knight: Presentation to a High School class in Joes, CO on "Hail, Supercooled Water, and Phase Changes" in May 2001.

Margaret LeMone: Interviewed as part of the NMNS Science Odyssey Program and arranged a lecture on Cretaceous climate for Western Interior Paleontology Society Symposium at the WIPS at Colorado School of Mines. She also presented a talk on "Field Research Opportunities for Undergraduates" at NCAR in January 2001.

Chin-Hoh Moeng: Lectured to middle school students at Platte Middle School on "Career as a Scientist."

Jordan Powers, James Bresch, and Kevin Manning: Continued support and development of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS). This system provides real-time, high-resolution numerical guidance to forecasters at the McMurdo Station, Antarctica. Antarctic forecasters have greatly welcomed this system, and consider it an important tool.

Morris Weisman: Presentation on Tornadoes and Hailstorms of Colorado to the Clinical and Pathological Society of Denver in October 2000.

Joan Wilson: Presentation on Aviation Weather Research at NCAR to the International women Pilots Associatioin in Denver in March 2001 and again to the Boulder Squadron Civil Air Patrol of the Colorado National Guard in April 2001.

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Community Service

Community Models http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/community/models.html

Model Development & User Support

MM5 Model Development MM5 Version 3.4 was released in November 2000, and includes the Pleim- Xiu land-surface package described in last year's report. Most of the development work has been aimed at the release of Version 3.5 due in November 2001. The key additions are (i) thermal roughness length formulation options to improve the surface fluxes and test sensitivities, (ii) addition of snow cover variation using a heat and moisture budget in the simple slab soil model, (iii) addition of climatological variation of vegetation fraction and specified variation of snow cover to assist regional climate and other long-term runs, (iv) addition of cloud microphysics interaction with CCM2 radiation option (John Cassano, University of Colorado), (v) addition of ability to use the land-surface model with the Eta planetary boundary layer scheme (Wei Wang), (vi) addition of new version of the Kain-Fritsch cumulus parameterization scheme (Wei Wang, Jim Bresch, Jack Kain of NSSL), (vii) tropical storm bogussing was added as an initialization option (Simon Low-Nam, David Gill), (viii) a new program, INTERPB, was added to the modeling system to enable post-processing using pressure- level MM5 data (David Gill).

MM5 User Support The number of MM5 users continued to grow in 2001. There are approximately 700 users from over 300 institutions worldwide currently on the MM5 mailing list. Over 2300 emails from users have been addressed.

WRF Model Development and User Support The beta-version of the WRF modeling system was released in December 2000 and updated in May 2001. A WRF User page was developed to provide interested users with documentation and a users' guide to run the system. Even though the WRF model is still in its infancy stage, it has attracted many interested users. As many as 370 people have downloaded WRF code, and over 200 people have subscribed to the WRF users' list. Over 190 questions have been sent to wrfhelp.

Model Workshops

MM5 Workshop The Eleventh Annual Users' Workshop was held on 25-27 June with 92 participants from 58 institutions worldwide. This workshop is a forum to bring MM5 model developers and users together to exchange and discuss new developments and applications of the model. The special theme for this year's workshop was the impact of physical parameterization on mesoscale numerical simulations. Four invited speakers (Ming-Dah Chou of NASA, William Hall of MMM, Georg Grell of FSL/NOAA, and Bjorn Stevens of UCLA) spoke on the four important physical parameterization areas in numerical modeling: atmospheric radiation, microphysics, cumulus convection and the planetary boundary layer. Fifty presentations were given at the workshop. All electronically submitted papers from the workshop are available from MM5 home page at http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/workshop/workshop-program-2001.html

WRF Workshop The Second Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Workshop took place on 15 August, followed by a special workshop on land surface modeling in WRF on 16-17 August. This was the first workshop after the beta-release of the WRF modeling system in December 2000. A total of 117 people registered for the workshop. Twenty-one papers were presented including eleven contributions from the outside users.

Educational Activities for Models

MM5 Tutorial The MM5 modeling system tutorial continues to be popular this year. A total of 106 participants from 84 institutes attended the two tutorial classes in January and June of 2001. To accommodate so many interested users, each class was divided into two practice groups, and the tutorial class was extended to a fifth day. Based on tutorial participants' suggestion, we have begun to use Powerpoint to do the tutorial presentations. This method is an improvement over the previous Framemaker presentations. Jimy Dudhia, David Gill, Kevin Manning, Al Bourgeois and Wei Wang lectured at the tutorials.

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Dave Gill explains the process to one of the MM5 Tutorial students in the MMM classroom.

WRF Tutorial A one-and-half day WRF tutorial was offered in August, in conjunction with the WRF Users' Workshop. A total of 80 people participated in this tutorial. Jimy Dudhia, William Skamarock, John Michalakes (long-term visitor, Argonne Laboratories), Shu-hua Chen (postdoc associated with MMM), Brent Shaw (FSL/NOAA), David Gill, and Ethan Alpert (SCD) lectured at this first WRF tutorial. A practical session was also offered.

Data Access and Analysis Software Support (top)

Sherrie Fredrick and Jay Miller continued support of MMM-developed software that is used mostly for the analysis of radar observations, including those from the National Weather Service (NWS) WSR-88D network and from specialized scientific field programs. Included in this software are the MMM Plan Position Indicator (PPI) program for algebraic manipulation and display of radar data in the radar sampling space, SPRINT (Sorted Position Radar INTerpolator) for gridding radar data, and CEDRIC (Custom Editing and Display of Reduced Information in Cartesian space) for analysis and display of gridded data.

Fredrick modified CEDRIC source code to make it possible to import national-scale satellite and WSI Corporation 2-km composited NEXRAD Information Dissemination System (NIDS) datasets in the Research Application Program (RAP) MDV format. Fredrick reworked some of the network Common Data Format (netCDF) components to make CEDRIC's netCDF format more compatible with commercial software packages such as Interactive Data Language (IDL). Miller continued scientific support for users of the SPRINT-CEDRIC software system. Notable users were several members of the Colorado State University (CSU) Radar Meteorology Group: Patrick Kennedy, Sarah Tessendorf, Larry Carey, and Walt Peterson.

In recent years, John Tuttle has been using the TREC (Tracking Radar Echoes by Correlation) software to estimate the wind fields in tropical cyclones from radar reflectivity data. For simplicity, all of the work was done in a Cartesian coordinate system. Recently Tuttle modified TREC to operate on data in a polar coordinate system centered on the hurricane eye, a more natural configuration for studying cyclone circulations. In many cases the results were improved considerably, producing a more accurate representation of hurricane winds. In consultation with Tuttle, Paul Harasti (post doc visitor at the Tropical Prediction Center, TPC) has transferred the new TREC algorithm to the TPC where it will be used operationally to estimate hurricane winds from WSR88D level IV data. TREC will complement the Doppler based wind retrieval techniques already in place, and since TREC uses reflectivity data alone it can provide information out to greater ranges. This work is a good example of technology transfer to the operational community and has the potential for significant benefits.

Field Campaigns (top)

CAMEX-4: http://camex.msfc.nasa.gov. The Convection And Moisture EXperiment (CAMEX) is a series of field research investigations sponsored by the Earth Science Enterprise of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The fourth field campaign in the CAMEX series (CAMEX-4) was held on 16 August - 24 September, 2001 and is based out of Jacksonville Naval Air Station, Florida. This fourth experiment is the first field project of the U.S. Weather Research Program, a multi-agency effort to reduce the national impact of disastrous weather, particularly hurricanes. Robert Gall is the USWRP's lead scientist.

Andrew Heymsfield was one of the principal investigators flying seven instruments aboard the DC-8 to get the clearest-ever picture of frozen and condensed water within a hurricane. Aaron Bansemer was an instrument operator.

ARREX-2001: Daniel Breed was a flight scientist during this experiment in March 2001. Its purpose was to study aerosol recirculation and rainfall in South Africa.

UAE-2001: United Arab Emirates Rainfall and Air Chemistry Project beginning in September 2000 and ongoing. This experiment takes place in Abu Dhabi, and various locations in the United Arab Emirates. It is a feasibility study for the potential for rainfall enhancement via cloud seeding sponsored by the UAE. Daniel Breed (Project manager), Roelof Bruintjes (Principal Investigator), and Janice Coen have participated in this project.

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Roelof Bruintjes and Janice Coen with UAE government officials for the Feasability Study.

Daniel Breed solving a problem during the UAE-2001 project.

ABFM: Airborne Field Mill Project was held in February and in May and June of 2001. James Dye was the Principal Investigator with MMM long-term visitor, Eric Defer, participating. It was held at the Kennedy Space Flight Center

DYCOMS-II: Dynamics and Chemistry of the Marine Stratocumulus experiment was held in Coronado, California in July 2001. Donald Lenschow was the Co- Principal Investigator, using the NCAR C-130 to measure entrainment at the top of the stratocumulus-capped boundary layer off the California coast.

Donald Lenshow at the Operations Center of DYCOMS-II.

ACE-Asia: In order to determine and understand the properties and controlling factors of aerosol in the anthropogenically modified atmosphere of Eastern Asia and the Northwest Pacific as well as to assess their relevance for radiative forcing of the climate, the Asian Pacific Regional Aerosol Characterization Experiment was held on March and April 2001 in Iwakuni, Japan and in Kosan, Korea. William Collins was the Principal Investigator for this project.

Looking Ahead……..

CBLAST: is a coupled air-sea interaction field program with the main sponsor being ONR. The primary character is Woods-Hole. http://www.whoi.edu/science/AOPE/dept/CBLASTmain.html. Jielun Sun and Sean Burns have participated in a pilot program for this experiment in July and August 2001 and will continue to be involved, as will Peter Sullivan in the modeling component.

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CBLAST experiment

IHOP: The International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) is a field experiment scheduled to take place over the Southern Great Plains (SGP) of the United States from 13 May to 30 June 2002. The chief aim of IHOP_2002 is improved characterization of the four-dimensional (4-D) distribution of water vapor and its application to improving the understanding and prediction of convection. Margaret LeMone will be the Principal Investigator for this International Water Vapor Experiment. This experiment is sponsored by the USWRP.

BAMEX: Planned dates for this experiment are 15 May to 15 July, 2003. Christopher Davis is one of the coordinators. (Bow Echo and Mesoscale Convective Vortex Experiment)

Investigation of effects of horizontal transport of carbon dioxide in long-term carbon observations: Jielun Sun, Donald Lenschow, Margaret LeMone, Steven Oncley, and Anthony Delany will conduct a small field experiment in 2002 to investigate the magnitude of horizontal transport of CO2 at night and its contribution to long-term carbon observations. The results will lead to improvement of all the existing long-term CO2 observational networks. This research is funded by the NCAR Director's Office Opportunity Fund.

Scientific Community Interactions (top)

Collaborative Visits to Universities and Agencies

Collaborative visits are encouraged in order to permit MMM staff the opportunity to work closely with colleagues at their institutions on activities related to their mutual research. During FY2001 three staff members took advantage of the opportunities available.

Terry Clark was on collaborative leave to the University of British Columbia from 8 July to 15 September 2001. He immediately left on another leave to Monash University that concluded in late December 2001.

John Latham visited the University of Manchester Institute of Science & Technology from January until October 2001.

Morris Weisman was on collaborative leave as a visiting professor to the State University of New York at Albany from September to November 2001.

Visitor Program

The MMM Visitor Program continues to support the development and growth of science for the division. Administratively, the Visitor Program Office, the Visitor Advisory Committee, and the hosts for each visitor, facilitate each visit. The process is explained on the MMM home page, http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/mmm/visitorpage.htm. Below is a statistical chart showing the various areas from which MMM visitors come.

MMM hosted five Affiliate Scientists during FY2001. They are Lance Bosart, Larry Mahrt, Richard Reed, Bjorn Stevens (with CGD), and Xiaolei Zou. The division was the site for eight ASP postdoctoral fellows, namely, Patrick Chuang, David Dowell, Craig Epifanio, Todd Lane, Sonia Lasher-Trapp, Rebecca Morss, Qing-Hong Zhang and Enrica Bellone part-time. As will be mentioned in the Educational Activities chapter, MMM hosted six SOARS students during the summer of 2001.

As part of the CAA Project, a five-year effort to develop and install an MM5-based numerical weather prediction system in Taiwan, the Mesoscale Prediction Group (MPG) hosted two visitors from Taiwan's Civil Aeronautics Administration for

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a. Visitors David Gurarie and Sergey Danalov discuss a problem with MMM long-term visitor, Jeffrey Weil, during a social gathering. b. Richard Rotunno and his visitor, Rossella Ferretti, during her summer visit.

Workshops & Colloquia

Roelof Bruintjes was an investigator at the SAFARI2000 Workshop, in Zambia, South Africa in September 2001. It was sponsored by NASA with 100 participants. He was also an investigator at the SAFARI2000 Data Workshop in Greenbelt, MD in May 2001. Richard Carbone was session chair at the CRAFT Workshop at UCAR in February 2001. Christopher Davis organized the MMM Workshop on Precipitation Representation in Numerical Models, held at NCAR in Boulder on 15 November 2000. There were 40 participants. Robert L. Gall organized the USWRP/SSC meeting in Washington DC in October 2000 with 40 participants; the meeting for Research Needs of the Private Sector in Palm Springs, CA in November 2000; the 3rd USWRP Science Symposium in Orlando, FL in March 2001 with 100 participants; the AMS Symposium on Precipitation Extremes in Albuquerque, NM in January 2001 with 200 participants. Joseph B. Klemp organized the WRF Planning Meeting in Feburary with 50 participants in Washington DC; another Planning Meeting, the WRF Science Board Meeting, and, with William Skamarock and Wei Wang, the 2nd Annual WRF Users Workshop, and the WRF Users Tutorial, all in August at NCAR. There were 115 attendees at the Workshop and 80 at the Tutorial. Ying-Hwa Kuo was session chair at the MM5 Users Workshop in June, 2001. Margaret LeMone organized the IHOP Planning Meeting at NCAR in April, 2001 (75 participants); was session chair at the CASES meeting in San Francisco, CA in December 2000. Donald Lenschow was the organizer for the Biogeosciences Workshop at NCAR in December 2000. Jielun Sun organized the SGP Workshop at NCAR in March 2001; the CASES-99 meeting at NCAR, sponsored by CORA in March 2001; and the CASES Session at the 2000 Fall AGU meeting in San Francisco, CA with 250 participants. Wei Wang organized the MM5 tutorials that were held in January and June of 2001 at NCAR. She also organized the MM5 Users' Workshop that followed the June tutorial. The workshop had 92 participants.

Editorships of Peer-Reviewed Journals

Roelof Bruintjes, Associate Editor, Journal of Applied Meteorology, March 1999 to present. Christopher A. Davis, Associate Editor, Monthly Weather Review, January 1996 to present. Jimy Dudhia, Associate Editor, Monthly Weather Review, March 2000 to present. Wojciech W. Grabowski, Associate Editor, Atmospheric Science Letters, July 2000 to present and Associate Editor, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorolgical Society, April 2001 to present. Joseph B. Klemp, Publications Commissioner, AMS, January 2001 to present. Ying-Hwa Kuo, Co-chief editor, Monthly Weather Review, 1998 to present and Associate Editor, Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, January 1999 to present. Donald H. Lenschow, Editorial Board, Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 1995 to present and Editorial Board, Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry, 1993 to present. Chin-Hoh Moeng, Editor, Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2000 to present. Richard Rotunno, Associate Editor, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, January 1999 to present. William Skamarock, Editor, Monthly Weather Review, January 2000 to present.

External Scientific, Policy, Educational Committees or Advisory Panels

Roelof Bruintjes Member, AMS Panel on Weather Modification (January 1999 to present) President, Weather Modification Association and Executive Board (1987 to present)

Richard Carbone Member, WMO Commission, Atmospheric Science Advisory Working Group (May 2001) Chairman, AMS Annual Meeting Committee (September 2000 to October 2002)

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William Collins Panelist, United Nations Environmental Program, Panel on the Asian Brown cloud (2001 to present) Panelist, NASA SSP-3 Lidar Peer review (2001 to present)

Jimy Dudhia Member, WRF Science Board

James E. Dye Member, American Geophysical Union (AGU) - Committee on Atmospheric and Space Electricity (1996 to present)

Wojciech Grabowski Member, International Committee on Clouds and Precipitation (ICCP). (August 2000 to present) Chair, GEWEX Cloud System Study, Working Group 4 (January 2001 to present)

Joseph B. Klemp Chair, AMS Information Systems Committee, (1995 to present) Chair, AMS Publications Commission, (1986 to present)

Member, AMS Awards Oversight Committee (January 2001 to present) Member, Earth Interactions Advisory Board (September 2001 to present)

Margaret A. LeMone Member, NAE Program Development Committee, (2001 to 2004); 2nd Vice Chair, NAE Section 12 (2001 to present) Member, University of Chicago Review Committee for Environmental Research Division (1998 to present) Member, NRC Panel: Improving Effectiveness of US Climate Modeling (February 2000 to present) Member, STET Peer Committee (1998 to October 2000)

Member, Review Committee for DOE VTMX Program (January 2001) Member, Board of Atmospheric Science and Climate (2001 to 2004)

Donald Lenschow Member, Surface Ocean Lower Atmosphere Study Planning Committee, (April 2000 to present) Member, NOAA Air Resources Laboratory Review Committee (May 2001)

Jordan G. Powers Advisor, Hong Kong Unversity of Science & Technology AOE Advisory Panel, (May 2000 to February 2001)

Member, Scientific Steering Committee, Mesoscale Alpine Programme Richard Rotunno (MAP), (Jan 2001 to present)

Jielun Sun Member, American Meteorological Society Turbulence and Boundary Layers Committee (1998 to December 2000)

Honors and Awards (top)

Richard Carbone: Cleveland Abbe Award by the American Meteorological Society for distinguished service to Atmospheric Sciences by an individual, January 2001; the NASA/GSFC Distinguished lecturer Award, March 2001

Terry Clark: Aerospace Laurel for the Aviation Week & Space Technology, February 2001

Christopher A. Davis: M3 Publication Award, December 2000

Sudie Kelly: MMM Incentive Award

Charles A. Knight: Fellow with the American Association of the Advancement of Science, September 2001

John Latham: Tyndall Research Fellowship from the University of East Anglia, UK, June 2001 to May 2002

John Michalakes: Fellow with the University of Chicago Computational Institute, February 2001

Roy M. Rasmussen: NCAR Annual Publication Award for two papers, December 2001

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Staff

MMM Staff, FY 2001 (as of 30 September 2001)

Division Director's Office

Stacey Applen Kristin Conrad Robert Gall (Director) Mary Hanson Sudie Kelly Carolyn Kerschner Joachim Kuettner (Senior Research Associate; joint appointment with UOP) Kathleen Morgan Richard Rotunno (Assistant Director) Melvin Shapiro (long-term visitor)

