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The Special Risks Report The Special Risks Report April 2019 casework 2 global kidnapping trends 3 africa 4 americas 5 asia and pacific 6 middle east and north africa 7 focus on china 8 The Special Risks Report Casework January - March 2019 Location of cases Breakdown of cases 30% Threat 3% Hostage 26% Threat extortion 3% International problem 21% Kidnap 2% Missing person 8% Cyber 2% Bomb Number of cases per country 5% Detention 18 - Mexico | 8 - USA | 4 - Venezuela | 3 - Kenya | 2 - Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Nigeria, South Africa | 1 - Armenia, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, China, Colombia, Gabon, Guatemala, Honduras, Italy, New Caledonia, New Zealand, Singapore, Spain, United Kingdom, Vietnam, Yemen In the event of a kidnap or another special risks crisis covered by Hiscox, including a detention, extortion or threat, clients will benefit from Control Risks’ services as part of their insurance policy. Since its foundation in 1975, Control Risks has advised clients on the resolution of more than 3,570 cases of kidnap and other special risks crises in 144 countries, with more than 51,900 person-days aggregate duration. Control Risks has a full time team of Response Consultants available for immediate deployment in response to a covered crisis anywhere in the world as well as a team of ‘handholders’ located at Control Risks’ 37 offices worldwide. For more information about Control Risks please visit:www.controlrisks.com Hiscox is the world’s largest provider of specialist kidnap, detention and extortion insurance. Hiscox clients include multinational companies operating in high risk regions of the world, key executives working in commercially sensitive positions and individuals whose wealth or fame may attract the attention of criminals. Hiscox kidnap and ransom underwriters - based in Guernsey, France, Germany, the US, and at Lloyds of London - are the most experienced in the field. Our knowledge of the sector enables us to make quick decisions on cover, no matter how unusual the request. Copyright © Control Risks – Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of this document 2 The Special Risks Report Global Kidnapping Trends January - March 2019 Key trends: open source Perpetrator types Incidents involving local and foreign nationals 100 % 80% 17% 3% 2% 60% 32% 2% Europe & CIS MENA Asia Pacific 8% 29% 1% 40% Americas 39% Sub-Saharan Africa 20% 22% Region Local nationals Foreign nationals 0% a MENA Americas Asia and EuropePacific and CIS ub-Saharan Afric S 53% 92% 96% 29 Criminal of abductions of abductions of global victims resolved in less sectors happened in were local affected transit than 7 days nationals Islamist extremist Other armed groups Control Risks maintains a dedicated team of special risks analysts who track kidnap-for-ransom and other extortive crime trends around the world. The five analysts carry out research in multiple languages, including English, French, Spanish, German, Portuguese, Arabic and Hebrew. They maintain a database of cases believed to be the largest commercial database of its kind, currently containing details of more than 56,800 kidnaps for ransom. The team provides analytical support to deployed consultants on live kidnap-for-ransom cases. Using their understanding of local kidnap dynamics they are able to help predict the likely perpetrators of a specific incident, their motivations for carrying out the abduction as well as providing tactical information about the average length of cases and typical concessions required for release. They also write all kidnap analysis on an online platform brought to assureds by Hiscox called Global Risk Data. In addition, the team is able to provide bespoke kidnap consulting analysis tailored to clients’ individual exposures. Copyright © Control Risks – Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of this document 3 The Special Risks Report Africa KEY DEVELOPMENTS • The high-profile kidnap of a US national in westernUganda near the border with Congo (DRC) serves as a reminder of the capability and intent of Congo (DRC)-based armed groups and criminals to conduct cross-border kidnaps • The expansion of rural kidnapping by dahalo bandits continues in many of Madagascar’s regions, with Betsiboka Region particularly affected in the last quarter • The deteriorating security situation in northern Nigeria has produced a spike in the kidnapping rates in Zamfara and Katsina states, and several kidnaps of foreigners have been recorded The abduction of a US tourist and her local guide on 2 April highlighted the kidnapping-for-ransom threat along Uganda’s border with Congo (DRC). Four armed men stopped a car carrying the victims and two Canadian tourists in Queen Elizabeth National Park. The latter were left behind by the kidnappers. The two victims were held for five days before being released, reportedly following a negotiated settlement. Initial media reports suggested a USD 500,000 ransom demand was made, but there was no mention of a settlement