Workshop on Weather Ready Nation: Science Imperatives for Severe Thunderstorm Research, Held 24-26 April, 2012 in Birmingham AL
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Workshop on Weather Ready Nation: Science Imperatives for Severe Thunderstorm Research, Held 24-26 April, 2012 in Birmingham AL Sponsored by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and National Science Foundation Final Report Edited by Michael K. Lindell, Texas A&M University and Harold Brooks, National Severe Storms Laboratory Hazard Reduction & Recovery Center Texas A&M University College station TX 77843-3137 17 September 2012 Executive Summary The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Science Foundation (NSF) workshop sponsored a workshop entitled Weather Ready Nation: Science Imperatives for Severe Thunderstorm Research on 24-26 April, 2012 in Birmingham Alabama. Prior to the workshop, teams of authors completed eight white papers, which were read by workshop participants before arriving at the conference venue. The workshop’s 63 participants—representing the disciplines of civil engineering, communication, economics, emergency management, geography, meteorology, psychology, public health, public policy, sociology, and urban planning—participated in three sets of discussion groups. In the first set of discussion groups, participants were assigned to groups by discipline and asked to identify any research issues related to tornado hazard response that had been overlooked by the 2011 Norman Workshop report (UCAR, 2012) or the white papers (see Appendix A). In the second set of discussion groups, participants were distributed among interdisciplinary groups and asked to revisit the questions addressed in the disciplinary groups, identify any interdependencies across disciplines, and recommend criteria for evaluating prospective projects. In the third set of discussion groups, participants returned to their initial disciplinary groups and were asked to identify and describe at least three specific research projects within the research areas defined by their white paper(s) and to assess these research projects in terms of the evaluation criteria identified in the interdisciplinary groups. Each set of group discussions was followed by a plenary session in which a group member provided a brief oral report on the major findings from her or his group’s discussion. The major issues identified within each of the areas defined by the eight white papers were consistent with the recommendations in reports from previous workshops and committees. However, the recommendations from the Birmingham workshop were more detailed and led to 12 specific research recommendations—a) Physical Understanding for Improved Forecasts, b) Wind Effects on Buildings, c) Forecasters’ Construction of Warning Polygons, d) Effects of False Alarms on Warning Recipients, e) Effects of Warning Message Content and Warning Context on Population Response, f) Laboratory and Web Experiments on Warning Messages, g) Antecedents of Household and Business Tornado Preparedness, h) Preparedness and Response by Vulnerable Populations, i) Pre-Impact Planning for Post- Impact Community Recovery, j) Tornado Mitigation Adoption, k) Contingent Valuation of Tornado Warning Parameters, and l) Social Science Short Course for Weather Forecasters. Each of these proposed projects is described in terms of its rationale, expected benefits, scope, duration, staffing and budget, and probability of near-term payoff. In addition, the workshop participants echoed the recommendations of previous workshops and committees in recommending an increase in the number of social scientists who work closely with NWS meteorologists at all levels of the agency. Social scientists can contribute to many aspects of the NWS mission—from staffing, training, and job design all the way through the design of warning messages and the assessment of community weather resilience. Their contributions will be most effective if they are in daily contact with NWS staff ranging from forecast meteorologists to senior administrators. i Table of Contents Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 1 Workshop Activities ..................................................................................................................................... 1 Research Agendas From Previous Workshops ............................................................................................. 2 Research Issues ............................................................................................................................................. 4 Organizational Recommendations ................................................................................................................ 7 Research Recommendations ......................................................................................................................... 8 References ................................................................................................................................................... 23 White Paper 1: Physical Understanding for Improved Forecasts Yvette Richardson ............................................................................................................................. A-1 White Paper 2: Current Challenges in Tornado Forecast and Warning Greg Carbin, Pamela Heinselman and David Stensrud ...................................................................... A-9 White Paper 3: Household Preparedness and Mitigation Linda Bourque .................................................................................................................................. A-17 White Paper 4: Individual/Household Behavioral Response Michael K. Lindell, Dan S. Sutter and Joseph E. Trainor ................................................................ A-27 White Paper 5: Population Segments with Disabilities Laura M. Stough and Christopher B. Mayhorn ................................................................................ A-36 White Paper 6: Pre-Event Planning for Post-Event Recovery Brenda Phillips ................................................................................................................................. A-51 White Paper 7: Economic Analysis of Tornado Warning Systems Dan S. Sutter, Jamie Kruse, Jeffrey K. Lazo, Erwann Michel-Kerjan and Kevin Simmons ........... A-56 White Paper 8: Hazard Mitigation (Safety Rooms and Shelters) Marc Levitan .................................................................................................................................... A-65 Workshop Executive Committee ............................................................................................................ A-72 Workshop Co-Chairs .............................................................................................................................. A-72 Workshop Participants ............................................................................................................................ A-73 ii Introduction The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Science Foundation Workshop sponsored a workshop entitled Weather Ready Nation: Science Imperatives for Severe Thunderstorm Research on 24-26 April, 2012 in Birmingham Alabama. Prior to the workshop, teams of authors completed eight white papers, each of which was approximately five single-spaced pages. These topics were 1) Physical Understanding for Improved Forecasts, 2) Forecast and Warning Process, 3) Individual/Household Behavioral Response, 4) Population Segments with Disabilities, 5) Household Emergency Preparedness, 6) Pre-Impact Planning for Disaster Recovery, 7) Economic Analysis of Tornado Warning Systems, and 8) Hazard Mitigation (Safety Rooms and Shelters). Each white paper, which was produced in approximately six weeks, briefly summarized the state of the science in that area and made some preliminary research recommendations. All eight papers were distributed before the workshop so participants would have the basic background information about each area that they would need for productive discussions of interdisciplinary issues. This allowed the participants to devote two full days to small group discussions, presentation of group summary reports, and plenary discussion of the group summary reports. Workshop Activities The workshop had 63 participants representing the disciplines of civil engineering, communication, economics, emergency management, geography, meteorology, psychology, public health, public policy, sociology, and urban planning. The workshop began on Tuesday morning with a plenary session involving a welcome by Dr. Kathryn D. Sullivan, a summary of Norman Workshop by Steven Koch, and self-introductions by the participants. After a short break, participants reassembled in six breakout groups that corresponded roughly to the eight white paper topics. Because of limitations on the number of groups and the small number of participants who specialized in the areas corresponding to White Papers 4, 6, and 8 (population segments with disabilities, pre-impact recovery planning, and hazard mitigation), participants in these three areas were combined into a single group. The six groups were asked to discuss the Norman Report (http://www.joss.ucar.edu/events/2011/weather_ready/information.html) and their group’s white paper(s), identify neglected issues and research needs within the research areas defined by their white paper(s), and prepare a ten minute plenary presentation summarizing their group’s discussion and