NOAA/NSSL, Mesoscale Research and Application Division, Boulder Diana Bartels John Daugherty Matt Gilmore Robert Hueftle David Jorgensen (Chief) Thomas Matejka Jason Knievel (long-term visitor)

U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) Richard Carbone (WWRP) Sherrie Fredrick Robert Gall (Lead Scientist) Carolyn Kerschner

System Management Group (SMG) William Boyd Jose Castilleja Patricia Waukau (Group Head) Jody Williams

Boundary Layer and Turbulence Group (BLTG)

Sean Burns Robert Grossman (long-term visitor) Jackson Herring (Senior Scientist Emeritus) Kyoko Ikeda Margaret LeMone Donald Lenschow (Group Head; joint appointment with ATD) Chin-Hoh Moeng Peter Sullivan Jielun Sun Penny Warfel (also supports PMG) Jeffrey Weil (long-term visitor)

Cloud Systems Group (CSG)

Roelof Bruintjes (joint appointment with RAP) Terry Clark Janice Coen William Collins (joint appointment with CGD) Wojciech Grabowski Changhai Liu Mitchell Moncrieff (Group Head) James Pasquotto Piotr Smolarkiewicz Xiaoqing Wu (joint appointment with CGD)

Mesoscale Dynamics Group (MDG)

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N. Andrew Crook (joint appointment with RAP) Sherrie Fredrick Joseph Klemp (Group Head) L. Jay Miller Richard Rotunno William Skamarock Chris Snyder Juanzhen Sun (joint appointment with RAP) Stanley Trier John Tuttle Morris Weisman Joan Wilson (also supports MPG)

Mesoscale Prediction Group (MPG)

Dale Barker Al Bourgeois James Bresch Cindy Bruyere Christopher Davis (Deputy Group Head; joint appointment with RAP) Michael Duda Jimy Dudhia David Gill Yong-Run Guo Wei Huang Wesley Jones (long-term visitor) Ying-Hwa (Bill) Kuo (Group Head; also with UOP/COSMIC) Simon Low-Nam Kevin Manning John Michalakes (long-term visitor) Jordan Powers Wei Wang

Physical Meteorology Group (PMG)

Aaron Bansamer Mary Barth (joint appointment with ACD) Daniel Breed (joint appointment with RAP) William Cooper (joint appointment with ASP) Eric Defer (long-term visitor) Geoffrey Dix James Dye William Hall Andrew Heymsfield (Group Head) Charles Knight Nancy Knight John Latham (Senior Research Associate) Sharon Lewis Larry Miloshevich Jason Oppenheimer Edward Patton (long-term visitor) Roy Rassmussen (joint appointment with RAP) John Rosinski (long-term visitor) Marty Venticinque

Affiliate Scientists

Lance Bosart (SUNY) Larry Mahrt (Oregon State University) Richard Reed (University of Washington) Bjorn Stevens (UCLA) Xiaolei Zou (FSU)

https://web.archive.org/web/20040117102851/http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/asr2001/staff_frameset.html[12/27/2016 2:16:09 PM] Untitled Document

MMM Visitors and Collaborators Dates refer to visitor's stay at NCAR during FY2001. No dates are given for collaborators who did not visit NCAR

Abraczinskas, Michael North Carolina Division of Air Quality 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group " " 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group MCNC-North Carolina Environmental Alapaty, Kiran 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Programs Alexander, Curtis University of Oklahoma 11-Sep-01 to 28-Sep-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Anderson, Jeffrey Princeton University GFDL 19-Jul-01 to 22-Jul-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group " " 11-Aug-01 to 10-Aug-03 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Andrejczuk, Miroslaw University of Warsaw 15-Jul-01 to 15-Oct-01 Cloud Systems Group Angevine, Wayne NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Meteorological Research Institute, Aonashi, Kazumasa 26-Feb-01 to 2-Mar-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Japan Atkins, Nolan Lyndon State College, CT 15-Jul-01 to 21-Jul-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group " " 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group NOAA National Environmental Aune, Robert Satellite, Data, and Information 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Service, WI Commonwealth Scientific and Boundary Layer & Turbulence Ayotte, Keith Industrial Research Organization, 5-Sep-00 to 5-Oct-00 Group Australia Boundary Layer & Turbulence Bach, Walter US Army Research Office 26-Mar-01 to 28-Mar-01 Group Baek Min, Kim Seoul National University 18-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Lake Michigan Air Directors Baker, Kirk 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Consortium " " 18-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group NOAA National Severe Storms Baldwin, Michael 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Laboratory, OK Boundary Layer & Turbulence Balsley, Ben University of Colorado 26-Mar-01 to 28-Mar-01 Group Boundary Layer & Turbulence Bandy, Alan Drexel University ****** ******** Group NOAA, Environmental Technology Boundary Layer & Turbulence Banta, Robert 26-Mar-01 to 28-Mar-01 Laboratory Group NOAA Environmental Technology Bao, Jian-Wen 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Laboratory Baran, Anthony UK Meteorological Office 1-Dec-00 to 1-Dec-00 Cloud Systems Group NOAA National Severe Storms Bartels, Diana 8-Sep-92 to 30-Sep-02 NSSL Laboratory Barth, Michael NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Bateman, Monte NASA Marshall Space Flight Center ****** ******** Physical Meteorology Group Baum, Bryan University of Wisconsin ****** ******** Physical Meteorology Group Universidad Nacaional Autonoma de Baumgardner, Darrel ****** ******** Mexico Benjamin, Stanley NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Boundary Layer & Turbulence Berg, Aaron University of Texas 21-Mar-01 to 22-Mar-01 Group Meteorological Research Institute, Bessho, Kotaro 25-Feb-01 to 1-Mar-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Japan Bieberbach, George Logicon Technology Solutions, VA 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Binson, Joseph Arizona State University 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group DLR Institute for Physics of the Birner, Thomas 18-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Atmosphere, Germany NOAA National Centers for Black, Thomas 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Environmental Prediction Office National d'Etudes et de Blanchet, Patrice Recherches Aerospatiales (ONERA), ****** ******** Physical Meteorology Group France Bleck, Riener Los Alamos National Laboratory ****** ******** Mesoscale Dynamics Group Bluestein, Howard University of Oklahoma 15-Jun-01 to 15-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Boundary Layer & Turbulence Blumen, William University of Colorado 26-Mar-01 to 28-Mar-01 Group Blyth, Alan University of Leeds, UK 16-Jul-01 to 19-Jul-01 Physical Meteorology Group State University of New York at Bosart, Lance 8-Jul-01 to 21-Jul-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Albany Brashers, Bart MFG Environmental Inc., WA 18-Jun-01 to 22-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Bretherton, Boundary Layer & Turbulence University of Washington ****** ******** Christopher Group Brewster, Keith University of Oklahoma / CAPS 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Bridgers, George North Carolina Division of Air Quality 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group " " 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Brown, Martin University of North Dakota 16-Oct-00 to 21-Oct-00 Physical Meteorology Group Brown, John M. NOAA Forecast Systems Lab 29-May-01 to 30-May-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group " " 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group " " 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Bruyere, Cindy South African Weather Bureau 21-Jul-01 to 28-Jul-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Bryan, George Pennsylvania State University 26-Jun-01 to 30-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Boundary Layer & Turbulence Burke, Eleanor University of Arizona 21-Mar-01 to 22-Mar-01 Group Institut fur Atmospharenphysik,GKSS, Buschmann, Nicole 7-Jul-00 to 15-Oct-00 Physical Meteorology Group Germany Byon, Jae-Young Seoul National University 18-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Byun, Daewon University of Houston 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Servicio Meteorologico Nacional, Cario, Carlos 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Mexico Carvalho, Anabela Universidade de Aveiro, Portugal 18-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Cooperative Institute for Research in Cassano, Elizabeth 18-Jun-01 to 22-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group the Environmental Sciences (CIRES) Cassano, John University of Colorado ****** ******** Mesoscale Prediction Group Champagne, TRW Space and Electronics Group, CA18-Jun-01 to 22-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Christopher Boundary Layer & Turbulence Chang, Sam Army Research Laboratory 26-Mar-01 to 28-Mar-01 Group Jacques Whitford Environment Ltd, Chartrand, Darryl 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Canada Chen, Shu-Hua Purdue University 1-Dec-99 to 30-Nov-02 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Chen, Jack Washington State University 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group https://web.archive.org/web/20040117102851/http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/asr2001/staff_frameset.html[12/27/2016 2:17:22 PM] Untitled Document

Chen, Shou-Jun Peking University 5-Jun-01 to 5-Oct-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Chen, George National Taiwan University 25-Jul-01 to 27-Jul-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group National Meteorological Center of Chen, Dehui 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group China Chien, Fang-Ching National Taiwan Normal University 24-Jun-01 to 28-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Chin-Bing, S. Naval Research Laboratory ****** ******** Cloud Systems Group Korean Meteorological Research Choi, Jun-Tae 1-Nov-00 to 14-Apr-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Institute (KMRI) Chou, Ming-Dah NASA Goddard Space Flight Center 24-Jun-01 to 26-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Christian, Hugh NASA Marshall Space Flight Center 23-Apr-01 to 27-Apr-01 Physical Meteorology Group U.S. Environmental Protection Chu, Shao-Hang 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Agency, NC Cieleiski, Paul Colorado State University ****** ******** Cloud Systems Group Cifelli, Robert Colorado State University ****** ******** Cloud Systems Group New York State Department of Civerolo, Kevin 18-Jun-01 to 22-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Environmental Control Swiss Federal Institut of Technology Mesoscale Dynamics Group/WRF Clappier, Alain 6-Mar-01 to 30-Sep-01 (EPFL), Zurich Model Clow, Gary U.S. Geological Survey, CO 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group North Carolina Supercomputing Coats, Carlie 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Center Cohan, Daniel Georgia Institute of Technology 18-Jun-01 to 22-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group State University of New York at Stony Colle, Brian 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Brook Collins, Waylon National Weather Service, TX 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group National Weather Service Forecast Colman, Brad 29-May-01 to 30-May-01 USWRP Office, WA Cotter, Christopher Cheshire Cat Computers, Inc. ****** ******** Cloud Systems Group Cotton, William Colorado State University 2-Nov-00 to 2-Nov-00 MMM Seminar Series Boundary Layer & Turbulence Coulter, Richard Argonne National Laboratory, IL 26-Mar-01 to 28-Mar-01 Group Ohio River Forecast Center National Crawford, Link 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Weather Service Boundary Layer & Turbulence Crawford, Tim NOAA Air Resources Laboratory ****** ******** Group Boundary Layer & Turbulence Crescenti, Jerry NOAA Air Resources Laboratory ****** ******** Group Cruickshank, Tyler Utah Division of Air Quality 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Ateneo de Manila University, Cruz, Faye Abigail 18-Jun-01 to 22-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Philippines Cuo, Lan University of Hawaii 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Boundary Layer and Turbulence Danilov, Sergey Russian Academy of Sciences 1-Jul-01 to 31-Aug-01 Group Das, Someshwar NCMRWF/DST, India 18-Jun-01 to 22-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group NOAA National Severe Storms Daughtery, John 8-Sep-92 to 30-Sep-02 National Severe Storms Laboratory Boundary Layer & Turbulence Davis, Kenneth Pennsylvania State University 21-Mar-01 to 22-Mar-01 Group University of Wageningen, The Boundary Layer & Turbulence de Bruin, Henk 26-Mar-01 to 28-Mar-01 Netherlands Group De Martino, Gabriella Istituto Universitario Navale, Italy 21-Jun-00 to 21-Mar-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group DeCaria, Alex Millersville University, PA 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Decker. Steven University of Wisconsin-Madison 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Deconinck, Bernard University of Washington 25-Oct-00 to 13-Nov-00 Boundary Layer and Turbulence Office National d'Etudes et de Defer, Eric 27-Jun-99 to 20-Jan-02 Physical Meteorology Group Recherches Aerospatiales, France Deierling, Wiebke University of Hannover, Germany 14-Mar-01 to 20-Dec-01 Physical Meteorology Group Delle Monache, Luca San Jose State University 18-Jun-01 to 22-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group NOAA National Centers for Derber, John 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Environmental Prediction Boundary Layer & Turbulence Desai, Ankar Pennsylvania State University 21-Mar-01 to 22-Mar-01 Group Desrochers, George WSI Corporation, MA 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Devenyi, Dezso NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group DiBiase, Scott Maricopa Association of Governments 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group NOAA, Atmospheric Turbulence and Boundary Layer & Turbulence Dobosy, Ronald 21-Mar-01 to 22-Mar-01 Diffusion Division Group Boundary Layer & Turbulence Donelan, Mark University of Miami ****** ******** Group Texas Natural Resource Conservation Dornblaster, Bright 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Commission DLR, Institut fur Physik der Dornbrack, Andreas 13-Feb-01 to 31-Aug-01 Cloud System Group Atmosphare, Germany Doyle, James Naval Research Laboratory, CA 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Drake, James The Aerospace Corporation, NE 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Drikakis, Dimitris Queen Mary, University of London ****** ******** Cloud Systems Group DuBois, Dave New Mexico Environment Department 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Durden, Steve Jet Propulsion Laboratory, CA ****** ******** Physical Meteorology Group Dyer, Jamie University of Georgia 18-Jun-01 to 22-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group NOAA, Atmospheric Turbulence and Boundary Layer & Turbulence Eckmann, Richard 26-Mar-01 to 28-Mar-01 Diffusion Division Group Boundary Layer & Turbulence Eichinger, William University of Iowa 26-Mar-01 to 28-Mar-01 Group NOAA National Centers for Ek, Michael 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Environmental Prediction Eldridge, Glenn Nothrup Grumman 19-Nov-99 to 30-Sep-01 MMM Systems Group Ellanna, Dayne University of Alaska 18-Jun-01 to 22-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Massachusetts Institute of Emanuel, Kerry ****** ******** Mesoscale Dynamics Group Technology Esmaeili-Mahani, University of Arizona 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Shayeste Evans, Jason Yale University 18-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Faccani, Claudia University of L'Aquila, Italy 6-Aug-01 to 30-Sep-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group South Dakota School of Mines & Farley, Richard 29-Jan-01 to 3-Feb-01 Cloud Systems Group Technology " " 19-Feb-01 to 24-Feb-01 Cloud Systems Group " " 2-Apr-01 to 7-Apr-01 Cloud Systems Group Farrar, Michael Air Force Weather Agency, NE 1-May-00 to 30-Sep-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group NOAA, Environmental Technology Feingold, Graham ****** ******** Physical Meteorology Group Laboratory Ferreira, Joana Universidade de Aveiro, Portugal 18-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Ferretti, Rossella University of L'Aquila, Italy 17-Jun-01 to 30-Jun-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Meteorological Research Flight Field, Paul 2-Jul-01 to 29-Sep-01 Physical Meteorology Group Center, UK Boundary Layer & Turbulence French, Andrew US Department of Agriculture, 21-Mar-01 to 22-Mar-01 Group Boundary Layer & Turbulence French, Jeff NOAA Air Resources Lab ****** ******** Group Friedl, Hans unaffiliated 23-Feb-98 to 22-Feb-01 Physical Meteorology Group NOAA, Environmental Technology Boundary Layer and Turbulence Frisch, Shelby 7-Feb-01 to 23-Feb-01 Laboratory Group Boundary Layer and Turbulence " " 5-Apr-01 to 16-Apr-01 https://web.archive.org/web/20040117102851/http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/asr2001/staff_frameset.html[12/27/2016 2:17:22 PM] Untitled Document