amount. Further kidnap attempts on the Ugandan side of the shared border are likely, given that kidnapping-for-ransom is a central revenue stream for armed groups operating in the province of North Kivu. The Ugandan side is frequented by large numbers of foreign tourists and many international NGOs are also present, both representing attractive targets for kidnappers. In Madagascar, a spate of abductions by armed bandits since the beginning of the year demonstrated the growing threat of kidnapping in Betsiboka Region, with the trend already well-established in neighbouring regions. Control Risks has recorded several multi-victim kidnaps in Betsiboka Region since the beginning of 2019, including an incident in mid-February in which armed dahalo bandits abducted four locals in Tsaratanana. Dahalo bandits previously abducted a woman of South Asian descent in the town, as well as a group of mine workers in the wider area in July 2018. Dahalo bandits continue to present the biggest threat to foreign personnel or tourists during road movements in rural and semi-rural areas. They use roadside ambushes as a favoured tactic, and there is potential for armed robberies to evolve into kidnaps if the bandits consider the occupants of a vehicle likely to fetch a cash ransom. A series of kidnaps of foreign nationals in northern Nigeria occurred amid an increase in incidents in several states. Kidnapping rates have been rising steadily in the states of the Middle Belt and northern Nigeria since 2017, driven by increased levels of banditry and inter- communal strife. This was particularly the case in neighbouring Katsina and Zamfara states, which in 2018 accounted for 10% of all kidnaps in the country, according to our data. In the past six months, Control Risks has recorded kidnaps of Lebanese, German and Chinese nationals in northern Nigeria. Foreign nationals remain highly visible in urban and rural areas of northern Nigeria, with kidnapping gangs able to rely on local intelligence to locate potential victims and plan abductions. Most of the kidnaps of foreigners recorded in northern Nigeria in the past year occurred when the victims were at an outdoor worksite – including road works, quarries and construction sites – or in transit. The presence of armed bandits in many areas of northern Nigeria and the relative impunity with which they operate ensures that the threat of kidnapping will persist. 53% 92% 15 of abductions of abductions sectors happened in resolved in less affected transit than 7 days Copyright © Control Risks – Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of this document 4 The Special Risks Report Americas KEY DEVELOPMENTS • Nuevo Leon will remain one of the worst affected states in Mexico for kidnapping-for-ransom • Despite efforts by authorities, tiger kidnapping will remain a threat in Brazil’s Minas Gerais state • Rise in telephone extortion incidents highlights ongoing threat to Chinese nationals in the US Nuevo Leon remains one of Mexico’s kidnapping-for-ransom hotspots, accounting for over 10% of all incidents recorded by Control Risks in Mexico in 2018. In 2018, 26 incidents were recorded in the state, a fall from the 35 incidents reported in 2017, according to the National System for Public Security (SNSP). However, the majority of incidents go unreported to the authorities and the actual figure is likely to be much higher. Due to the prevalence of the main drivers of kidnapping-for-ransom and the permissive security environment in the state, Nuevo Leon will continue to be a flashpoint for the crime in Mexico. The abduction of an 18-year-old woman on 24 March underscored the HIGH kidnapping risk in the state. Kidnappers abducted the victim from her home, demonstrating the targeted nature of the crime. They demanded a ransom payment of MXN 200,000 (USD 10,500) for her safe release. The victim was found tied to a tree on the side of a nearby road in the early hours of 25 March. It was unknown if a ransom payment had been made. Despite numerous arrests of members of three different groups involved in tiger kidnaps in Brazil’s Minas Gerais state, the threat will continue to grow as criminals look to capitalise on the lucrative nature of the crime. Groups typically target bank managers, though incidents have been recorded in which the perpetrators have targeted bank treasurers, petrol (gas) station managers and business owners. Any business with large sums of money or valuables onsite is a potential target for gangs engaging in the crime. According to Control Risks’ records, Minas Gerais state accounted for more than twice the number of incidents than any other state in the country in 2018, though incidents were also recorded in Sao Paulo, Pernambuco, Bahia, Maranhao and Piaui. The crime will continue to pose a threat in the 12-month outlook, despite the authorities making occasional arrests and sporadically disbanding groups engaging in the crime, as previous arrests have not resulted in a significant reduction in the number of incidents in the region.
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