Group Fritsch, J. Michael Pennsylvania State University 29-May-01 to 30-May-01 USWRP Boundary Layer & Turbulence Fritts, David Colorado Research Associates (CoRA) 26-Mar-01 to 28-Mar-01 Group Swiss Federal Institut of Technology Fuhrer, Oliver ****** ******** Mesoscale Dynamics Group (EPFL), Zurich Fung, Jimmy Chi- The Hong Kong University of Science 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Hung and Technology " " 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Gallagher, Daniel Saint Louis University 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Center for Analysis and Prediction of Gao, Jidong 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Storms (CAPS), OK Gao, Xiaogang University of Arizona 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Gao, Wei Colorado State University 24-Sep-01 to 1-Apr-02 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Gayno, George Air Force Weather Agency, NE 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group " " 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group University of Santiago de Compostela, Gelpi, Ivan Rodriguez 8-Jan-01 to 27-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Spain Boundary Layer & Turbulence Gerber, Hermann Gerber Scientific Inc., CO 14-Feb-01 to 17-Feb-01 Group Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Gilmore, Matthew 25-Feb-00 to 1-Mar-02 National Severe Storms Meteorological Studies (CIMMS) Goates, Steve Firnspiegel LLC 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Gochis, David University of Arizona 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group US Environmental Protection Agency, Golden, Kevin 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Region 8 NOAA National Severe Storms Gong, Jiandong 27-Aug-01 to 28-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Laboratory, OK NOAA National Center for Gopalakrishnan, S. 13-Aug-01 to 24-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Environmental Predictions Meteorological Service of New Gordon, Neil 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Zealand Grainger, Cedric University of North Dakota ****** ******** Physical Meteorology Group Anthony Grasso, Lewis Colorado State University 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Grell, Georg NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Boundary Layer & Turbulence Grossman, Robert University of Colorado 16-Jul-93 to 30-Sep-02 Group Grubisic, Vanda Desert Research Insitute, NV 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Grundstein, Andrew University of Georgia 18-Jun-01 to 22-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Boundary Layer & Turbulence Guararie, David Case Western Reserve University, OH 18-Dec-00 to 15-Jan-01 Group Boundary Layer & Turbulence " " 12-Mar-01 to 16-Mar-01 Group Boundary Layer & Turbulence " " 7-May-01 to 27-Aug-01 Group Gutierrez, Jorge University of Costa Rica 18-Jun-01 to 22-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Hakim, Gregory University of Washington ******* ******** Mesoscale Dynamics Group Hallett, John Desert Research Institute (DRI), NV 29-May-01 to 30-May-01 US Weather Research Program Hamill, Thomas NOAA Climate Diagnostics Center 25-Jan-01 to 25-Jan-01 MMM Seminar Series Hannigan, Michael P. University of Colorado ****** ******** Physical Meteorology Group Harasti, Paul Tropical Prediction Center ****** ******** Mesoscale Dynamics Group Hart, Leslie NOAA Forecast System Laboratory ****** ******** Mesoscale Dynamics Group University of Wageningen, The Boundary Layer & Turbulence Hartogensis, Oscar 26-Mar-01 to 28-Mar-01 Netherlands Group Air Force Weather Agency Hausman, Scott 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Headquarters, NE Hawkins, James Naval Research Laboratory, CA 16-Apr-01 to 21-Apr-01 Cloud Systems Group Hayes, Elizabeth SGI, Inc. 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group He, Zuwen University of Miami ****** ******** Mesoscale Dynamics Group Heim, Joe Ohio River Forecast Center 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Henmi, Teizi Army Research Laboratory, NM 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Meteorological Service of New Henry, Norm 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Zealand Herndon, Derrick Mississippi State University 18-Jun-01 to 22-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Hildebrand, Peter NASA 20-Mar-01 to 27-Mar-01 MMM Director's Office Central Research Institute of Electric Hirakuchi, Hiromaru 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Power Industry, Japan Holt, Teddy Naval Research Laboratory, CA 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Hong, Song You Yonsei University, Korea 7-Aug-01 to 18-Aug-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Hrgovcic, Joseph Enron Corporation, TX 18-Jun-01 to 22-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Hsieh, Jen-Shan Cornell University 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Civil Aeronauatics Administration Hsu (Shu), Yi Ping 14-Jun-01 to 7-Sep-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group (CAA), Taiwan Boundary Layer & Turbulence Hu, Xin-Zhang Yale University ****** ******** Group Huang, Cheng-Yung National Central University, Taiwan 7-Jan-01 to 20-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group U.S. Minerals Management Service, Huang, Chin-Hua 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group LA Huang, Ching-Yuang National Central University, Taiwan 27-Aug-01 to 8-Sep-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Boundary Layer & Turbulence Huckle, Edward University of California, Los Angeles 28-Aug-01 to 30-Aug-01 Group NOAA National Severe Storms Hueftle, Robert 8-Sep-92 to 30-Sep-02 National Severe Storms Laboratory Weather Services International Hutchinson, Todd 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Corporation, MA USDA Agricultural Research Service, Boundary Layer & Turbulence Jackson, Thomas ****** ******** Hydrology Laboratory, MD Group Jacobson, Keith 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Jakobs, Hermann University of Cologne, Germany 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group James, Richard Pennsylvania State University 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Chinese Academy of Meteorological Jin, Zhiyan 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Science New Jersey Dept Environmental John, Gregory 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Protection Johnson, Matthew Iowa Air Quality Bureau 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Johnson, Richard Colorado State University ****** ******** Cloud Systems Group Jones, Wesley Professional Services, SGI, CO 28-Jul-99 to 30-Sep-02 Mesoscale Prediction Group NOAA National Severe Storms Jorgensen, David 8-Sep-92 to 30-Sep-02 National Severe Storms Laboratory Joseph, Binson Arizona State University 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Joseph, Everette Howard University, D.C. 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Kahyaoglu, Julide Desert Research Institute 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group NOAA National Severe Storms Kain, Jack ****** ******** Mesoscale Prediction Group Laboratory Illinois Environmental Protection Kaleel, Robert 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Agency Boundary Layer & Turbulence Kelley, Neil National Wind Technology Center ****** ******** Group Boundary Layer & Turbulence Kelly, Mark Pennsylvania State University 5-Aug-01 to 11-Aug-01 Group Boundary Layer & Turbulence Kerr, Robert University of Arizona 9-Mar-01 to 18-Mar-01 https://web.archive.org/web/20040117102851/http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/asr2001/staff_frameset.html[12/27/2016 2:17:22 PM] Untitled Document

Group " " 31-May-01 to 1-Jun-01 Cloud Systems Group " " 10-Jul-01 to 13-Jul-01 Cloud Systems Group Kim, Dongsoo NOAA Forecast Systems Lab 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Boundary Layer & Turbulence Kim, Siwan Seoul National University 27-Aug-01 to 30-Jun-02 Group Boundary Layer & Turbulence Kimura, Yoshifumi University of Nagoya, Japan 10-Aug-00 to 30-Sep-02 Group Kimura, Yosuke University of Texas 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group King, D. Naval Research Laboratory, CA ****** ******** Cloud Systems Group Illinois Environmental Protection King. Steven 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Agency Kleist, Daryl University of Wisconsin-Madison 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Knievel, Jason Colorado State University 4-Sep-01 to 3-Sep-02 NSSL Knoll, Dana Los Alamos National Laboratory 23-Jul-01 to 25-Jul-01 Cloud Systems Group Koch, Steven NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory 27-Oct-00 to 27-Oct-00 Mesoscale Dynamics Group " " 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Meteorological Research Institute, Kohno, Nadao 25-Feb-01 to 1-Mar-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Japan Kong, Kwan-Yin City College of New York 18-Jun-01 to 22-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Koracin, Darko Desert Research Institute, NV 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Kreidenweis, Sonia Colorado State University ****** ******** Physical Meteorology Group Krider, E. Philip University of Arizona ****** ******** Physical Meteorology Group Boundary Layer & Turbulence Kustas, William U.S. Department of Agriculture 21-Mar-01 to 22-Mar-01 Group Kwon, Young Pennsylvania State University 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Hong Kong University of Science & Lam, Sai-Lap 18-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Technology Lampert, Art Compaq Inc., CO 1-Dec-98 to 30-Nov-01 MMM Systems Group Lang, Timothy Harvard University 28-Mar-01 to 6-Apr-01 Cloud Systems Group Office National d'Etudes et de Laroche, Pierre ****** ******** Physical Meteorology Group Recherches Aerospatiales, France Larson, Vincent University of Wisconsin 22-Mar-01 to 22-Mar-01 MMM Seminar Series Lasher-Trapp, Sonia Texas A & M University 3-Aug-98 to 31-Oct-02 Physical Meteorology Group U.S. Environmental Protection Latimer, Douglas 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Agency, Region 8 Hong Kong University of Science and Lau, Alexis K H 24-Jun-01 to 18-Aug-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Technology Laursen, Richard Boston University ****** ******** Physical Meteorology Group Lawson, Paul SPEC, Inc., CO ****** ******** Physical Meteorology Group Leary, Colleen Texas Tech University 29-May-01 to 30-May-01 USWRP Lee, Dong-Kyou Seoul National University 23-Jun-01 to 8-Jul-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Lee, Jin-Luen NOAA Forecast System Laboratory 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Lee, Sai Ming Hong Kong Observatory 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Boundary Layer & Turbulence Lee, Xuhui Yale University ****** ******** Group Lenning, Eric National Weather Service, MO 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Leung, Kenneth Kai Evironmental Protection Department, 18-Jun-01 to 22-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Ming Hong Kong Leung, L. Ruby Pacific Northwest National Laboratory 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Li, Jialun University of Arizona 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Liang, Xin-Zhong Illinois State Water Survey 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Lim, Gyu-Ho Seoul National University 7-Feb-01 to 11-Feb-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Linn, Rodman Los Alamos National Laboratory 21-May-01 to 26-May-01 Cloud Sysytems Group Liou, Yuei-An National Central University, Taiwan 7-Jan-01 to 20-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Civil Aeronauatics Administration Liu, Hui-Lin (Maria) 14-Jun-01 to 7-Sep-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group (CAA), Taiwan Liu, Yuqiong University of Arizona 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Luces, Saba U.S. Army Research Laboratory, NM 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Boundary Layer & Turbulence Lundquist, Julie University of Colorado 26-Mar-01 to 28-Mar-01 Group Ma, Shuqing Beijing Meteorological Bureau 24-Jul-01 to 28-Jul-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group MacDonald, AlexanderNOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Mach, Doug NASA Marshall Space Flight Center ****** ******** Physical Meteorology Group Boundary Layer & Turbulence Mahrt, Larry Oregon State University 20-Mar-01 to 5-Apr-01 Group Boundary Layer & Turbulence Malinowski, S.P. Warsaw University ****** ******** Group NASA Applied Meteorology Unit, Manobianco, John 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group ENSCO, FL NOAA National Severe Storms Mansell, Edward 15-Nov-00 to 17-Nov-00 Physical Meteorology Group Laboratory Mao, Qi Tennessee Valley Authority 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Margolin, Len Los Alamos National Laboratory 5-Dec-00 to 9-Dec-00 Cloud Systems Group " " 11-Feb-01 to 17-Feb-01 Cloud Systems Group " " 11-Jun-01 to 16-Jun-01 Cloud Systems Group " " 22-Jul-01 to 28-Jul-01 Cloud Systems Group Markowski, Paul Pennsylvania State University 21-May-01 to 31-May-01 National Severe Storms Lab Meteorological Research Institute, Mashiko, Wataru 25-Feb-01 to 1-Mar-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Japan Mass, Clifford University of Washington 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group NOAA National Severe Storms Matejka, Thomas 8-Sep-92 to 30-Sep-02 National Severe Storms Lab Laboratory Matsui, Toshihisa University of South Carolina 18-Jun-01 to 22-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Boundary Layer & Turbulence Mayor, Shane Universtiy of Wisconsin, Madison 8-Nov-00 to 8-Nov-00 Group Air Force Weather Agency / The McAtee, Michael 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Aerospace Corporation McCormick, Daniel Air Force Weather Agency ****** ******** Mesoscale Dynamics Group McGaughey, Gary University of Texas 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group McGinley, John National Weather Service, MD 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group North Carolina Supercomputing McHenry, John 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Center Boundary Layer & Turbulence McPherson, Ian National Research Council, Canada ****** ******** Group McQueen, Jeffery National Weather Service, MD 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group McTaggart-Cowan, McGill University 18-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Ron Boundary Layer & Turbulence McWilliams, James University of California, Los Angeles ****** ******** Group Meier, Charles Air Force Weather Agency / Harris 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group (Chuck) Corporation Metallo, Maria Chiara ESA S.a.s., Italy 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Michalakes, John Argonne National Laboratory 12-Oct-98 to 1-Oct-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Middlecoff, Jacques NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory 28-Aug-01 to 27-Aug-02 Mesoscale Prediction Group Boundary Layer & Turbulence Miller, David University of Connecticut 26-Mar-01 to 28-Mar-01 Group Miller, Patricia NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group NOAA National Center for Mitchell, Kenneth 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Environmental Predictions

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Moelders, Nicole University of Leipzig, Germany 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group European Virtual Engineering EUVE, Montavez, Juan Pedro 18-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Spain Morgan, Michael University of Wisconsin at Madison 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group " " 8-Jun-01 to 16-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Moss, Donald Univ. Alabama, Huntsville 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Mostovoi, Gueorgui Mississippi State University 18-Jun-01 to 22-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Mote, Thomas University of Georgia 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Mousa Kyoto University, Japan 1-Mar-01 to 2-Mar-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Mullen, Steven University of Arizona 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Muraki, David University of British Columbia 26-Feb-01 to 4-Mar-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group " Simon Frasier University, Canada 25-May-01 to 23-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Murray, Natalie University of Arizona ****** ******** Physical Meteorology Group Japan Atomic Energy Research Nagai, Haruyasu 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Institute NOAA Environmental Technology Laboratory and Cooperative Institute Nance, Louisa 18-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group for Research in the Environmental Sciences (CIRES) NOAA, Atmospheric Turbulence and Boundary Layer & Turbulence Nappo, Carmen 26-Mar-01 to 28-Mar-01 Diffusion Division Group Narismam, Gemma Macquarie University, Australia 18-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Teresa Nasiri, Shaima University of Wisconsin ****** ******** Physical Meteorology Group Naveau, Phillippe Ecole Polytechnique, France 1-Aug-01 to 1-Oct-01 Cloud Systems Group NOAA, Environmental Technology Boundary Layer & Turbulence Newsom, Rob 26-Mar-01 to 28-Mar-01 Laboratory Group Earth Tech Atmospheric Studies Niedzialek, Joanna 18-Jun-01 to 22-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Group, MA Japan Atomic Energy Research Nishizawa, Masato 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Institute Niyogi, Dev dutta S. North Carolina State University 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Boundary Layer & Turbulence Noble, John Army Research Laboratory 26-Mar-01 to 28-Mar-01 Group Nolan, David GFDL Princeton University 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Noone, Kevin Stockholm University 13-Jul-01 to 11-Aug-01 Physical Meteorology Group State University of NewYork at Stony Olson, Joseph 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Brook Meteorological Research Institute, Orikasa, Narihiro 18-Oct-99 to 16-Oct-00 Physical Meteorology Group Japan " " 23-Sep-01 to 3-Oct-01 Physical Meteorology Group Ortega, Steven Compaq Inc., CO 1-Dec-98 to 30-Nov-01 MMM Systems Group Otkin, Jason University of Wisconsin-Madison 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Otte, Tanya NOAA Air Resources Laboratory 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Boundary Layer and Turbulence Patton, Edward Pennsylvania State University 1-Jul-97 to 5-Nov-02 Group Peng, Grace The Aerospace Corporation, CA 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group " " 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Pesche, Tom Alpine Geophysics 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Peters, Brian Meteological Service of New Zealand 18-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Petersen, Gudrun University of Oslo, Norway 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Nina NOAA National Centers for Petersen, Ralph 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Environmental Prediction Peterson, Walt Colorado State University Cloud Systems Group Phillips, Vaughn GFDL Princeton University 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Piacsek, S. Naval Research Laboratory, CA Cloud Systems Group Pietrowicz, Joseph St. Louis University 18-Jun-01 to 22-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Pietrycha, Albert Texas Tech Universtiy 1-Apr-01 to 31-Mar-02 National Severe Storms Lab Pleim, Jonathan NOAA Air Resources Laboratory 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group 88th Weather Squadron U.S. Air Polander, John 18-Jun-01 to 22-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Force, OH Posselt, Derek University of Wisconsin-Madison 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group " " 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Boundary Layer & Turbulence Poulos, Gregory Colorado Research Associates (CoRA) 26-Mar-01 to 28-Mar-01 Group Prusa, Joseph Iowa State University 10-Mar-01 to 17-Mar-01 Cloud Systems Group " " 1-Apr-01 to 1-Aug-01 Cloud Systems Group Pu, Zhao-Xia NASA Goddard Space Flight Center 28-May-01 to 30-May-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group NOAA National Center for Purser, R. James 27-Nov-00 to 8-Dec-00 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Environmental Predictions " " 5-Mar-01 to 16-Mar-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group " " 13-Aug-01 to 24-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Qian, Jian-Hua Columbia University, NY 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Raga, Graciela ****** ******** Physical Meteorology Group Mexico Rairigh, Ken State of Wyoming DEQ 18-Jun-01 to 22-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Rampanelli, Gabriele University of Trento, Italy 28-Jun-01 to 14-Jul-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Rao, Polasam IBM India Research Laboratory 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group NOAA National Severe Storms Rasmussen, Erik 5-Feb-96 to 30-Sep-01 National Severe Storms Lab Laboratory Ray, Eric NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Texas Natural Resource Conservation Red, James 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Commission Reddy, Remata Jackson State University, MS 18-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Reed, Richard University of Washington ****** ******** Mesoscale Prediction Group Boundary Layer & Turbulence Reen, Brian Pennsylvania State University 21-Mar-01 to 22-Mar-01 Group Rider, Kevin Colorado School of Mines ****** ******** Physical Meteorology Group Boundary Layer & Turbulence Riggin, Dennis Colorado Research Associates (CoRA) 26-Mar-01 to 28-Mar-01 Group ACS Inc. / Air Force Weather Agency, Ritz, Richard 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group NE Boundary Layer & Turbulence Robinson, Michael National Wind Technology Center ****** ******** Group Maui High Performance Computing Roe, Kevin 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Center (MHPCC) Romine, Glen University of Illinois 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Rosinski, Jan unaffiliated 1-Mar-82 to 30-Sep-02 Physical Meteorology Group Rutledge, Steven Colorado State University ****** ******** Cloud Systems Group Salutsi, E. Naval Research Laboratory ****** ******** Cloud Systems Group Sanhueza, Pedro University of Tennessee 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Schlatter, Thomas NOAA Office of Atmospheric Research5-Mar-99 to 30-Sep-01 US Weather Research Program " " 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Schauer, Jamie University of Wisconsin ****** ******** Physical Meteorology Group U.S. Dept of Agriculture, Hydrology & Boundary Layer & Turbulence Schmugge, Thomas 21-Mar-01 to 22-Mar-01 Remote Sensing Laboratory, MD Group Schultz, Paul NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Meteorological Research Institute, Seko, Hiromu 26-Feb-01 to 2-Mar-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Japan

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NOAA Environmental Technical Boundary Layer & Turbulence Senff, Christoph 21-Mar-01 to 22-Mar-01 Laboratory Group Maryland Department of the Seybold, Matthew 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Environment NOAA Environmental Technical Shapiro, Melvin 4-Mar-98 to 31-May-02 US Weather Research Program Laboratory Shaw, Raymond Michigan Tech University 8-Nov-00 to 8-Nov-00 Physical Meteorology Group " " 22-May-01 to 24-May-01 Physical Meteorology Group Shaw, Brent NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group " " 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Korean Meteorological Administration Shin, Dong-Hyun 9-Sep-01 to 2-Dec-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group (KMA) Shnaydman, Volf New Jersey State University 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Meteorological Research Institute, Shoji, Yoshinori 1-Mar-01 to 2-Mar-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Japan Royal Netherlands Meteorological Boundary Layer & Turbulence Siebesma, Pier ****** ******** Institute (KNMI), The Netherlands Group Sikora, Tomasz Desert Research Institute (DRI), NV 21-May-01 to 7-Jul-01 Cloud Systems Group Energy Environmental Mgmt, Inc., Simmons, Larry 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group PA Simunich, KathyLee Argonne National Laboratory, IL 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Boundary Layer & Turbulence Skelly, Brian University of Connecticut 26-Mar-01 to 28-Mar-01 Group Smallcomb, National Weather Service, TX 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Christopher Smart, John NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Texas Natural Resource Conservation Smith, Jim 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Commission NOAA National Severe Storms Smull, Bradley 29-May-01 to 30-May-01 US Weather Research Program Laboratory / University of Washington Airforce Aeronautical & Technological Soong, Wei-Kuo 24-Jul-01 to 27-Jul-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group School, CO Boundary Layer & Turbulence Stauffer, David Pennsylvania State University 21-Mar-01 to 22-Mar-01 Group " " 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Steenburgh, Jim University of Utah 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group NOAA National Severe Storms Stensrud, David 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Laboratory Stevens, Bjorn University of California, Los Angeles 23-Jun-01 to 26-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Stevens, Duane University of Hawaii 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group " " 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Stobie, James FAA, Washington D.C. 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Sutfin, Miller Nothrup Grumman 19-Nov-99 to 30-Sep-02 MMM Systems Group Air Force Weather Agency Swanson, Robert 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Headquarters, NE Szczyrba, Igor University of Northern Colorado ****** ******** Cloud Systems Group Szumowski, Marcin Desert Research Institute (DRI), NV 22-Jun-01 to 26-Jun-01 Cloud Systems Group T-Mohana Sundram, Washington State University 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Irra Takemi, Tetsuya Osaka University, Japan 25-May-01 to 15-Jan-02 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Meteorological Research Institute, Takishita, Yoichi 25-Feb-01 to 1-Mar-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Japan Meteorological Research Institute, Takizawa, Katsuhiko 25-Feb-01 to 1-Mar-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Japan Central Research Institute of Electric Tamura, Hidetoshi 18-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Power Industry, Japan Tanaka, Y Tokyo Institute of Technology 9-Dec-00 to 16-Dec-00 Mesoscale Prediction Group Tao, Wei-Kuo NASA Goddard Space Flight Center 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group " " 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Taylor, John Argonne National Laboratory, IL 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Tenerelli, Joseph University of Miami 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Tilley, Jeff University of Alaska Fairbanks 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group " " 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Tollerud, Edward NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Byrd Polar Research Center, Ohio Toracinta, Rick 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group State University " " 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group NOAA National Severe Storms Trapp, Jeffrey 3-Aug-98 to 30-Sep-02 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Laboratory Radex Inc./ Air Force Research Triantafillou, Susan 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Laboratory, MA Tsuda, Toshitaka Kyoto University, Japan 1-Mar-01 to 2-Mar-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Tuccillo, Jim IBM, Science and Technology, GA 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Twohy, Cindy Oregon State University ****** ******** Physical Meteorology Group Meteorological Research Institute, Ueno, Mitsuru 25-Feb-01 to 1-Mar-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Japan Boundary Layer & Turbulence Vali, Gabor University of Wyoming ****** ******** Group Boundary Layer & Turbulence Vandemark, Douglas NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ****** ******** Group Van Knowe, Glenn MESO Inc., NY 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Vaughan, Joseph Washington State University 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Velicogna, Isabella University of Colorado 15-Mar-01 to 15-Mar-01 MMM Seminar Series Vellore, Ramesh Desert Research Institute, NV 18-Jun-01 to 22-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Boundary Layer & Turbulence Vickers, Dean Oregon State University 21-Mar-01 to 22-Mar-01 Group Vila-Guerau de Wageningen University, The 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Arellano, J Netherlands Vizy, Edward Cornell University 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Wang, Chi-Ming National Central University, Taiwan 7-Jan-01 to 20-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Wang, Zion University of California at Riverside 18-Jun-01 to 22-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Wang, Lishui Beijing Meteorological Bureau 24-Jul-01 to 28-Jul-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Wang, Houjun University of Central Florida 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Warn-Varnas, Alex Naval Research Laboratory 16-Apr-01 to 21-Apr-01 Cloud Systems Group Kansas Department of Health and Watson, Douglas 18-Jun-01 to 22-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Environment European Centre for Medium Range Wedi, Nils ****** ******** Cloud Systems Group Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), UK Wee, Tae-Kwon Seoul National University 1-Jun-00 to 30-Nov-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group University of Colorado / Cooperative Boundary Layer & Turbulence Weil, Jeffrey Institute for Research in the 16-May-90 to 30-Sep-02 Group Environmental Sciences (CIRES) Weygandt, Steve NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Whitaker, Jeffrey NOAA Climate Diagnostics Center ****** ******** Mesoscale Dynamics Group NOAA National Severe Storm Wicker, Louis 13-Aug-01 to 20-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Laboratory Wierzbicki, Andrzej University of South Alabama, Mobile ****** ******** Physical Meteorology Group Wilhelmson, Robert University of Illinois 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Willis, Paul NOAA Hurricane Research Laboratory 12-Mar-01 to 17-Mar-01 Physical Meteorology Group Wilson, Andrew Harvard Center for Risk Analysis 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Wilwerding, Jerry Harris Corporation, NE 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group

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88th Weather Squadron, U.S. Air Wohlwend, Christian 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Force, OH Wong, David Lockheed Martin, CO 25-Jan-01 to 27-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Wu, YuLing University of Alabama in Huntsville 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Wu, Chun-Chieh National Taiwan University 16-Jan-01 to 18-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group NOAA National Centers for Wu, Wanshu ****** ******** Mesoscale Dynamics Group Environmental Prediction Wyser, Klaus Gothenburg University, Sweden 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Wyszogrodzki, University of Warsaw 20-Oct-00 to 20-Dec-00 Cloud Systems Group Andrzej " Los Alamos National Laboratory 25-Jun-01 to 25-Aug-01 Cloud Systems Group Xiao, Feng Tokyo Institute of Technology 9-Dec-00 to 16-Dec-00 Mesoscale Prediction Group Xiao, Qingnong Florida State University 28-May-01 to 30-May-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group " " 5-Aug-01 to 11-Aug-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group MCNC-North Carolina Environmental Xiu, Aijun 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Programs New Mexico Institute of Mining Xu, Jianjun 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Technology NOAA National Severe Storms Xu, Qin 27-Aug-01 to 28-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Laboratory Xue, Ming University of Oklahoma / CAPS 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Yang, Ming-Jen Chinese Culture University, Taiwan 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Yang, Ping Texas A & M University ****** ******** Physical Meteorology Group Yang, Baozhong Beijing Meteorological Bureau 24-Jul-01 to 28-Jul-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Yeh, His-Chyi Aletheia University, Taiwan 26-Jul-01 to 31-Aug-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group (Richard) Yeung, Hon-Yin The Hong Kong Observatory 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Yin, Dazhong National Research Council, Canada 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Environmental Protection Yu, Linda 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Department, China Zack, John MESO Inc., NY 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Zaengl, Guenther University of Munich, Germany 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Zardi, Dino University of Trento, Italy 7-Apr-01 to 1-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Zeng, Zhihua China 18-Jun-01 to 22-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Zhang, Chaolin Beijing Meteorological Bureau 24-Jul-01 to 28-Jul-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Zhang, Da-Lin University of Maryland 14-Feb-01 to 17-Feb-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Zhang, Fuqing North Carolina State University 17-Feb-00 to 31-Aug-01 US Weather Research Program Zhang, Guangjun Scripps Institution of Oceanography ****** ******** Cloud Systems Group Zhang, Jing University of Alaska Fairbanks 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Zhang, Yongxin University of Hawaii at Manoa 13-Aug-01 to 17-Aug-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Zheng, Tao Rutgers University 18-Jun-01 to 22-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Zhong, Shiyuan Pacific Northwest National Laboratory 25-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group (Sharon) National Research Center for Marine Boundary Layer and Turbulence Zhou, Ming-Yu 27-Sep-00 to 10-Mar-01 Environment, Beijing, China Group Boundary Layer and Turbulence " " 28-Jun-01 to 30-Nov-01 Group Zhou, Ying Harvard Center for Risk Analysis 8-Jan-01 to 12-Jan-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Zhou, Yongmei University of British Columbia 18-Jun-01 to 22-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Zipser, Edward University of Utah 14-May-01 to 14-Jun-01 Physical Meteorology Group Zou, Xiaolei Florida State University 9-Jul-01 to 14-Jul-01 Mesoscale Dynamics Group Austrian Research Centers Zueger, Johann 18-Jun-01 to 27-Jun-01 Mesoscale Prediction Group Seibersdorf Zupanski, Milija Colorado State University 23-Aug-01 to 23-Aug-01 MMM Seminar Series Zupanski, Dusanka Colorado State University 23-Aug-01 to 23-Aug-01 MMM Seminar Series

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INTRODUCTION

MISSION

The central mission of the Research Applications Program is consonant with one of the stated missions of NCAR and UCAR: to perform and facilitate the transfer of technology developed in the atmospheric sciences to the public and private sectors. The motivation for this is embodied in what Walter O. Roberts, the first Director of NCAR, termed "science in service to society." Through a program of directed research aimed at solving practical problems, RAP contributes to the depth of fundamental understanding in atmospheric science and develops new sources of support for such research. Subsequently, through a program of technology transfer, RAP expands the reach of atmospheric science into weather-sensitive human endeavors that are not currently making practical use of weather information or are using such information in naïve or inefficient ways. Educating potential users of weather information in the "art of the possible" is an important element in securing new investments in research and development.

HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

The Research Applications Program began as a small effort within the Atmospheric Technology Division to investigate, and later detect, microbursts. This core group of scientists - J. Wilson, C. Mueller, C. Kessinger and R. Roberts - is still at RAP nearly 20 years later. The program became a separate NCAR division in 1989 and has expanded dramatically, both in scientific focus and size, since then. RAP currently has a staff of 120, with 48 scientists, 45 software engineers, 16 managers/administrative staff, and 11 student assistants. The FY01 budget was approximately $21M, of which $8.7M in modified total direct costs were generated for the institution.

RAP is unique within NCAR for its emphases on directed research and technology transfer, its near-total reliance on non-NSF funding, and its matrix organization that blends scientific and engineering expertise to accomplish programmatic objectives. RAP is a dynamic organization that is aggressive in pursuing significant new opportunities and successful in delivering what it promises. The division has clearly benefited from the prestige and credibility of its parent institution, NCAR; RAP has, in turn, waved the NCAR banner worldwide, contributing to the organization's visibility and reputation for excellence.

APPROACH TO TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER

The division's research and development emphases are: in-flight icing; snowfall and freezing precipitation; convective weather forecasting; ceiling and visibility; atmospheric turbulence; numerical weather prediction; land-surface modeling; remote sensing of precipitation; precipitation physics; hybrid automated forecast systems; and algorithm development/enhancement. Important recent accomplishments are highlighted in this Annual Scientific Report.

The division is also engaged in technology transfer programs for airport weather systems in Taiwan, Kuwait, and Korea; a prototype four-dimensional weather system to support operations at five Army test ranges; an Aviation Gridded Forecast System (AGFS) for the FAA; and Aviation Weather Information systems for NASA.

STRATEGIC GOALS

RAP's principal scientific goal is the attainment of an improved operational capability for detection, warning, and forecasting significant weather events. Its principal applications goal is the transfer of that capability to governmental and private sectors through such mechanisms as advanced algorithms or software systems; complete hardware/software systems; education; training; and expert advice.

- Brant Foote, Program Director

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MOST SIGNIFICANT ACHIEVEMENTS

[4DWxSystems] [Taiwan] [Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System] [NCWF]

A. Four-Dimensional Weather Depiction Systems *

Over the past four years, RAP, in conjunction with MMM, has developed and implemented a research-grade operational weather analysis and forecast capability known as the Four Dimensional Weather System (4DWX) for the U.S. Army's Test and Evaluation Command (ATEC). The 4DWX system was created at NCAR to help ATEC address its need for improved meteorological capabilities at their test ranges in light of more stringent materiel performance requirements, compressed development time and acquisition cycles, and the increasing use of modeling and virtual testing techniques. The new systems have brought the ATEC ranges and proving grounds into the 21st century, providing much-needed data processing, modeling and display improvements.

In the course of developing the systems several important developments have been made. First is the implementation of a mesoscale forecast system that operates at 1.1-km horizontal grid spacing resolution. This represents the highest resolution operational mesoscale forecasting system in the world. At this resolution, a number of shortcomings were identified in MM5 pertaining to numerical instabilities over modeled regions with large terrain gradients. Solutions to these problems were later incorporated into the standard community version of MM5. A second major accomplishment has been the development of a real-time four-dimensional data assimilation (RT-FDDA) system, which uses Newtonian relaxation to assimilate all available observations and nudge the MM5 output towards them. The greatly improved resultant analysis fields are then used to initialize frequent forecast cycles of short duration, giving the Army range forecaster access to the current 3D atmospheric conditions and short term forecasts and allowing him to provide precise guidance to range customers for optimum test window selection. And finally, a version of MM5 has been created which runs on a distributed memory Linux PC cluster system, using the Scaleable Coherent Interface (SCI) technology. NCAR is the first organization to successfully implement MM5 on an SCI- based system, which yields the highest performance to cost ratio achievable with PC platforms. This development allows RT-FDDA to be implemented at all of the ATEC ranges (and in any other application) at a modest price.

The 4DWX program clearly integrates cutting edge science and engineering. New funding (an estimated $4M in FY02) will support continued advances in both arenas within RAP and MMM. The benefit to the Army, and to the general public, from improving the safety and efficiency of weapons testing is of real national importance.

One of the test ranges is situated in the Great Basin Desert which is typical of many deserts that comprise the arid one-third of Earth's land surface: it contains complex terrain, varied vegetation and substrates, and high water tables associated with salt flats. In order to evaluate the complex diurnal boundary-layer processes that result from this surface heterogeneity, a recent study by Rife, Warner and collaborators used special surface and upper-air data, and the MM5 model. One of the processes that was documented, and that is unique to desert environments, is the salt breeze that forms within the boundary layer around the edge of salt flats as a result of differential heating. Interacting with the salt breeze, in this study, are nocturnal drainage flows on a wide range of scales, are the Great Salt Lake and Utah Lake lake-breeze fronts, and their interaction with the topography.

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MM5 simulation of a lake breeze over northern Utah on the afternoon of 14 July 1998. Displayed are the 10 m AGL wind (see vector scale) and 2-m potential temperature (color). Potential temperature is analyzed with a 1° C interval, and wind vectors are plotted at every second grid point. The inner box denotes the location of the model grid 4, and the heavy lines outline the Great Salt Lake and Utah Lake.

* The Four-Dimensional Weather Depiction System won NCAR's Scientific and Technical Advancement Award in 2001, which recognizes efforts leading to substantial improvements in scientific and/or technical capabilities, including advances in hardware or software engineering, computer science, and applied science. The RAP team was honored for work in designing, developing and implementing a Four-Dimensional weather system for the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command (ATEC).

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B. Taiwan's Advanced Operational Aviation Weather System

RAP, in collaboration with MMM, has been working for the past four years to develop an Advanced Operational Aviation Weather System (AOAWS) for the Civil Aeronautics Administration in Taiwan. This program, like many at RAP, is an excellent example of an end-to-end research and development/technology transfer effort aimed at solving a particular, weather-related set of problems. The program began with an in-depth assessment of user needs; moved on to the basic and applied research necessary to understand the weather/climate/terrain of Taiwan; encompassed a lengthy design, development, and testing period for the software systems and displays; and will end with delivery of the system and training for system users.

AOAWS has provided significant funding to MMM to incorporate MM5 into the system. The model is now providing regularly-updated forecasts on a range of temporal and spatial scales, allows forecasters to see the large-scale changes over East Asia and the Western Pacific over 2-day periods, while also providing detailed information on conditions over the Taiwan Flight Information Region every half-hour. Funding from the Taiwan program has also contributed to basic MM5-related research and model improvement, resulting in improved cumulus schemes and tropical cyclone bogussing, as well as better understanding of the impact of select data types on forecasts. The AOAWS work has also supported research in mesoscale data assimilation and development of the MM5 3DVAR system. These improvements to MM5 constitute a clear benefit to the community and to the NSF-sponsored program at NCAR.

In FY01 a nearly final version of the system was delivered to the sponsor. The AOAWS weather product suite provides enhanced detection and forecasting capabilities of primary weather hazards (e.g., thunderstorms, windshear, clear air turbulence and icing) to pilots,

https://web.archive.org/web/20040206204408/http://www.rap.ucar.edu/asr2001/index.html[12/27/2016 2:18:36 PM] RAP 2001 Annual Scientific Report controllers, traffic managers, and forecasters at the Taipei Aeronautical Meteorological Center. Dedicated interactive displays have been installed at CAA forecast centers, flight service stations, air traffic control centers and airports. Airlines and pilots obtain data and products through an advanced web system. The CAA sponsor and airline and airport users believe that the system is already improving aviation safety and efficiency in Taiwan.

C. Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System (VDRAS)*

During the summer of 2000 aviation delays related to poor forecasts of convective weather cost airlines an estimated $200 million dollars. One key issue limiting skill in forecasting convection in the 0-12 h time period is the relatively poor initial conditions in current numerical prediction models. Over the past four years Juanzhen (Jenny) Sun and Andrew Crook have worked to develop and test a method to use WSR-88D radar reflectivity and Doppler wind data to develop highly accurate wind, temperature, and moisture analyses.

In papers published in 1997 and 1998, Sun and Crook unveiled a numerical model called the Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System (VDRAS). They demonstrated that data from a single Doppler radar could, through assimilation techniques using the adjoint method, be used to retrieve 3-D fields of winds, thermodynamics, and cloud variables that subsequently could be used to initialize cloud-resolving models. Thus the potential of improving convective weather forecasts through the assimilation of radar data into models was demonstrated.

An example of the real-time application of VDRAS during the Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project. The low level wind field retrieved by the system is shown by the vectors while the associated horizontal convergenceis depicted by the line contours.

Significant changes were made to convert VDRAS from a research tool to a real-time analysis system which was successfully run for two years at the National Weather Service Washington D.C.-Baltimore Weather Forecast Office at Sterling, Virginia as one of the major components of the NCAR Thunderstorm Nowcasting System (also known as the "Auto-nowcaster"). This implementation of the system assimilated data from a single WSR- 88D radar as well as a surface mesonet. The real-time version of VDRAS was also run during the Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project, in support of the Sydney 2000 Summer Olympics, where it assimilated data from two Doppler radars. The system was used by Olympic forecasters to prepare site-specific Olympic venue wind forecasts and also by Sydney weather bureau forecasters in preparing nowcasts of fire weather.

The VDRAS implementation is the first real-time system to diagnose low-level wind and temperature over a wide region using four dimensional data assimilation of Doppler radar data. It has proven extremely useful to operational forecasters as a tool to help understand the mesoscale environment in which convective storms develop.

* The three papers by Sun and Crook describing the VDRAS system and its operational implementation won the 2001 NCAR Publication Award.

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D. The National Convective Weather Forecast Product Becomes "Operational"

The National Convective Weather Forecast (NCWF) algorithm was successfully transferred and approved by the FAA-NWS AWTT board as an official operational product this year. This technology transfer process has been on going since 1999 when the NCWF code was first implemented and run at the National Weather Services's Aviation Weather Center (AWC) in Kansas City.

The NCWF product provides current convective hazards and 1 hr extrapolation forecast of thunderstorm hazard locations. The hazard detection field and forecasts update every 5 min. The NCWF target users are airline dispatch, general aviation and FAA traffic management units. The NCWF product is available on the WWW via Aviation Digital Data Service (ADDS). The diagnostic analysis combines WSR-88D national radar and echo top mosaics (provided by NOAA with mosaics created and distributed by UNISYS and cloud to ground

https://web.archive.org/web/20040206204408/http://www.rap.ucar.edu/asr2001/index.html[12/27/2016 2:18:36 PM] RAP 2001 Annual Scientific Report lightning provided by Global Atmospherics Inc). Extrapolation forecasts are determined by applying a stratiform-convective partitioner and elliptical filter to the hazard detection field. These filters eliminate stratiform return and small-scale perishable features. One-hour forecast are based on the Thunderstorm Identification Tracking and Nowcasting (TITAN) algorithm.

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https://web.archive.org/web/20040206204408/http://www.rap.ucar.edu/asr2001/index.html[12/27/2016 2:18:36 PM] RAP 2001 Annual Scientific Report

Major Scientific Achievements

[In-Flight Icing] [Snowfall & Freezing Precipitation] [Convective Weather Forecasting] [Turbulence] [Numerical Weather Prediction] [Water Resources] [Modeling of Land-Surface Processes] [Remote Sensing Precipitation] [Analysis of Precipitation Enhancement Potential] [Ceiling and Visibility] [Oceanic Weather] [Intelligent Weather Systems] [Efforts Related to Forecasat Verification] [Technology Transfer Activities] [UCAR-STARS]

A. In-Flight Icing

1. Background 2. An Inferred Icing Climatology from Sounding and Surface Dataset 3. Analysis of Problematic Icing Diagnoses in the Pacific Northwest 4. Use of MM5 to Simulate a Weakly-Forced Stratiform Cloud with High Liquid Water Content 5. Use of Radar Polarization Information to Detect InFlight Icing Conditions 6. Effects of Ice Crystals on Brightness Temperature Measurements used to Profile the Atmosphere 7. An Initial Assessment of Radiometer Retrievals of Atmospheric Profiles

B. Snowfall and Freezing Precipitation

1. Background 2. Short-term forecasting of snowbands using numerical models and Doppler Radar 3. ASOS drizzle detection algorithm 4. Snow Gauge and Windshield Testing for the Climate Reference Network 5. Hotplate Snowgauge

C. Convective Weather Forecasting

1. Background 2. Field Deployments in FY01 3. Nowcaster evaluation from Sydney 2000 demonstration 4. Satellite Cloud Classification and Growth 5. Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System (VDRAS) 6. Research and algorithm development for use in NCWF

D. Turbulence

1. Background 2. Analysis of a Significant Aircraft Encounter with Convectively Induced Turbulence 3. Turbulence climatological studies 4. Turbulence forecasting 5. Juneau Terrain-Induced Turbulence Project 6. Remote Sensing of Turbulence 7. In-situ measurement and reporting system 8. Turbulence Characterization

E. Numerical Weather Prediction

1. Background 2. Ensemble simulations with coupled atmospheric dynamic and dispersion models. 3. Mechanisms for diurnal boundary-layer circulations in the Great Basin Desert

F. Water Resources

G. Modeling of Land-Surface Processes

1. Background 2. Validating/Improving Land-Surface Models 3. Improving the Parameterization Scheme of the Atmospheric Surface Layer 4. WRF land-surface model development and AFWA ARGMET improvements 5. Warm-Season Evaporation Study 6. Real-Time Weather Forecasts with the Land-Surface/MM5 Coupled System

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H. Remote Sensing of Precipitation

1. Background 2. Derivation of polarimetric rainfall estimators 3. Analytically Derived Relations for Rain Estimation

I. Analysis of Precipitation Enhancement Potential

J. Ceiling and Visibility

1. Background 2. Ceiling and Visibility Expert Algorithm

K. Oceanic Weather

1. Background https://web.archive.org/web/20040206204408/http://www.rap.ucar.edu/asr2001/index.html[12/27/2016 2:19:35 PM] RAP 2001 Annual Scientific Report

2. Survey of Issues and Techniques 3. Initial Steps Toward a Convective Nowcast Product

L. Intelligent Weather Systems

1. Background 2. US Army - Meteorological Measuring Set 3. Road Weather – Maintenance Decision Support System 4. Advanced, Integrated Weather Forecast System

M. Efforts Related to Forecast Verification

1. Background 2. Some properties of skill scores 3. Improved methods for verification of forecast “objects”

N. Technology Transfer Activities

1. Background 2. Taiwan – Advanced Operational Aviation Weather System (AOAWS) 3. ADDS 4. NCWF

O. UCAR-STARS - New Techniques in Signal Analysis

1. Background 2. Development Progress

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https://web.archive.org/web/20040206204408/http://www.rap.ucar.edu/asr2001/index.html[12/27/2016 2:19:35 PM] RAP 2001 Annual Scientific Report

RAP Saff and Visitors [Staff] [Visitors]

RAP Staff 2001

Director's Office Maureen Donovan Joanne Dunnebecke G. Brant Foote (director) Inger Gallo Dara Houliston Rose Lundeen Rhonda McGaffic Richard Wagoner (deputy director) Lara Ziady

Applied Science Group Ben Bernstein Carter Borst (long-term visitor) Jamie Braid (student assistant) Edward Brandes Daniel Breed (joint appointment with MMM) Barbara Brown Roelof Bruintjes (joint appointment with MMM) Randy Bullock Michael Chapman Fei Chen Janice Coen (joint appointment with MMM) Jeffrey Cole Larry Cornman Andrew Crook (joint appointment with MMM) Jonas D’Andrea (student assistant) Christopher Davis (joint appointment with MMM) John Eckhardt (student assistant) Tressa Fowler Rodney Frehlich (long-term visitor) Kent Goodrich (long-term visitor) Angel Gutierrez (student assistant) William Hall (joint appointment with MMM) Benjamin Hendrickson (student assistant) Paul Herzegh Alan Hills John Hopewell (student visitor) Hsiao-ming Hsu David B. Johnson Teddie Keller (long-term visitor) Cathy Kessinger (joint appointment with ATD) Rangarajan Komandur (long-term visitor) Scott Landolt Seth Linden (student assistant) Yubao Liu Carol Makowski Frank McDonough Dan Megenhardt Matthew Meister (student assistant) Greg Meymaris Cynthia Mueller Kevin Petty Marcia Politovich Alexander Praskovsky Eleanor Praskovkaya Roy Rasmussen (group head; joint appointment with MMM) Daran Rife Rita Roberts Conrad Roesch (student assistant) Vidal Salazar (student visitor) Thomas Saxen Robert Sharman Rong-Shyang Sheu Jenny Sun (joint appointment with MMM) Robert Tardiff (graduate research assistant) Claudia Tebaldi Gregory Thompson Matthew Tryhane (student assistant) Francois Vandenberghe Jothiram Vivekanandan (joint appointment with ATD) Charles Wade Thomas Warner (long-term visitor) John Williams James Wilson (joint appointment with ATD) Jamie Wolff

https://web.archive.org/web/20040206204408/http://www.rap.ucar.edu/asr2001/index.html[12/27/2016 2:19:46 PM] RAP 2001 Annual Scientific Report Mei Xu David Yates (long-term visitor) Gregory Young Guifu Zhang

Engineering Bruce Carmichael (manager of engineering)

Operational Systems Group Celia Chen Teresa Eads O. Tres Hofmeister Karen Juenemann Laura Kriho Tenny Lindholm William Mahoney (group head) Carol Nicolaidis Carol Park Jeffrey Stolte Anne-Marie Tarrant

Systems Development Group David Albo Robert Barron Nathaniel Beagley Terri Betancourt Gary Blackburn Laurie Carson Steve Carson Julien Chastang James Cowie Gary Cunning Susan Dettling Michael Dixon Arnaud Dumont Henry Fisher Deirdre Garvey Shel Gerding Frank Hage David Hahn Shelly Knight Martha Limber Doug Lindholm Padhrig McCarthy Corinne Morse Steven Mueller William Myers Niles Oien Melissa Petty Nancy Rehak Rebecca Ruttenberg Troy Sandblom Scott Swerdlin John Teague Steven Webb Andrew Weekley Gerry Wiener (group head) Wesley Wilson (long-term visitor) Alan Yates Jaimi Yee

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RAP Visitors 2001

FAA Warren Fellner, Aviation Weather Research Program, Washington, DC Gloria Kulesa, Manager of Aviation Weather Research, Washington, DC Dave Pace, Aviation Weather Research Program, Washongton, DC Rudy Persaud, MDSS Agency Technical Representative, U.S. DOT, McLean, VA Paul Pisano, Road Weather Management Program Director, U.S. DOT, Washington, DC Edward Pugacz, W.J.H. Technical Center, Atlantic City, NJ Cynthia Schauland, Juneau Program Manager, Washington, DC Cheryl Souders, Chief Engineer for Weather, Washington, DC Robert Wright, Manager of General Aviation Programs, Office of Flight Standards, Washington, DC

NASA Rod Bogue, NASA, Edwards, CA Andrew Reehorst, NASA Glenn Research Center, Cleveland, OH

NOAA-ETL (Environmental Technology Laboratory), Boulder, CO M.J. Post Roger Reinking Timothy Schneider Boba Stankov Dan Wolfe

NOAA-FSL (Forecast Systems Laboratory), Boulder, CO Cecelia Girz Mike Krauss Alexander MacDonald John McGinley Jennifer Mahoney Paul Schultz Lynn Sherretz

https://web.archive.org/web/20040206204408/http://www.rap.ucar.edu/asr2001/index.html[12/27/2016 2:19:46 PM] RAP 2001 Annual Scientific Report NRL (Naval Research Laboratory), Monterrey, CA John McCarthy Ted Tsui

NSSL, Norman, OK John Cortinas Donald Burgess Kim Elmore

NWS (National Weather Service), Silver Spring, MD Mark Andrews, Coordinator of Aviation Weather Services Kevin Johnston Robert Kistler

AWC (Aviation Weather Center), Kansas City, MO James Henderson David Knapp Fred Mosher Ron Olson Jerry Shih Clinton Wallace

Airlines James Johnson, Flight Operations Special Projects Manager, Delta Airlines, Atlanta, GA Carl Knable, United Airlines, Chicago IL 60666

Aviation Cleon Biter, Aviation Weather Consultant, Lyons, CO William Cotton, President, Flight Safety Technology Paul Fiduccia, President, Small Aircraft Manufacturers Association, Washington, DC Al Homans, ARINC, Annapolis MD Scott Simcox, Research Development Director, National Center of Excellence for Aviation Operations Research, Berkeley, CA Walt Strach ,Oakland, ARTCC CWSU

Mitretek Systems Steve Holt, Lead Systems Engineer, Falls Church, VA Gary Nelson, Washington DC Andy Stern, Meteorologist, Falls Church, VA

MIT/LL Russ Alger, Senior, Research Engineer, MTU (Michigan Technological University), Houghton, MI Robert G. Hallowell, Lexington MA Earle Williams

DOT (Department of Transportation) Mike Adams, Wisconsin, RWIS Program Manager, Madison, WI Boyd Brownfield, Anchorage, Alaska Dennis Burkheimer, Winter Operations Administrator, Ames, IO Steve Conger, Winter Operations & Avalanche Specialist, SLC, UT Robert Dorer, DOT Volpe Ctr, Cambridge, MA Terrence Doyle, District ITS Engineer, Albuquerque, NM Thor Dyson, Las Vegas, NV Ron Hall, District Maintenance Engineer, Kansas Dept. of Transportation, Garden City, Kansas Joe Holt, Transportation Manager, Nashville, TN Jerome L. Horner, Maintenance Engineer, Bismarck, ND Norman Humphrey, South Dakota Kenneth Kyle, Assistant Director of Operations, Concord, NH James Lamond, DOT Volpe Ctr., Cambridge, MA Catherine Lobue, Evaluator, Office of the Inspector General, Washington, DC Tony McClellan, Field Maintenance Engineer, Indianapolis, IN Tom Martinelli, Winter Operations Engineer, Madison, WI Curt Pape, R/Wis Coordinator, St. Paul, MN Don Piero, Office of the Inspector General, Washington, DC Michael Rossetti, DOT Volpe Ctr., Cambridge, MA Leland Smithson, AASHTO SICOP Coordinator, Ames, IO Bob Stowe, Washington Jeff Swan, Holbrook District Engineer, Holbrook, AZ Douglas Terhune, Anchorage, Alaska

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CRREL (U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory), Hanover, NH Rosa Affleck, Research Engineer George Blaisdell, Research Engineer & Program Manager Robert Haehnel, Research Mechanical Engineer George Koenig, Research Engineer Kevin McLain, Research Engineer Marian Rawlings, Research Engineer Charles Ryerson, Research Engineer

International Visitors

Korea Dr. Sung-Nam Oh, Seior Researcher, Meteorological Research Institute, Korean Meteorological Administration, Seoul, Korea. Visit in October. Rainfall Enhancement Studies George Isaac, MSC (Meteorological Service of Canada)

South Africa Miss Kristy Ross, P.hD student, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa Prof. Stuart Piketh, Director, Climatology Research Group, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa. October 2001.

Taiwan Yung Chung Chang, Meteorologist, CKS Weather Station, Taipei, Taiwan

https://web.archive.org/web/20040206204408/http://www.rap.ucar.edu/asr2001/index.html[12/27/2016 2:19:46 PM] RAP 2001 Annual Scientific Report Chien (Uno), Chief of the CKS airport weather station, Taipei, Taiwan Chien-Wen (Kevin) Chung, Meteorologist, Kaohsiung Airport, Taipei, Taiwan Chiu-Ho (Tim) Hsieh, Meteorologist, CKS Airport, Taipei, Taiwan Dr. C. W. Lee, Chief of the TAMC, Taipei, Taiwan Kuen-Cheng Lee, Meteorologist, Sungshan Airport Weather Station, Taipei, Taiwan Li-Feng (Phoenix) Lee; Institute for Information Industry – Project Manager, AOAWS Taipei, Taiwan Tai-Shen Lee, Meteorologist, TACC (Taipei Area Control Center), Taipei, Taiwan Hsi-Hua Lin, Meteorologist, Sungshan airport, Taipei, Taiwan Chia Chen Tsai, Meteorologist TAMC (Taipei Area Meteorological Center), Taipei, Taiwan Holin Tsai, Software Engineer, Institute for Information Industry (III), Taipei, Taiwan Mao-Hsiang Tung, Chief of Sungshan Airport Weather Station, Taipei, Taiwan Tai-Yuan Wang, Meteorologist, TAMC (Taipei Area Meteorological Center), Taipei, Taiwan

UAE Lt Col Abdulla Al Mangoosh, Director Department of Water resources Studies, Office of H.H. The President, Abu Dhabi, UAE. Maj. Abdulla Al Mandoos, Chief Meteorologist Department of Water resources Studies, Office of H.H. The President, Abu Dhabi, UAE. Dr. A.S.A. Khalil, WMO resident representative, Abu Dhabi, UAE

Others Philip Armstrong, Vaisala, Boulder, CO Robert Bernard, CSX Jacksonville, FL John Bimrose, Microspace Communications, Raleigh, NC Jim Block, DTN, Weather Services, Burnsville, MN Bill Browder, AAR, Washington, DC Curtis Cain, Picton Technologies, Post Falls, ID Kevin Crowe, Union Pacific, Omaha, NE Dr. Lidia Cucurull, Institut d'Estudis Espacials de Catalunya (Catalan Space Institute), Barcelona, Spain, September 16-22, 2001 Steven Ditmeyer, FRA, Washington, DC T.J. Drake, Norfolk Southern, Atlanta, GA Gary Drouin, Transport Canada, Ottawa, Ontario Dr. Claude Duchon, University of Oklahoma Mike Eilts, President, Weather Decision Technologies, Norman, OK Craig Goff, Aviation Weather Directorate, Washington, DC John Grundmann, BNSF, Fort Worth, TX Geoff Hill, ATEK, Inc., Honolulu, HI Michael C. Hill, CSX, Jacksonville, FL Daniel Jobin, KijeSipi Ltd., Gatineau, Quebec Rick Johnson, United Transp Union, Lakewood, CO Susan Keegan, CSX, Jacksonville, FL Bob Lane, ENSCO, Cocoa Beach, FL Christoph Leifeld; Graduate student, University of Hannover, Germany. Volker Lehmann; Meteorologist, Deutscher Wetterdienst (German Met Office), Lindenberg, Germany Clive Mackay, Canadian Pacific, Calgary, Alberta Scott McCormick, Environment Canada, Calgary, Alberta Kirby O'Connor, FRA, Lakewood, CO Daniel Picton, Picton Technologies, Liberty Lake, WA Donald Plotkin, FRA, Washington, DC Jim Robe, Coherent Technologies Inc., Boulder, CO Steven Root, Weatherbank, Inc., Edmond, OK Mike Smith, WeatherData, Inc., Wichita, KS Bill Spry, FRA, Aurora, CO Paul Swanson, BMWE, Denver, CO Rich Taylor, ITS America, Washington, DC Bill Verdeyen, BLE, Terre Haute, IN

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https://web.archive.org/web/20040206204408/http://www.rap.ucar.edu/asr2001/index.html[12/27/2016 2:19:46 PM] RAP 2001 Annual Scientific Report

Educational Activities

Formal Teaching Arrangements of RAP Staff with Colleges or Universities

Teaching

Steve Carson - Science, 1 hr/wk for 2nd grade class, Rocky Mt. School for the Gifted & Creative Susan Dettling - College Calculus University of Colorado, Boulder (Spring/Fall 2001) Shelly Gerding - Adjunct, FE Refresher Course, University of Colorado at Denver Kent Goodrich - Prof. Of Mathematics University of Colorado, Boulder Tenny Lindholm, Marcia Politovich, Ben Bernstein - Provided materials and appeared on NASA Glenn Research Center NASA In-Flight Icing Pilot training module

Advising on Graduate Research

Ben Bernstein - Frank McDonough, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, Colorado Roelof Bruintjes - Christy Ross, Ph.D Univ. of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa Roelof Bruintjes - Abdulla Al Mangoosh, Ph.D Univ. of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa Roelof Bruintjes - Abdulla Al Mandoos, Ph.D Univ. of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa Fei Chen - Sridhar V Rao, Ph.D Oklahoma State University Kent Goodrich - Doug Norris, Ph.D University of Colorado, Boulder Marcia Politovich and Ben Bernstein - Christoph Leifeld, Ph.D U. Hannover (Germany)

Member of Thesis Committee

Roelof Bruintjes - Christy Ross, Ph.D Univ. of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa Roelof Bruintjes - Abdulla Al Mangoosh, Ph.D Univ. of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa Roelof Bruintjes - Abdulla Al Mandoos, Ph.D Univ. of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa Fei Chen - Sridhar Venkataramana Rao, PhD Oklahoma State University, Oklahoma Kent Goodrich - Keri Kornelson, Ph.D University of Colorado, Boulder Kent Goodrich - William Kirwin, Ph.D University of Colorado, Boulder Kent Goodrich - Joel Glenn, Ph.D University of Colorado, Boulder Kent Goodrich - Martin Ranken, Ph.D University of Colorado, Boulder Kent Goodrich - Miles Light, Ph.D University of Colorado, Boulder Francois Vandenberghe - Lidia Cucurull, Ph.D. Institut d'Estudis Espacials de Catalunya (Barcelona, Spain) Tom Warner- Eric Thaler, PhD University of Colorado, Boulder Tom Warner - Robert Tardiff, PhD University of Colorado, Boulder Tom Warner- Jamie Wolff, MS University of Colorado, Boulder David Yates - Molly Hellmuth, Ph.D University of Colorado, Boulder David Yates - David Wiberg, Ph.D University of Colorado, Boulder David Yates - James Berkley, MS University of Colorado, Boulder

Workshops and Colloquia

Verification of Probabilistic Forecasts at Points 5/14/01 WMO/World Weather Research Program (lecture at the WMO/WWRP Workshop on QPF Verification NBAA Seasonal Aviation Weather Hazards 1/01 Scheduler and Dispatchers AOAWS System Training 9/5-10/27, 2000 CAA Taiwan AOAWS System Training 6/1-12/01 CAA Taiwan CASES - Organized a special session on for the AGU Fall Mtg. 12/15-19/00 San Francisco, CA WRF/LSM Workshop 10/23-25/00 Washington, DC FHWA Weather Information for Surface Transportation 12/00 FHWA Maintenance Decision Support Systems 6/01 Eastern Road Snow Symposium 9/01 FHWA ITS World Congress 10/01 FHWA MM5 Users' Workshop 6/01 NCAR/MMM WRF Users' Workshop 8/01 NCAR/MMM

AMS Aviation Weather Conf. (Icing/Microphysics related) 10/00 NASA/DOD/FAA Remote Sensing for Icing Workshop NASA Safari 2000 Data Workshop 9/01 NASA - Safari 2000 Workshop 5/01 FRA; AAR; NCAR - Enhanced Wx Info for Improved Railroad Safety & Productivity 10/01 STARS - a new remote sensing analysis technique developed at NCAR

Tutoring/Mentoring/Work with COMET, etc.

Dan Breed: Mentored 2 Arab students on UAE project (see field program section for project details) Joanne Dunnebecke: SOARS writing mentor for Pauline Datulayta Niles Oien: SOARS writing mentor for Maribel Martinez. Her work was presented at the 2001 SACNAS Conference. Daran Rife: Worked with Barry Pederson , a high-school student on "real world" meteorology applications.

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https://web.archive.org/web/20040206204408/http://www.rap.ucar.edu/asr2001/index.html[12/27/2016 2:20:00 PM] RAP 2001 Annual Scientific Report

Community Service Activities

Committee Work or Advisory Panels (for AMS, AGU, etc.)

Ben Bernstein - SAE AC-9C InFlight Icing Subcommittee Roelof Bruintjes: AMS Panel on Weather Modification: Member Roelof Burintjes: Exec. Board, WMA: President Univ. of Colorado (Boulder), Actuarial Science Program: Co-chair Bruce Carmichael: NASA Aviation Safety Program: Advisory Panel Fei Chen: WRF Land-Surface Model Working Group: member Paul Herzegh: Technical Steering Committee for STARS, UCAR: Member Cathy Kessinger: Radar Meteorology Conference, AMS: Session Co-chair Marcia Politovich: COMET Advisory Panel Marcia Politovich: AIAA Atmospheric Environment Technical Committee Marcia Politovich: SAE AC-9C InFlight Icing Subcommittee Marcia Politovich: FAA InFlight Icing Sterring Committee (Advisor) Greg Thompson: Aviation Weather Committee of NWA Jim Wilson: AMS Committee on Radar Meteorology, AMS: Member Jim Wilson: NEXRAD Technical Advisory Committee, NOAA: Member Jim Wilson: Warm Season QPF Workshop Organization Team, USWRP: Member

Editorial Work for Journals

Barb Brown: Weather and Forecasting, Associate Editor Barb Brown: Numerous reviews for many AMS journals Roelof Bruintjes: Journal of Applied Meteorology: Asst. Editor Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications (JOTA): Referred paper Cathy Kessinger: IEE Transactions on Geosciences and Remote Sensing: Reviewer Cathy Kessinger: Journal of Atmospheric & Oceanic Technology, AMS: Reviewer Cathy Kessinger: Weather and Forecasting, AMS: Reviewer Marcia Politovich: Weather and Forecasting: Associate Editor Marcia Politovich: Journal of Atmospheric & Oceanic Technology: Editor Claudia Tebaldi: Monthly Weather Review: Reviewer Chuck Wade: Bulletin of American Meteorological Society: Reviewer Chuck Wade: Weather & Forecasting: Reviewer Chuck Wade: Journal of Atmospheric & Oceanic Technology: Reviewer Tom Warner: Journal of Applied Meteorology: Editor Tom Warner: Journal of Applied Science: Editor Tom Warner: Monthly Weather Review, Editor Tom Warner: JAE: Editor

Field Programs Conducted

Dan Breed: Aerosol recirculation & rainfall experiment, Mar 12-17, 01, South Africa Dan Breed: UAE Rainfall Enhancement Feasibility Study, Dec 2000 - Apr 2001 and June - Sept 2001, UAE Roelof Bruintjes: UAE Rainfall Enhancement Feasibility Study, Jan - Mar 2001 and Jun - Sept 2001, UAE Tara Jensen: Rainfall Enhancement and Atmospheric Chemistry Project, 6/15 - 9/15 2001, Abu Dhabi, UAE Cathy Kessinger: Improve I, 1/4 - 2/13 2001, West Haven, Washington: Participant Niles Oien: Supported autonowcaster projects throughout FY01, Sydney, Australia; White Sands, New Mexico Niles Oien: Supported Taiwan AOAWS Project throughout FY01, Taiwan Vidal Salazar: Rainfall Enhancement and Atmospheric Chemistry Project, Jan - Mar, 2001; June - Sept 2001, UAE Chuck Wade: Climate Reference Network - snow gauge & wind shield evaluations, Jan - May, 2001, Marshall, CO Jim Wilson: Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project, Sept - Dec 2000, Sydney, Austrailia Jim Wilson: IMPROVE, Jan 14-21, 2001, Westport, WA Guifu Zhang: IMPROVE, Jan. 14-21, 2001, Westport, WA

Honors/Awards

Jenny Sun and Andrew Crook: 2001 NCAR Publication Award for their series of papers on radar data assimilation into convective weather forecasts

Scott Swerdlin, Tom Warner, Cindy Mueller, Laurie Carson, Yubao Liu, Doug Lindholm, Rebecca Ruttenberg, Tom Saxen, Hank Fisher, Daran Rife, Troy Sandblom, Julien Chastang, David Hahn, Hsiao-Ming Hsu, Rong- Shyang Sheu, Steve Webb, David Leberknight, Fei Chen, Niles Oien, Jaimi Yee, Terri Betancourt, and Carter Borst (RAP), Chris Davis (MMM/RAP), and Simon Low-Nam, Al Bourgeois, and Kevin Manning (MMM): 2001 NCAR Scientific and Technical Advancement Award for their work in designing, developing, and implementing a Four-Dimensional Weather (4DWX) system for the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command

Tenny Lindholm: Best Paper of Session: 19th Digital Avionics Systems Conference 10/7-13/00

Marcia Politovich, Ben Bernstein, Scott Landolt, Frank McDonough, Matt Meister: NASA "Turning Goals into Reality" Award for Icing Research

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https://web.archive.org/web/20040206204408/http://www.rap.ucar.edu/asr2001/index.html[12/27/2016 2:20:08 PM] RAP 2001 Annual Scientific Report

RAP Publications 2001

[Refereed] [Unrefereed]

Bold face denotes University collaborators * denotes non-NCAR or other collaborators

Refereed

Bernstein, B.C., 2000: Regional and local influences on freezing drizzle, freezing rain, and ice pellet events. Weather and Forecasting, 15, 485-508.

Carbone, R.E., J.W.Wilson, *T. D. Keenan, and J.M. Hacker, 2000: Tropical island convection in the absence of significant topography, Part I: Lifecycle of diurnally forced covection. Monthly Weather Review,128, 3459-3480.

Chen, F., and J. Dudhia, 2001: Coupling an advanced land-surface/hydrology model with the Penn State/NCAR MM5 modeling system. Part I: Model implementation and sensitivity. Monthly Weather Review, 129, 569-585.

Chen, F., and J. Dudhia, 2001: Coupling an advanced land-surface/hydrology model with the Penn State/NCAR MM5 modeling system. Part II: Preliminary model validation. Monthly Weather Review, 129, 587-604.

Chen, F., R. Pielke, Sr., and *K. Mitchell, 2001: Development and application of land-surface models for mesoscale atmospheric models: Problems and Promises. Observation and Modeling of the Land Surface Hydrological Processes. V. Lakshmi, J. Alberston, and J. Schaake (Editors), American Geophysical Union, 107-135.

Chen, F., T. Warner, and K. Manning, 2001: Sensitivity of orographic moist convection to landscape variability: A Study of the Buffalo Creek, Colorado, flash-flood case of 1996. Journal of Atmopheric Science, 58, 3204-3223.

Cohn, S, K. Goodrich, C. Morse, E. Karplus, S. Mueller, L. Cornman, A. Weekley. Radial Velocity and Wind Measurement, with NIMA and NWCA: Comparisons with Human Estimation and Aircraft Measurements, Journal of Applied Meteorology, 40, No.4, 704-719, April 2001.

Crook, N.A. 2001: Understanding Hector: The dynamics of island thunderstorms. Monthly Weather Review, 1550-1563.

Crook, N.A. and J. Sun, 2001: Assimilating radar, surface and profiler data for the Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology. [in press]

Goodrich, K., C. Morse, S. Cohn, L. Cornman. A Horizontal Wind and Wind Confidence Algorithim for Doppler Wind Profilers. Accepted for publication in JTECH.

*Keenan,T., S. Rutledge, R. Carbone, J. Wilson, T. Takahashi, *P. May, N. Tapper, *M. Platt, J. Hacker, S. Sekelsky, M. Moncrieff, *K. Saito, *G. Holland, *A. Crook, and *K. Gage, 2000: The Maritime Continent thunderstorm experiment (MCTEX): overview and some results. Bulletin of American Meteorological Soc., 81, 2433-2455.

LeMone, M., R. Grossman, R.T. McMillen, K.N. Liou, S. Ou, S. McKeen, *W. Angevine, K. Ikeda, and F. Chen, 2001: CASES-97: Late morning warming and moistening of the convective mixed layer over the Walnut River watershed. Boundary Layer Meteorology. [in press]

Lin, C.-L., T. Chai, and J. Sun, 2001: Retrieval of flow structure in a convective boundary layer using an adjoint model: identical twin experiments. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 1767-1783.

Liu, S., H. Liu, M. Xu, M. Y. Leclerc, *T. Zhu, *C. Jin, *Z. Hong, *J. Li and *H. Liu, 2001: Turbulence spectral structures and dissipation rates above and within the forest canopy. Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 98(1): 83-102.

Morse, C., K. Goodrich, L. Cornman. The NIMA Method for Improved Moment Estimation from Doppler Spectra. Accepted for publication in JTECH.

Politovich, M.K. and T.A.O. Bernstein, 2001: Icing conditions in northeastern Colorado. Accepted for publication, J. Appl. Meteor. [in press]

Rasmussen, R.M., M. Dixon, F. Hage, J. Cole, C. Wade, J. Tuttle, *S. McGettigan, *T. Carty, *L. Stevenson, *W. Fellner, S. Knight, E. Karplus, and N. Rehak, 2001. Weather Support to Deicing Decision Making (WSDDM): A Winter Weather Nowcasting System. Bulletin of the AMS, Vol. 82, No. 4, April 2001.

Rife, D.L., T. Warner, F. Chen, and *Elford G. Astling, 2001: Mechanisms for diurnal boundary-layer circulations in the Great Basin Desert. Accepted for publication in Monthly Weather Review.

Russell, R.W., and J.W. Wilson. 2001. Spatial dispersion of aerial plankton over east-central Florida: aeolian transport and coastal concentrations. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 22, 2071-2082.

Slater, A.G., and Co-authors, 2001: The representation of snow inland-surface schemes: results https://web.archive.org/web/20040206204408/http://www.rap.ucar.edu/asr2001/index.html[12/27/2016 2:20:22 PM] RAP 2001 Annual Scientific Report from PILPS 2(d). J. Hydrometeorology, 2, 7-25.

*Stensrud, D. J., J. -W. Bao, and T. T. Warner, 2000: Using initial condition and model physics perturbations in short-range ensemble simulations of mesoscale convective systems. Monthly Weather Review, 128, 2077-2107.

Sun, J. and Crook, N.A., 2001: Realtime Low-Level Wind and Temperature Analysis Using WSR-88D Data. Weather and Forecasting, 16, 117-132.

Tebaldi C., M. West, and A. Karr. Bayesian analyses of freeway traffic flow. Accepted for publication in Journal of Forecasting (December 2001 issue).

Vivekanandan, J., G. Zhang, and M.K. Politovich, 2001: An Assessment of Droplet Size and Liquid Water Content Derived from Dual-Wavelength Radar Measurements to the Application of Aircraft Icing Detection. Journal of Atmos.Ocean. Technology, 18, 1787 - 1798.

Vivekanandan, J., G. Zhang, and M.K. Politovich, 2001: Estimate of droplet size and liquid water content using dual-frequency radar measurements for aircraft icing detection. Accepted for publication, Journal of Applied Meteorology.

Warner, T., D. N. Yates, E. E. Brandes, J. Sun, C. K. Mueller, and *G. H. Leavesley, 2001: Prediction of a flash flood in complex terrain: A comparison of flood discharge simulations using rainfall input from radar, a dynamic model, and a automated algorithmic system, J. Hydrologic Engineering, 6, 265-274.

Wilson, J.W. and R.M. Wakimoto, 2001: The discovery of the downburst - T.T. Fujita contribution, Bulletin American Meteorology Soc., 82, 49-62.

Wilson, J.W., R.E. Carbone, J.D. Tuttle, and *T. D. Keenan, 2001: Tropical Island convection in the absence of significant topography, Part II: Nowcasting storm evolution. Monthly Weather Review, 129, 1637-1655.

Xu, M., *D. J. Stensrud, J. -W. Bao, and T. T. Warner, 2001: Application of the adjoint technique to short range ensemble forecasting of mesoscale convective systems. Monthly Weather Review, 129, 1395-1418.

Xu, M., J. -W. Bao, T. T. Warner, and *D. J. Stensrud, 2001: Effect of time-step size in MM5 simulations of a mesoscale convective system. Monthly Weather Review, 129, 502-516.

Yates, D.N., F. Chen, M. LeMone, R. Qualls, S. P.Oncley, R.L. Grossman, and E. A. Brandes. 2001: A CASES dataset for assessing and parameterizing land-surface heterogeneity on area- averaged surface heat fluxes. Journal of Applied Meterology, 40, 921-937.

Yates, D. N., T. T. Warner, E. A. Brandes, J. Sun, C. K. Mueller, and *G. H. Leavesley, 2001: Prediction of a flash flood in complex terrain: A comparison of flood discharge simulations using rainfall input from radar, a dynamic model, and an automated-algorithmic system. J. Hydrologic Engineering, 6, 265-274.

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Unrefereed

Bernstein, B.C., 2001: Evaluation of NCAR Icing/SLD forecatss, tools and techniques used during the 1998 NASA SLD flight season. NASA CR-2001-210954.

Brandes, E., G. Zhang, J. Vivekanandan, and S. M. Ellis, 2001: An evaluation of polarimetric radar rainfall estimators in a semi-tropical environment. Proc.of AMS Radar Conference, Germany, 19-24 July, pp. 638-640.

Crook, N.A.and J. Sun, 2001: Assimilation and forecasting experiments on supercell storms: Part II: Experiments with WSR-88D data. 14th Conference on Weather and Forecasting. Fort Lauderdale, FL, 147-150.

Crook, N.A. and J. Sun, 2001: Assimilating radar, surface and profiler data for the Sydney 2000 forecast demonstration project. 30th Conference on Radar Meteorology, Munich, Germany, 480- 482.

Fowler, T.L., B. G. Brown, and R.T. Bruintjes: 2001. Statistical Evaluation of a cloud seeding experiment in Coahuila, Mexico. Preprints, 15th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification, Albuquerque, New Mexico, 14-19 January.

Mahoney, W.P., 2001: An Advanced Weather Information Decision Support System for Winter Road Maintenance. Preprints, 8th World Congress on Intelligent Transport Systems, 30 September - 4 October 2001, Sydney, Australia.

Mahoney, W.P., 2001: An Advanced Winter Road Maintenance Decision Support System. Preprints, Intelligent Transportation Society of America (ITS) 2001, 4 - 7 June 2001, Miami Beach, Florida.

Politovich, M.K., B.C. Bernstein and F. McDonough, 2001: Issues in Forecasting Icing Severity. Submitted, AMS 10th Conf. on Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology.

Politovich, M.K., B.C. Bernstein, J. Hopewell, *C. Knobel, *L. Gaverke, *D. Hazan and *B. Martner, An Unusual Icing Case: 20 March 2001, Denver, CO. Submitted, AMS 10th Conf. on Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology.

*Ryerson, C.C., M.K. Politovich, and *G.G. Koenig, 2001: Mt. Washington Icing Sensors Project (MWISP) Results. Submitted, AMS 10th Conf. on Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology.

Snyder, C., F. Zhang, J. Sun and N.A. Crook, 2001: Tests of an ensemble Kalman filter at convective scales. 14th Conference on Weather and Forecasting. Fort Lauderdale, FL, 444-446.

Sun, J. and N.A. Crook, 2001: Assimilation and forecasting experiments on supercell storms: Part I: Experiments with simulated data. 14th Conference on Weather and Forecasting. Fort Lauderdale, FL, 142-146.

Sun, J., N.A. Crook and L.J. Miller, 2001: Assimilation and forecasting of a supercell storm:

https://web.archive.org/web/20040206204408/http://www.rap.ucar.edu/asr2001/index.html[12/27/2016 2:20:22 PM] RAP 2001 Annual Scientific Report Simulated and observed data experiments. 30th Conference on Radar Meteorology, Munich, Germany, 185-187.

Tucker, D. and N.A. Crook, 2001: Rocky Mountain summer convective activity under various flow regimes. 9th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Fort Lauderdale, FL, 315-318.

Vivekanandan, J., E., G. Zhang, and M. Politovich, 2001: Ananlysis of a dual-wavelength radar technique for estimating liquid water content and droplet size, Proc.of AMS Radar Conference, Germany, 19-24 July, pp157-159.

Vivekanandan, J., and G. Zhang, 2001: Preciptation particle classification and raindrop size distribution retrieval fro s-band polarimetric radar measurements. AP-RASC'01, Tokyo, Japan, 1- 4 August, pp169.

Vivekanandan, J. and G. Zhang, 2001: Numerical study of multi-frequency dual-polarization microwave radiometry technique for supercooled liquid water detection. Proc. of IGARSS'01, Sydney, Ausralia, 9-13 July.

Xu, M., N.A. Crook, J. Sun and R. Rasmussen, 2001: Assimilation of Radar data for 1-4 hour snowband forecasting using a mesoscale model. 14th Conference on Weather and Forecasting. Fort Lauderdale, FL, 283-286.

Xu, M., N.A. Crook, J. Sun and R. Rasmussen, 2001: Short term forecasting of snowbands using radar data and 4DVar assimilation. 30th Conference on Radar Meteorology, Munich, Germany, 185-187.

Yee, J. and M. Dixon, 2001: A template-based pattern-recognition algorithm for the removal of bright band from cartesian radar data. Preprints, 30th International Conference on Radar Meterology, AMS, Munich, pp 584-586.

Zhang, G., J. Vivekanandan, and E. Brandes, 2001: Sampling effects on radar measurements and its consequence on parameter retrieval. Proc. of IGARSS'01, Sydney, Ausralia, 9-13 July. Sensing (Accepted).

Zhang, G., J. Vivekanandan, E. Brandes, 2001: A method for estimating rain fall rate and drop size distribution from polarimetric radar measurements, IEEE Trans. On Geoscience and Remote Sensing, Vol. 39, NO. 4, 830 - 841.

Zhang, G., J. Vivekanandan, E. Brandes, 2001:Effects of random inhomogeneity on radar measurements and rain rate estimation, Accepted for publication in IEEE Trans. on Geoscience and Remote.

Zhang, G., J. Vivekanandan, and *R. J. Doviak, 2001: Innovative cross-correlation method for determining three-dimensional wind. Proc.of AMS Radar Conference, Germany, 19-24 July, pp 471-473.

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https://web.archive.org/web/20040206204408/http://www.rap.ucar.edu/asr2001/index.html[12/27/2016 2:20:22 PM] SCD FY2001 ASR - Message from SCD Director Al Kellie

Message from SCD Director Al Kellie

Another year of great challenge and change for the Scientific Computing Division has run its course. During FY2001, SCD has managed significant and lasting achievements, which I am pleased to recognize in this Annual Scientific Report. Given the nature of our efforts in providing high performance computing support for NCAR and the atmospheric sciences community around the world, technological change is an inevitable feature of our planning and operational landscape. We may not always relish the upheavals that accompany such changes, but we always seek out and embrace the associated opportunities to support and advance the research agenda of NCAR's constituent research community. Looking forward to the future: A new generation of computing at NCAR

NCAR's new-generation computer observed by America's new generation of scientists

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Student visitors to NCAR viewing blackforest, the Advanced Research Computing System housed in SCD's spotless computer room. -- Photo by Lynda Lester, SCD

This was a watershed year for SCD in terms of providing services to researchers, computational cycles, research and development progress, state-of-the-art enabling technologies, and irreplaceable research data.

During FY2001, SCD has:

Managed a successful procurement for an Advanced Research Computing System (ARCS) that has doubled NCAR's overall computing capabilities and will, over the course of the next several years, provide a sustained Teraflop of computing power for the atmospheric and related sciences.

Provided leadership in computational science research and development in important areas such as developing a terascale spectral element dynamical core for General Atmospheric Circulation models that has achieved a new high integration rate of 465 GFLOPS, and working toward a high-performance software framework for interoperable applications in Earth System Modeling.

Advanced the state of the art for NCAR's information services for data archiving.

Fostered a new architecture for terascale data access, analysis, and visualization technologies, and deployed a major new Scientific Visualization Laboratory which incorporates the NCAR AccessGrid node.

Assisted and supported NCAR's research community in converting their numerical simulations to run efficiently on the new generation of supercomputing architectures.

Led development of the Web100 project (along with PSC and NCSA) to fix some well-known problems in operating systems that currently inhibit effective utilization of national high-performance networks such as vBNS and Abilene.

Upgraded the networking, power, and environmental infrastructure that enables the computing center to support ever-expanding research in the atmospheric and related sciences.

In addition, SCD successfully participated in an intensive NSF review of our past five years' accomplishments. NSF's review panel found that SCD is not only highly supportive of NCAR, but that SCD is crucial to the overall mission of NCAR and the advancement of atmospheric science research. SCD staff are justifiably proud of these findings and the accomplishments underlying them. I urge you to read the details of our progress in this year's Annual Scientific Report.

And as you read through our report of FY2001 activities and accomplishments, I hope you will take away some sense of our excitement at the possibilities that lie before us. We are indeed embarking upon a new, bold, and challenging future, fueled by enhanced capabilities in computing, research, data storage, networking, analysis, and visualization.

We look forward to this future as we reflect on our past accomplishments. As always, we seek to provide the finest in computing resources, teamed with a dedicated and talented staff, to help advance the understanding of our complex climate system.

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SCD FY2001 ASR table of contents

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Significant accomplishment highlights

SCD's two most significant accomplishments in FY2001 were 1) the procurement of ARCS, the Advanced Research Computing System which doubled the capacity of our largest computer, and 2) the balanced, substantive progress made by all of SCD's sections toward fulfilling the SCD mission. The NCAR Advanced Research Computing System procurement

The successful ARCS procurement is SCD's top achievement for FY2001. The ARCS system will provide a phased introduction of new computational, storage, and communications technologies through the life of the contract. This will allow NCAR's Scientific Computing Division to maintain a stable, state-of-the-art production facility for the next three to five years.

ARCS - The NCAR Advanced Research Computing System

The initial delivery augments the existing blackforest system by more than doubling its computational capacity, from 0.9 to 2.0 peak TFLOPS, and provides a five-fold increase in disk storage capacity. A second delivery, in September 2002, will introduce IBM's next-generation processor (POWER4), node (Regatta), and switch (Colony) technologies, adding almost 5 peak TFLOPS, upgraded switch communications, and https://web.archive.org/web/20040222091059/http://www.scd.ucar.edu/docs/asr2001/highlights.html[12/27/2016 2:21:28 PM] SCD FY2001 ASR - Significant accomplishment highlights

21 TB of new disk storage. In the fall of 2003, the Colony switch will be replaced with IBM's next-generation Federation switch technology, which provides much lower latency and higher bandwidth than does the Colony switch.

If NCAR chooses to exercise the two-year contract extension option, in the fall of 2004 the system will be upgraded with an additional 4 peak TFLOPS and 32 TB of new disk storage.

IBM and SCD have agreed to work together to improve the user environment and user support services that will be provided to NCAR and CSL. This agreement covers many aspects of the ARCS, including on-site IBM applications specialists, training in advanced programming, performance analysis and tuning techniques, and a more efficient process for reporting, escalating, and resolving compiler and tools problems.

Additionally, the agreement with IBM will provide the opportunity for NCAR to participate in IBM's "Blue Light" HPC project. Blue Light is an exploratory effort of IBM's Exploratory Server Systems department at IBM Research to develop future PetaFLOPs supercomputer systems. NCAR's collaboration with IBM in Blue Light holds the promise of significant and revolutionary advancements in climate, weather, and Earth systems models, and will provide IBM with valuable input on hardware and software design. Balanced, substantive progress made by all of SCD's sections toward fulfilling the SCD mission

SCD's internal organization is shaped by its mission. SCD's structure makes each of its management units primarily responsible for one line item in SCD's mission. While some line items in the mission are shared, the purpose of each management unit is to focus on and execute one specific part of the mission. This organization places accountability and credit for mission-critical projects on specific people in the division.

Our second highlight for FY2001 is the balanced progress we achieved in each fundamental area of our mission, which is to provide:

a. High-performance computing and expertise needed for the development and execution of large, long-running numerical simulations b. A data archiving and management system that is balanced in performance and capacity relative to computational resources c. High-speed network and data communication capabilities that are balanced with respect to computational facilities, storage facilities, and the requirements of a national and international community d. Research datasets and expertise needed by atmospheric and related sciences e. A computing environment and support services that emphasize user productivity and cost-effectiveness f. Education and training in computing and related technologies with an emphasis on under-represented groups g. Transfer of appropriate NCAR technology to the private sector in collaboration with the UCAR Foundation

These are the stories of our most significant achievements in each of these areas, organized by the way SCD's management units relate to the line items in our mission:

High performance computing -- Supercomputing Systems Group (a) Computational science research and development -- Computational Science Section (a) https://web.archive.org/web/20040222091059/http://www.scd.ucar.edu/docs/asr2001/highlights.html[12/27/2016 2:21:28 PM] SCD FY2001 ASR - Significant accomplishment highlights

Data archiving and management system -- Mass Storage System Group (b) Network engineering and telecommunications -- Network Engineering and Telecommunications Section (c) Research data stewardship -- Data Support Section (d) Visualization and enabling technologies -- Visualization and Enabling Technologies Section (e) Assistance and support for NCAR's research community -- User Support Section (e) Enabling infrastructure -- Operations and Infrastructure Support (e) All of SCD's management units contribute to items (f) and (g) of the mission.

High performance computing

Primary responsibility for high performance computing is managed by the Supercomputing Systems Group (SSG) to support part (a) of our mission. SSG FY2001 highlights include:

NCAR batch scheduler enhancements SSG developed and maintains the batch scheduling software that sits on top of the resource management software provided by the vendors. The resource management software controls allocation of resources within each of the supercomputers. The batch scheduling software implements the NCAR business logic for how best to allocate the resources. Many enhancements were made to the scheduler this year, including enhanced error checking with feedback and externalization of the control logic.

When a scientist submits a job to the supercomputers, there are a number of directives that can be specified in the job script. Often times these directives are confusing and conflicting, which results in the job not properly running or not running at all. Changes have been made to the scheduler to provide enhanced filtering for incomplete, incorrect, or conflicting directives. When a job is submitted that has one of these problems, it is rejected and an email is sent to the scientist explaining the problem and recommending possible solutions.

The externalization of the control logic involved parameterizing things like maximum wallclock time for the queues, privilege granting for special queues, and special project authorizations. These items have been removed from user code and centralized into a configuration file. The business office now owns and controls this file, removing this system administration burden from users.

New end-user tools This year, SSG developed a series of tools that enable scientists, consultants, and systems staff to easily obtain job status information from the supercomputers. These tools provide a global view of the job status from each of the supercomputers. They include things like the status of running jobs, queued jobs, completed jobs, load average of the system, outstanding requests for data from the Mass Storage System, and information about the inner logic of the scheduling algorithm. The output from these tools is in the form of a summary report, and the job status information is also being posted (every five minutes) to the SCD website. A follow-on activity that is currently underway is the conversion of this information into a graphical, point-and- click format that will enable a more timely delivery of this information from within a web browser.

Computational science research and development

Primary responsibility for computational science and computational research and

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development is managed by the Computational Science Section (CSS) to support part (a) of our mission. CSS FY2001 highlights include:

Terascale spectral element dynamical core for atmospheric General Circulation Models Climate modeling is a grand challenge problem where scientific progress is measured not in terms of the largest problem that can be solved but by the highest achievable integration rate. Loft, Thomas, and Dennis have developed a scalable spectral element atmospheric model that achieves a high percentage of peak on microprocessors. A semi-implicit time-stepping scheme accelerates the integration rate relative to an explicit model by a factor of two.

SI SEAM performance comparison

The MPI implementation outperforms hybrid MPI/Open MP on the IBM SP. Simulation rates have been measured for the standard shallow water equation benchmarks using up to O (105) horizontal degrees of freedom. A sustained 370 GFLOPS was achieved at NERSC IBM. This work is a finalist for the annual Gordon Bell Award announced at the annual ACM Supercomputing Conference each year.

Earth System Modeling Framework Over the last few years, the need for software infrastructure for Earth system modeling has grown increasingly apparent. Models and the computational platforms that they run on are becoming extremely complex, leading to excessive time and resources dedicated to solving computational rather than scientific problems. In September 2000, the NASA High Performance Computing and Communications (HPCC) Earth and Space Science (ESS) Project released a Cooperative Agreement Notice (CAN) entitled "Increasing Interoperability and Performance of Grand Challenge Applications in the Earth, Space, Life, and Microgravity Sciences." The NASA CAN calls for the development of an "Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF)." In response to this NASA announcement, a collaboration led by Cecelia DeLuca submitted a coordinated set of three proposals to develop an Earth System Modeling Framework. The ESMF will allow diverse scientific groups to leverage common software to solve routine computational problems, and it will provide an interface specification so groups working at different institutions and in different disciplines can generate interoperable software components. NASA has selected the proposals from this collaboration for funding, and there will be a three-year effort initiated in FY2002.

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Primary responsibility for NCAR's Mass Storage System is managed by the Mass Storage System Group (MSSG) to support part (b) of our mission. MSSG FY2001 highlights include:

SD-3 (Redwood) tape migration Between June and September 2001, the Mass Storage Systems Group (MSSG) undertook and completed the migration of approximately 75 TB of data from SD-3 (Redwood) media to newer media types. Although it held great promise when introduced in the mid-1990s, Redwood is now considered an "end-of-life" technology, and the vendor (StorageTek) has consequently imposed significant increases in maintenance costs for Redwood tape drives. The migration of this 75 TB of MSS data allowed the MSS group to decommission 10 of its Redwood drives. (The remaining two drives are used only to read secondary copies of MSS files in those rare occasions that the primary copy--stored on non-Redwood media--cannot be read.) The decommissioning of these 10 Redwood drives represents a potential savings of approximately $16,000 per month in maintenance costs. In addition, as part of this project, key users were lobbied to remove as many Redwood-resident MSS files as they could: this resulted in the removal of an estimated 9 TB of unneeded data from the MSS.

9940 media deployment As part of its ongoing commitment to make the best use of new tape technology in the Mass Storage System, MSSG also deployed 9940 media in FY2001. 9940 is a high- capacity media that uses the same recording technology as 9840 media, which has been in production in the MSS since 1999 and has proven itself to be extremely reliable. The new media has a capacity of 60 GB per cartridge. Higher capacities using the same 60-GB cartridges are planned for the next 12-18 months. In the first 16 weeks of production, over 150 TB of data were stored on 9940 media.

University of Illinois NCDM collaboration Together with Lawrence Buja of CGD, MSSG set up and hosted a "Data Space" server cluster for the National Center for Data Mining (NCDM). NCDM is part of the Laboratory for Advanced Computing at the University of Illinois at Chicago (UIC). The server cluster consists of three Linux systems providing access to climate model data produced by NCAR via the NCDM's Data Space transfer protocol. The system was showcased at SC2000, demonstrating real-time data access from the Dallas show floor to the server housed in the SCD computer room.

Network engineering and telecommunications

Primary responsibility for developing and maintaining UCAR's networking infrastructure is managed by the Network Engineering and Telecommunications Section (NETS) to support part (c) of our mission. NETS FY2001 highlights include:

Front Range GigaPOP (FRGP) The Front Range GigaPOP (FRGP) is a consortium of universities, nonprofit corporations, and government agencies that are cooperating in a regional network aggregation point called the FRGP to share the costs of Wide Area Networking (WAN) services. The current FRGP partners are the Boulder Point of Presence (BPOP), Colorado State University (CSU), CU-Boulder, CU-Denver, CU-HSC, CU- CS, CSM, DU, the University of Wyoming, and Fort Lewis College. Additional partners, including the State of Colorado and the University of Northern Colorado, are likely to join soon. There are similar gigapops throughout the U.S. There are a number

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of advantages gained by sharing services through such a gigapop. Costs for WAN services are reduced for each partner, expertise among partners can be shared, a higher level of services can be purchased than individual institutions could afford, there is more buying power among a consortium, and there are great economies of scale.

(Click image for detailed view.)

NCAR/UCAR has provided the engineering and NOC support for the FRGP, with the service costs incurred by NCAR/UCAR being shared by all members. NETS believes that the greater service and bandwidth obtained through the FRGP are important enough for NCAR/UCAR to participate and provide the engineering and NOC services. FRGP has agreed that NETS has the most qualified engineering and NOC staff to provide the very best engineering and NOC services for the FRGP.

This is a critical service for the UCAR/NCAR staff as well as all the other partners, and it has proved to be an extremely successful technical project and an excellent collaboration with the Colorado research community. The FRGP provides NCAR/UCAR's primary WAN connectivity including Abilene connectivity. For more information, see http://www.frgp.net/

Web100 Web100 is a major project. The Web100 project is an initiative proposed by NCAR, PSC, and NCSA to fix some well-known problems with the Unix (and other) operating systems that are currently inhibiting effective utilization of national high-performance networks such as vBNS and Abilene. One of the biggest problems is the current need to manually calculate the optimal bandwidth delay product to specify a TCP window size that is large enough to avoid prematurely halting data transmission between TCP acknowledgment packets.

This issue generally isn't important for LANs, but it is important for high-performance WANs. It is difficult to determine the "bandwidth" part of the product, and right now the only effective way to obtain this is to have knowledge of the network topology, which usually means consulting with a network engineer. Furthermore, most applications don't provide a means for the user to specify this information even if it was available. The Web100 Project is seeking to solve this problem and some other related ones and has received funding from the NSF for a three-year research proposal.

For more information on Web100, see http://www.web100.org/

Research data stewardship

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Primary responsibility for collecting, correcting, and distributing valuable research datasets is managed by the Data Support Section (DSS) to support part (d) of our mission. DSS FY2001 highlights include:

Upgraded data and data presentation on the Research Data web server We implemented a large-scale upgrade and improvement to the information interface for the SCD Research Data Archive website.

The new interface covers all aspects of the Data Support Section web presence. It is not only superior for the data users, but it is also easy and efficient for DSS staff to use and maintain. This information system has more than 2,500 html-formatted pages that are updated automatically. The data available continue to grow as data and metadata are routinely added by DSS staff. The new DSS web interface significantly improves researchers' ability to access and use NCAR's Research Data Archive. (Click image for detailed view.)

New additions to COADS and other ocean datasets In 2001, a major milestone for COADS was achieved. New early data sources had been recovered through data archaeology efforts around the world. These sources and other new digital sources have been added to the collection for the period prior to 1950. This update and updates from previous years now form the complete replacement and extension for Release 1 COADS (1985). The new archive now covers 1784-1997. The COADS project, a collaborative effort between NOAA/CDC, NOAA/NCDC, and NCAR/SCD, is the world's dataset for describing conditions at the surface of the ocean (air temperature, wind direction and velocity, water temperature, etc.). COADS is a critical resource for studies of climate trends and global weather interactions, as well as for data reanalysis projects.

Visualization and enabling technologies

Primary responsibility for helping researchers visualize, interact with, and understand complex geophysical data is managed by the Visualization and Enabling Technologies Section (VETS) to support part (e) of our mission. VETS FY2001 highlights include:

NCAR's new Visualization Lab Terascale visualization, collaboration, and the AccessGrid Internet and web technologies coupled with high-bandwidth networks have served as the substrate for wonderful new opportunities in scientific endeavor and collaboration. While the desktop is still the day-to-day environment of choice for the individual, group meetings are more important than ever. From research organizations to businesses to universities, there is an enhanced focus on sophisticated, technology- mediated meeting spaces that facilitate information flow and enable virtual encounters.

SCD has recently completed the development of its new Visualization Lab, a physical facility that blends visual supercomputing, virtual reality, large-screen tiled display, and advanced

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collaboration technology. Backed by an array of large-scale computational and storage resources, the lab facilitates group exploration of terascale scientific data.

Building upon the AccessGrid, a human-scale group-to-group collaboration environment, it also opens up opportunities for group participation in presentations, symposia, and workshops as well as collaborative research.

The community data portal Sustainable strategies for enabling both providers and consumers of earth system data Scientific data are at the heart of most of our research activities, and we need to share these data among ourselves and with a geographically distributed community.

Working with divisions and programs across UCAR and NCAR, SCD has initiated a forward-looking pilot project called the Community Data Portal (CDP). The CDP is targeted directly at elevating our organization's collective ability to function as a data provider with a coherent web-based presence.

During FY2001, several pilot sub-projects were undertaken, including the ACACIA ARCAS system (ACACIA), Reanalysis-2 data (SCD/DSS), CCM diagnostic tools (CGD), TIME-GCM data (HAO), vegetation/ecosystem data (VEMAP), and distributed climate data analysis (COLA). Our efforts here have been extremely well received and have now grown into the role of a formal NCAR Strategic Initiative.

The Earth System Grid In 1999, SCD joined with several DOE labs in a DOE-sponsored research project called The Earth System Grid (ESG). This effort was aimed at developing Grid-based technologies that facilitated management and high-speed access to large-scale distributed climate model data. During FY2001, we put some of the ESG technology into production operation for the PCM project, and it now supports a sustained transfer of data from NCAR to NERSC at data rates much higher than previously possible. We joined again this year with several collaborators to submit a new proposal for The Earth System Grid II. Working with Argonne National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, the University of Southern California, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, we successfully secured a new research contract to develop and deploy an operational ESG in support of terascale/petascale climate research. The project is a significant opportunity to advance research and computation, and it has already drawn substantial interest that extends into the international community.

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Community data analysis and visualization software Prior to this year, SCD has distributed NCAR Graphics and NCL on a cost-recovery basis. In FY2000, SCD management made the decision to move to an Open Source distribution model for NCAR Graphics and a "free availability" model for NCL (with Open Source planned for the future), and we began the process of implementing the decision. We actually implemented the new distribution modes this year, and since October 2000, there have been roughly 9,000 downloads of NCAR Graphics and 1,000 downloads of NCL. While it represented a significant loss of revenue for SCD, this move was extremely popular with our community and has brought many new users on board. We also continued to work with the new Weather and Research Forecast (WRF) model team to extend NCL's usefulness for the WRF community. New features included enhanced support for the increasingly popular HDF-5 format and completion of a significant portion of the development cycle for a new high-resolution map database for NCL. In a similar vein, we began the process of integrating our enhanced version of the popular Vis5D software into a new Open Source framework for community sharing, development, and usage. Complementing all of this was a substantial amount of experimental work with the scripting language Python and the development of new visualization software for educational uses under the auspices of our Visual Geophysical Exploration Environment (VGEE).

A new architecture for terascale data access, analysis, and visualization Late in the year, SCD management convened a team tasked with re-examining the resources we provide to deal with data. This included web-based data access, future efforts in data portals, research projects in distributed data, data visualization, and post-computation processing and analysis.

The strategic planning process that ensued led to the definition of a new architecture that integrates a number of functions and systems, and moves various testbed efforts (SANs, MSS Proxy) into a new production phase. The new architecture is built on the concept of large shared data objects (1 TB or more) and speaks directly to user productivity, efficient use of computational and storage resources, and the support of new efforts in data analysis and visualization.

This new effort positions SCD as a leader in providing a powerful, balanced, and-- most of all--productive environment. Acquisition of hardware and software began this year, while integration and deployment will happen in FY2002.

Assistance and support for NCAR's research community

Primary responsibility for helping researchers efficiently produce valid simulations on NCAR supercomputers is managed by the User Support Section (USS) to support part (e) of our mission. USS also supports researchers and SCD staff by providing supercomputer usage statistics and web publication services, and by supporting onsite servers, workstations, and application software at the NCAR Mesa Lab. USS FY2001 highlights include:

Extensive model code conversions facilitated by the SCD Consultants Many researchers using NCAR supercomputers run models that were designed for the parallel vector processing systems such as the Cray Research X-MP, Y-MP, C90, and J90 systems. As the last two Cray systems at NCAR are being decommissioned in

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FY2002, the code that simulates atmospheric and related physics and chemistry on these vector systems has to be converted to run on one of the newer symmetric multiprocessor architectures.

The most promising of these platforms is the IBM SP system. In the past five years, the SCD Consulting Office guided the programmers and scientists on more than 19 major community models in converting from the old architecture to the new. This radical difference in architectures requires a huge investment in programming time and effort, and with a staff of five software engineers, the Technical Consulting Group has successfully handled a shift from straightforward usage questions to more complex development and design questions in the past year.

In addition, the consultants developed extensive user documentation and organized numerous training classes and workshops to help researchers work productively on the IBM SP systems blackforest and babyblue. As of September 2001, 65% of researchers using SCD computers were performing more than 90% of their computational work on the IBM SP (blackforest) or the SGI Origin 2000 (ute) rather than the Cray computers.

Enabling infrastruture

Primary responsibility for maintaining and operating NCAR's supercomputing environment is managed by the Operations and Infrastructure Support Section (OIS) to support part (e) of our mission. OIS FY2001 highlights include:

Infrastructure upgrades to support ARCS In November 2000, OIS began to identify and upgrade those portions of the computing center infrastructure that would need to be augmented to support the new ARCS equipment. This specification of the needed infrastructure equipment was a moving target, as the possible machine configurations were in constant flux. After significant analysis, SCD identified the upper boundary of possible equipment to be delivered. OIS then determined that the existing air conditioning was sufficient, but the power distribution was not. OIS then began specifying, procuring, and installing all the necessary equipment so the facility could be ready for the ARCS delivery.

After nine months of constant work and some overtime, the power distribution system passed the startup inspection and went online the first of October, just in time for the delivery of the first wave of ARCS equipment. The project was estimated to cost slightly more than $600,000, and it came in slightly over $500,000.

These upgrades position the electrical distribution system to support the next three years of the ARCS contract, and they form the cornerstone of a solid infrastructure for SCD to continue providing reliable, production-oriented services and equipment as tools for science.

SCD portal genesis The Applications Group within OIS has started on an ambitious multi-year project to architect, implement, and deploy an application portal within SCD. This portal will provide web-based access to SCD's suite of resources and services. In addition, the portal is designed to be extensible and customizable so researchers can better manage

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the flow of information needed for their area of research. The project, while in its early stages, accomplished a great deal in the past year. The portal has moved from strictly a vision to early proof-of-concept systems. Several decisions were made, including identifying key technologies and the development approach. Currently, a preliminary job-submission utility is working, as well as an interface to some portions of the Mass Storage System. In the coming year, these early web-enabled services will be provided to researchers to solicit feedback and evolve the portal.

SCD FY2001 ASR table of contents

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https://web.archive.org/web/20040222091059/http://www.scd.ucar.edu/docs/asr2001/highlights.html[12/27/2016 2:21:28 PM] SCD FY2001 ASR - Papers and publications

Papers and publications

Publications, refereed

Kistler, R., E. Kalnay, ---, R. Jenne, ---, 2001: The NCEP/NCAR 50-Year Reanalysis: Monthly Means CD-ROM and Documentation. Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc., 2, 247-267.

Rivier, L., R. Loft, and L. Polvani, 2001: An efficient spectral dynamical core for distributed memory computers. Mon. Wea. Rev., in press.

Swarztrauber, Paul N. and S.W. Hammond, 2001: "A Comparison of Optimal FFTs on Torus and Hypercube Connected Multicomputers," Par. Comp., 27, 847-859.

Thomas, S.J. and G.L. Browning, 2001: The accuracy and efficiency of semi-implicit time-stepping for mesoscale storm dynamics. J. Atmos. Sci., 20, 3053-3063.

Thomas, S.J. and R.D. Loft, 2000: Parallel semi-implicit spectral element methods for atmospheric general circulation models. J. Sci. Comp., 4, 499-518. Papers and publications, non-refereed

Bramer, D., K. Hay, M. Marlino, D. Middleton, R. Pandya, M. Ramamurthy, T. Scheitlin, and R. Wilhelmson, 2001: The technology behind a virtual exploratorium: a resource for discovery-based learning in the geosciences. The Tenth Symposium on Education, American Meteorological Society, Albuquerque, New Mexico, January 2001.

Loft, R.D. and S.J. Thomas. Semi-implicit spectral element methods for atmospheric general circulation models. Proceedings of the Ninth ECMWF Workshop on High- Performance Computing in Meteorology, Reading, England, November 2000. Terascale Computing: The Use of Parallel Processors in Meteorology, World Scientific Publishers, Singapore.

Jenne, Roy. Observations for reanalysis. U.S.-Russia Bilateral Data Exchange Meeting, September 20, 2001, Obninsk, Russia.

Jenne, Roy. Reanalysis. Special Meeting of the Russian Weather Forecast Center, September 19, 2001, Moscow, Russia.

Jenne, Roy. Reanalysis and the Surface Cooperative Station Network. Meeting of U.S.

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State Climatologists, August 7, 2001, Omaha, Nebraska.

Pandya, R., D. Bramer, K. Hay, M. Marlino, D. Middleton, M. Ramamurthy, T. Scheitlin, and R. Wilhelmson, 2001: Using the virtual exploratorium to support inquiry-based learning in introductory geoscience courses: an ENSO example. Tenth Symposium on Education, American Meteorological Society, 2000 Albuquerque NM. January 2001.

Pandya, R, D. Bramer, K. Hay, M. Marlino, D. Middleton, M. Ramamurthy, T. Scheitlin and R. Wilhelmson, 2000: The Virtual Exploratorium: An inquiry-based learning environment for undergraduate geoscience education. Fall 2000 meeting of the American Geophysical Union, San Francisco CA. (EOS v. 18 #48, p. F300. Invited Talk.)

Thomas, S.J. and R.D. Loft. Parallel semi-implicit spectral element dynamical core for atmospheric general circulation models. Ninth annual conference of the Canadian CFD society, Waterloo, Canada, May 27-29, 2001.

SCD FY2001 ASR table of contents

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Educational activities

Colorado Computational Science Fair

For the eighth consecutive year, SCD co-hosted the Colorado Computational Science Fair (CCSF) with Colorado State University to encourage high school students to learn more about computational science. The 2001 CCSF was held on May 12. Sixty-nine students from Colorado entered 33 projects into the competition with almost all of the projects using internet connections provided by NCAR during the fair. Group and individual projects were submitted in the areas of Information Technology, Computational Science, and Robotics. Student projects in computational science were grouped for judging based on the highest level math class the student has completed. Ten researchers from industry, universities and NCAR judged the student projects and provided written feedback.

More detail is on the web at http://www.scd.ucar.edu/ois/ccsf/index.html Computing grants to classrooms

SCD continues to provide access to its supercomputers for undergraduate and graduate university classes. Computing resources are provided for students engaged in modeling and simulations requiring high performance computers, and for classes studying recently introduced architectures. SCD also provides computing resources to graduate students in the atmospheric and related sciences for their thesis research. SC2000 education program

Ginger Caldwell, USS, was the Education Program Publications Chair for the SC2000 Education Program, "A National Computational Science Leadership Program" held during the SC2000 conference in Dallas, Texas on November 4-9, 2000. After developing the proposal for this NSF-funded program in 2000, the focus in FY2001 was on the planning for the conference. Twenty-five teacher teams of four teachers each participated in this program which had significant representation from low-wealth schools. Teachers received 40 hours of training in computational biology, chemistry, and physics at the SC2000 conference. Over $1 million in grants have been awarded for this program so far with half from NSF.

SCD's participation in this national program has ensured that we are aware of the outcomes and strategies for enhancing computational science leadership among

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secondary teachers.

SCD FY2001 ASR table of contents

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Community service activities

Ethan Alpert served as a technical advisor to the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model effort, on the Data Management and Analysis subcommittee and as a member of the Common Model Infrastructure Working Group (CMIWG).

Brian Bevirt serves as a science writing mentor for the SOARS program.

Ginger Caldwell was the SC2001 Infrastructure Chair, a supercomputing conference sponsored by the IEEE Computer Society and ACM SIGARCH. She coordinates the annual Colorado Computational Science Fair held at NCAR for high school students.

Scot Colburn served on the State Commodity Internet RFP committee, the Wheatridge High School computer and networking curriculum board, and as a judge for the Boulder Valley Science Fair.

Jeff Custard serves as the chair of the Board of Directors of the Colorado Higher Education Computing Organization (CHECO).

Fred Clare continued to serve on the NCAR Library Committee.

John Clyne served as the visualization program chair for the Cray User's Group (CUG), and as the technical program chair for DOECGF 2001.

Susan Cross serves as a mentor for the SOARS program.

Rachelle Daily serves as Secretary to the Executive Board, Mass Storage Technical Committee, IEEE Computer Society. She attended and worked registration for the 18th IEEE Symposium on Mass Storage Systems in San Diego, CA. She maintained the membership list and alias for this board, and the database for the IEEE MSSTC Mailing List. She is a member of the logistics and planning team for the Computing in Atmospheric Research (CAS) meetings, sponsored by SCD and vendors. She coordinated meeting, catering and registration details for the international CAS 2001 Workshop, scheduled for October 2001 in Annecy, France.

George Fuentes is a member of IBM's SP-XXL Group. The SP-XXL group is comprised of IBM SP installations that are 128 nodes and greater. The SP-XXL group meets three times a year and provides technical input to IBM on new functionality that should be added to the AIX and PSSP operating system product toolset. He is a member of Compaq's AlphaServer User Group. The AlphaServer User Group meets three times a year and provides technical input to Compaq on new functionality that should be added to the Digital Tru64 and AlphaServer SC operating system product

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toolset.

Pam Gillman is a member of Compaq's AlphaServer User Group.

Roy Jenne negotiates data exchanges with Russia under the auspices of the U.S. State Department. Each year participants agree on a set of tasks and datasets, then prepare a document listing what has been accomplished with plans for the next year. Jenne has been leading this multi-agency effort for the U.S. since 1982. He also serves on the panel for the NCEP 20-year regional reanalysis project.

Steve Hammond is a member of the Technology Advisory Panel for the Artic Region Supercomputing Center located at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks. He was also a member of the organizing committee of the international workshop, Computers in Atmospheric Sciences 2001.

Gene Harano was on the Program Committee for the 18th IEEE Symposium on Mass Storage Systems in cooperation with the 9th NASA Goddard Conference on Mass Storage Systems and Techonologies. The conference was held in San Diego, CA, April 17-20, 2001. He is also a member of the Program Committee for the 10th NASA Goddard Conference on Mass Storage Systems and Technologies in cooperation with the 18th IEEE Symposium on Mass Storage Systems, which is scheduled for April 15- 18, 2002 in College Park, MD. Program committee work began in FY2001 for this meeting. Gene is also a member of the Arctic Region Supercomputer Center (ARSC) Technology Panel. This technology panel assists the ARSC in assessing technology trends relevant to the ARSC.

Al Kellie participated in activities of the NCEP Advisory Panel Special Review Team. He is a member of the Unidata Policy Committee, the External Advisory Board to the IBM Deep Computing Institute, and the IBM eServer Advisory Council for UNIX. Al served as the NCAR contact for the Ocean Observatory Steering Committee held at NCAR this year. He co-chairs the Computing in Atmospheric Sciences (CAS) workshops, which are sponsored by SCD and vendors. (The next meeting is scheduled for October 2001 in Annecy, France).

Jeff Kuehn served on the steering committee for the Parallel Tools Consortium and helped to plan last year's annual meeting. Kuehn was the deputy chair of the Tutorials Program for the SC2001 Conference.

Lynda Lester sponsors the Boulder-based Web Designers and Developers group.

Marla Meehl serves on the Westnet Steering Committee, is chair of the Front Range GigaPop Management Committee (FMC), and is a member of the Quilt Steering Committee.

Don Middleton served as a co-PI on the NSF-funded Visual Geophysical Exploration Environment project, as a member of the Alliance Environmental Hydrology team, as an advisor to the NSF-funded Exploring Time project, as a member of Sun Microsystem's Visualization Advisory Council, as a program chair for the AMS Electronic Theater, as co-PI for the Earth System Grid and Earth System Grid II projects, and as co-PI for the Unidata-led Thematic Realtime Distributed Data Servers (THREDDS) project.

Bernard T. O'Lear is a member of the IEEE Computer Society Mass Storage Technical Committee Executive Committee. He co-chairs the Computing in Atmospheric (CAS) workshops, which are sponsored by SCD and vendors. (The next meeting is scheduled for October 2001 in Annecy, France).

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Pete Peterson served as Chair, SOARS Steering Committee, and as a mentor for the SOARS program.

Tim Scheitlin provided the keynote speech about the broader applications of computer graphics for the Colorado Computational Science Fair.

Pete Siemsen served as the co-chair of the Front Range GigaPop Technical Committee (FTC).

Steve Thomas served as a reviewer for the following journals: Atmosphere-Ocean, Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, Journal of Computational Physics, and Monthly Weather Review. He is also a member of the NCAR Geophysical Turbulence Program (GTP), the NCAR Scientist I Appointments committee, and a reviewer of NCAR ASP Post-doc Appointments. He was also a co-organizer of the workshop: Adaptive and high-order methods with applications in turbulence, NCAR Geophysical Turbulence Program, February 4-6, 2002.

VETS staff Don Middleton, Jeff Boote, John Clyne, and Tim Scheitlin provide an ongoing community service at conferences and for NCAR visitors by explaining and demonstrating state-of-the-art scientific visualization techniques and technology in the forms of Technical presentations and Education and outreach presentations. As the new Visualization Lab neared completion, they also began providing interactive virtual conferencing services to the scientific community via the Vislab's function as the NCAR AccessGrid node.

SCD FY2001 ASR table of contents

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